Somalia After State Collapse:
Chaos or Improvement?
Benjamin Powell
Department of Economics
Suffolk University
and
Senior Economist
The Beacon Hill Institute
Background
• Government Collapse
in 1991
• 1993-1995 UN/US
Humanitarian
Interventions
• Governments in Exile
• Breakaway ‘States’ of
Somaliland and
Puntland
Competing Theories
• Hobbes/Buchanan/Olson
• Rothbard/Friedman
• Comparative Institutional Perspective
Government Failure
• 1969-1991 Dictatorship
– Scientific Socialism
– Land Nationalization and Redistribution
– Population Relocation
• Public Goods?
– 1988-1989: 90% of all Govt spending was on defense
and administration
– Spending on ‘social services’ less than 1% GDP
– Rural Pastoral Sector produced 65% of GDP from
1974-1988 but received less than 6% of Govt Spending
• Informal/Black Market
– Employed 70% of labor by mid 80s
– banking, finance, dispute settlement, health, education
Three Distinct Periods
• Post 1991 Warring
– US/UN Interventions 1993-1995
• 1995-2006
• 2006-Pres.
Rural Pastoral Sector
• Boom in Livestock Trade
– In Garrissa Export Market the value of cattle sales
increased 400% from 1991 to 1998 while volume
quadrupled from 1989-1998
– In the north ports of Bossaso and Berbera exported 95%
of all goats and 52% of all sheep in East Africa. Larger
volume in 1999 than anytime under a government.
• Drought 1999-2000
– Did better than neighboring Kenya and similar to other
East African Nations
• Security
– Armed Security costs $0.01/km per animal
– In 1999 Only 26 percent of traders identified security as
a problem and only 13 percent thought it was more of a
problem than in 1990
Urban/Commercial Activity
• Major Companies
– Dole Fruit, Coca-Cola, DHL.
– GM, BBC, British Airways
• City of Borama
– 150-300K Population
– 95 Tea Shops, 90 Restaurants (8 with star
ratings), 145 Elementary Shops, 69
Wholesalers, 106 Retail shops, 30 pharmacies,
16 hotels (4), 18 Fuel Stations (7), Airport (1),
2 hospitals, and a University with 100,000
books
Overall Living Standards
• Compared to Itself
– Leeson (2006) 18 Indicators 1985-1990 to
2000-2005
– Finds 13 Improved, 2 Worse, 3 Questionable
• Relative to 42 other Sub-Saharan Countries
Table 1. Somalian Living Standards
2005
Death Rate (per 1000)
Infant Mortality (per 1000)
Life Expectancy
Child Malnutrition (% of children underweight)
Telephone-Main Lines per 1,000 people
Mobile Cellular Phones per 1,000 people
Internet Users Per 1,000 People
Households with TV (% households)
Immunization, DPT (% children 12-23 months)
Immunization, measles (% children 12-23 months)
Improved sanitation facilities (% of pop with access)
Improved water source (% of pop with access)
Tuberculosis (per 100,000 people)
17
133
47
26
25
63
25
8
30
40
26
29
411
Rank Among 42 Sub-Saharan Countries
2005
1990
1985
17
38
18
a
20
8
16
11
27 c
41
42
24
41
31
Data from closest year preceeding listed date was used when data for given year was unavailable
Italics indicate a tie for the given rank with at least one other country.
a. ranking out of 36
b. ranking out of 41
c. ranking out of 40
d. ranking out of 39
e. ranking out of 37
f. ranking out of 36
37
32b
37
29
30
31
34
b
33
d
21
19 f
38
38d
40
b
e
Table 2. Somalia's Rank Among Peaceful Sub-Saharan Nations
Death Rate (per 1000)
Infant Mortality (per 1000)
Life Expectancy
Child Malnutrition (% of children underweight)
Telephone-Main Lines per 1,000 people
Mobile Cellular Phones per 1,000 people
Internet Users Per 1,000 People
Households with TV (% households)
Immunization, DPT (% children 12-23 months)
Immunization, measles (% children 12-23 months)
Improved sanitation facilities (% of pop with access)
Improved water source (% of pop with access)
Tuberculosis (per 100,000 people)
2005
1990
1985
8
17
9
12
6
10
6
a
12
17
16
15
18
12
17
15
17
14
14
16
15
16
17
17
11
10
18
Data from closest year preceeding listed date was used when data for given year was unavailable
All Rankings out of 18 (17 peaceful nations plus Somalia) unless otherwise noted
Italics indicate a tie for the given rank with at least one other country.
a. ranking out of 17
Table 3. 1990-2005 Percent Improvement Compared to Nations
That Warred at a Similar Time
Death Rate (per 1000)
Infant Mortality (per 1000)
Life Expectancy
Telephone-Main Lines (per 1,000 people)
Immunization, DPT (% children 12-23 months)
Immunization, measles (% children 12-23 months)
Tuberculosis (per 100,000 people)
Somalia
5 Country Avg
22.7%
0.0%
11.9%
1150.0%
57.9%
33.3%
-20.5%
12.6%
12.7%
3.7%
271.3%
46.2%
24.2%
-11.1%
Five Country Avg Comprised of Djibouti (91-94), Mali (90-96), Mauritania (89-91), Senegal (89-91), and Togo (91-92)
Complex Goods and Services
• Airline Travel
– 15 Firms 60 Planes 6 International Routes
• Up From 1 National Carrier and 1 Route in 1989
• Banking/Funds Transfers
– Hawala System moves $0.5-1 billion annually
– SOS/$
• Roads
– 3,000 KM per 1k pop = Neighboring Govts.
• Social Insurance
‘Public Goods’
• Security/Protection
– Privately hired
• “Taxes payable to a tentative local authority or
strongman are seldom more than 5%, security is
another 5%...” Economist 12/05
• Little shows that rural security costs have not
increased
• Law
– Clan based elder dispute resolution
– common law of Xeer and Diya payment system
– Muslim courts
• National Defense...
What About
Pirates?
• Somalia does fairly well in a comparative
institutional analysis
• It succeeds in providing some law and order
without a government
• Given ideology, culture, and resources,
Somalia is performing better than when it
had a state and equal or better than many
other African countries with governments.
Implications for Africa
• Customary law is not unique to Somalia
• Need to distinguish between “modern”
Africa and traditional Africa
• Much effort is made to prop up “modern”
Moving Forward
• “The rogue African state should be left to
the fate it deserves – implosion and state
collapse.” George Ayittey, MPNR 173.
• Line up informal and formal
• Evolve customary law
• What “we” can do