STRATOSPHERIC OZONE DEPLETION
OZONE DEPLETING SUBSTANCES
Climate effects (atmospheric circulation)
Report of the Environmental Effects
Assessment Panel
26th Meeting of the Parties to the
United Nations Montreal Protocol
16-21 November 2014
Paris, France
Co-chairs: Prof Janet Bornman (Aus), Prof Min Shao (China), Prof Nigel Paul (UK)
HUMAN
HEALTH
CONSTRUCTION
MATERIALS
AIR &
WATER
CHEMISTRY
TERRESTRIAL AND AQUATIC
ECOSYSTEMS
(including crops and fisheries)
EFFECTS ON PEOPLE AND ENVIRONMENT
Report of the Environmental Effects
Assessment Panel
THE 2014 ASSESSMENT REPORTS SIGNIFICANT SCIENTIFIC ADVANCES
IN UNDERSTANDING THE MECHANISMS BY WHICH STRATOSPHERIC
OZONE DEPLETION CAN AFFECT HUMANS, OTHER ORGANISMS, AND
THE PHYSICAL AND CHEMICAL PROCESSES OF THE ENVIRONMENT,
PRIMARILY THROUGH RESPONSES TO UV RADIATION.
44 authors/co-authors from 17 countries, and 45 reviewers.
THIS SUMMARY WILL FOCUS ON THE MAJOR DEVELOPMENTS
Report
assessed
1600
researchOF
papers,
covering
subjectON
areas
from
RELEVANT
TO THE
EFFECTS
OZONE
DEPLETION
PEOPLE
cancer
to construction
polymers, andADVANCES)
from marine
AND biology
ECOSYSTEMS
(NOT MECHANISTIC
phytoplankton to global changes in UV radiation.
HUMAN
HEALTH
CONSTRUCTION
MATERIALS
AIR &
WATER
CHEMISTRY
TERRESTRIAL AND AQUATIC
ECOSYSTEMS
(including crops and fisheries)
EFFECTS ON PEOPLE AND ENVIRONMENT
STRATOSPHERIC OZONE DEPLETION
OZONE DEPLETING SUBSTANCES
Climate effects (atmospheric circulation)
INCREASED
ULTRAVIOLETB (UV-B)
RADIATION
HUMAN
HEALTH
CONSTRUCTION
MATERIALS
AIR &
WATER
CHEMISTRY
UV-B radiation
= 280-315nm
TERRESTRIAL AND AQUATIC
ECOSYSTEMS
(including crops and fisheries)
EFFECTS ON PEOPLE AND ENVIRONMENT
CHANGES IN UV-B RADIATION
WITH THE SUCCESSFUL MONTREAL PROTOCOL
With few exceptions,
changes in UV-B since
the 1990s are small,
and due less to the
effects of ozone
depletion than to
other factors (cloud;
snow and ice cover).
Arctic ozone depletion
Large short-term
in spring 2011 led to
increases in UV-B have
measured short-term
been measured at
increases (80-160%) in
some locations in
UV-B in Alaska,
response to episodic
Canada, Greenland &
decreases of ozone at
Scandinavia, and
high latitudes,
modelled increases
including the Northern
(15-25%) at lower
hemisphere.
latitudes.
CHANGES IN UV-B RADIATION
WITHOUT THE MONTREAL PROTOCOL
st century UV levels
Without
Montreal
Protocol,
by the
end of 21the
Now a the
body
of published
research
modelling
changes in UV
st century WITHOUT
around the
globe
would
exceeded,
often
levels
radiation
that
would
havehave
occurred
over the
21substantially,
previously experienced
even in
the most
extreme environments.
successful
control
of ODS.
WITH MONTREAL PROTOCOL
Values over 11 are considered
extreme
WITHOUT MONTREAL PROTOCOL
Maximum UVI without ozone
depletion is approx. 25
The calculated clear-sky UV index for November 2065 in the “expected future” (with the
Montreal Protocol) compared with that in the “world avoided” (with no Montreal Protocol).
From Newman and McKenzie, 2011
Human health and exposure to
solar UV radiation
INCREASED
ULTRAVIOLETB (UV-B)
RADIATION
HUMAN
HEALTH
CONSTRUCTION
MATERIALS
AIR &
WATER
CHEMISTRY
TERRESTRIAL AND AQUATIC
ECOSYSTEMS
(including crops and fisheries)
EFFECTS ON PEOPLE AND ENVIRONMENT
Human health and exposure to
solar UV radiation
Damaging effects
of too little UV
Damaging effects
of too much UV
RESEARCH OVER THE LAST 30 YEARS HAS CLARIFIED
THAT DAMAGE TO HUMAN HEALTH CAN RESULT
FROM EITHER TOO MUCH OR TOO LITTLE UV
RADIATION
WITH THE MONTREAL PROTOCOL (NOW)
THE BALANCE BETWEEN THESE CONTRASTING EFFECTS OF UV IS
LARGELY DETERMINED BY PERSONAL CIRCUMSTANCES AND
BEHAVIOUR
Human health and exposure to
solar UV radiation
With the Montreal protocol, changing behaviour
with regard to sun exposure by many fair-skinned
populations has probably had a more significant
effect on human health than increasing UV-B
irradiance due to ozone depletion.
Strategies to avoid over-exposure to solar UV
radiation remain important for public health, but
should aim to balance the harmful and beneficial
effects of sun exposure.
WITH THE MONTREAL PROTOCOL (NOW)
Human health and exposure to
solar UV radiation
Damaging effects
of too little UV
Damaging
Damaging
effects of
effects
of UV
too
too much
much UV
OZONE DEPLETION
PERSONAL CIRCUMSTANCES AND BEHAVIOUR
WITHOUT THE MONTREAL PROTOCOL (WORLD AVOIDED)
LARGE INCREASES IN UV, SO THAT THE DAMAGING EFFECTS
OF TOO MUCH UV BECOME DOMINANT.
Human health and exposure to
solar UV radiation
Damaging effects of
too much UV
SHORT TERM
LONG-TERM
SKIN
Sunburn
Increased skin-cancers
Basal cell & squamous cell carcinomas
Malignant melanoma
EYES
Inflammation
(photoconjunctivitis)
Increased cataract and other eye diseases
IMMUNE SYSTEM: immune suppression leading to increased
susceptibility to infection, reduced response to vaccinations
Human health and exposure to
solar UV radiation
Percentage increase in annual UV dose in 2030 in the “world avoided”
(with no Montreal Protocol), compared with the present day.
From van Dijk et al., 2013
WITHOUT THE MONTREAL PROTOCOL (WORLD AVOIDED)
Human health and exposure to
solar UV radiation
Models can, necessarily,
only estimate skin cancers
“world avoided”, and
further refinement is
required but the “ballpark”, estimate of two
million fewer cases of skin
cancer a year by 2030
indicates the scale of the
health benefits of the
Montreal Protocol.
Total number of new cases of skin
cancer per million people per year
avoided by the Montreal Protocol
in the year 2030.
From van Dijk et al., 2013
WITHOUT THE MONTREAL PROTOCOL (WORLD AVOIDED)
HUMAN
HEALTH
INCREASED
ULTRAVIOLETB (UV-B)
RADIATION
CONSTRUCTION
MATERIALS
AIR &
WATER
CHEMISTRY
OZONE-DEPELTIONRELATED CHANGES IN
CLIMATE
EFFECTS DUE TO ODS
REPLACEMENTS
Effects of ozone depletion on
ecosystems
TERRESTRIAL AND AQUATIC
ECOSYSTEMS
(including crops and fisheries)
EFFECTS ON PEOPLE AND ENVIRONMENTs
Effects of ozone depletion on
ecosystems
No new
negative
HFCs
degrade
to
environmental effects
produce triof the substitutes for
fluoroacetic acid
the ozone depleting
(TFA) which
substances
or their
accumulates
in water
breakdown-products
bodies.
have been
identified
EFFECTS DUE TO ODS
REPLACEMENTS
No new evidence that
predicted TFA
accumulation will pose
a significant threat to
aquatic ecosystems.
HUMAN
HEALTH
CONSTRUCTION
MATERIALS
AIR &
WATER
CHEMISTRY
TERRESTRIAL AND AQUATIC
ECOSYSTEMS
(including crops and fisheries)
EFFECTS ON PEOPLE AND ENVIRONMENTs
Effects of ozone depletion on
ecosystems
Improved understanding of:
• role of solar UV in air quality (e.g.
aerosols, ground-level ozone) and water
chemistry (e.g. heavy metals), and that
such changes may affect ecosystems.
• that solar UV radiation has significant
direct effects on many organisms and
environmental processes, and of the
mechanistic basis for such responses.
HUMAN
HEALTH
CONSTRUCTION
MATERIALS
AIR &
WATER
CHEMISTRY
INCREASED
INCREASED
ULTRAVIOLETULTRAVIOLET-B (UV-B)
BRADIATION
(UV-B)
RADIATION
TERRESTRIAL AND AQUATIC
ECOSYSTEMS
(including crops and fisheries)
EFFECTS ON PEOPLE AND ENVIRONMENTs
Effects of ozone depletion on
ecosystems
New understanding highlights the vulnerability of
organisms and environmental processes (including
food production) to very large increases in UV caused
by uncontrolled stratospheric ozone depletion.
However, there have been no “world-avoided”
models for these effects, so their magnitude in a
world where the Montreal Protocol had not
controlled ozone-depleting substances has not been
quantified.
WITHOUT THE MONTREAL PROTOCOL (WORLD AVOIDED)
Effects of ozone depletion on
ecosystems
With a few exceptions, changes in UV-B
irradiances due to factors such as cloud, snow and
ice cover, and UV penetration in to water bodies
have a more significant effect on ecosystems than
UV changes due to ozone depletion over the last
three decades.
Southern hemisphere ecosystems have responded
to severe ozone depletion there, partly due to
increased UV radiation, partly due to climatemediated effects.
WITH THE MONTREAL PROTOCOL (NOW)
ANTARCTIC STRATOSPHERIC OZONE DEPLETION
ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION PATTERNS
REGIONAL CLIMATE
TEMPERATURE
HUMAN
HEALTH
WIND
CONSTRUCTION
MATERIALS
RAINFALL
AIR &
WATER
CHEMISTRY
OZONE-DEPELTIONRELATED CHANGES IN
CLIMATE
Effects of ozone depletion on
ecosystems
CHANGES
IN CLIMATE
DUE TO
OZONEDEPLETION
TERRESTRIAL AND AQUATIC
ECOSYSTEMS
(including crops and fisheries)
EFFECTS ON PEOPLE AND ENVIRONMENT
Effects of ozone depletion on
ecosystems
Widespread climate-mediated ecological changes
in the S hemisphere correlated with the Antarctic
ozone “holes” since the 1980s.
Decreased tree
growth due to
drought.
Rapid changes in
phyto-plankton
communities
Slower moss
growth &
changes in lake
biodiversity
Increased tree
growth in
southern Alps.
EEAP REPORT
OVERVIEW
• The success of Montreal Protocol in preventing large,
wide-scale increases in UV radiation has now been
quantified through modelling “the world avoided”.
• Because large increases in UV have been prevented,
major effects of ozone depletion on human health have
been avoided. The scale of damage to health in the
“world avoided” is beginning to be quantified.
• Major effects of ozone depletion on most ecosystems
have also been prevented, but the effects of Antarctic
depletion on regional climates is having measurable
impacts in the S hemisphere, even outside Antarctica.
Co-chairs: Prof Janet Bornman (Aus), Prof Min Shao (China), Prof Nigel Paul (UK)