The energy challenge adopting clean tech
- how quickly will (can) the world change?
Prof Ray Wills
Director and Partner
Duda&Wills
Adjunct Professor
The University of Western Australia
Chief Adviser
Sustainable Energy Association of Australia
Reconstruction of Regional and Global
Temperature for the Past 11,300 Years
Shaun A. Marcott,* Jeremy D. Shakun, Peter U. Clark, Alan C. Mix 2013, Science 339, 1198
Adoption of technology
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The natural turnover and retirement of appliances,
buildings and vehicles can bring about a modest
penetration of sustainable energy in the next ten years.
However, adoption of new technology is often not just
‘natural’
The transition to sustainable energy, like many new
technology shifts, will be more rapid with changes
favoured by:
 policy measures and regulation;
 consumer sentiment;
 pricing advantage.
Roger’s diffusion curve
Technology adoption rates – US
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Will electric cars be dishwashers or VCRs?
(Will there ever be any more dishwashers??)
NY Times
Technology adoption rates - vehicles
Zoepf 2011
Technology adoption - manufacturers
Zoepf 2011
Technology adoption rates - vehicles
Zoepf 2011
Technology adoption rates
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Marked decrease in developmental lag
Innovation/development of new products
Supply side capabilities
Market competition
Growing consumer expectations
Higher level of communication
between consumers - blogspace
Fleet/building/operations managers – and CFOs
Regulation
Energy security
Renewable energy growth
Data IEA
0
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Global renewables 2013?
600
500
400
Wind
300
Solar
Wind - est GWEC
200
Solar - est
100
Data UNEP
Electricity generation - Europe
Electricity generation - UK
Electricity generation - Australia
Australian electricity demand 2012…
Data AEMO
Electricity market projections – WA
Sustainable energy
and energy efficiency
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Energy efficiency in all forms
Distributed, renewable energy
Known costs, resource life 1000++ years
Stored energy in commodities, desal
Energy storage key to:

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improved energy delivery
increased reliability
reduced emissions
Technology energy use
www.epri.com
Global electricity growth
Trends in car prices and CO2 2002-2010
How clean are Europe’s cars?
Global renewables
Rapid change
- Personal mobility
Private transport
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Fuel efficiency, other energy sources
Transport
Energy storage key
New technologies may be disruptive
Electric mass transit
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Siemens Bordeaux
light rail
Bombardier wireless
light rail
Slim Ride -15 passengers
Series 700 Shinkansen
train – 285 km/h
Electric mass transit
Commercial
vehicles
Smith Newton
electric truck
Mega electric diesel hybrids
 London Bus
 Haul Pak + Earthmover
 Honda prime mover
 BYD Electric forklift
 Oshkosh Military Vehicle
Flying and floating fuels
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February 25, 2008 –
Virgin Atlantic Stages the First Biofuel Flight
October 30, 2007 - U.S.A.F. Tests New
Synthetic Fuel on Plane
February 14, 2011 –
Qantas follows US Military to
algae biofuels
September 13, 2011 –
US Navy announces by 2016
Green Strike Group, powered
by renewable diesel-electric
engines, nuclear power and
aviation biofuels, is able to
operate independent of fossil
fuel supply line threat or disruption
Smart grids, smart houses (and farms)
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Integrated energy planning
Smart grids to coordinate the actions of devices such as
loads & generators
Green cities
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Global
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Australia
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Tianjin Eco-City China
Ulsan Ecocity Korea
Masdar City UAE
City of Sydney – 70% CO2 reduction by 2030
City of Melbourne
Stirling City Centre, Perth
City of Fremantle
Yanchep – 2 x 100 000
Local government critical
Solar on Australian homes
1400000
3000000
1200000
2500000
1000000
2000000
800000
600000
400000
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Capacity (kW)
Number1000000
(est.)
Capacity (est.)
Dec-13
Sep-13
Jun-13
Mar-13
Dec-12
Sep-12
Jun-12
Mar-12
Dec-11
Sep-11
Jun-11
2001-2010
Dec-13
Sep-13
Jun-13
Mar-13
Dec-12
Sep-12
Jun-12
Mar-12
Dec-11
Sep-11
Jun-11
Mar-11
2001-2010
0
Mar-11
500000
200000
0
1500000
Number
955,614 solar installs in Australia, total 2.31 GW of capacity; output
estimated 2500 GWh of electricity in the 12 months to November 2012.
WA - 127 000 rooftops with solar, a total of 275 MW of solar capacity
Mandurah (postcode 6210) – over 6300 homes, 11.7 MW of capacity
Canning Vale area (postcode 6155) and the Wanneroo area (postcode
6055) next two largest - similar numbers ~ 4000 homes and ~ 8 MW.
Solar on Australian homes
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WA - 104 000 rooftops with solar, a total of 218 MW of solar capacity
Mandurah (postcode 6210) - over 5200 homes and 9.4 MW of capacity
Canning Vale area (postcode 6155) and the Wanneroo area (postcode
6055) next two largest - similar numbers 3200 homes and 6.4 MW.
Solar on
WA homes
City of Cockburn
Solar on your home
Solar in South Australia
When the winds of change blow,
some people build walls
and others build windmills.
Chinese proverb