EGYPTIAN REVOLUTION, v.2.0
January - ?, 2011
“Dissent is the highest form of patriotism.” Anon.
© 2011: Ahmad F Ghais, Ph.D.
EMOTIONAL VIDEO CLIPS
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-HGfFyqJMrk
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xccPG4fFNjg
2
3
QUESTIONS
• Is the Egyptian uprising genuine? What are its underlying
causes? Who is behind it? What are its demands?
• Who holds power in Egypt? Who opposes the uprising?
• What are its implications for rest of world?
• How does it relate to islamist extremism?
• What is the Muslim Brotherhood? Terrorist organization?
• What is US interest in Egypt? How should US policy adapt
to new Egyptian reality?
• What are likely outcomes of the uprising?
4
SEMINARS
• Muslims and Arabs: Origins of Islamist Extremism
• Islam, Islamism, fundamentalism, extremism, terrorism?
• Muslim/Arab History: Primer for infidels, heathens &
unbelievers
• Palestine and the Arab/Israeli dispute
• Egyptian Revolution, v.2.0
5
AN EGYPTIAN REVOLUTION?
• Grassroots movement for democracy
• Patriotic, secular
• not islamist nor pan-Arab
• Unanticipated, long time coming
• New e-literate generation
• Intelligentsia, disenfranchised, oppressed
• Have-nots
6
CAUSES
• Autocratic regime
• Political oppression
• Lack of civil liberties, rights
• Poverty
• Lack of opportunity
• Corruption
7
DEMANDS
• Democracy now
• Mubarak resign
• Regime change
• Constitutional reform
• Freedom of information
• Bread!
8
POWER IN EGYPT
• Autocratic constitution
• Powerful president
• Weak parliament
• National Democratic Party (NDP)
• The military!
9
10
THE MILITARY
• Anchors regime since 1952
• Privileged officer class, conscripts
• Regular police
• State Security Police, recruits
11
WHO OPPOSES THE UPRISING?
• 5000 years of allegiance
• The military
• NDP
• Vested interests: haves vs have-nots
• Arab potentates
• Israel
• USA?
12
IMPLICATIONS
• Demonstration effect, but local conditions
• Opposition to US policy
• Islamism
• Autocracies: Jordan, Yemen, Syria, Algeria, Saudi, etc.
• Camp David Treaty
• Diminishes AlQaida’s message
13
MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD
• Font of Islamist fundamentalism:1928
• Promotes social reform
• Grassroots: universities, syndicates, have-nots
• Opposes: British rule, secularism, US policy
• Bred extremists
• Outlawed off and on
• Renounces violence in ‘70s
• Terrorist or patriotic?
14
US INTERESTS
• “War on Terror”
• Pathway to Iraq and Afghanistan
• Access to oil
• Israel’s security
• Ideals: liberty, justice, human rights
15
ECHOES OF AMERICA
• Declaration of Independence; Bill of Rights
• Tea parties 1 and 2
• “Give me liberty, or give me death”
• Civil disobedience: “We shall overcome”
• Circling the wagons
16
BACKGROUND: OBAMA’S SPEECH
http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/remarkspresident-cairo-university-6-04-09
17
US POLICY
• US aid: military, civilian
• Military ties
• “Orderly transition”
• Muddled, short-sighted, hypocritical
• The devil you know? “Our SOB”
• Living up to our ideals
• “Bug out”
18
19
OUTCOMES
• Is Egypt ready for democracy?
• Mubarak is finished; is regime finished?
• Muddle along: Military remain king-makers
• Best case: secular, inclusive governance
• Back to barracks
• Worst case: Rise of islamist extremism
• Irrelevancies: Israel, Iran
20