Requirement
Estimation
Presented By:
Tina M. Underhill, BABOK Contributor
VP Marketing & Communication Nominee
IIBA Greater Boston Chapter
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Agenda
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About the Speaker
Housekeeping
Session Overview
BABOK 2.0 Definitions
The BA Role
BA Tasks
BA Activities
BABOK 3.0 Concepts
Wrap Up
Q&A
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About the Speaker
Tina M. Underhill is a senior-level Business Analyst Consultant with over 25 years of business
operations experience within the finance, insurance, and retail industries at such companies as:
AT&T, Key Bank, Humana Health Insurance, [FPIC] The Doctors, Bank of America, GM Financial,
Express Scripts, Commerce/Mapfre, and TJX.
As an active member of the International Institute of Business Analysis (IIBA) she is contributing to
the BABOK version 3.0 under Solution Assessment & Validation. As an active member of the IIBA
Greater Boston Chapter she is a nominee for the VP of Marketing & Communication.
In 2012, she served as a panelist at Project Summit & Business Analyst World in Burlington on Agile
Requirements and will be presenting this year about Agile Requirements.
Currently, she is serving as a Principal Business Analysis Consultant with Content Raven, a cloudbased content control solution software company [Agile], as well as serving as a Business Analysis
Consultant at Staples’ corporate headquarters in Framingham on the dotcom team [Waterfall/Agile].
She holds multiple AS Degrees from Florida State College in Business and IT disciplines.
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Housekeeping
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Respect the conversation – keep your phones on MUTE.
Realize that we won’t solve everything in the session.
Feel free to politely “interrupt” the speaker – if you have a question, make sure
it gets captured in the question space. We may not answer it now (parking lot),
but it is best to capture thoughts and questions in the moment they are
relevant.
The Parking Lot will be used for questions that cannot be answered, issues or
unrelated topics – we will post directives within 48 business hours after the
session.
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Session Overview
This session is intended to:
•Provide definitions and glossary terms from the BABOK disciplines that are
intended to guide the Business Analyst down the right path
•Help BAs understand what the process is, what the many tasks and activities
that are performed inside the process and what the differences are within a
Waterfall and Agile methodologies.
•Showcase the Business Analyst’s positive contribution in Requirement
Estimation within both the Waterfall and Agile methodologies in both large and
small organizations.
•How to use real ingenuity to get the right estimation plan into place.
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Definitions:
Business Analysis Body of Knowledge
BABOK version 2.0 defines Requirement Estimation in the following area:
Knowledge Area – Chapter 9: Techniques - 9.10 Estimation (p.70)
This technique is assigned to the following Knowledge Areas in the BOK (v.2):
Knowledge Area – Chapter 2: Business Analysis Planning & Monitoring
Knowledge Area – Chapter 5: Enterprise Analysis
There is a GAP: The BOK does not address how to plan for “construction”.
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Chapter 9 – Techniques
Section 9.10 - Estimation: Estimating techniques forecast the cost and effort
involved in pursuing a course of action.
Good Forecasting
Changes the budget
POSITIVELY
Estimates can help stakeholders make better decisions; but can also have
stakeholders “assuming” estimates are commitments!
Prevent a RISK: Ensure the stakeholders know the difference!
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What is the Business Analyst’s role?
Insurance
Retail
Finance
SMALL
Or
LARGE
Enterprise:
Size
Culture
Industry
Location
IT
Or
Business
Onsite
Vs
Offsite
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What is the Process?
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Who is in the Process?
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Estimation Methods – the How
Method
Definition
When to Use
9.10.3.1 Analogous
Agile
A “top-down” approach performed at the
beginning of a project/phase with more
estimates performed when more is known.
When there is little known.
9.10.3.2 Parametric
Waterfall
Parameters are used along with how many
there will be. For example:
one use case = 20 hours,
10 cases x 20 hours = 200 hours.
When there is enough history available to be
used as a basis of comparison.
9.10.3.3 Bottom-up
Waterfall
Includes deliverables, activities, tasks, and
estimates from stakeholders. These are then
rolled up to get a total for all activities and
tasks. It is more granular.
When you want to produce the most accurate
and defensible estimates.
9.10.3.4 Rolling wave
Agile
This involves refining of the initial estimates
for all the activities so the estimates for the
next iteration can be made.
When the end of an iteration approaches.
9.10.3.5 Three-point
Waterfall
Uses scenarios in these three stages: most
optimistic, most pessimistic, and most likely
estimates.
When Use Cases are used versus granular
requirements.
9.10.3.6 Historic
Agile
Uses “history” as the basis. Similar to
analogous but not used for just top-down
estimation.
When there are detailed tasks and there are
prior project records.
9.10.3.7 Expert Judgment
Agile
Relies on the expertise of those who have
done the work in the past.
When the same resources are available or the
resource has a principal level of knowledge.
9.10.3.8 Delphi
Agile
Uses a combination of expert judgment and
history estimation techniques. They include:
individual estimates, sharing the estimates
with experts, and having several rounds until
consensus is reached and then using the
average.
When an average can be derived by taking the
optimistic, pessimistic and 4x the most likely,
then dividing by 6.
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Analogous vs Parametric
Business Case: Annual 5k road race, that has three primary components: marketing, registration, and race-day
coordination.
Marketing: 500 flyers are needed to be printed up at a cost $0.20 each.
Details: It took two weeks for the flyers to be printed for last year
Registration: Design an on-line registration form and the cost to host on the website.
Details: Last year it took one week to design and the cost to host the registration website was $850.00
Coordination: There are four people used to coordinate the race.
Details: Each resource will be paid $25 per hour and they will be working an estimated seven hours, based on the race last
year.
Analogous
How long will this take for the Marketing materials?
How much will the Registration cost to host?
Parametric
How much will the Marketing cost?
How much will the Coordination cost?
How long will the Registration take?
How long will this take to Coordinate?
Summary: Both of these methods can be used for duration and cost because of historical info and expert
judgment. The difference is that analogous is less accurate.
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Bottom-Up
Business Case: Annual 5k road race, that has three primary components: marketing, registration, and race-day
coordination.
Marketing: 500 flyers are needed to be printed up at a cost $0.20 each.
Details: It took two weeks for the flyers to be printed for last year
Registration: Design an on-line registration form and the cost to host on the website.
Details: Last year it took one week to design and the cost to host the registration website was $850.00
Coordination: There are four people used to coordinate the race.
Details: Each resource will be paid $25 per hour and they will be working an estimated seven hours, based on the race last
year.
Task 1: Determine actual cost of flyers
Task 2: Get estimates from three printers
Task 3: Get actual costs
What other tasks would we perform for this granular estimate?
Summary: This is a detailed assessment of the resources, capabilities, and amounts are used to determine
an accurate duration or cost estimate.
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Three-Point
Project: Introduction of a three-tiered Customer Service Resolution Center
Details: Three-tiers include: Routine Questions; Medium Questions, Complex/Supervisory Questions
Resolution Times: Routine Questions take 1-3 minutes, Medium Questions take 4-6 minutes, Complex Questions take 6+ minutes
Staff Allocation: 50 Routine CSRs, 20 Medium CRSs, 10 Complex CSRs
Call Volume: 100-120 routine calls per rep per day with call transfers to the Medium and Complex areas
Task 1: Determine the best-case estimate
Task 2: Determine the most likely estimate
Task 3: Determine the worst-case estimate
Estimate = (T1 + 4[T2] + T3) / 6
Summary: This is a statistical formula with a weighted average to base your estimation of phone coverage.
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Rolling Wave
Project: 10-day Vacation at Walt Disney World in Lake Buena Vista, FL
Stakeholders: You and your family , including 3 kids (6-boy), (11-girl) (16-girl) have never been to the “World”.
I ternary: Flight from Worcester Airport to Orlando International Airport on Aug 3 – Aug 12
Details: There are (4) Theme Parks, (2) Water Parks, Downtown Disney Marketplace, and many other activities including
fishing excursions, horse back riding, golf, guided tours
What is needed: Theme Park tickets, Water Park tickets, meals, daily guide plans
Decision 1: Tickets: One park per day, park hopper, waterpark and more
Decision 2: Meals: Sit-down dinners, quick service meals, dinner shows, ala carte, grocery store
Decision 3: What is important?
DAY 1
3 Details
DAY 2
Meal Place
Park
DAY 3
Meal Place
Park
Must have rides
WHAT IS YOUR PLAN?
DAY 4
Meal Place
Menu
Park
All rides
Evening details
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Rolling Wave
Project: 10-day Vacation at Walt Disney World in Lake Buena Vista, FL
Stakeholders: You and your family , including 3 kids (6-boy), (11-girl) (16-girl) have never been to the “World”.
I ternary: Flight from Worcester Airport to Orlando International Airport on Aug 3 – Aug 12
Details: There are (4) Theme Parks, (2) Water Parks, Downtown Disney Marketplace, and many other activities including
fishing excursions, horse back riding, golf, guided tours
What is needed: Theme Park tickets, Water Park tickets, meals, daily guide plans
Decision 1: 5-day Ticket with Park Hopper and Water Park Fun & More Options
Decision 2: Meals will include 3 sit-down dinners, Mickey’s backyard BBQ, and the famous
Hoop Dee Doo Musical Revue, and then some quick service meal options.
Decision 3: Planning in some resort time for actual rest is a must!
DAY 1
Arrive on Magical Express
Check In
Hit the Parks!
DAY 2
Breakfast at Resort
MK
Lunch at Crystal Palace
Day break at Resort
Mickey’s Backyard BBQ
DAY 3
AK – Breakfast at Tusker
House
Expedition Everest
Kali River Rapids
Lunch at Pizzafari
Kilimanjaro Safaris
Maharajah Jungle Trek
DAY 4
Breakfast at Resort
Blizzard Beach
Chair Lift
Summit Plummet
Melt-Away Bay
Lunch at Avalunch
Pulled Pork Slaw Dog
Mac and Cheese Dog
Head back to Resort
Hoop Dee Doo Musical Revue
Summary: Rolling wave is planning from one time period to the next with each additional time period being
more detailed.
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Historic – Expert - Delphi
Project: Convert legacy customer service platform to new environment
Details: The claims system was converted from January 2011 – April 2013 and included over 20000 work hours across all
areas.
Phases will included: Define, Estimate, Construct, Test, Implement
Determine Fact 1: How long did it take for the claim system conversion?
January 2011 – January 2012 = 12 months
January 2012 – January 2013 = 12 months
January 2013 – April 2013 =
3 months
(27 months x 4 weeks = 108 weeks) x 40 hours = 4320 hours
Determine Fact 2: How many man hours were allocated?
# of resources on project = 5
History is the basis for this estimate
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Historic – Expert - Delphi
Project: Convert legacy customer service platform to new environment
Details: The claims system was converted from January 2011 – April 2013 and included over 20000 work hours across all
areas.
Phases will included: Define, Estimate, Construct, Test, Implement
Determine Fact 1: How long did it take for the claim system conversion?
Determine Fact 2: How many man hours were allocated?
Hx Data
Interviews
Brainstorming
What kind of questions could we come up with?
Whose expert judgment would we rely on?
Summary: Historic estimates take statistical history, Expert Judgment takes addition factors into
consideration, Delphi is a combination of the two.
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BA Tasks: Waterfall
Technique
Methodology
BA Role
Analogous
Waterfall
BA starts from scratch on a very high level.
Parametric
Waterfall
BA draws from similar projects and
parameters of similar size, scale and
functionality. [Can also be done in Agile]
Bottom-up
Waterfall
BA defines the estimate by specific
requirement details.
Three Point
Waterfall
BA draws from Use Cases/Scenarios in Easy,
Medium, and Complex states.
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BA Tasks: Agile
Technique
Methodology
BA Role
Rolling Wave
Agile
BA uses one iteration estimate to form the
next one.
Historic
Agile
BA draws a strong analogy to projects and
tasks of similar size, scale and functionality.
Expert
Agile
BA draws from the expertise of the
developers and their past experiences.
Delphi
Agile
BA draws from history and expertise.
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Definitions:
Business Analysis Body of Knowledge
BABOK version 3.0 defines Requirement Estimation in the following area:
Knowledge Area – Techniques - Estimation:
Specific content is in the DRAFT stage but it does change the definition to be
aligned with agreement, WBS, constraints, and includes assumptions.
The following methods are being considered to be changed: analogous, three-point, historic, expert.
Some new methods may enter, for example, ROM – rough order of magnitude.
Some things also being considered are: accuracy of the estimate, sources, precision/reliability,
contributors, and usage considerations (strengths/limitations).
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THINK OUTSIDE OF THE BOX!
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Conclusion and
Questions
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