Pharma Trends
Dr. Brian W Tempest
www.briantempest.com
Mumbai
May 9 2014
Hale & Tempest
Dr Brian Tempest advises Companies, Banks, High Net Worth Individuals and Investment Funds on
their Strategy in the Emerging World based on his wide experience in China, Japan, South East Asia
and India where he has lived for the last decade.
Brian has worked for Ranbaxy Laboratories since 1995 holding the position of Managing Director
and Chief Executive Officer until 2005. He was then Chief Mentor and Non Executive Director until
2008 when he retired. He is one of the few westerners to have led a Sensex Nifty 50 Indian blue Chip
MNC and as a result has a valuable insight into India. Brian has also worked for Glaxo as Regional
Director Far East and Regional Director Middle East & Africa from 1985 to 1992.
Brian has worked in the Pharmaceutical Industry for the last 41 years and has managed Healthcare
businesses in North America, South America, Europe, Africa, Middle East, Australasia, China, Japan
and India. He has also led many sessions at Investor Meetings held around the world.
He is now Independent Chairman of Religare Capital Markets PLC , a Non Executive Director of
Fortis Healthcare the leading Asian Healthcare Company, a Non Executive Director of SRL the
largest Indian Diagnostic Company and a Non Executive Director of Glenmark Pharmaceuticals. He
is a member of the SCRIP Global awards panel and is on the Editorial Board of the Journal of
Generic Medicines. Brian speaks at global conferences and more information on these presentations
can be found on his website www.briantempest.com.
Brian has a PhD in Polymer Chemistry from Lancaster University in 1971 and in 2009 he became
Chairman of the Advisory Board for the Lancaster University Management School, UK. He is a
Fellow of the Royal Society of Medicine and a Fellow of the Royal Society of Chemistry and is a
Chartered Chemist. He is now Chairman and Senior Partner of Hale & Tempest Co Ltd
Hale & Tempest
2013 The Year of 8 Blockbusters
source: Evaluate March 2014
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2013 the 8 Blockbusters
source: Evaluate March 2014
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Sovaldi (sofosbuvir) for Hepatitis C
Source: Pharmatimes February 7 2014
•In USA Gilead Sciences charges Sovaldi at $1000 a day
for a 12 week course -$84,000
•The cost of manufacture of the same 12 week course is
$68 to $136 according to MSF generating a gross profit
over 99%
•In India and other emerging markets Gilead plans to
charge $2,000 for a 24 week course leading to a gross
profit of 86%
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South Africa IP actions - back to 1998
Source: Leaky Pharma 27 Jan 2014
•1998 Merck vs Mandela, Big Pharma PR disaster
•India Trips interpretation - Enhanced Therapeutic
Efficacy vs Incremental Efficacy
•2014 Merck, PhRMA, Lobbyist PAE vs RSA again
•“This is genocide, This can sentence South Africans to
death” – RSA Health Minister (Motsoaldi)
•WHO Executive Board – “we cannot be sidetracked
from our course of action of defending public health and
the right to life” (DG Precious Matsoso)
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•Sovaldi Q1 2014 sales a record $2.2b
Access & Innovation
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IP Protection
source: Swiss Federal Institute of Intellectual Property Oct 2006
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First Herceptin Trastuzumab Biosimilar
source: ET January 14 2014 Rs 40,000 per 440mg vial, Roche halved price at Rs 55,000
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Big Pharma Shuffle
source: FT
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Cash Acquisitions vs free cash flow
source: FT 19 February 2014
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Acquisition, Divestment & Spin Offs
in 2014 valued at $220b from 2012 $50b
•Novartis - divested Blood Diagnostics, Animal Health,
OTC, Vaccines and gained GSK Oncology
•Bayer - Bayer Material Sciences likely sale and
interested in Merck OTC
•Pfizer - Nutrition & Zoetis Animal Health divested but
bidding for AstraZeneca (who may bid for Shire)
•GSK - divest tail products, drinks brands, oncology
brands and acquired vaccines and OTC
•Valeant - bidding for Allergan
•Teva - looking for large acquisition
•Shire - buys ViroPharma and Fibrotech
•Mylan - looking at Meda
•Sun - buying Ranbaxy
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•Merck – OTC and Generics for sale
R&D Spending by Country
source: Economist March 22 2014
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USA Generic Market - Latest Challenges
source: Jefferies 10 March 2014
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EU Chemical Sales
source: Chemistry World September 2013
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Open letter to Barroso from the Chairman
of INEOS (Jim Radcliffe) on 7 March 2014
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Pharma FDI
source: PWC April 2014
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CPhI Russia 137 Companies
Source: 17 April 2014
•China 67
•Russia 21
•India 12
•Italy 7
•Czech Republic 5
•Poland, Germany, South Korea 4
•Indonesia, Pakistan, Romania, Latvia, Slovakia,
Morocco, Jordan, Spain, Greece, France, Ukraine Hale & Tempest
Switzerland, Malaysia 1
Source of Big Pharma Sales Growth
source: PWC 2014
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Russia 2020 Strategy
90% local manufacture of VLS list
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Russia – Low Volume Growth
source: PharmaTrac March 2014
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Russia – Value Sales Growth
source: PharmaTrac March 2014
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Russia Pharma Industry
source: PWC April 2014
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Russia - Protek already has 158 products
source: CPhI Russia 17 April 2014
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India New Government?
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Corruption
source: Hindu January 2014
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Military vs Health
source: FT 24February 2014
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Sun Pharma Q4 2012
Source: Generics Bulletin 15 February 2013
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Sun + Ranbaxy
source: Sun investor presentation 9 April 2014
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Sun Track Record of Turnaround
source: Sun Investor presentation 19 April 2014
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India after Sun-Ranbaxy
source: Sun Investor presentation 9 April 2014
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World Top 15 after Sun-Ranbaxy
source: Sun Investor presentation 19 April 2014
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Indian Pharma in USA
source: Citi Research August 2013
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Indian Pharma in Europe
source: Citi Research August 2013
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India Pharma – EU to EM, % of Sales
source: Citi Research August 2013
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brian.tempest@clara.co.uk
www.briantempest.com
Hale & Tempest