Road Map to Quantify Climate Forcing
Factors on Himalayan Glaciers
Baldev R. Arora
Wadia Institute of Himalayan Geology,
DEHRADUN 248 001, India
E-mail ID: arorabr@wihg.res.in
Climate Change: A reality
Rise of mean annual global
surface temperature by
0.74±0.18oC during the last
100 years
Global
Warming
Source level increase in
anthropogenic emission of
carbon-dioxide
in
atmosphere
Sea level variations
Observable
changes
in
onset and durations of
seasons,
precipitation
pattern,
river
runoff,
variability in biodiversity,
etc.
are considered as pointers
of changing climate
Assessment of Glacier Health by Snout Monitoring
1995
1962
Recession of Dokriani glacier over the period 1962-1995
Average rate of recession = 16.5 m/yr
Average Recession Rate of Himalayan Glaciers
Name of glacier
Period
years
Recession
( m)
Average rate
(m/yr.)
Milam glacier
1849-1957
108
1350
12.50
Pindari glacier
1845-1966
121
2840
23.40
Gangotri glacier
1962-1991
29
580
20.00
Tipra bank glacier
1960-1986
26
325
12.50
Dokriani glacier
1962-1991
29
480
16.5
Chorabari
1962-2003
41
196
4.8
Shankulpa
1881-1957
76
518
6.8
Poting
1906-1957
51
262
5.13
1932-56
24
198
8.25
Bara Shigri
1956-1963
07
219
31.28
Chhota Shigri
1987-1989
03
54
18.5
Sonapani
1909-1961
52
899
17.2
Kolai
1912-1961
49
800
16.3
Zemu
1977-1984
07
193
27.5
Glacier No-3Arwa
Mass-balance studies of Himalayan glaciers
S.No Name
.
glacier
1
2
3
4
5
7
8
9
10
11
12
of
the Location
Gara glacier
Gor- Garag
Shaune Garang
Nehnar
CangmeKhangpu
Rulung glacier
Tipra Bamak
Dunagiri
Chhota-Shigri
Dokriani glacier
Chorabari glacier
H.P.
H.P.
H.P.
J&K
J&K
J&K
UA
UA
H.P
UA
UA
Period
study
1974-1983
1977-1985
1981-1990
1978-1984
1978-1987
1979-1981
1981-1988
1984-1992
1986-1989
1992-2000
2003-2003
of Cum.Sp.bn.
(m)
-2.87
-3.30
-2.87
-2.37
-1.86
-0.20
-1.34
-6.26
-0.21
-1.47
-2.70
Worker
GSI
GSI
GSI
GSI
GSI
GSI
GSI
GSI
WIHG
WIHG
WIHG
●Shanker R., 1999;  Dobhal et al., 1995;
Dobhal et. al., 2007;
Kaul et al., 1997
AERIAL VIEW
DOKRIANI BAMAK GLACIER
-BHAGIRATHI BASIN, UTTARAKHAND
Din Gad Catchment
Glaciated Area – 7 km2
Catchmnet Area ~ 16 km2
Altitude > 3800 m
Glacier recession
Mass balance
Glacial melt water flow
Glacial sediment transfer
Annual Snout Retreat of Dokriani Glacier 1991-2007
Met Parameter and Snout Recession Trend of Dokriani GlacierAnnual Rain Fall (mm)
Annual snout
Retreat
Standing Snow
Depth (mm)
600
500
Winter Snow
Snow w.eq.
precipitation
Annual
Average
Temp.
Snow W.eq. (mm)
400
300
200
100
0
1998-1999
1999-2000
2000-2001
2001-2002
2002-2003
2003-2004
Stakes network for mass balance
Volm um e m illion cum
Comparative Mass-Balance of Dokriani Glacier
6.00
5.00
4.00
3.00
2.00
1.00
0.00
-1.00
-2.00
-3.00
1993
1994
1995
1998
1999
2000
year
Net Accumultion
NetAblation
Net Balance
Dokriani Glacier, 1992-2000
Period
Total Retreat
(m)
Annual Snout
Recession (ma-1)
Reference
1962-1991 480
16.5
Dobhal et.al. (2004)
1991-2001 161.2
17.8
Dobhal et.al. (2007)
2000-2008 130
16.3
Dobhal & Mehta (2010)
Recession m/year
18
17.5
17
16.5
16
15.5
15
1962-1991
1991-2000
2000-2008
Global Warming Factors
• ANTHROPOGRNIC(Greenhouse Gases,
aerosols, dust)
•NATURAL
• Solar forcing
• Orbital forcing
• Radiative forcing
AA
AA
Long Term Ice Age Cycles of 100 Kyr (Milankovitch
Cycles) are attributed to the eccentricity of the
Earth’s orbit around the Sun
AA
Changes in the Earth's orbit around the Sun (Milankovitch
Cycles) are believed to be the pacemaker of the 100,000 year
ice age cycle.
Correlation between Solar Irradiance and
Sunspot Solar cycle during 1978-2004
Do Solar Cycles cause Global Warming?
The
global surface temperature, de-trended for Global
warming, shows strong correlation with Total Solar Irradiance
(TSI)
(Source:
Charles D. Camp
and Ka Kit Tung, 2007)
Forcing from the Sun increases global surface temperature
by 0.18o C during the 11-Year Solar Cycle
Volcanic eruptions: 1982, 1991 and El-nino Pear 1998
Dependence of Global Surface Temperature
On 11-year Sunspot Solar Cycle
Global measurements of Solar wind pressure by Ulysses Spacecraft during 1992-98 (Green Curve) and 2007-2008 (Blue Curve),
Scanning respectively the minimum of solar cycles 22 and 23
Solar wind looses power:
Hits 50 year low
Solar –Terrestrial implications
Heliosphere inflates less:
Less shielding against
the Cosmic Rays
High energy electron (20GeV) in
cosmic ray show around 20%
increase around the earth
Sun’s magnetic field also decreased
by 30% since 1950
(Source: http:// science-nasa.gov/sceince-news/science-at-nasa/nasa/23sep_solarwind/)
Comparison of temperature and density of electrons in
solar wind During solar minimum 22 (1994-95) and 23 (2007)
Issautier et al., GRL 35, L19101, doi 10,1029/2008, 2008
Results
No significant change in
Solar wind speed : 3%
Solar wind pressure has
decreased largely due to
decrease in temperature
& density
Solar wind Cooler : 13%
Solar wind less dense:
20%
Global measurements of Solar wind pressure by Ulysses Spacecraft during 1992-98 (Green Curve) and 2007-2008 (Blue Curve),
Scanning respectively the minimum of solar cycles 22 and 23
Solar wind looses power:
Hits 50 year low
Solar –Terrestrial implications
Heliosphere inflates less:
Less shielding against
the Cosmic Rays
High energy electron (20GeV) in
cosmic ray show around 20%
increase around the earth
Sun’s magnetic field also decreased
by 30% since 1950
(Source: http:// science-nasa.gov/sceince-news/science-at-nasa/nasa/23sep_solarwind/)
A laboratory experiment to simulate effect of debris cove
on melt rate of glacier when subjected to:
(a) Steady state heat flux – Increase in average temperature
(b) Diurnally varying heat flux – Day/Night variation in solar rad
(c) Rainfall together with diurnal thermal forcing
Reznichenko et al., J. Glaciology, 56, 384-396,2010)
Influence of Debris cover in steady-state
(constant increase in heat flux) conditions
Under the effect of fixed increase in heat-flux, i.e in the
absence of diurnal variability of radiation, the primary role
of debris cover is to delay the onset of steady ice surface
melting; once melting rates stabilize, the debris cover has
no further significant effect on rate of ablation;
Effect of Diurnal Radiation Cycle & Rainfall
on Ablation Rate for debris covered ice
Under cyclic diurnal radiation- a reduction in ablation rate occurs,
& degree of reduction is controlled by the debris-cover thickness.
The effect of rainfall on ice ablation depends both on intensity of diurnal
cycle on the permeability of the debris cover:
High-permeability supra-glacier - accelerated ablation
Rock-avalanche debris - relatively impermeable - reduced ablation rates
Action plan to establish climate forcing
factors on glacier dynamics
 Establish Flagship Field Stations for multidisciplinary high
quality data capture to establish inter-linkages of various
forcing factors with glacier dynamics
 Document glacial responses to palaeoclimatic variability
through laboratory sediment records (moraine, glacial, fluvial
and lacustrine), ice cores, peat logs, tree rings etc.
 Supplement studies by numerical/laboratory simulation
experiments
to answer key questions and understand
processes controlling climate forcing
Some specific key questions to be answered
• Are all the Himalayan glaciers retreating? If so, at what rate?
• Is the glacial retreat affected by Anorthopognic factors or are there
Natural Climate Parameters? What are the forcing factors responsible for
glacial dynamics in the Himalaya?
• How slope and geometry of the valley control the glacier dynamics?
• Is there a difference in the rates of retreat between larger and the smaller
glaciers? If so, why and How much?
• Does the valley orientation (direction) have any bearing on the magnitude
of response (retreat)? What is the magnitude of change?
• Whether the moraine cover protect the glaciers from incoming solar
radiation? Can this be quantified?
• Whether the Proxies like Snow line and/or Tree line fluctuations in
Himalaya marker of climate variation?
Thank you