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Demographic Reporting on Afghan Refugees in
Pakistan
Nancy Hatch Dupree
Modern Asian Studies / Volume 22 / Issue 04 / October 1988, pp 845 - 865
DOI: 10.1017/S0026749X00015766, Published online: 28 November 2008
Link to this article: http://journals.cambridge.org/
abstract_S0026749X00015766
How to cite this article:
Nancy Hatch Dupree (1988). Demographic Reporting on Afghan Refugees in
Pakistan. Modern Asian Studies, 22, pp 845-865 doi:10.1017/
S0026749X00015766
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Modern Asian Studies 82, 4 (1988), pp. 845-865. Printed in Great Britain.
Demographic Reporting
on Afghan Refugees in Pakistan
NANCY HATCH DUPREE
Duke University
After seven years, the care-and-maintenance network sustaining an
estimated three million plus Afghan refugees in Pakistan functions with
remarkable efficiency. There have been no epidemics, no starvation,
little malnutrition because of insufficient intake of food, and no major
outbreaks of violence.
Such stability encourages the introduction of relief substitution
programmes. In addition, the protracted stay of the refugees has
recently induced most of Pakistan's opposition parties to politicize the
refugee issue. As a consequence, multi-tiered projects which will
benefit the areas where the refugees are located as well as improve the
quality of refugee life are being implemented in order to ease both the
political and the economic 'burden' of the refugee presence.
These efforts underscore the international community's concern
over how long it can bear the present estimated one million US$ a day
being spent on the refugees. International aid appears to be dwindling.
Is this because of'donor fatigue'? Have the tragedies in Africa reduced
interest in the Afghan cause? Even if sufficient income can be generated
to achieve 50-80% self-reliance, would it be politically feasible to cut
down on present services? Will increased refugee self-reliance
aggravate Pakistan's unemployment problems? Are the Afghans
becoming attitudinally dependent on handouts? What changes in
Afghan culture are occurring? These are important questions, but there
are too few data to formulate intelligent answers. No one really knows.
This discussion summarizes the most important available studies in
the fields of health, education and relief substitution. It should be kept
in mind, however, that these studies are typically limited to specific
The author wishes to express her gratitude to the Ford Foundation (Grant no. 8350118), the Universities Field Staff International, and the American Institute of
Pakistan Studies for their support of the project which made this research possible.
oo26-74gX/88/$5.oo + .00
© 1988 Cambridge University Press
845
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NANCY HATCH DUPREE
projects within designated, usually limited, geographic areas. Some are
excellent, but more comprehensive, standardized, systematically collected baseline data are needed if future programmes are to be
intelligently planned and dynamically implemented.
Background
Population Distribution. The major Afghan refugee flow began in April
1978. In April 1979, the Government of Pakistan (GOP) requested
assistance from the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees
(UNHCR). On 20 October 1979, the Director General of the Food and
Agriculture Organization (FAO) approved a six-month supply of food
for an estimated 185,000 beneficiaries; by mid-January 1980, the
number had jumped to 500,000; by late-April, to 700,000."
Upon the insistence of the UNHCR, the GOP moved the bulk of the
refugees away from border areas and set up Refugee Tented Villages
(RTVs),2 which in 1986 numbered about 350. They are scattered along
a 2,400 km/1,500 mile arc across three provinces: the North-West
Frontier Province (NWFP), with roughly 72% of the registered
population; Baluchistan, with 24%; and Mianwali District, Punjab
Province, with 4%—and growing (see map).
Mianwali was opened in December 1982 after refugee saturation in
the NWFP became intolerable. The location is highly unpopular with
the refugees, however, and the NWFP reopened for registration in mid1984. Pressure on local resources continues to be a major problem. In
early 1986, for instance, it was announced that three RTVs in Dir, with
a population of 17,000, were to be transferred to Mianwali.3
Thus, fluctuations frequently occur, but the main patterns continue:
registration is limited to these three provinces and each refugee must be
registered in one of the officially designated RTVs before he/she is
entitled to rations and other relief assistance.
Settlement Patterns. The GOP organization table states that individual
RTVs may not exceed populations of 10,000, or approximately 1,500
' E. von S c h u h , First Semi Annual Report Covering the Period up to 30th June ig8o
(Islamabad: World Food Programme (WFP/FAO) in-house report, 1980), p.2.
2
Officially entitled by the GOP. Many families (an estimated 60%) have constructed mud-brick housing, but the RTV designation emphasizes the assumed temporary
status of the refugees which is politically important.
3
Afghan Refugee Information Network (London: 77 Chelverton Road), AR1N, XXI
(March/April 1986), p. 11.
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DEMOGRAPHIC REPORTING ON AFGHAN REFUGEES
847
Chitral
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Provincial Boundaries
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Fig. 1. Registered Afghan refugees in Pakistan, June 1987.
Source: Chief Commissionerate Afghan Refugees, Islamabad, Map drawn by Ahmad
Wali Sultani.
families (an average of 6.6 members per family, but families with more
than nine members arc recorded). RTVs with populations of 30,000
registered persons do exist, however. In addition, contiguous RTVs,
which began as small separate encampments of kin-related families
have melded to form settlements covering vast areas. Nasirbagh,
outside Peshawar, capital of the NWFP, for instance, covers 32 square
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848
NANCY HATCH DUPREE
kilometres. Each RTV, whatever its size, has an administrative centre;
refugee-owned and operated bazaar shops usually flourish in the
vicinity.
No barriers surround the RTVs and refugees are permitted to move
freely throughout Pakistan. Some move seasonally to take advantage of
agriculturally-related work opportunities. Others move seasonally
across the border to farm in the 'free' areas of Afghanistan.
Density Ratios. Density ratios between local/refugee populations are
generally estimated at 6:1, but rise in some areas to 1:1, and occasionally even 1:2.
Ethnic Composition. Except for the Kirghiz, all of Afghanistan's myriad
ethnic groups 4 are represented, rural (95%), urban, and seminomadic. The entire Kirghiz refugee population (1,130) was included
in the approximately 4,500 Turkic-speaking Afghan refugees resettled
in Turkey in 1982. In Pakistan, the Pushtun dominate, being approximately 94% of the population in 1984. Recently, non-Pushtun from
northern Afghanistan are arriving in ever-increasing numbers.
Age/Sex Distribution. Official GOP statistics from the NWFP report that
45.69% of the population are children under 15; 28.9% adult females
and 25.41% adult males, who are described in GOP reports as being
'mostly old men.' In Baluchistan, 5 1 % are reported to be children
under 15; 26% female adults; 23% male adults.
Population Size. All of the above ratios and percentages have been
gleaned from inadequate data, even though much effort has been
expended on quantitative enumerations and countless reenumerations.
Only general patterns can be discerned from these figures. The count
varies widely—from two to over three million—based on different
objectives pursued by interested parties. In addition to this registered
population there are over 150,000 awaiting registration. An estimated
40% of those who arrived in 1985 are unregistered; some still wait after
three years. In addition, an uncounted number (variously estimated
from 130,000 to 200,000) living in cities do not qualify for registration
and are not entitled to rations and other assistance.5
4
Louis Dupree, Afghanistan (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1980), pp. 55-6N. H. Dupree, T h e Demography of Afghan Refugees in Pakistan,' in Hafeez Malik
(ed.), Soviet-American Relations With Pakistan, Iran and Afghanistan (London: Macmillan
Publishing Co., 1986). This chapter contains fuller discussions of the background
3
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DEMOGRAPHIC REPORTING ON AFGHAN REFUGEES
849
Furthermore, the population continues to grow in response to the
war inside Afghanistan and the Kabul regime's policy of 'migratory
genocide.'6 The Commissioner for Afghan Refugees/NWFP reported
in October 1985 that 20,000 refugees had arrived during the previous
two months—a five-fold increase reflecting Soviet summer offensives.
Similar increases were reported during the offensives at Zhwar in the
summer of 1986.
Current Assessments
In addition to the GOP/UNHCR assistance programmes, some forty
(or more; no two lists are identical) voluntary organizations
(VOLAGs) from many nations, including Pakistan and Afghans in
exile, have established refugee assistance programmes in Pakistan.7
Inter-governmental and non-governmental organizations (NGOs)
channel substantial funds through these Pakistani-based VOLAGs
which have proved their expertise. Numbers of organizations carry out
special programmes under contract to UNHCR. Specialized agencies
within the United Nations system have assisted UNHCR since the
initiation of the Afghan refugee assistance programme in Pakistan
(April 1979). In short, the range of assistance is far-reaching and in
spite of concern, 'donor fatigue' seems not to be an overly serious factor
because worldwide commitment to the Afghan cause continues strong.
Most agencies have demonstrated their ability to reach designated
goals, but as goals broaden and expenses soar they look for new
directions. All would benefit from more accurate baseline assessments
of the populations they seek to assist. A few have conducted systematic
surveys designed to enhance their programmes. Fewer have attempted
broader investigations. Periodic 'quickie' surveys are often conducted
within a matter of a month—or less—by experts with no prior contact
with Afghanistan or its culture. Too often the purpose is to advance,
change direction of, or debunk programmes so as to advance vested
interests. These 'overviews' nonetheless tend to influence headquarters
policy planning.
The results of most of this information gathering are either classified
material summarized in this article, as well as information on pre-exodus demographic
reporting.
ti
The term 'migratory genocide' was first used by L. Dupree in 'First Anniversary of
Afghan Invasion,' Los Angeles Times (29 December 1980).
' X. H. Dupree, 'The VOLAG Explosion', Afghanistan Forum, XIII, no. 6 (New
York: 201 E. 71st St, 2K), pp. 25-8.
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NANCY HATCH DUPREE
in-house documents or unpublished. Some agencies do report meticulously on their activities and share this information. Most are less
generous.
Health
Most reporting on the prevalence of specific diseases comes from clinics
operating in the RTVs. No standardized data collection system is used.
Major ailments (circa 79% by some reports), include diarrhoea/
dysentery (of gravest concern), fevers, upper respiratory infections,
measles, malaria, eye and skin diseases. Recent reporting indicates a
disturbing increase in emotionally disturbed patients.8
Tuberculosis has been a major focus of attention because estimates of
prevalence rates range from 4% to 8%, and even much higher.
Haphazard screening in the early stages of the exodus and a failure to
distinguish between positive skin tests and cases actively transmitting
the disease account for much alarmist talk. People seem content to say
that TB, like malaria, is endemic among the Afghan refugees.
Nutrition has also received major attention because of its connection
with food assistance which is monitored by the UN's World Food
Program (WFP). Two specialized surveys were undertaken in 1982,
one in Baluchistan and one in the NWFP.
The ig82 UNRISD Baluchistan Report. The Baluchistan survey was
fielded by the United Nations Research Institute for Social Development (UNRISD) and UNHCR. It is one of the few published reports:
Hanne Christensen, Sustaining Afghan Refugees in Pakistan—Report on the
Food Situation and Related Social Aspects (Geneva: UNRISD Report no.
83-3, '983)-9
During three and a half weeks (August-September 1982) 150
families were interviewed in three RTVs in Chagai District, the
remotest and least hospitable area of Baluchistan Province. Official
records listed approximately 7,135 refugee families (42,813 individuals)
in the area at the time of the survey, but grossly inflated population
figures characterize Baluchistan's reporting. Some claim the actual
count is closer to 50% of that reported. The sample may well include
8
International Rescue Committee, Annual Report (Peshawar: IRC, 1984), p. 4;
Mohammad Azam Dadfar, M.D., 'Refugee Syndrome,' (Peshawar: WUFA (Writers
Union of Free Afghanistan), I, no. 2 (January/March 1986), pp. 61-75.
9
Palais des Nations, 1211 Geneva 10, Switzerland.
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DEMOGRAPHIC REPORTING ON AFGHAN REFUGEES
85I
more than the indicated 2% as a result. The survey estimated 62% of
the population was under age 15.
The purpose of this survey was to assess the social aspects of the food
situation and suggest guidelines for future options. Among its conclusions, the survey found that although the Afghans are dependent on
donated food, every household had found sources of income which were
used primarily for enhancing their food situation: i.e., a self-reliance
process had been initiated.
However, it was also found that food distribution was linked to social
status and political alignments within the ethnic power structure, so
that about 10-15% of the sample were highly vulnerable with respect
to survival. The fact that distribution of food items other than wheat is
frequently much in arrears was not discussed.
Particularly, it was found that women were often adversely affected
by changes forced upon them by the refugee environment. The report
called for discriminatory programmes in favour of women. It also
recommended annual data collections by female monitors.
The 1982-1983 UNHCR Surveys. In September 1982 a GOP/UNHCR/
AUSTCARE (Australians Care for Refugees) survey by two women
nutritionists explored the Nutrition Status and Socio-economic Factors
Relating to Therapy and Morbidity in Kohat District, NWFP Province
(Peshawar: UNHCR in-house report by Marie Sardie and Mamoona
Taskinud-Din, 1982). It included a random sampling of 437 families
(3,121 individuals; an average of 7.1 per family), or 3% of the refugee
families living in Kohat District. Its goal was to determine patterns and
establish guidelines for a more complete survey of the NWFP.
Among other observations, this report found that ills such as
anaemia were not caused by shortages in the diet, but were due to
malabsorption resulting from parasite infections, such as diarrhoea/
gastrointestinal diseases, TB and other enervating ailments. Again, the
recommendations stressed involving refugee women in preventive care
programmes, particularly eating and weaning practices, hygiene and
sanitation. It also proposed that periodic in-depth studies of the status
of refugee health be undertaken.
'
The in-depth follow-up survey was carried out by the same team
from January through June 1983 in four districts/agencies of the
NWFP (Bajaur, Dir, Ismail Khan, Mansehra, Chitral). The in-house
interim report Nutrition Status, Socio-economic Factors Relating Therapy and
Morbidity was submitted in February 1984. It contains information for a
total of 1,852 households, or 3% of the total population, and takes
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NANCY H A T C H DUPREE
cognisance of differences among ethnic groups. These included seminomadic and non-nomadic Pushtun, Turkoman, Tajik and Nuristani/
Kohistani. Demographic and socio-economic information was
included since these factors cannot be isolated from health/nutrition
baselines for future planning.
The survey corroborated inflated population statistics, reporting
that 33% of the households were over-registered. The political leadership was surmised to be benefiting from the malpractices connected
with multiple registrations, leaving 84% of the households surveyed in
poor to very poor condition. Confirming a Pushtun majority (95%), the
report stated that only 29% are semi-nomadic. This nicely counters the
Kabul regime's contention that there are no true refugees in Pakistan,
and their accusation that the GOP is blocking the traditional movement of Afghan nomads who have been accustomed to crossing over the
border in both directions during seasonal migrations for centuries.
As to age and sex ratios, the following was reported:
Ages o - 5, 22.5% with 98 males to 100 females
5-15, 34.5% with 82:100
15-45,36% with 88:100
over 45, 7% with 260:100
Stating that 33% of the sample had access to the minimum requirement of nutrients set by WHO to sustain health, the report also found
that 5% of the infants under 5 suffered from 3rd degree malnutrition
and that there was an infant mortality rate of 236:1,000 live births.
Without better nutrition planning, it was proposed, dietetic deficiencies, compounded by the above mentioned diseases, would
increase. The report stressed, however, that accurate figures are
difficult to obtain from non-literate populations unaccustomed to
keeping records, or even remembering exact birth and death rates. It
again emphasized the need for better socio-economic background data
before policy planning can be meaningful.
In the Kohat survey it was reported that 87% of the families had at
least one earning member and that 66% earned Rs 200-600/- (US$
16-48) per month. At this time the GOP estimated the absolute poverty
level for rural Pakistanis at US$M5O.
In the later, larger survey, it was found that 40% of the males in the
sample did not work. In addition, only 10% of the households with
working males earning incomes of at least Rs 600/-could be considered
even partially self-reliant. For the 14% earning Rs 100-250/-, no
noticeable improvement in the quality of living was evident. In all,
therefore, 54% of the households were without viable incomes for self-
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DEMOGRAPHIC REPORTING ON AFGHAN REFUGEES
853
reliance. The supposition that supplementary foods could be purchased with outside incomes was held to be untenable.
The statistics indicating an over-45 male:female ratio of 260:100
compared to an overall male:female ratio of 95:100, an infant mortality
rate of 236:1,000 live births, and a 5% incidence of 3rd degree
malnutrition suggested a much greater degree of infant wastage and
maternal mortality than was suspected. This disturbed many, since
much emphasis had been given to maternal and child health during the
previous year. Some officials, therefore, criticized the validity of the
findings.
The ig84 Centers for Disease Control Survey. As a result, the Centers for
Disease Control (CDA; Atlanta, Georgia, USA) was requested to conduct a quick survey of infant mortality rates and nutritional status
in the NWFP, Baluchistan and the Punjab. This was undertaken in
April/May 1984. At this time the survey estimated the infant mortality
rate was 146:1,000 live births, the maternal mortality rate at
112:100,000, and the acute under-nutrition status at 2.4%.10 The
survey was repeated in 1985. Because of its high international standing
and long-tested methodology, many are confident that the CDA has
obtained reliable data. They are also encouraged by the fact that the
feasibility of reliable data-collection has been demonstrated. However,
others feel that adequate standards specifically tailored to the Afghan
refugee situation have yet to be established.
Relying upon subject recall, as these surveys have, leads to many
traps in all situations. This is particularly true among populations such
as the Afghan refugees who are traditionally disdainful of data collectors. Afghans have time and again proved they are experts in withholding or falsifying responses so as to minimize suspected extractions or
maximize expected benefits. Ideally, observational studies should be
initiated as well.
The ig83 FAO Survey. If subject recall surveys have their drawbacks,
those dependent on interviews with officialdom are manifestly misleading: Even before the results of the UNHCR/NWFP 1983 survey were
submitted, contradictory information was obtained from an FAO (UN
Food and Agriculture Organization)-sponsored survey (OctoberNovember 1983) to identify the nutritional status of the refugee
population (Islamabad: WFP in-house report, 1983). This survey was
10
Personal communication.
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NANCY HATCH DUPREE
based on briefings in Rome, consultation with officials (primarily male)
in Islamabad, Peshawar (NWFP) and Quetta (Baluchistan), and short
visits to three selected RTVs. Contact with Afghan refugees was
minimal and superficial.
This report recrjmmended the establishment of monitoring systems
to define the future nutritional status of the refugees through bi-annual
surveys of large samples. It also suggested reductions in food aid since
wide varieties of food are available in the RTV bazaars and 60-80% of
Afghan refugees are employed. Consequently 'the nutrition status of
refugees, health conditions and basic socio-economic infrastructure
have improved considerably'. No baseline data was provided to substantiate these statements. The other surveys refuted them.
Whatever the individual merits of current surveys, it is obvious that
there is a need for more effective standardized health-care reporting
systems. Freedom Medicine, a recently established VOLAG in the
NWFP, will attempt this.
The fact that there have been no epidemics is commendable, but
there is no room for complacency. In addition, both the systems
developed now and the information collected now will be useful in
future programming on the hoped-for return of the refugees to
Afghanistan. A noble goal.
Education
Health Education. The nutritional surveys emphasized the importance of
education for improving the health and nutritional status of the Afghan
refugees and specifically recommended involving women in health
education projects. By the time these surveys were taken, however,
several VOLAGs, particularly the Austrian Relief Committee (ARC),
the International Rescue Committee (IRC) and Save the Children
Fund (U.K.), had already moved into health education at their
Mother-Child-Health (MCH) clinics. Training programmes for primary health workers, community health workers, and dai (midwives),
had also been initiated. The dai have dispelled the belief that Afghan
refugee women are incapable of service and all the women participating
in these programmes are spreading the word that better health practices can be as beneficial as pills and injections. Such attitudinal
changes will have long-lasting effects for generations to come.
An ambitious Primary Health Care (PHC) programme for the
NWFP was initiated in 1983 by the Save the Children Fund (UK) with
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DEMOGRAPHIC REPORTING ON AFGHAN REFUGEES
855
UNHCR/UNICEF funding. A similar PHC programme is being
designed (1986) by IRC for the Kohat area. Much valuable information from these sources could be utilized for devising a standardized
data-collection system.
In February 1986 IRC established a Health Education Resource
Center to produce and/or adapt health education materials. It acts as a
liaison between VOLAGs, Pakistani and international institutions,
gathers and exchanges materials, and will produce a semi-annual
resource bibliography. This is a significant development in interorganization cooperation.
Formal Education. The state of formal education for the Afghan refugees
floats in a vacuum in which 'the need' is perceived by many, but the
'what and how to do' are, at best, nebulously defined. The subject of
'the correct path' is hotly debated. Approximately 35% of the refugee
children are of school age, with a male:female ratio of 82:100. Primary
education for boys has been provided since 1979 when the first RTVs
were established, but there is a dramatic drop in male enrolments
between grades one and six. The reasons have yet to be determined.
Perhaps parents look upon the schools as day-care centres for the
youngest who are taken out as soon as they are old enough to work.
Conservative families refer to schools as breeding grounds for the
communistic ideas that led to the current situation in their homeland.
Boys beg to join the jihad (war in Afghanistan) as soon as possible.
In addition, many of the schools are less than inspiring. Too many of
the buildings are dilapidated, teachers are poorly qualified and often
there are no textbooks, copybooks, slates, pens or blackboards. The
GOP/UNHCR offer some incentives, such as uniforms, but the experts
contend that it is impossible to determine why parents choose not to
send their children to school unless a major survey utilizing sophisticated methodology is taken.
Until recently it was assumed that the legendary ferocity with which
Afghan males protect the honour of their women would preclude
projects for women." Indeed, during the early days even the mere
mention of education for girls was anathema. These negative attitudes
have cooled, but the number of girls enrolled is pitiful and puberty
signals the end of school for most.
The future of teenage girls and young women living in the urban
areas is cruelly bleak. In pre-coup Afghanistan increasing numbers of
11
N. H. Dupree, 'Women Among the Afghan Refugees,' Afghanistan Forum, XII, no.
2 (March 1984), pp. 15-17.
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NANCY HATCH DUPREE
urban girls took an education for granted and looked forward to a
variety of career opportunities.12 These young women now face the ire
of ultra-conservative religious leaders who seek to curtail their activities outside the home. Only a few with courage and family support
attend Pakistani schools.
Improving primary and secondary education for both men and
women is being given a high priority by a number of assistance
programmes. In cooperation with others, the Development Center for
Afghan Education (the education section of IRC established in 1985) is
designing curricula, upgrading high-school teachers of science and
mathematics, writing textbooks and training printers to produce the
textbooks. English-language instruction is provided for men and
women. An institution to accommodate boys whose educations have
been aborted on the university level is under consideration, as are plans
for expanding female education beyond primary levels. Long-overdue
identification of skilled refugee professionals who are needed to
implement these projects is being made. Although studies in all these
areas are in their infancy, many valuable data are being accumulated.
Income-Generation
Exile has forced many Afghan refugees to modify ideals concerning role
and status. Most are from the rural areas. To till the land and be selfreliant in providing well-being for a family is a matter of pride; a symbol
of identity, self-respect and esteem. The Pushtun, particularly,
generally look on trade and service as less desirable occupations.
And yet, about the only restraint the GOP places on the refugees is to
prohibit them from owning land and farming, except in minor ways on
government lands, or where they are able to make arrangements with
local landowners. Many, but not all, have successfully revised, if but
temporarily, their views on respectable pursuits and have entered
many new fields of occupations.
For those who have not been able to make this transition, idleness
and a sense of loss of purpose combine to create a predisposition toward
dependency which threatens to demoralize a people long lauded for
12
N. H. Dupree, 'Revolutionary Rhetoric and Afghan Women,' in M. Nazif
Shahrani and R. L. Canfield (eds), Revolutions and Rebellions in Afghanistan: Anthropological Perspectives (Berkeley: Institute of International Studies, University of California,
•984). PP- 3 o6 ~4°-
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DEMOGRAPHIC REPORTING ON AFGHAN REFUGEES
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their self-reliance. Dependency attitudes are insidious, and because
they can so easily become an attitudinal habit, they jeopardize the very
essence of Afghan culture.
In all fairness, it must be noted that such attitudes are most
noticeable in the 'fashionable' RTVs frequently visited by foreigners
dispensing 'freebees' in the spirit of Lady Bountiful—whether for
political merit, or simply to assuage consciences. Thousands of rupee
notes and other commodities are distributed indiscriminately, and only
fools would fail to take advantage of such handouts and seek more from
the next visitor. Outsiders must, therefore, share in the blame for these
manifestations of dependency.
Several surveys to assess potential income-generation projects have
been fielded. Goals differ, but three main objectives remain constant.
Firstly, to examine the potential. Secondly, to promote skills which,
while generating extra income now, will establish a basis for
Afghanistan's future development. Thirdly, to contribute to the
development of the Pakistani areas in which the refugees reside.
The ig82-ig86 World Bank Project. In April 1982, the World Bank and
UNHCR formally initiated a 3-year project designed to provide
income-generating activities for Afghan refugees through labour-intensive projects which would also benefit areas adversely affected by the
refugees and their large herds of livestock (an estimated three million
animals). The components targeted reforestation and watershed
management and the rehabilitation and/or upgrading of roads and
irrigation systems. Seventy percent of the labour is supplied by Afghan
refugees, but local Pakistanis also derive benefits from participation in
these schemes. Labour costs total 62% of the estimated US$20 million
to be expended by the project which isfinancedby donor contributions
and administered by the World Bank.
Consistent with standard World Bank practices, meticulous
feasibility studies were taken in cooperation with the provincial line
departments which are responsible for implementation. Beyond
ascertaining the availability of Afghan labour, however, few data
regarding the refugees were sought. The UNHCR conducts periodic
surveys to assess the extent of Afghan employment and average wage
earnings. The Bank also undertakes regular reviews of technical and
financial aspects. Because of the careful monitoring this project has
won international acclaim as a model for other nations seeking to
integrate refugee aid with host-nation development. Although this
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project collects limited types of demographic information, several
aspects of its successful monitoring system could be of interest to the
architects of data-collection systems.
The ig82 ILO Report. Also in 1982 (November), an ILO (United Nations
International Labour Organization) mission funded by the Government of the Netherlands, the UNHCR, and the ILO conducted a
survey to examine the potential for long-term self-reliance projects to
lessen the burden of care-and-maintenance on the GOP and the
international community. Their report is published: Tradition and
Dynamism Among Afghan Refugees—A Report on Income-Generating Activities
for Afghan Refugees in Pakistan, ILO, Geneva, 1983. It is a general
overview based on information from officials, RTV leaders, VOLAG
representatives, and visits to six refugee areas in Baluchistan, eight in
NWFP.
Drawing upon observations and UNHCR's 1982 nutrition and skills
surveys in the NWFP, the mission concluded that although the refugees
participated in a wide range of economic activities, there was a high
rate of underemployment. This appeared to be due in part to limited
markets, lack of appropriate tools, and poor quality merchandise, often
arising from the unavailability of quality raw materials.
The recommendations in this report stressed supplementary training and upgrading of traditional skills for production-oriented projects,
with particular emphasis on refugee-related products such as quilts,
clothing, stoves and kitchen utensils, and housing construction-related
needs, It also suggested that production should be linked wherever
possible to GOP development projects, including industry. Further
study of production organization and market outlets was recommended.
No specifics were suggested. Means, goals and personnel selection
were left in a no-data limbo.
The ig8j Danish Refugee Council Survey. Concern for the need to involve
women in meaningful activities prompted a study undertaken in the
NWFP from November 1982 through May 1983 by Inger W. Boesen,
supported by the Danish Refugee Council,13 in cooperation with the
Austrian Relief Committee. Her report is entitled Towards the SelfReliance of Afghan Refugees?—A Study of the Need and Feasibility of Establishing Income-Generating and Skill-Training Programmes for Afghan Refugees in
13
Danish Refugee Council, 4, Kronprinessegade, P.O.B. 53, DK-1002 Copenhagen
K.
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DEMOGRAPHIC REPORTING ON AFGHAN REFUGEES
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Pakistan, Particularly with a View to Women (August 1983). Ms. Boesen is
fluent in Pashto and has the added advantage of having carried out field
research in pre-exodus Afghanistan (1977-78). Access to refugee
homes and close rapport was consequently greatly facilitated. In
addition, the in-depth survey concentrated on one camp, Baghicha
(Mardan District, NWFP), with a population of about 12,000 (ca.
1,580 families). Intensive interviews, observations and informal conversations were conducted in about 500 households (32%) selected by
random sampling. No formal questionnaire was used, but the interviews were structured to obtain comparable information from each
household.
In evaluating the standards of living, the report describes the
physical layout of the RTV in detail. In reporting social interactions
between the various tribal groups, the report suggests there is a
growing perception of unity and solidarity—i.e., of being Afghan—in
contrast to pre-exodus divisive factors which emphasized tribal over
national affiliations. Some social practices regarding women have been
strengthened; others are changing. For instance, the practice of keeping
widows within the family is stronger, even to a wider insistence on the
levirate according to which a widow is married to her deceased
husband's brother. Multiple marriages seemed to be declining. Shifts
in attitudes toward marriage customs were also noted. In some groups
exchanges of girls between families are now considered to be more
honourable than exchanges for bridewealth.
As the title indicates, however, the purpose of the survey was to
identify income-generating projects, especially among women, in order
to provide possibilities for greater self-support and thereby militate
against debilitating attitudes of dependency. A seven-week pilot handicraft project for women was carried out to test the many assumptions
used to discourage such programmes. The response was enthusiastically positive. Participants represented all ages and all tribal groups,
and it was found that participation by younger women was as
dependent on the permission of elder women as it was on male
members of the families, who were generally supportive.
The 1984 UNRISD NWFP Report. The second evaluation by UNRISD,
supported by UNHCR, is also published: Hanne Christensen, Afghan
Refugees in Pakistan: From Emergency Towards Self-Reliance (Geneva:
UNRISD Report no. 84.2, 1984).
This survey was carried out over a three-week psriod (SeptemberOctober 1983) primarily in two RTVs in the NWFP: Barawal (Dir
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District) with a population of 7,300, and Orakzai (Orakzai Tribal
Agency) with 14,500 registered in two RTVs. About 100 households
were interviewed in depth. In addition to examining the socioeconomic situation, the report also comments on the capacity of the
refugees to achieve self-reliance and their interactions with Pakistanis.
All the sampled households were engaged in income-generating
activities, normally by a single male worker. In Dir, 5% of the men
were self-employed, 5% were employed in the RTV administration
system, 10% unskilled and semi-skilled labourers were also employed
on refugee-related projects, and about 80% were engaged by Pakistanis
for agricultural, animal husbandry or construction jobs. In Orakzai,
10% were self-employed, 10% were engaged in trading and transportation, 10% were employed in RTV administration, 30% worked in
construction, and 40% were labourers on Pakistani farms. These
occupations generated four categories of income:
Rs
500- 600: labour (90% in Dir; 80% in Orakzai)
Rs 1,000-1,500: self-employed (5% in Dir; 15% in Orakzai)
Rs 2,500:
administration (5% in Dir; o in Orakzai)
Rs 12,000:
specialists (o in Dir; 5% in Orakzai)
The bulk of the sample, therefore, received insufficient income to
survive without aid. Furthermore, it was observed that because of their
commitment to the jihad (the resistance war inside Afghanistan) there
was little interest in expanding employment beyond a single male
member per family. Not noted was the fact that male members most
commonly take turns participating in the jihad, spending several
months inside Afghanistan before returning to Pakistan. The sacrifice
of income is nothing compared to the satisfaction of serving the cause of
freedom.
In light of these differences in income, the report recommended that
relief operations be adjusted in a flexible manner to cut down on relief
while continuing full aid for vulnerable groups, particularly new
arrivals. It also insisted that during any phasing out period, incomegenerating activities (relief substitution) initiated by the refugees be
facilitated, particularly if they compliment Pakistan's development
sector.
Most importantly, the report stated: 'It is imperative that such
programmes be designed with the cooperation of the refugees and
specific activities undertaken at their request. . . keeping in mind that
the most successful development schemes tend to have their origins in
the voluntary participation of target groups.' (p. 69)
In May 1986 UNRISD conducted a third survey in the NWFP,
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Punjab and Baluchistan. The results are awaited. Justification for
reducing food rations and involving the refugees in more communityfinanced endeavours is apparently still being sought.
On-going Skills Survey. In addition to providing vocational training in
construction, carpentry, plumbing, electricity, shoemaking, weaving,
tailoring, and carpet making, there are concerted efforts being made to
identify and assist skilled Afghans, an estimated 10% of the refugee
population. The most ambitious project in this field is Assistance to
Skilled Afghan Refugees in the NWFP (ASAR) which is being carried
out by the Austrian Relief Committee with funds from UNHCR. Since
the initiation of their work with the Afghan refugees in Pakistan
(September 1980), the directors of ARC have held firmly to the
philosophy that the best solution to problems concerning the Afghans is
to help them help themselves. Accordingly, after identifying skilled
workers, ASAR provides them with 60-80% of their tools and equipment and provides them with capital to either establish or extend
businesses. Careful monitoring is a hallmark of this project.
ASAR is an extension of a previous pioneer project in skills development. After a study of market needs (June 1983), ARC opened the
Multi-Purpose Technical Training Workshop, a one-year course
taught by ex-professors from Kabul University. It emphasizes character building while providing instruction in auto-engineering, electricity, physics, geometry, maths, English and theology.
Marketing Survey. Increased production, by both skilled and newlytrained, introduces the problem of marketing, a long-neglected component now being tackled by the Ockenden Venture (UK). A marketing survey was conducted in prepartion for the December 1985 opening
of a sales depot for Afghan-made goods in Peshawar which has proven
to be very successful.
Relief-Substitution Surveys. There are some who worry about the small
numbers of beneficiaries involved in these projects. They consider talk
of self-reliance economically, socially and politically unrealistic. Yet
the expected long-term stay and soaring financial burden on all
concerned demand that some relief substitutions be found. To this end
even projects on a grand scale are being reviewed. These include
training hospitals, truck farms, dairy livestock breeding and industrial
estates. In addition to complimenting Pakistan's development sector, it
is projected that these types of assistance would provide income and
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training. For instance, since the refugees are presently prohibited from
substantive private farming because this would compromise their
temporary status as refugees, how will the children learn how to survive
should they return?
To assess the feasibility of these larger projects, UNHCR has
engaged NESPAK (National Engineering Services/Pakistan), a
Karachi-based private firm with over i ,000 professionals, to evaluate
the impact of projects on both the refugees and Afghan-Pakistan
relations.
In sum, many data are being accumulated, but coordinated and
systematic recording is still lacking.
The Pakistani Dimension
In spite of the demographic pressures caused by the Afghan refugee
influx, the Government of Pakistan under President Zia ul-Haq has
remained steadfast in its commitment to provide safe haven for their
beleaguered neighbours. It is uncertain what the fate of the Afghan
refugees would have been if a government of politicians had been in
control when this tragedy errupted. Since the end of Martial Law on 1
January 1986, numbers of Pakistani politicians have called for the
immediate withdrawal of all assistance to the refugees, the recognition
of the Kabul regime, and the herding of the refugees back across the
border—to no matter how uncertain a future.
The politicization of the refugee problem exploits a sense of fatigue
which is becoming increasingly acute in Pakistan, although the GOP
will deny this. This fatigue is expressed in many negative attitudes
which arise, in good part, from a fear of being overwhelmed, not only by
the sheer mass of refugees, but by the entire 'Afghan Predicament', as it
is sometimes termed by Pakistanis.
Legitimate anxieties are exacerbated by faulty, biased reporting
which becomes increasingly exaggerated the farther one moves away
from areas of large refugee concentrations. Reporters/columnists/
politicians from urban centres such as Karachi, Lahore, and
Islamabad are able to bandy about figures and assumptions with
impunity because there are no reliable facts to refute them. This is a
serious failing.
Then, there are the many who are convinced the refugees will never
go home. Most Afghans, they say, are buying land and shops and
competing unfairly in a surplus labour market. Those who heed these
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DEMOGRAPHIC REPORTING ON AFGHAN REFUGEES
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accusations naturally fear for their own security. Such perceptions also
give rise to the contention that the 'Afghans have never had it so good' 14
and that they are decidedly better off than many Pakistanis. This is
cause for unrest.
Those who hold that the Afghans intend to become permanent
residents also recount episodes from history. Empires ruled by
dynasties originating in the Afghan area have encompassed much of
what is now Pakistan. Thus, many Pakistanis see the Afghans as a
'swaggering, armed, aggressive lot' 15 and aver that the Afghans see
themselves as conquering heroes waiting to repeat the exploits of their
forefathers.
Indeed, the social organization in the RTVs projects strength. The
Afghans generally live in kin-related groupings. Sometimes entire
villages settle together. Shifts in roles and power structures do take
place, but the essential social and cultural institutions appear to
continue. This cohesiveness intensifies the impression that the Afghans
could establish themselves should the opportunity to return be denied
them.
The 'refugee burden' is another favourite topic. The intolerable
financial burden of the monthly cash allowances the GOP is pledged to
pay is frequently cited (a claimed US$ 135 million for 1984-85). The
fact that refugee families rarely receive these cash payments is conveniently overlooked.
Furthermore, none of these attitudes take into account the numbers
of refugee-oriented schemes benefiting local populations living in the
vicinity of the RTVs. Most would not have been implemented as
promptly without the pfesence of the refugees. Several expensive
water-supply systems in both Baluchistan and the NWFP fall into this
category.
Nor do critics see fit to mention some of the benefits the Pakistani
economy derives from the presence of the refugees.
Upwards of 11,000 bureaucratic jobs have been created. Much
capital is fed into the economy as local Pakistani manufacturers
scramble unabashedly after monies cascading from the coffers of
voluntary aid organizations and lucrative UNHCR contracts.
Numerous newly established Pakistani/Afghan business partnerships
(not a new phenomenon) undoubtedly will be maintained even should
14
Hafeez Malik, 'The Afghan Crisis and its Impact on Pakistan,' Jour, of South Asian
and Middle Eastern Studies, V, no. 3 (Spring 1982), pp. 40-52.
15
Akbar S. Ahmed, 'Afghan Refugees: An Assessment,' mss. (Islamabad, 1984),
p. 1.
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the Afghans return to Afghanistan. These links will provide long-range
political, as well as economic, assets for the area as a whole.
This is not to minimize the assistance provided by the GOP. It bears
the costs for all internal transport of refugee aid (projected at US$70
million in 1984-85), and a heavy administration/security responsibility. The ecology is being ravaged. Because individual Pakistanis
tend to accentuate these negative aspects, balanced reporting based on
more accurate data is required to dispel apprehensions before they
erupt into violence.
The potential for violence exists, and is not to be discounted. 1986
has seen an alarming escalation in the number of bomb explosions in
public sectors of Peshawar; trains and buses have been mined
throughout the NWFP. All have resulted in both Afghan and Pakistani
casualties. Many Pakistanis openly blame the Afghan refugees for these
blasts and a citizen's Peshawar Action Committee has been formed
which advocates that refugees be denied access to Peshawar and free
movement outside the RTVs.16
On the other hand, Islamic and leftist Pakistani parties blame each
other for the blasts.17 Also, in the bomb debris of Jandola bridge in
South Waziristan, pamphlets released by 'the secret movement of free
tribesmen' held the refugees responsible for the erosion of the
independent status of the tribal agencies and demanded that the
Afghans quit the tribal areas.18 The Kabul regime has been abetting
Pakistani tribal dissidents in demanding the ouster of Afghans from
tribal areas since their holding of a High Jirgah of Frontier Tribes in
Kabul on 14 September 1985.19
Although positive proof as to who is responsible for these acts of
terrorism is lacking, the hand of Kabul's KHAD (Afghan KGB) and/
or their dissident Pakistani tribal surrogates is suspect. Fear breeds
violence. On 22 June 1986 when a bomb exploded in Peshawar's
crowded old city, the police were hard pressed to protect two Afghan
suspects from an enraged crowd.20 Such incidents indicate the breaking
point is dangerously near.
16
'Bomb blast,' The Muslim (Islamabad: 23 June 1986), p. 8.
'J. I. [Jamaat-e-Islami] accuses NDP [National Democratic Party] and PNP
[Pakistan National Party] of bomb blasts,' and, 'NDP leader hits back at Jamaat,' The
Muslim (21 June 1986), p. 1.
18
'Bid to blow up Jandola bridge,' The Muslim (19 June 1986), p. 8.
19
For an example of the rhetoric, see 'Frontier Pashtoons, Baluchis hail High
Jirgah,' Kabul New Times (Kabul: 24 October 1985), p. 1.
y
° 'Bomb blast injures 21 in Peshawar,' The Muslim (23 June 1986), p. 1.
17
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DEMOGRAPHIC REPORTING ON AFGHAN REFUGEES
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Conclusions21
The socio-economic fabric of the Afghan refugee population in
Pakistan needs to be more thoroughly scrutinized in order to:
1) design culturally compatible projects furthering relief substitution, training and area development;
2) diminish demoralizing dependency attitudes;
3) defuse negative Pakistani attitudes before they erupt into serious
violence.
21
A continuation of the patterns begun in this article was published by L. and
N. H. Dupree. 'Afghan Refugees in Pakistan,' in World Refugee Survey ig8y (Washington,
D.C.: United States Committee for Refugees, 1988).
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