Missouri Weather/Climate Trends
Pat Guinan
Extension\State Climatologist
University of Missouri
Commercial Agriculture Program
Water Management Strategies for Drought Mitigation
and Sustainable Agricultural Production
December 13-14, 2012, Bradford Farm, Columbia, MO
The climate system is extremely
complex with numerous factors
that drive it: atmosphere, ocean,
land, ice, solar and human.
GLOBAL ANNUAL TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES
(1895-2011)
10 yr. running mean
Departure from Normal (°F)
1977
Using long-term average: 1901-2000
Warm Year
Cool Year
Data Source: NOAA/Missouri Climate Center
REGIONAL ANNUAL TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES
(1895-2012*)
10 yr. running mean
Long-term average: 1895-2010
Departure from Normal (°F)
1921
1934
1931
2012
1954
1924
1912
1917
1979
Warm Year
Cool Year
1993
*assuming average Dec temperatures
Data Source: Missouri Climate Center/NOAA
Major Presidential Declared Disasters
(2006-2011)
NWS
Groundhog Day
Feb 2011
Blizzard
P. Guinan
Southeast Missouri
Apr 2011
Flooding
USACE
1. Oklahoma
2. Missouri
3. Nebraska
4. Kansas
5. Iowa
6. New York
7. South Dakota
8. Arkansas
9. Tennessee
10. Illinois
25
20
17
15
14
14
14
13
13
12
Good Friday EF-4
Tornado Apr 2011
NWS
May 2011
Joplin EF-5 Tornado
Northwest
Missouri
Flooding
Summer 2011
P. Guinan
2012 dominated by unprecedented warmth
and extreme drought…
E. Cole
E. Cole
E. Cole
C. Starbuck
P. Guinan
P. Guinan
K. Graham
U.S. National Weather Service
Cooperative Weather Station Network
“The Backbone of the Nation’s Climate Records”
National Weather Service Cooperative Network
NOAA
Unprecedented warmth in 2012…
Missouri Monthly Temperature Departure From Average*
Jan 2008 – Nov 2012
Long-term average: 1895-2010
2011-12: 3rd warmest winter
2012: 1st warmest March
2012: 1st warmest spring
2012: 1st warmest Jan-Nov
2012: warmest year on record?
2008
2009
Highest above normal departure for
any month since 1895 (1,415 months)
2010
2011
2012
3rd warmest winter last year…
Missouri Average Winter Temperature
(Dec-Jan-Feb, 1895-2012*)
5 yr. running mean
Long-term average: 32.4°F
1931-32
2011-12
’91-92 ’99-00
’01-02
1904-05 1917-18
1935-36
1977-78 1978-79
Warm Period
Cool Period
*The winter of 2012 is defined as Dec 2011 and Jan, Feb 2012
Unprecedented warmth in 2012…
Missouri Average Spring Temperature
(Mar-Apr-May, 1895-2012)
Long-term average: 54.3°F
5 yr. running mean
2012
Warm Period
Cool Period
1977
1946
1924
1947
1960
1991
2007
1983
1984
Data Source: Missouri Climate Center/NOAA
Late Fall/Early Spring Vulnerability
Easter Freeze, April 3-9, 2007
11/11/11
Armistice Day Blizzard & Freeze
Nov 11, 1940
We dodged a bullet this year…
Missouri Average March Temperature
(1895-2012)
+14.1°!!
Median Date of Last Spring Frost (≤ 32°F)
(1971-2000)
Data Source: Missouri Climate Center/NOAA
Median Date of Last Spring Frost (≤ 32°F)
Long term (1895-2010)
vs.
Past 3 decades (1981-2010)
4/19
4/16
4/30
4/21
4/20
4/18
4/17
4/13
4/27
4/09
4/18
4/30
4/14
4/21
4/13
4/19
4/09
4/26
4/12
4/11
4/09
4/08
4/14
4/26
4/11
4/22
4/06
4/15
4/12
4/12
4/06
4/10
4/12
4/18
4/08
4/11
4/19
In general, the last spring freeze date is occurring 3-4 days earlier…
4/17
Unprecedented warmth in 2012…
Missouri Average Summer Temperature
(Jun-Jul-Aug, 1895-2012)
Long-term average: 75.6°F
5 yr. running mean
1934
1936
1901
1954
1915
1927
3 hot
summers
1980
1992
1950
2004
Warm Period
Cool Period
Data Source: Missouri Climate Center/NOAA
Unprecedented warmth in 2012…
Missouri Average Autumn Temperature
(Sep-Oct-Nov, 1895-2012)
1931
1963
1938
1971
1951
1896
Warm Period
Cool Period
1998
1996
1993
1976
Data Source: Missouri Climate Center/NOAA
Median Date of First Fall Frost (≤ 32°F)
Long term (1895-2010)
vs.
Past 30 years (1981-2010)
10/16
10/12
10/11
10/11
10/12
10/12
10/12
10/21
10/12
10/24
10/18
10/10
10/19
10/20
10/19
10/19
10/18
10/21
10/20
10/10
10/20
10/13
10/23
10/17
10/23
10/20
10/24
10/19
10/26
10/20
10/24
10/18
10/25
10/16
10/13
In general, there has been little change in the first fall frost date…
10/13
2012 will be warmest year on record…
Missouri Annual Average Temperature
(1895-2012)
Assuming normal
5 yr. running mean
temps in December
Long-term average: 54.6°F
2012
1921 19311938 1954
1904
1924
1917
1895
Warm Period
Cool Period
1979
Data Source: Missouri Climate Center/NOAA
From one extreme to another…
Missouri Monthly Precipitation Departure From Average*
Jan 2008 – Nov 2012
Long-term average: 1895-2010
Only 2 months in
2012 w/ above
normal precip,
Mar and Sep
Extreme
Drought
Extreme Wetness
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Missouri Jan-Nov Average Precipitation
(1895-2012)
Long-term average: 38.71”
1898
1927
1936
1901
1973
1993
19761980
1953
2008
Driest Jan-Nov
since 1980
Data Source: Missouri Climate Center/NOAA
Missouri Annual Average Precipitation
(1895-2012)
5 yr. running mean
Long-term average: 41.14”
1898
1901
1927
Wet Period
Dry Period
1993 2008
1973
1963 19761980
1953
Assuming average
December precip:
11th driest year
Data Source: Missouri Climate Center/NOAA
Number of Daily Rainfall Events ≥ 1 inch in Missouri
1895-2012*
Average: 303 events
10 yr. running mean
2008
1927
1973
1901
1930
1952
1953
1976
1993
2009
*thru
12/13
Maximum drought intensity…
Missouri May-Aug Average Precipitation
(1895-2012)
1915
Long-term average: 16.93”
1981
1935 1951
1913
1901
7.65”
9.61”
1953
1936
6.47”
8.24”
1993
Wet Period
Dry Period
2012
8.22”
3rd driest
Data Source: Missouri Climate Center/NOAA
In addition to lack of rainfall in 2012, drought rapidly evolved due to
additional factors …
U.S. Drought Monitor, Missouri
May 1, 2012
July 31, 2012
Drought Severity categories:
http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/
Aug 28, 2012
1. Persistent above normal temperatures…
Missouri Monthly Temperature Departure From Average*
Jan 2011 – Nov 2012
*Long-term average: 1895-2010
Record
Warmth
2011
2012
Extension Commercial Agriculture
Automated Weather Station Network
Real-time
(Updates every 5 minutes)
30 weather stations in the
network, 20 of them real-time.
agebb.missouri.edu/weather/stations/index.htm
agebb.missouri.edu/weather/stations/index.htm
2. Unusually low atmospheric moisture content…
Daily Vapor Pressure Deficits for May-August
2012 vs. Average
Columbia, Missouri, Sanborn Field
Daily VPD for 2012
Daily avg VPD (1995-2012)
Date
climate.missouri.edu
2 cont. Unusually low atmospheric moisture content…
Average Summer Dew Point Temperature
Columbia, MO Jun-Jul-Aug, 1948-2012
1993 1995
2010
2011
1949
1967 1972
1975
1976
2012
2nd lowest
3. Unusually high number of sunny days…
Daily Solar Radiation for May-August 2012 vs. Average
Columbia, Missouri – Sanborn Field
Daily solar for 2012
Daily avg solar (1995-2012)
Cloudy Days: <14 MJ/m2
Date
climate.missouri.edu
High temp, low RH, high solar translated to large evaporative losses…
Class A Pan Evaporation Apr-Sep (in.)
HARC*, New Franklin, MO, 1956-2012
1980
1956
1959
Highest water
loss in 24 years
1988
2012
1993
2008-11
*Horticulture and Agroforestry Research Center
…and unusually high evapotranspiration rates…
Columbia, Missouri Daily Short Crop Evapotranspiration (in.)
May-August 2012
6/5/2012
6/5/2012
Total May-Aug 2012 Evapotranspiration was 25.80 in.
Total May-Aug Precipitation at Columbia was 4.11 in.
Date
climate.missouri.edu
2012 is a “young drought” when compared to others…
Missouri Monthly Precipitation Departure From Average*
Jan 2008 – Nov 2012
Long-term average: 1895-2010
Jan 2008-Nov 2012 departure from average: +26.19”
27 out of 59 months below normal, 46%
Wettest year
on record
9.42” deficit
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
A multi-year drought…
Missouri Monthly Precipitation Departure From Average*
Jan 1952 – Dec 1956
Long-term average: 1895-2010
The 1952-56 period is the driest 5 consecutive years on record for Missouri.
Jan 1952- Dec 1956 departure from normal: - 48.09 inches!!
45 out of 60 months below normal, 75%
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
First significant dent in drought comes from Isaac…
Isaac remnants in Missouri
Radar estimated precip
8/31/2012
1 to 5+ inches
Post Isaac precipitation events…
Accumulated Precipitation (in.)
Sep 2, 2012 to Dec 12, 2012
1-1.5”
3-4”
<1
4-5”
5 - 7.5”
7.5 - 10”
10-12.5”
12.5-15”
MRCC
Deficit has mostly increased since Isaac…
Precipitation Departure from Mean (in.)
Sep 2, 2012 to Dec 12 , 2012
MRCC
Significant 7-month deficits remain, central US. bullseye….
Precipitation Departure from Mean (in.)
May 1, 2012 to Dec 12, 2012
MRCC
U.S. Drought Status as
of Aug 28, 2012
U.S. Drought Status as
of Dec 11, 2012
http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/
Some recovery in Missouri, but impacts remain…
P. Guinan, Columbia, MO
Photo taken Dec 9, 2012
According to Missouri Ag Statistics Service, as of Nov 11, 2012:
Topsoil moisture supply: 48% short to very short
Subsoil moisture supply: 79% short to very short
Hay supplies: 80% short to very short
Stock water supplies: 76% short to very short
Pasture condition: 56% poor to very poor
Drought Summary
•An intense, persistent and historic growing season drought affected Missouri in
2012. The combination of above normal temperature, low humidity, numerous
sunny days, and lack of precipitation led to a rapid onset of impacts, i.e. agriculture.
•Historic climate data for Missouri indicates it was the 3rd warmest May through
August period on record and the 3rd driest May through August period on record. It
was also the warmest and driest May-Aug since 1936.
•Remnants of Hurricane Isaac, in combination with wetter and cooler conditions in
September and October, have provided relief for Missouri, but lingering drought
impacts remain. Complete drought elimination for Missouri will take frequent,
widespread and significant precipitation events as we progress through winter. A
significant deficit has accumulated over the past several months and it will take a
substantial amount of water to recharge the soil profile and surface water and
groundwater supplies.
•The 2012 drought resulted in numerous impacts, affecting many sectors in
Missouri. However, it is a young drought when compared to other historic droughts,
i.e. 1952-56. An important question we all need to consider is how prepared are we
when the next multi-year drought affects the Show Me State?
Hydrological drought will likely remain at start of next year’s growing
season over much of the central U.S.
1981-2010 Mean Winter Precipitation (in.)
Dec-Jan-Feb
1.5-2
2-3
3-4
4-5
5-7.5
7.5-10 10-12.5
12.5-15
Climate Outlooks
Temperature
and
Precipitation
Outlooks
Climate
Prediction
Center
Dec-Jan-Feb
Temperature
Outlook
Issued: Nov 15, 2012
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/
Climate
Prediction
Center
Dec-Jan-Feb
Precipitation
Outlook
Issued: Nov 15, 2012
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/
Potential summer drought signal for Missouri…
Top 15 Driest Mays in
Missouri
What happened the following summer…
Rank
67% of summers
warmer than normal
13% of summers
cooler than normal
20% of summers
near normal temp
60% of summers
drier than normal
6% of summers
wetter than normal
33% of summers
near normal rainfall
Near normal
temp: ± 1°F
Near normal
rain: ± 1.0”
Some thoughts…
•No one anticipated the severity and magnitude of the 2012 drought
and, similarly, no one knows what 2013 will bring.
•Extended dry and wet patterns can change abruptly and there are
numerous occasions, both in temp and precipitation, where Missouri
transitioned from one extreme to another in a short period of time.
•Recent historical trends for Missouri indicate an unprecedented
multi-decadal wet period beginning in the early 1980’s and persisting
until recently. Conversely, there have been decadal and multi-decadal
dry periods, i.e. 1930’s and 1950’s through the 1960’s.
•It’s impossible to say whether we’re slipping into an extended multiyear dry period, but I would be surprised if the trend of
unprecedented wetness we’ve witnessed over the past few decades
continues.
Missouri Climate Trends
Updated through Dec 2012
•Missouri’s most recent warm annual temperature trend began in 1998; 12
out of the past 15 years (80%) have been above normal. The 1930’s ranks as
the warmest decade on record for Missouri, 2000-2009 tied with the 1950s for
2nd warmest decade. 2012 will be our warmest year on record (since 1895).
•Seasonally, Missouri winters have experienced the greatest warming
trend, 16 out of the past 23 winters (70%) have been above normal and 4
out of the 5 warmest winters on record have occurred since 1991.
•Following winter, the biggest seasonal warming trend in Missouri has
been during the spring period (Mar-Apr-May); there have been only 3
cooler than normal springs since 1998 (80%).
•The median last spring frost date in Missouri is occurring about 3-4 days earlier
over the past 30 years compared to the long-term average.
Missouri Climate Trends
Updated through Dec 2012
•Recent temperature trend signals during the summer and autumn have been
weak. Up until the past 3 years, Missouri summers have not been unusually hot
compared to others in the past, ie. 1901, 1934,1936, 1954 and 1980.
•The median first fall frost date in Missouri has varied little over the past
30 years compared to the long-term average.
•Beginning in the early 1980’s, and since 1895, an unprecedented wet
period has evolved in Missouri. Since 1981, 21 out of 32 years (65%) have
had above normal precipitation.
•Over the past few decades, all 4 seasons have witnessed more above
normal precipitation years in Missouri; most notably in winter where 22 out
the past 31 winters recorded above normal precipitation (71%). Snowfall
trends have been declining.
Missouri Climate Trends
Updated through Dec 2012
•Since 1970, 66% of the years, or 27 out of 41 years, have experienced an above
normal number of days with measurable precipitation events (≥ 0.01”) in
Missouri compared to the long-term average.
•Over the past few decades, Missouri has witnessed an above normal trend in
heavy (≥ 1”) and extreme (≥ 3”) precipitation events compared to the longterm average.
• 28 cooperative weather stations have been reporting daily precipitation for
117 years, or since 1895; half of these stations have broken all-time 24-hour
precipitation records since 1973 (over the past 37 years).
climate.missouri.edu
Important tools for drought assessments…
www.cocorahs.org
Important tools for drought assessments…
Dec 4, 2012
Missouri
Jun 2012
Jul 2012
Aug 2012
Sep 2012
Oct 2012
Nov 2012
327/day
328/day
337/day
348/day
336/day
327/day
www.cocorahs.org
Use the Drought Impact Reporter…
http://droughtreporter.unl.edu/