Australian Hot Water Market
Presentation
Simon Terry
DUX National Sales Manager
1st June 2010
Australian Hot Water Market
2009 was extraordinary by any yardstick
• High REC prices and additional
Govt rebate support provided
very strong demand for solar and
heat pumps
• The Federal rebate was mutually
exclusive for solar/HP or
insulation. You couldn’t get both.
• Around 110,000 houses
participated in the scheme and
installed a solar hot water system
or a heat pump in 12 months.
• Unlike the insulation scheme,
only qualified plumbers and
electricians were able to install
solar and heat pumps
• We estimate around 30,000 units
were pulled forward in 2009
Forecast 2010 Market Size & Product Type
He at P um p , 3 0
S o lar, 8 0
S to rag e E le c tric ,
272
C o ntinuo us F lo w,
195
S to rag e G as , 1 3 3
S to rag e E le c tric
S to rag e G as
C o ntinuo us F lo w
S o lar
He at P um p
Units 000
Hot Water Category Forecast 2007-2013
400
350
Units 000's
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
2007
2008
Storage Electric
2009
Storage Gas
2010
2011
Continuous Flow
2012
Solar
2013
Heat Pump
Hot Water Units
Forecast 2007-2013
100%
12
55
21
64
50
100
80%
145
30
35
35
80
85
90
139
159
195
188
60%
64
205
215
132
135
250
133
136
40%
366
20%
125
122
117
332
236
272
260
248
140
0%
2007
2008
2009
Storage Electric
Storage Gas
2010
Continuous Flow
2011
Solar
2012
Heat Pump
2013
Hot Water Market Value 2007-2013
1,000
900
800
162
Market Value $M
700
600
500
400
300
127
30
123
112
142
224
123
179
190
202
150
158
166
311
193
99
221
89
98
200
100
89
52
145
96
76
97
91
164
157
89
85
201
143
150
85
0
2007
2008
Storage Electric
2009
Storage Gas
2010
2011
Continuous Flow
2012
Solar
Heat Pump
2013
Hot Water industry in ‘constant shock’ with
rapidly changing rebates. There has now
been 25 rebate changes since February
2009
The latest on hot water rebates
• FEDERAL
–
–
–
–
Proposed change in RECs to flat $40 SREC from 1st Jan 2011
4th Feb 2009 - $1,600 rebate for HP or solar replacing electric. No means testing
3rd Sep 2009 - HP reduced from $1,600 to $1,000
19th Feb 2010 - Solar rebate reduced to $1000. HP rebate reduced to $600
• NSW
– 1st Oct 2007 - $600 to $1,200 for HP or solar depending on REC efficiency
– 15th Jan 2010 - Rebate reduced to $300 on solar and HP. Gas unchanged.
• VIC
– Original Metropolitan and Regional Rebate Programs up to $2,500
– VEECs program launched
– 4th Sept 2009 – Rebate programs reduced to $300 - $1,600
• QLD
– Short-lived QLD Solar Hot Water Program. $100 for pensioners; $500 others
– 14th April 2010 - $600 for solar or HP replacing electric with min 20 RECs. $1000
for pensioners
• SA & WA
SA - $500 state rebate for concession card holders
WA - $500 for natural gas boosted solar and $700 for LPG boosted solar
We developed web solutions to keep pace
•Constantly updated to ensure
accuracy. Whenever a rebate has
changed, the website has been
updated with 24 hours.
• Allows a homeowner to
download all relevant rebate forms
and search by postcode for a
trained plumbers.
The The
Govt’s
Regulatory
Impact
Australian
Hot Water Market
Statement has been released
The hot water market will change forever
•
•
•
In Feb 2010, Govt released the
long awaited RIS and ran
consultation seminars.
RIS examined 3 options:1. Banning electric storage
replacements in detached
homes from 2011
2. A progressive electric ban for
replacements delayed to
2013
3. Owner occupiers would be
able to replace electric
storage when there was no
natural gas access, but
rented homes would need to
be upgraded to solar, heat
pump or 5 star gas at the
landlord’s expense.
Tasmania, on hydro electricity, is
exempt.
Issues for the Government from the RIS
• Of the 3.7M homes with an
electric water heater,
– 46% have no access to natural
gas
– a further 12% are unlikely to
have access to natural gas.
• Regional NSW and QLD,
where there is poor gas
access, will be heavily affected
• Govt concerned about a 5 star
gas water heater running on
bottled LPG with annual
running costs will be over $900.
A massive increase on the
$350 in running costs for an
electric off peak now.
• Continuous flow is fully
imported putting Australian
manufacturing jobs at risk
Hot water
products
of the
future
The Australian
Hot Water
Market
Energy and water efficient hot water
systems will be in strong demand
• Storage electric will continue in
residential multi-units, commercial
buildings and Tasmania but with a
much narrower range.
• 5+ star gas products will be grow
quickly.
• At some point, Govt address the
water wastage issues with some
water heaters
• Enhanced solar products with
greater functionality and higher
performance will be released.
Installation methods will be
simplified.
• Heat pump technology, product
performance and size
configurations will increase
Knowledge
will be Hot
theWater
keyMarket
in the new
The Australian
market. Training is more important than
ever before.
Dux Solar Institute
• We surveyed over 800
plumbers in Nov 2009.
• 40% had still never
installed a solar or heat
pump.
• GWA invested over $250k
in a specialist solar training
centre at Moss Vale
• 2 full time trainers
• We’ve developed a “hands
on” 2 day training program
for solar, heat pump and
continuous flow
• Your staff will understand
how they are installed, how
they work and fault
resolution
Thank
for Hot
your
attention
The you
Australian
Water
Market