Definition of economic growth Economic growth involves increasing the total output produced by resources in an economy. It is therefore measured by an increase in the real GDP of an economy. How economies grow Demand for increased living standards means many governments have a macroeconomic objective to improve their long-term rate of economic growth. Economists measure the rate of economic growth by how much the real GDP has increased each year in an economy. 1 The discovery of more natural resources The discovery of gas and oil has given a number of countries the ability to grow rapidly. Indeed, the discovery of more natural resources, including mineral deposits, such as coat and iron ore or even new varieties of fruit or cereals, can help any economy to increase output. Searching for new natural resources, however, costs a lot of money and some countries, particularly those in the developing world, tack the funds to do this. 2 Investment in new capital and infrastructure Investment by private sector firms involves spending on capital goods such as new machinery, buildings and technology so that they can expand their scale of production, lower their average costs and produce more goods and services in the future. Similarly, investments in modem infrastructure such as road networks, airports and ports by governments can improve access and communications to expand the productive potential of the economy. By lowering interest rates, a government can make it less costly for private sector firms to borrow money for investment. 3 Technical progress New inventions and production processes can increase the productivity of existing resources and produce new materials and products. Technical progress is a major driver of economic growth. Technological advances made in one industrial sector can often 'spill over' into other sectors. For example, fibre-glass was originally invented for use as insulation material but is now used in the production of bows and crossbows, roofing panels, automobile and aircraft bodies, surfboards, artificial limbs and many more products. Similarly, the internet is based on a system originally developed by the US Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency to enable communications between military computers to withstand nuclear attack. Governments can support investments in the research and development (R&D) of new products and processes, either directly through public funding of firms and universities or by providing tax breaks for firms that undertake R&D. They can also encourage R&D by protecting new inventions from copy or theft through the issue of patents. 4 Increasing the quantity and quality of human resources A larger and more productive work force can boost economic growth. Education and training are often called 'investments in human capital' and will help create a better skilled, knowledgeable and more productive workforce. Improvements in healthcare and medicines can also improve the health and productivity of the workforce and reduce the number of days they are sick and unproductive. Expanding the work force may require policies to encourage more people into work, for example cutting income taxes and unemployment benefits, and increasing the age at which people can retire and receive a pension from the government. The working population of a country can also be expanded through the inward migration of skilled labour and, in the longer term, through an increase in the birth rate. 5 Reallocating resources An inefficient allocation of resources will constrain economic growth. Moving resources from less productive uses to more productive uses will boost output and growth. Similarly, moving some resources from the production of consumer goods and services into the production of capital goods will help increase the productive potential of an economy. Causes and consequences of recession The rate of economic growth is a measure of how quickly or slowly real output rises over time. For example, in 2017 real output in India grew rapidly by 7.3%. In comparison, the US economy grew by only around 2.6% over the same period. The rate of economic growth in an economy, like any economic variable, can vary over time but while it remains above zero that economy will continue to expand: real output will be increasing each year. A fall in the growth rate, say from 5% to 2% each year, will mean real output is rising more slowly than in the past. In contrast, an increase in the growth rate of an economy, from say 5% to 7% each year means its real output is expanding at a faster rate than in the past. However, economies can sometime experience periods of negative growth or falling real GDP during: an economic recession involving a relatively short period of negative growth that may only fast for six months or, in some cases, a year or more after which the economy recovers and continues to grow once again; an economic depression or stump which may last several years during which there is a continuous and substantial fall in real GDP. What is the economic cycle? Most governments want to achieve long-term stable economic growth in the real GDP of their economies. Plotted on a graph over time this should look like a steadily rising line. However, in practice the annual rate of growth in real GDP often varies considerably in the short run and may even turn negative during an economic recession. The business cycle or economic cycle refers to the pattern of recurrent ups and downs (or cyclical fluctuations) observed in real GDP growth over time in many economies. Most economies go through a fairly predictable economic cycle of changes in their rate of economic growth every 5-10 years, some more severe than others. Typically, an economy passes through four distinct phases during one complete economic cycle: • Growth Economic activity is expanding rapidly. Many firms enjoy increased safes and profits. New business organizations are formed. Output, incomes and employment are all growing. • Economic boom Aggregate demand, sales and profits peak. There may be rapid inflation as prices rise quickly because demand exceeds the amount of goods and services firms can produce and supply. The economy 'overheats'. Shortages of materials, parts and equipment will increase business costs. There is a shortage of labour. Unemployment is low and wages rise as firms compete to employ skilled workers. The government may raise interest rates to control rising inflation. Consumer confidence and spending may begin to decline as inflation and interest rates rise. • Economic recession There is a general slowdown in economic activity. Demand for many goods and services begins to fall. Sales and profits decline. Firms cut back their production and workers are made redundant. Unemployment rises and incomes start to fall, causing consumer spending to fall further. As a result, economic growth turns negative. That is, the economy begins to shrink as economic activity falls • Economic recovery Business and consumer confidence starts to recover. Spending on goods and services begins to rise. Safes and profits begin to rise. Firms increase their output and employ more workers. New businesses are formed. Unemployment falls and incomes rise, boosting consumer spending further. The economy starts to expand again. Consequences of economic growth Sustained economic growth can bring widespread benefits to an economy, its people, firms and government, for example: • greater availability of goods and services to satisfy consumers' needs and wants • increased employment opportunities and incomes • increased sales and profits, and increased business opportunities • low and stable price inflation, if growth in output matches growth in demand • increasing tax revenues for a government, that can be invested in more and better roads, schools, healthcare, crime prevention and other merit goods and public services • improved living standards and economic welfare. However, economic growth need not improve the quality of life for everyone. While some people may become rich, many others may remain poor and have a low standard of living. The distribution of income and wealth in many countries is very unequal and may become more so if the benefits of growth are concentrated among relatively few people. In addition, economic growth can have other negative impacts: • Technical progress may replace workers with machines so more people become unemployed for long periods of time. • Growth might only be achieved by producing more capital goods at the expense of consumer goods. However, are people necessarily better off if growth is achieved, for example, by producing more weapons, cigarettes or coat-fired power stations? Equally, are people better off simply because they have more cars, televisions and computer games? • Economic growth may mean we use up scarce resources at a faster rate. Oil, coat, metals and other natural resources are limited and may soon run out. Forests may be cut down and green space used up at an increasing rate to build more houses, roads, factories, offices and shops. • Increasing production and energy use may increase noise, air, water and scenic pollution. Marine and wildlife habitats may be destroyed killing many creatures and plants. People may also suffer from more health problems as a result. Economic growth can therefore involve a significant opportunity cost in terms of its social and environmental impacts. Because of this, governments around the world are increasingly focused on achieving sustainable growth. Sustainable economic growth involves reducing the rate at which we use up natural resources, reducing waste in production and consumption and reducing harmful emissions by changing the way we produce and consume goods and services. Policies to promote economic growth Government policies to promote economic growth will focus on: • • boosting total demand during an economic recession; trying to increase total supply by improving long run growth in factor productivity so that factors of production are able to produce more total output. Demand-side policies Using fiscal and monetary policy instruments to boost total demand will be important during an economic recession or slump in demand. • A government may boos total demand by cutting direct taxes and increasing public expenditures. Lower- income tax will increase disposable income and encourage consumer spending. Increased spending on welfare payments will also encourage consumer spending while increased spending on capital projects such as new road constructions will help create new jobs by increasing business and household incomes. • Monetary policy may also be used to reduce interest rates to encourage higher levels of borrowing and therefore spending in the economy. If lower interest rates fail to boost demand, the government may also instruct the central bank to use measures such as quantitative easing to increase the money supply in the economy. However, boosting total demand during an economic recession will do very tittle to expand the productive potential of the economy and its rate of long run growth. This requires supplyside policies. Supply-side policies Supply-side policies are required to reduce or remove barriers that may prevent improvements in productivity and the productive capacity of the economy. Measures designed to achieve this include: • Investing in improvements to education and training, to increase the skills, knowledge and mobility of the current and future workforce; • Supporting investments in the research and development (R&D) of new, innovative products, technologies, production processes and materials that can be used to produce more and better goods and services; • Public investments in modernizing existing and building new economic infrastructure, such as new power generation and distribution systems, mobile and broadband communications networks, roads, airports and ports, all of which will directly benefit many firms, the process of production and the movement of people, goods and services within an economy; • Giving tax cuts and subsidies to new firms to encourage people to start new businesses; • Encouraging multinationals to locate and invest in the economy thereby boosting output and providing additional jobs; • Plus other measures aimed at improving resource efficiency including privatization, deregulation, towering income taxes to improve work incentives and labour market reforms. The main problem with supply-side policies is that they can take a considerable time to work. For example, major infrastructure projects often take many years to build and it may also take several years for investments in education to lead to higher labour productivity. Such investments also tend to be very expensive. A government may have to increase taxes and/or its borrowing to pay for them. Both actions are likely to reduce or crowd out private sector spending. Unless there is sufficient demand in an economy for their goods and services, firms will be reluctant to increase production and set up new businesses.