Carl Schreck Lifecycle Ingredients Climatology Data 1 Lifecycle Ingredients Climatology Data 2 Winds < 35 kts Numbered, but not named Semi-organized group of thunderstorms Lifecycle Ingredients Climatology Data 3 Winds 35–63 kts ≈ 11 per year in the Atlantic Named More circular/spiral, but no eye Lifecycle Ingredients Climatology Data 4 Winds ≥ 64 kts ≈ 6 per year in the Atlantic Eye develops Different names around the world: Hurricane in the Atlantic and East Pacific Typhoon in West Pacific Cyclone in Indian Ocean and South Pacific “Tropical Cyclone” is the generic/scientific term Lifecycle Ingredients Climatology Data 5 Winds ≥ 96 kts ≈ 2-3 per year in the Atlantic Category 3–5 on the Saffir–Simpson Scale Strong and dangerous storms Well-defined, circular eye Lifecycle Ingredients Climatology Data 6 Deep warm ocean layer Warm oceans are the energy source for hurricanes But hurricanes can mix cold water upward if the warm water is too shallow Conditionally unstable atmosphere Warm air rises, but only if it’s warmer than its surroundings Moist mid-troposphere Dry air 2-3 km from the surface can cause cold downdrafts ww2010.atmos.uiuc.edu Lifecycle Ingredients Climatology Data 7 Pre-existing convection Needs organized thunderstorms to get things going Cyclonic low-level vorticity Counter-clockwise spinning winds help organize the thunderstorms Associated with low pressure Weak vertical wind shear Tilting winds can knock the storm over Lifecycle Ingredients Climatology Data 8 Wind shear is defined as the wind vector difference between the 850 and 200 mb level (arbitrary) Good – latent heat can concentrate in one area Bad – convection torn apart High westerly shear Low easterly shear In general, low values (< 20 kt) of vertical wind shear are desired. Courtesy of C.C. Hennon, UNC Asheville Lifecycle Ingredients Climatology Data 9 Berry et al. (2007, Mon. Wea. Rev.) Thunderstorm systems with wave-like properties Move westward with a period of 3–6 days Common over West Africa Provides storms with cyclonic vorticity and convection Lifecycle Ingredients Climatology Data 10 Warm Ocean Temperatures 10°N to 20°N Supply of Tropical Waves from Africa 20°W to 60°W or 80°W Lifecycle Ingredients Climatology Data 11 Zipser et al. (2009, BAMS) climate.nasa.gov Dry air from Sahara can weaken storms Dust blocks the sun and cools the ocean Lifecycle Ingredients Climatology Data 12 Knapp et al. (2010, BAMS) Lifecycle Ingredients Climatology Data 13 Bars depict number of named systems (open/yellow), hurricanes (hatched/green), and category 3 or greater (solid/red), 1886-2004 nhc.noaa.gov/climo Lifecycle Ingredients Climatology Data 14 Lifecycle Ingredients Climatology Data 15 Lifecycle Ingredients Climatology Data 16 Lifecycle Ingredients Climatology Data 17 Lifecycle Ingredients Climatology Data 18 Lifecycle Ingredients Climatology Data 19 Lifecycle Ingredients Climatology Data 20 Lifecycle Ingredients Climatology Data 21 Historical record of tropical cyclone locations and intensities Constructed after each season by the warning agencies Best estimate using all available data nhc.noaa.gov Lifecycle Ingredients Climatology Data 22 Weather stations Buoys Ships Radar Aircraft Reconnaissance Visible/Infrared Satellites Microwave satellites Satellite estimates account for vast majority of the record Courtesy of Jack Beven (NOAA/NHC) Lifecycle Ingredients Climatology Data 23 Weather stations Buoys Ships Radar Aircraft Reconnaissance Visible/Infrared Satellites Microwave satellites Satellite estimates account for vast majority of the record Courtesy of Jack Beven (NOAA/NHC) Lifecycle Ingredients Climatology Data 24 Which image on the right is the closest match for this image of Hurricane Katrina? 25