Renewables –
Power to the People
Dr. Rudolf Rechsteiner
former MP (1995-2010)
Switzerland
Contents
• Why renewables?
• Forecasts for oil and gas – can we
trust them?
• What needs to be done?
• Profound changes of the power
system and infrastructure
An IEA View on energy (2003)
William Ramsay, deputy director IEA
Presentation in the Swiss Parliament Energy Commitee
Tenfold growth over 10 years
Wind power exceeds all forecasts
Meilensteine
exponentiellen
Anzahl Jahre bis kumulierter
Wachstums
zur nächsten Bestand Ende
(2n)
erreicht Ende Verdoppelung
Jahr
1000 MW
1985
6
1020 MW
2000 MW
1991
6
2170 MW
4000 MW
1995
4
4778 MW
8000 MW
1998
3
10153 MW
16000 MW
2000
2
17706 MW
32000 MW
2003
3
39434 MW
64000 MW
2006
3
74328 MW
128000 MW
2009
3
157'900 MW
264000 MW
2012(p)
3(p)
265’000 MW
Neu-Installationen von Kraftwerken in Europa:
71% der Leistung = erneuerbare Energie (2011)
Gestehungskosten seit 1976
(BNEF)
Weltmarkt Solarzellenproduktion 2000-11
(Jäger-Waldau: PV Status Report 2012)
Solarzellen- Wirkungsgrade
(NREL)
Endkundenpreis Dachanlagen BRD 2006-11 (BSW)
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/c/c9/PVeff(rev100414).png
Solar Power: costs reduced – better productivity each year
What are the good News?
• Solar is profitable in the retail market of many
European countries.
• Wind power has made a huge step forward:
– General reduction of costs
– Technical progress for low wind sites,
– Means we have a huge increase in profitable resource
• High petrol prices and scarce government money
 subsidies for fossil fuels reduced somewhat
The Implications of
cheaper prices for wind and solar
• Lower barriers in economic terms
• Faster growth possible, if market frame is there
• It is comparatively less interesting to go to Africa
for solar
– Grids are not there
– Grids are more costly than the additional power
produced by siting in the South
• regional approaches are more appropriate in
terms of production, trade and storage
• But: it makes a lot of sense to connect different
weather zones!
Waht needs to be done?
Windzonen und Windressourcen
Offshore-Nutzungszonen (weiss)
Europa: Potentiale 20mal grösser als Verbrauch
Auslastung der Anlagen
(load Factor)
Ausgeprägte Winterspitze
Quelle: Forwind / EWEA 2011
Contents
• Why renewables?
• Forecasts for oil and gas – can we
trust them?
• What needs to be done?
The IEA forecasts for oil prices
worked well in the 1990es
IEA World Energy Outlook 2000
IEA Oil Price Forecast method
in 2002
"Crude oil prices are assumed to remain flat
until 2010 at around $21 per barrel (in year
2000 dollars) – their average level for the
past 15 years. They will then rise steadily to
$29 in 2030. ”
International Energy Agency:
World Energy Outlook 2002, p. 37
The IEA method of supply prediction:
predict demand!
„The oil supply projections of this Outlook are
derived from aggregated projections of oil
demand…. Opec conventional oil production is
assumed to fill the gap.“
World Energy Outlook 2002 p. 95
IEA Forecasts never hit reality
Source: LBST – Werner Zittel
Decline rates of oil fields
4.9-9.7 percent per year
IEA 2008 global
production forecast
IEA 2008 oil fields in
production decline rate forecast
Post-peak oil fields show a decline rate of 5,5% per year (Höök, 2009)
Source: Höök, M. et al: Giant oil field decline rates and their influence on world oil production .Energy Policy (2009),
World Oil Price (real) and spare
capacity (IMF 2012)
The Future of Oil:
Geology versus Technology
Jaromir Benes, Marcelle Chauvet,
Ondra Kamenik, Michael Kumhof,
Douglas Laxton, Susanna Mursula
and Jack Selody
Negative learning curve
of nuclear power
Cost over time of French and US new nuclear reactors
Source
Grubler, Energy
Policy, Sept 2010
Natural gas price will rise due to
Asien
Europa
USA
Decline rates of shale gas
Haynesville shale gas wells
Source:
J. David Hughes:
Drill, baby Drill,
Postcarbon
Institute 2013
Contents
• Why renewables?
• Forecasts for oil and gas – can we
trust them?
• What needs to be done?
Golden End of renewable power plants
reduces overal cost for society
Kraftwerk Rheinfelden 1898-2011 (gebaut 1894-1898)
Germany 1990-2012:
from 3% to 25% clean power (50% bis 2020?)
Windenergie
Hydro power
40000
Start
1991
30000
20000
2010
2008
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
0
1990
10000
2020: 39-47% oder
mehr (Schätzung)
2012/7
25%
1990
3%
Merit-Order-Impact
renewable power pushes market price to zero
Production and consumption over time
on household level – low cincidence! (~20%)
Low self consumption in
one-family houses
Better coincidence in
large appartment houses.
Im grossen
Mehrfamilienhaus ist der
zeitgleiche
Eigenverbrauch viel
grösser.*
Das Arealprinzip bei der
Kostenverrechnung kann
die Rendite einer Anlage
entscheidend verbessern.
Grafik: Markus Hlusiak, Ann-Katrin Gerlach, Christian
Breyer: Übergang zu einer regionalen
Elektrizitätsversorgung aus 100 % Erneuerbarer Energie
am Beispiel des Allgäus, Das Solarzeitalter 3/2012
*grösserer und zeitlich stärker
gestreuter Verbrauch, weniger
Dachfläche pro Einwohner
Solar roof power cheaper
than residential power tariffs
German Power Spotmarket
16 Juli 2011
Source:
EEX/Photon
Power prices on record low
(Strompreis Futures CAL 13)
ELIX 8.3.2013
3,7 €-Cent/kWh
Baseload 2013
European power market: Lower power prices
due to wind and solar
EEX electricity spot market 7. März 2012:
Spot price at day cheaper than at night
Why has peak load power become so
cheap? – the German example
PV Power covers the demand at day – no peak power stations needed with sunny days
Market Clearing Price Germany
Sunday August 8, 2012
Wind and solar
reduce market
prices due to zero
marginal cost
Solarstrom füllt das Netz Bandenergie wird wertlos
Compensation rules for power are
key for investment certainty
• We need fair compensation for decentrally produced
power
– Self consumption starts to be interesting, but it is not sufficient
– Storage makes no sense as long as you can sell it with less cost
to local demand
• Market prices at marginal cost is not a fair solution
– Every time the sun shines, the price is going to zero
– But the cost is not zero
– Overall cost is less than for fossil fuels
• Fair rules could be
– A Feed-in tariff for avoided costs (what would power cost if
produced elsewhere with fossil fuel
– Net metering: let the power meter turn back
Countries without feed in tariffs
net metering as a solution(=let the power meter turn back)
Situation today
Net metering
You pay 20-25
Cents/kWh
You get 0-7
cents
Cents/kWh
Solar power is peak power. It is always welcome with market penetration below
20-30%. It covers the demand during high load periods.
With market penetration beyond 30% you need storage facilities and a smater
grid.
Contents
• Why renewables?
• Forecasts for oil and gas – can we
trust them?
• What needs to be done?
• Profound changes of the power
system and infrastructure
Case study Switzerland:
Speicherentnahmen
Integration von Wind- und
Sonnenstrom ist ohne
Mehrkosten möglich
• dank bestehenden grossen
Leistungsreserven in der
Schweiz und in Europa
(CH 12 GW, Europa 96GW
Wasserspeicher)
• Dank Ausbau der Netze
• Dank Ausbau der
Pumpspeicher (Spanien,
Schweiz, Deutschland,
Norwegen usw.)
• Dank neuen Speichern (E-Gas)
und fossilem Backup (Erdgas)
Grafik: CH Elektrizitätsstatistik
Zu jeder Tages- und Jahreszeit
• schont Wind- und Solarstrom die
Entnahme von Reserven aus den
Speicherseen (hellblau)
• verbessert die Versorgungssicherheit
• ersetzt Kohle-, Gas- oder Atomstrom
Leistungsprofil im Sommer, mit 18
TWh Solarstrom jährlich
Umkehrung der Speicherzyklen!
Speicherkraftwerke produzieren am Abend und in der Nacht
Pumpspeicher pumpen am Tag (Sommerzyklus, PV-Maximum)
Swiss power Generation in 2030
Vernetzung mit Gleichstromleitungen:
grössere Reichweite, kleinere Verluste
Unterwasserkabel:
Stand de Technik
The benefits of grids:
• Balancing power over
several markets
• Access to new resources
• Access to existing storages
(e.g. pump storage)
• Access to excess power in
other areas
Gleichstromleitungen Nord-Süd
im Bundesnetzplan 2012
Challenges ahead for renewables
•
•
•
•
A fair price for non-polluting power
– Coverage of investment costs and risks over a facility’s life time
– Integration of sites with high, medium and lower productivity, avoiding windfall profits
– Long term stability of regulatory frameworks for cost reduction
Access to the grids in a non-discriminating manner
– Preferential access to grids for renewables
– Interconnection of different weather zones and technologies
– Transparent grid codes
Security of supply and backup management
– Forecasting of demand and supply
– combining storages such as biomass, hydro, batteries in a low cost way
– Creation of intra-day and intra-hour markets for power exchange
– Fair compensation of idle backup capacities
– storing fossil fuels as “lenders of last resort”
Environmental care
– minimizing environmental impacts while mobilizing natural resources by incentives and regional
planning obligations
– Fair and sensitive planning of renewable energies and grids with a 100% approach in mind
– Protection for rare species, natural rivers, exceptional landscapes
Why renewables should succeed:
the benefits
• Reliable, inexhaustible and virtually free (but weather
dependent) primary energy (wind, solar, hydro, geothermal)
• Resilient due to decentralized, interconnected generation
• Affordable power, on the way to become a least cost-solution,
chance for a Golden End
• needing a favorable market structure
– balancing high up-front cost with later benefits
– Diversity of sources and interconnection