3.4

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Space Weather Data and Observations at the
NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center
Terrance G Onsager and Rodney Viereck
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Space Weather Prediction Center
Challenge: Predicting the Impacts of the Sun’s Activity
Satellite Observations for
Future Space Weather
Forecasting
2
Space Weather Information Needs
Information timeliness:
• Long lead-time forecasts (1 to > 3 days)
• Short-term warnings (notice of imminent storm)
• Alerts and Specifications (current conditions)
Space Weather Category:
• X-ray flares
• Solar energetic particle events
• Radiation belt electron enhancements
• Geomagnetic storms
• Ionospheric disturbances
• Neutral density variations
Status of Current Space Weather Products
Long-Term Forecast
(1- >3 days)
Short-Term Forecasts
and Warnings (<1 day)
Nowcasts and Alerts
Flare
Products
M-flare and X-flare
Probabilities
M-flare and X-flare
Probabilities
X-ray Flux – Global
and Regional
Energetic
Particle
Products
Proton and Electron
Radiation
Probabilities
Proton and Electron
Radiation
Probabilities
Proton and Electron
Radiation – Global
and Regional
Geomag
Activity
Products
Geomagnetic Storm
Probabilities
Geomagnetic Storm
Probabilities –
Global and Regional
Geomagnetic
Activity – Global and
Regional
Iono and
Atmo
Products
Ionospheric and
Atmospheric
Disturbance
Probabilities
Disturbance
Probabilities –
Global and Regional
Ionospheric and
Atmospheric
Disturbances –
Global and Regional
Continuous data reception
from the ACE satellite is
necessary for real-time alerts
of solar storms
• DSCOVR
(NOAA/NASA/DOD)
–
ESA SOHO
● German Aerospace Center
● European Space Agency
● National Institute of Information and
Communication Technology, Japan
● Radio Research Agency, Korea
● NOAA
● NASA
● U.S. Air Force
NASA ACE
–
Solar wind composition, speed,
and direction
Magnetic field strength and
direction
Challenge: Coordinating Our Worldwide Data Resource
NASA STEREO
(Ahead)
Space-based and ground-based observations of
the Sun-Earth environment are being made around
the globe
•Ground Sites
–Magnetometers
–Riometers and Neutron
monitors
–Telescopes and Magnetographs
–Ionosondes
–GNSS
•SOHO (ESA/NASA)
–Solar EUV Images
–Solar Corona
(CMEs)
ESA/NASA SOHO
•ACE (NASA)
–Solar wind speed,
density, temperature and
energetic particles
–Vector Magnetic field
•STEREO (NASA)
–Solar Corona
–Solar EUV Images
–Solar wind
–Vector Magnetic field
Satellite Observations for
NASA STEREO
Future Space Weather
(Behind)
Forecasting
• COSMIC II
(Taiwan/NOAA)
–
NASA ACE
–
Ionospheric Electron
Density Profiles
Ionospheric
Scintillation
NOAA GOES
•GOES (NOAA)
–Energetic Particles
–Magnetic Field
–Solar X-ray Flux
–Solar EUV Flux
–Solar X-Ray Images
6
NOAA POES
•POES (NOAA)
–High Energy Particles
–Total Energy Deposition
–Solar UV Flux
•
L1 Measurements
–
Solar wind
•
–
•
Density, speed, temperature, energetic particles
Vector Magnetic Field
The most important set of observations for space
weather forecasting
–
–
–
Integral part of the daily forecast process
Provides critical 30-45 minute lead time for geomagnetic
storms
Used to drive and verify numerous models
NOAA’s FY 2011 Budget
8
Deep Space Climate Observatory (DSCOVR)
Solar Wind Mission
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
The DSCOVR spacecraft will be refurbished and
readied for launch in December 2013
Satellite and sensors will be transferred to NOAA
Refurbishment of satellite and Plas-Mag sensor will be
performed at NASA/GSFC under reimbursement by
NOAA
USAF plans to begin acquiring a launch vehicle in 2012
All data will be downlinked to the Real Time Solar
Wind Network (RTSWnet)
DSCOVR Earth science sensors are in the process of
being refurbished
A commercial partner will be solicited for the mission
to help evaluate the potential of commercial service
for a follow-on mission
Compact Coronagraph (CCOR)
•
•
•
NOAA and the Naval Research Laboratory are currently collaborating on a Phase A
study for a demonstration compact coronagraph
A reimbursable project for sensor development will begin at NRL in FY11
CCOR is a reduced mass, volume, and cost coronagraph design
– 6 kg telescope, 17 kg for sensor
– Optical train is 1/3 the length of traditional coronagraph designs
•
CCOR will fly on DSCOVR if schedule permits
– CCOR has been submitted to the DoD Space Test Program (STP) for flight as a back-up
strategy if necessitated by schedule
COSMIC Follow On (COSMIC 2)
•
•
•
•
COSMIC begins to degrade in 2011 (end of life)
Significant data reduction expected by 2014-2015 due to loss of satellites
President’s budget supports initial launch of COSMIC 2 in 2014
Proposed partnership with Taiwan –
– Taiwan to provide: 12 spacecraft and integration of payloads onto
spacecraft, ground system command & control
– NOAA to provide: 12 payloads (receivers), 2 launches, ground system data
processing
– System will provide 8000+ worldwide atmospheric and 10-12,000
ionospheric soundings per day (all weather, uniform coverage over oceans
and land)
• Commercial data purchase for enhancement/gap coverage under
consideration
Observed TEC Rays in
12-hour period (COSMIC)
GOES Update: Successful Launch of
GOES O and P
GOES 15 2010
GOES 14 2009
GOES 13 2006
GOES 12 2001
GOES 11 2000
90W
106W
75W
60W
135W
XRS/SXI (Storage)
Storage
MAG/EPS
South America
Secondary Ops
GOES 11/12/13/14/15 IN
GEOSTATIONARY
ORBIT
ABOUT 1 % OF THE
DISTANCE FROM THE
EARTH TO THE SUN,
ACE IS OUR SPACE
WEATHER SENTINEL.
EARTH
EARTH’S
MAGNETOSPHERE
MOON
13
GOES-R
 MPS-low:
 electrons/ions 30eV-30 keV 15 bands, 12 look directions
 MPS-hi:
 electrons 55 keV-4MeV 10 bands, 5 look directions
 Protons 80keV-3.2 MeV 9 bands ,5 look directions
 SGPS
 Protons 1-500 MeV, 10 channels, 2 directions
 EHIS
 10-200 MeV/nucleon, 4 mass groups, 1 look direction
 Magnetometer
 Status
 Just finished instrument CDR
 Launch expected in 2015
 Developing level 2 algorithms




Integral flux
Density and Temperature moments
Event detection
Magnetopause Crossings
New GEO particle product
 SEAESRT
 Implements O’Brien et al. 2009 anomaly
hazard quotients
 Surface Charging
 Based on Kp
 Internal Charging
 Based on GOES >2 MeV electron flux
 Single Event Upsets
 Based on GOES >30 MeV proton flux
 Total Dose
 Based on GOES >5 MeV proton flux
 Publicly available 2010
Solar Ultra-Violet Imager (SUVI)
Completely Different than GOES NOP:
• GOES NOP SXI observes in x-rays (0.6-6 nm)
• SUVI will observe in the Extreme Ultra-Violet (EUV) (10-30 nm)
Narrow band EUV imaging: Permits better discrimination between features of different temperatures
• 30.4 nm band adds capability to detect filaments and their eruptions
• 6 wavelengths (9.4, 13.1, 17.1, 19.5, 28.4, and 30.4 nm) 2 minute refresh for full dynamic range
SUVI will provide
• Flare location information (Forecasting event arrival time and geo-effectiveness)
• Active region complexity (Flare forecasting)
• Coronal hole specification (High speed solar wind forecasting)
SOHO EIT images currently used as a proxy for SUVI data:
• comparable resolution
• slower cadence
• incomplete spectral coverage
SDO AIA provides improved proxy data:
• 16X as many pixels as SUVI
• Higher cadence
• image in 8 EUV bands, 5 of which match SUVI exactly
SDO AIA 30.4 nm
GOES R EUVS Improvements
GOES NOP observed 3 (or 5) broad spectral bands
• No spectral information
• Difficult to interpret
• Impossible to build
Three GOES R EUVS Spectrometers
EUVSA Channel
EUVSB Channel
GOES R EUVS will take a different approach
• Observe three spectral regions with three small
spectrometers
• Measure the intensity of critical solar lines from various
parts of the solar atmosphere
• Model the rest of the solar spectrum scaling each
spectral line to the ones observed from the same region
of the solar atmosphere.
EUVSC Channel
GOES 14 Broad Bands
25.6 nm
28.4 nm
30.4 nm
17
117.5 nm
121.6 nm
133.5 nm
140.5 nm
275 - 285 nm
278.5 nm
Continuing LEO Space Weather Programs
• Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS):
– SEMS will be continued through the end of the
POES, DMSP, and Metop C
– Solar Irradiance measurements are planned,
energetic particle measurements are not planned
Seventh Framework Cooperation
• Advanced Forecasting for Ensuring Communications Through Space
(AFFECTS)
• Participants: Germany, Belgium, Ukraine, Norway, United States
• Coordinator: Dr. Volker Bothmer, Georg-August-Universität, Germany
Develop a forecasting and early-warning system to mitigate ionospheric
effects on navigation and communication systems
- Coordinated analysis of space-based and ground-based measurements
- Development of predictive models of solar and ionospheric disturbances
- Validation of forecast system
• Coordination Action for the Integration of Solar System Infrastructures
and Science (CASSIS)
• Participants: United Kingdom, Belgium, Switzerland, France, United States
• Coordinator: Dr. Robert Bentley, University College London
Improve the interoperability of data and metadata to enhance the
dissemination and utility of data across interdisciplinary boundaries.
Transatlantic EU-U.S. Cooperation in the Field
of Research Infrastructures
RISR-N,S
2011
PFR
2007
SRF
1982
PFR
200
7
SRF
SRF
1982
1982
AMISRMH
1962
Poker Flat
AO
1962
JRO
1963
• Incoherent Scatter Radar provide key data
for scientific understanding and to
develop and drive data-assimilation
models of the Earth-Space system
MH
MH
1962
1962
AO
AO
1962
1962
JRO
JRO
1963
1963
• Modern ISR also allow continuous, realtime data acquisition that can drive
operational models to protect our
economic and security infrastructures
• Recommendation is to broaden the ISR
user community to foster interdisciplinary
science across the full Earth-Space
environment and explore contribution to
operational space weather applications
Space Weather in the World
Meteorological Organization (WMO)
Motivation for WMO:
• Space Weather impacts the Global
Observing System and the WMO
Information System
• Space Weather affects important
economic activities (aviation, satellites,
electric power, navigation, etc.)
• Synergy is possible with current WMO
meteorological services and users, such
as sharing observing platforms and
issuing multi-hazard warnings
• Several WMO Members have Space
Weather with Hydro-Met Agency
• Effective partnership with International
Space Environment Service
THE POTENTIAL ROLE OF WMO IN SPACE
WEATHER
A REPORT ON THE POTENTIAL SCOPE, COST AND BENEFIT OF
A WMO ACTIVITY IN SUPPORT OF INTERNATIONAL
COORDINATION OF SPACE WEATHER SERVICES, PREPARED
FOR THE SIXTIETH EXECUTIVE COUNCIL
April 2008
Inter-Programme Coordination Team for
Space Weather
Officially established: 3 May 2010
Membership:
- Belgium
- Brazil
- Canada
- China (Co-chair)
Terms of Reference:
- Colombia
- Standardization and enhancement of Space
Weather data exchange and delivery through - European Space Agency
- Ethiopia
the WMO Information System (WIS)
- Finland
- Harmonized definition of end-products and
- Japan
services – including quality assurance and
- International Civil Aviation Organization
emergency warning procedures
- Int’l Space Environment Service
- Integration of Space Weather observations,
- International Telecommunication Union
through review of space- and surface-based
- UN Office of Outer Space Affairs
requirements, harmonization of sensor
- Russian Federation
specifications, monitoring observing plans
- United Kingdom
- United States (Co-chair)
- Encouraging research and operations dialog
WMO Programmes:
- Aeronautical Meteorology Programme
- Space Programme
Summary
• Space weather research and forecasting require coordinated
observations from around the globe
• ACE follow-on (DSCOVR) is moving forward. Coronagraph is
uncertain on DSCOVR. Globally distributed antennas, with
backups, are required.
• Upgraded geosynchronous measurements will soon be available,
some LEO capabilities will be lost, next-generation radiooccultation is anticipated.
• International partnerships are increasingly important, and
progress is being made.
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