2014:
A Year of Recovery
and Opportunities
CSU Business Conference
March 12, 2014
Overview
 2014 in Sacramento
– State Fiscal Picture
– Elections and Changes
 Opportunities and Issues
– Budget Advocacy
– Issues
– Elections at Home
2
2014-15 Budget
3
“Despite the recent improvements in our budget
situation, there remain a number of major risks…
including the remaining budgetary debt and
hundreds of billions of dollars in longer term
liabilities… That is why wisdom and prudence
should be the order of the day.”
- Governor Jerry Brown
4
Proposed CA Budget Breakdown
5
Revenues and Expenditure Way Up
 Revenue is up $4.5 billion and expenditures
proposed over $8 billion
 Largest shares to:
–
–
–
–
“Wall of debt”
Proposition 98 (K-12 and community colleges)
Medi-Cal and Cal Works
State Deferred Maintenance
6
Governor’s Proposal for Higher Ed
 Second year of Governor’s Plan
– Increase; no more reductions
– $142 million increase over last year
– No increase in student tuition fees
 4th year in a row
 Theme: Innovation, efficiency, improvement
– Online courses
– Streamline time to degree
– Improve graduation rates
7
It’s Not a Money Problem….
It’s About Priorities
 General Fund revenues way up
– Proposition 30 revenues for all education
 Permanent budget increases abound
– Double digit in some cases
Real question:
Is higher education really a priority?
8
2014 Elections:
Change and Stability?
9
For the People’s Consideration…
 This Election
– All state officers
– New class of freshman legislators
 Propositions, propositions, propositions…
– Competing interests will affect elections, priorities
10
Governor’s Last Ride
 Governor will run for 4th and final term
 Other candidates:
– Tim Donnelly
– Neel Kashkari
11
How Does the Governor Fare?
 Governor Brown*
– 60% favorable rating
– 7% of voters aware of race
 Secretary of State Campaign shows $15+ million
in hand
*PPIC Report “Californians and their Government” – January 2014
12
Neel Kashkari Vs. Tim Donnelly
13
PPIC Statewide Survey January 2014
Satisfaction with Governor Candidates*
*Poll was taken prior to Kashkari
announcing
14
Statewide Races: Contested Races
 Controller
– John Perez v. Betty Yee v. Ashley Swearengin
 Secretary of State
– Alex Padilla v. Leland Yee v. Dan Schnur
15
Statewide Races: Downticket Seats
 Superintendent of Public Instruction
– Tom Torlakson
 Insurance Commissioner
– Dave Jones
 Lt. Governor
– Gavin Newsom
– Ron Nehring
16
Statewide Races: Downticket Races
 State Treasurer
– John Chiang (Current State Controller)
 Attorney General
– Kamala Harris
– Phil Wyman?
– Orly Taitz?
17
Current Legislative Make-up
 Democrats control both houses
 “Super” majority achieved last election – and
keeping it drives everyone
18
2013-14 Assembly
80 members Total - 2/3 Threshold is 54
19
Assembly Leadership Departing
 Speaker John Perez
 Republican Leader Connie Conway
 Budget Chair Nancy Skinner
20
New Speaker:
Unlike Senate An Actual Election
 Toni Atkins (San Diego)
– Termed out in two years
– Close ally of Speaker Perez
 Freshmen Class Candidates
– Gomez, Rendon, Eggman, Holden
 New Class
– Candidates in 2016?
– Role in selecting new Speaker
21
Republican Leaders Too
 Connie Conway termed out
 Caucus members positioning all year
– Chavez, Melendez, Olsen
– Maienschein, Bigelow, Wilk
 New Republican Caucus Chair
– Scott Wilk – Future leader?
22
Freshmen Class Composition
 42 new Assembly members
– Democrats 32, Republican Members 10
 On top of 30 new members from 2012
 This CLASS can serve 12 YEARS
 Largest Freshmen class since the 19th century
23
Assembly’s Composition
24
Assembly Make-up by Class and Party
25
2013-14 Senate
40 Members Total – 2/3 Threshold is 27*
*Calderon and Wright are on
Leave from the Senate
26
Key Senate Leaders Departing
 Leaders:
– President Pro Tempore Darrell Steinberg
 Friends and Allies
– Alex Padilla
– Lou Correa
 Less Than….
– Leland Yee
27
Senate Leadership
 New Pro Tempore has NOT been selected, yet
– Kevin de Leon has been endorsed by Steinberg
 Interim Candidate
– Mark DeSaulnier – now to Congress
 Others in the Wings
– Holly Mitchell
– Bob Hertzberg
28
Key Races to Watch:
The Fight for Supermajority
 Assembly:
– Steve Fox (Palmdale)
– Jeff Gorrell* (Camarillo)
– Sharon Quirk-Silva (Fullerton)
 Senate:
– Anthony Cannella (Ceres)
– Lou Correa* (Santa Ana)
– Andy Vidak (Fresno)
*Open Seat
29
Propositions
“The ballot initiative process remains one of the
strengths of California’s system of government.”
- LA Daily News
30
Current Potential Ballot Count
 Two qualified for June Ballot
– Public Records Act for local govt
– Veterans bond restructuring
 Four qualified for November Ballot
– Rainy Day Fund; from 5% to 10%
– Water Bond; $50 million for CSU
31
Propositions in Process
 Over 50 in various stages
– 23 initiatives with the Attorney General
– 32 initiatives out for gathering signatures
 Minimum Wage Proposal
– Increase wage to $12 by 2016
 High Quality Teachers Act of 2014
– Termination based on performance not seniority
 Oil severance, tobacco taxes
– Policy and politics
32
Last Year of Session:
What Will 2014 Bring?
33
2014 Legislative Introduction Deadline
34
Bill Count – 2013-14
1st Year
2nd Year
Total
Assembly
1585
1343
2928
Senate
955
659
1614
Total
2540
2002
4542
35
Legislative Trends Over Last Decade
Session
Assembly
Senate
Total
2005-2006
3229
2311
5540
2007-2008
3112
2419
5531
2009-2010
3068
2266
5334
2011-2012
2719
2127
4836
2013-2014
2540
2002
4542
36
Issues for Today and Tomorrow
 Bonds
– $11 billion bond or not?
– Education bond in 2014, 2016?
 K-12 Reform Continues
– Common Core, Transitional Kindergarten
37
Election Related Issues
 Prison Overcrowding
– New prison construction v. reforms by 2016
 Pension and health care costs
– Employer and employee share of cost, benefits
 High-Speed Rail
– Legacy issue for governor
38
Higher Education Specific
 Campus Climate
– Sexual assault reporting
– Hate Crimes and overall climate
 Community college bachelors degree
– Nursing or other applied degrees
 Performance measures and accountability
– More defined, directive
39
Campus Climate
 AB 1433 (Gatto) – Reporting of Hate and Sexual
Crimes to Local Jurisdiction
 AB 1549 (Rendon) – Requires Sexual Harassment
Policy be Posted on Internet
 AB 2168 (Campos) – Taskforce Investigation on
Discrimination and Violence
 SB 967 (deLeon) – “Affirmative Consent” as part of
campus investigation of possible sexual assault
40
Financial Aid and Fees
 AB 1976 (Quirk-Silva) – Expands the new number of
Cal Grants offered to 50,000
 AB 2566 (Weber) – Extends the Period of Time you
can Apply for Cal Grant by One Year
 AB 1456 (Jones-Sawyer) – Pay it Forward Measure
41
Accountability and Oversight
 AB 1348 (J. Perez) - Postsecondary education:
California Higher Education Authority
 SB 1196 (Liu) - Public higher education: state goals
 SB 1022 (Huff) - Labor market outcome information
42
Making the Year Count for CSU
43
PPIC Statewide Survey January 2014
Key Issues Facing California
44
PPIC Statewide Survey January 2014
Preference for State Spending
45
More Money, More Competition
 Budget is opportunity and challenge
– More money means more demand for support
– Election year, political allies, local communities
 Competition requires proactive effort
– Time to match rhetoric with reality
 Engage beyond the university, issue for campaign
 Make the ask for investment and redesign
 Hold them accountable
46
CSU as a Good Investment
 Up against varying and competing priorities
– Harder to seek new money than manage cuts
– Election year shifts focus
 CSU must show value as a partner, innovator
– What we are doing today, what we are prepared
to do for the future
– Ability to improve, willingness to change
47
Tell the Story
 CSU is valuable investment because…
– Assist in meeting the workforce gap
 Local and statewide needs
 Employers, industry, community leaders
– Value of college degree
 To state and local economy
 Employment opportunities, job development
48
Tell the Story
 Innovation and efficiencies our way of life
– Online teaching and learning
– Innovative programs and partnerships
 Improvement is a goal
– Graduation Initiative
 Results to date, future efforts
– Transfer Reform
 Implementation of SB 1440, other efforts
49
Being Ready to Make the Case
 New Chancellor values advocacy
– Active partner already
– Expectation of campus leadership focus
 Advocacy Plan to guide our work
– All university responsibility
– Common goals and objectives, unique campus
approaches
50
Summary
 Budget, elections: challenges and opportunities
– New investment, redesign; not restoration
– Improvement, completion and access
– Role in state’s economy, successful residents
 Changes require ongoing advocacy efforts
– Competition for revenue
– Last term with governor, more than 65%
legislators new
51
Summary
 Budget proposal increase funds for CSU
– But falls short of Board request by $95 million
 Not a money problem, a priority issue
– Stakeholders must make case together
 Making higher education a real priority
– Our real friends must step up
 Beyond rhetoric, be held accountable
52
www.calstate.edu
53