Abdul Basit
Associate Research Fellow A(RF)
International Centre for Political Violence and
Terrorism Research (ICPVTR), RSIS
Nanyang Technological University, Singapore
18 February 2015

:
• What is the Islamic State of Iraq and Sham (ISIS)?
i.
Background. .
ii.
Militant Islamist Groups Allied with ISIS.
iii.
Foreign Fighters in ISIS Ranks.
iv.
No. of Foreign Fighters.
v.
Latest Updates of Foreign Fighters.
• ISIS Influence in South Asia: i.
Trends in South Asia ii. Why South Asia?
iii. Three Broad Reactions to ISIS Influence by Islamist Militant Groups.
iv. ISIS Support Base in India.
v. ISIS Cell in Af-Pak.
vi. ISIS Four-pronged Strategy for South Asia.
vii. Terrorism Consortium in South Asia.
viii.3 Models of Jihad in South Asia.
ix. AQIS vs ISIS.
x. What does it all mean for South Asia?

:
• Will ISIS pick a bone with Pakistan given the fact that Pakistan is not part of the US-led anti ISIS coalition?
•
Is the group or its local affiliates capable of doing it?
•
What is the magnitude of ISIS footprint in South Asia, in general, and
Pakistan in particular?
•
How the South Asian Islamist Militant Organizations have reacted to ISIS
Growing Influence?
•
What does it all mean for South Asia, in general, and Pakistan in particular?

•
The most powerful and wealthy Islamist Militant Group.
• New-school of Jihadist setting new trends of the modern terrorist iconography.
•
Post 9/11, the only group to occupy a territory size of a of a state.
• Financially self-sufficient
•
Possesses the largest number of foreign fighters in its rank, including females.
• A contestant and claimant to leadership of Global Jihad.
:

:
(1). Jamaat Al-Tawhid Wal-Jihad (1999-
2004)
(2). Al-Qaeda in the Land of Two
Rivers ( 2004-06)
(3). Majlis Shura Al-Mujahideen
(MSM, 2006)
(4). Islamic State of Iraq (2006-13)
(5). Islamic State of Iraq and Al-Sham (ISIS, 2013-
Present)

Indonesia
Abu Bakar Bashir
Libya
• Ansar Al-Shariah
• Islamic Youth Shura Council
Afghanistan
Salafai Taliban Islamic
State
Uzbekistan
Islamic Movement of
Uzbekistan (IMU)
Philippines
Moro Islamic Liberation
Front (MILF)
Nigeria
Boko Haram
Pakistan
• Jandullah
•
Shahidulah Shahid Group
•
Tehrik-e-Khilafat
•
Jamia Hafsa Students
Egypt
• Gamah Islamiyah
• Ansar Bait-ul-Maqdis

•
Over 15,000 foreign fighters from 80 countries.
•
Second largest congregation of foreign fighters since the
Afghan Jihad (1979-88).
•
Five largest contributors of foreign fighters are; Jordan
(2,089), Saudi Arabia (1,016), Tunisia (970), Lebanon
(890), and Libya (556).
•
The number of fighters from Western Europe is around
1,937, 17 percent of foreign fighters population.
•
The most important regions for foreign fighter recruitment outside Western Europe and the Middle East are the Balkans and the countries of the former Soviet
Union.
Source: http://soufangroup.com/wpcontent/uploads/2014/10/Foreign-fighters-flow-to-Syria.jpg

•
The daily flow of foreign fighters has gone down from the peak 80-100 per day to a low of 10-15.
•
On 1 December 2014, an Indian foreign fighter, Areeb
Majeed, who returned to India revealed he cleaned toilets for
ISIS.
• “ On 18 December 2014, ISIS executed 150 female in Iraq’s
Fallujah province for refusing to accept jihad marriage.”
•
(Source: http://www.teaparty.org/isis-executes-150-womengirls-pregnant-refusing-become-sex-slaves-marry-jihadists-
73127/ )
“ I cleaned toilets for ISIS in Iraq.”
Source: http://english.alarabiya.net/en/News/middleeast/2014/12/01/I-cleaned-toilets-for-ISIS-reveals-exfighter.html
•
On 20 December 2014, ISIS executed 100 fighters for trying to flee Syria.

•
The national governments downplay the threat while certain pressure/ groups and vested interests overexaggerate the threat.
•
The trend varies across South Asia countries.
•
In Afghanistan and Pakistan it is confined to Salafist and
Panjpiri pockets of militant groups.
•
In India, it is lone-wolf behavior of self-radicalized individuals and group differential behavior.
•
In Bangladesh most of the individuals from the
Bangladeshi diaspora community have joined ISIS ranks.
Pakistan Interior Minister Chaudhry Nisar Ali
Khan rules out the presence of the Islamic
State (IS) in the country.
Source: http://www.dawn.com/news/1143943
Source: http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2014
-10-14/news/55014486_1_jammu-and-kashmirisis-omar-abdullah

No. of Foreign Fighters who Joined ISIS from South Asia
:
Source: http://www.slideshare.net/RahulBhonsle/estimate-south-asian-fighters-insyria-and-iraq

•
Ideological Factor : (Black Flags of Khurasan)
•
Social Factor: Conducive environment for incubation of Extremist Ideologies and Physical (ungoverned spaces) and Social Sanctuaries (youth vulnerable to extremist propaganda).
•
Political Factor: Al-Qaeda’s Power-base.

•
Open Rejection: ( Al-Qaeda, Afghan Taliban, Kashmir Jihadi
Groups and TTP Core)
•
Jumping ISIS Bandwagon : (Jandullah, Tehrik-e-Khilafat and
Shahidullah Shahid Group)
•
Fence-sitting Behaviour: (Hizb-e-Islami Gulbadin and Jamatul-Ahrar etc. )

•
Lone Wolf and self-radicalized individuals: Mahdi Masroor
(Social Media Operative) and Areeb Majeed who went to Iraq and later escaped
• No groups-level presence
•
Ansar al-Tawhid Fi-Bilad Al-Hind has pledged allegiance to ISIS
• The activities are restricted to social media activism, flags and pro-ISIS banners
“I’m a soldier, I have no regrets”
Source: http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/Im-a-soldier-Ihave-no-regrets-says-ISIS-Twitter-handler-Mehdi-Masroor-
Biswas/articleshow/45567376.cms
•
For the first time, Indian Muslims have responded to an extremist-terrorist organization in such a way
• The trends in South, Central and North India are uniform
“ I cleaned toilets for ISIS in Iraq.”
Source: http://english.alarabiya.net/en/News/middleeast/2014/12/01/I-cleaned-toilets-for-ISIS-reveals-exfighter.html
:

SAEED KHAN (ORAKZAI)
Khalid
Mansour
(Hangu,
KP)
Gul
Zamam
(Khyber
Agency)
Dawlat
( Kurram
Agency)
Sa’ad al-
Emarati
( Sa’ad Abi
Waqas
– Logar province,
Afghanistan)
Muhsin
(Kunar province,
Afghanistan)
Omar
Mansour
(Masjid
Ahmar)
Jawad
( Abtalul-
Islam )
Talha
(Murat)
Saeed
Khan
(Orakzai
Agency)
Obeidaullah
Peshawari
(Tawhid wal
Jihad -
Peshawar)
Mufti
Hassan
(Peshawar) http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Map_showing_NWFP_and_FATA.
png

ISIS-Caliphate

•
Consolidate existing network, then expand
•
Contain ISIS
•
Support Affiliates
•
Exploit Local Issues
•
Exploit Brand
•
Expand Network
•
Look for new recruits
& affiliates
•
Indoctrinate through
Propaganda

What does ISIS threat mean for South Asia?
•
Polarized and complicated militancy-landscape.
•
Ideological and operational transformations among the Jihadist groups.
•
New narratives and deeper penetration of the Salafi Jihadist Ideology.
•
Cyber radicalization.
•
Difficulties in Lawn enforcement and security maintenance.