Team3_FinalGrantProposal_Presentation

advertisement
FOREST FIRE
SIMULATION PROPOSAL
Sophie Schneider, Gordon Read, Evan Holmes, Trevor Isner, Sami Anderson
Introduction
•
•
•
Waldo Canyon Fire forced 11,000 people from
their homes (Summer 2012)
Entire area was affected by higher temperatures
and air pollution
Burn scars led to severe flooding the following year
Waldo Canyon Fire
Introduction
•
•
•
Wildfires may be better controlled with the use of
simulations that can model behaviors
Allow us to react to real-world situations more
effectively
Investigative Question: How does forest fire
composition affect the behavior of forest fires in
the Southern Colorado region?
Variables
Independent Variables
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
Type of vegetation
Distribution of vegetation
Elevation
Humidity
Wind direction and speed
Atmospheric temperature
Cause of fire
Placement of bodies of water
Dependent Variables
●
●
●
●
Temperature of fire
Movement of fire
Spotting chance
Size
Proposal
•
•
Simulation specifically designed for the Southern
Colorado region
Funding would allow us to deepen the simulation to
be more accurate
o
•
o
More tree types
Weather patterns
Access to servers with related information would be
of use
What is fire?
Combustion
•
•
•
Fuel reacts with oxygen to release heat energy (exothermic reaction).
Gases break down due to heat and make new compounds (carbon dioxide, water, soot…)
Fuels can be solid, liquid or gas, however combustion only occurs between gasses.
Fire Tetrahedron
•
•
Heat, fuel, oxygen, uninhibited chemical chain reaction
o Creates heat to sustain flame
Redox reaction
o Oxygen becomes reduced, fuel becomes oxidized
How Fires Work
Four Stages of Fire
•
•
•
•
Ignition: Fuel, oxygen and heat form together in a chemical reaction
Growth: Additional fuel ignites with the initial heat and flame.
Fully Developed: Fire has covered and consumed most of the fuel
Decay: Fire has consumed all fuel, causing temperatures to decrease, and eventually leads to a burn out.
Heat Transfer
•
•
Radiation: The transfer of energy via waves (through space)
Convection: The transfer of heat energy due to the
“physical movement” of hot air.
•
Conduction: The transfer of heat energy with material, itself.
Most fires spread due to conduction
How do forest fires start?
•
Human causes
o 90% of wildfires caused by humans
o Unattended campfires, burning of debris, discarded cigarettes
•
o Intentional acts of arson
Natural causes
o Volcanic eruptions
o Lightning strikes
 Unusually long-lasting hot lightning strikes
 Currents of less voltage, but strikes occur for longer periods of time
What are the types of plants in the Southern
Colorado region?
•
Plants used in simulation:
o
•
o
Trees
Shrubs/undergrowth
There are many different tree and plant species
common to Southern Colorado
o
Due to lack of funding, only three tree species and
three shrubs will be highlighted.
Tree Species
Type of Tree
Elevation
Tree Height
Characteristics
Blue Spruce
6,700-11,500 feet
70-115 feet
thin bark, shallow roots, low branches
Ponderosa Pine
6,300-9,500 feet
40-160 feet
thick bark, high-moisture content, open
crowns, high branches
White Fir
7,900-10,200 feet
60-125 feet
thin bark, resinous wood, low branches
Undergrowth
Type of Shrub
Elevation
Shrub
Height
Moisture Requirement
Western
Chokecherry
4,500-8,500 feet
6-10 feet
moderate
Sagebrush
4,500-9,500 feet
4-6 feet
low
Fourwing Saltbrush
4,000-8,000 feet
0-4 feet
low
What weather conditions affect the behavior of a
forest fire?
Temperature:
● When underbrush receives solar radiation, it evaporates
internal moisture, allowing them to be more susceptible to
burning
● Higher susceptibility to burning: more underbrush ignites
faster, spreading fire quickly.
● Afternoons are usually the hottest, and therefore the most
likely time for fires to start or spread.
What weather conditions affect the behavior of a
forest fire?
Wind:
● Most unpredictable factor
● Supplies fire with oxygen, giving it more energy
● Stronger winds can push fire into a certain direction, accelerating it
● Makes fuel (underbrush) dry faster by transporting moisture
● Large fires can develop their own, very strong, wind patterns
Spotting:
•
•
•
Embers from fire are picked up by wind and can land outside of fire area
Can start new fires or accelerate growth of fire
Usually the reason for fires crossing roads, rivers, etc.
What weather conditions affect the behavior of a
forest fire?
Moisture:
● Amount of water vapor in the air
● Moisture absorbs heat from fire, making fuels harder to ignite
● When air is saturated with moisture, moisture is released as
rain
○
○
Greatly raises moisture levels in fuels
Helps extinguish fires
How will the simulation be created?
•
Plant Class
•
•
Class →
Majority of actors
Two Sub-classes
•
•
Variables not applicable to both
Methods apply to all
Sub-class →
Variables →
Variables →
Tree
Shrub
barkThick
branchStart
leafType
shrubType
Methods →
Plant
burnRate
moisture
elevMin
elevMax
height
age
Prox
resist()
checkProx()
How will the simulation be created?
•
Fire Class
o
o
o
o
o
Class →
Not in the original world
Variables →
startType based on user Input
Has a chance to spot
Will remove the objects from the world
Methods →
Might go out on its own
Fire
startType
Temperature
spotChance
windSpeed
windDirect
burn()
getSpotChance()
spot()
getWindInfo()
goOut()
jumpWater()
How will the simulation be created?
•
•
Very simple
Chance to block fire based on


thickness of river/lake
side in which fire approaches
Class →
Water
Method →
blockFire()
Hypothesis
Based on preliminary research, we predict:
If a simulation of a forest consisting of densely spaced trees
featuring thin bark, shallow roots, low branches, and resinous
wood in a dry, windy climate is ignited, then the simulation will
demonstrate higher temperatures and a faster spread rate
than a forest with thick bark, high moisture content, and mature
trees because these characteristics are reflected in real-world
wildfires.
Conclusion
•
•
We ask for funding and access to information to help us
expand upon our simulation to model real-world situations
more accurately.
o Research different variables (trees, weather conditions, distributions, etc.),
running and testing the simulation, increase workforce so simulation is ready
for this summer,...
Simulation would allow effective response to and
reduced effects of future wildfires such as the
Waldo Canyon Fire.
Photo credits
http://public.media.smithsonianmag.com/legacy_blog/05_22_2013_forest-fire.jpg
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/0/03/Waldocanyon.jpg/300px-Waldocanyon.jpg
http://appraisalforensicsinc.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/07/waldo-canyon-fire-1.jpg
http://www.animatedgif.net/fireexplosions/explosion2_e0.gif
http://s454.photobucket.com/user/oldcatman/media/forest_fire_hg_clr.gif.html
http://www.treeinabox.com/Ponderosa-Pine.html
http://www.realchristmastrees.org/dnn/Education/TreeVarieties/ConcolorFir.aspx
http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/colorado+blue+spruce
http://calphotos.berkeley.edu/imgs/512x768/0000_0000/1012/0856.jpeg
http://www.tarleton.edu/Departments/range/Shrublands/Miscellaneous/miscshrub.html
http://www.nrcs.usda.gov/wps/portal/nrcs/detail/mt/about/?cid=nrcs144p2_057763
Bibliography
All About Fire. (n.d.). Retrieved February 21, 2014, from National Fire
Protection Association website: https://www.nfpa.org/press-room/
reporters-guide-to-fire-and-nfpa/all-about-fire
Bonsor, K. (n.d.). How Wildfires Work: Weather's Role in Wildfires. Retrieved
February 21, 2014, from HowStuffWorks.com website:
http://science.howstuffworks.com/nature/natural-disasters/wildfire2.htm
Colorado's Major Tree Species. (n.d.). Retrieved February 21, 2014, from Colorado State
University website: http://csfs.colostate.edu/pages/major-tree-species.html
Cottrell, W. H., Jr. (2004). The Book of Fire. Missoula, MT: Mountain Press
Publishing.
Bibliography (cont.)
Hix, E. (Ed.). (n.d.). Heat Transfer. Retrieved February 21, 2014, from Auburn
website: https://fp.auburn.edu/fire/heat_transfer.htm
Klett, J., Fahey, B., & Cox, R. (2008, July). Native Shrubs for Colorado
Landscapes. Retrieved March 7, 2014, from Colorado State University
website: http://www.ext.colostate.edu/pubs/garden/07422.html
Wildfire Causes. (n.d.). Retrieved February 21, 2014, from Fire and Aviation
Management website: http://www.nps.gov/fire/wildland-fire/learning-center/
fire-in-depth/wildfire-causes.cfm
Wildfires across Colorado. (2012, June 6). Retrieved February 21, 2014, from
NASA website: http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/fires/main/usa/
colo-20120626.html
Download
Related flashcards
Create Flashcards