“Sustainability & Climate Change” Challenges & Way forward…. Presented By: Nalin Rawal Chief - Business Head (Agribusiness Solutions) CLIMATE CHANGE - CHALLANGES Rapidly rising greenhouse gases Increasing land and sea temperatures Increased frequency and magnitude of extreme weather events Risk of fresh water availability Sustainability of agriculture and food security CLIMATE CHANGE - IMPACT Warming expected to be more over areas in northern latitudes in 21st century Warming of about 0.2°C per decade is projected for next two decades Increases in the amount of precipitation in high latitudes, and decrease in most subtropical land regions. The Drought-affected areas will increase Hot extremes, heat waves and heavy precipitation events more frequent Weather predictions in Tropics will become more challenging IMPACT – AGRICULTURE The length of growing seasons & yield in semi-arid and arid areas shall decrease In some countries 50% yield reduction is expected in rainfed agriculture by 2020 Crop yields to decrease by 30% in Central and South Asia by the mid-21st century Crop yields expected to increase up to 20% in East and Southeast Asia Expected salinisation and desertification of agricultural land in drier areas of Latin America Increased incidences of Pest Outbreak due to warmer hot days and nights Productivity of important crops is projected to decrease CLIMATE CHANGE - IMPACT INDIA Climate Change Impact on Agriculture India witnessing irregular monsoon / temperature pattern change in sowing and harvesting timings / affecting quality of the produce Large variability of rainfall in Rajasthan (semi arid regions) Changing cropping pattern Unseasonal Dust Storms in some pockets Emerging risk to horticultural crops More frequent extreme weather conditions Causing sudden outbreak in incidence of pest and diseases PROPOSED STRATEGIES ABOUT SKYMET An Agriculture Risk Solutions and Weather Monitoring Company • Captive network of 2700+ Automated Weather Stations (AWS) • Expertise in Crop yield forecasting & Risk Management • In house Crop monitoring & yield modeling team • In house Remote Sensing & GIS expertise • Strong network of 160+ field staff in all major states PRESENCE 2700+ AWS Locations 15 States Head Office: Noida Regional Office(S) : 4 (Patna, Jaipur, Mumbai & Hyderabad) SOLUTIONS OFFERED Weather Forecasts – short, medium & long range Crop yield & acreage estimations Live weather data Crop Risk management services Supply chain solutions Weather Forecast WEATHER FORECASTING 2012 2013 2012 2013 2014 Skymet Forecast 95% of LPA 103% of LPA 91% of LPA Actual Monsoon 93% of LPA 105% of LPA 89% of LPA MONTHLY RAINFALL FORECASTS Ambegaon (PUNE) – SAMPLE (June – July’13) 45 Weekly Spread View (mm) 40 35 30 Wet Spell 25 20 15 10 Dry Spell 5 0 Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 Week 5 GIS & UAV Based Crop - Acreage / Health Monitoring & Yield Forecasting CROP ACREAGE STATUS – PUNJAB PADDY (Kharif’2013) Paddy Crop Sowing Status till mid June Paddy Crop Sowing Status till 1st week of July Paddy Crop Sowing Status till End of July Crop Sowing Status end of Season ACERAGE – PUNJAB DISTRICT WISE PADDY District wise Paddy acreage UAV Based Crop Monitoring UNMANNED AERIAL VEHICLE (UAV) Completely automatic & remote controlled Ability to reach maximum of 400m from ground Captures 1.4 Km x 1.4 Km image (ground coverage) Horizontal coverage in one flight 4Km radius Continuously captures video Continuously sends images at every 5 sec Provides Geo referenced images UAV IMAGES – 150M UAV IMAGES – 100M UAV IMAGES – 75M UAV IMAGES – 50M Groundnut Cotton WEB PORTAL | UAV BASED FARM MONITORING WEB PORTAL | UAV BASED FARM MONITORING PROCESS FLOW - CROP YIELD ESTIMATION FINAL CROP ESTIMATE – CROP CUTTING EXPERIMENTS Skymet provides Acreage & Final yield estimation (95% accuracy) GUNA – SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION OF SOYABEAN CROP Legend - Acreage as per Govt. 25th Sep’14 1.95 (Lac Ha) Remote Sensing based Acreages 1.83 (Lac Ha) Est. Yield as per CCE/Field Survey 1143 (Kg/Ha) Est. Production 2.1 (Lac Ton) - Soybean Satellite Image – Landsat 8 Acquisition Date – 21th Sep 2014 District – Guna Resolution - 30M Real Time Crop Advisory MODEL – REAL TIME CROP ADVISORY Current Weather & short range Forecast (at Block / Taluka/ Distt level) Real Time AgroAdvisory Agri-Domain Expertise MODEL – REAL TIME CROP ADVISORY Paddy (Pusa Basmati 1121) Current Weather & Forecast Actual Condition Temp-43 0 C ; RH-20% No Rain / Moisture stress Crop Advisory 1) 2) Drain water from nursery and fill fresh water on daily basis Delay Transplanting by -7 days GIS image Sales Employee Marketing person Distribution person Seed Production Farmers Retailers Dealers Pest Forecasting Model PEST FORECAST MODEL The model combines three parameters of the disease triangle: Crop (host) Pathogen (present at field) Environment (monitored by Automated Weather Station) • Hourly observations • Specific geographies Environment Crop stage • GIS or UAV mapping • Crop diagnostic • Pest and disease infestation alert • Real time basis Pest/Disease BROWN PLANT HOPPER – PADDY Crop stage information Paddy Monitor using AWS Brown Plant Hopper (BPH) BPH Life Cycle Eggs Hatchability highest at 25°C BPH Population Max 28-30°C RH >70 High Nitrogen levels BENEFITS Predicts likely occurrence or attack of different pest & diseases Accurate advisories on prophylactic measure to prevent disease/pest incidence Improve marketing activities and inventory planning at the dealer/retail point Mobile advisories to suggest company’s products to farmers Increase revenue for the company Strengthen company’s brand image Crop Risk Management CUSTOMISED CROP RISK MANAGEMENT EXISTING Drawbacks: PROPOSED Benefits: • Inadequate product • Customized product • Cryptic payout calculations • Transparent payout calculations • Opaque payouts • Equitable payouts • Mistrust on insurance • Trust build-up on insurance PRODUCT CUSTOMIZATION (PEPSICO) – POTATO (PATIALA) Earlier Product Modified Product TRANSPARENCY – INFORMATION & PAYOUTS Agri input Supply Chain / Distribution ACREAGE STATUS – PUNJAB PADDY (Kharif’2013) Paddy Crop Sowing Status till mid June Paddy Crop Sowing Status till 1st week of July Paddy Crop Sowing Status till End of July Crop Sowing Status end of Season DISTRICT WISE ACREAGE STATUS – PUNJAB PADDY (Kharif’2013) District wise Time wise Paddy acreage FERTILIZER CONSUMPTION PATTERN - I FERTILIZER CONSUMPTION PATTERN - II Pady Area in Zira Block is 12,692 Ha. Spatial Distribution of Paddy Crop in Zira Block - Firozpur Landsat Satellite Image Resolution: 30M THANK YOU Skymet Weather Services Pvt Ltd Plot no 10/11, Sector-125, Noida www.skymetweather.com info@skymetweather.com