America’s
Changing Racial Diversity
From The Bottom Up
William H. Frey
The Brookings Institution
www.brookings.edu/experts/freyw
US: Population by Age: 2010 and 2050
450,000
400,000
20. %
350,000
300,000
65+
13%
250,000
45-54
200,000
20-44
150,000
Under 20
100,000
50,000
0
2010
Source: William H. Frey analysis
2050
US: Population by Race: 2010 and 2050
500,000
450,000
400,000
46%
350,000
300,000
White
Black
250,000
200,000
64%
Asian
150,000
Hispani
c
Other
100,000
50,000
0
2010
Source: William H. Frey analysis
2050
US Growth by Age 2000-10
60
50
50
40
30
19
20
10
18
11
12
3
2
0
-10
-9
-20
0- 14
15-24
25-34
Source: William H. Frey analysis
35-44
45-54
55-64
65-74
75+
Median Ages of Race-Ethnic Groups
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
41
34
30
27
20
Whites
Asians
Source: William H. Frey analysis
Blacks
Hispanics
2+Races
Race Ethnic Shares
2010 Population
2000-10 Growth
8.3
1.9
4.7
16.3
13.7
55.5
12.2
63.7
15.9
5.0
White
Hawaii
Black
Othr Race
Source: William H. Frey analysis
Am Indian
2+ Races
Asian
Hispanic
2000-2010 Change in Child Population
by Race-Ethnicity
6,000,000
4,000,000
2,000,000
0
-2,000,000
-4,000,000
-6,000,000
White
Black
Source: William H. Frey analysis
Am
Indian
Asian
2+ Races Hispanic
Children : 2015-2040
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
53
51
49
46
44
42
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
0%
White
Black
Source: William H. Frey analysis
Asian/other
Hispanic
Contributions to Labor Force Population
2010 -2040
8
6
Millions
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
2011-15
2016-20
Hispanic
Source: William H. Frey analysis
2021-25
Black
2026-30
2031-35
Asian
2036-40
White
Contributions to Labor Force 2010-2020
(in millions)
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
9.6
2
3.5
-5
White
Source: William H. Frey analysis
Black
Asian/Other
Hispanic
Labor Force Ages: 2015-2040
100%
80%
60%
40%
62
60
57
54
52
50
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
20%
0%
White
Black
Source: William H. Frey analysis
Asian/other
Hispanic
HS Dropout Rates: Age 16-24
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
34.3
11.5
11.5
6.1
Hispanic
Foreign
Born
Hispanic
Native
Born
Source: William H. Frey analysis
Blacks
NCES, US Dept of Education
Whites
3.0
Asians
College Enrollment Rate: Age 18-24
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
64.6
45.7
35.9
35.3
Hispanic
Native
Born
Blacks
15.5
Hispanic
Foreign
Born
Source: William H. Frey analysis
Pew Hispanic Center
Whites
Asians
Education by Race-Ethnicity
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
10
17
18
31
50
52
Hispanic
Foreign
Born
22
18
Hispanic
Native
Born
Black
Less then HS
Source: William H. Frey analysis
HS grad
10
14
White
Asian
Some College
Pew Hispanic Center
College Grads
Hispanic Concentrations 2010
Percent of County
Population
25% and above
10.0% to 24.9%
5.0 to 9.9%
Under
5%
Source:
William
H. Frey analysis
Data source: William H. Frey analysis of Census2010
Black Concentrations 2010
Percent of County
Population
25% and above
10.0% to 24.9%
5.0% to 9.9%
UnderWilliam
5%
Source:
H. Frey analysis
Data source: William H. Frey analysis of Census2010
State Growth in Child Population, 2000-10
Growth 5% and over
Growth under 5%
Decline under 5%
Decline 5% and over
Source: William H. Frey analysis
Under age 18
Percent Minority Children, 2010
GT 50%
40% - 50%
25% - 40%
Source: William H. Frey analysis
Under 25%
Percent Children with Immigrant Parents
60
50
51%
40
35%
35%
34%
32%
30
31%
31%
23%
20
10
0
CA
NY
NV
Ist Gen
Source: William H. Frey analysis
AZ
FL
NJ
TX
2nd Gen
US
Children Speaking Other than English
Source:
William
Source:
WilliamH.
H.Frey
Frey analysis
analysis
GT 20%
10% - 20%
6% - 10%
Under 6%
* Ages 5 - 17
US Growth by Age 2000-10
60
50
50
40
30
19
20
10
18
11
12
3
2
0
-10
-9
-20
0- 14
15-24
25-34
Source: William H. Frey analysis
35-44
45-54
55-64
65-74
75+
Median Ages for States, 2010
40 and over
38 to 40
36 to 38
Source: William H. Frey analysis
Below 36
Senior Population Shifts: 3 Decades
(1000s)
12,000
Young Elderly
Old Elderly
(65 - 74)
(75 +)
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
2000 - 2010
Source: William H. Frey analysis
2010 - 2020
2020- 2030
Projected Age 65+ Growth
2000-30
140% & above
100% -139%
70% -99%
under 69%
Source: William H. Frey analysis
Share of all US Households
2000 and 2010
60
50
51.7
48.4
40
30
23.5
20
20.2
10
0
Married Couples
2000
Source: William H. Frey analysis
Married Couples with
Children
2010
Married Couples as Share of All Households
70
62 61
55
60
52
50
55
49
40
32
30
28
20
10
0
Asians
Whites
2000
Source: William H. Frey analysis
Hispanics
Blacks
2010
Projected Race-Ethnic Shares, 2010-30
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Children
54
50
46
2010
2020
2030
white
Black
Source: William H. Frey analysis
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Seniors
80
76
71
2010
2020
2030
Asian/Other
Hispanic
Cultural Generation Gaps
Difference in White Percent: Seniors minus Children
25 and above
20 to 25
15 to 20
Below 15
Source: William H. Frey analysis
Useful Websites
www.CensusScope.org/2010 Census
www.frey-demographer.org
Source: William H. Frey analysis