British
Council
Indigenous adaptation to the
impact of climate change in West
African forests
By
Onyekuru N. Anthony
Supervisor: Dr.Rob Marchant
Environment Department
University of York
UK
Presented at the Environment Department Postgraduate Conference, 23 - 24 Feb, 2012
INTRODUCTION
One of the greatest challenges
in the 21st century is the
threat from climate change.
The developing World, especially
Africa, will bear the major
brunt of the problem
The problem



African countries
– Nigeria
– Sudan
Mendelsohn et al
– Algeria
– Cameroon
– South Africa
– Morocco
– Zaire
Will suffer the largest average losses (47%)
Nigeria suffering the highest
(2000)
Why?
Already adverse climate & extreme
events
 High level of poverty
 Dependency on climate-sensitive rain
fed agriculture & natural resources –
forest
 Low levels of infrastructure and human
development

Objectives
Determine the impact of climate change
on forest resources use
 Analyze the determinants and adoption
of adaptation options
 Determine cost effective indigenous
adaptation practices for forest
management

Methodology


West Africa has five distinct ecological zones
– Mangrove forest
– Rainforest (Lowland / Montane)
– Guinea savanna (North & South - Derived)
– Sudan Savanna
– Sahel savanna
All are in Nigeria
Methodology………… contd


500 rural households selected - Nigeria
– Rainforest – 200
– Mangrove – 100
– Guinea savanna – 100
– Sudan savanna – 50
– Montane - 50
Data collect with structured questionnaire
Results - Descriptive
Results – forest mgt structure


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65% - Individual ownership
78.6% - Free access
60% - Shifting cultivation
Poor management structure
Results – Forest resources

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Ogbono – Irvengia
gabonensis
(Bush mangoe)
Snails / Periwinkle
Bush meat
Timber
Fish
Cray fish
Firewood
Bush mangoe - Irvengia gabonensis
Results – Forest resources …..contd





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
Firewood
Ogbono
Vegetables
Fruits
Bush meat
Snails
Medicinal plants
Timber
Results – Forest resources …..contd
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Firewood
Vegetable
Ogbono
Honey
Medicinal plants
Bush meat
Results – Forest resources …..contd
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Ogbono
Fodder
Bush meat
Firewood
Locust bean
Timber
Results – Forest resources …..contd
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
Firewood
Timber
Fruits
Medicinal
plants
Charcoal
Bush meat
Honey
Forest contributions to h/hold income
Mean: 46.81%, Std. Dev.19,
Min. 10%, Max. 80%
Mean: 34%, Std. Dev 21,
Min 10%, Max 95%
Forest contributions……...contd
Mean: 19%, Std.Dev.141,
Min. 5%, Max.: 80%
Mean: 14.4%, Std. Dev.: 9.4,
Min.: 5%, Max.: 30%
Forest contributions………..contd
Mean: 31%, Std.Dev.: 22.7,
Min.: 5%, Max.: 95%
Regional mean: 38.7579%
Results – Years of forest use


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Mean: 20.52 yrs
Std dev. 13.947
Min. 1
Max. 70
Good knowledge
of changes in the
forest
Results – Changes in forest resources
Changes in forest resources….contd

Nature of changes
–
–

Decline in quantity
and quality
Elimination of
species
Causes of change
–
–
–
–
Climate change
Population
increase
Agriculture
Urbanization
Nature of Climate change impact

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
Increase in
weed
infestation
Floods and
erosion
Erratic
rainfall
pattern
Nature of Climate change impact ..contd

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Floods and
erosion
Heavy and
long period of
rainfall
Erratic rainfall
unusual early
rains followed
by weeks of
dryness
Nature of Climate change impact ..contd
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Delay in the
unset of rain
Increase in
pests
Loss of soil
fertility
Increase in
weed
infestation
Drought
Nature of Climate change impact ..contd

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Less rainfall
Drying up of
streams/river
Delay in the
unset of rain
Uncertainty in
the onset of
farming
season
Nature of Climate change impact ..contd



Delay unset
of rain
Unusual
early trains
followed by
wks of
dryness
Reduced
harmathan
Year impact began
2000
&
2001
Average annual rainfall pattern
Average annual rainfall 1980 - 2010
350
Relative temperature(0C)
300
250
200
Sahel
Sudan
Guinea
150
Mangrove
Rainforest
100
50
0
1975
1980
1985
1990
Data from Nigeria Metrological Institute
1995
Years
2000
2005
2010
2015
Adaptation options used
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Agro forestry
Water
harvesting
Selective tree
cutting
Avoidance of
burning
Use of energy
saving stove
Water shade
management
Use of local
drip irrigation
Adaptation options
Energy saving cook
stove
Agro forestry
Water shade mgt
Results - Papers
http://www.springerlink.com/content/j6857178j6qg5605/
Nigeria’s Response to the Impacts of Climate Change: Developing
Resilient and Ethical Adaptation Options
N. A. Onyekuru and Rob Marchant


http://york.academia.edu/AnthonyOnyekuru/Papers/690189/CLIMATE_
CHANGE_AND_RESOURCE_USE_CONFLICT_IN_WEST_AFRICA_I
SSUES_FOR_CONSIDERATION

http://york.academia.edu/AnthonyOnyekuru/Papers/1335190/Adaptation
_to_climate_change_in_Nigeria_and_West_Africa
Indigenous and cost effective climate change adaptation options in
forest resource management among rural households in West
Africa

WHAT NEXT….?

Impact analysis
–

Adoption decision analysis
–

Hechman 2 stage least square model
Determinants of adaptation options
–

Ricardian model
Multinomial logit Model
Cost effective adaptation option
–
Partial budgeting analysis
Appreciation
Dr. Rob Marchant
British
Council
The University of Nigeria
Thanks