LEVEL III SCHWESER’S QuickSheet Critical Concepts for the 2022 CFA® Exam SS1: BEHAVIORAL FINANCE SS2: CAPITAL MARKET EXPECTATIONS Cognitive Errors and Emotional Biases • Cognitive errors—Result from incomplete information or inability to analyze. • Emotional biases—Spontaneous reactions that affect how individuals see information. Cognitive Errors • Conservatism bias—Emphasizing information used in original forecast over new data. • Confirmation bias—Seeking data to support beliefs; discounting contradictory facts. • Representativeness bias—If-then stereotype heuristic used to classify new information. Base rate neglect—Too little consideration given to the initial classification being correct. Sample size neglect—Inferring too much from a small new sample of information. • Control bias—Individuals feel they have more control over outcomes than they actually have. • Hindsight bias—Selective memory of past events, remember correct views and forget errors. • Anchoring and adjustment—Fixating on a target number once investor has it in mind. • Mental accounting bias—Each goal, and corresponding wealth, is considered separately. • Framing bias—Viewing information differently depending on how it is received. • Availability bias—Future probabilities are impacted by memorable past events. Emotional Biases • Loss aversion bias—Placing more “value” on losses than on a gain of the same magnitude. Myopic loss aversion—If individuals systematically avoid equity to avoid potential short run declines in value (loss aversion), equity prices will be biased downward (and future returns biased upward). • Overconfidence bias—Illusion of having superior information or ability to interpret. Prediction overconfidence—Leads to setting confidence intervals too narrow. Certainty overconfidence—Overstated probabilities of success. • Self-attribution bias—Self-enhancing bias plus selfprotecting bias causes overconfidence. Self-enhancing bias—Individuals take all the credit for their successes. Self-protecting bias—Placing the blame for failure on someone or something else. • Self-control bias—Suboptimal savings due to focus on short-term over long-term goals. • Status quo bias—Individuals’ tendency to stay in their current investments. • Endowment bias—Valuing an asset already held higher (than if it were not already held). • Regret-aversion bias—Regret can arise from taking or not taking action. Error of commission—From action taken. Error of omission—From not taking action. Behavioral biases in DC plan participants: • Status quo bias—Investors make no changes to their initial asset allocation. • Naïve diversification—1/n allocation. • Disposition effect—Sell winners; hold losers. • Home bias—Placing a high proportion of assets in stocks of firms in their own country. • Mental accounting—See mental accounting bias. • Gambler’s fallacy—Wrongly predicting reversal to the mean. • Social proof bias—Following the beliefs of a group (i.e., “groupthink”). Long-term economic growth rate: pop growth + labor force part. + new cap. spending + TFP Taylor rule: ntarget = rneutral + iexpected + [0.5(GDPexpected – GDPtrend) + 0.5(iexpected − itarget)] = target nominal short-term interest rate = neutral real short-term interest rate GDPexpected = expected GDP growth rate GDPtrend = long-term trend in the GDP growth rate iexpected = expected inflation rate itarget = target inflation rate ntarget rneutral Risk premium approach to expected bond return: risk-free rate + term premium + credit premium + liquidity premium Grinold-Kroner model: ≈ D/P + (%ΔE − %ΔS) + %ΔP/E = expected equity return = dividend yield = percentage change in earnings = percentage change in shares outstanding %ΔP/E = expected repricing return E(Re) E(Re) D/P %ΔE %ΔS Singer-Terhaar model: Risk premium assuming full integration: RPi = ρi,Mσi(market Sharpe ratio) Risk premium assuming full segmentation: RPi = σi(market Sharpe ratio) Weighted average risk premium: RPi = (degree of integration of i) (ERP assuming full integration) + (degree of segmentation of i) (ERP assuming full segmentation) Commercial real estate: Cap rate = NOI / (property value) E(Rre) = cap rate + NOI growth rate For a finite time period: E(Rre) = cap rate + NOI growth rate – %Δcap rate MVO use E(R), σ, and correlations to solve for the efficient frontier (EF) and asset allocation. Pitfalls of MVO analysis include: estimating the inputs, concentrated allocations, and a single period analysis. Utility maximization: Um = E(Rm) − 0.005 × λ × Varm Um = the investor’s utility from investing in a portfolio with asset allocation m E(Rm) = the expected return of the portfolio with asset allocation m (expressed as a %) λ = t he investor’s risk aversion coefficient (“lambda”) Varm = σ2m = t he variance of the portfolio with asset allocation m (expressed as a %) • Reverse optimization solves for the E(R)s based on market weights. • Black-Litterman view adjusts these returns and then resolves for an EF. • Monte Carlo simulation models how an allocation may perform over time. SS4: DERIVATIVES AND CURRENCY MANAGEMENT Option Strategies Know the inherent payoff patterns of the option combinations, then: • Calculate profit/loss at any ending price for the underlying as sum of initial investment versus ending value of the positions held. • Max gain and loss: examine the payoff pattern and, from that underlying’s price, sum the initial investment versus ending value of the positions held. • Breakeven(s): examine the payoff pattern and, from either max gain or loss, determine how much the underlying must increase or decrease. Synthetic long forward = long call + short put. Both options are short the underlying. • Covered Call Protective Put SS3: ASSET ALLOCATION Asset Allocation Approaches • Asset-only: focuses on asset return and standard deviation. • Liability-relative: focuses on growth of the surplus and standard deviation. • Goals-based: uses subportfolios to meet specified goals. Asset classes: • Assets within a class are similar and don’t fit in more than one class. • Classes have low correlation to other classes, cover all investable assets, and are liquid. Calendar rebalancing is done at a set frequency. Percentage range rebalancing is when a band is violated. Wider bands for: higher transaction cost and correlations between classes, higher risk tolerance, momentum markets, and less volatile asset classes. • Bull Spread • Bear Spread Collar: Payoff pattern is identical to a bull spread but includes owning the underlying. Straddle • Calendar spread—Options have different expirations. • Volatility smile—Further-from-ATM options have higher implied volatilities resulting in a U-shaped (smiling) curve when implied volatility is plotted against strike price. continued on next page... DERIVATIVES AND CURRENCY MANAGEMENT continued... • Volatility skew—Implied volatility increases for more OTM puts, and decreases for more OTM calls. Explained by OTM puts being desirable as insurance against market declines while the demand for OTM calls is low. • For an expected increase in equity market volatility buy an ATM call on volatility index (VIX) futures and sell an OTM put on VIX futures. Choosing Options Strategies Based on Direction and Volatility of the Underlying Asset Expected move in implied volatility Decrease Remain unchanged Increase Outlook on the Trend of Underlying Asset Bearish Neutral Bullish Write Write calls Write puts straddle Write calls Calendar Buy calls and and buy puts spread write puts Buy puts Buy straddle Buy calls Interest rate swaps Converting fixed-rate and floating-rate exposures: Existing Exposure Floating-rate liability Fixed-rate liability Floating-rate asset Fixed-rate asset Converting Floating to fixed Fixed to floating Floating to fixed Fixed to floating Interest Rate Swap Required Beneficial When: floating rates Payer swap expected to rise floating rates Receiver swap expected to fall floating rates Receiver swap expected to fall floating rates Payer swap expected to rise The notional principal of the interest rate swap. MDT − MDP (MVP ) NPS = MDS where: NPS = notional swap principal MDT = target modified duration MDP = current portfolio modified duration MDS = modified duration of swap MVP = market value of portfolio Forward rate agreements are typically used to hedge the uncertainty about a future short-term borrowing or lending rate. Hedging Interest Rate Risk Using Treasury Futures To hedge the interest rate risk of a long bond portfolio the fund manager will use Treasury bond futures. A duration-based hedge ratio (BPV HR) is calculated to determine the number of futures contracts required for a hedge. −BPVportfolio BPVHR = × CF BPVCTD Basis point value (BPV) is the expected change in value of a security or portfolio given a one basis point (0.01%) change in yield. BPVHR = number of short futures BPVPortfolio = MDPortfolio × 0.01% × MVPortfolio MD = modified duration BPVCTD = MDCTD × 0.01% × MVCTD MVCTD = CTD price / 100 × $100,000 To achieve a target duration, the formula can be amended to: BPVtarget − BPVportfolio BPVHR = × CF BPVCTD BPVTarget = MDTarget × 0.0001 × MVPortfolio Currency forwards and futures allow users to exchange a specified amount of one currency for a specified amount of another currency on a future date. Forwards are customized while futures are standardized contracts. The hedge ratio for futures can be calculated as: HR = amount of currency to be exchanged futures contract size Equity swaps can be used to create a synthetic exposure to physical stocks, allowing market participants to increase or decrease their exposure to equity returns. The three main types of swaps: 1. Pay fixed, receive equity return 2. Pay floating, receive equity return 3. Pay another equity return, receive equity return Equity Futures and Forwards Equity futures are exchange-traded, standardized, require margin, have low transaction costs, and are available on indexes and single stocks. They enable market participants to: • Implement tactical allocation decisions (alter the exposure to equity of a portfolio). Selling futures (short position) reduces equity exposure. Buying futures (long position) increases equity exposure. • Achieve portfolio diversification. • Gain exposure to international markets. • Make directional bets on the direction of the market. Forwards provide the same advantages but lack liquidity, are not subject to mark-to-market margin adjustments, counterparty credit risk exists, major advantage is they can be customized. Achieving a target portfolio beta: β − βP MVP number of futures required = T F β F where: βT = target portfolio beta βP = current portfolio beta βF = futures beta (beta of stock index) MVP = market value of portfolio F = futures contract value = futures price × multiplier Note that to fully hedge the portfolio from market risk βT = 0. VIX Futures • Negative correlation between the VIX and stock returns which becomes more pronounced during equity market downturns. • An equity holding can be protected from extreme downturns (tail risk) by buying VIX futures. If volatility increases the equity portfolio will decline in value but VIX futures should increase in value. • VIX futures will increase in value when the market’s expectation of future volatility at contract maturity increases. Position Long futures position Short futures position Long futures position Short futures position Term structure Contango Contango Backwardation Backwardation Roll yield Negative Positive Positive Negative VIX Options • Call options gain in value if expectations of volatility at maturity of the option increase. • Put options gain in value if expectations of volatility fall. Variance swaps are based on variance (σ2) rather than volatility (standard deviation). Implied variance K2 (fixed at initiation) Counterparty 1 Counterparty 2 Realized variance σ (unknown at initiation) 2 There is no initial exchange of notional principal, no interim settlement periods, and a single payment at the expiration of the swap based on the difference between actual and implied variance over the life of the swap. Settlement amountT = (variance notional)(realized variance – variance strike) Long (purchaser) describes the counterparty who receives the realized variance (actual) and pays the swap’s variance strike (implied volatility). Realized Buyer (long) of swap > strike volatility makes a profit Realized Buyer (long) of swap < strike volatility makes a loss The notional amount for a variance swap can be expressed as either variance notional (NVAR) or vega notional (NVEGA). vega notional , so variance notional = 2 × strike price (K) profit or loss = NVAR × (σ2 – K2) = σ2 − K 2 N vega × 2K where: σ = realized volatility K = strike volatility (implied volatility) Both the actual (σ) and the implied volatility (K) on the swap are quoted in standard deviations, but remember that this is a variance swap; therefore, we must square the volatility. The market convention is to quote the notional on a swap as vega notional (NVEGA) rather than variance notional (NVAR). Recall that vega refers to the change in option premium per a 1% change ∆premium in volatility, , a natural way to think ∆volatility about the return for volatility. Foreign Currency Equations RDC = (1 + RFC)(1 + RFX) – 1 = RFC + RFX + (RFC)(RFX) RDC ≈ RFC + RFX RFC = return on the foreign asset and RFX = return on the foreign currency σ2(RDC) ≈ σ 2(RFC) + σ2(RFX) + 2σ (RFC) σ(RFX) ρ(RFC,RFX) If RFC is a risk-free asset: σ(RDC) = σ(RFX)(1 + RFC) Currency Management Strategies • Passive hedging: eliminates currency risk relative to the benchmark. • Discretionary hedging allows the manager to deviate modestly from passive hedging. The goal is risk reduction. • Active currency management allows a manager to have greater deviations from passive hedging. The goal is adding value. • Currency overlay is the outsourcing of currency management to another manager. Factors That Shift the Strategic Decision Toward a Benchmark Neutral or Fully Hedged Strategy • A short time horizon for portfolio objectives. • High risk aversion. • Little weight given to the opportunity costs of missing positive currency returns. • High short-term income and liquidity needs. • Significant foreign currency bond exposure. • Low hedging costs. • Clients who doubt the benefits of discretionary management. Tactical Currency Management • Economic fundamentals: in the long term, relative currency values will converge to their fair values. Increases in currency values are associated with currencies: That are undervalued relative to their fundamental value. That have the greatest rate of increase in fundamental value. continued on next page... DERIVATIVES AND CURRENCY MANAGEMENT continued... With higher real or nominal interest rates. With lower inflation relative to other countries. Of countries with decreasing risk premiums. • Carry trade: borrow in a lower interest rate currency and invest in a higher interest rate currency. • Volatility trading: profit from predicting changes in currency volatility. If volatility is expected to increase, purchase an at-the-money call and put (long straddle). Sell volatility by selling both options (a short straddle). Forward Premiums or Discounts and Currency Hedging Costs If the hedge requires: FP/B > SP/B, iB < iP The forward price curve is upward sloping. A long forward Negative roll yield, position in currency B which increases the hedge earns: hedging cost and discourages hedging. A short forward Positive roll yield, position in currency B which decreases the hedge earns: hedging cost and encourages hedging. FP/B < SP/B, iB > iP The forward price curve is downward sloping. Positive roll yield, which decreases hedging cost and encourages hedging. Negative roll yield, which increases hedging cost and discourages. The minimum-variance hedge ratio (MVHR): a regression of past changes in value of the portfolio to past changes in value of the foreign currency. The hedge ratio is the beta (slope coefficient) of that regression. • Strong positive correlation between RFX and RFC increases the volatility of RDC resulting in a hedge ratio > 1.0. • Strong negative correlation between RFX and RFC decreases the volatility of RDC resulting in a hedge ratio < 1.0. SS5 & 6: FIXED INCOME Liability-based mandates: • Cash flow matching directly funds liabilities with coupon and par amounts. • Duration matching requires: • PVA = PVL; there are exceptions when asset and liability discount rates differ. • DA = DL or BPVA = BPVL • Minimize portfolio convexity but make it greater than that of the liabilities. • Derivatives overlays: • involving the use of futures or swaps contracts, can be used to implement duration matching or contingent immunization strategies. Regularly rebalance the portfolio: BPVfutures ≈ BPVCTD / CFCTD BPV = MD × V × 0.0001 Nf = (BPVL – current BPV) / BPVfutures • Nonparallel yield curve shifts can be a problem, match key rate durations: %Δ value = –MDkey rate n Δyn • Contingent immunization: active management if the surplus is positive. (PV− ) − (PV+ ) Effective duration = 2(∆Curve)(PV0 ) Effective convexity = (PV− ) + (PV+ ) − 2(PV0 ) (∆Curve)2 (PV0 ) where: PV0 = current value of the portfolio PV– = value of portfolio when benchmark curve is shifted down PV+ = value of portfolio when benchmark curve is shifted up ΔCurve = change in benchmark curve Return can be projected (or actual return decomposed) as the sum of: 1. Coupon income: annual coupon amount / current bond price 2. Rolldown return, assuming no change in yield curve: (projected ending bond price (BP) − beginning BP) / beginning BP 3. Price change due to investor yield change predictions: (–MD × ΔY) + (½C × ΔY2) 4. Price change due to investor yield change predictions: (–MD × ΔS) + (½C × ΔS2) 5. Currency G/L: projected change in value of foreign currencies weighted for exposure to the currency Coupon income + rolldown return may be referred to as rolling yield. Leveraged return = rI + [(VB / VE) × (rI – rB)]. where: rp = return on portfolio rI = return on invested assets rB = rate paid on borrowings VB = amount of leverage VE = amount of equity invested Active management for a stable upward sloping yield curve: • Buy and hold: extend duration to get higher yields. • Roll down the yield curve: portfolio weighting highest for securities at the long end of the steepest yield curve segments, maximize gains on securities from declines in yield as time passes. • Repo carry trade: borrow at lower rates to purchase securities with higher rates. • Long futures position • Receive-fixed swap Active management for a changing yield curve: • Increase (decrease) portfolio duration if rates are expected to decrease (increase). • Add call options on either a bond price or a bond futures contract to increase duration and convexity. • Add put options on either a bond price or bond futures contract to decrease duration and convexity. • A payer swaption (right to enter a pay-fixed swap decreases duration and convexity. • A receiver swaption (right to enter a receive-fixed swap) increases duration and convexity. KeyRateDur = − change in portfolio value portfolio value × change in key rate • Increase portfolio convexity (decreasing yield) when large changes in rates are expected. • Bullet portfolios have more yield, but barbells have more convexity and also tend to outperform in curve-flattening environments. Curvature of the yield curve can be measured through the butterfly spread: butterfly spread = –(short-term yield) + (2 × medium-term yield) – long-term yield • % Δ value = –MDΔy • %Δrelative value = –SDΔs where spread duration (SD) measures a portfolio’s percentage sensitivity to a 1% change in credit spreads (Δs). • spread = yhigher yield – ygovernment • spread ≈ POD × LGD (PV− ) − (PV+ ) • EffRateDurFRN = 2( ∆ MRR )(PV0 ) (PV− ) − (PV+ ) 2(∆DM)(PV0 ) (PV− ) − (PV+ ) • effective spread duration = 2(∆spread )(PV0 ) • EffSpreadDurFRN = • effective spread convexity = (PV− ) + (PV+ ) − 2(PV0 ) (∆spread )2 (PV0 ) • %Δprice = (–EffSpreadDur × Δspread) + (½ × EffSpreadCon × Δspread2) • Expected excess spread = spread – (EffSpreadDur × Δspread) – (POD × LGD) • Effective spread for a buy order = trade size × (trade price – midquote) • Effective spread for a sell order = trade size × (midquote – trade price) where: midquote = (bid + ask) / 2 • CDS price ≈ 1 + [(fixed coupon – CDS spread) × EffSpreadDurCDS] SS7 & 8: EQUITIES Constructing and maintaining the index involves: • The weighting method to construct the index: (1) market-cap weighting, (2) price weighting, (3) equal weighting, or (4) fundamental weighting. • Considering the level of stock concentration. The “effective number of stocks” can be determined as the reciprocal of the Herfindahl-Hirschman index (HHI): n HHI = ∑ w2i i =1 1 HHI Common equity risk factors: growth, value, size, yield, momentum, quality, and volatility. Factor-based strategies: return oriented, risk oriented, and diversification oriented. Common approaches to passive equity investing use: (1) pooled investments, such as open-end mutual funds and ETFs, (2) derivatives-based strategies, and (3) separately-managed index-based portfolios. Three methods of constructing passively managed index-based equity portfolios: (1) full replication, (2) stratified sampling, often based on cell matching, (3) technical and quantitative approach (optimization) Fundamental managers use discretionary judgment vs. quantitative managers use rules-based (systematic) data-driven models. Fundamental law of active management: effective number of stocks = E(R A ) = IC BR σRA TC Active share measures the degree to which the number and sizing of the positions in a manager’s portfolio differ to those of a benchmark: n 1 Active share = Wp,i − Wb,i 2 ∑ i=1 Active risk (tracking error), is the standard deviation of active returns (portfolio returns minus benchmark returns). Long extension portfolios guarantee investors 100% net exposure with a specified short exposure. A typical 130/30 fund will have 130% long and 30% short positions. Market-neutral portfolios aim to remove market exposure through offsetting long and short positions. Pairs trading is a common technique in building market-neutral portfolios, with quantitative pair trading referred to as statistical arbitrage. Benefits of long/short strategies include the ability to better express negative views, the ability to gear into high-conviction long positions, the removal of market risk to diversify, and the ability to better control risk factor exposures. Drawbacks of long/short strategies include potential large losses since share prices are not bounded above, negative exposures to risk premiums, potentially high leverage for market-neutral funds, and the costs of borrowing securities and collateral demands from prime brokers. Being subject to a short squeeze on short positions is also a risk. SS9: ALTERNATIVE INVESTMENTS Hedge Funds Strategies: 1. Equity related with the primary source of risk being equity risk. a. Long/short equity—The fund manager takes long positions in stocks that they think will rise in value, and takes short positions in stocks that they believe will fall in value. b. Dedicated short bias funds—These seek overpriced securities to sell short. c. Equity market neutral—These seek to attain a near-zero overall exposure to the stock market. Take long positions in undervalued stocks and short positions in overvalued stocks with the betas of the positions summing to zero. Alpha occurs through mean reversion. 2. Event-driven relate to corporate actions such as governance activities, mergers, acquisitions, bankruptcies, and other major business events. The main risk is event risk. a. Merger arbitrage earns a return from the uncertainty that exists in the market from when an acquisition is announced until completed (i.e., the fund manager purchases the stock of the target company and shorts the stock of the acquiring company, anticipating the deal will be completed). b. Distressed securities take positions in the securities of firms that are in financial distress, including firms that are in bankruptcy or nearbankruptcy. 3. Relative value strategies profit from the relative valuation differences between securities. a. Fixed-income arbitrage takes advantage of temporary mispricing of fixed-income instruments by going long undervalued securities and short overvalued securities. Yield curve trades go long and short fixedincome investments in order to profit from the anticipated yield curve steepening or flattening. Carry trade the portfolio manager shorts a low-yielding security and goes long a highyielding security. b. Convertible bond arbitrage the manager purchases the convertible bond which is often underpriced and short sells the underlying equity. 4. Opportunistic strategies employ a topdown approach making macro investments on a global basis across regions, sectors, and asset classes. a. Global macro profits from making correct assessments and forecasts of various global economic variables. b. Managed futures strategies take long and short positions in derivatives contracts. 5. Specialist strategies require specialized market expertise or knowledge. a. Volatility strategies trade volatility-related assets globally. b. Insurance/reinsurance strategies: Insurance strategy—An insured person sells their insurance policy (through a broker) to a hedge fund. Reinsurance strategies—Insurance companies sell off some of their risk to reinsurance companies who may then sell the risk to hedge funds in exchange for capital. 6. Multimanager strategies use other hedge fund strategies as building blocks, combining different strategies together, rebalancing exposures over time. Drawdown: • Defined as the percentage peak-to-trough decline for a portfolio. • High-water mark refers to the maximum value the portfolio has ever reached. Estimating investor cash flows to and from a private investment: • Capital contribution in period t = percentage to be called in period t × (committed capital – capital previously called) • Distributions in period t = percentage to be distributed in period t × [NAV in period t – 1 × (1 + growth rate)] • NAV in period t = [NAV in period t – 1 × (1 + growth rate)] + contributions in period t – distributions in period t SS10 & 11: PRIVATE WEALTH OVERVIEW OF PRIVATE WEALTH MANAGEMENT Behavioral Biases Associated with Retirees: • Increased loss aversion. Affects return assumptions and asset allocation decisions in retirement. • Consumption gaps. Consumption spending tends to be lower than what economic studies forecast, can be attributed to loss aversion and uncertainty about future retirement spending. • The “annuity puzzle”. Individuals tend to avoid buying annuities, possible explanations include: (a) clinging to hope of funding a better retirement lifestyle, (b) a desire to keep control of assets, and (c) the high cost of annuities. • Mental accounting and lack of self-control. Retirees prefer to meet their spending needs from investment income rather than liquidating securities. IPS for a Private Clients: • Client Background obtained from relevant personal, financial and tax information. Investment Objectives may be planned, unplanned, ongoing, or one-off. Multiple objectives should be prioritized into primary and secondary objectives. • Key Investment Parameters: Risk tolerance—willingness and ability, low risk tolerance usually associated with high priority goals and near-term goals. Time horizon—described as a range (e.g. in excess of 15 years for a long horizon and less than 10 years for a short horizon). If multiple objectives, a different time horizon for each objective. Other investment parameters—include asset class preferences, liquidity preferences (including a cash reserve), unique investment preferences. Constraints—restricting investments for client’s portfolio. • Asset Allocation—Strategic long-term target asset allocation for each asset class and tactical asset allocation as an active management strategy specifying a range for each asset class. • Portfolio Management and Implementation guidelines for discretionary authority, portfolio rebalancing, tactical asset allocation changes, and acceptable investment vehicles. • Wealth Manager Duties and Responsibilities include; formulating/reviewing the client’s IPS, constructing the portfolio, monitoring and rebalancing the portfolio, monitoring portfolio costs and third-party providers, and reporting portfolio performance. • IPS Appendix includes modelled portfolio performance and capital market expectations. Portfolio Construction: • Traditional Approach—views risk in an overall portfolio context. • Goals-based investing—separate portfolios are created for each of the client’s goals. Mean-variance optimization used to maximize expected returns for a given level of risk or to meet a specified probability of success is carried out for each goal portfolio rather than for the entire portfolio. TOPICS IN PRIVATE WEALTH MANAGEMENT • Main categories of taxes: income tax, capital gains tax, wealth/property tax, stamp duties, wealth transfer tax. • General equation for capital gains: net sales price – tax (cost) basis = capital gain/loss. • Three main types of investment accounts: taxable, tax-deferred (TDA), and tax-exempt (TEA). Common metrics used in examining tax efficiency: 1. After-tax holding period return R' = [(value1 – value0) + income – tax] / value0 Alternatively, R' = R – (tax / value0). 2. After-tax post-liquidation return (RPL) involves deducting the implied tax: RPL = [(1 + R'1)(1 + R'2)…(1 + R'n) – (liquidation tax/final value)]1/n – 1. Liquidation tax = (final value – tax basis) × tax rate on capital gains 3. After-tax excess return (x') is computed as the after-tax return of the portfolio (R') minus the after-tax return of the benchmark (B'): x' = R' – B'. In this regard, the tax alpha would be defined as after-tax excess return (x') minus the pretax excess return (x): atax = x' – x 4. Tax-efficiency ratio (TER) is calculated as after-tax return (R') divided by pretax return (R):TER = R' / R Taxable accounts involve one or more tax rates on income (e.g., interest, dividends) or return (e.g., realized capital gains) to determine R’: FVAT = (1 + R’)n Tax exempt accounts (TEAs), after-tax funds are deposited so no tax is due on the returns earned or on withdrawals: FVAT = (1 + R)n Tax deferred accounts (TDAs), pretax funds are deposited and the investor may take a tax deduction for the amount contributed thereby reducing taxable income and taxes due. All tax is deferred until withdrawal allowing tax-deferred compounding: FVAT = (1 + R)n(1 – t) Tax-efficient assets (e.g., equities that generate capital gains are often subject to lower tax rates) should be placed in taxable accounts. Tax-inefficient assets (e.g., taxable bonds that generate taxable interest, which is often subject to higher tax rates) should be placed in tax-exempt or tax-deferred accounts. Four common investment vehicles include: • Partnership • Mutual fund • Exchange-traded fund (ETF) • Separately managed account (SMA) Tax loss harvesting involves the sale of securities with embedded losses to offset gains, which will lower the tax liability for the current year. • Highest in, first out (HIFO) is generally optimal • In case future tax rates are expected to be higher than current tax rates, first in, first out (FIFO) may be better • In case future tax rates are expected to be lower than current tax rates, last in, first out (LIFO) may be better Strategies for managing a concentrated position in public equities: • Staged diversification strategy over multiple years to spread out tax liability • Completion portfolio using other assets to complement/complete the concentrated position • Equity monetization by hedging a large part of the risk in the position using derivatives and then borrow using the hedged position as collateral • Zero-cost collars are used to lower initial cost by giving up some stock upside. The put premium paid and call premium received are equal. • Covered call writing is possibly a staged diversification assuming the share price appreciates sufficiently • Exchange fund with a pooling of investments on a tax-free basis continued on next page... PRIVATE WEALTH continued... • Charitable remainder trust to benefit both beneficiaries and a designated charity Strategies for managing concentrated positions in privately owned businesses: • IPO • Direct sale to another investor • Sale of non-essential business assets • Personal line of credit secured by company shares (owner borrows from company or from a thirdparty lender) • Leveraged recapitalization (e.g., private equity firm) • Sale to employee stock ownership plan SS12: INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS Stakeholders and key elements of the IPS for defined benefit (DB) pension plans vs. defined contribution (DC) pension plans: Stakeholders Liabilities Lifetime Gifts vs. Testamentary Bequests Basic form of the relative value (RV) ratio: FV after-tax to the receiver if gifted now / FV after-tax to the receiver if bequested at death: Two tax scenarios to consider: • The gift now is tax free to both the receiver and the donor • The gift is taxable with tax paid by the receiver Relevant tax factors to consider: • rg and tg are the pretax return earned and the applicable tax rate on those earnings for assets held by the gift receiver • re and te are the pretax return earned and the applicable tax rate on those earnings for assets held by the gift giver • Te is the estate tax rate and would be paid from the estate • Tg is the gift tax rate and is assumed to be paid by the receiver FVgift = [1 + rg(1 – tg)]n FVbequest = [1 + re(1 – te)]n(1 – Te) • RV of a tax-free gift, Tg = 0 n • RVTax Free Gift = Liquidity needs External constraints 1 + r 1 − t g( g ) FVGift = FVBequest 1 + re (1 − t e ) n (1 − Te ) • RV of a taxable gift, Tg paid by receiver • RVTaxable Gift = Investment time horizon n 1 + r 1 − t g( g ) (1 − Tg ) FVGift = FVBequest 1 + re (1 − t e ) n (1 − Te ) RISK MANAGEMENT FOR I­ NDIVIDUALS • Total wealth is composed of both human capital (HC) and financial capital (FC). HC is the discounted present value of expected future labor income. FC is the sum of all the other assets of an individual. • Net wealth is the sum of the individual’s FC and HC less any liabilities owed by the individual. • The economic (holistic) balance sheet extends the traditional balance sheet assets to include HC. Liabilities can also be extended to include consumption and bequest goals. • Earnings risk: Use disability income insurance. • Premature death risk: Use life insurance. • Longevity risk of living too long: Use annuities. • Property risk: Loss in value of physical property (FC). Use property insurance (homeowner’s and automobile). • Liability risk: If legally responsible for damages. Use liability insurance. • Health risk: Direct loss of FC to pay illness or injury related expenses and may reduce HC. Use health and medical insurance. Asset allocation based on investor’s total economic wealth, FC and HC: • Individual employed in a high risk profession would choose lower risk FC. • If HC is positively correlated with the stock market then best to select asset classes other than equity for risky assets used. • Avoid FC tied directly to employer. Investment objectives DB Plan Employers, plan beneficiaries, investment staff, investment committee/ board, governments, shareholders Present value of future benefits promised to plan participants. Higher when: • Employees work longer • Salaries are higher • Participants live longer • Lower employee turnover leads to higher vesting • Discount rate is low Longer if proportion of active lives is higher Higher with: • More retired lives • Older workforce • Higher funded status (may reduce contributions) • Flexibility of participants to switch plans • Regulations vary by country: IORP II in Europe, ERISA in U.S. • Tax treatment favorable • Accounting rules: ASC 715 requires funded status to be shown on balance sheet (U.S. GAAP); public pension plans follow GASB Achieve a long-term target return over a specified horizon with appropriate risk to meet contractual liabilities. DC Plan Employers, plan beneficiaries, investment staff, investment committee/ board, governments No liability to plan sponsor once required contribution to plan has been met Dependent on the age of participant: longer if younger Higher with: • Older workforce • Flexibility of participants to switch plans • Regulations vary by country: IORP II in Europe, ERISA in U.S. • Sponsor must offer appropriate default option to disengaged participants • Plans are tax deferred Prudently grow assets to meet spending needs in retirement. Stakeholders and key elements of the IPS for university endowments and private foundations: University Endowments Private Foundations Stakeholders Current and future Founding family, donors, students, alumni, grant recipients and university employees broader community, governments Liabilities Set by the future U.S. tax rules require spending promised to the minimum spending university. of 5% of assets plus Spending policy should investment expenses. consider (1) ongoing Must also spend donations, (2) reliance donations in the same of university on year they are received. spending, (3) ability to issue debt. Spending may use a spending rule which takes a weighted average of last period’s spending adjusted for inflation and a fixed spending rate applied to average AUM. Investment Perpetual Typically perpetual, but time horizon shortened for limited-life foundations Liquidity The spending rate net of Higher than needs donations is very low at endowments—legally 2%–4% of assets. required to spend 5% of assets. Reliance on spending by foundation is usually higher than the reliance of a university on endowment spending. External Typically tax exempt. Regulation varies by constraints jurisdiction but generally requires a total return approach and prudence in investing (UPMIFA in U.S., The Trustee Act in the U.K.). Investment Generate a total real Generate a real return objectives return after inflation over consumer price measure by the HEPI inflation of the spending of about 5% on a rate (minimum 5%) plus 3–5 year rolling basis, investment expenses on with reasonable annual a 3–5 year rolling basis, volatility in the range of with reasonable annual 10%–15% volatility in the range of 10%–15% Stakeholders and key elements of the IPS for banks and insurers: Stakeholders Stakeholders and key elements of the IPS for the five types of sovereign wealth funds (SWF): Budget Stabiliza- DevelopPension tion ment Savings Reserve Reserve StakeCountry’s citizens, the government, external and interholders nal investment management Liabilities Uncertain: Linked to Spending Yield Future linked to socio-eco- on future prompension commod- nomic genera- ised on Payments ity prices/ investtions central economic ments bank/ cycle government bonds InvestShort term Long/me- Long Long Long ment dium term term term term time dependent horizon on investment projects Liquidity Highest Generally Lowest Interme- Varies: low needs low diate during accumulation stage, higher during decumulation stage External Established by national legislation. Best practice set by conISWF’s Santiago Principles. straints Generally tax exempt. InvestCapital Real Maintain Grow Earn ment ob- preserva- growth real faster returns jectives tion higher perpetual than to meet than real spending yield on future GDP central unfunded growth bank/ governgovern- ment ment pension bonds payments Liabilities Investment time horizon Liquidity needs External constraints Investment objectives Banks External: shareholder, depositors, borrowers, creditors, credit ratings agencies, regulators, and communities Internal: employees, management, and board Primarily deposits which are short term Insurers External: shareholders, policyholders, derivatives counterparties, creditors, regulators, credit ratings agencies Internal: employees, management, and board Life insurers: long duration contract payouts P&C insurers: shorter and less certain contract payouts While perpetual organizations, investments are run on a short/medium term LDI basis. Driven by deposit Varies by product withdrawals and line—P&C liquidity potential need to raise needs generally higher liquidity in adverse than life. Liquidity market conditions. needs will increase Regulators apply in times of high liquidity coverage ratios interest rates due and net stable funding to policyholders ratios. surrendering in search of high yields elsewhere. Highly regulated due to importance to real economy and systemic risk, particularly SIFIs. Main goal of regulators is to ensure the institution holds sufficient risk-based capital to absorb losses. Three different types of accounting systems apply: 1. Standard financial reporting (GAAP or IFRS) 2. Statutory accounting for regulators (more conservative than financial reporting) 3. True economic accounting (marked-tomarket) Banks and insurers are fully taxable. Manage liquidity and risk mismatches between the institution’s non-investment assets and liabilities. This needs to be done in the context of the institution’s overall profit maximization objective. SS13: TRADING, PERFORMANCE EVALUATION, AND MANAGER SELECTION Implementation shortfall (IS) at the highest level the absolute value is: IS = paper return – actual return IS can be decomposed into the following parts: • Execution cost occurs due to executing shares at a less favorable price than the original decision price. Execution cost can be further broken down into: Delay cost occurs due to adverse price movements in the time between the portfolio manager submits the order to the trader and the time the trader releases the order to the market. For a buy order: delay cost = shares executed × (arrival price – decision price) Decision price = price when manager decides to buy (or sell). Arrival price = price when the order is placed by trader. Trading cost: due to the market impact of executing the trade. Trading cost = shares executed × (average purchase price – arrival price) • Opportunity cost is the cost of not trading any unfilled part of the order. The paper portfolio assumes that all shares are executed immediately at the original decision price. The actual trade may have only filled part of the order and the lost profit on the unfilled portion is the opportunity cost. For a buy order: Opportunity cost = portion of order not filled × (closing price – decision price) • Fixed fees are any explicit commissions or fees incurred in executing the trade. Fixed fees = shares executed × commission per share Total IS value ($) = delay cost + trading cost + opportunity cost + fixed fees All of the components of and total IS can be expressed in terms of basis points (bps) of the original cost of the paper portfolio. A basis point is 1/100th of one percent. A decimal number is multiplied by 10,000 to convert it to basis points. Trade costs represent costs relative to the benchmark, a positive value represents underperformance: Absolute cost ($) = side × (execution price – benchmark price) × shares executed Trade cost (bps) = side × (execution price − benchmark price) benchmark price ×10, 000 where: side = +1 for a buy order, –1 for a sell order Market-adjusted cost is used to remove the impact of market movements on trade cost which ensures a trader is not penalized or rewarded for general market movements over the trade horizon. index cost (bps) = (index VWAP − index arrival price) side × ×100, 000 index arrival price Market-adjusted cost (bps) = arrival cost (bps) – β × index cost (bps) where: arrival cost is the arrival cost of the trade based on an arrival price benchmark β = beta of the security vs. the index used to calculate index cost Added value is a different method of trade cost analysis comparing the arrival cost of the trade with the estimated pre-trade cost. Added value (bps) = arrival cost (bps) – estimated pre-trade cost (bps) A negative cost is a benefit—the trader has added value through their trading decisions. Micro Attribution vs. Macro Attribution • Micro attribution analyzes the portfolio at the portfolio manager’s level. • Macro attribution analyzes investment decisions at the fund sponsor’s level. Returns-Based, Holdings-Based, and Transactions-Based Attribution • Returns-based attribution uses regressions to analyze the portfolio returns over time and isolates the asset class components through indices that would have generated these returns. • Holdings-based attribution uses beginning-of-period portfolio assets. • Transactions-based attribution updates the beginning-of-period holdings-based attribution for any subsequent trades. Brinson-Fachler and Brinson, Hood, Beebower (BHB) models quantify the portfolio returns into three attribution effects: allocation effect, security selection effect, and the interaction effect. • Allocation effect refers to the portfolio manager’s decision to overweight or underweight specific sector weightings versus the benchmark. Using the Brinson-Fachler model, the contribution to the ith sector is equal to the portfolio’s sector weight minus the benchmark’s sector weight, times the benchmark sector return minus the overall benchmark return: Ai = (wi – Wi)(Bi – B). For the BHB model, the contribution to the ith sector is equal to the portfolio’s sector weight minus the benchmark’s sector weight, times the benchmark sector return: Ai = (wi – Wi)Bi • Security selection is the portfolio manager’s value added by selecting individual securities (stock picking) within the sector and weighting the portfolio differently compared to the benchmark’s weightings. The contribution to selection in the ith sector is equal to the benchmark sec­tor weight times the portfolio’s sector return minus the benchmark’s sector return: Si = Wi(Ri – Bi) • Interaction effect is a residual amount (e.g., plug) that ensures the arithmetic return minus the relative benchmark is fully accounted for in attribution analysis. The contribution to the ith sector is equal to the portfolio sector weight minus the benchmark sector weight, times the portfolio sector return minus the benchmark sector return: Ii = (wi – Wi)(Ri – Bi) Carhart model is a fundamental factor model calculating the excess return from active management decisions by determining the impact on the portfolio due to the following factors: (1) market index (RMRF), (2) market-capitalization (SMB), (3) book-value-to-price (HML), and (4) momentum (WML): Rp – Rf = ap + bp1RMRF + bp2SMB + bp3HML + bp4WML + Ep Benchmark quality of a portfolio return can be broken up into three components: market, style, and active management. P=M+S+A where: P = investment manager’s portfolio return M = return on the market index S = B − M = excess return to style; difference between the manager’s style index (benchmark) return and the market return (S can be positive or negative) A = P − B = active return; difference between the manager’s overall portfolio return and the style benchmark return Performance Appraisal Sharpe ratio SA = R A − rf σA Treynor ratio TA = R A − rf βA Information ratio is used to measure a portfolio’s performance against the benchmark accounting for differences in risk. IR = E (rp ) − E (rB ) σ (rp − rB ) Appraisal ratio is calculated as alpha divided by the standard deviation of the residual/unsystematic risk (the standard error of regression). α AR = σε Sortino ratio only considers the standard deviation of the downside risk where rT refers to the minimum acceptable return (MAR) and (σD) refers to target semistandard deviation. SR D = E (rp ) − rt σD Capture ratios determine the manager’s relative performance when markets are up or down. Capture is calculated as portfolio return divided by benchmark return. The capture ratio is calculated as upside capture divided by downside capture. Type I and II errors in hiring managers and continuation decisions • Null hypothesis (H0) is that there is no value added. • Type I error is when the null hypothesis is rejected when in fact there was no value added. • Type II error is when the null hypothesis is not rejected when in fact there was value added. SS14: CASES IN PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT AND RISK MANAGEMENT • Review the SchweserNotesTM and/or the SchweserNotes Videos. SS15 & 16: ETHICS (INCLUDING GIPS) ISBN: 978-1-0788-1807-0 9 781078 818070 Revised July 2021 © 2021 Kaplan, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Review the SchweserNotesTM and/or SchweserNotes Videos and questions in the SchweserNotes™, CFA® text, and SchweserPro™.