StockSelect - April 2024 Issue
26 April 2024
Serial Disrupter in Auto Sector Set to Disrupt Again
In this Report:
After 1980s, Maruti set to disrupt the EV segment until 2030
StockSelect Performance Review - Update on Kotak Bank
March 2024 Quarter Results of select stocks
Top Safe Stocks to Buy
Back in the 1980s, Maruti Suzuki was a disruptor in Indian passenger cars segment. It literally dethroned Premier
and Ambassador, the only two variants available in the Indian market then.
In 2024, there are 16 passenger car makers in the country. Of them 10 sell less than 1 lac units per year, whereas
Maruti sells close to 2 m units a year.
The Indo-Japanese car maker's stronghold is evident in the 41% share that it holds in the passenger car segment.
For long, Maruti Suzuki has had to grapple with an image issue, especially among premium car buyers.
A slew of recent launches, ranging from the Fronx to the Jimny and Grand Vitara, were aimed at winning back
Maruti's lost share in the country's booming SUV market. So, over the past decade, the automaker has tried to
disrupt the passenger car market once again by shifting much of its might to the premium range,
Maruti Suzuki is known largely for its affordable and value-for-money compact cars ranging from the wildly popular
Maruti Suzuki 800 to the Alto and Wagon R among others.
The premium offerings put an end to the company's decades-old perception as a common man's carmaker.
Over the years, Maruti Suzuki has tried to leverage the higher disposable income in the country, with customers
willing to spend on relatively premium segments for additional features, safety, and even design.
The focus on premiumization is especially as Maruti fights both homegrown and global automakers in winning back
market share. Maruti's share in compact cars has hovered around 40% over the past few years. About a decade ago
it was around 50%.
In 2023, Maruti launched its premium offering, Invicto, a multi-purpose vehicle priced between Rs 2.5 m to 2.8 m. So,
for the first time, the on-road price of a Maruti Suzuki car crossed Rs 3 m in the country, making Invicto the most
expensive vehicle from the automaker's stable. Invicto was the eighth car that Maruti Suzuki sold through its Nexa
showrooms, the company's premium sales channel through which it sells several vehicles ranging from Grand Vitara
to Baleno and Jimny.
The management of Maruti Suzuki is targeting to take the sales volume to 4 m units by 2030, with at least the
launch of 10 to 12 new brands.
Electric vehicles will play an important role in this.
The company will start exporting its first 'Made in India' electric cars to Japan and Europe by the end of 2024 and
will then launch for the domestic market by early 2025,
Steady volume growth, premiumization and a conservative approach to the foray in electric vehicles make Maruti
Suzuki an attractive bet for the long term.
Diversified Product Portfolio
Maruti Suzuki has a diversified product portfolio that caters to a wide range of consumer preferences and market
segments, ensuring its resilience in fluctuating market conditions.
The company offers vehicles across six major segments - mini, compact, mid-size, UVs utility vehicles, vans, and
light commercial vehicles. Compact and utility vehicles comprise most of the company's sales.
While the company is a market leader in passenger vehicle segment in India, it is now pivoting to other segments of
the market due to the declining sales of small cars.
The company is addressing the gaps in its product portfolio, especially in the SUV space. In FY23, it introduced three
new models and four product refreshers.
It has recently unveiled two new SUVs, Jimny and Fronx, at the Auto Expo 2023 which will retail in the domestic
market.
If the supply situation of the electronic components improves and remains favourable, the company aims to achieve
market leadership in the SUV segment as well.
Maruti Suzuki also offers vehicles across different technologies. The company has embraced multiple powertrain
technologies rather than depending on a single technology to reduce its carbon footprint.
The company has adopted CNG, flex fuel (Ethanol blending anywhere from 20% to 85% with petrol), hybrid-electric
and electric vehicles.
It offers S-CNG powertrain technology in most of its models. Of the 16 models in its portfolio, the company offers
CNG options in 14 models.
In addition to this, the company has plans to launch 6 electric vehicle models by 2030-31 in India.
The company will be launching its first EV in FY25. A prototype of this EV was showcased in Delhi Motor show held
in January 2023. This is a mid-segment SUV with a range of 550 Kms and battery capacity of 60 KWH.
The EV will be manufactured in Suzuki Motor Gujarat, for which the production facility is being set-up. For EV battery
manufacturing, SMC is setting-up a facility in Gujarat.
Digital Transformation backed by Innovation
Maruti Suzuki is focusing on establishing a strong digital presence to enhance customer engagement, streamline
sales processes, and provide seamless online experiences from research to purchase.
The company has digitised 24 out of 26 customer interaction points while buying a car. The remaining two
interaction points are the test drive and delivery of the vehicle.
To provide round-the-clock facility of interaction to customers, it has deployed various AI-enabled virtual Agents
across channels.
For catering to customer queries on buying, it has rolled out artificial intelligence (AI)-enabled voice bots, in eight
vernacular languages with conversational script, ensuring response to every customer and nearly eliminating
missed calls.
Additionally, dealer websites have been equipped with chatbots.
Customer engagement with its brands in the metaverse have also been made for Arena, NEXA and Auto Expo
through ARENAVerse, NEXAVerse and EXPOVerse, respectively.
Besides this, the company has launched the Maruti Suzuki Smart Finance (MSSF), India's first end-to-end online car
finance platform.
Customers can view, compare, and apply for finance offerings from 23 on board financiers, which include all major
private banks and public sector banks and NBFCS.
This has been with the help of the Maruti Suzuki Innovation initiative which drives collaboration with startups
devised to bring forth cutting-edge technologies and cost-effective solutions to the market.
The company has an Innovation Lab (MAIL) programme, which focuses on the areas of computer vision, AI, speech
analytics, quantum computing, smart parking, AR/VR/XR, Bluetooth mesh, industrial robotics etc.
More than 1,500 startups have been screened over seven cohorts and 42 startups have been engaged for various
innovative projects.
The company has also expanded its innovation efforts to its employees through 'Intrapreneurship Challenge' which
was launched in October 2021.
Robust Financial Profile Supported by High Operating Efficiency
Maruti Suzuki maintains a strong financial risk profile supported by its outstanding operating efficiency. Through
continuous process improvements, extensive localization, and robust relationships with component suppliers, the
company effectively manages costs.
Despite challenges such as rising commodity prices and semiconductor shortages, Maruti Suzuki's operating
margin dipped in recent years before rebounding in fiscal 2023 to 9.4%, up from 6.5% in fiscal 2022.
This improvement was driven by lower raw material costs, improved semiconductor availability, and a favorable
product mix. As of December 2023, the company's operating profit margin stands at an impressive 13%.
With substantial cash generation capabilities and minimal working capital debt, Maruti Suzuki demonstrates a solid
debt protection stance. Its debt-to-equity ratio is a mere 0.02x as of March 2023, with a net worth of 617 billion as of
March 31, 2023, and liquidity of Rs 490 billion as of September 30, 2023.
Projected annual net cash accruals exceeding Rs 110 billion, along with existing cash reserves, will support
significant capital expenditure plans, including the construction of a new plant in Kharkhoda, Haryana.
The Kharkhoda expansion project aims to increase production capacity by 1 million units, progressing through four
phases, with the first phase scheduled for completion in 2025. Each phase is expected to add 250,000 units to the
annual production capacity.
Furthermore, Maruti Suzuki plans to enhance capacity by another 1 million units by 2030-31, with funding coming
from a mix of cash accruals and surpluses.
Regarding the acquisition of Suzuki Motor Gujarat Pvt Ltd (SMG) from parent company Suzuki Motor Corporation
(SMC), no cash outlay is anticipated, further strengthening the company's financial risk profile.
Key Concerns for Maruti Suzuki
Regulatory Risk
In India, policies and regulations on vehicular emissions are constantly evolving. This poses a risk to the company
as the regulations in India on fuel economy, emissions and safety are not only becoming increasingly stringent but
are also being fast-tracked.
Constantly complying to these regulations is expensive and sometimes requires a complete overhaul of the
technology.
Continued technological support from SMC helps the company to comply with these regulatory requirements as per
stipulated timelines.
After the successful adoption of BS-VI in all its models ahead of regulatory timelines, the company completed
adoption of BS-VI Phase 2 in all its models in FY23.
The company also updated all its products to be E20 fuel material compliant, in line with the Government's Ethanol
Blending Programme, which required efforts towards upgrading rubber, plastic parts and ensuring lifecycle durability
with E20 fuel.
The company's state-of-the-art testing facilities in Rohtak help in reducing the product development time and
achieve timely compliance.
Besides, the company is working on multiple powertrain technologies to ensure the carbon reduction technology is
affordable and relevant for the entry-segment vehicles.
Competitive Nature of the Industry
The Indian passenger vehicle (PV) market remains highly competitive, with existing and new players launching new
models regularly, especially in the compact and mid-size UV segment.
The company faces intense competition from peers including Hyundai Motors India, Kia Motors Ltd, and Tata
Motors which have sizeable presence in the fast-growing UV segment market in India.
The company maintains its competitive position in the industry with access to new-age technologies from its parent
company SMC.
The company's experience of selling cars for over four decades also aids in making quick and informed decisions
and gives it its competitive advantage.
Declining Favour for Small Cars
Maruti Suzuki continued to dominate the small cars segment in the first half of the financial year 2024, with 41%
market share, through its models viz Alto and S-Presso.
However, this was partly because most other peers exited the market.
Since 2020, the share of small cars in the overall domestic passenger vehicle market has been reducing. This is
mainly due to increased prices of small cars at the entry level primarily driven by higher inflation and higher
compliance cost in lieu of stringent government regulations.
The cost of small cars is further expected to increase with implementation of latest government regulations.
Combined with increased preference for feature laden UVs, the share of small cars in the overall domestic PV
markets is expected to decline further in the medium term.
To tackle this change in consumer preference, Maruti Suzuki has realigned its production strategy by reducing the
share of small cars in overall domestic volumes.
With the strong technological support from SMC, it has enhanced its offerings in other segments.
In FY23, the company introduced 4 new SUVs, four product refreshers, and a host of new-age advanced technology
features.
While the company is the undisputed market leader in mass-market segment, the above interventions on product
and technologies is expected to help it tide over this challenge.
How Attractive is the Stock Price?
Updates On Maruti Suzuki:
Previous Reports Add: Alert | Portfolio
Although its return ratios are relatively muted, Maruti Suzuki has been a
Market Data
long-term wealth creator over the past two decades. However, cyclical
nature of the business causes the stock to fetch discounted valuations
Price On Reco. Date (Rs)
CMP - BSE / NSE (Rs)
12,687 (BSE)
12,756 /
12,760
from time to time.
Change Since Reco.
0.5%
52-week High/Low (Rs)
13,067 / 8,422
NSE Symbol
MARUTI
BSE Code
532500
No. Of Shares
314.4 m
I have valued the stock of Maruti Suzuki at 4.2 times estimated FY27 book
value based on the 10-year average book value multiple.
The target price for the stock is Rs 15,600 from FY27 perspective.
The best buy price for the stock is Rs 9,300.
Face value
5.0
FY23 DPS
90.0
I recommend considering buying Maruti Suzuki (50% exposure) at Rs
Dividend Yld (FY23 at current
0.7%
10,800 or lower (after 15% correction from current price).
41.8%
Based on the average buy price of Rs 10,040, the stock of Maruti Suzuki is
prices)
Free Float
Market Cap (Rs m)
3,988,793
expected to offer compounded annual gain of 16% over three years.
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Stock Price Performance
Stock Price Performance
(as on 26th Apr 2024)
Maruti Suzuki
Index*
1 Year
52%
24%
2 Years
93%
55%
5 Years
83%
93%
* BSE Sensex
Shareholding (%, Mar-2024)
Category
(%)
Promoters
58.2
FPIs
19.6
Banks and MFs
18.9
Public
3.2
Total
100.0
More On Maruti Suzuki
All Recommendation Reports | All Research Updates | Latest Update | Latest Stock Quote
Action to Take
Recommend buying Maruti Suzuki (50% exposure) at Rs 10,800 or lower
(after 16% correction from current price).
Best buy price Rs 9,300
Maximum buy price Rs 11,500
Target price (from FY27 perspective) Rs 15,600.
Disclaimer: Target price stated above does not promise or guarantee assured or risk-free return to the investors. Recommendation of
research report is not risk-free and is susceptible to market risks and that it cannot generate returns with any level of assurance.
A Gentle Reminder About Asset Allocation
In a scenario of ideal allocation of funds, I recommend holding at least 60% of one's total equity portfolio in bluechip
stocks. Further, we believe that a single bluechip stock should ideally not form more than 5-6% of the total portfolio.
However, please note that this allocation will vary from person to person. For something that works best for you, we
recommend you talk to your investment advisor.
Risk Analysis
In order to further improve our risk analysis of companies we have come out with a revised Equitymaster Risk Matrix
(ERM®). The ERM® is broken down into 4 sub heads namely industry risk, performance risk, management risk and
balance sheet risk. (For details please refer to the ERM® at the end of the report).
Company Specific
Parameters
Points
Riskiness (A)
High-Medium-Low
Industry risk
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Weightage
(B)
Weighted
(A*B)
10
Regulatory risk $
5
5.0%
0.3
Cyclicality risk $s
4
5.0%
0.2
Competition risk $
2
5.0%
0.1
Performance risk
Sales growth
6
5.0%
0.3
Net profit growth
6
5.0%
0.3
Operating margins
4
5.0%
0.2
Net margins
4
5.0%
0.2
RoIC / RoNW
5
10.0%
0.5
Earnings Quality (OCF/PAT)
5
10.0%
0.5
Transparency $
6
10.0%
0.6
Capital allocation $
6
10.0%
0.6
Promoter pledging $
10
10.0%
1.0
Debt to equity ratio
8
10.0%
0.8
Interest coverage ratio
8
5.0%
0.4
Final Rating#
79
Management risk
Balance Sheet risk
*Excluding extraordinary gains
For qualitative factors, denoted by $ sign, lower the risk, higher the rating.
For any risk parameter if the score is below or equal to 4 it indicates high risk.
The risk score of these parameters is highlighted in red color.
6.0
For risk parameters where the score is above 4 riskiness is low.
The risk score of such parameters is highlighted in grey.
Considering the above analysis, the total ranking assigned to the company is 79 out of 140.
On a weighted basis, it stands at 6.0 out of 10.
This makes the stock a medium-risk investment from a long-term perspective.
Financials At A Glance
Consolidated (Rs m)
Net Sales
Sales Growth (%)
Operating Margin (%)
FY22
FY23
FY24E
FY25E
FY26E
FY27E
883,298
1,175,713
1,528,427
1,803,544
2,164,252
2,597,103
25.5%
33.1%
30.0%
18.0%
20.0%
20.0%
6.5%
9.4%
11.0%
10.0%
10.0%
10.0%
38,795
82,110
109,255
117,774
145,306
178,542
4.4%
7.0%
7.1%
6.5%
6.7%
6.9%
Fixed assets
137,472
178,304
213,965
256,758
308,109
369,731
Current assets
167,934
116,156
139,387
167,265
200,718
240,861
Other assets
439,738
548,715
590,212
708,254
849,905
1,019,886
Total Assets
745,144
843,175
943,564
1,132,276
1,358,732
1,630,478
Net worth
553,335
617,913
727,230
845,004
990,310
1,168,851
Secured loans
21,574
24,189
29,027
34,832
41,799
50,158
Current liabilities
170,235
201,073
187,307
252,440
326,623
411,468
Total liabilities
745,144
843,175
943,564
1,132,276
1,358,732
1,630,478
Valuation Table
FY22
FY23
FY24E
FY25E
FY26E
FY27E
Revenue (Rs mn)
883,298
1,175,713
1,528,427
1,803,544
2,164,252
2,597,103
PAT (Rs mn)
38,795
82,110
109,255
117,774
145,306
178,542
EPS (Rs)^
128.43
271.8
347.5
374.6
462.2
567.9
Book value (Rs)^
1,760
1,965
2,313
2,688
3,150
3,718
Price to earnings (x)*
98.8
46.7
36.5
33.9
27.5
22.3
Price to book value (x)*
7.2
6.5
5.5
4.7
4.0
3.4
Net Profit
Net Profit Margin (%)
Balance Sheet (Rs m)
Valuations
*Based on price on 26th April 2024
March 2024 Results of StockSelect Open Positions
Tata Consultancy Services
Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) reported a 3.5% YoY increase in revenue for the March 2024. Growth was led by
India (37.9%) and UK (6.2%) geographies. Among verticals, manufacturing (+9.7%) demonstrated the highest
growth.
The company's revenue grew 2.2% YoY in constant currency terms.
Attrition moderated to 12.5% (down from 13.3% in the previous quarter). The company's workforce stood at 601,546
as on 31 March 2024. The management has announced salary hikes for FY25 in line with last year, with high
performers getting double-digit wage hikes.
With respect to deal wins, TCS reported its highest-ever deal TCV (total contractual value) at US$ 13.2 bn, up 32%
YoY aided by UK-based Aviva Life Insurance. The book-to-bill ratio stood at 1.8x. The company saw significant
demand for cloud, data platforms and Gen AI across industry segments.
Gen AI has started gaining pace with a pipeline of US$ 900m, and US$ 100m cumulative TCV registered.
Overall, the company's net profit rose by 9.3% YoY. Net profit margins rose marginally to 1.1% as expenses fell.
For the financial year 2024, the company registered a 6.9% YoY increase in revenue (13.7% YoY in CC terms).
Segment-wise, the BFSI, which brings in the most revenue for the company, degrew marginally while the media and
communication and tech business fell 2.6% and 2.3%, respectively. The regional markets and others segment rose
the most at 19.8% in the reporting period, followed by energy and utilities, which clocked a growth of 12.6%.
Geography-wise, the growth was led by India and MEA at 20.2% and 14%, respectively.
For the financial year 2024, the total contractual value of orders stood at stood at an all-time high of US$ 42.7 bn.
Deal momentum remained solid during the year. There was no change in tenure of deals. 55-60% of the deals were
cost optimization deals, while the rest were transformation deals.
Due to the increase in revenue, the company's operating profit grew by 8.5% YoY. Operating profit margins increased
only marginally as cost of equipment and licenses and employee expenses rose.
The management expects sub-contracting expenses to reduce even further in the coming quarters as the
immediate demand fulfilment and macro uncertainties incrementally drove the higher costs, which have started
easing off. Additionally, it expects pricing and utilization as the key levers to achieve its aspiration of margin
improvement in the long-term.
The management outlook on the spending environment in IT services remains unchanged, despite some initial
signs of pent-up demand, with a continued pause expected in discretionary deals in the near term.
While the company expects FY25 revenue growth to be better than the low FY24 base, near-term quarterly growth
commentary is still modest due to a focus on projects with high ROI and cost optimization.
The sub-segments within BFSI have started recovering with Insurance, retail banking wealth management and
capital markets have witnessed green shoots, while strong participation of clients in the new-age technologies
The management also indicated of witnessing green shoots in consumer business, airline transportation and major
sub-segment of manufacturing, which are expected to be the new drivers for growth in FY25.
Overall, the company reported a 9% YoY increase in net profit with net profit margins up marginally.
The board of directors of the company proposed a final dividend of Rs 28 per share, taking the total dividend for the
year to Rs 73 per share.
HDFC Bank concluded the financial year 2024 with a 47.3% YoY increase in net revenue for the March 2024 quarter.
This includes transaction gains of Rs 73.4 bn from a stake sake in HDFC Credila Financial Services.
The bank's net interest income (NII) grew 24.5% YoY while core interest margin stood at 3.44% on total assets, and
3.63% on interest-earning assets.
The management has said that historically it has maintained a net interest margin of 4-4.2%, but going forward, the
margins would be maintained at current levels of around 3.5% due to the change in the mix of products following
the HDFC merger.
Other income grew 108% YoY.
Operating expenses grew 33.5% YoY to Rs 179.7 bn. This included staff ex-gratia provisions of Rs 15 bn, Cost to
income ratio stood at 38%.
Asset quality remained broadly stable. The bank's gross non-performing assets (NPA) ratio improved to 1.24% as
against 1.26% led by lower slippages, while net NPA ratio came in at 0.33%, respectively.
The bank has provisions against this. As of March 2023, provisions stood at Rs 135.1 bn with floating provisions of
109 bn. The bank has increased its floating provisions as a countercyclical buffer for making its balance sheet more
resilient and these also qualify as Tier 2 capital within regulatory limits.
Consequently, the net profit of the bank for the quarter rose 39.9% YoY.
For the financial year 2024, HDFC Bank's net revenue grew by 33.6% YoY. HDFC Bank merged with its parent
Housing Development Finance Corporation (HDFC) in July, which means its results are not comparable on a yearover-year basis.
The bank's total balance sheet size grew by 47% for the year and stood at Rs 36.2 trillion. Total deposits increased
by 26.4% with CASA deposits growing by 8.7%. Time deposits grew by 40.4% YoY. CASA deposits comprised 38.2%
of total deposits.
The bank continues to gain market share in deposits with the cost of deposit being stable. Retail deposit
mobilization will be the key focus for the bank going forward with small granular deposit being the key focus area.
Total advances for the year saw an increase of 55.4% over the previous year. Retail loans grew by 108.9%,
commercial and rural banking loans grew by 24.6%. Overseas advances constituted 1.5% of total advances.
The bank's total Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR) as per Basel III guidelines was at 18.8% as of 31 March 2024, as
against a regulatory requirement of 11.7%. Tier 1 CAR was at 16.8% and Common Equity Tier 1 Capital ratio was at
16.4%.
In its latest conference call, the management said that the key focus in the medium term (2 - 3 years) to long term
is to increase profitability by ensuring the sustainability of the franchise and focussing on mobilizing retail
deposits.
HDFC Bank is a completely new organization post the merger. Post merger, the business metric has been stable and
demonstrates resilience of underlying strength of the franchise.
Key to this sustained momentum is to maintain customer satisfaction and service first culture. Thus, the bank will
continue to invest in people and technology.
On a standalone basis, the net profit of the bank for the year was up 37%.
With respect to its subsidiary HDB Financial, the company ended the financial year 2021 with a net profit growth of
25.5%. HDFC Life Insurance saw a 15.4% increase while HDFC Ergo saw a 32% YoY decline in net profit at Rs 4.4 bn.
HDFC AMC and HDFC Securities saw a net profit increase of 37% YoY and 21.7% YoY respectively.
On a consolidated basis, the net profit of HDFC Bank for the year ended March was up 39.3% YoY.
The board of directors recommended a dividend of Rs 19.5 per share.
HDFC Asset Management Company (HDFC AMC)
HDFC AMC reported a 28.6% YoY increase in revenue for the March 2024 quarter as its quarterly assets under
management grew by 36% YoY.
Due to the increase in revenue, the company's operating profit rose 31.4% YoY.
Overall, the company's net profit increased by 43.8% YoY as other income went up. Consequently, net profit margins
rose by 8.3% YoY.
For the financial year 2024, HDFC AMC's revenue rose by 19.3% YoY.
The company's operating profit also followed suit, rising 21.2% YoY. Operating profit margins rose only 1.2% as
employee and other expenses rose. According to management, the employee cost for FY24 increased by 13% YoY
as it included an ESOP cost of Rs 470 m, while for FY25, the ESOPs will reduce to Rs 200 m.
With respect to market share, the company's equity AUM (actively managed) market share increased to 12.8% in
March 2024 from 12.6% in December 2023.
The debt segment also saw an increase of 2% sequentially to 13.4%.
In the latest conference call, the management said that in FY24, HDFCAMC expanded its product offerings and
sectoral and thematic space by launching five new funds. On the passive front, it has enhanced its bouquet by
launching five index funds and two ETFs.
The company has witnessed healthy growth in its unique investor count. It added 3 m new customers during the
year, taking the total number of unique customers to 9.6 m, with 16.6 m live accounts.
The company continues to hold the pole position for its market share in individual investor AUMs.
It is also actively pursuing deeper partnerships with HDFC Bank, despite experiencing a decline in its share of total
equity AUM from 8.1% in FY23 to 7.6% in FY24. On the other hand, the flow share of HDFC Bank surpasses the
book.
Overall, the company reported a 36.7% YoY increase in net profit. Net profit margins increased by 9.6% YoY to 75.3%
as depreciation and finance costs declined.
The board of directors recommended a dividend of Rs 70 per share for the year.
Performance Review
Indian share markets continued to trade on a volatile note this month amid mixed global cues. Geopolitical tensions
in the middle east kept investors on their toes and resulted in weak investor sentiment globally.
However, the impact of the Israel-Iran conflict was temporary as markets resumed their rally following a raft of
positive earnings reports from companies, while shaking of the muted sentiment flowing from Asian and global
peers.
Both the BSE Sensex and the Nifty rose by 2.6% during the month.
With earnings season in full swing, markets will be driven by results for the March 2024 quarter and the financial
year gone by.
Beyond corporate earnings, investor focus will be on the first quarter US gross domestic product (GDP) data due out
later. Recent hotter-than-expected inflation reports have pushed back and reduced expectations for Federal Reserve
interest rate cuts.
Coming to the top gainers, Amara Raja shares rose 43% after the company submitted bids to the government to set
up a battery manufacturing gigafactory in India, along with six other companies such as Reliance Industries and
JSW Neo Energy
The companies have submitted bids to set up manufacturing plants for advanced chemistry cells with a total
capacity of 10GWh. These will be in line with the government's production-linked incentive scheme.
The stock also rallied amid a rally in battery stocks on optimism over further collaborations with foreign vehicle
manufacturers.
Battery stocks rallied after Exide Industries announced a strategic cooperation to produce lithium iron phosphate
cells for Hyundai Motor Co. and Kia Corp.
Global carmakers, including BYD, are doubling down on the burgeoning electric vehicle market in the South Asian
nation as sales cool in China, the US and Europe. This is expected to give local component makers a long term
boost.
Mazagaon Dock Shipbuilders' shares also rose 29% on a healthy outlook. With all the policy initiatives taken by the
Government of India in recent times for encouraging & supporting 'Atmanirbharata', the overall scenario for warship
building looks quite positive in coming years.
Among the top losers was Kotak Mahindra Bank. The bank's shares fell 7% after the Reserve Bank of India barred
the bank from onboarding new customers through its online and mobile banking channels and issuing fresh credit
cards for failing to build IT systems and controls commensurate with its growth leading to serious deficiencies and
non-compliances with regulatory requirements.
Kotak Mahindra Bank said it has taken measures for adoption of new technologies to strengthen its IT systems and
will continue to work with RBI to swiftly resolve balance issues at the earliest.
Our view on the price correction in the stock of Kotak Mahindra Bank
In the case of Kotak Bank, the RBI has penalised the bank for an IT procedural lapse and lack of adherence to
guidelines set by the RBI for its technology infrastructure. This is something that the bank can rectify and
incorporate systems to avoid any further lapses in future.
Even HDFC Bank faced similar technology related issues and was penalised by RBI in 2023. However, since then the
bank has invest in making its tech backbone more robust and complied with all regaulatory requirements. I see
Kotak Bank doing the same.
Both HDFC Bank and Kotak Bank need to invest in their tech infrastructure to avoid technology glitches and build
capacity to accomodate growth.
We do not see the Kotak Bank issue lasting beyond few quarters and see no reason to change our view on the
stock.
Meanwhile, Kotak Mahindra Bank has acquired 100% stake in Sonata Finance for a total consideration of around Rs
5.4 bn. The non-banking finance company and micro finance institution is registered with the RBI.
Besides this, the bank's asset management arm Kotak Alternate Asset Managers also raised Rs 20 bn to invest in
equities. The fund aims to solve the challenge of building and maintaining equity portfolios amid the difficulties
faced by investors due to the market volatilities.
Larsen & Toubro's (L&T) Heavy Engineering vertical has manufactured a mammoth hydrotreating reactor for the
Antonio Dovali Jaime refinery at Salina Cruz in Mexico. At 1,751 MT, it is one of the heaviest reactors in the world.
The mammoth reactor has been dispatched for Mexico from L&T's AM Naik heavy engineering complex at Hazira in
Gujarat.
The reactor uses hydrotreating process, which is a catalytic conversion in petroleum refining, among others, for
removing impurities such as nitrogen and sulphur compounds from hydrocarbon streams.
Meanwhile, the company's defence equipment division, L&T Defence, plans to diversify into making non-military
equipment and infrastructure to better utilise its assets even as the company awaits larger defence contracts.
The division's name has also been changed to L&T Precision Engineering and Systems from 1 April to reflect the
new business strategy.
The new business strategy will involve making non-military advanced equipment at its facilities designed for
defence manufacturing purposes to better sweat these assets.
L&T's defence unit makes guns, armoured systems, missiles, aerospace systems, avionics, sensors, robotics
submarines, underwater platforms, weapon delivery and engineering systems, unmanned systems and radar
systems.
Redington announced a strategic partnership with Zoho Corporation, a leading global technology company.
This alliance aims to bring Zoho's industry-leading cloud solutions for office productivity, team collaboration, and
customer engagement to a broader customer base in India by leveraging Redington's extensive network of partners.
Through this partnership, Redington will leverage its wide distribution network to offer a range of Zoho solutions,
including Zoho Workplace (Unified enterprise collaboration platform), Bigin by Zoho CRM (Pipeline-centric CRM
solution for small and micro businesses), and Zoho ZeptoMail (Transactional email delivery solution) to businesses
of all sizes.
These solutions are tailored to streamline operations, boost productivity, and drive growth across diverse industries.
Laurus Labs has entered into a joint venture (JV) with KRKA, an international generic pharmaceutical company in
Novo Mesto, Slovenia.The company was incorporated on 12 April 2024 by the name of KRKA Pharma.
In this JV Company, KRKA holds 51% and Laurus Labs holds 49% shareholding.
Godrej Agrovet has bought 737,000 shares in its subsidiary Godrej Cattle Genetics for Rs 250 m through the
company's rights issue.
Godrej Cattle Genetics (GCGPL), the wholly-owned subsidiary of Godrej Agrovert, is engaged in agri-business and its
principal business activities includes dairy farming and developing high-breed cattle and cattle embryo.
Hindustan Aeronautics signed a Rs 11.7 bn contract with Cochin Shipyard (CSL).
The contract is for the supply of 6 sets of LM2500 Gas Turbines (GT) and GT Auxiliaries (GTAE), spares, tools for
Indian Navy Next Generation Missile Vessei (NGMV) project.
CAMS has received authorisation from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to operate as an online payment aggregator.
The company's payment business unit CAMSPay currently serves clients which include mutual funds, insurance
companies, banks and NBFCs.
Last month, CAMSPay registered over 1.2 million mandates for UPI Autopay, underlining the company's growing
influence in online Digital Payments Segment.
The license will help the company further fortify its offerings in the payments arena.
Bayer CropScience has tied up with the government's Common Service Center (CSC) and agri-tech firm Gram Unnati
to facilitate last-mile delivery of agri-inputs to smallholder farmers in India.
As part of the memorandum of agreement, smallholder farmers will be able to access timely crop advisory, transfer
of good agricultural practices and access to premium Bayer products through CSC's online portal.
Gram Unnati will facilitate farmer mobilization and ensure market linkages.
In the first phase, the partnership will support farmers in Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu and
Kerala
The CSC scheme, a collaborative e-governance platform, is part of the Digital India program.
Cello World is setting up a glassware manufacturing facility in Rajasthan to boost manufacturing capabilities across
product categories.
Its subsidiary Cello Consumerware will build the site in Falna, District Pali, Rajasthan. It said the glassware furnace
will be operational by the end of the June 2024 quarter.
StockSelect Open positions as on 26th April 2024
Company
50%
Exposure
Reco
date
Price
on
reco.
(Rs)
HDFC Bank
100%
Exposure
Reco
date
Price
on
reco.
(Rs)
Average
Buy
Price
(Rs)
Max
Buy
Price
(Rs)
Target Price
as on
price
(Rs) 25 Apr
2024
(Rs)
Change CAGR No of
(%)** (%) years
since
reco.
Expec-ted
Returns
from
current
price
View
as on
26
Apr
2024
25Feb-16
473
473
1,400
1,804
1,513
220%
17%
7.6
19%
Hold
Bharat
Electronics #
!
27Apr-18
44
44
100
140
237
439%
36%
5.4
-41%
Hold
Amara Raja
Batteries
3-Apr19
638
638
820
1,170
1,104
73%
13.0%
4.5
6%
Buy
HCL
Technologies
28Feb-20
538
538
1,000
1,249
1,503
179%
33%
3.6
-17%
Hold
HDFC AMC
22-Jul20
2,505
2,103
2,500
4,382
3,686
75%
NA
3.2
19%
Hold
Petronet LNG
29Jan-21
237
237
235
312
303
28%
NA
2.7
3%
Hold
Galaxy
Surfactants
26Mar21
2,385
2,385
2,400
3,200
2,599
9%
3%
2.5
23%
Buy
L&T^
15Apr-21
1,375
1,375
1,600
2,875
3,645
165%
49%
2.5
-21%
Hold
24May22
1,702
Company
50%
Exposure
Reco
date
Price
on
reco.
(Rs)
100%
Exposure
Reco
date
Price
on
reco.
(Rs)
Average
Buy
Price
(Rs)
Max
Buy
Price
(Rs)
Expec-ted
Returns
from
current
price
View
as on
26
Apr
2024
India
Pesticides
24Sep-21
312
24Jun-22
237
274
300
434
235
-14%
NA
2.0
85%
Hold
Laurus Labs
28Jan-22
500
3-Feb23
331
416
470
620
423
2%
NA
1.7
47%
Buy
Kotak
Mahindra
Bank
1-Apr22
1,777
1,777
1,900
2,715
1,646
-7%
-5%
1.5
65%
Buy
Pfizer
27May22
4,257
4,257
4,275
5,510
4,156
-2%
NA
1.3
33%
Buy
Dr Lal
PathLabs
24Jun-22
2,033
2,033
2,350
3,200
2,330
15%
11%
1.3
37%
Buy
Indian Energy
Exchange
29-Jul22
160
160
165
235
159
0%
NA
1.2
48%
Buy
Godrej
Agrovet
29-Jul22
509
509
520
700
545
7%
NA
1.2
28%
Buy
Hindustan
Aeronautics ^
!
3-Aug22
1,012
1,012
1,100
2,050
3,995
295%
295%
1.2
-49%
Hold
Tata
Consultancy
Services
25Oct-22
3,162
3,162
3,350
4,280
3,851
22%
22%
0.9
11%
Hold
CAMS
12Dec-22
2,195
2,195
2,600
3,255
3,241
48%
6%
0.8
0%
Hold
TTK Prestige
8-Feb23
762
762
800
980
700
-8%
2%
0.6
40%
Buy
CE Info
Systems
28Apr-23
1,099
1,099
1,100
2,050
1,981
80%
80%
0.4
3%
Hold
Bayer
CropScience
28Apr-23
4,145
4,145
4,200
5,980
5,552
34%
34%
0.4
8%
Hold
Clean
Science and
Technology
30Jun-23
1,400
1,400
1,435
1,845
1,317
-6%
-6%
0.2
40%
Buy
Indraprastha
Gas
25Aug23
440
440
450
650
452
3%
3%
0.1
44%
Buy
Redington
27Oct-23
145
145
160
230
223
54%
54%
0.0
3%
Hold
Affle (India)
24Nov23
1,096
1,096
1,150
1,325
1,064
-3%
-3%
0.0
25%
Hold
Blue Dart
Express
27Nov23
6,942
6,942
7,100
9,400
6,293
-9%
-9%
0.0
49%
Buy
Cello World
25Dec-23
778
778
800
1,000
934
20%
20%
0.0
7%
Buy
Mazagon
Dock
29Feb-24
2,085
2,085
2,100
2,485
2,445
17%
17%
0.0
2%
Buy
Asian Paints
14Mar24
2,892
2,892
3,100
4,275
2,860
-1%
-1%
0.0
49%
Buy
** Calculated by dividing current price by avg. buy price
*** Change in view or target price
Target Price
as on
price
(Rs) 25 Apr
2024
(Rs)
Change CAGR No of
(%)** (%) years
since
reco.
! The balance exposure is 25%
^Recommended via special report
# Recommended buying on 27th April 2018. Recommended increasing exposure by 50% on 23rd April 2020.
* Recommended buying on 28th December 2018. Recommended increasing exposure by 50% on 23rd April 2020.
##Please note: Subscribers must note that stocks with the highest expected returns may not necessarily be fundamentally the safest ones to invest your money.
These stocks also need to be evaluated on various qualitative parameters like management quality, competitive advantage and stability in earnings and profit
margins. We strongly recommend subscribers to go through our latest updates on all stocks before making any investment decisions. ^ Please Note: Average Buy
Price is the Weighted average buy price for the stock based on exposure limits.
The Top Stocks to Consider Buying
As you are aware, the list of top stocks allows subscribers to choose a handful of Best buys from amongst our buy
recommendation. The 'must have' criteria for stocks to be eligible in the list of best buys are a high rating on the
ERM®. The additional level of filter will be their return potential over a period of three years. But as you understand,
the list will not be static but will evolve over time.
As you can see in the performance review, there are several other stocks on which we have recommended buy due
to attractive valuations. However, most do not make it to the list of top 5 as their ERM® score do not meet the
stringent criteria for featuring in the list. As we had told you earlier, while we will aim to have 5 stocks in this list
every month, there could be exceptions once in a while.
Please do pay attention to our latest views on the stocks mentioned in this list every month. According to us, in a
scenario of ideal allocation of funds, bluechip stocks could be considered to comprise at least 60% of one's total
equity portfolio. Further, we believe that a single bluechip stock should ideally not form more than 5-6% of the total
portfolio. However, please note that this allocation will vary from person to person. For something that works best
for you, we recommend you talk to your investment advisor.
With several stocks in open position moving up sharply and the ERM® ratings of the others not qualifying for the Top
Stocks to Buy list, our list this month comprises of nine stocks. This effectively means that you should be extremely
careful about deploying additional capital to stocks at current market valuations.
Here is our list of Top Stocks to Consider Buying
Kotak Mahindra Bank^
Pfizer^
Indian Energy Exchange^
TTK Prestige^
Clean Science and Technology^
Blue Dart Express^
Cello World^
Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders^
Asian Paints^
^Partial exposure: Buy 50% of total buy at recommended price.
Warm regards,
Tanushree Banerjee
Editor, StockSelect
Equitymaster Agora Research Private Limited (Research Analyst)
Note: Target price stated above does not promise or guarantee assured or risk free return to the investors.
Recommendation of research report is not risk-free and is susceptible to market risks and that it cannot generate
returns with any level of assurance.
Tanushree Banerjee (Research Analyst), is the editor of Stock Select and Forever
Stocks. Tanushree started her career at Equitymaster covering the banking and
financial sector stocks and scrutinising RBI policies. Over the last decade, she
developed Equitymaster's research processes that helped us pick out various
multibaggers, across all sectors. A firm believer of "safety first" when it comes to
investing, Tanushree closely follows the investing philosophies of Warren Buffett,
Jeremy Grantham, and Joel Greenblatt.
Where StockSelect Fits In...
Stock markets tend to be very volatile. And putting too much money in a single stock
can be very risky. In our view, large cap/ blue-chip stocks are the safest of the lot.
Because of their large size, they may not grow as fast as small caps or mid caps. But
they are relatively more stable and resilient to negative macroeconomic developments.
This keeps them in good stead over the long term and makes them reliable wealth
creators.
According to us, large cap/ blue chip stocks should comprise at least 60% of one's
total equity portfolio. However, a single large cap/ blue-chip should not form more
than 5-6% of the total portfolio.. This allocation will of course vary from person to person. For something that works best for you, we
recommend you talk to your investment advisor.
Frequently Asked Questions
These are some of the Most Frequently Asked Questions on StockSelect. Please view the others here.
If the stock price runs up post the recommendation and trades at levels higher than the
buy price, should one still buy the stock?
Please note that the bluechip stocks typically recommended in StockSelect, in general, have large market
capitalization and sufficient liquidity. As such, a spurt in the stock price, if any, post our recommendation, would be
marginal. If the stock price moves up sharply, we recommend subscribers to consider waiting till the initial volatility
settles down and the stock falls back in the 'buy' zone.
Can there be an overlap or contrary views on the stocks recommended under this service
and that of the other Equitymaster services?
Each of our product teams, be it StockSelect, Hidden Treasure, Smart Money Secrets or The India Letter, has its own
unique screen and checklist for selecting and recommending stocks. In rare cases, where there is a compelling
proposition to recommend a stock in more than one service simultaneously, there could be an overlap in stocks.
There could be contrary views on the same stock in different services, only in rare cases, where the investing tenure
or the investing philosophy of the two products are very different.
What does 'Closed Position' mean?
StockSelect recommendations are meant to meet the target prices within a time frame of three years. So when the
stock meets target price or completes the time frame we 'close the recommendation'. However, since we keep
reviewing our assumptions and estimates for the stock even in the interim, the view or target price on the stock may
warrant a change. This could be a revision upwards or downwards. In such cases, if the previous recommendation
on the stock is no longer valid we close that recommendation. So we essentially close recommendations either by
giving a Sell view or putting out a changed view.
How to read the returns calculations?
For positions that are not closed returns are calculated from date of recommendation till date.
For closed positions, there can be two types of calculations.
Assuming we initially gave a Buy on a stock with no subsequent recommendations on the same stock. In
that case the calculation is fairly simple. The returns shown in this case is simply the change in stock
price from the date of recommendation till the date on which the position was closed.
Now let us take a case where we initiated with a Buy (1st position) and subsequently came with another
recommendation (2nd position) on the same stock. Let us assume that the subsequent recommendation
was also a buy. In such cases, the return calculation depends on whether the 1st position is closed or not.
If the first position is closed before we reiterate buy then the return on the first position will be calculated
as shown previously. However, if 1st position was not closed before we reiterated buy, then the return
calculation is from the earlier buy recommendation till the date on which the position was closed.
Basically where we have reiterated view on a stock we try to show cumulative returns. The same logic
applies with Hold recommendations as well.
Now let us look at Sell recommendations. There can be two situations here.
If there is no recommendation subsequent to the Sell recommendation we show maximum drop in stock
price from date of sell recommendation till date.
If the Sell recommendation is followed up by another recommendation, we show maximum drop in stock
price between the two recommendation dates.
Basically we have tried to cover all hypothetical instances in this note that may help you better understand the return
calculations and closed positions of our recommendations. If you have any query pertaining to it please do write in
to us for further clarifications.
Definitions of Terms Used
Buy recommendation: This means that the subscribers could consider buying the concerned stock at
current market price keeping in mind the tenure and objective of the recommendation service.
Hold recommendation: This means that the subscribers could consider holding on to the shares of the
company until further update and not buy more of the stock at current market price.
Buy at lower price: This means that the subscribers should wait for some correction in the market price
so that the stock can be bought at more attractive valuations keeping in mind the tenure and the objective
of the service.
Sell recommendation: This means that the subscribers could consider selling the stock at current
market price keeping in mind the objective of the recommendation service.
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INTRODUCTION:
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opportunities across asset classes.
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GENERAL TERMS AND CONDITIONS FOR RESEARCH REPORT:
For the terms and conditions for research reports click here.
DETAILS OF ASSOCIATES:
Details of Associates are available here.
DISCLOSURE WITH REGARDS TO OWNERSHIP AND MATERIAL CONFLICTS OF INTEREST:
a. 'Subject company' is a company on which a buy/sell/hold view or target price is given/changed in this Research Report.
b. Neither Equitymaster, its Research Analyst or his/her relative have any financial interest in the subject company.
c. Except Maruti Suzuki, equitymaster's associates has no financial interest in any other subject Company forming a part of this report.
d. Neither Equitymaster, it's Associates, Research Analyst or his/her relative have actual/beneficial ownership of one percent or more securities of the subject company
at the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of the research report.
e. Neither Equitymaster, it's Associates, Research Analyst or his/her relative have any other material conflict of interest at the time of publication of the research report.
f. Equitymaster's technical or other services have given a 'Buy at lower' view on Maruti Suzuki.
DISCLOSURE WITH REGARDS TO RECEIPT OF COMPENSATION:
a. Neither Equitymaster nor its Associates have received any compensation from the subject company in the past twelve months.
b. Neither Equitymaster nor its Associates have managed or co-managed public offering of securities for the subject company in the past twelve months.
c. Neither Equitymaster nor its Associates have received any compensation for investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services from the subject
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services from the subject company in the past twelve months.
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report.
GENERAL DISCLOSURES:
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b. Equitymaster or the Research Analyst has not been engaged in market making activity for the subject company.
Definitions of Terms Used:
a. Buy recommendation: This means that the subscriber could consider buying the concerned stock at current market price keeping in mind the tenure and objective of
the recommendation service.
b. Hold recommendation: This means that the subscriber could consider holding on to the shares of the company until further update and not buy more of the stock at
current market price.
c. Buy at lower price: This means that the subscriber should wait for some correction in the market price so that the stock can be bought at more attractive valuations
keeping in mind the tenure and the objective of the service.
d. Sell recommendation: This means that the subscriber could consider selling the stock at current market price keeping in mind the objective of the recommendation
service.
Other Disclosures
This Research Report is sent to you pursuant to your subscribing to the services of Equitymaster Agora Research Private Limited (Company). This recommendation is
general in nature and does not create any account based relationship between you and the Company and pursuant to this recommendation the Company is not obligated
to open any account or deal or maintain your securities or funds.
Prior to receiving this Research Report, you have agreed that your use of Equitymaster Services have been conducted at all times in compliance with the applicable antimoney laundering laws or any other similar statute or legislations or applicable laws or notifications, direction issued by any governmental or statutory authority from
time to time.
Feedback:
If you have any feedback or query or wish to report a matter, please do not hesitate to write to us.
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