Transmission Needs in a Fully
Renewable Pan-European
Electricity System
IRENEC, June 2012
Rolando Andres Rodriguez
Energy Systems Engineering
Department of Engineering
Aarhus University
Renewable Energy Research Group
Aarhus University
Group Leader
Main Research Topics
- Large-scale renewable energy systems
- Physics of complex networks
- Wind farm turbulence modeling
Martin Greiner
Professor, System Engineering
greiner@imf.au.dk
Fundamental Research Approach
- Independent of policies or technological advances
- Strongly dependent on reliable and thorough weather data
- Based on simple mathematical models
Rolando A. Rodriguez, 2012.06.28
rar@imf.au.dk
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Model Data
Weather Data
Load Data
50 km x 50 km
1 hour resolution
8 year period
1 hour resolution
8 year period
Allows modelling of
hourly
consumption/producti
on for 27 European
countries
Possible Power
Production
Solar Energy
Wind Energy
Rolando A. Rodriguez, 2012.06.28
rar@imf.au.dk
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Weather Variations
Rolando A. Rodriguez, 2012.06.28
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Mismatch Calculation
Hourly mismatch of generation and consumption:
Dn (t) = a G (t)+ (1- a )G (t) - Ln (t)
W
n
W
n
W
n
S
n
W(t): Normalized hourly wind power generation.
S(t): Normalized hourly solar power generation.
L(t): Normalized hourly electricity demand (load).
Power generation is normalized according to energy output
and not installed capacity.
GnS (t) = GnW (t) = Ln (t)
Rolando A. Rodriguez, 2012.06.28
rar@imf.au.dk
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Residual Load
Instantaneous mismatch:
Residual load needs to be covered by power
balancing from conventional sources!
Rolando A. Rodriguez, 2012.06.28
rar@imf.au.dk
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Optimal Mix of Wind and Solar
Wind power
Solar PV
power
Load
Wind + Solar PV
Load
Optimising for
Storage Energy ≈ 60% wind power + 40% solar power
Balancing Energy ≈ 70% wind power + 30% solar power
Balancing Power ≈ >70% wind power + <30% solar power
Rolando A. Rodriguez, 2012.06.28
rar@imf.au.dk
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A Fully Renewable Europe
Analysed Scenario
•27 European Countries
•Annual Renewable Production =
Annual Consumption
•Existing links as of winter 2011-2012
•Optimal mix installed in all countries
≈ 70% Wind, 30% Solar
What are the benefits of transmission for a fully renewable Europe?
What is a sufficiently large transmission system?
Rolando A. Rodriguez, 2012.06.28
rar@imf.au.dk
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Unconstrained Power Transmission
Quantifying the benefit of transmission is done through the total need for balancing
Bn =(Δn-(KF)n)Which is a result of
Rolando A. Rodriguez, 2012.06.28
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• Mismatch
• Net Exports
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Unconstrained Power Transmission
We identify sufficiently large quantiles on transmission limitations.
Rolando A. Rodriguez, 2012.06.28
rar@imf.au.dk
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Constrained Power Transmission
• Copper Plate transmission roughly 10x actual installed capacity.
• 99% Quantiles roughly 5x actual installed capacity.
• Several ways to interpolate
– Linear Increase of current limits
– Linear Reduction of 99% Quantile limits
– Implementation of intermediate Quantiles
• These constraints implemented as limits on flow capacity
Rolando A. Rodriguez, 2012.06.28
rar@imf.au.dk
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Constrained Problem Statement
Constraint implementation effects the following changes in the
problem statement.
Rolando A. Rodriguez, 2012.06.28
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Constrained Power Transmission
Rolando A. Rodriguez, 2012.06.28
rar@imf.au.dk
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Constrained Power Transmission
Availability of export to neighbours
Rolando A. Rodriguez, 2012.06.28
rar@imf.au.dk
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Renewable Energy Research Group
Aarhus University
Martin Greiner
(professor)
Morten G. Rasmussen
(postdoc)
Gorm B. Andresen
(postdoc)
Dominik Heide
(former ph.d/postdoc)
Rolando A. Rodriguez
(ph.d. student)
Sarah Becker
(ph.d. student)
Thank you for your attention!
Rolando A. Rodriguez, 2012.06.28
rar@imf.au.dk
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