Energy Future and Natural
Gas Technologies
Michael J. Economides
University of Houston
Nov. 17, 2004
The Continuous Energy Crisis
of the 21st Century
 Oil over $50
(It is not just OPEC)
 Venezuela, Nigeria, Iraq
 China has gone berserk
 Price may go even higher, soon
 Natural gas at $10-plus
 Alan Greenspan
(Over and over again)
(“LNG the only solution”)
US ENERGY CONSUMPTION
U.S. Energy Consumption by Source
160
Other
140
Hydropower
Nuclear
120
4.3%
2.3%
6.2%
Coal
100
Oil
3%
3%
23.3%
8%
80
23%
24%
60
24%
40
39%
40
20
0
19
70
19
72
19
74
19
76
19
78
19
80
19
82
19
84
19
86
19
88
19
90
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
Energy, Quatrillion Btu
Natural Gas
Year
The New Energy Economy
Carbon
content:
•
•
•
•
•
Wood (1800s)
Coal
Oil
Natural Gas
Hydrogen (envisioned)
High
Increasingly:
• Clean
Medium
• Energy intensive
Low
• Technologically
sophisticated
(Zero)
• Distributed
The emerging “hydrogen economy” better
characterized as a “fuel cell economy” that will run
on natural gas--i.e. a “natural gas economy”
US Energy Flow (Quadrillion BTU)
2003 EIA Annual Energy Review
Energy Use in the United
States (2003)
 Total
97 Quads
(Direct)*
 Residential
20%
(34%)
 Commercial
18%
(24%)
 Industrial
34%
(66%)
 Transportation
28%
(99.8%)**
*Rest is electricity
**All oil
Candidate John Kerry on
Meet the Press, Sunday, April 18
“I'm going to move the United
States of America towards
energy independence. I'm going
to set a goal, that by the year
2020, 20 percent of our electricity
will be produced from alternative
and renewable sources.”
Capacity Brought on Line for Electric Power
Generation by Fuel Type (1950-2002)
80,000
Name Plate Capacity MW
Recent years have seen an
explosion in new gas fired
generation, but little building in
other fuels.
Other
Petroleum
Hydro
Nuclear
Gas
Coal
70,000
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
Source: RDI PowerDat database. Last updated 9/15/03.
2001
1998
1995
1992
1989
1986
1983
1980
1977
1974
1971
1968
1965
1962
1959
1956
1953
1950
0
World Gas Prices
Russia
$0.80
Europe
$3.70
U.S.
$5.50
Venezuela
$0.75
Argentina
$1.25
Source: American Chemistry Council
Middle
East
$0.60
Indonesia
$1.20
U.S. Natural Gas Demand
and Supply Sources
60
Tcf per year
50
Economides and Oligney
“twist” demand forecast
Japan-sized LNG
Natural gas hydrates?
DOE/EIA demand forecast
40
Arctic
Deepwater
30
Canada
20
Shallow Offshore
Unconventional
10
Conventional
0
2000
2004
2008
2010
2012
2020
LNG tanker underway
Photo Courtesy of BP
Announced
June 12, 2001
Announced
October 29,
2003
Cheniere LNG
Shell LNG
Exxon Mobil announced plans to build
the nation's largest LNG import
terminal for 2 BCF/d from Qatar to
land-based locations at either
Corpus Christi, Sabine Pass or
Mobile, Ala. October 15, 2003
CNG Transport
CNG Cargo Containment System
Scenario Replacing Oil Imported
for Transportation with Gas
U.S. Energy Consumption by Source
160
Other
140
Hydropower
Nuclear
120
4.3%
2.3%
6.2%
Coal
100
Oil
3%
3%
23.3%
8%
80
23%
24%
60
24%
40
39%
40
20
Industrial Use
0
19
70
19
72
19
74
19
76
19
78
19
80
19
82
19
84
19
86
19
88
19
90
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
Energy, Quatrillion Btu
Natural Gas
Year
Extravagant Target
To replace all imported oil with gas by the
year 2024 (15 MMBOPD), there must be
90 BCF/D of additional gas imported
(beyond what is expected for power
generation)
Modest Target
To replace 1/3 of imported oil with gas by the
year 2024 (5 MMBOPD), there must be 30
BCF/D of additional gas imported (beyond
what is expected for power generation)
Gas-To-Liquids (GTL)
• What are they?
• A technology which promises to
complement LNG in transporting
remote natural gas to distant markets
in the absence of existing pipelines.
• Unlike LNG, which is liquefied gas
that is vaporized for use, GTL
processes convert the gas into
hydrocarbon liquids.
• Require sustained $24 oil price
Dual-Mode Vehicle Alternative
environmentally friendly, point to point travel at high speed private mass transit
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Golfing for Hydrogen
Bovine Brain Power > Mad Car Disease?