Philip Butterworth-Hayes
Editorial Director, PMI Media Ltd
About us
PMI Media Ltd is an international aviation consultancy specialising in air
transport infrastructure projects. Recent airport projects include:
• Helping to compose a vision statement for ACI Europe
• Airport development plans for facilities in the UK, Norway and Sweden
• Working with US states and an association of air taxi operators seeking
to develop software bridges between air taxi operators and potential
customers at small airports
• Developing a business plan for a US airport seeking to develop an air
cargo ‘airport city’ complex
• Helping a major UK regional airport write a ten-year business plan,
including 40-year traffic forecasts
• Analysing hardware buying trends among airport BOT managers
• www.pmi-media.com and www.trainingandsimulationforum.net
The world is changing…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rhpPhvWvLgk
Everyone wants different types of
airports
The passenger wants the shortest, cheapest, most comfortable journey
from origin to destination, using local facilities and a “seamless” travel
mode.
The aircraft operator wants the passenger to take the most expensive travel
alternative offered, and to exploit this desire to travel through offering as
many value-added services as possible.
The airport operator wants the passenger to spend money at the airport on
goods and services, to linger, but not too long.
The government wants the passenger to travel via remote airports, far from
urban areas , to minimise political dissent and optimise tax and wealth
generating activities.
Local communities want the economic benefits of living next to thriving
airports but not the disruption they cause.
Result?
You will not be able to please everyone but, in general, the type of airport
that emerges is a political, rather than a predict-and-provide, outcome.
In Europe, the trend is for airline growth rates to exceed the capacity of
major airports - if traffic doubles every 20 years it is unlikely the continent’s
major hubs will be able to double their capacity over the same period given
the environmental restrictions on runway developments. As a result:
• Other continents will replace Europe as global hubs between east and
west (already happening)
• Demand for new services will be met increasingly by regional facilities
(already happening)
• Increasing political mechanisms used to balance capacity and demand
(already happening)
Europe is losing aviation market share
1
ATLANTA GA, US(ATL)
89 331 622
1.5
2
BEIJING, CN(PEK)
73 948 113
13.1
3
CHICAGO IL, US(ORD)
66 774 738
4.1
4
LONDON, GB(LHR)
65 884 143
( 0.2)
5
TOKYO, JP(HND)
64 211 074
3.7
6
LOS ANGELES CA, US(LAX)
59 070 127
4.5
7
PARIS, FR(CDG)
58 167 062
0.5
8
DALLAS/FORT WORTH TX,
US(DFW)
56 906 610
1.6
9
FRANKFURT, DE(FRA)
53 009 221
4.1
10
DENVER CO, US(DEN)
52 209 377
4.1
11
HONG KONG, HK(HKG)
50 348 960
10.5
12
MADRID, ES(MAD)
49 844 596
3.0
13
DUBAI, AE(DXB)
47 180 628
15.4
14
NEW YORK NY, US(JFK)
46 514 154
1.4
15
AMSTERDAM, NL(AMS)
45 211 749
3.8
16
JAKARTA, ID(CGK)
44 355 998
19.4
17
BANGKOK, TH(BKK)
42 784 967
5.6
18
SINGAPORE, SG(SIN)
42 038 777
13.0
19
GUANGZHOU, CN(CAN)
40 975 673
10.6
20
SHANGHAI, CN(PVG)
40 578 621
26.4
Aviation will find new ways to reintegrate with society
Technical trends – advances in smaller aircraft designs. Longer ranges off
short runways, more aircraft off single-runway airports (LGW around
250,000 movements off a single runway), quieter aircraft, personal aircraft.
VLJs and A380s.
Sociological trends – megacities , swallowing up smaller towns, making
remote airports city-centre airports. Globalisation developing so air travel is
normal, not special.
Internet giving power to the passenger – increasingly able to trade cost with
comfort, schedule and convenience. Aircraft operators must offer more
choice.
Political trends – environment falls down the political agenda as economic
priorities increase; capital cities v regions, de-centralisation of infrastructure
decision-making
Industry trends – the success of low cost models, increased affordability of
air travel
Fastest growing airport in the UK?
….Oxford
• Growth is up 12.2% in 2011 over 2010
• In 2011 the runway strength was reassessed at a PCN of 38 and is now
suitable for use by a number of heavier regional jets including the
Embraer E-Jet series and the A318/319 family.
• The airport is now routinely visited by larger jet types, including the
Embraer EMB-190 and Avro RJ with seating capacity of 100 plus.
• Oxford Airport is also prepared for the next generation of regional jets
including the Sukhoi Superjet and the Bombardier C-Series, meaning 110
passengers will be able to fly more than 2,670 nm out of Oxford –
covering destinations as far as Sharm El Sheikh in Egypt.
• The larger 135-seat CS300 will be able to cover most of Europe from
Oxford. The new runway length enables longer range private jets such as
the Global and G550 family to undertake transatlantic flights on a
commercial basis.
Around the world city centre airports
are booming
London City
Planning for a 2012 Olympic boom. London City Airport (LCY) saw
more than three million passengers pass through its gates in 2011,a
7.6% increase over 2010. The airport is looking forward to building on
this further in the coming 12 months, increasing leisure and business
traveller passenger numbers, as well as growing the dominant
inbound market from European business hubs and New York City.
Belfast City
Extending into Europe. In October 2011 the airport launched its first
direct services into the European continent with a flight to
Amsterdam, the first of seven new European routes operated by
bmibaby, with Geneva beginning in December 2011 and Malaga,
Faro, Alicante, Palma, Ibiza starting in 2012. Just completed a private
investment of £15 million into a new terminal.
Stockholm Bromma – we will hear elsewhere today of progress
Especially in north America
Billy Bishop Toronto City Airport
Passengers up 37 per cent. Expected to surpass its estimate of 1.5
million passengers for 2011, an increase of 37 per cent over 2010, and
double the number of passengers it served in 2009.
Washington Reagan
Passengers up from 12,800, 858 in 2009 to 14,499,823 in 2010 – or
13.2%.
Chicago Midway
Midway has recently been named "fastest-growing" airport in the
U.S. by anna.aero. Indeed, Midway is one of the fastest-growing
airports in the U.S. with steady growth in passenger traffic. Through
October 2011, passenger activity was up 6.7 per cent from the same
period a year ago.
As new ways are being found to
balance economic growth with
environmental concerns
St Paul Downtown
Planning major growth. The airport is forecasting operations will increase
from 111,870 in 2010 to 137,310 in 2025 with the number of aircraft based
there rising from 105 to 128.
San Diego International Airport
San Diego International Airport's expansion program, dubbed "The Green
Build", is expected to help the airport meet current and future travel
demands. Expected to be complete in early 2013, the project focuses on
expansion and enhancements at Terminal 2. Traffic in 2011 will be around
1% lower than in 2010 – but international passenger numbers are over 63%.
The traditional view…
City centre airports - negatives
• Unpopular with local residents - noise and air quality
• Limited room for expansion and commercial opportunities
• Limited connectivity (motorways, high-speed rail)
• Limited aircraft types and range of destinations
• Few hub and spoke opportunities for airlines
City centre airports – positives
• Popular with passengers for easy access
• Valuable land assets
• Very fast journey from arrivals hall to aircraft
• Linked to the community
Remote hubs – negatives
Expensive to plan, build and operate
Far from city centres
Not generally popular with LCCs
Not linked to local communities, more of a global player
Remote hubs - positives
Multiple opportunities to develop airport city businesses – MRO, logistics etc
Multiple opportunities for growth, expansion, hub and spoke operations
Multi-modal link opportunities
Lower noise footprint over populated areas
The big change…
Power to the passenger
The internet is slowly passing power from the infrastructure providers and
aircraft operators to the individual passengers who will increasingly be able
to trade between price, convenience, comfort.
http://www.flyvictor.com/
“Victor allows members to book spare seats on private flights already
chartered by jet owners, meaning owners can cut down on the cost of flying.
To date the web-based business has been funded by Mr Jackson, who came
up with the idea when his regular Palma de Mallorca to London Heathrow
flight was discontinued by BMI.”
With such software tools passengers are slowly creating their own air travel
system, in the same way digital television/internet subscribers are creating
their own viewing media.
The consequence
Full fare airlines will continue to grow/consolidate activities
Hubs will continue to develop in remote locations
BUT
As the twenty-first century becomes more urban in its thinking:
• New city centres will emerge which will re-integrate urban societies with
local businesses
• There will be a rebalance of the environment V economy debate as issues
are better understood
• Transport choice power will become increasingly democratic – people will
make their airline operations.