NATURAL GAS AND LIQUEFIED NATURAL GAS PROF. CHIJIOKE NWAOZUZU DSc, PhD, MBA, MBA in Oil & Gas, BSc DIRECTOR EMERALD ENERGY INSTITUTE UNIVERSITY OF PORT HARCOURT 1 PART 1 OVERVIEW OF NATURAL GAS 2 WHAT IS NATURAL GAS? • Gas obtained from natural underground reservoir, and trapped in sedimentary rocks. • Contains mostly methane (CH4), and some ethane, propane, butane, pentanes. • Usually contains some impurities such as H2S and CO2 • As one of the primary energy sources from most oil producing countries 3 HISTORY OF NATURAL GAS First observed thousands of years ago Chinese burned gas about 2,500 years ago to make salt 1816: First lamps in Baltimore using gas 1821: First gas well drilled in the US– only 27 feet deep Currently produced in 32 Countries 4 CLASSIFICATIONS OF NATURAL GAS BASED ON ITS SOURCE 1. Conventional natural gas is usually obtained from deep reservoir 2. Natural gas usually co-exist with crude oil (Associated gas, AG) 3. Natural gas in reservoirs that contain little or no crude oil (Non-associated gas, NAG) 4. Associated gas is produced with the oil and separated at the casing head or wellhead 5 5. Non-associated gas is sometimes referred to as dry gas NATURAL GAS EXTRACTION & COMPONENTS Natural gas based on its source 6 COMPONENTS OF NATURAL GAS 7 NATURAL GAS COMPOSITIONS ACROSS JURISDICTIONS 8 ENERGY CONTENT OF NATURAL GAS VS OTHER COMMERCIAL ENERGY PRODUCTS http://www.naturalgas.com.au/about/references.htm 9 NATURAL GAS COMPOSITION & SEPARATION Natural gas compositions 10 NATURAL GAS PRODUCT SPECIFICATION 1. The composition of natural gas varies considerably from location to location 2. Natural gas product specification includes: - Wobbe number, - heating value, - water, - oxygen, - sulfur content. The first two criteria relate to combustion characteristics. The latter three provide protection from pipeline plugging and corrosion 11 NATURAL GAS PROPERTIES Colorless, odorless, tasteless, shapeless, and lighter than air 12 SPECIFICATIONS FOR PIPELINE QUALITY NATURAL GAS 13 NATURAL GAS COMBUSTION MEASURES 1. Pipeline gas is normally bought and sold (custody transfer) on the basis of its heating value, ex: MMBtu/Cuft (cubic feet). MMBTU stands for one million British Thermal Units (BTU). A BTU is a measure of the energy content in fuel, and is used in the power, steam generation, heating and air conditioning industries. One BTU is equivalent to 1.06 Joules. 2. Heating Value: the amount of heat released during the combustion of a specified volume of fuel 3. The heating value of a fuel involves two arbitrary but conventional standard states for the water formed 14 during the reaction: NATURAL GAS COMBUSTION XTERISTICS CONTD All the water formed is a liquid (Gross Heating Value, frequently called Higher Heating Value [HHV]) – including latent heat of vaporization All the water formed is a gas (Net Heating Value, frequently called Lower Heating Value [LHV]) The heating value is normally calculated at 60°F and 1 atm (15.6°C and 1.01 atm), standard conditions for the gas industry 15 NATURAL GAS COMBUSTION MEASURES CONTD Wobbe Number defined as the gross heating value (Btu/scf) of the gas divided by the square root of the specific gravity (the ratio of the density of the gas divided by the density of air) 16 NATURAL GAS: EXPLORATION 17 NATURAL GAS: EXPLORATION CONTD Petroleum System Elements Gas Cap Oil Entrapment Water Seal Rock Reservoir Rock Migration 120° F Generation 350° F 18 24803 Reprint permitted by the American Association of Petroleum Geologists NATURAL GAS: EXPLORATION CONTD Reprint permitted by the American Association of Petroleum Geologists 19 NATURAL GAS: EXPLORATION CONTD Christmas Tree Pipeline to Flow Process and Storage Surface Casing Cement Intermediate Casing Cement Production Casing Tubing Completion Fluid Packer Well Fluids Cement Oil or Gas Zone Perforations 20 NATURAL GAS PROCESSING -FLOW DIAGRAM 21 NATURAL GAS PROCESSING- MADE EASY 22 NATURAL GAS TRANSPORTATION Pipeline Transmission System 23 NATURAL GAS TRANSPORTATION Floating LNG ConocoPhillips_Cascade_LNG_Project1.jpg 24 NATURAL GAS TRANSPORTATION- LNG VESSEL 25 USES OF NATURAL GAS Heating for homes and businesses Generation of electricity Manufacturing Industrial 49% Ingredient in fertilizer, glue, paint, and detergent Transportation Transport. 2% Utilities 13% Commercial 14% Residential 22% 26 NATURAL GAS ISSUES PRICE VOLATILITY 27 CAUSES OF PRICE VOLATILITY Inherent variation in demand Supply interruptions Weather spikes The in winter, small spike in summer fluctuations themselves!! Contracts vs. spot pricing 28 PRICE VOLATILITY NATURAL GAS SUPPLIES 29 IMPLICATIONS OF PRICE VOLATILITY Increased natural gas costs are passed along to consumers in… Higher home heating bills Higher electric bills Higher cost of goods that use natural gas in production In general, higher natural gas costs cause significant inflationary pressure 30 ONE POTENTIAL SOLUTION LIQUID NATURAL GAS (LNG) Liquid Natural Gas Condenses Takes up 1/600th the volume of natural gas Much Purer at -260 Of cheaper to transport than natural gas Liquefaction removes S, CO2, H2O, SO2 31 GLOBAL NATURAL GAS RESERVES One of the world’s most abundant fossil fuels. Only 15% of world’s natural gas endowments used up. Since 1970s, world gas reserves have increased 6% a year. Since 1970s, world gas consumption increased only 3.0% a year. Share of natural gas in world energy mix has risen from 10% in 1965 to about 25% in 2010. 32 GLOBAL NATURAL GAS RESERVES Natural gas reserves 33 GLOBAL NATURAL GAS RESERVES A significant proportion of earlier world’s potential supplies of natural gas are not located near big markets. 34% 40% 6% 10% 10% - Middle East Former USSR North America (USA, Canada, Mexico) Africa (Nigeria, Libya, Egypt) Rest of the World (South America, etc) 34 GLOBAL NATURAL GAS PRODUCTION Natural gas production http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail 35 NATURAL GAS PRODUCING & CONSUMING COUNTRIES 36 GLOBAL HISTORICAL AND PROJECTED NG PRODUCTION (WORLD ENERGY ANNUAL REPORT 2018-2050) 37 GAS FLARING OR WASTE 10% of world’s production (3.5 trillion cubic feet per year) is flared. This represents a. loss in energy revenue of $5 – $9 billion per annum. Flaring also contributes substantially to the world’s carbon emissions. However, the level of flaring has been decreasing until recently. For Example – Middle East Gas Flaring Stats 1976 - 71% of natural gas was flared 1995 - 23% 2010 - 15% 38 RECENT GLOBAL DEVELOPMENTS IN GAS FLARING The amount of natural gas flared at oil production sites worldwide has been on the increase in the last 6 years, thereby reversing a previous reduction trend. According to the Global Gas Flaring Reduction Partnership (GGFR), the latest data show that an estimated 141 billion cubic meters (bcm) of gas was flared in 2013, 145 bcm in 2014, 147bcm in 2015, and 149 bcm in 2016. Russia remains the world’s largest flaring country, igniting about 21 bcm per annum, followed by Iraq (16 bcm), Iran (12 bcm), US (12 bcm), and Venezuela (9 bcm).. 39 GLOBAL DEVELOPMENTS IN GAS FLARING Nigeria has made significant progress among gas flaring nations, by reducing ignitions by 18% since 2013 to 8 bcm in 2015. From being the second largest gas flaring jurisdiction, Nigeria is now the sixth. The worldwide initiative to end routine gas flaring at oil production sites has been endorsed by 62 oil companies, governments, and development institutions, according to GGFR. The global target is to end routine flaring at oil fields by 2030. Governments and oil companies that have endorsed the initiative represent about 53% of global gas flaring. 40 WHY THE WASTE Transportation difficulties Inefficient domestic markets Poor gas infrastructure Poor funding for gas projects Gas is usually produced with oil, and the latter is easily and more cheaply transported than gas. Many countries that produce and use large quantities of oil lack a ready market for gas or the means to transport it internationally. 41 WHY THE WASTE Developing a domestic market for natural gas requires a substantial demand for gas for space heating, electricity generation, industrial power, fertilizer manufacture, etc, and many gas- producing nations have relatively small needs in these areas. Many gas- producing nations lack the infrastructure or the capital to build the infrastructure to use natural gas domestically or transport it abroad. 42 WHY THE WASTE Transportation of natural gas is a problem. Natural gas must be transported in its gaseous form by pipeline or in a liquefied form by tanker. a) It costs 4 - 5 times as much to transport gas over land by pipeline compared to the cost of transporting oil. via pipelines b) Transporting natural gas by tanker (in liquid form) may cost 30 times as much as shipping oil. World markets prefer liquefied natural gas forms, which have much higher energy content on a per unit volume basis and are easier to transport than natural gas in gaseous form. 43 NATURAL GAS IN ITS GOLDEN AGE Previous Impetus (1973 Israel/Middle East War) Energy disruption of the 1970s taught both producers and consumers the importance of alternative fuels. Energy price increases that accompanied those disruptions made investments both in natural gas conservation and distribution systems more possible and attractive. As a result, large-scale flaring rapidly declined. 44 NATURAL GAS IN ITS GOLDEN AGE Outcomes Projects) (Gas Re-injection & Investments in Gas Producers are now either voluntarily or by law reinjecting gas that they do not sell or use, which maintains the pressure drive of oil reservoirs and increases the ultimate production of both oil and natural gas. Some producing countries (e.g. Saudi Arabia) have invested in large gas plants, that use natural gas as feedstock and also as fuel , in near-by gas fields. 45 NATURAL GAS IN ITS GOLDEN AGE Why such downstream investments? a) Such investments are based on the theory that chemicals, plastics, fibers, fertilizers or even steel are more easily transportable and exportable than gas. a) In 1996, Saudi Arabia exported $5.5 billion worth of such products! 46 CURRENT DRIVERS OF USAGE OF NATURAL GAS • Environmental Concerns (Ozone Layer Climate Change, and Global Warming) Depletion, Kyoto Protocol The need to transit to low carbon products- nuclear, renewables, natural gas a) In December 1997, in Kyoto (Japan), representatives of most nations of the world agreed that the world’s industrialized nations should reduce emissions of the major “greenhouse” gases (carbondioxide, nitrogen oxide, and methane) by 2012 to levels between 6 – 8% below the 1990 levels. 47 POLLUTION COMPARISON AMONG FUELS 48 CURRENT DRIVERS OF USAGE OF NATURAL GAS b) No restrictions were placed on developing nations. c) 7% reduction was mandated for the United States which translated to a reduction of about 33% from their current actual levels . d) As a result, pressure is growing to move from “dirty” energy sources, such as coal to “cleaner” fuels, such as natural gas. e) For instance, substituting natural gas for coal could cut carbon dioxide emission by 58% and nitrous oxide emissions by 81%. 49 CURRENT DRIVERS CONT’D Availability of Shale Gas Ample availability of shale gas (unconventional natural gas found in the US, China, etc) actually lower average gas prices. 50 SHALE GAS Shales are fine- grained organic rich sedimentary rocks that can be rich sources of petroleum and gas. Shale gas refers to natural gas that is trapped within shale formations. Shale is one of the most common sedimentary rocks in the world and primarily composed of clay and fragments of other minerals such as quarts. 51 RECOVERABLE SHALE GAS BY COUNTRY A map of 48 shale basins in 38 countries, based on US Energy Information Administration data, 2011. 52 ESTIMATED RECOVERABLE RESERVES (TCF) Country World China Argentina Algeria United States Canada Mexico Australia South Africa Russia India * Rest of the World Reserves 7,299 1,115 802 707 Year 2013 2013 2013 2013 665 2013 573 545 437 390 285 245 1,535 2013 2013 2013 2013 2013 2013 2013 53 SHALE GAS CONT’D Shale gas is tightly locked in very small spaces within the reservoir rock requiring advanced technology for extraction, called the FRACKING TECHNOLOGY. Different types of sedimentary rocks contain natural gas deposits, e.g. sandstone, limestone or shale. 54 CURRENT DRIVERS CONTD China’s Ambitious Gas Policy Implementation by China of an ambitious policy for gas production and use. China has 21.8 Tcm technically recoverable shale gas resources. In 2016, overall shale gas production in China was around 7.9 bcm, which increased to 10 bcm in 2017, and 30 bcm in 2020. China holds 184 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) of proven gas reserves as at 2017, ranking 10th in the wolrd. This accounts for about 3% of the world’s total natural gas reserves of 6,923Tcf. 55 CHINA NATURAL GAS Million Cubic Ft (MMcf) Global Rank 163,959,000 10th in the world Gas Production 4,559,626 8th in the world Gas Consumption 6,738,152 3rd in the world Yearly Deficit -2,178,526 Gas Imports 2,202,597 Gas Exports 116,331 Net Imports 2,086,265 Gas Reserves 56 CURRENT DRIVERS CONTD Lower Growth of Nuclear Power Particularly in the wake of the nuclear accident at Fukushima, Japan, and the likelihood of a reduced role for nuclear power in some countries, e.g. some Arab countries. 57 CURRENT DRIVERS CONT’D Use of Natural Gas in Road Transport, NGVs, CNGs More use of natural gas in road transport (LNG vehicles or NGV, natural gas vehicles). Popular in most Asian and South American countries. NNPC made a start, and the effort fizzled out. 58 MAJOR NATURAL GAS DEVELOPMENT INITIATIVES IN NIGERIA 1. NLNG project (Bonny) - Joint Venture between NNPC/Shell/Agip/Total. 2. Brass LNG ($3.5bn) 3. OKLNG (US$.7bn) 59 GAS DEVELOPMENT INITIATIVES IN NIGERIA CONT’D Major Natural Gas Development initiatives 4. West African Gas pipeline (natural gas from Nigeria to Ghana, Togo, Benin Republic, Ivory Coast). 5. NPDC – subsidiary of NNPC is being positioned as a dominant gas supplier to the domestic market. 6. Oredo Integrated Gas Handling Facility – 65m scf/d 60 GAS DEVELOPMENT INITIATIVES IN NIGERIA CONT’D Major Natural Gas Development initiatives 7. 120km East –West Gas pipeline (contract awarded) to link huge gas reserves in the East- Niger Delta and the Western Region. 8. Calabar – Ajaokuta – Abuja – Kano Gas Pipeline (1000km) infrastructure expansion to open gas access to the Eastern and Northern parts of the country. 61 KEY TO EXTENSIVE INTERNATIONAL TRADE IN NATURAL GAS Integrated pipeline grid (substantial). LNG tanker fleets (where navigable water access is available). Integrated Gas Pipeline Facilities These do not presently exist in much of the world. Currently, these are being built rapidly around the world. 62 INTERNATIONAL TRADE IN NATURAL GAS CONT’D In 1997, 54% of world’s oil production was exported to world markets, while only 19% of the world’s natural gas production was exported across any border. In 1991, international gas trade was focused in North America, Europe, and former Soviet Union (FSU). Also, a list of potential new transportation projects, using natural gas, is rapidly growing. 63 PART 2 NATURAL GAS ECONOMICS 64 FACTORS DRIVING NATURAL GAS ECONOMICS Two factors drive natural gas economics: gas transportation costs and economies of scale. Transportation Costs The economics of natural gas rapidly differs from that of crude oil in terms of the high cost and relative inflexibility of the transport systems required to get gas to market. High transportation costs and inflexible delivery systems have tended to isolate regional gas markets from one another making it difficult to create a World Gas Market. 65 GAS ECONOMICS: INTERNATIONAL GAS MARKETS THE THREE GRIDS SEVEN ISOLATED REGIONAL MARKETS North American free Trade Agreement (NAFTA Zone) Brazil/Central South America Bolivia, Peru, Argentina Western Europe The South American (Southern Cone) Chile, Uruguay Former Soviet Union/Central Europe The Eastern Mediterranean The Indian subcontinent South-East Asia North – East Asia The Coastal Trio (Japan, S.Korea, Taiwan) 66 REGIONAL GAS MARKETS Regional market Main Anchors) Supply sources Brazil/Central South America Brazil Bolivia, Peru, Argentina South America (Southern Chile Cone) Venezuela, Argentina Eastern Mediterranean Turkey, Greece, Israel LNG, Russia, Egypt, Turkmen Indian Subcontinent India, Pakistan LNG, Qatar, Iran, Turkmenistan South-East, Asia Thailand, Indonesia Myanmar, Indonesia North –East Asia China LNG, Siberia, Central Asia The Coastal Trio Japan/Korea/Taiwan LNG, Siberia 67 NATURAL GAS ECONOMICS CONT’D Economies of Scale Not only are gas transportation cost much higher than those for oil, also gas transportation costs exhibit strong economies of scale. The higher the volumes, the lower the unit cost of delivery. In international trade of gas, large gas discoveries and large markets enjoy substantial economic advantages over small gas discoveries and small markets. 68 NATURAL GAS ECONOMICS CONT’D Therefore, the drivers of natural gas economics are principally high cost of gas transport systems and scale requirements. As a result, natural gas markets have historically developed first in countries with substantial natural gas reserves of their own, Then, later in ‘gas – poor’ countries with a large enough energy demand to justify the importation of gas through large international pipeline grid system or LNG. 69 GAS PIPELINE CONSTRUCTION COSTS U.S $800,000 per 1km – US $2m per 1km (for large diameter projects over difficult terrain). Examples The 24 inch Yucantan Peninsular gas pipeline, completed in 1999 and running 432 miles form the Mexican State of Tobasco to power plants in the Yucantan Peninsula cost $266 million. 70 GAS PIPELINE COSTS CONT’D The 460km line completed in 1996, from La Mora in Argentina to Santiago in Chile cost US $360 million. The 3,700 km pipeline from Bolivia to Soa Paulo in Brazil cost US $1.8 billion. 71 HUGE COSTS ASSOCIATED WITH GAS PROJECTS A typical LNG project may require more than US $10bn of investment and lead time of 6-10 years from conception to completion. LNG Tanker ships cost about US $ 200m. Pipeline grids must be developed internally, internationally (within nations), and between nations. Grids should be linked to target markets (electricity generators and industrial users, particularly those that use natural gas as a feedstock). 72 FINANCING GAS PROJECTS: MODEL 1. Project Finance Revenues generated by a new distribution system are sufficient to pay off its financing costs. 2. Incremental Investment 3. Whereby cash flow from the existing system can be used to finance a new construction. Early Payback Where political and economic conditions permit, service delivery could commence with high tariffs that gradually decrease over time. 73 FINANCING GAS PROJECTS: MODELS CONT’D 4. Anchor-Store In this case, gas supply begins with a few large industrial or electric generation users, which potentially create the driver for network development 74 BENEFITS TO GOVERNMENTS FROM NATURAL GAS DEVELOPMENT Governments derive revenue from the sale of natural gas to domestic petrochemical firms. For governments’ holding large shares of the petrochemical plants, it also derives revenue from valueadded associated with the export of the petrochemicals. 75 BENEFITS TO GOVERNMENT FROM NATURAL GAS DEVELOPMENT CONT’D Governments also benefit from increases in employment and multiplier effects on their countries’ economies that come from increases in natural gas development. A major project such as liquefaction or petrochemical plant mobilizes local labor for construction work and can cause local business to provide services to the new projects (restaurants, material suppliers, engineering constructions.) 76 WHY HAVE INTERNATIONAL OIL COMPANIES NOT PLACED A HIGHER PRIORITY UPON INVESTMENT IN GAS INFRASTRUCTURE Gas infrastructure development generally costs substantially more than oil development (20 – 30 times as much) and takes much longer. Gas infrastructure investments leave international investors more exposed to the risk of expropriation or politically – inspired violence. 77 WHY HAVE INTERNATIONAL OIL COMPANIES NOT PLACED A HIGHER PRIORITY UPON INVESTMENT IN GAS INFRASTRUCTURE 3. Gas is sold in a local market, rather than in international market (except LNG). Thus, investments in gas infrastructure are likely to be regulated by National Governments as public utilities. Gas infrastructure investments would result in a relatively low rate of return as it would be sold locally, and international investor may not generate enough profits in local currencies. 78 POWER GENERATION AS A MAJOR DRIVER OF GAS USAGE Environmental concerns have made the use of natural gas attractive, and is recognized as a major driver. However, surging electricity demand is now an associated major factor driving increased consumption of natural gas. Globally, natural gas use for electric power generation is expected to increase more than 25% faster than fuel use of all types over the next 20 years. 79 GAS TO POWER GENERATION CONT’D Converting gas to electricity outside the end-use region also eases air pollution problems in urban areas. Even in the US, the most mature energy market, the use of natural gas to generate electricity is expected to increase by 21/2 times between 1999 and 2020. 80 SYNERGIES BETWEEN NATURAL GAS DEVELOPMENT AND POWER GENERATION SECTOR International gas marketing activities, outside of the US and Europe, have experienced dramatic growth in relation to supplying natural gas for power generation. The increase in international gas marketing opportunities has been brought about by synergies between gas utilization and electricity generation. Such synergies include: Environmental benefits of ‘clean burning’ gas over other fossil fuel competitors. 81 SYNERGIES BETWEEN NATURAL GAS DEVELOPMENT AND POWER GENERATION CONT’D More favorable economics of a gas-fired power station when compared to other fossil fuel and nuclear options. Recent technological breakthroughs in combined-cycle technology make gas-fired power generation equipments significantly more efficient than its fossil fuel competitors. Natural gas can displace imported fuel oil for industrial energy consumption and also increase available crude oil for export. 82 PART 3 GAS SALES CONTRACT 83 GAS SALES CONTRACT The absence of a truly international market for gas means that pricing for gas deliveries is carried out on an ad- hoc basis. There is no global benchmark price for gas. Therefore, the disadvantages and significant costs associated with transportation of gas from field to market dictates the need for gas to be sold on the basis of long-term sales contracts. 84 GAS SALES CONTRACT CONT’D Thus, gas deliveries and ‘take-or-pay schedules are designed to ensure constant utilization of the highpriced gas production and transportation facilities. Pricing uncertainties are continually resolved by adjusting prices in line with market forces (supply /demand). When gas marketing efforts reach the contracting stages, the first issue to resolve is the selection of the appropriate contractual structure for the intended gas sale. 85 TRADITIONAL CONTRACTUAL FRAMEWORK FOR GAS SALES 1. A Gas Sales Contract – whereby the gas producer and gas purchaser enter into a bulk-purchase contract. 2. The gas purchaser may be: the end- user of the gas; may resell the gas to another intermediate purchaser; or may resell to the ultimate gas- users. 3 The gas producer is obligated to the purchaser to deliver gas. 86 TRADITIONAL CONTRACTUAL FRAMEWORK FOR GAS SALES 4. The gas purchaser is obligated to the producer to pay for the gas. 5 In the case of gas contracts with ‘take-or-pay provisions’, gas must be paid for, though not currently taken. 87 ALTERNATIVE GAS SALES CONTRACTUAL STRUCTURES The traditional contractual structure may be inappropriate for a particular gas marketing situation or in a particular Host Country. Therefore, a variety of alternative contractual structures have be fashioned to address peculiar situations, with due regard to applicable legal or regulatory provisions within a given Host Country. 88 THE INDONESIA EXAMPLE Domestic natural gas sales in Indonesia were modeled on the contractual framework of their existing LNG transactions. Producer enters into a Supply Agreement with the State Oil Company (PERTAMINA) to supply and deliver gas to PERTAMINA at a specified point (gas- gathering location). 89 THE INDONESIA EXAMPLE CONT’D Purchaser (PERTAMINA), simultaneously, enters into a Sales Contract with a third-party gas purchaser, whose off-take point is the gas- gathering location. Under this structure, the gas producer is obligated to PERTAMINA to deliver gas. PERTAMINA is obligated to deliver and sell gas to the third-party purchaser. 90 THE INDONESIA EXAMPLE CONT’D The third-party purchaser is obligated to PERTAMINA to pay for gas delivered, and for take-or-pay amounts (where the contract provided for this). PERTAMINA is obligated on a back-to-back basis, to the producer to remit the producers’ share of gas payments. 91 FINANCIAL SAFEGUARDS FOR GAS SALES CONTRACT 1 Paying Agent 2 The paying agent receives payments from the thirdparty purchaser and distributes to the gas producer and PERTAMINA their respective shares of payments. Vetting of Purchasers’ Financial Status The third-party purchasers’ financial capabilities must be ascertained and verified, as well as credibility to satisfy its contractual obligation during the term of the gas sales contract. 92 FINANCIAL SAFEGUARDS TO GAS SALES CONTRACTS CONT’D 3. Remedial Financial Safeguards If a purchasers’ financial status becomes impaired or deemed uncertain, certain modifications to the contractual structure may be required to assure the producer that the purchaser will comply with its contractual obligations Prepayment for gas deliveries Barter arrangements (where goods/services are traded in exchange for gas deliveries) may be adopted. 93 FINANCIAL SAFEGUARDS TO GAS SALES CONTRACTS CONT’D Issuance of financial supports, e.g. Letters of Credit, Bank Guarantees, Parent Company Guarantees. Issuance of sovereign guarantees by the Host Country. Most importantly, the contractual structure has to be determined and the financial status of the third-party purchaser ascertained and accepted before the negotiation and drafting of the Gas Sales Contract could proceed. 94 PART 4 OVERVIEW OF LNG 95 LIQUEFIED NATURAL GAS History of LNG First introduced by Michael Faraday: 19th century First LNG plant in West Virginia: 1912 First LNG tanker: The Methane Pioneer: 1959 35,000 bbls. from LA to UK Subsequent plants in Indonesia, Algeria, Trinidad and Tobago, and the UK 96 LNG Production Process Liquefaction Shipment Auto-refrigeration Large Tankers Re-gasification Increase pressure and then slowly warm 97 LNG Current Situation- US and ASIA are main consumers US re-gasification terminals in… Cove Point, MD Everett, MA Elba Island, GA Lake Charles, LA Main supply from Trinidad and Tobago, some from Qatar, Algeria, Nigeria, UAE 113 total storage, production, transportation sites for LNG in the world 98 LNG SAFETY AND ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUES Explosion Natural gas only burns in the presence of O2 LNG is mainly methane No explosion hazard Spills No slick created if a spill occurs NG concentration of 5-15% NG quickly dissipates Worker safety No deaths/injuries/accidents in 25 years at US plants No spills, fires on any LNG vessel 99 LNG USAGE / RESERVES Liquid natural gas consumption Is currently 1-2% of total NG consumption Estimated to rise to 15.8% per year through 2025 Representing 30% of total by 2025 Natural gas reserves Current proven NG reserves = 5,919 tcf 3% NG use growth rate CURRENTLY PROVEN reserves exhaustible in year 2106 US NG reserves = 250 tcf 100 LNG USAGE 18.00 16.00 12.00 10.00 LNG Natural Gas 8.00 6.00 4.00 2.00 20 22 20 24 20 18 20 20 20 14 20 16 20 10 20 12 20 06 20 08 0.00 20 02 20 04 Trillion Cubic Feet 14.00 101 LNG DEVELOPMENTS Tankers 136 tankers currently in operation, 57 ordered Very large!! Potential explosion hazard 130,000 m3 of LNG 2.70 bcf of NG Energy equivalent of 0.70 megatons of TNT (Trinitrotoluene) Re-gasification plants US Plans to build in major cities – New York City, etc 102 LNG PRODUCTION Much of world’s NG is in remote locations NG extremely cheap in these jurisdictions example: Saudi Arabia NG = $1.50/MM BTU United States NG = $7.13/MM BTU Based on economies of scale Used as needed “turned on” or “turned off” 103 LNG PRODUCTION COSTS -BUT... Costs are decreasing 104 LNG PRODUCTION COSTS DECREASING NG E&P costs 3D seismic modeling Complex wall architecture Improved sub-sea facilities Under-sea production LNG plant capital costs Design efficiencies Technology improvements 105 LNG PRODUCTION COSTS DECREASING Tanker costs Ship size increasing Ship power system efficiency improvement Longer operating life Re-gasification costs Plant costs down 18% in last 20 years 106 CURRENT LNG PRODUCTION COSTS Current production cost $1.80/MM BTU Feedstock cost Varies by production location Current total cost = $3.20 - $4.00/MM BTU 107 THE FUTURE OF NATURAL GAS LNG theoretically provides a “cap” on NG prices If NG costs more than $4.00/MM BTU, LNG becomes cheaper and is imported If NG costs less than $4.00/MM BTU, LNG becomes more expensive and not needed 12 10 8 $/MM BTU 6 4 2 0 Jan-98 May-99 Oct-00 Feb-02 Jun-03 Nov-04 108 PART 5 TRADE IN LNG 109 TRADE IN LIQUEFIED NATURAL GAS (LNG) LNG is natural gas that has been super-cooled under pressure to – 256 oF. Super cooling liquefies the gas and shrinks it to 1/600 of its original volume, which permits easier, more economical handling and transportation. LNG is shipped in cryogenic tankers to terminals in the importing countries, where it is re-gasified. Regasification means that the pressure is reduced to allow the liquid to warm up to gaseous state, and is then fed into local LNG pipelines. 110 HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVES (LNG) The LNG technology became economically viable during the energy crisis of the 1970s. With high oil prices, alternative energy became a very real goal for those industrial nations that relied heavily on oil imports. Less than 5% of world’s natural gas production is traded internationally as LNG. However, LNG remains an economic lifeline, both for its producers and its users. Between 1990 and 1997, worldwide LNG trade increased by 45%. By 2010, LNG trade had increased by 80%. 111 EXPORTERS OF LNG Major exporters are oil producing developing countries. In 1996, three nations accounted for more than 70% of world supply of LNG (Indonesia, Algeria, Malaysia). In 1996, Indonesia was the largest supplier (35% of global supply ) and traded more than 25 million tons of LNG. Note: 1 ton of LNG = 50m cubic feet of gas. Algeria contributed 20% of the total (14.5 million tons) Malaysia supplied about 17% of the market (12milion tons) 112 1996 DATA Major LNG Exporters Volume (Millions of tons) % Market Share Indonesia 25.0 35 Algeria 14.5 20 Malaysia 12.0 17 72% Other exporters – Abu Dhabi, Libya, Brunei, Qatar, Australia, Nigeria (1999) 113 LNG EXPORTERS: COMMON FACTORS These countries have limited domestic markets. Export by pipeline is not a viable alternative because of their geographical location and lack of infrastructure. For these countries, LNG exports are an alternative to gas flaring or shut – in of oil production. 114 MAJOR LNG IMPORTING COUNTRIES In 1996, three Asia countries (Japan, Korea, Taiwan) took delivery of almost 77% of the world’s LNG supplies. Japan was the largest importer, taking 61% of the total. India, Thailand, and China have electricity demand growth of 8% per year, and later joined the LNG importers group.. The Asian financial crisis that began in 1997 slowed the near-term future of LNG in Asia. 115 MAJOR LNG IMPORTING COUNTRIES CONT’D US has four LNG receiving terminals (Massachusetts, Maryland, Georgia and Louisiana terminals). LNG was uncompetitive in the US by 1996. Large gas reserves Well- developed pipeline systems Almost free gas market Note: US imports of LNG in 1996 were just over 1% of the world total. It is a different story today. 116 LNG TRADE/PROJECTS: LIMITATIONS Increased trade in LNG is marred by serious economic and geographic limitations. The major importers of LNG are driven by:: Necessity Need to achieve security of energy supply For example, some LNG importers such as Japan and Korea are geographically located such that they lack both domestic gas reserves or gas pipeline access to gas producing countries. Consequently, LNG projects are technically complex and very expensive. 117 CONSTRUCTION STAGES OF LNG PROJECTS 1. 2. 3. Liquefaction facilities to be located in the producing countries. Cryogenic tanker ships to transport the LNG (cost is roughly US $200 million). Re-gasification plants to be located in the receiving countries (Typical projects cost more than US $10 billion). LNG projects are economically feasible only where there are large proven natural gas reserves, and where markets and politics permit operation at a high load-factor over a long period of time. 118 CONSTRUCTION STAGES OF LNG PROJECTS: RISKS The producing country is unlikely to be able to finance all stages of an LNG project on its own. Importing countries are unlikely to be willing to provide financing for the liquefaction stage without assurances of gas supply. The enormous capital requirements and risks associated with LNG projects explain why most of the projects never take-off. 119 STRUCTURING, NEGOTIATING AND DOCUMENTING LNG PROJECTS LNG is one of the most complex energy ventures because of Its size Multitude of players and issues The interdependency of the LNG chain. Each project is uniquely structured because There is no one distinct pattern of participation in: Gas supply Revenue – sharing Financing ,etc. 120 STRUCTURING, NEGOTIATING AND DOCUMENTING LNG PROJECTS CONT’D Over time, trends have developed and one of these three models is generally utilized for structuring the LNG export projects Project company, Non-Incorporated JV company, and Tolling company 121 LNG PROJECT COMPANY MODEL (FOR DEVELOPING COUNTRIES) The participants become shareholders in a new LNG project company (usually incorporated in the country where the gas is located and produced). The project company finances and owns the LNG plant. The project company purchases gas from upstream producers, liquefies the gas, and resells the LNG to third-party purchasers. based on long-term contracts Thus, the project company is the entity that receives revenue from the LNG sale. 122 THE PROJECT COMPANY STRUCTURE (FOR DEVELOPING COUNTRIES) CONT’D The LNG sales revenues are passed back to the participants through shareholder dividends or based on the specified equity split The owners of gas reserves, if they are participants, also profit from the separate sale of their feed gas. Such upstream profits are taxed at a different rate (PETROLEUM PROFIT TAX, PPT) from the project company’s overall tax rate (Corporation Tax). Examples: Nigeria, Malaysia, Qatar, Oman, etc. 123 THE NON-INCORPORATED JOINT- VENTURE MODEL (FOR DEVELOPED COUNTRIES) Projects in Alaska (US) and Australia followed this model due to the following considerations: Legal Issues Tax Issues Marketing For instance, each of the Six participants in the NorthWest shelf project in Australia owns one sixth of the LNG plant, supplies one sixth of the gas, and is entitled to one sixth of the revenues. 124 THE NON-INCORPORATED JOINT VENTURE MODEL (FOR DEVELOPED COUNTRIES) CONT’D Woodside Petroleum, one of the participants is appointed ‘the operator of the venture’ on behalf of all participants. The NIJV approach, which is common for upstream oil and gas projects is a suitable choice for projects in countries where: The government takes a passive role in petroleum development (i.e. receives royalty or tax only). A well-known and robust legal system underpins such ventures. 125 THE TOLLING COMPANY MODEL: THE INDONESIAN EXAMPLE Pertamina (Indonesia NOC) and its production-sharing partners jointly market the LNG to buyers. Since the companies liquefying the gas does not make a profit, all revenue generated go to Pertamina and the upstream partners and the revenues are split according to the equity split specified in the relevant production-sharing contracts. 126 THE TOLLING COMPANY MODEL CONT’D Has been very successful in Indonesia. Indonesia Government in 1973 financed and owned 2 LNG plants. Two separate companies were incorporated to operate the two LNG plants and liquefy the gas on a non-profit basis. Neither company was permitted to either purchase natural gas from upstream producers or resell the LNG to thirdparty purchaser. 127 THE TOLLING COMPANY Since the mid- 1980’s, the Indonesia government no longer funds the construction of LNG trains. However, the Tolling Company structure has successfully supported the limited- recourse financing of four new trains. 128 PART 6 LNG CONTRACTS 129 PROVISIONS IN LNG CONTRACTS Most important provisions in an LNG contract: Volume (quantities) Price clauses Initial LNG contracts (1960s and 1970s) were long-term (10 -12 years) and contained specific volume guarantees and rigid price floors. They resemble the take –or-pay agreements. The parties to an LNG project may choose to use a financial institution (in an economically and politically stable country) as a PAYING AGENT, to collect and disburse funds. 130 Conventional LNG Contracts Designed to Recover Huge Investment In Gas Production & Transportation Facilities Vertically-integrated multi-billion dollar projects Contracts with risk-sharing schemes required when financing the projects 131 Conventional LNG Contracts Typical Terms Oil-indexation: directly indexed to international crude oil prices Long duration: 15+ years Take-or-pay: minimum level of payment guaranteed Destination clause: diversion or re-sell only with sellers’ consent Unclear or no clause on price-review or renegotiation 132 LNG Market – Getting Flexible Cargoes with Flexible Terms Rising Short-term or Spot Trade Uncontracted volumes, re-exports, commissioning cargoes… US LNG Export No destination clause Less take-or-pay costs Aggregators Able to offer various types of contracts with their portfolios 133 Fair LNG Trade as Importers See It Reflective of Global Market Conditions Conventional contractual terms: snapshot of market dynamics at the time of signing Regular review of contracts: price, volume,… Not in Conflict with Competition Laws Destination clause on FOB: no rationale but price discrimination Reasonable Price Differentials across Regions Differentials cannot be greater than difference in transportation costs 134 GLOBAL LNG MARKETS Most of this gas was contracted on inflexible Long Term Agreements (LTAs) with pricing formulae indexed to oil. By 2000 global liquefaction capacity had grown to 115 mTpa with imports totaling 110 mTpa. This close match in production and imports was due to project sanctions for LNG infrastructure only being granted once for all future production 135 LNG MARKETS LNG is changing from a niche, high cost activity focused on specific markets to a core feature of the global gas balance Demand is expected to grow by ~30% pa over the next 10 years LNG currently accounts for ~8% of gas demand 136 LNG MARKET – OUTLOOK TODAY Today the global LNG market can be divided into two distinct regions, the Atlantic Basin (AB) and the Pacific Basin (PB). Demand is strongest in countries surrounding the PB with Japan being the largest individual market. Growth is expected to be strongest in the regions that surround the AB. LNG markets are still dominated by LTAs but this is changing as more flexibility is built into the markets. 137 LNG MARKET – OUTLOOK TODAY The emergence of the US as a major market has seen contracts evolve to allow a greater degree of diversion flexibility across the AB, creating opportunities for regional gas-on-gas arbitrage and optimization. The industry is heavily influenced by the regulatory environment and competition to secure market access is fierce. Successful players will be those willing to offer nontraditional contractual arrangements. 138 LNG MARKET – SUPPLY & DEMAND Cooled Demand in NE Asia Importing countries have demand uncertainties Slow economic growth Price competition with coal, oil Surge of New Supply Australia: 86MMt/yr in 2017 US: 62MMt/yr under construction Buyer’s Market Ahead Supply glut up to 2020, or beyond (mid-2020s) 139 DIFFERENCES BETWEEN LNG & GTL TECHNOLOGIES LNG technology converts natural gas to a liquid state for transportation and then back to a gaseous state for use. GTL technology converts natural gas to light, synthetic crude, and then to clean, light petroleum products, such as gasoline, diesel fuel, kerosene, and naphtha. An added bonus of GTL technology is that it produces zero sulfur, making the light synthetic crude the most desirable crude in the world. 140 GTL PROCESS TECHNOLOGY 141 LNG PROCESS TECHNOLOGY 142