Shanghai Cooperation Organization Origins and Perspectives Lukáš Visingr BSS 457 Regionalization of Security Contents 1. History 2. Membership 3. Structure 4. Activities 5. SWOT analysis 6. Conclusions Russian: Шанхайская организация сотрудничества Chinese: 上海合作 (Shanghai Hezuo Zuzhi) 1. History • 1996: Treaty on Deepening Military Trust in Border Regions, socalled „Shanghai Five“ (RF, PRC, Kaz., Kyr., Taj.) • 1997: Treaty on Reduction of Military Forces in Border Regions • 2001: Shanghai Cooperation Organization (with Uzb.), Treaty of Good-Neighbourliness and Friendly Cooperation (RF, PRC) • 2002: Shanghai Cooperation Organization Charter • 2003: proposal of free-trade area (by PRC) • 2004: Regional Anti-Terrorist Structure • 2005: USA urged to set a timetable for withdrawing their forces from SCO members, observer status refused • 2007: agreement with CSTO to broaden cooperation 2. Membership 6 regular members: • Russia • China • Kazakhstan • Tajikistan • Uzbekistan • Kyrgyzstan 4 observers: • India • Pakistan • Iran • Mongolia 2. Membership • • • • 6 members: Russia, China, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan 4 observers: India, Pakistan, Iran, Mongolia 2 dialogue partners: Belorussia, Sri Lanka 3 guest attendances: Afghanistan, ASEAN, CIS 2. Membership Collective Security Treaty Organization Russia Belorussia Armenia Kazakhstan Tajikistan Uzbekistan Kyrgyzstan 3. Structure • The Council of Heads of State (annual summits in capitals) • The Council of Heads of Government (annual summits) • The Council of Foreign Ministers (regular meetings) • The Council of National Coordinators (multilateral cooperation) • The Secretariat of the SCO (primary executive organ) • The Regional Anti-Terrorist Structure (permanent organ) • Non-governmental institutions: SCO Business Council, SCO Interbank Consortium, SCO Forum 3. Structure 4. Activities SECURITY COOPERATION: • Shift from border security issues to broader cooperation in stabilizing the Central Asia • The official goal is to counter „three evils“ of terrorism, separatism and extremism • Although the SCO declares no intentions to become a military bloc, full-scale involvement of military forces is seen as a necessary tool • Joint military exercises; however, the Russian-Chinese Peace Mission exercises are held outside of the SCO 4. Activities ECONOMIC COOPERATION: • Trade: Chinese proposal of free-trade area • Finances: Interbank Consortium, actions against global financial crisis (Chinese loans) • Energy: joint resources projects (oil, gas, water) CULTURAL COOPERATION: • Arts, festivals, exhibitions… (mainly symbolic) 5. SWOT analysis 5. SWOT analysis STRENGTHS: • Gigantic potential: area over 30 million km2, population over 1,5 milliard people, GDP almost 10 billion USD • Enormous natural resources of Russia and Central Asia • Strong national economy of China • Powerful military forces of Russia and China 5. SWOT analysis WEAKNESSES: • Structural fragility: three states strong (RF, PRC, Kaz.) and three significantly weaker (Kyr., Taj., Uzb.) • Very different (and in some issues, rather contradictory) motivations of two main actors (RF, PRC) and yet very different view of the other four members • Tensions between members and observers (RF×PRC, PRC×Kaz., PRC×India, India×Pakistan…), still unclear sense of the observer status itself • Tensions between resource-suppliers and consumers • No clause of mutual / collective defense (×CSTO) • No common „identity“ or „values“, lack of „soft power“ 5. SWOT analysis OPPORTUNITIES: • Stabilization and utilization of Central Asia • Expansion to South Asia and Middle East • Suppression of Islamic extremism and terrorism • Challenging the global dominant position of the USA and NATO (forming an „Eastern NATO“?) • Forming a strong independent economic block 5. SWOT analysis THREATS: • Islamic extremism and terrorism and various forms of separatism (mutual support disputable) • Strength of the USA and the whole West: Washington could launch a new „diplomatic offensive“ to „get back“ the Central Asian states • Global economic crisis: growing problems of Russia, possible collapse of China 6. Conclusions • SCO has established as a potentially important security actor in Central Asia and it provides (at least discussion) platform for security cooperation • However, it has got fundamental weaknesses, above all the relations between Russia and China • Security cooperation can improve, but closer military ties would probably collide with CSTO and deeper economic integration seems hardly imaginable • The real „menace“ to the West is nothing but symbolic • Not „Eastern NATO“, rather „Eastern OSCE“, but without comparable legitimacy; OSCE is at least respected as an „arbiter“, while SCO is rather a „power tool“ Main sources • Cohen, A.: Competition over Eurasia: Are the U.S. and Russia on a Collision Course?, on-line text (http://www.heritage.org/Research/RussiaandEurasia/hl901.cfm). • Cohen, A.: The Russia-China Friendship and Cooperation Treaty: A Strategic Shift in Eurasia?, on-line text (http://www.heritage.org/Research/RussiaandEurasia/BG1459.cfm). • Horák, S.: Rusko a Střední Asie po rozpadu SSSR, Praha: Univerzita Karlova – Nakladatelství Karolinum 2008. • Shanghai Cooperation Organization, WWW site (http://www.sectsco.org/). • Sznajder, A. P.: China’s Shanghai Cooperation Organisation Strategy, online text (http://irps.ucsd.edu/assets/004/5367.pdf). • Weitz, R.: SCO fails to solve its expansion dilemma, on-line text (http://www.cacianalyst.org/?q=node/4697).