European Neighbourhood Policy
Michael Emerson
CEPS
Fundamentals of democracy
promotion in the neighbourhood
Paradigm identification – can the EU’s objective of democratisation of its
neighbourhood be driven by conditionality, or mainly socialisation?
Research suggests that conditionality has worked really well in the EU
accession process, but not in neighburhood policy where there is no
membership perspective
Socialisation is all about attitudes, awareness, education, understanding
of values, proximity providing experiences of personal contacts, etc.
Socialisation is a long-term and hardly measurable process, but
fundamental
Arab spring home grown, grass root protests, not result of external
policies. EU & member states ran away from confronting Mubarak etc
EU response to Arab spring is renewal of ‘Conditionality’ discourse, ‘more
for more’: unconvincing, but convenient for speeches of ministers.
Democracy technical assistance worth doing where welcome, but don’t
think you can buy in democracy on the cheap.
Meet the Eastern neighbours ….
• Belarus – ripe for regime collapse and Russki
takeover, unless unexpected political dynamics
with post-Lukashenko: ‘history is about the
unexpected becoming the inevitable’.
• Ukraine – structural inclination to carry on
‘milking both cows’ (EU & Rus); very poor
governance and comprehension of EU; need for
rapid conclusion of EU-Ukr Association
Agreement and DCFTA (but problem here, see
later)
Meet the Eastern neighbours (cont.)
• Moldova – very pro-EU government, but
fragile, also need AA+DCFTA; Transnistria false
priority
• Georgia – radical de-regulating, liberalising &
de-corrupting regime; unilateral free trade
with whole world, unilateral recognition of EU
technical standards for imports; Commission
(DG Trade) pose unreasonable pre-conditions
for DCFTA.
Meet the Eastern neighbours (cont.)
• Armenia – atrocious kleptocracy; civil society
and opposition exist; ripe for colour revolution
(but TerPetrosian’s March protests fade)
• Azerbaijan – enjoying oil wealth, civil society
and opposition repressed, elite groups not
interested in democracy; buying military
strength, war talk over Nagorno Karbakh,
Minsk group mediation failing
Russia
• Not ‘neighbour but strategic partner’
• Not too bad EU-Russia relations
• But not so good either: succession of empty grand
initiatives (new PCA, 4 Common Spaces, Modernisation
Partnership
• Divergence of Putin v. Medvedev discourse: political
competition, or just good cop/bad cop act?
• Long term and very gradual Europeanisation of Russian
society, alongside still divergent geo-political stances.
Much depends on 2012.
• Kaliningrad – special Lithuanian role
Policy issues for Eastern neighbours
• Democracy instruments, Polish proposal for
European Endowment for Democracy
• DCFTA policy: DG Trade doctrine should be
changed, ill-considered extrapolation of
‘enlargement’ acquis compliance; risk of failure
for Eastern Partnership summit in November if no
results for Ukraine & Georgia
• Visa policy: need for early results, not just long
term roadmaps; member states can liberalise
multi-year, multi-entry visas
Southern neighbours & Arab spring ….
• 17 Arab states from Morocco to Yemen feeling the ‘spring’
• 2 have regime change & fresh constitution (Tunisia, Egypt)
• 3 seek progressive political reform (Morocco, Jordan,
Oman)
• 4 use oil manna to keep status quo (Saudi Arabia, Kuwait,
Qatar, Emirates)
• 4 have bloody repression or civil war (Libya, Syria, Bahrain,
Yemen), of which 2 external military intervention (Libya,
Bahrain)
• 3 fragile but cautious because of civil war memories
(Algeria, Lebanon, Iraq)
• 1 pushes for statehood (Palestine)
Arab spring, political dynamics &
regime typology (cont.)
1.
2.
3.
Status quo
Progressive constitutional reform
Uprising ….
a.
b.
c.
d.
Moderate, on to 1 or 2
Violently suppressed, regime survives, on to 1 or 2
Civil war, regime overthrown, on to 3.d
Regime change, leading to …
i.
ii.
iii.
iv.
v.
vi.
vii.
New democracy
Dysfunctional democracy
Renewed corrupt authoritarianism
Military regime
Radical Islamic state
Failed state
Protectorate regime with external forces
Imagining Arab regime dynamics
Plausible scenarios:
• Morocco, progressive constitutionalisation of monarchy
• Saudi Arabia, status quo seems sustainable
• Egypt, Tunisia, new constitutions & elections, but multiple
scenarios for regime transition including regression (e.g.
Ukraine)
• Libya, Yemen, Syria, all options open, failed states possible,
democracy prospects weak
• Conclusion: wide spectrum of scenarios likely, instant
democracy implausible, external leverage limited;
• …. but Arab world no longer immune from demands for
democracy.