Trends in the Pharmaceutical
Industry and the Potential Impact
on Future Innovation and Access
to Medicines
Dr. Brian W Tempest
www.briantempest.com
Mumbai
31 July 2013
Hale & Tempest
Dr Brian Tempest advises Companies, Banks, High Net Worth Individuals and Investment Funds on
their Strategy in the Emerging World based on his wide experience in China, Japan, South East Asia
and India where he has lived for the last decade.
Brian has worked for Ranbaxy Laboratories since 1995 holding the position of Managing Director
and Chief Executive Officer until 2005. He was then Chief Mentor and Non Executive Director until
2008 when he retired. He is one of the few westerners to have led a Sensex Nifty 50 Indian blue Chip
MNC and as a result has a valuable insight into India. Brian has also worked for Glaxo as Regional
Director Far East and Regional Director Middle East & Africa from 1985 to 1992.
Brian has worked in the Pharmaceutical Industry for the last 41 years and has managed Healthcare
businesses in North America, South America, Europe, Africa, Middle East, Australasia, China, Japan
and India. He has also led many sessions at Investor Meetings held around the world.
He is now Independent Chairman of Religare Capital Markets PLC , a Non Executive Director of
Fortis Healthcare the leading Asian Healthcare Company, a Non Executive Director of SRL the
largest Indian Diagnostic Company and a Non Executive Director of Glenmark Pharmaceuticals. He
is a member of the SCRIP Global awards panel and is on the Editorial Board of the Journal of
Generic Medicines. Brian speaks at global conferences and more information on these presentations
can be found on his website www.briantempest.com.
Brian has a PhD in Polymer Chemistry from Lancaster University in 1971 and in 2009 he became
Chairman of the Advisory Board for the Lancaster University Management School, UK. He is a
Fellow of the Royal Society of Medicine and a Fellow of the Royal Society of Chemistry and is a
Chartered Chemist. He is now Chairman and Senior Partner of Hale & Tempest Co Ltd
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Healthcare costs versus GDP & Wages
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Everybody Concerned about Health Costs
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Increasing Generics & Biosimilars
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A Slide from a UK Headhunter
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Pharma in Crisis
Source: Pharmatimes February 2013
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Generics versus Big Pharma
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Patent Cliff to 2018
source: Evaluate Pharma, Sandoz
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Top 25 Global Generic Companies
Source: Generics Bulletin 10 June 2011
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Rest of Top 50 Generic Companies 2012
source: Generics Bulletin June 7 2013
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Products Going Off Patent in 2015 $33b
Source: Evaluate Pharma 14 February 2013
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The Teva Future – Standing Still
Source: RBC Capital 12 December 2012
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Global footprint of Watson/Actavis –
excluding most of the developing world
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Actavis R&D Assets
source: Actavis Promotional Material before Warner Chilcott acquisition
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Actavis Manufacturing Assets
source: Actavis Promotional Material before Warner Chilcott acquisition
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Sandoz Sales 2012
source: Novartis, Generics Bulletin June 7 2013
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Indian Generic Cos continue to grow
Source: Pharmatimes World News Feb 5 2013
•Many Indian Companies in 2013 showing a sales growth
of >20%
•Indian Pharma Exports 2008-2012 around the World
have shown a %CGR of +19% in sales
• New Product Pipeline in USA ANDAs shows approvals
from India in 2012 was 37% with 178 out of a total of 476
and in 2011 33% with 144 out of 431
•New ANDA filings of ANDAs in the USA from India
indicate 51% in 2011 and 49% in 2010
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India’s First Compulsory Licence after 3
years at a high price Source : Economic Times 13 March 2012
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More CLs on the way in India
Source: 29 March 2013
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India 1st Patent dismissed for timing, 2nd
patent for Evergreening
Source: Financial Express 2 April 2013
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Anti Cancer Drugs At Delhi Airport
Source: New Delhi Airport 28 March 2013
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But Indian Price Cuts
source: Hindustan Times 20 June 2013
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Aggressive EU-India Bilateral FTA
Source: ET 27 March 2013
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The Future of IP?
•In 2012 Big pharma had the best NCE year since 1997
•There are $230b sales going off patent in 2013-2018 but
only half will be replaced by generics owing to biologics
•Big Pharma is finding the BRICS markets tough
•More CLs likely from the BRICS countries owing to
evergreening or a very high price limiting access
•Do all patents need to be 20 years? The first USA patent
law in 1790 was for 14 years. Amazon suggest 3-5 years.
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•What is the point of a patent if only the rich can use it?
Thank You
brian.tempest@clara.co.uk
www.briantempest.com
Hale & Tempest