CONFLICT ANALYSIS
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Systematic study of the profile, root causes, actors, and
dynamics contributing to either violent conflict and/or
peace
Conflict Analysis should capture the multidimensionality (political, social, economic, security,
human rights etc.) of a conflict. It should be tailored to
any geographic area or programmatic level.
Conflict analysis also serves an opportunity to engage
different stakeholders to participate and develop a
shared understanding of the context to inform a shared
vision on development and peace building priorities.
Provides an opportunity to prioritize development
interventions and plan more strategically
WHAT CONFLICT ANALYSIS IS NOT
Common sense and perception of dynamics
 An academic piece
 Not a desk report
 Not a chronology
 Not an compilation of reports
 Not a one-off exercise
 Context Analysis
 A separate exercise de-linked from planning and
programming
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KEY ELEMENTS OF CONFLICT ANALYSIS
 Profile/Situation
 Causal
Analysis
Analysis
 Stakeholder Analysis
 Analysis of Conflict Dynamics
 Prioritization
KEY FEATURES OF CONFLICT ANALYSIS
 There
are many frameworks and
methodologies on conflict analysis available.
UNICEF uses the “UN conflict analysis
methodology” adaptable to the diverse
planning scenarios
 Conflict analysis is part of several inter-agency
planning frameworks- UNICEF needs to be an
active player
 Process is as important if not more than the
outcome.
KEY FEATURES OF CONFLICT ANALYSIS
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Quality conflict analysis requires appropriate
investment by the Country Office (staff, resources,
time, process)
Conflict analysis is only useful if translated into the
programming cycle
Important for UNICEF is the identification of both
root causes and conflict triggers because of dual
mandate.
UNICEF AND CONFLICT ANALYSIS
Building on inter-agency and broader conflict analysis,
zoom in on conflict dynamics particularly relevant for
children and women,
including:
- Social dimensions of conflict
- Children’s rights
- Gender
- Equitable access to services
- Protection and security
- Adolescents and youth
- Restoring the citizen-state social compact
Causal Analysis framework
VIOLENT CONFLICT
Conflict triggers
Underlying causes
Root causes
Source: FAO
PROBLEM TREE EXAMPLE (ADAPTED FROM UNDP KENYA/ACORD/NSC*)
Effects
Children out of
school
Food insecurity
Displacement
Loss of livelihoods
Closure market
Cattle killing
Continued
insecurity
Destruction of
houses public
infrastructure
Emotional and
physical damage
Violence,
Killing
of humans
Violent conflict
between x and y
Problem
Lack of dispute
resolution
mechanisms
Group x
marginalized
Causes
Rape of girls
fetching water
Past forced
relocation of x to
area y
Ethnic
mistrust
Limited access
to education,
health, water
Youth
unemployment
Inequitable access to natural
resources
Prevalence of
small arms
Spill-over from
conflict in X
* Publication by UNDP Kenya, Acord, and the Kenyan National Steering Committee for Peace building:
Community Peace Recovery and Reconciliation
Exercise – Problem Tree
Instructions
1. Based on the analysis you did on your country
situation, identify one key problem that has a
direct link to the main conflict dynamics in
the country.
2. Identify causes of the key problem at 2 levels:
- conflict triggers
- underlying/root causes
3. Identify existing and potential effects of the
problem.