Solar, wind: technology, cost, potential, applications Palang Thai May 17, 2009 MeeNet, Thailand Solar PV Costs: Grid-connected: $3,000 to $6,000 per kW for grid-connected projects, (LCLT Common Ground is coming in at $6 for 36 kW) $0.15/kWh to $0.22/kWh (98% fixed cost) for grid-connected Off-grid Typically $8,000 to $10,000 per kW $0.25 to $0.45 per kWh (competitive with diesel) Industry trend: 70% growth in 2008. Over 40% average over past decade Potential: 14 km x 14 km enough to meet Thai peak load Capacity factor: 0.15 Issues: expensive, intermittent Solar Photovoltaic (PV) -- costs $3,000/kW to $6,000/kW (depending on system size) $0.15/kW to $0.22/kWh in 2005 for 10 MW plant in Phoenix, Arizona, USA in 2005. Solar 13.7 km TESCO Lotus, Rama I, 460 kWp, Cost: 75,165,000 baht 13.7 km 0.037% of Thailand area 100% peak load (22,586 MW) 3 kW: 660,000 baht How solar photovoltaics (PV) works Solar photovoltaics fastest growing power generation technology, with a 70 percent increase in existing capacity worldwide to reach 13 GW in 2008. www.REN21.net Solar Photovoltaic (PV) Capacity factor: 0.15 Power production coincident with peak (air-conditioning) load Thai government solar home program 203,000 solar home systems >20% failure rate within first year in Tak Wind • Costs: – Grid-connected: • EURO 1300 per kW for grid-connected projects, • $0.09/kWh for large (80 to 200 MW installation) – Off-grid • Comparable with solar PV • Industry trend: 29% growth in 2008. • Potential: not great in SE Asia (but OK in Vietnam). China excellent, especially north • Capacity factor: 0.15 • Issues: expensive, intermittent. Some concerned about bird kills, but is tiny fraction of kill from power lines, other power plants Wind -- Costs $0.09/kWh for 80 to 200 MW wind power plant in Washington State, USA. (Source: Energy Northwest) installed cost averaged €1,300 per kilowatt in 2007 (source: www.gwec.net) Wind energy potential world-wide SE Asia low compared to much of the world Thai wind potential: 1600 MW (?) Wind -resource Wind - capacity factor capacity factor installed capacity mean power MWe MWe 60 23 38.1% U.S. (total) [3] (a) 6740 1941 28.8% U.K. (off-shore) [4] (b) 304 74 28.7% U.K. (on-shore) [4] 1651 408 27.2% Denmark (total) [2] [6] (c) 3128 755 24.1% Spain (total) [2] 11615 2534 21.8% Portugal (total) [2] [7] (d) 1022 202 19.8% Netherlands (total) [2] [8] (e) 1219 236 19.3% Germany (total) [5] 20622 3482 16.9% India (total) [2] [9] (f) 4430 704 15.9% Italy (total) [2] [10] (g) 1718 268 15.6% Poland (total) [2] 153 22 14.6% France (total) [2] [11] (h) 757 109 14.5% World (total) [2] [12] (i) 59051 11559 19.6% Morocco Amogdoul wind farm [2] Source: http://lightbucket.wordpress.com/2008/03/13/the-capacity-factor-of-wind-power/ 28.5 GW = Thailand’s peak load in 2007 Source: www.ren21.net •Installed in Thailand: 1 MW Windpower – top 10 countries 2008 Source: www.ren21.net Wind energy – human scale http://natee2007.thaiza.com 8,200 baht 17.7 baht/kWh Thai wind pioneers build wind power themselves.