Timeline of key events in Egypt • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • 1952: Free Officers Coup; Muhammed Naguib is President 1956: Aswan Dam plan/Nationalization of the Suez; Nasser becomes President 1958-1961: United Arab Republic with Syria 1967: 6-Day War; beginning of “state of emergency” 1970: Death of Nasser; accession of Sadat (“Nasser’s poodle”) 1973: War with Israel (“the crossing”) 1974: Launch of economic restructuring “infitah” 1977: Sadat visits Israel 1979: Camp David Accords: peace with Israel, return of the Sinai, expulsion from the Arab League 1981: Assassination of Sadat; accession of Mubarak mid-1980s: Wafd party competes in elections again; Muslim Brotherhood unofficially competes; then increasing political closure 1989: Egypt readmitted to the Arab League 1991: Egypt fights against Iraq in the Gulf War mid-1990s: Islamist revolt; attempts to bring down the government; assassination attempt on Mubarak (1995) 2004: Increasing, organized popular protest; renewal of Islamist attacks 2005: first Presidential election installs Mubarak for a 5th term; parliamentary elections give the Muslim Brotherhood a substantial minority position 2006-2009: Internal debates over Mubarak’s successor; tightening up on reform 2010: Parliamentary elections are widely seen as fraudulent; NDP dominates 2011: President Mubarak ousted in a massive 18-day popular revolution 0 2012: President Morsi of the Muslim Brotherhood elected Governing structures under Mubarak • Presidency – – – Source of most political power Appoints executive cabinet Hosni Mubarak was one of the longest serving world leaders (30 years) • People’s Assembly (Majlis al-Sha’ab) – – 454 members; drafts legislation in conjunction with the cabinet Dominated by the President’s NDP party, with scattered representation from independents and opposition parties • Consultative Council (Majlis al-Shura) – Advisory body only; 1/3 appointed by the President President Mubarak Gamal Mubarak 1 Historical Egyptian political issues • Economic policy – – State-led development vs. Capitalism Role of the infitah • Poverty/Unemployment – – State subsidies on employment and food Massive underemployment and inequality • Foreign policy – – – – Cold war neutral (initial Nasserite position) Pro-Soviet (1954-1971) Pro-Western (1974-present) At the center of the Arab-Israeli conflict • Religion – – Keeping Islamists out of the state Keeping tensions between Muslims and Copts minimal • Civil society – – Limited freedom of the Media and organizations Corruption issues • Political stagnation and the possibility of protest 2 Restricted political liberalization and political parties • Patterns of political liberalization – Tradition of restricted political pluralism under the British/King Faruq – One-party state until Sadat legalized 3 parties in 1976 • National Democratic Party (NDP) as a centrist party; with two legal opposition parties on the center-right and center-left – Mubarak expanded the number of legal parties to 13 in the 1980s • Key political parties – National Democratic Party – Old opposition parties: New Wafd, Labor – Opposition parties are historically very weak and have a small political base • Barriers to free competition – – – – Structural barriers to participation High levels of political apathy Exclusion of parties based on class or religion Muslim Brotherhood illegal, but participated as a collection of independents 3 21st century elections • The 2000 elections – The NDP did not do well, got under ½ of the seats – But those that did well as independents were friendly to the government and joined the NDP in parliament, so the control of parliament was never in doubt – Muslim Brotherhood independents did very well, but ran in fewer constituencies • The 2005 and 2007 elections – – – – – First presidential elections in 2005; Mubarak dominant; relatively low turnout Increasing number of political protests Appearance of new political movements and parties (Kifaya and al-Ghad) Muslim Brotherhood is a scare for the regime in 2005, doing better than anticipated Brotherhood increasingly excluded in the 2007 shura council elections • How should we understand top-down political liberalization of Egypt? – Parliament has remained weak – Campaign issues have revolved around political process, not just distributive issues – What role has international pressure played? Kifayya protest Ayman Nour of al-Ghad 4 Egyptian Islamists and the state • Home of the Islamist movement – Home of the Muslim Brotherhood and Sayyid Qutb – Long tradition of Islamist opposition to the state – Also strong neo-Sufi movement going on these days • The state under fire – – – – – – Mid-1990s was the high point of Islamist radicalism Al-Gama’a al-Islamiyya took over Imbaba and declared it an Islamic Republic Islamist assassinations of prominent political and judicial officials Attacks on intellectuals, writers, tourists Massive state retaliation in the mid-1990s Increasing state control over private mosques, prayer leaders (imams) • Split in Islamist movements – Younger generation of Muslim Brotherhood split off and formed the al-Wasat (center) party in 1996 – Have constraints led to Islamist moderation in Egypt? – Have opportunities for participation led to Islamist moderation? 5 Revolution and political turbulence in Egypt 2011• Context – National Democratic Party (NDP) dominates through managed electoral competition – Economic growth, then crisis, with rising prices – Military is popular but has entrenched economic interests • Causes – Grievances – Corruption amid economic expansion led to a 2-tier society – Stark lack of opportunity among educated youth – 2010 elections were too fraudulent, causing challengers to doubt participation – Opportunities – Divisions and uncertainty over who would succeed the aging Mubarak – Collective network built around “kefaya” movement and 2004-2005 protests – Online protest networks: “April 6 Movement” and “We are all Khaled Said” – Tunisian example caught the public imagination • Development – – – – – Gradual agreement to some political reforms as popular demands kept increasing Attempts to use vigilantes to deter the protesters Military strategy finally fails and key officers decide to sacrifice Mubarak Cautious rule by military tribunal in preparation for elections (SCAF) Continued popular protest against the slow pace of reforms and lack of accountability 6 Timeline of Mubarak’s ouster Timeline: Protests st 1 “day of Crackdown build; elrevolt” on protests Baradei returns Jan 25 Jan 26 Jan 27 Major clashes with riot police Jan 28 Curfew broken; Mubarak dismisses govt. Jan 28 VP Suleiman appointed Jan 29 Military Mubarak says he’ll leaves protesters quit in Sept alone Jan 30 Feb 1 Pro- vs. antiMubarak clashes. Feb 2 NDP rulers resign; Mubarak talks with ousted opposition Feb 5 Feb 11 7 Egyptian political institutions today Political institutions – Constitution • Drafted by an unrepresentative constituent assembly in November 2012 – President • Mohammed Morsi of the FJP becomes President in June 2012 • He takes on the power of the military and the courts – Parliament • Elected Jan 2012 in three rounds of voting • Dissolved by the courts after 6 months – Courts • Led by the Supreme Constitutional Court and Court of Cassation • Have had a standoff with the President after he revised their powers – Military • Major social and economic institution in Egypt • Led by Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF), which took power after Mubarak was ousted 8 Contemporary political movements and parties • Political movements and parties – – – – Muslim Brotherhood and its Freedom and Justice Party (FJP) dominate Other “Salafist” Islamist movements parties (ex: al-Nour) also command strong support Historical legacy parties (“New Wafd”), including old NDP affiliates “Egyptian Bloc” captures a variety of liberal civil society groups + some smaller liberal party alliances – Centrist splinter groups from the Muslim Brotherhood (“al-Wasat”) – National Salvation Front (el-Baradei) formed to challenge Morsi’s self-given powers • Electoral results (2011-1012) – 508 seats in the National Assembly Democratic Alliance (235) Islamist Bloc (123) New Wafd (38) Egyptian Bloc (34) Ex-NDP parties (18) al-Wasat (10) Reform and Development (9) The Revolution Continues (9) Justice (1) Independents (21) Presidential appointees (10) 9 Map of Egyptian political parties 10 Contemporary political issues in Egypt • Major challenges – Economic stability • Possibility of economic collapse; shortage of cash reserves • Need for political stability to bring back tourism and investment • Political challenges of reforming the Egyptian economy – Political representation and inclusion • Constituent assembly boycotted by Christians and liberals • Potential boycott of 2013 elections • Future status of women and religious minorities – Ongoing disruptive violence • Many deaths following the imposition of death sentences in the Football riots case (January 2013) • Protests and clashes at the Presidential palace and Brotherhood headquarters • An uncertain future – President Morsi must walk a tightrope between allowing voice and enforcing stability – Popular priorities are beginning to shift from democracy towards rule of law – Timing and outcome of parliamentary elections are currently in doubt What do you think could be done to improve Egypt’s trajectory? 11 Lecture terms—March 27 Hosni Mubarak Mohammed el-Baradei infitah Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) National Democratic Party Al-Nour party Kifayya movement Al-Ghad (Tomorrow) Party Al-Azhar Muslim Brotherhood Al-Gamaa al-Islamiyya Al-Wasat (Center) Party April 6 Movement 12