\ MICKOECONOMICS Ecorcnies of Scole (EoS) ore experimced when unit a# fall as l'llc *ab of p rod wti ott fuirreo*s. lnternal EOS . Technical Economies . Specialization and Division of Labour . Less training is needed . Simpler jobs, workers can be more efhcient - lndivisibility of capitalgoods like machinery . ' RnD to develop more efficient methods of production CostAdvamages . targe Firms . Pricing power . Greater market share and market power . Non-PriceCompetition . Greater resources available for non-price competition . Small Firms . Niche Market - Reach out to consumers who desire individuality and variety - More personalized services - i.e. small accounting firms . SubcontractingRelationship . Provide infrastructural support for the large firms -'ContainerPrinciple' . For capital equipment for storage purposes, it tends to cost less per unit of output the larger its size Cost related to Surface Area Output related toVolume Greater Efficiency of Large Machines More output can be gained for a given amount of input, more efficient use of raw materials i.e. 1 worker needed to operate machine, regardless of whether it is big or small Marketing Economies Bulk Purchase for lower price and betterterms . Prcfit Maximization . . , . . Reduced transportcosts by bulkdistribution . Large scale advertising, lower per unit cost Financial Economies Considered more credit worthy, easier to be awarded large loans Enjoy lower interest rates on big loans Risk-BearingEconomies Larger market share, predict demand accurately Diversification of products to minimize potential losses Administrative and Managerial Economies Often, when firms merge, savings can be made by Short Run: . . . . Long Run: rationalizing IM . - . producs lnGrnaldisEOS AR Reorganizing of production to cut waste and duplication May cause unemployment though. Economies of Scooe Largecompanies produce a range ofproducts lndividual product producd more cheaply than ff it was produced by a single-product firm Marketing and distribution costs as well as administrative and financial economies can be shared amongst all the A. K . . . . ManagementDifhculties . Problems in coordination and communication . PoorWorker Morale Graph e/a/c production. lf MR exceeds MC, revenue will increase more than cost of production is increased. KH . lf MC exceeds MR, profit can be increased by cutting back on LA . AN I MC= MR . . l}r Background Theoty - Rwenue Bd<ground Theory - Cost . -tt2Ecor{outct MICROECONOMICS Shut Donn Point Firm will shut down if revenue cannot cover variable costs, as it can go some way to pay off the fixed cost All costs are variable in the long run, hence it will shut down if AR is lowerthan LRAC Barriersto Entry Econonries of Scale (Naunal Monopoly): Not efficient for more than one firm to o<ist in the industry due to lower unit cost achieved from substantial economies of scale. Hence, average cost will be lower if industry was under one firm. This is mostly because of high fixed or setup costs, especially in industries like transport and public utilities. Lwer CosB for Established Flrm, because an established firm is likelyto have developed specialized production and marketing skills, and would be aware or implementing the most efficient methods of production or the cheapest suppliers. Control wer l(ey Factors of Ploductlon. lf a firm controls the supply of key inpu6 eg de Beers companyb control over diamond producers, it can deny access to potential rivals. Control overWholesale / Retail Outhts lcgal Protection: A Monopoly's position may be protected by patents on essential process and other barriers like tarifts and trade restrictions to keep out foreign competitors. Prcduct Difrerentiation and Erand loyalty lf consumers associate the product to the brand, it would be very difficult for potential entrants to produce a good of similar quality to attract consumers who are loyal to the brand. I{otes: Turning point of MC is where law of diminishing marginal returns set in. AFC falls continuously as total fixed cost (constant) are spread over more and more output MC cuts AVC and AC at minimum point lf MC < AC, new units cost less than the aveftlge cost, hence AC must be falling. if MC > AC< new units cost more than average cost, hence AC must be rising. EcTNFTDENTTAL DtrruMENTS AggressiveTactks by established firm: Price war; Advertising Campaigns etc. t]F BEN.JAMTN NG TzE wEE Shared by Benjamin Ng Distributed by A. KARIM LAKHANI (0333-TUTOR 4U) (0333- 888 67 48) (www.tutor4u.com.pk) Page:1 On owlcove.sg Distributed by A. KARIM LAKHANI (0333-TUTOR 4U) (0333- 888 67 48) (www.tutor4u.com.pk) H2 Ecolor,ilcs MrcRoEcoNoMrcs P Perfect Competition Large number offirmt such that each produces an insignificantly small portion oftotal industry supply, have has no power on the price ofthe product. Hence, it is a price taker. and can sell as much as it wants as its output is a negligible portion of market supply. Homogenous Product, hence there is no branding or nongrice competition like advertising. Considered perfect suhitutes (XED = 1) No Barriers to Entry leading to complete freedom to entry and exit. This means that if a firm is earning supernormal profit, new firms wi[. be attracted to the industry. lndustry supply increasel causing price to fall, and hence the firm will only earn normal profits in the long run. Perfect knowledge of the market exists. Consumerc are perfectly aware of prke, quantity and availability of product, while producers are fully aware of prices, costs, market opportunitiet and production methods. Short{un Equilibrium Price: Determined by the intersection of market demand and supply. Firm faces a horizontal demand (AR) curue at the market price. Quantit),: Maximize profitat MC=MR AN I YIClA Pl'lP KH P= DD. AR ? LA Long Run Equilibrium t{otrnq\ Pr{t lclv SLAL AR IM SBAC TKAL P. DD.ltta 0. ReaSnns for Existence (or Non*xistence) Advantages o o o o Allocative€fficiency o o A. K For PC to exist, EOS for the industry must be very limited. PC requires numerous small firms which cannot reap EOS. lf a firm expands sufhciently to achieve EOS, it will be able to undercut the market price and gain market power, and PC is destroyed. P=MC=MarginalUtility Optimal Resource Allocation Productive Efficiency Firm producesata pointon LRAC Competition amongst firms spurs efhciency Less efficient firms will make hss than normal profits and shut down More efficient firms get to earn supernormal profits (until other firms copy you) o o o o LowCosts(LowAC) o o o Desire for supernormal profit or to prevent losses supe6 innovation of new and cheaper methods of production No advertising costs Firm produces at lowest point on LRAC hence it produces at the least-cost output for the given state of technology Customer Sovereignty Customers. through the market and price signalt determine what and how much is to be produced Example, if demand rises, the resulting price increase will lead firms to respond to raise supply (in a bid to earn short-run profit) Firmscannot control price ofgoods o o o Disdvantages r o Dynamic lneftciency Firms may not have the incenti\re to develop new technology as their innovations are easily copied by rival firms May not have the funds for research and development o o LackofConsumerChoice PC lndustries produce undiffierentiated products. o EENFTDEN?|AL r).]cuMENTS EF BEN.raMrN Na TzE WEE Shared by Benjamin Ng Distributed by A. KARIM LAKHANI (0333-TUTOR 4U) (0333- 888 67 48) (www.tutor4u.com.pk) Page:2 On owlcove.sg Distributed by A. KARIM LAKHANI (0333-TUTOR 4U) (0333- 888 67 48) (www.tutor4u.com.pk) H2 EcoNoMICs M[RoECoNoMICS + Monopoly Single Firm in the markeu hence market demand is also the firmb demand curve. Firm! supply curve is also the market supply curve. Monopoly is thus a Price Setter with complete market share, with a downwad sloping demand cunre. Unique Product, no close substitutes, High Barrie6 to Entry allow firm to earn supernormal profits in the long run without fear of new entrants into the market. Combinotionof naturol ond artifrcialobstelesthotdeterorprevantnewfirmsfiom enteing a mo*et See List of Barriers to Entry Short Run Equilibriun Quantity: Maximize Profit at MC =MR PlLl\ AN I Sq4rnurmo\ lrufits LA KH Long Run Equilibriu,m Advantages o o o o is used IM o Productive Efficiency Firm producesata pointon LRAC Dynamic Efficiency Has the funds for research and development due to supernormal profits lncenti\re to innovate since techniques will not be copied by any rival firms if therc is good lP Protection May be able to supply a good if therc is no single price at which the producing firm can covertotal cost of production if Price Discrimination $Cm= SSf( ilLlA Pm ?r, ) F >mL t e\$q1M\ AR o _\ hrqh.rfic, \ou,ru:tP$ I A. K hc .01)rc fon' 0 Lower Price and Higheroutput lF Monopoly is able to reap substantial interhal EoS o ?ll)t7.,lSrc Pk P- Dlsadvantages o Allocativelylnefficient r o r o ' qK: lE=DDpc oPc &w. u Regardless of the level of output at the equilibrium, Monopolist does not achieve allocative efFciency as P>MC Higher Price and LouerOutput o o See Diagram TransfurofConsumerSurplustoPloducerSurplus HigherCosts(X-lnefficiency) No Competition, hence no impetus fior monopolist to de\relop more efficient techniques to minimize cost LaxCostControlssuchasoverstaffing Others Can practice price discrimination, which not only benefits the monopolist more, but also cause inequalities as some people have to pay more o o o coNF|DENT|A.L [)t]truMENTS oF BEN.J.AMTN NG TzE wEE Shared by Benjamin Ng Distributed by A. KARIM LAKHANI (0333-TUTOR 4U) (0333- 888 67 48) (www.tutor4u.com.pk) Page:3 On owlcove.sg H2 EcoNoMtcs Distributed by A. KARIM LAKHANI (0333-TUTOR 4U) (0333- 888 67 48) (www.tutor4u.com.pk) MICROECONOMICS * Oligopoly Few Dominant Firms, each with significant market share. High barriers to entry. Can be homogenous or differentiated product. Mutual lnterdependence of Firms and firms have to consider the reactions of other firms in decision making' price Stability, hence firms competitive via non-price methds like advertising where the firms aim to increase market share, through: A. Product De\relopment and lnnovation increase demand for its products' Firms must continuously seek out new products to provide it the competitive edge to Advertisement and Promotions demand for the Attempt to create a consumer perception of product differentiation even when there is noL to increase P/hlL product. ?L Advantages KH Ha\re the incentive as vrell as the funds for research and innovation. Greater choice due to product differentiation AN Disadvantages lCollusive Oligopoly has similar cosVbenefit to Monopolyl Competitive Oligopoly: May harre less scope for Economies of Scale than that of monopoly. Higher costs of Advertising I B. Marketing, Competitive - Fomal Colkrsion - Cartel ArLFrnk<'\) Demand Curve LA The firms act as a single firm or monopoly, will set a price or quantity at Assumptions: No Collusion, Product is Homogenous the intersection of the industry MC and MR curve. Rival Firms will match decrease but not increase Share of resulting sales depend on either: Non-price competition lf the firm lowers price rival firms will follow. Hence, while sales volume will increase, revenue falls. Hence it is price inelastic below current price. P/./a AR IM lf the firm raises price, rival firms will not follow hence the original firm will suffer a fall in revenue. Hence, it is price elastic above current price' market share. A. K Pre-determined quota given to each firm, often based on current Each member, under cartel agreemenL produces at an output level for which individualJMbMC. Hence,each membercan increase its own proftts by producing more output than allocated. Hence. there is a tendency for members to cheat on allocated quotas. TacitCollusion - Price lcadership Firms keep to the price set by an established leader, often the most dominant firm or the most reliable one. MR curve is a discontinuous line. Evaluatlon: Explains the phenomenon of price stability, even in the face of minor cost changes. As long as the MC shifu within the vertical section ofthe MR Curve, price and output is unchanged. However, it does not o<plain how initial equilibrium price and quantity are reached. Price rigidity can be due to other causes such as high menu costs (costs involved in re-printing labels, printing new brochures etc) ComPetftive - PriceWars Strategy to eliminate new competitors or to increase market share by cutting the price temporarily. Firms that are unable to sustain the losses will be forced to leave the industry. They are often waged when a firm has significantly lower costs of production than othert so that its losses would be minimized. very costly to wage, hence often a last resort strategy. EtrNFIDENTIAL DtrtrUMENTS OF EIEN.JAMIN NG TZE WEE Shared by Benjamin Ng Distributed by A. KARIM LAKHANI (0333-TUTOR 4U) (0333- 888 67 48) (www.tutor4u.com.pk) Page:4 On owlcove.sg H2 ECONOMIC5 Distributed by A. KARIM LAKHANI (0333-TUTOR 4U) (0333- 888 67 48) (www.tutor4u.com.pk) MrcRoEcoNoMlcs + Price Discrimination proctice of charging different pricesforthe same ptduct or for differmt units of it when such price differences do not resultfrorn differences in cost Aim: To generate higher revenue and more profit than when a uniform is charged. Conditions Requircd: Monopoly power, so that consumers cannot turn to ahemative suppliers. lt must also be able to set its own price. geographical boundaries, age group etc. seepage refers segregation ofthe Market, to prevent seepage between markets through conditions like marka. product higher-prked to the resell the to the situation when consumers in the lower-prked market price in the more Different pED in Different Markets. Revenue can only be increased if they charge a higher price in the price elastic market price inelastic market and a lower Mvantages / Dlsadvantages groups who are unabh to I price is for Sorne consumers will have to pay more, while others pay less. May be socially beneficial if the loweled afford the servke previously. to slash prices in other' AN Monopolies may use price dixrimination to dri\re consumers out of business, using profits from one region if the profits are spent in research and innovation' Raises monopoly profits, whkh may be an undesirable reallocation of income in society, but may lead to lower costs in the future. First Degtcc: LA KH When o fum charges euh ansumer for eoclt upitthe maximum price which tltat consumet is willing Fr(, -----i There is a complete loss in total consumer surplus. Not practical in the real world, as it is impractical to charge every lo pqy fot that unif- orips\ i61'6515 DD 'AK,= r''ttt it different price. and 6rms do not know the price each customer is IM willingto pay. it Whmofirmchorges A. K totrr\ \tsS 4 AR There may be increased output and allocative efficiency is reached. A<- t[ //* 2 t], , €"1\ monqrtlql rs s\ll 4\a\t n vmo./{.PwroYvnc'\ Pn}rts I SecondDegrce: so manyunitspurdtad,ond odifferent(normally lower) pricefor thenantsomarry uniEputchased. ThirdDegrce: priceto consuners in Whq ofirm divides con*mers inu differentgtoups and charges a different priceto consumers in diflerent grwps, buttlp. mme FR -\v Note: MR must be the same fota\l markets, otherwise revenue couU Gincrcased by reallocating resources from one market to another' Er]NFTDENT|.AL DasuMENT5 oF BEN.raMlN NE TzE \^/EE Shared by Benjamin Ng Distributed by A. KARIM LAKHANI (0333-TUTOR 4U) (0333- 888 67 48) (www.tutor4u.com.pk) Page:5 On owlcove.sg Distributed by A. KARIM LAKHANI (0333-TUTOR 4U) (0333- 888 67 48) (www.tutor4u.com.pk) .-H2EcoloMtct MICROECONOMICS lLr Regulation of Monopoly / Oligopoly Ain* ELunpSumTax lmprorc Consumer Welfarc (aka lower prkes, higher outpttt) Ensure Monopcilies remain viable Reduce albcative ineffi ciency Sotle lneqnlity in income distributiofl by redistributing tax rcvenue from nonopolbs to the general pubHc Ac. 1 Ac A.Lffiandl4dA.don S$ntrno\ p^fas . rsu. Presence of laws designed to preveot formation of monopcilies, such as antitrust laws. Other methods irrclude limiting mergers, breakiqg up of monopolies, introdrring competition, reducing patent period etc. ln Singapore, the Singapore Competitive Commission (2006) acts against the abuse of monopoly povveL B.ll*ionahatio Price Output unchanged Monopoly Profit-per-unit &reased Redistribution of incorne from monopoly to go\rernment C.tGPrfdng F.SpeciicTax Settingthe Prkeat P= MC lncreases Variabb Costs (AC, MC Shifs Upwards) LA KH AN I For natural monopolhs of strategk national intercsts, they can be nationalized by ttle state. The state is not profitdrirren, hence will be able to produce at the allocati\relyeff€ient level of drtput M Results: RI Prke Lorercd, Output Higher Allocative Efficient profis (especiatly for natural I monopoty mnv suffer fronr subnonnal [-monopolies with substantial intemal EOS) * KA ILiCPridng A. SetthrgttE Prkeat P=AC AC ML L*er Pricc Rabe4 outptrt Profit per unit decreased Burden of rax borne partly by monopolist and partly by the consumer. Ihcory of ConhstrHc Msd(ets Free entry ard o<it from the market tence there are no sunk costs of production The threat of competition rrleans that regardless of the number of firms in the industry, they will act as if it is a perfectly competiti\re market This is because ff entnnt firms think they are more efficient than the cunent firm, they will enter the market forcing the cunent firm to stayefficbnt Flence, normal profits are earned in tlre long run as firms are forced to lcwer costs, and firms have the impetus to produce as efficiently as possible. Evaluetion Does not take into accouflt the possible reactions of the established firmt as cunent firms may adopt an aggt€ssive stance and threaten Price Loryuercd. Output Higher Reduces Allocative Etrrciency newromers with prke wars, hence becorning an entry deterrent as Monopoly eams normal profir welL S"lrnuma\ Pd( Ferv markets are perftctly contestable, and hence a monopo$ may still be abh to make supemorrnal prdts in the long run. Ho,vever, in theory it allour for the achhvement of low costs and efhciency by still allowing firms to leap economies of scale. AC lqc 0.r EoNFTDENTTAL DBtruMENTS oF BEN.JAMTN NE TzE WEE Shared by Benjamin Ng Distributed by A. KARIM LAKHANI (0333-TUTOR 4U) (0333- 888 67 48) (www.tutor4u.com.pk) Page:6 On owlcove.sg Distributed by A. KARIM LAKHANI (0333-TUTOR 4U) (0333- 888 67 48) (www.tutor4u.com.pk) H2EcoNoilrcs E.CONOMICS Showing Economic Gtowth via PPC Microeconornic Goals . . . . J}L MACRoECONOMICS r X+ Equity / Equality Measured by Gini Coefficient Economic Efficiency lncludes both allocative and productive efficiency Production on a Point on the PPC 'I . I l- t-:-- . . l i !- .SMC=SMB \, Goals of Firms . Maximize Profit Goals of Government Maximize Social Welfare ,;' ftdur,t ,/, - Macroeconomic Goals . . Showing Economic Gtowtlr via AD/AS Full Employment Zero Cyclical and Structural Unemployment Stable Exchange Rate Healthy Balance of Payments GrL . /i AD AD' tt _.> As,' I . . Sustainable Economic Growth Both Actual and Potential Growth Low lnflation Rates (2%- 5%) . KH AN . I I l i I I ECOilOMICGROWTH i Actual EG: Annual 96 lncrease in National Output Potential Eg: Annual 96 lncrease in Productive Capacity l Key lndicator: GDP / GNP Determinants AE =C+ G+ l+ (X-M) PromotesSocialWelfare More Equitable lncome Redistribution Under a progressive tax system, tax revenue will increase when incorne increase Governrnent can spend more on social weffare . . . programs Reduces Unemployment . lncrease in AD will help reduce ryclical . . KA RI . lncreased Levels of Consumption Higher real income lncrease in Purchasing Power Cwill increase . . . . unemploynent Potential growth due to increase in productivity may reduce structural unemployment Environment Benefits Environmental consciousnesstendstoincrease with increase in affluence . A. . M Benefits of High and Sustained Economic Grwth LA Singapore:15% in 2008 Singaporc's Policies Conducive environment to attract foreign investment, such as maintaining strong infrastructure and investing heavily in education to train workers. > S{rd 0rrPu1 I{ational tncomeAccounting I IilDICATORS I GDR Total market value of all final goods and services produced within the geographical boundaries of a country during a specified period i GttlR Total market value of all final goods and services produced by factors of production owned by residents, during a specified period. Factor Cost Market Price Price purchasers have to PaY Refers to what the factors of for the goods and services sold on the market production received for the lncludes indirect tax lncludes subsidies goods and services GDP (Market Price) + NPIA GNP (Market Price) + Subsidies / - lndirect Tax GNP (Factor Cost) - Capital Depreciation NNPrc (National lncome) EI]NFTDENTTAL DotruMENTs oF BEN.J.a.vtH Ne TzE WEE Shared by Benjamin Ng Distributed by A. KARIM LAKHANI (0333-TUTOR 4U) (0333- 888 67 48) (www.tutor4u.com.pk) Page:7 On owlcove.sg Distributed by A. KARIM LAKHANI (0333-TUTOR 4U) (0333- 888 67 48) (www.tutor4u.com.pk) H2 EcoNoMrcs MACRoEcoNoMICS : v SOL: Quality of life, encompassing both material and non material well being. Material well being refers to the quantity and quality of goods and services available, while non-material well being includes social factors like working hourt stress and pollution. C-an weconcludefrom the increase/decrease in GDPthat SOL has risen/fallen? Factor Elaboration Remark lncrease/Decrease in GDP lncrease in the guantity and quality ofgoods and services in the markeL available to the consumers for consumption I in GDB t in Materialwell Being, 1 SoL Nominal GDP does not take into account changes in Price level, and thus may be Changes in Price Level Real GDP should be used as it measures the value of output at constant prices. As such, an lf lnflation rates are high, t in Nominal GDP is mainly due to increase in prices and negligible increase in output and SOL I misleading. AN increase in real GDP will indicate a rise in output, and hence SOL Populations tend to change over time, and thus an increase in GDP may not indicate an increase in an individual's share of national income. lf population increases faster than real national income, individua13 share of Nl will be falling even if GDP KH Changes in Population t GDP per capita should be used instead. LA lf a large proportion of the increase in GNP is due to higher spending on deftnse or space exploration, SOL would not have increased. GDP measures a country's output, and thus includes both consumption goods and Composition of GNP/GDP investment goodt but SOL is onlyaffected by consumption goods. M A fall in national income due to increase in consumer RI lncrease in GNP may not be equitably distributed to the people / sectors, thus one cannot say that the average person is better off. Distribution of GNP/GDP KA lndicators like the Gini Coefficient are needed to show whether the increase in Nl also caused widening of the income disparity lf a transaction which was previously nonmonetary becomes a monetary one, Nl figures will see a rise without a corresponding A. Non-Monetary vs Monetary Transactions A rise in Nl that arises from a rise in exports does not correspond to a rise in SOL ff income generated is not spent on consumer imports increase in welfare. lf the small majority (the rich) reaps in most of the benefits from the increase in Nl, while the majority remain poor, the SOL of the average person would not have increased. E.9. Voluntary Charity Work contributed to the total output offinal goods and services in a country but are not accounted for in Nl Nl understates the true level of production as some services do not pass through the market National income figures are mere estimates based on samples. Nature and Reliability of Data The country may also lack proper accounting systems, where officials lack expertise in data E.g. lncome tax may be understated for occupations like hawkerr collection, or where there are many inaccessible areas GDP does not measure intangibles which Social Factors affect the quality of life and the general well being of the society at large. (non-material well being) Other indicators like HDI and KlLlare needed EoNFTDENTTAL DEtrUMENTS oF BEN.JAMIN Rising Nl and production leading to higher levels of pollution willcause SOL to fall. Rising Nl due to increased productivity from an increase in working hours mayactually cause SOL to fall. Nc TzE WEE Shared by Benjamin Ng Distributed by A. KARIM LAKHANI (0333-TUTOR 4U) (0333- 888 67 48) (www.tutor4u.com.pk) Page:8 On owlcove.sg Distributed by A. KARIM LAKHANI (0333-TUTOR 4U) (0333- 888 67 48) (www.tutor4u.com.pk) H2 Ecor{oMrcs MACRoECoNOMICS _ v C.an we conclude that one country has a higher/lower SOLiust because it has a higher/lower GDP? Remark Elaboration Factor Different Provision for depreciation because of different accounting practices and tax laws Different Accounting Practices Different methods of valuing inventory/ Exclusion ofchange in inventory in Nl Different Size of Non-Monetized Sector Developed countries have goods and services exchanged in an organized market. but barter trade (not in Nl) may still be prevalent in low incomefamilies Exchange rates ale volatile, does not reflect actual purchasing power and may be subject to manipulation bythe government orto Different Currencies are lnvolved PPP must be used to oftset the shortcomings ofthe omcial exchange rate Real income of some developing countries may be lower but production is concentrated on consumer goods and services AN Differences in Composition of Nl I huge capitalflows Lower Living standards despite a high GNP may be due to greater inequality in the distribution of income Differences in External Costs Higher output may be accompanied by higher levels of pollution, congestion and depletion of natural resources Differences in the work hours vs leisure time A higher GDP may be the result of people working harder or longer hours Differences in availability, reliability of data Comparing relatively more accurate estimates of advanced countries with relatively inaccurate figures of more backwatd countries will yield misleading results A. KA RI M LA KH Differences in Distribution of lncome cDNFTDENTTAL DotruMENTS BF BEN.JAMIN NE TzE wEE Shared by Benjamin Ng Distributed by A. KARIM LAKHANI (0333-TUTOR 4U) (0333- 888 67 48) (www.tutor4u.com.pk) Page:9 On owlcove.sg Distributed by A. KARIM LAKHANI (0333-TUTOR 4U) (0333- 888 67 48) (www.tutor4u.com.pk) H2 EcoNoMrcs MACRoEcoNoMtcs - v AE=Y For use when the question is regording the effect of chonges to C G I X M on nationol income and employment, or to aqloin recession or the solving of it by increosing AE such thot it diminishes the deflotionary gap as the economy moves towqrds full employment AE=C+G+l+(X-M) There is only one level of national income where AE equals the total value of goods and savices prcduced. Equilib,rium Level of National lncome is the level of Nl which, when reached, will be maintained until further disturbed Aggregate Expenditurc is the total planned expenditure on goods and services in an economy. Consumption(C)=a+bY a: Autonomous Consumption, minimal amount of consumption that households will still spend on even if Y = 0 bY lncome-lnduced Consumption, consumption that increases as income increases (b: MPC) APC: Proportion of Total lncome that is consumed I MFC: Change in consumption as income changes AN Represents the gradient of the Consumption Function DeErminants: l. Wealth i. More Accumulated Wealth, tC '....91 KH 2. General Price Level ,- --' i. lncrease Price Level ii. Erodesthe real valueof income, Cl bruktrr-t pcrrrt 3. ftpectationsaboutFuturelncome i. LA Expect Rising lncomet 1C now 4. Consumer Credit i. Lower interest rate, lower cost of borrowing, tC 5. Distribution of lncome 6. Taxes M i. lncrease in tax lowers disposable income, thus Cl RI lnvestment (l): Expenditure over a given period on the production of capital goods and on net additions to stock of goods I{OTE Changes in I increases Nl by a magnified amount the multiplier, but also inoeases LRAS and Productive Capacity KA Firms aim to maximize profits, and thus they will only invest if the expected rate of return is greater than the expected rate of interest. As such, there is an inverse relationship between interest rate and level of investment, as shown by the MEW curve. /r I I Determinants: 1. BusinessExpectations l. Business Optimism: Expected rate of return higher, I t 2. BusinessPessimism:MceVersa A. MEI 2.' Cost of new capital goods 1 3. . lf cost of K suddenly increase, I 1 ' lnnovation and Technology 1. lmprovement in l&T stimulate a demand for additional i capital goods, causing I 4. ProfitTaxes t l. Firms estimate rate of returns by considering expected after-tax profits ft'lrr' 2. Rise in corporate tax thus decreases the expected rate ofreturn,causing I t 3. It also decreases the amount of money firms have for investment Government E<penditurc (G) represents the current spending and capital spending by the government on the provision of social goods and services. lt is assumed that G is autonomous. Net Eeorts (X-M) refers to the difference between the value of exports and values of imports, and is dependent on external factors which are often beyond the control of governments. lt is also assumed to be autonomous. EoNFTDENTTAL Dt]CUMENTS oF BEN.JAMTN NG TzE WEE Shared by Benjamin Ng Distributed by A. KARIM LAKHANI (0333-TUTOR 4U) (0333- 888 67 48) (www.tutor4u.com.pk) Page:10 On owlcove.sg Distributed by A. KARIM LAKHANI (0333-TUTOR 4U) (0333- 888 67 48) (www.tutor4u.com.pk) H2EcoiloMrcs iBR _. MACROECONOMICS r Determining Equilibrium National lncomet theAE =Y Diagram Note: x-axis for the diagram refers to nominal national income, does not take into consideration price levels AE =Y *r =t .--- Below Full Employment Deflationary Gap Shortfall of AE below Nl at the full employment level Situation of Economic Recession Deficient Demand causes unemployment . . . - AE" ...-' -''l)" NI Above Full Employment lnflationary Gap Excess of AE over Nl at the full employment level No spare capacity Any shift in AE only causes demand pull inflation Rise in Nominal GDP but no rise in Real GDP -1er. KH A Multiplier Effect The rise in AEwill cause o mognified change in Nl based on the multiplier ratio (k),wherek= ANI / AAE = I/MPW = l/ (l-Mrc) Normal Multiplier: LA tusuming Singapore has an MPC of 0.5 and a resulting MPS of 0.5, an injection of 540 million will have the following effects. lt portion causes Ni to rise initially by 5210 million, and this increases people's income by S40 million.These people, in turn, spend a for million of generates new income S20 This in turn million. another while saving million, S20 income of this new of S20 producerl who will spend half of this new income (Sl0 million), while saving the other half. The cycle continues until equilibrium national income is reached, where total injections = total withdrawalt and the total expansion of Nl is S80 million, where k= 2. Reverse Multiplier: themultiplierk=2. AR I M Assuming that Singapore has an MPC of 0.5 and a resulting MPS of 0.5, a leakage of 540 million will have the following effects. ln the first itage of thi multiplier, Nl will contract by an initial amount of S40 million, and this will cause a decrease in income of the people, whowill in tum deqease consumption by S20 million, and another S20 million is lost in savings.The second stage of the multiplier will cause the Nl to fall by a further S20 million due to the lowered consumption, and this in turn will decrease the consumption of the people by a further 510 million. The third stage will see the Nl contracting by another 510 million, and the cycle wiil continue until the equilibrium national income is reached again. As such the total contraction of Nl is 580 million, as A. K The Singaporc Scenario: Very low multiplier (0.54) Traditional values of thrift Compulsory Savings Scheme (CPF) High MPS: Trade volume 30@6 of GDB highly dependent on foreign imports for raw materials as well as consumption Hlgh MPM: goods as Singapore herself lack natural resources. CtrNFTDENTTA.L DEcuMENTE oF BEN.JAMtN NG TzE \A/EE Shared by Benjamin Ng Distributed by A. KARIM LAKHANI (0333-TUTOR 4U) (0333- 888 67 48) (www.tutor4u.com.pk) Page:11 On owlcove.sg Distributed by A. KARIM LAKHANI (0333-TUTOR 4U) (0333- 888 67 48) (www.tutor4u.com.pk) H2 EcoNoMrcs MAcRoEcoNoMtcs - v AD/ASAnalysis For use when the question is regarding the changes in price level as national income dtonget comparing inflationary grovvth and noninflotionory growth os well os showing demand pull inflotion ond cost push inflotion. Definition Aggregate Supply (AS) Aggregate Demand (AD) Factor Shows the inverse relationship between price lerrel and real equilibrium output at which planned expenditure equals actual income Amount of goods and services all firms in the economy are willing to supply at different price leraels over some given time, usually a year Downward Sloping Fall in domestic price levels will Exports more competitive + Xl Domestic Goods preferred + MJ ChangesinCGlXM . . . . . . . SRAS Changes in Economic Outlook Changes in expected inflation rate Government Policy (Fiscal) Changes in Money Supply Changes in lnterest Rate Change in Exchange Rate Changes inTrading Panne/s Nl M Factors that Shift Curve lncrease PP of S + Ct KH ' ' ' Three Ranges Keynesian Range: Excess Capacity lntermediate Range: Some Supply bottleneck Classical Range: No Excess Capacity LA Slope of Gmph AN I Sraph . . Changes in input prices or COP SupplyShock Both LMS and SRAS lncentives like Lower MarginalTax Rate . . . . . Changes in lnstitutional-Regulatory Env, Capital Stockand Human Capital TechnologyandEntrepreneurship LabourForce lnfation Type of lnflation RI A sustained increose in generol price level Demand Pull lnfiation:tAD exceeds 1A5, economy with limited/no excess capacity lncrease in C G lX M (See Determinants of AD) KA Causes lncrease in Money Supply Cost Push lnfation: Caused by JAS (SMS) due to rising Cost of Production Wage Push Wages rise faster than productivity gain *Wage-Price Spiral Excessive growth ofthe money supply can cause an A. increase in AD as people have more money to spend on goods and services lmport Price Push lncrease in P of imported raw materials, increase Cost of Production Profit Push Firms use market power to raise prices and extract more profits Tax Push Adds to cost of living Firms raise prices to ofBet costs Graph T,,' t\ rl lx ''lf rl--++l\< (lrP Ct]NFTDENTTAL DotrUMENTS oF BEN.JAMTN NG TzE wEE Shared by Benjamin Ng Distributed by A. KARIM LAKHANI (0333-TUTOR 4U) (0333- 888 67 48) (www.tutor4u.com.pk) Page:12 On owlcove.sg Distributed by A. KARIM LAKHANI (0333-TUTOR 4U) (0333- 888 67 48) (www.tutor4u.com.pk) H2 EcoNoMrcs MAcRoEcoNoMrcs - Effects of High Infatlon Effects on Economic Growth lf mil4 firms may experience higher profits margins Firms who are unable to keep up with rising costs by as factor costs are unlikely to rise in the short term improving productivity and efhciency will feel a significant pinch in profit margint as such investment is discouraged due to pre€greed contracts, thus investment and growth is encouraged Effects on lncome Redistribution V Some segments of the population may experience windfall gains, and others losses: Fixed lncome Earners suffer, as their real income falls while Variable lncome Earners do not. Firms benefit during DPI as profits increase. but suffer during CPI as profits diminish Savers suffer as the real value oftheir savings decrease Debtors gain because the value of the loan will be less in real terms lncreases Unemployment Effects on Unemployment Reduces Unemployment Effects on Allocation Results in Misallocation of Resources due to distortion of price signals in the market. E.g, Producers may be unable to distinguish normal price increase from real price increase as such they may end up producing more even though real prices might not have changed. Renders unneeded administrative cots to keep up with the constant change in nominal values (menu costs) Px l, causing Qd J as exports lose their competitiveness in the foreign market. Demand for imports increase as foreign goods are cheaper than domestic goods NI Effects on Balance ofPayments Falling Export Revenue, Rising lmport Expenditure (this assumes PED > 'l ) KH A BOP Deteriorates Falling BOP Causes Exchange Rates to weaken Effects on Currency Value Continuous High lnflation may also erode investorS confidence, and thus are likely to pull their capital out of the country.This causes massive capital flighL and thus currency crisis (sharp devaluation) Decreased Purchasing Power of currency Efiects of Low and Stable lnfation LA Low and Stable lnflation (2-5%) is a sign of a buoyant and expanding economy with jobs and output growth t Stable hices and Eusiness Optimism causes investors to have a higher expected rate of return. and as such I lncrease in AE + Magnified lncrease in Nl and Y based on the multiplier, k =+ Actual Growth, High Employment lncrease in LRAS =+ lncreased Qty of Capital Goods + lncreased Productive Capacity + Potential Growth Allow for Non-lnflationary Economic Growth M . . . AR I Savings are also encouraged, as lnterest Rate > lnflation Rate. and thus increasing funds for investment i Exports more competitive if inflation rate is lower than that of other countries. Quantity Demanded of Exports increase (more than proportionately if PED > 1 ), increasing Export Earnings, lmproving BOP and Strengthening the Exchange Rate The Singapore Scenario Prices of certain essential items like cooking oil, bread, milk and other diary products have gone up significantly over the past year Snowstorm in China disruptsfood supply,causing supplyshocks . High Global Prices of food and oil, increasing Cost of Production Tax Push lnflation . A. K . Import Price Push lnflation Rise in GSTfrom 3%to 5% Rising Values of Property increase in rental and business costs EoNFTDENTTaL DEtrUMENTS trF BENJAMIN NG Tzr Wee Shared by Benjamin Ng Distributed by A. KARIM LAKHANI (0333-TUTOR 4U) (0333- 888 67 48) (www.tutor4u.com.pk) Page:13 On owlcove.sg Distributed by A. KARIM LAKHANI (0333-TUTOR 4U) (0333- 888 67 48) (www.tutor4u.com.pk) H2 EcolrroMrcs MACRoEcoNoMrcs .E v Unemployment Refers to the number of people of working oge who are without worh but willing and oble to toke up employnent The labour force refers to oll within working age, who are willing and oble to work ond are either employed or seeking employment llnemployment Rote = No. of Unemployment / Lobour Force x 100% Full Employnent iswhen the economy hos no qlclical unemployment Cyclical Unemployment Cause Demand Deficient, Decrease in AD such as during the downswing Firms find that they cannot sell at current outpuL so stock pile up Firms thus cut back on proportion and fire workers Policy Raise AD through fiscal and monetary policies Structural Unemployment Changing structure of the economy causes mismatch between worker's skill and job requirements. This can be caused by a change in the pattern of demand or methods of production. lt arises when changes in technology or international competition change the skills needed to perform or change I Cause Poliry Provide finance of unemployed workers who wish to acquire new skills that are currently in demand Steer the education system towards the needs ofthe economy. Supply Side Policies (Shift AS) KH Seasonal Unemployment Cause AN the location ofjobs. Unemployment that varies with the season or weather, predominantly occur in temperate countries. Usually not a serious problem unless economy is heavily dependent on those industries Diversifu its industries LA Policy Frictional Unemploynrent It takes time for workers to match with suitable jobs flmperfect lnformation] Not a cause of concern, may be good as a better match between workers and job after sorne deliberation would mean the economy becomes more efficient Policy lmprove Job lnformation services by providing job centers IM Cause Effectsof Unemployment Standard of Living is lowered AR Loss of Production and lncome Decrease in an economy's actual output, possibly causing deflationary gap A. K loss in Human Capital Prolonged unemployment may cause to lose touch of the skills and knowledge he once possessed, and may face increasing competition with the fresh graduates Costtothe Unemployed and their Families Workers lose their financial security. possibly leading to loss of self esteem, strest and even suicide and mental illness loss inTax Revenues Loss in income, thus government loses tax revenues from income tax. Unemployed do not pay income ta& and spend less thus lowered collection of GST. There is also increased expenditure on welfare payments Loss in Social Stability Leads to greater incidence of crime, violence on streets, drug abusq alcoholism and vandalism EoNFrDENTr.a.L DBtrUMENTS EF ElEN.TAMTN NE TzE WEE Shared by Benjamin Ng Distributed by A. KARIM LAKHANI (0333-TUTOR 4U) (0333- 888 67 48) (www.tutor4u.com.pk) Page:14 On owlcove.sg Distributed by A. KARIM LAKHANI (0333-TUTOR 4U) (0333- 888 67 48) (www.tutor4u.com.pk) H2 EcoNoMrcs MACROECONOMICS v - Fiscal Policy through Tax or Government Expenditure The deliberote manipulotion of govemment expenditures andtaxesto promote mocroeconomicgools Government Expenditure Taxation Types Current / Ordinary Expenditure includes the expenditure incurred in the day-to-day routine work and is recurrent year afteryear ProgressiveTaxTaxtakes a higher proportion of one's income as income increaset more equitable RegressiveTax Percentage of income paid in taxes falls as income increaset heavier burden on the poor ProportionalTax Percentage of income paid out in taxes is the same as income rises Developrnent / Capital Expenditure includes spending on public investment AN I DirectTaxes are paid directly by the individual on which the taxfalls. Reduce disposable income of the individual. lndirectTaxes is one where the incidence of the tax can be shifted from the seller from the seller to the buyer. lt shifts the supply curve of goods, and they reduce the real value of income through the rise in prices KH Purpose Provision of Public and Merit Goods Raise Revenue for government to finance its expenditure, including the provision of goods and services not efficiently produced bythe market LA Reduce inequalities of incomg by taxing the rich more Redistribute lncome and Wealth through benefits and pensions proportionately than the poor (progressive tax) and using tax revenues to provide essential goods and services to everyone regardless of income. Regulate Economic activities and promote economic groMh Pay interest on the National Debt IM Correct Market Failure (esp. Negative Externalities) lnfl uence Level of total Expenditure Distribution of lncome AR Promote economic Arowth by giving tax holidays for the initial years for companies/industries. (S'pore corporate tax is 179o) Effects Resource Allocation . . A. K lncentive toWork lncome Effect Higher taxes force people to work more so lncome and Wealth Distribution Expenditure on health, educational services etc benefit that they have to cut down less on consumption mainly the poor, thus reducing extent of the inequalities Substitution Effect Higher taxes encourage people to of income and wealth distribution involve a work less as an extra hour taken in leisure smaller sacrifice in consumption Economic Growth Resource Allocation: favor the untaxed / lower taxed good Capital expenditure promotes potential growth Consumption (shift SS, DD unchanged) lndirect Reduce Qd ofgood Price Stability Direct ReduceYd, discouraging consumer spending G can be varied to raise / lower AD to reduce inflation or Ability & lncentive to Save . . . -' . Ability & lncentive to lnvest . Profits reduced to higher taxation, reducing investment to promote economic groMh E(]NFIDENTIAL DBtrUMENTE trF BEN.JAMIN NG TZE WEE Shared by Benjamin Ng Distributed by A. KARIM LAKHANI (0333-TUTOR 4U) (0333- 888 67 48) (www.tutor4u.com.pk) Page:15 On owlcove.sg Distributed by A. KARIM LAKHANI (0333-TUTOR 4U) (0333- 888 67 48) (www.tutor4u.com.pk) H2 Ecoronr,., il:B _ MACROECONOMICS r Fiscal Policy limitations & uses Expansionary Fiscal Policy increase G ond/or decrease tox so os to boost AD, AE ond Nl, reducing cyclical unemployment Contractionory Fixal Policy entoils o reduction in G ond/or increasing tax so os to reduce AD ond demand-pull inflation Uses Limitations Remedyfor: Crowding-out Effects Unemployment where does the money for fiscol spending come from? lf G was financed through tax, consumers will have less to spend, and if it was financed through loans, it will cause interest rates to increase, cutting back on investment.The.-.. increased government spending thus will be offset by lowgr Expansionary Fiscal Policy can increase AD/AE through increasing G, to stimulate corresponding increases in C, I and X so as to shift AE upwardt causing a magnified increase in natisnal irrcome and employrnent as there would be the creation of demand for labour. . NI private household consumption ad lower private sector It con anly solve cyclicol unemployment. Structural and ond investment May not stimulate consumption if only viewed as temporary measures. lnvestment is also dependent on business outlook as well, and thus tax cuts with a bleak economic outlook may not stimulate investment KH A fiictionol unemployment would require Supply Side Policies Limitations of tax cuts lnfation Contractionary Fiscal Policy can be reduce Demand Pull lnflation by causing AD to decrease Cannot solve cost push inflotion, requires SS Policies SlowGrowth Expansionary Fiscal Policy can bring about actual economic LA Relative lnfrexibility Much of government expenditure is tied down to long term contracts, and budgets are only drawn up once a year. gromh byincreasing AD. Time Lags For sustoinoble non-inflationarygrov,tth, shifts in AS brought obottt bySS policies ore olso needed Sizeof Multiplier lncome Disparity Progressive income tac the provision of merit and public good and the provision of transfer payments will aid in the achievement of a more equitable distribution of income A. K AR I M Small k means that increasing AE will only cause a small increase in Nl, limiting the effuctiveness of fiscal policy to raise output and employment EtrNFIDENTIAL DOtrUMENYS EF BEN.JAMIN NG TZE \^y'EE Shared by Benjamin Ng Distributed by A. KARIM LAKHANI (0333-TUTOR 4U) (0333- 888 67 48) (www.tutor4u.com.pk) Page:16 On owlcove.sg Distributed by A. KARIM LAKHANI (0333-TUTOR 4U) (0333- 888 67 48) (www.tutor4u.com.pk) H2 EcoNoMrcs MACRoEcoNoMrcs - v Supply Side Policy SS-Side Policies aim to encouroge ond reward individuol enterprise and initiotive, ond to reduce the role of the government; to put more reliance o morket forces ond competition, ond less on govemment intervention and regulotion. lf successful, AS curve wi ll shift outymrds. Remedyfor lnflation Remedy for Unemployment Remedy for Potential Growth Supply Side Policies aim to increose thetotol quantity offactors of production or encouroge grcaW yo d uaivity of fo cto rs of government budget . Resistance in acquiring new skills Population and Labour Force I . - production. . lncrease inflow of skilled and AN . Restructure Education System . Training Facilities and Grants . Skills Development Fund . CosBbecomeaburdenon Sotue Wage-Push/Profit-Prish lnflation Clamp down on trade unions Retraining of Labour, investment grants or tax incentives lncrease Productivity in tandem with wages Resistonce in acquiring new skills - (t6n4t, ds$ln on 6rms urlh rrvrqotu{tt . - unskilled foreign labour . Resentmentfrom Local Workerc . lncreaseCompetition ond hence efficiency KH Combat Structural Unemployment LA P(rn'16 Encourage Competition . Restrict Mergers and Takeovers . Privatization; Firms have additional incentive to cut costs for profit IM . Have to be followed with A. KA R deregulation to prevent Combat Frictional Unemployment monopoly formation . lmprove flow of information . Compromise guolity of goods and . Labour exchanges, job fairt career seruices guidance . Possibleunemployment . Conditional welfare benefits (e.9. recipient must make concerted effort to find employment) Price and lncome Policy . lmperfect information if employerc do . Short-Term SS-Side Policy not publish full list of requirements - Legislation to block wage rise . Price Controls (e.9. Price Ceiling) - Block Market . Wage Freezes - Distort market forces in the lobour morket - Confrontations with trade union - Social Problems likeCrime . Encourage higher fertility via profamily stance - Boby Bonus, Longer Maternity Leave, Better Chi ld ca re Enhance Human Capital lnvest Significantly in education via subsidies or direct provision Resentmentfrom Local Worken lncreoseCompetition and hence efficiency Sociol Problems like Crime Subsidize worker training SDF/ux deductions for firms who send their workers for training Education has a high gestation period (LongTerm) - . . . . . Savingsand lnvestment . High level of domestic savings provide funding for lnvestment through CPF and POSB . Encourage FDI through tax holidays . Wooing by EDB R&D . Encourage R&D via subsidies, preferential tax treatment and grants The Singapore Scenario Well Established Trade I Variable CPF contributions. The government can cut Union I employerd CPF contributions to lower the total wages the employer has to pay (20% -> 10% during AFC), but this may National Wage Council introduced a flexible wage structure, I cause households to be unable to finance house loans and with a fixed component and a variable bonus component. I reduce retirement savings. a recession, government can cut wages by reducing I variable I Skills Development Fund (SDF) subsidizes firms who send their workers for training Government charges and fees are reduced during recessions, I to help firms survive the I Out of every I 0 workert 4 have no received secondary the component ln recession education. EoNFToENTTAL DBtruMENTS oF EIENJAMtN NG TzE WEE Shared by Benjamin Ng Distributed by A. KARIM LAKHANI (0333-TUTOR 4U) (0333- 888 67 48) (www.tutor4u.com.pk) Page:17 On owlcove.sg Distributed by A. KARIM LAKHANI (0333-TUTOR 4U) (0333- 888 67 48) (www.tutor4u.com.pk) H2 Ecotomrcs lR -- MACROECONOMICS r Monetarv Policv lnterest Rate Centere'd Monetary PSlicy Monetary Policy is the deliberate attempt by the Central Bonk to regulate the money supply or monipulating the rote of interest to influence economic octivity so os to ochieve the mocroeconomic gools. Contractionary Monetary Policy Expansionary Monetary Policy I 0(y ahn'or*y Decrease in Money Supply lnterest Rate lncreases lncrease in Money Supply lnterest Rate Falls . AN The Liquidity Preference Curve - Money Supply and Money Demand Diagram . . Cost of Borrowing lncreases . Decrease in Consumption . Decrease in lnvestment . Rate of Return > Interest Rate . DecreaseAD . Cost of Borrowing Decreases KH . lncrease in Consumption . lncrease in lnvestment (MEl Curve) . Rate of Return > lnterest Rate . lncrease AD . Magnified increase in Nl 'Deutasctn CrPL LA Purpose Reduce Cyclical Unemployment Stimulate Economic Growth Reduce Demand Pull lnflation Limitations i RI M . Responsiveness of Demand for Money to lnterest Rate . lnterest Elastic Small change in MS cause significant fall in lR - People hold money for transactions and precautionary reasons . lnterest lnelastic Large change in MS required to cause significant change in lR . People hold money for speculative purposes KA . Responsiveness of lnvestment and Consumfiion to lnterest Rate **** . land C are lnterest lnelastic: - C and I unaffected by changes in lnterest Rate . Case 1: Economic Recession - Business Pessimism . Case 2: Economic Boom - lrrational Exuberance, Business Optimism, High Consumer Confidence A. . Size of Multiplier . lncrease in C and I increases AE, and thus Nl will increase in proportion to the multiplier k . Active Market for Bonds . Open Market Operations are only effective in reducing MS if the market for bonds is viable and broad based, else government's selling operations will be hampered . Liquidity Position for Bank . lf bank are holding large amounts of liquid assett they might not respond to changes in Liquidity Ratio. . Degree of Control bythe Central Bank . ln developed countriet lending activities are carried out by moneylenders who operate beyond the control of the Central Bank . LiquidityTrap (See Next Page) Note: Open Market Operations (OMO): Purchase and sale of government bonds by the Central Bank in the money and capital market to alter the money supply in the economy. Selling bonds will reduced the money supply, while the buying of bonds will increase the money supply. EBNFTDENTTA.L DEtrUMENTS ttF BEN.JAMTN NE Tze Wee Shared by Benjamin Ng Distributed by A. KARIM LAKHANI (0333-TUTOR 4U) (0333- 888 67 48) (www.tutor4u.com.pk) Page:18 On owlcove.sg Distributed by A. KARIM LAKHANI (0333-TUTOR 4U) (0333- 888 67 48) (www.tutor4u.com.pk) H2 Ecor{oMtcs MAcRoECoNoMlcs P LiquidityTrap additional material I 0t! "t s AN Expansion of Money Supply under the Liquidity Trap will not cause the interest rate to fall, and hence it will not lead to additional expenditure. Supply of Money increases from Q to Q' but lnterest Rate remains constant at R. KH Extract From: http://www.economicshelp.org A liquidity trap occurs when low / zero interest rates fail to stimulate consumer spending and monetary policy becomes LA ineffective. ln this situation, even an increase in the money supply could fail to increase spending because interest rates can't fall further. A liquidity trap means consumers' preference for liquid assets (cash) is greater than the rate at which the quantity of money is growing. So any attempt by policymakers to get individuals to hold non{iquid assets in the form of consumption by increasing the money supply won't work. M For a long tlme, the ma€ro-economy was managed by changing interest rates. So it is quite a shock for policy makers to experience a situation where their main policy tool was no longer sufficient. Hence the range of unorthodox monetary and r fiscal Liquidity Trap 2009 (USA) RI policies. KA Base interest rates were cut to 0.5olo in March 2009. For a considerable time, the economy remained in recession. Technically, the economy is now creeping back to positive growth, but, the economy remains sluggish. So 2009, has been a good example of a liquidity trap. . . . A. Why do LiquidityTraps Occur? . Expectations of deflation. lf there is deflation or people expect deflation (fall in prices) then real interest rates can be quite high even if nominal interest rates are zero. - lf prices are falling2o/o a year, then keeping cash under your mattress means your money will increase in value. The difficulty is in having a negative nominal interest rates (banks would be paying you to borrow money). There have been attempts to create a negative interest rates (e.9. destroy money in circulation but in practice it is rarely implemented. Preference for Saving . Liquidity traps occur during periods of recessions and a gloomy economic outlook. Consumers, firms and bank are pessimistic about the future, so they look to increase their precautionary savings and it is difficult to get them to spend. This rise in the savings ratio means spending falls. Alsc in recessions banks are much more reluctant to lend. Also, cutting the base rate to 0olo may not translate into lower commercial bank lending rates as banks just don't want to lend. Credit Crunch. Banks lost significant sums of money in buying subprime debt which defaulted. Therefore, they are seeking to improve their balance sheets. They are reluctant to lend so even if firms and consumers want to take advantage of low interest rates, banks won't lend them the money. Unwillingness to hold bonds. lf interest rates are zero, investors will expect interest rates to rise sometime. lf interest rates rise, the price of bonds falls (due to inverse relationship between bond yields and bond prices) Therefore, investors would rather keep cash savings than hold bonds. EENFIDENTIAL DEtrUMENTS oF EIEN.JAMIN NE TzE WEE Shared by Benjamin Ng Distributed by A. KARIM LAKHANI (0333-TUTOR 4U) (0333- 888 67 48) (www.tutor4u.com.pk) Page:19 On owlcove.sg Distributed by A. KARIM LAKHANI (0333-TUTOR 4U) (0333- 888 67 48) (www.tutor4u.com.pk) H2 EcoNoritcs MACRoECoNoMICS _v Excha n ge Rate.S;l:ffif,":$,M oneta ry Pol i cy Features Reasons l. Managed using a Basket of Curtencies I . Small Size Limited Resourcet Openness to Trade a. l,leed to import daity necessities and raw materials b. Small Dornestic Market c. (X+M)=4xGDP d. Need to maintain stable exchange rate to keep out cost- push inflation and maintain reasonable cost of living e. Adjusting interest rate would result in a volatile o<change rate and thus might affect trade and investor confidence 2. Managed Float Regime a. Exchange Rateallowed tofluctuatewithin an undisclosed band 3. Reviewed Periodically 4. Relinquish control over interest rate and money supply as wlren MAS inten enes to buy or sel] domestic currency in I 2. Openness to Capital Flow AN the forex markeL money supply witl fall or rise respectively. a. lnternational Financial Centre b.Small changes in domestic interest ratewill cause large capital movement c. EG lf interest rate falb investon will withdraw money and save in bank of another country with higher interest KH rates => Capital Outflow 3. lnactirie Secondary Bond Market a. OMO is ineffective Combatlnflation Gradual Appreciation of SGD during Economic Boom Reduce lmport Price hrsh lnflation A. KA RI Expensirte Exports Reduce Dx -> AD Falls -> Reduce DD Pull lnflation CombatRecession Depreciah against the USD M Cheaper lmports LA techanism . Exports beconre relatively cheaper . lf PED of Exports > 1 (Price Elastic) . Fall in Pwill cause a morethan proportionate increase in QD . Export Revenue lncreases . lmpors become relativeli more expensive . lf PED of lmports > I . lmport Expenditure Falls . (X-M) lmproves . lncrease in AD . lmprovement in Current Accountl BOP OR lf Marshall-Lerner Condition is satisfied, (X-M) will improve when exchange rate depreciates. ML Condition: PEDx + PEDw > 1 uimitatinns Elasticity of Export Dernand and lmport Demand . DOUBLECHECKWITHTUTORIAL Transrnission lags Takes time for changes in exchange rate to work Short Run: Temporary worsening of BOP Demand for Exports and lmports not price sensitive . . . Maintenance of a large Foreign Reserve . To support the exchange rate policy and to build investor confidence in the strength of the SGD lmperftct Knowledge Shared by Benjamin Ng Distributed by A. KARIM LAKHANI (0333-TUTOR 4U) (0333- 888 67 48) (www.tutor4u.com.pk) Page:20 On owlcove.sg Distributed by A. KARIM LAKHANI (0333-TUTOR 4U) (0333- 888 67 48) (www.tutor4u.com.pk) H2 EcoNoMrcs MAcRoECoNoMrcs .E v Excharg3"*?le Policy Fastors Affecting Echange Rate l(ef €oncepts regdding E Ghange Rate a. The o<change rate of the dornestic currency shows the l. Changes in demand for exports and imports price of domestic currency in terms of foreign currency b. One country's currency is only legal tender in that country c. Determined by intersection of demand and supply of 2. Capital Flows, short run and long run 3. Changres in domestic prices relativeto pricesabroad 4. Relative economic perforrnance of the country i. lmportsdependonYED curency 5. Changes in the relative interest rate a. Demand for currency is a derived demand b. EErived form foreigner's demand for our goods and services and financial assets i. lf domestic interest rates rise a. Attract furds for abroad, hence DD increases b. Locals discouraged from transftrring their funds o\rerseas 6. Anticipation in exchange rate movements AN I c. Supply deriried from local3 demand for imported goods :i.*iffi ::.:,.:;,:;,,:;iff .iljiiffi Rate of exchonge of one country's cunency by buying or selling ifscunentin thefora< is determind frely @ mo*et forces of ma*et using reseles to o<aaly oM the dtanges in ma*et demand ond supply. demand ond supply intheforeign exchange market. Ad\rantages: LA l. Automatic correction of BOP disequilibrium Adnantages: 1. Confidence and Certainty 2. Absence of Speculative Aaivity 2. No need to hold foreign exchange reserves 3. Freedom to pursue dornestic 1. No Automatic BOP adjustment to correct disequilibrium A. K BOPand EconomicGrow*r Disadvantages: 1. Lack of confidence due to volatility 2. lncreased Speculative Activity 3. AR 2. Need to maintain foreign reserves 3. Vulnerabh to currency crisis 4. No freedom to pursue own domestic goals due to conflicL such as between IM economic policies Disadvantages: Govem ment sr;ts an upryr and bwer limit toexchange ratefor the currency and allows the cunency to fluctuote within these limih, butwill intervene once it KH gwm nent m ai ntafuv th e fi xed rate Th e npves bepnd the bond. Advantages: 1. Some degrce of exchange rate stability 2. Some degree offreedom to pursue Domestic Policy, as it is not restricted by BOP situation Disadvaritages: 1. Need to maintain foreign exchange reserves Brdrange Rah Folky and Macroacmmic Obiectives l. Achierae High Growth 3. Correct Balance of Payments Problems ! t . Depreciation, assuming Marshall-Lemer condition is AD and hence allorrring growth I satisfied, will cause import expenditure to fall and export revenue to rise, reducing deficit 2. Stable Exchange Rate encourages more investrnent I 3. Low exchange rate may attract long term investments I due to lourcr costs of setting up operations | 4. Manage lnflation 1. Depreciation cause trade surplus to irrcrease, irrcreasing 4. Expectation ofapp reaction can attract inffow ofhot money l. ln economies which are open to trade they are highly susceptible to import-price push inflation 2. Appre{iation of currency keeps import price low 2. Reduce Unemployment preventing imported infl ation Ccf NFTDENTTA.L DoEUMENTS oF BEN.JAMTN Nc TzE WEE Shared by Benjamin Ng Distributed by A. KARIM LAKHANI (0333-TUTOR 4U) (0333- 888 67 48) (www.tutor4u.com.pk) Page:21 On owlcove.sg H2 Ecot{oMlcs Distributed by A. KARIM LAKHANI (0333-TUTOR 4U) (0333- 888 67 48) (www.tutor4u.com.pk) MACRoECONOMICS P lnternational Trade or most skillful at ond using these to trade for other The rationale is to speciolize is producing goods and services that one is best suited around the world' goodsond services that one needs. Setf iufficiency is impossible as FOP ore unequolty distibuted Specialization and trade will lead to an efficient allocation of world resources, and nations will be able to consume at points beyond the countrY's PPC Higher OutpuL Efficiency, Lower Costs and lmproved Welfare I countries like lndia if they specialize in labour intensive goods, pushing up wage rates, closing the wage gap between them and those of the developed world . lncreased Competition and Prevention of Monopolies FreeTrade: Exchange of goods and services between countries without any artificial restrictions. Note: Benefits of Trade still aPPlY. KH AN . Wder Consumer Choice and GreaterVariety . Higher SOL . Efficiency in production and LowWorld Prices . Economies of Scale (LRAC Falls) . lmport Cheapest Raw Materials => COP falls . Factor Price Equalization . E.g. Demand for labour in will rise in labour-abundant . Promote Economic EfficiencY . lnnovation and Transfer ofTechnology . Competition encourages entrepreneurship to improve competitiveness . Tech transfer from Advanced to Developing nations LA - "Engine of Growth" . Political, Social, Cultural Advantages A country has Abslute A&nntuge if she can produce more of thegoodthon the other countries using the some amount of rcsources A country hos Compomtive Mvanfuge if she con produce the good at a lower opportunity cost thon another country ffigestate5thattradecanbenefitallcountriesiftheyspecializeinthegoodsinwhichthey M have a comparative advantage. i A. KA RI Limitations: . Law of lncreasing Opportunity Costs . Complete Specialization is not possible . Not all resources are equally suited for all types of production . A country will lose her CA as she specializes further in the production of a good . Factor lmmobility between onetype of production and another . TransportCosts - Protectionism, Protecting domestic industries which do not have CA\ I Export Price lndex / lmport Price lndex ] x 100 note: TOT = 'l 00 in base year lmprovement ofTOT: A given unit of exports can now exchange for more imPorts Relationship betnreen TOT and BOT Depends on PEDx and PEDm lF Export Prices lncrease (PEDX > 1) . TOTlmproves . Qd of exports fall more than proportionately . Export Revenue falls -> BOT falls Export Revenue (X) - lmport Expenditure (M) PoSitive Trade Balance SurPlus Negative: Trade Balance Defi cit Relationship betweenToT and SOL Depends on PED" lF TOT improves and PED of Exports < 1, it means there is a greater Gpacity to import and hence a higher SOL CoNFtDENTI.A.L DotruMENTsi t3F BENJAMIN NG TzE WEE Shared by Benjamin Ng Distributed by A. KARIM LAKHANI (0333-TUTOR 4U) (0333- 888 67 48) (www.tutor4u.com.pk) Page:22 On owlcove.sg Distributed by A. KARIM LAKHANI (0333-TUTOR 4U) (0333- 888 67 48) (www.tutor4u.com.pk) H2 EcoNoMICs MACRoEcoNoMrcs .E v Protectionism I nternational Trade Part Two Evaluation Arguments competition from abroad. Protectionism will thus allow the lnaccurate identification of lnfant lndustries lnfant lndustries may fail to develop CA Duration of Protection - lnfant industries might become complacent or inefficient due to lack of exposure to industryto develop competition. Protection of lnfant lndustry lnfant industriel having potential CA cannot survive Consumer Suffert Domestic Resources tied up lower prices . Excuse for countries to keep out imported goods - Cost of Protectionism borne by domestic consumert who have to pay higher prices AN Foreign exports may be subsidized by the state using huge profits at home, to reap EOS and drive out local producers, leading to creation of Monopolies with the ability to raise prices and make consumers worse off. . Difficult to accurately identifr dumping . Foreign firms may be more efficient and thus able to sell at I Protecting against dumping KH - Monopoly Argument unsupported (only a hypothesis) . Protection may be difficult to remove once introduced . Slow down the restructuring process Protection of Sunset lndustries Protect industries who have lost their CA to create a buffer for . Prolong inefficient use of resources . Removal of protection can allow for economic restructuring workers and prevent massive structural unemployment. and development of new sectors . Other countries likely to retaliate with their own trade Protection against Domestic Unemployment from domestic Aoodt causing domestic unemployment Protection of Strateg:c lndustries barriers, sparking trade wars and causing rapid contraction in world output and income LA Claim that important foreign goods diverts demand away IM Existence of political or strategic reasons to protect a domestic industry such as to be be sufficient in times of war. E.g. Rice lndustry Defense Protection to (orrect BOP Disequilibrium Use trade barriers to reduce import expenditure, improve BOT . Protective tariffs and quotas justified. - No-tariff policy might not apply to all goods within the Fl-A . Stop-gap measure, other countries likelyto retaliate . Persistent trade deficit points to other fundamental weakness in a country's abillty to export AR Protection aoainst "Badf Protection against import of harmful goods e.g. Drugs Protection to improve TOT Restriction of imports mayforce foreign producers to lower A. K prices, improvingTOT Protection aoainst Low Waoe Countries Poorer countries operate on low wage structure, and thus able to compete on an'unfair'basis . Unlikely to work unless country has buying power - Probable retaliation by trading partners . Protectionism perpetuate the exploitation and workers cannot earn enough to rise above poverty . Prevent equalization of factor prices and wage rates . Work against welfare of consumers Protection to achieve Political Objectives Note Try to use the bolded arguments and not the unclCflineel ones. EENFIDENTIAL DDcUMENTS BF BENJAMIN NE TzE \A/EE Shared by Benjamin Ng Distributed by A. KARIM LAKHANI (0333-TUTOR 4U) (0333- 888 67 48) (www.tutor4u.com.pk) Page:23 On owlcove.sg Distributed by A. KARIM LAKHANI (0333-TUTOR 4U) (0333- 888 67 48) (www.tutor4u.com.pk) H2 EcoiloMlcs MACRoECoNoMrcs - v Tariffs Tox on lmports, con be Specific or Ad Volorem Redistribution Effect - Transfer of consumer surplus to domestic producer surPlus Protective Effect - Unnecessary higher MC incurred in producing and not importing the extra goods Revenue Effect - Government Revenue Consumption Effect - Decrease in Consumption Deadweight Loss = PE + CE ';. l trv'tl' Effectiveness . Causes loss to society - Consumers worse off (Loss of Consumer Surplus) . Other Policies more Effective . Depends on PED of lmPorts . EarnsGovernmentRevenue f '.* Dd 63 E q4 I Hidden Export Subsidies and lmport Restrictions AN Quotas lndirect form of protection given domestic producers to lower the actual cost of production allowing them to become more competitive. quantity that is less than that Limit the amount of imports to a prices also rise. will imports of free trade and under lmport restrictions include complex import regulations, technical and administrative regulations etc. Although not Does not earn revenue, effectiveness does not depend on intended to restrict trade, they have the effect of doing so prices. PED but foreigners may gain by raising KH Legal timit on the quontity of imports over a given period of time Exchange Controls Agreement to reduce the volume of trade in o specific good. Regulation of imports and exports via controlling availability of currencyvia goW buying and selling of foreign exchange LA Voluntary Restraint Agreements Embargoes Total Bans on certain importt often used as diplomatic tool. IM lnformal type of quota, often including provisions for increase in sales at some later date. Economic lntegration AR lnternational Trade Part Three Customs Union Common Market Economic Union Harmonizing monetary and fiscal policy of member countries. A. K FreeTrade Area Agreement to remove tariff and non-tariff barriers among themselves, maintain restrictions for non-member countries Operate as a single market, lifted restrictions on trade in all servicet capital and labour movement. May have common laws government production, employment and trade. Advantages Trade Creation, lncreasing Welfare Greater Output Levels and Extended Market Free movement of FOP allow FOP to move from areas of . abundance to scarcity . trlew ideat technology and skills flourish . Larger Market - Allow firms to grow and gain EOS lmprovement of TOT . a CU, through common external tariffs, has greater economic power for a reduction in tariffs by non-member nations Remove alltrade barriers, adopt a common external tarifffor non-member countries. Common currency and Exchange Rate Disadvantages . Trade Diversion : Trade diverted from a more efficient non-member producer to a less efficient but tariff-free member of the economic unit . Loss ofTariffRevenue . No net increase inTrade - TradeDeflection . lmports enter the FTA via the country with lowest external tariff and is then sold to other countries within the FfA . Loss of tariffrevenue . Countered by complex rules of origin which ensure that only goods produced within the FfA are tariff free . Loss of Economic lndePendence . Each member must consider policies of the Union limiting thefreedom of economic policies EoNFTDENTT.A.L DtrcuMENTS EF BEN.J.a.vtN Ne TzE WEE Shared by Benjamin Ng Distributed by A. KARIM LAKHANI (0333-TUTOR 4U) (0333- 888 67 48) (www.tutor4u.com.pk) Page:24 On owlcove.sg Distributed by A. KARIM LAKHANI (0333-TUTOR 4U) (0333- 888 67 48) (www.tutor4u.com.pk) H2 ECoNoMIcs MAcRoECoNoMrcs 'E v Globalization lnternational Trade Part Four The growing economic interdependence of countries worldwide through inoeosing volume ond voriety of cross-border transoctions in goods, services and free intemationalcopital and lobour flows. Equalization of COP - Take resourcesand goodsfrom Realization of a global common market: . Worldwide and broader access to where they are cheap to where they are expensive Erode differences in and living standard Contagion Effects - Transmission of shock from one Faster Catchup by the developing . range of foreign products . Movement of Resources . Firms have access to resources not only within their country countries due to the speed of technology transfer and information Stronger and Faster Contagion Effects country to another lnterest Rate Centered Monehry Poliry sensitive to global demand conditions KH Exchange Rate Centered Monetary Policy . Effective . lncreased shares of imports made CPI more responsive to changes in world prices . Higher risk of lmport-Price Push lnflation, makes policy LA . NotSoEffective . LostControl overCapital Flow - Lost of independency of use of lnterest Rate . lnflation less sensitive to domestic demand, more more effective Fiscal Policy IM . NotSo Effective . LowerTaxes on imports and corporate Profit . Might be able to gain higher tax revenue in economic boom . Wdening income gap, increased need for Government Expenditure to solve it (Social Safety Net etc) Higher change for increase in Public Debt Weaken fiscal discipline due to easier access to global AR . . fundsfor borrowing AN Policy lmplications I lncrease in information flow between geographically remote locations SupplySide Policy Effuctive . lncreased need for government to help business to identiff new niche areas and advances in technology . Greater need to climb up technology ladder to gain Comparative Advantage Trade Policy A. K . Signings of more FTfu, increased pressure for countries to lower import tariffs . lncreased Competition for Domestic Producers . May cause increased protectionism as countries try to protect employment and output Benefi* Economics of Scale Greater Competition Erosion of Monopoly Power Promotes Efficiency Prevents Exploitation lncreased access to Resources like Foreign Talent and Labour, which complement Singapore3 small domestic worKorce (low birth rate) Other Benefits of Free Trade / Economic lntegration . . . Costs . Growing lncome Gap . Wages of lowly skilled labour will generally grow slower than that of highly skilled labour . Contagion Effeets - Crisis in one country will affect all other countries. . Companies outsourcing to locations with lower labour costs . Stiff Competition from other countries who have greater resources etc. . Need to increase budget for R&D in order to stay competitive . More Susceptible to import-price-push inflation . Singapore stands most to gain from Globalization due to our heavy reliance on FDI and Trade but Globalization also makes us most Vulnerable to the the ups and downs of Trade Cycles and the World Economy. EENFTDENTTAL DotrUMENTE oF BEN.JAMTN NG TzE WEE Shared by Benjamin Ng Distributed by A. KARIM LAKHANI (0333-TUTOR 4U) (0333- 888 67 48) (www.tutor4u.com.pk) Page:25 On owlcove.sg H2 EcoNoMlcs Distributed by A. KARIM LAKHANI (0333-TUTOR 4U) (0333- 888 67 48) (www.tutor4u.com.pk) MACROECONOMICS BaI ?.nce g ojr,f"ay$"e n t s value of oll economic transactions betvveen the residents of the thi restof theworld during a specified period of time, usuollyoneyeor The Bolance of payments is o summory statement of the money countrywith The Current Account Trade in Goods Account (X-M) - lmport and Export of Tangible Goods 2. Trade in Services Account - lmport and Export of Services 3. lncome Flows/lnvestment lncome Account - NPIA etc I. 4. Current Transfers - UnilateralTransfers e.g. Contribution to lnternational Organizations The Capitil Account - NOT IMPORITANT disposal of non-financial assets Records debt forgiveness, migrant transfels, acquisition and KH AN I The Financial Account l. Direct lnvestment (Net) - Purchase and Sale of Real Assets to earn profit or rental e.g. MNCs build plants in Singapore interest 2. portfolio lnvestment (Net) - Plurchase or sale of Company Shares and Government Bonds to earn (shares) rate (bonds) or earn dividends of 3. other lnvestment (Net) - shortTerm lnvestments or Monetary Flow' Normally used to take advantage differences in interest rates or expected trends in Exchange Rate Note: Financial Account Surplus may cause Current Account Deficit' LA Official Reserves Account - (-) Favorable, (+) Not Favorable IM BOP Equilibrium means that trade and capital flows into and . Accommodated by reduction in foreign reserves or by borrowing in the fficial Reserves Account A. K AR . Depletion of Countryt Reserves . lf loans are used, it needs to be repaid with lnterest . Deflationary lmpact on EconomY . Contraction of Nl, UnemploymenL Falting SOL . Currency Depreciation, Loss of lnvestor Confidence . Freely Floating Exchange Rates . BOP Corrected automatically by Exchange Rate . BOP Deficit - Earns Less Foreign Currency than it spends . Sell Domestic Currencyto buy Foreign Currencies . Depreciationof ExchangeRate . Exports Cheaper - More Competitive . lmPorts ExPensive - Qd Decreases . BOP lmProves . Exchange rate will continue to depreciate until BOP Equilibrium is reached out of th" to'ntry ut" "q'ul *'u n"k*t . Unstable Situation, Surplus in one country implies a deficit in another . lnflationarY Pressures . Appreciation of CurrencY - Causes of Long Term BOP Disequilibrium . Dlfferent Rate of lnflation between Countries . Exports become less and less competitive if a country has higher inflation rate . Diffurent Rate of Growth between Countries . Economic Growth, lmports will rise faster than ' Faster Exports as lmports depend on lncome . LongTerm Structural Changes . Emergence of Trading Block, Development of Substitutes, Moving up the value chain towards exports of new growth industries Consequences of BOP Deficit Fall in Equilibrium National lncome . Fall in (X-M) cause AE to fall, Nl falts by magnified amount lncrease Liabilities to Foreigners through borrowing, aka at the expens€ of future spending . Finance curr"n, in the future . CA Deficit might"..orn,ieficit not be bad, if it i, dr-" to purchase of Capital Goods for production Less Employment Opportunities for Domestic Economy FDI providesEmployment,andRedirectionof FDI inioforeigncountries will causedomesticemploymenttofall . Account current the profit improve and in will bring . ln the long term, suth FDI ETNFtDENTIAL DBtrUMENTE EF BEN.IAMIN NE TZE WEE Shared by Benjamin Ng Distributed by A. KARIM LAKHANI (0333-TUTOR 4U) (0333- 888 67 48) (www.tutor4u.com.pk) Page:26 On owlcove.sg Distributed by A. KARIM LAKHANI (0333-TUTOR 4U) (0333- 888 67 48) (www.tutor4u.com.pk) H2 EcoiloMrcs MAcRoEcoNoMtcs - v Policiee to Correct Persistent BOP Def,cits Expenditure Switching Polkies SupplySide Policies Switching domestic expenditure awoy from imports while switching foreign expen d iture towards the country's exports Long term Policy to increose its productivity ond sharpen i* export competitiveness Expenditure Reducing Policies Use ofContractionory Monetory or Fiscol Policies to reduce AD and Nl in the country Protectionism . Trade Restrictions . lmports expensive, demand falls . Switch to cheaper domestic substitutes . Domestic Production lncreases, Unemployment Falls Supply Side Policy . lnvesting in Education . Encourage lnvestment . Takes time to work . lmplemented simultaneously with expenditure reducing and expenditure switching policies . Export Subsidies . Stimulate Nl Outflow . Tight Monetary Policy . Contractionary Fiscal Policy . ReduceADand Nl . lncome Falls . Demand forlmports Reduced . Demand for Domestically breed ineffi ciency, complacency Retaliation from other countries LA . . PEDm>1 Produced Goods fall . Advantages . Causes Domestic lnflation Rateto to develop new export markets . ExpertAssistanceto hasten the documentation needed for exports . Export Guarantee Scheme . Fora small premium,the government pays the exporters for goods sold abroad should the rorergn rmponers oeray paymenrs Denaluation of Domestic Currency . For Fixed Exchange Rate Regimes . Lowered Exchange Rate . Exports Cheaper, Qd lncreases . lmports Expensivg Qd Falls . Conditions . Marshall-Lerner Condition must be satisfied . Country must have spare capacity AR Fall, increasing price competitiveness and demand for exports . Rise in lnterest Rates (MP) attracts funds for portfolio investment . Special Assistanceto Exporters . Provide information and assistance IM . Exports Encouraged - Disadvantages - Economic Growth Compromised . Conflict betrreen domestic to increase exports and produce import substitutes - Disadvantages . Potential lmport-Price Push A. K goals of FE and E Grourth and external goals of BOP Balance . Best used to combat lnflation and lnflation . J-Curve Effuct - Demand for X and M may not BOP defi cit simultaneously . Decrease in M based onYED and MPM KH . Disadvantages . Forgoes benefits offreetrade . Shelters domestic producers, De{ationary Policies purposet increasing levels of capital inflow AN . ExchangeControls . Restrict lmportand Capital I Other Policies be price sensitive . Takestimefor Consumersto adjust spending habits . Currenta/c mayworsen in the short-run, improve in the long run flrr Note: Effects on Exports and lmports are affected by PEDx and PEDrvr respectively, but lmports are also affected by YED. *----"-"---r trtrt'( J-Curve EoNFTDENTTA.L DotruMENTr oF BEN.JAMTN NG TzE wEE Shared by Benjamin Ng Distributed by A. KARIM LAKHANI (0333-TUTOR 4U) (0333- 888 67 48) (www.tutor4u.com.pk) Page:27 On owlcove.sg Distributed by A. KARIM LAKHANI (0333-TUTOR 4U) (0333- 888 67 48) (www.tutor4u.com.pk) H2 EcoiloMrcs MAcRoEcoNoMKs - v The Singapore Scenario Small MarketSize-Too small to influenceworld prices Export Partners: Malaysia, Hong Kong, lndonesia, China, US (in that order) Small QuantiS of Resources - Price taker in Global Market, follow prices dictated by global 5S and DD Other Features World Class lnfrastructure supporting manufacturing and Open toTrade - Every Sl spent in Singaporg 51c leak out as imports (High lmport Content of Goods) tertiary sector Skilled and Educated Work Force lnternational Financial Centre - Open to capital flow Difficult to target MS, hence Monetary Policy is lneffective Eleorts have very high lmport Content Rise in import prices might drive up our Export Prices Aging Population Vulnerable to lmport-Price Push lnflation lmportant to have a low inflation rate I Surge in demand for goods and services for the elderly Resources have to be diverted to such needs KH AN Exports PED < 1 Erain Drain (Problem of Globalization) Sinsapore losins zr-5 its population High Value Added, Low Substitutes T:ffi::130%of lmports PED <1 We import everything, so no substitutes xD Major Government Eteenditure 20 billion in Circle Llne 8 billion North South Expressway Major lnvestments LA 5 billion lntegrated Resorts 1.2 Billion Worlds Largest Biodiesel Plant - Finland3 Neste Oil Heavily Reliance on Trade KA RI (X+M) 3.5Times of GDP Exports 2.5Times of GDP M BOP Not external debt since 1 995 Heavily Relianton FDI 70% oftotal FDI => Stands most to gain from Globalization A. FTAs - Enhance trade and investment flows due to lower tariffs, hassle free customs proceduret improved market accest easier entry for businessmen, better terms for investment in foreign countries ElgortGoods: Contributes >3096 of theWorld's HDD Output Seagate has also put its Factory of the Future and future R&D of its U-series HDD in Singapore Leading Semiconductor wafer fabrication with 14 Fabs Third Largest Oil Refining Centre in the World largest Manufacturer of Jack-up Oil Rigs Second largest aviation maintenance repair and overhaul centre in fuia Tourism l& MICE (Meetingg lncentive Travel, Convention, Exhibitions) Tourism lndustry Regional Education Hub and Health Care Centre CENFTDENTTAL DBtrUMENTsi oF ElENJAMTN Nc TzE WEE Shared by Benjamin Ng Distributed by A. KARIM LAKHANI (0333-TUTOR 4U) (0333- 888 67 48) (www.tutor4u.com.pk) Page:28 On owlcove.sg