Space Weather Data and Observations at the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center Terrance G Onsager and Rodney Viereck National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Space Weather Prediction Center Challenge: Predicting the Impacts of the Sun’s Activity Satellite Observations for Future Space Weather Forecasting 2 Space Weather Information Needs Information timeliness: • Long lead-time forecasts (1 to > 3 days) • Short-term warnings (notice of imminent storm) • Alerts and Specifications (current conditions) Space Weather Category: • X-ray flares • Solar energetic particle events • Radiation belt electron enhancements • Geomagnetic storms • Ionospheric disturbances • Neutral density variations Status of Current Space Weather Products Long-Term Forecast (1- >3 days) Short-Term Forecasts and Warnings (<1 day) Nowcasts and Alerts Flare Products M-flare and X-flare Probabilities M-flare and X-flare Probabilities X-ray Flux – Global and Regional Energetic Particle Products Proton and Electron Radiation Probabilities Proton and Electron Radiation Probabilities Proton and Electron Radiation – Global and Regional Geomag Activity Products Geomagnetic Storm Probabilities Geomagnetic Storm Probabilities – Global and Regional Geomagnetic Activity – Global and Regional Iono and Atmo Products Ionospheric and Atmospheric Disturbance Probabilities Disturbance Probabilities – Global and Regional Ionospheric and Atmospheric Disturbances – Global and Regional Continuous data reception from the ACE satellite is necessary for real-time alerts of solar storms • DSCOVR (NOAA/NASA/DOD) – ESA SOHO ● German Aerospace Center ● European Space Agency ● National Institute of Information and Communication Technology, Japan ● Radio Research Agency, Korea ● NOAA ● NASA ● U.S. Air Force NASA ACE – Solar wind composition, speed, and direction Magnetic field strength and direction Challenge: Coordinating Our Worldwide Data Resource NASA STEREO (Ahead) Space-based and ground-based observations of the Sun-Earth environment are being made around the globe •Ground Sites –Magnetometers –Riometers and Neutron monitors –Telescopes and Magnetographs –Ionosondes –GNSS •SOHO (ESA/NASA) –Solar EUV Images –Solar Corona (CMEs) ESA/NASA SOHO •ACE (NASA) –Solar wind speed, density, temperature and energetic particles –Vector Magnetic field •STEREO (NASA) –Solar Corona –Solar EUV Images –Solar wind –Vector Magnetic field Satellite Observations for NASA STEREO Future Space Weather (Behind) Forecasting • COSMIC II (Taiwan/NOAA) – NASA ACE – Ionospheric Electron Density Profiles Ionospheric Scintillation NOAA GOES •GOES (NOAA) –Energetic Particles –Magnetic Field –Solar X-ray Flux –Solar EUV Flux –Solar X-Ray Images 6 NOAA POES •POES (NOAA) –High Energy Particles –Total Energy Deposition –Solar UV Flux • L1 Measurements – Solar wind • – • Density, speed, temperature, energetic particles Vector Magnetic Field The most important set of observations for space weather forecasting – – – Integral part of the daily forecast process Provides critical 30-45 minute lead time for geomagnetic storms Used to drive and verify numerous models NOAA’s FY 2011 Budget 8 Deep Space Climate Observatory (DSCOVR) Solar Wind Mission • • • • • • • The DSCOVR spacecraft will be refurbished and readied for launch in December 2013 Satellite and sensors will be transferred to NOAA Refurbishment of satellite and Plas-Mag sensor will be performed at NASA/GSFC under reimbursement by NOAA USAF plans to begin acquiring a launch vehicle in 2012 All data will be downlinked to the Real Time Solar Wind Network (RTSWnet) DSCOVR Earth science sensors are in the process of being refurbished A commercial partner will be solicited for the mission to help evaluate the potential of commercial service for a follow-on mission Compact Coronagraph (CCOR) • • • NOAA and the Naval Research Laboratory are currently collaborating on a Phase A study for a demonstration compact coronagraph A reimbursable project for sensor development will begin at NRL in FY11 CCOR is a reduced mass, volume, and cost coronagraph design – 6 kg telescope, 17 kg for sensor – Optical train is 1/3 the length of traditional coronagraph designs • CCOR will fly on DSCOVR if schedule permits – CCOR has been submitted to the DoD Space Test Program (STP) for flight as a back-up strategy if necessitated by schedule COSMIC Follow On (COSMIC 2) • • • • COSMIC begins to degrade in 2011 (end of life) Significant data reduction expected by 2014-2015 due to loss of satellites President’s budget supports initial launch of COSMIC 2 in 2014 Proposed partnership with Taiwan – – Taiwan to provide: 12 spacecraft and integration of payloads onto spacecraft, ground system command & control – NOAA to provide: 12 payloads (receivers), 2 launches, ground system data processing – System will provide 8000+ worldwide atmospheric and 10-12,000 ionospheric soundings per day (all weather, uniform coverage over oceans and land) • Commercial data purchase for enhancement/gap coverage under consideration Observed TEC Rays in 12-hour period (COSMIC) GOES Update: Successful Launch of GOES O and P GOES 15 2010 GOES 14 2009 GOES 13 2006 GOES 12 2001 GOES 11 2000 90W 106W 75W 60W 135W XRS/SXI (Storage) Storage MAG/EPS South America Secondary Ops GOES 11/12/13/14/15 IN GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT ABOUT 1 % OF THE DISTANCE FROM THE EARTH TO THE SUN, ACE IS OUR SPACE WEATHER SENTINEL. EARTH EARTH’S MAGNETOSPHERE MOON 13 GOES-R MPS-low: electrons/ions 30eV-30 keV 15 bands, 12 look directions MPS-hi: electrons 55 keV-4MeV 10 bands, 5 look directions Protons 80keV-3.2 MeV 9 bands ,5 look directions SGPS Protons 1-500 MeV, 10 channels, 2 directions EHIS 10-200 MeV/nucleon, 4 mass groups, 1 look direction Magnetometer Status Just finished instrument CDR Launch expected in 2015 Developing level 2 algorithms Integral flux Density and Temperature moments Event detection Magnetopause Crossings New GEO particle product SEAESRT Implements O’Brien et al. 2009 anomaly hazard quotients Surface Charging Based on Kp Internal Charging Based on GOES >2 MeV electron flux Single Event Upsets Based on GOES >30 MeV proton flux Total Dose Based on GOES >5 MeV proton flux Publicly available 2010 Solar Ultra-Violet Imager (SUVI) Completely Different than GOES NOP: • GOES NOP SXI observes in x-rays (0.6-6 nm) • SUVI will observe in the Extreme Ultra-Violet (EUV) (10-30 nm) Narrow band EUV imaging: Permits better discrimination between features of different temperatures • 30.4 nm band adds capability to detect filaments and their eruptions • 6 wavelengths (9.4, 13.1, 17.1, 19.5, 28.4, and 30.4 nm) 2 minute refresh for full dynamic range SUVI will provide • Flare location information (Forecasting event arrival time and geo-effectiveness) • Active region complexity (Flare forecasting) • Coronal hole specification (High speed solar wind forecasting) SOHO EIT images currently used as a proxy for SUVI data: • comparable resolution • slower cadence • incomplete spectral coverage SDO AIA provides improved proxy data: • 16X as many pixels as SUVI • Higher cadence • image in 8 EUV bands, 5 of which match SUVI exactly SDO AIA 30.4 nm GOES R EUVS Improvements GOES NOP observed 3 (or 5) broad spectral bands • No spectral information • Difficult to interpret • Impossible to build Three GOES R EUVS Spectrometers EUVSA Channel EUVSB Channel GOES R EUVS will take a different approach • Observe three spectral regions with three small spectrometers • Measure the intensity of critical solar lines from various parts of the solar atmosphere • Model the rest of the solar spectrum scaling each spectral line to the ones observed from the same region of the solar atmosphere. EUVSC Channel GOES 14 Broad Bands 25.6 nm 28.4 nm 30.4 nm 17 117.5 nm 121.6 nm 133.5 nm 140.5 nm 275 - 285 nm 278.5 nm Continuing LEO Space Weather Programs • Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS): – SEMS will be continued through the end of the POES, DMSP, and Metop C – Solar Irradiance measurements are planned, energetic particle measurements are not planned Seventh Framework Cooperation • Advanced Forecasting for Ensuring Communications Through Space (AFFECTS) • Participants: Germany, Belgium, Ukraine, Norway, United States • Coordinator: Dr. Volker Bothmer, Georg-August-Universität, Germany Develop a forecasting and early-warning system to mitigate ionospheric effects on navigation and communication systems - Coordinated analysis of space-based and ground-based measurements - Development of predictive models of solar and ionospheric disturbances - Validation of forecast system • Coordination Action for the Integration of Solar System Infrastructures and Science (CASSIS) • Participants: United Kingdom, Belgium, Switzerland, France, United States • Coordinator: Dr. Robert Bentley, University College London Improve the interoperability of data and metadata to enhance the dissemination and utility of data across interdisciplinary boundaries. Transatlantic EU-U.S. Cooperation in the Field of Research Infrastructures RISR-N,S 2011 PFR 2007 SRF 1982 PFR 200 7 SRF SRF 1982 1982 AMISRMH 1962 Poker Flat AO 1962 JRO 1963 • Incoherent Scatter Radar provide key data for scientific understanding and to develop and drive data-assimilation models of the Earth-Space system MH MH 1962 1962 AO AO 1962 1962 JRO JRO 1963 1963 • Modern ISR also allow continuous, realtime data acquisition that can drive operational models to protect our economic and security infrastructures • Recommendation is to broaden the ISR user community to foster interdisciplinary science across the full Earth-Space environment and explore contribution to operational space weather applications Space Weather in the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Motivation for WMO: • Space Weather impacts the Global Observing System and the WMO Information System • Space Weather affects important economic activities (aviation, satellites, electric power, navigation, etc.) • Synergy is possible with current WMO meteorological services and users, such as sharing observing platforms and issuing multi-hazard warnings • Several WMO Members have Space Weather with Hydro-Met Agency • Effective partnership with International Space Environment Service THE POTENTIAL ROLE OF WMO IN SPACE WEATHER A REPORT ON THE POTENTIAL SCOPE, COST AND BENEFIT OF A WMO ACTIVITY IN SUPPORT OF INTERNATIONAL COORDINATION OF SPACE WEATHER SERVICES, PREPARED FOR THE SIXTIETH EXECUTIVE COUNCIL April 2008 Inter-Programme Coordination Team for Space Weather Officially established: 3 May 2010 Membership: - Belgium - Brazil - Canada - China (Co-chair) Terms of Reference: - Colombia - Standardization and enhancement of Space Weather data exchange and delivery through - European Space Agency - Ethiopia the WMO Information System (WIS) - Finland - Harmonized definition of end-products and - Japan services – including quality assurance and - International Civil Aviation Organization emergency warning procedures - Int’l Space Environment Service - Integration of Space Weather observations, - International Telecommunication Union through review of space- and surface-based - UN Office of Outer Space Affairs requirements, harmonization of sensor - Russian Federation specifications, monitoring observing plans - United Kingdom - United States (Co-chair) - Encouraging research and operations dialog WMO Programmes: - Aeronautical Meteorology Programme - Space Programme Summary • Space weather research and forecasting require coordinated observations from around the globe • ACE follow-on (DSCOVR) is moving forward. Coronagraph is uncertain on DSCOVR. Globally distributed antennas, with backups, are required. • Upgraded geosynchronous measurements will soon be available, some LEO capabilities will be lost, next-generation radiooccultation is anticipated. • International partnerships are increasingly important, and progress is being made.