Obama’s “New” Strategy for
Afghanistan and Pakistan
Educational Series
Camillo “Mac” Bica, Ph.D.
Central Asia 2009
Federally Administered
Tribal Areas (FATA)
Bajaur
Mohmand
Kyber
Orakzai
Kurram
North Waziristan
South Waziristan
_______
Durand Line
FATA & NWFP
North-West
Frontier Province
(NWFP created 1905)
Peshawar
Kohat
Bannu
Laki
Tank
Dera Ismail Khan
_______
Population
@ 20 million people
About 2/3 Pashtun
Population
Punjab
@ 3 ½ million people,
mainly Pashtuns, most
living in rural areas
Balochistan
Obama’s New Strategy for Afghanistan and
Pakistan: Why we Fight
•“The terrorists who planned
and supported the 9/11 attacks”
are still active in Afghanistan
and Pakistan.
•Al qaeda still seeks to kill “as
many of our people as possible”
and is “actively planning further
attacks on the U.S. Homeland
from its safe haven in Pakistan.”
•“Our men and women still fight
and die there” to ensure our
national security – the safety of
the American people.
Is This the Change We Hoped For?
According to Obama’s new
strategy, the Bush Administration
was correct in its recognition of the
reality and the seriousness of the
threat posed by al Qaeda.
Where they went wrong was:
•In becoming sidetracked by the
war in Iraq.
•In being overly cautious, too
conservative, in not pursuing al
Qaeda into Pakistan.
Obama’s New Strategy
To implement an
aggressive,
comprehensive, and
multi-faceted strategy
that escalates our
civilian and military
effort in both
Afghanistan and
Pakistan (AFPAK).
The Civilian Component
NGOs and corporate contractors will “help the Afghan Government
serve its people.”
•“$1.5 billion in direct support to the Pakistani people every year over
the next five years.”
•Obama recognizes the
corruption and waste that has
characterized corporate
contracts up to now and
promises oversight and “that
the days of unaccountable
spending, no bid contracts,
and wasteful reconstruction
must end.”
Obamas Contracts
•On Obama’s
watch, KBR has
been awarded a
$35.4 million
contract to build a
convoy support
center in Iraq
despite being under
investigation for
the electrocution
deaths of two U.S.
soldiers.
•KBR together with DynCorp International (another corporation
guilty of abuses in the past) hold the 10 year LOGCAP contract
worth $150 billion to provide a broad range of support services to
U.S. and allied troops in theater.
Accountability
Secretary of Defense Robert Gates made clear that the use of private contractor
security forces - mercenaries – will continue under the Obama Administration.
Thus far there has been no accountability for past abuses and KBR,
DynCorp, Blackwater (Xe), and Triple Canopy remain integral
corporate players, Obama offers us little in the way of change and
hope for increase oversight.
The Military Component
Obama’s “. . . clear and focused” goal: to disrupt, dismantle,
and defeat al Qaeda in Pakistan and Afghanistan.”
•Accepts without discussion that we are
as much at war in Pakistan as we are in
Afghanistan.
•One of the expectations we had for an
Obama Administration was a return to
the rule of law and adherence to the
Constitution that requires that war be
declared not by Executive decree but
by a vote of Congress.
•Terrorist organizations such as al Qaeda
lack formal structure and function as
loosely affiliated groups and individuals
– what would victory look like?
Deconstructing Obama’s Strategy
Not only must we
defeat, disrupt, and
rid Afghanistan and
Pakistan of al Qaeda,
but Obama’s strategy
requires that we
ensure that they be
prevented from
returning to either
country in the future.
Implied Goals (IG)
To ensure that al Qaeda be prevented from returning
requires that:
The Taliban “must be met
with force, and they must
be defeated.” The mission
of the 17,000 troops
recently deployed to
Afghanistan is to “take the
fight to the Taliban in the
south and the west . . . and
go after insurgents along
the border.
IG#1:**Defeat the Taliban
Prevent a Slide Back into Chaos
The governments of Pakistan and
Afghanistan must achieve the stability
necessary to prevent a “slide back into
chaos.” This in turn requires:
•The elimination of corruption.
•The establishment of an effective and
honest western style democracy which
supports the “basic human rights of all
Afghans – including women and girls.”
IG#2: **Nation Building
The Pashtuns
Though the Taliban are generally Pashtun,
our mission will require, as well, the
defeat and/or elimination of the less
ideologically driven, though stridently
independent and conservative, Pashtun
Tribesmen (the dominant ethnic
community in Afghanistan) who will
fiercely resist the imposition of a western
style democracy.
•The name “Afghan” was given to the Pastuns by
their Persian neighbors and means “unruliness” or
“upheaval.”
•Pashtuns are Sunni Moslems.
IG#3: **Defeat the Pashtuns
The Real (Total) Mission
•The disruption
and dismantling of
al Qaeda in
Pakistan and
Afghanistan.
•The defeat of the
Taliban.
•The creation of an honest, western style democratic
government that respects the rights of all its citizens.
•Defeat of the inevitable “insurgency” waged by the Pashtuns.
Military Reality
Former Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Peter
Pace conducted a review of our nation’s total combat
readiness. He concluded:
•After years of combat operations
in Iraq and Afghanistan, there has
been an overall decline in our
military readiness.
•Our military is stretched to it’s
breaking point.
•Were our nation confronted with
another crisis, our military would
be incapable of responding
effectively.
Un-Fairness Principle of Un-Shared Sacrifice
Without the reinstitution of the draft, Obama’s strategy will likely
require the continuation of unacceptable Bush Administration
practices such as:
•Stop loss measures.
•Multiple deployments of exhausted troops with inadequate down
time.
•It is likely that Obama’s last deployment of 21,000 will include troops from the 10th
Mountain Division and the 82nd Airborne Division who will be on their fifth
deployment, facing dwell time ratios of less than one-to-one. That means they've
spent more time in combat than they have at home with their families.
•Increasing the frequency and severity of psychological casualties, Post Traumatic
Stress Disorder, alcoholism, drug abuse, and suicide.
•The continued federalization of the National Guard.
Economic Reality
With the cost of the “war on terrorism” expected to exceed $3 trillion and
our economy bordering on collapse, continuing the occupation and
escalating the war in Afghanistan and Pakistan is economic suicide.
“All that we have to do is to send two
mujahedeen to the farthest point east to
raise a piece of cloth on which is written al
Qaeda in order to make generals race there
to cause America to suffer human,
economic, and political losses without their
achieving anything of note other than some
benefits for their private corporations. We
are continuing this policy in bleeding
America to the point of bankruptcy. Allah
willing, and nothing is to great for Allah.” - Osama bin Laden
Cause for Hope?
Obama does indicate that he “will not blindly stay the course . . . and
review whether we are using the right tools and tactics to make
progress toward accomplishing our goals.”
Should benchmarks not be achieved or progress made,
•Obama will re-evaluate and make appropriate tactical (tool)
changes.
•But there is no indication that he will be prepared to admit that the
effort, though noble, is impossible of beyond what we are willing/able to
endure/pay in lives and treasure.
•Obama does not mention the possibility of withdrawing our troops and
equipment and just go home.
Some Questions We Need to Ask.
Obama warns us that “the road ahead will be long”
and difficult. - -
•How long will we
endure failure should
we not be successful?
How much treasure are we prepared
to squander in pursuit of our goals?
The Cost of War
•How many lives are we
prepared to sacrifice?
Is Victory Possible?
•Given the history of unrest and resistance in
Afghanistan,
•the complexity of the problems in the region,
•the variegated and confused goals to be
achieved,
***Are we convinced that our endeavor will not
suffer a similar fate to those those who came
before us?
The Graveyard of Empires
The Battle of Kabul and the retreat to Gandamak
(First Afghan War, January 1842)
The entire force of 690 British soldiers,
2,840 Indian soldiers and 12,000 followers
were killed or in a few cases taken
prisoner. The 44th Foot lost 22 officers and
645 soldiers, mostly killed. Afghan
casualties, largely Ghilzai tribesmen, are
unknown.
Soviet-Afghan War December 1979 - May1988
Some 160,000 Soviet troops strengthened
by 200,000 soldiers of the afghan
Communist army was unable to crush the
Pashtun/Mujahideen resistence.
13,310 Soviet soldiers died, 35,478
wounded and 311 are missing.
Legacy
Are we convinced that
President Obama, finding
himself embroiled in an
unwinnable war, with too
much invested in treasure,
lives, and reputation to just
pick up and walk away, will
not share the fate of another
Liberal Democratic President
whose dreams for a “Great
Society” became mired in the
quagmire of endless war.
Veterans For Peace Long Island Educational Series
The Wars in Afghanistan and Pakistan
For further information on this presentation or to invite VFPLI members
to speak to your group or classroom, please contact:
Camillo “Mac” Bica, Ph.D.
Coordinator, Veterans For Peace Long Island
P.O. Box 3 Commack, NY 11725
631.987.3338
http://www.vfpli.com