Chapter 1: An Overview of Financial Management Learning Objectives: Recall the 3 basic ways businesses are organized Discuss the advantages and disadvantages of each type of business organization Understand what is double taxation Understand that the goal of financial management is to maximize shareholder’s wealth Explain and discuss the links between stock prices, intrinsic values, and market equilibrium Discuss the conflicts between managers and shareholders and the various techniques firms can use to mitigate the conflicts Forms of Business Organization Form Proprietorship (Unincorporated business owned by one individual) Partnership (Unincorporated business owned by two or more persons) Corporation (Incorporated business owned by many shareholders) Limited Liability Company/Partnership (Hybrid between partnership and corporation) Advantages Easily and inexpensively formed Subject to few government regulations Subject to lower income taxes than corporations No corporate income tax Easy transfer of ownership Unlimited life Limited liability - Only lose what they invest Ease of raising capital Limited liability like corporations Taxed like partnerships Votes in proportion of their ownership interest Disadvantages Unlimited personal liability Limited life of business Difficult to raise capital Cost of set-up and report filing Double taxation (U.S.) - Corporation’s earnings taxed - Dividend earnings taxed again as personal income Still evolving. Requires hiring of a (good) lawyer when establishing Balancing Shareholder Value and the Interest of Society Financial Management: How companies conduct their business in order to maximize its value Management’s primary goal: Shareholder Wealth Maximization (i.e. maximizing intrinsic value) Decisions should be made to maximize the long-run value of the firm’s common stock (cash flow) vs Proprietor’s goal to maximize his own interest Not inconsistent with being socially responsible Corporation focuses on creating shareholder value Unresponsive to employee and customers + Hostile to community + Indifferent to effects on environment Hard to retain & recruit top-notch employees + Products boycotted + Face additional lawsuits + Confronted with negative publicity Reduction in shareholder’s value Maximize firm’s expected profits ≠ Maximize shareholder’s wealth Managers can use accounting manipulations to maximize profits, which has no effect on the real cash flow of the company Managers can seek to cut expenses (such as R&D), which maximizes current year profits but jeopardizes future survivability of the company Intrinsic values, Stock Prices An estimate of the “true” value based on the best available information (accurate risk and return data) + Long Run Concept Can be estimated, but not measured precisely Intrinsic Value Changes when there’s new information Investors try to estimate the intrinsic value and may come up with different estimates Depends on firm’s future performance Set by marginal investor based on perceived value of the stock Stock Prices Information that they have may be inaccurate Depends on demand and supply in the market At market equilibrium, intrinsic value = stock price. Equilibrium is where investors are indifferent between buying and selling the stock Ideally, managers should avoid actions that reduces intrinsic value, even if it increases stock price in the short run The difference is what makes the transactions occur Effective communication is required to keep intrinsic prices and actual prices close Market price > Intrinsic Value Overvalued Not good to buy; may sell Market Price < Intrinsic Value Undervalued Good to buy Market Price = Intrinsic Value Market equilibrium No tendency to buy/sell Important Business Trends Increased Globalization of Business Ever-Improving Information Technology Corporate Governance - Developments in communications technology Allows company to have branches/operations in other countries Increases income (e.g. IBM generates more than half of their sales & income overseas) Spurs globalization Firms collect massive amount of data and use it for financial decisions (e.g. considering and predicting results of a potential site for business) Top managers operate and interface with stockholders Active investors who control huge pools of capital (hedge funds and private equity groups) are constantly looking for underperforming firms; and they quickly pounce on laggards, take control, and replace managers Business Ethics Company’s attitude and conduct toward its employees, customers, community, and stockholders Most firms have strong written codes of ethical behaviors + Conduct training programs to ensure that employees understand proper behavior in different situations When conflicts arise involving profits and ethics, the right choice isn’t always clear Conflicts between Managers, Stockholders, and Bondholders Managers vs Stockholders: Agency Problems Stockholders vs Bondholders Managers inclined to act in their own best interests (which is not always the same as the interest of stockholders) E.g. Managers pay themselves excessive salaries Solving Agency Problems: Reward managers based on long-run intrinsic value of the company stock, not the stock’s price on an option exercise data i.e. Options should be phased in over a number of years Managers have the incentive to keep stock price high over time Compensation must be based on stock’s market price because intrinsic value is not observable Reasonable Price used should be an average over time compensation Some managers paid via stocks packages - Not the best solution - Managers could receive stock on a set date, sell it and make profit. Once profit is based on stock price on the exercised date, it may lead to managers trying to increase stock price on that specific date and not in the long run. (e.g. Projects with good long-term perspectives rejected because it penalizes profit and lower stock prices on the option exercise date) Direct Majority of stocks owned by institutional investors, who have the intervention by clout to exercise considerable influence over firms’ operations shareholders If firm’s stock is undervalued, corporate raiders may see it as a bargain and attempt to capture the firm in a hostile takeover. If raid is successful, target’s executive is likely to be managers Threat of hostile Incentive for managers to maintain stock price. takeovers - Corporate raiders: Individuals who target a corporation for take-over because it is undervalued - Hostile takeover: Acquisition of a company over the opposition of its management Firing managers who don’t perform well Bondholders: Generally receives fixed payments regardless of how well the company does Stockholders: Do better when the company does better Problems: 1) When taking on risky projects that may result in bankruptcy 2) Usage of additional debt More debt a firm use, the riskier the firm Chapter 5: Time Value of Money Learning Objectives: Explain how time value of money works and why it is important in Finance Calculate the present value (PV) and future value (FV) of: - A lump sum - Annuity - Uneven cash flow stream - Perpetuity (only for PV) Differentiate between annuity due and ordinary annuity Explain the difference between nominal, periodic, and effective interest rates - Understand how to compare alternative investments with different compounding periods Understand loan amortization and able to calculate the relevant outputs (e.g. payments, principal outstanding) - Construct a loan amortization schedule Time Value of Money Idea that money available today is worth more than the same amount in future because we can invest the money Short Forms Meaning PV Present value, or beginning amount FVN Future value, or ending amount CF Cash flow I Interest rate earned per year INT Dollars earned during the year = Beginning amount x I N Number of periods Future Value (FV) Methods Formula Calculator Finding FV from a cash flow or PV is called compounding 𝐹𝑉𝑁 = 𝑃𝑉 (1 + 𝐼)𝑁 𝐹𝑉1 = 𝑃𝑟𝑖𝑛𝑐𝑖𝑝𝑎𝑙 + 𝐼𝑛𝑡𝑒𝑟𝑒𝑠𝑡 = 𝑃𝑉 + 𝑃𝑉(𝐼) = 𝑃𝑉 (1 + 𝐼) Key in N, I/YR, PV, PMT = 0 Solve for FV (Press “Alpha” + “Enter”) Present Value (PV) Methods Finding PV is called discounting Formula 𝑃𝑉 = Calculator 𝐹𝑉𝑁 (1+𝐼)𝑁 ; 𝑃𝑉 = 𝐶𝐹1 (1+𝐼)1 𝐶𝐹 𝐶𝐹 𝐶𝐹 2 𝑁 𝑡 ∑𝑁 + (1+𝐼) 𝑡=1 (1+𝐼)𝑡 2 + ⋯ + (1+𝐼)𝑁 = Key in N, I/YR, FV, PMT = 0 Solve for PV (Press “Alpha” + “Enter”) Annuities & Perpetuities Annuities: Series of equal cash flows for fixed intervals for a specified number of periods Perpetuities: An annuity that lasts forever Cash flows occur at the end of the periods Calculator set to “End” mode 𝑃𝑀𝑇 𝐹𝑉 = [(1 + 𝐼 )𝑁 − 1] Solving for FV Ordinary Annuity 𝐼 𝑃𝑀𝑇 1 Solving for PV 𝑃𝑉 = [1 − ] 𝐼 (1 + 𝐼)𝑁 Cash flow occur at the beginning of period Calculator set to “Begin” mode Annuity Due Solving for FV 𝐹𝑉𝐴𝑑𝑢𝑒 = 𝐹𝑉𝐴𝑜𝑟𝑑 (1 + 𝐼) Solving for PV 𝑃𝑉𝐴𝑑𝑢𝑒 = 𝑃𝑉𝐴𝑜𝑟𝑑 (1 + 𝐼) Perpetuity Solving for PV 𝑃𝑀𝑇 𝐼 1 Because as N ∞, [1 − (1+𝐼)𝑁] 1 𝑃𝑉 = Uneven Cash Flows PMT (Payment) CF (Cash Flow) Finding PV of Unequal CF Finding FV of Unequal CF Finding Rate of Return (I/R) Equal cash flows at regular intervals Not part of an annuity Methods: 1. Step-by-Step discounting 2. Calculator: Use NPV Function - NPV (Rate, Initial outlay, {CF1, CF2, …, CFN}, {Cash flow counts}) - Rate: 10% key in as “10” - No spacing Method: Step-by-Step Method: Use IRR Function - IRR (PV, {CF1, CF2, …, CFN}) - E.g. IRR(-7250,{750,1000,850,6250}) - No spacing Semiannual and Other Compounding Periods Annual Periodic Rate Stated Annual Rate Number of Periods PV/FV Number of Years Semiannual 𝑆𝑡𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑑 𝐴𝑛𝑛𝑢𝑎𝑙 𝑅𝑎𝑡𝑒 𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑃𝑎𝑦𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑠 𝑝𝑒𝑟 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟 (𝑖. 𝑒. 2) (Number of Years)(Periods per year, i.e. 2) No Change Comparing Interest Rates Nominal Interest Rate (INOM) Periodic Rate (IPER) Effective Annual Rate (EAR = EFF%) Also called the quoted or stated rate Annual rate, ignores compounding effects - Assume INOM is interest rate per year Periods must also be given Unless otherwise stated, INOM always given Amount of interest charged each period 𝐼 𝐼𝑃𝐸𝑅 = 𝑁𝑂𝑀 ; where M = number of compounding periods per year 𝑀 Actual annual rate of interest, accounting for compounding 𝐼 𝐸𝐹𝐹% = [1 + 𝑁𝑂𝑀 ]𝑀 − 1 𝑀 Using GC, go to “Finance” and “C”. Insert (Nominal rate, Compounding periods) Important to consider EFF% because: - Investments with different compounding intervals provide different effective returns - Allows comparison of investments with different compounding intervals Amortized Loans Loan that is repaid in equal payments over its life Outstanding Loan Principal = PV of all remaining payments Interest paid declines with each payment as the balance declines Constructing loan amortization schedule 𝑃𝑀𝑇 1 [1 − (1+𝐼)𝑁] 𝐼 Step 1: Find the Required Annual Payment 𝑃𝑉 = Using GC, FV = 0 because the reason for making payments if to retire the loan PMT = Principal + Interest Step 2: Find the Interest Paid in Year 1 Step 3: Find the Principal Repaid in Year 1 Step 4: Find the Ending Balance after Year 1 𝐼𝑁𝑇𝑡 = (𝐵𝑒𝑔 𝐵𝑎𝑙𝑡 )(𝐼) i.e. Replace t with 1 Principal = PMT – INT End Bal = Beg Bal – Prin Constructing a Table Repeat steps 1 to 4 until end of loan Year Beg Bal PMT 1 2 Total - INT Prin End Bal - Chapter 2: Financial Markets and Institutions (except 2.7) Chapter 3: Financial Statements, Cash Flow, and Taxes (except 3.7, 3.8) Chapter 7: Interest Rates (except 7.6) Learning Objectives: Identify the different types of financial markets and financial institutions and explain how these markets and institutions enhance capital allocation List each of the key financial statements and identify the information they provide Understand the different in tax treatment for dividends and interest expense List the various factors that influence the interest rates Understand the term structure of interest Explain what the yield curve is and what determines its shape Capital Allocation Process In a well-functioning economy, capital flows efficiently from suppliers to demanders Suppliers: Individuals or Institutions with “excess funds”. In return, they are looking for a rate of return. Demanders: Those who need to “raise funds”. Willing to pay a rate of return. - Without going through any financial institutions Direct Transfer - Usually used by small firms - Little capital is raised Indirect Transfers through - Investment banks are the intermediate (middleman) Transferring of Investment Capital Bankers Indirect - Capital made through a financial intermediary (such as a bank of Transfers mutual funds) through a - E.g. Saver deposits money into the bank & receives interests. Bank Financial lends the money to business. Intermediary Financial Markets A financial market is where individuals and organizations wanting to borrow funds are brought together with those having a surplus of funds i.e. A market place where buyers and sellers trade debt instruments (such as bonds) and equity instruments (such as stocks), and also other assets Bonds: Promises a fixed dollar amount for every period Stocks: Gives uncertain dividend for every period Physical: Tangible/Real, for products such as wheat, autos, real estate Physical assets vs Financial assets Financial: Stocks, bonds, notes, mortgages Spot: Assets are bought or sold for “on-the-spot” delivery Spot markets vs Futures markets Future: Participants agree today to buy or sell an asset at some future date Money: Markets for short-term, highly liquid debt securities (generally less than 1 year) Money markets vs Capital markets Capital: Markets for intermediate- or long-term debt and corporate stocks Primary: Markets in which corporations raise capital by issuing new securities Primary markets vs Secondary: Markets in which existing, already outstanding securities are traded among Secondary markets investors, i.e. Listed shares (shares that are already in the market) Private: Transactions are negotiated directly between two parties Private markets vs Public markets Public: Standardized contracts are traded on organized exchanges Financial Institutions Provides services for firm’s capital raising Efficient and easier for large firms to raise capital through financial institutions Regulated to ensure the safety of these institutions and to protect investors (except hedge funds and private equity companies) Types of financial institutions: Traditional “department store of finance” Commercial banks Serves a variety of savers and borrowers Underwrites and distributes new investment securities Investment banks Helps businesses obtain financing Financial services A firm that offers a wide range of financial services, including investment banking, corporations brokerage operations, insurance, and commercial banking Cooperative associations where members have a common bond Credit unions E.g. employees of same firm Retirement plans funded by corporations or government agencies for their workers Pension funds Invests primarily in bonds, stocks, mortgages and real estate Life insurance Invests annual premiums collected companies Organization that pool investor funds to purchase financial instruments Mutual funds Reduces risk through diversification Exchange traded Similar to mutual funds funds Operated by mutual fund companies Similar to mutual funds Hedge funds But typically have large minimum investments, and marketed primarily to go institutions and individuals with high net worth Private equity Similar to hedge funds companies But buys and manage entire firms instead of stocks The Stock Market Most active secondary market Most important to financial managers - Prices of firms’ stocks established - Knowledge of stock market is important to managing a business Physical - i.e. NYSE, American Stock Exchange Location - Formal organizations having tangible physical locations that Exchange conduct auction markets in designated (“listed”) securities - i.e. Nasdaq Types of Market - Over-the-Counter Market: A large collection of brokers and Procedures Electronic dealers, connected electronically by telephones and computers, Dealer-based that provides trading in unlisted securities Markets - Dealer Market: Includes all facilities required to conduct security transactions not conducted on the physical location exchanges The Market for Common Stock Closely Held Corporations Publicly Owned Corporations Type of Stock Market Transactions Corporation owned by a few individuals who are typically associated to a firm’s management Stocks called: Closely held stocks Corporation that is owned by a large number of individuals not actively involved in firm’s management Publicly held stock 1. Outstanding shares of established publicly owned companies that are traded: the secondary market 2. Additional shares sold by established publicly owned companies 3. Initial public offerings made by privately held firms: the IPO market - Going public: The act of selling stock to the public by a closely held corporation or its principal stockholders - Initial Public Offering (IPO) market: The market for stocks of companies that are in the process of going public When the market is going strong, many companies go public to bring in new capital and give their founders an opportunity to cash out some of their shares (selling occurs in primary market) Essential to recognize that firms can go public without raising any additional capital Financial Statements and Reports Annual Report Report issued annually by a corporation to stockholders Contains financial statements, and a verbal section of the management’s analysis of firm’s past operations and future prospects Presented as a letter from the chairperson Verbal Section Describes firm’s operating results during the past year and discusses new developments that will affect future operations Statement of firm’s financial position at one point of time Balance Sheet Shows what assets the company owns and who has claims on the assets as of a date Income Summarizes a firm’s revenues and expenses over a given period of Statement Key Financial time Statements Statement of How much cash the firm began with, how much it ended with and Cash Flows what it did to increase/decrease its cash Statement of Shows that amount of equity the stockholders’ had at the start of Stockholders’ the year, that items that increase or decrease equity, and equity at Equity the end of the year Both balance sheet and income statement shows how the company performed in the past and this year Provides information about future prospects The Balance Sheet - - Statement of a firm’s financial position at a specific point in time Total Assets = Total Liabilities and Equity Total Assets Total Liabilities and Equity Current Assets/Working Capital Current Liabilities Less than one-year maturity Cash and Equivalents Accounts Receivable Inventory Long-Term (Fixed) Assets - - Net plant and equipment Intellectual property Other long-term assets - - Less than one-year maturity Accrued wages and taxes Accounts Payable Notes Payable Stockholders’ Equity Common Stock + Retained Earnings (must equal) - Total Assets – Total Liabilities Long-Term Debt Stockholders’ Equity: Amount that the shareholders paid the company when the shares were purchased and the amount of earnings that the company has retained since its organization Retained Earnings: Represent the cumulative total of all earnings kept by the company during its life Other things to note: Net Working Capital Current Assets – Current Liabilities Net Operating Working Capital Current Assets – (Current Liabilities – Notes Payable) - Accumulated Depreciation: Decrease in value of an asset over time - Market Value: Value if put up on sale vs Book Value: Accounting numbers The Income Statement Report summarizing firm’s revenue, expenses and profits during a reporting period Interest expense is tax deductible Other things to note: Operating Income (or EBIT) Earnings Before Taxes (EBT) (i.e. Taxable Income) Net Income Earning Per Share (EPS) (most important to shareholders) Sales Revenue – Operating Costs Earnings Before Income and Taxes – Interest Expense Operating Income – Interest - Tax 𝑁𝑒𝑡 𝐼𝑛𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒 𝐶𝑜𝑚𝑚𝑜𝑛 𝑆ℎ𝑎𝑟𝑒 𝑂𝑢𝑡𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑛𝑑𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑆𝑡𝑜𝑐𝑘ℎ𝑜𝑙𝑑𝑒𝑟𝑠 ′ 𝐸𝑞𝑢𝑖𝑡𝑦 Book Value Per Share (BVPS) 𝐶𝑜𝑚𝑚𝑜𝑛 𝑆ℎ𝑎𝑟𝑒 𝑂𝑢𝑡𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑛𝑑𝑖𝑛𝑔 - EBITDA: Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization - Amortization: Similar to depreciation, but used for intangible assets (i.e. copyrights, patents) Statement of Cash Flows Report that shows how items that affect the balance sheet and income statement affect the firm’s cash flows Managers strive to maximize cash flows available to investors E.g. Net Income Depreciation and Amortization Increase in Inventories Operating Income Increase in Accounts Receivable Increase in Accounts Payable Increase in Accrued Wages and Taxes Net Cash provided by (used in) Operating Activities Long-Term Investing Additions to Property, Plant and Equipment Activities Net Cash used in Investing Activities Increase in Notes Payable Increase in Bonds Financing Activities Payment of Dividends to Stockholders Net Cash provided by Financing Activities Net Decrease in Cash (Sum of First 3) Summary Cash and Equivalents at the Beginning of the Year Cash and Equivalents at the End of the Year Note: if during the year a company has high cash flows from its operations, it does not necessarily mean that cash on its balance sheet will be higher at the end of the year. This is especially so if there were negative cash flows from its investing and/or financing activities. i.e. If company used a lot of cash to purchase new equipment or to repurchase common stock, cash on the balance sheet could decline despite strong operating performance. Statement of Stockholders’ Equity Statement that shows by how much a firm’s equity changed during the year and why it occurred Income Taxes Individual Corporations Progressive Tax Marginal Tax Rate Average Tax Rate Capital Gain or Loss Double Taxation Tax system where tax rate is higher on higher incomes Tax rate applicable to the last unit of a person’s income Tax paid divided by taxable income Profit (loss) from the sale of a capital asset for more (less) than its purchase price. In U.S., capital gains are taxed Interest Paid by Corporations: Tax deductible (paid out of pre-tax income) Dividends Paid by Corporations: Out of after-tax income Dividends Received by Investors: Taxed in the U.S. The Cost of Money Affected by: Production Opportunities Time Preference for Consumption Risk (Expected) Inflation Investment opportunities in productive (cash-generating) assets Preference for current consumption as opposed to saving for future Chance that an investment will provide a low/negative return Amount by which prices increase over time Higher the EI, higher the required dollar return The Determinants of Market Interest Rates 𝑟 = 𝑟 ∗ + 𝐼𝑃 + 𝐷𝑅𝑃 + 𝐿𝑃 + 𝑀𝑅𝑃 𝑟 = 𝑟𝑅𝐹 + 𝐷𝑅𝑃 + 𝐿𝑃 + 𝑀𝑅𝑃 r r* IP rRF DRP LP MRP Required return on a debt security - Nominal interest rate, takes into account expected inflation Real risk-free rate of interest - Interest rate of borrowing when there is zero expected inflation Inflation premium - Average expected inflation over life of debt security Nominal rate on risk-free security - i.e. U.S. Treasury bill (very liquid and free of most types of risks) - r* + IP Default risk premium - Compensation for possible default that issuer will not pay principal and interests on time and at stated amounts - Difference between interest rate on a U.S. Treasury bond and a corporate bond of equal maturity and marketability Liquidity premium - Compensation for possibility of difficulty of selling debt security quickly at market value Maturity risk premium - Compensation for possible loss in value due to increase in interest rates over maturity of debt security - Affects longer term security more than shorter term - Longer the maturity, higher the MRP Different premiums added to different types of debt IP MRP S-T Treasury Added L-T Treasury Added Added S-T Corporate Added L-T Corporate Added Added DRP LP Added Added Added Added The Term Structure of Interest Rates Relationship between interest rates (or bond yields) and maturities Yield curve are graphs showing the relationship “Normal” yield curve Upward sloping. Due to an increase in IP and increasing MRP Downward sloping; “Abnormal” yield curve Inverted yield curve When IP is expected to decrease, and decreases more than increase in MRP Yield curve where interest rates on intermediate-term maturities are higher than rates on Humped yield curve both short- and long-term maturities What Determines the Shape of the Yield Curve Treasury bond yield = rt* + IPt + MRPt Corporate bond yield = rt* + IPt + MRPt + DRPt + LPt Corporate bond yield spread = Corporate bond yield – Treasury bond yield = DRPt + LPt - Spread widens as the corporate bond rating decreases Corporate yield curves are higher than treasury securities - Because higher risk of default Constructing the Treasury Yield Curve: Step 1: Finding the average expected inflation rate Step 2: Find the appropriate maturity risk premium Step 3: Adding the IP and MRP to r* to find appropriate nominal rates - ∑𝑁 𝐼𝑁𝐹𝐿 𝐼𝑃𝑁 = 𝑡=1𝑁 𝑡 Sum of expected inflation from year 1 to year N divided by number of years MRPt = 0.1% (t-1) t = number of years to maturity Treasury bond yield = rt* + IPt + MRPt Macroeconomic Factors that Influence Interest Rate Levels Federal Reserve policy (Fed promotes economy growth) Government budgets deficits or surpluses International Factors (Includes foreign trade balance and interest rates in other countries) Level of Business Activities Control of money supply & to keep inflation at bay To stimulate the economy, Fed increases money supply Buy and sell short-term securities: - Initial effect: Short-term rates declines - Larger money supply cause long-term rates to rise (even if short-term rates fall) Govt spends more than it takes in as taxes Deficit Covered by additional borrowing or printing money - Additional borrowing Increases demand for funds i/r increases - Printing money Increased inflation Increases i/r - Hence, larger the deficit, higher the level of i/r, ceteris paribus More imports than exports Run a foreign trade deficit Larger the trade deficit, higher the tendency to borrow Foreigners will only hold U.S. debt if rates on U.S. securities are competitive with other countries U.S. i/r highly dependent on rates of other countries - Interdependency limits the ability to use monetary policy to control economic activity in U.S. Inflation increases, i/r tend to increase Recessions Demand for money & rate of inflation tend to fall + Fed tend to increase money supply to stimulate economy Tendency for i/r to decline Recessions: Short-term rates decline more sharply than long-term rates (in U.S.) - Fed operates mainly in short-term sector Strongest effect there - Long-term rates reflect the average expected inflation rate over the next 20 to 30 years, and this expectation generally doesn’t change much Interest Rates and Business Decisions If short-term interest rates are lower than long-term rates, a borrower might still choose to finance with long-term debt because: - Interest costs remain the same throughout Increase in i/r in the economy will not affect us Chapter 9: Bonds and Their Valuations Learning Objectives: Calculating the bond prices and discuss what the relationship is between interest rates and bond prices Understand how a bond’s price changes over time as it approaches maturity Calculate a bond’s yield to maturity Understand the component of total return on bonds Explain the different types of risks that bond investors and issuers face Who Issues Bonds? Bonds: Long-term debt instrument (or contract) (Borrower agrees to make payments of interest and principal on specific dates to holders of the bond) Treasury Bonds Reasonable to assume govt makes good on its promised payments No DRP (issued by govt) Bonds’ prices do decline when i/r increases Not completely riskless Exposed to default risk (often referred as “credit risk”) - Issuing company runs into trouble Unable to make promised interest and Corporate Bonds principal payments Bondholders suffer losses Larger the risk, higher the i/r investors demand Exposed to some default risk Municipal Bonds Interest earned in most munis exempted from federal tax and from state taxes (if (issued by state) holder is a resident) Market interest rate on a muni is considerably lower than on a corporate of equivalent risk Exposed to default risk Foreign Bonds Additional risk when bonds are denominated in another currency Key Characteristics of Bonds Yield to Maturity Par Value Coupon Interest Rate Maturity Date Call Provisions Sinking Funds Other Features Nominal rate of return earned on a bond held to maturity Stated face value of the bond, paid at maturity Generally assumed to be $1,000 unless otherwise stated Specified number of dollars of interest paid each year Coupon Payment Coupon i/r X Par Value Coupon Interest Stated annual i/r on a bond Rate Fixed-Rate Bond Bond’s i/r fixed for its entire life Floating-Rate Bond whose interest fluctuates with shifts in general level of i/r Bond Zero Coupon Pays no annual interest, but sold at discount below par Bond Provides capital appreciation rather than interest income Original Issue Any bond originally offered at a price below its par value Discount (OID) Bond Specified date on which the par value must be repaid Provision that gives issuers the right to redeem the bonds under specified terms prior to the normal maturity date Mainly in corporate and municipal bonds Usually issuer must pay bondholders an amount greater than par value if called Companies not likely to call bonds unless i/r declined significantly since bonds issuing Provision in the bond contract that requires the issuer to retire a portion of the bond issue each year Convertible Bond that is exchangeable into shares of common stock at a fixed price Bond Long-term option to buy a stated number of shares of common stock Warrant at a specified price Capital gain if stock’s price rises Putable Bond Income Bond Indexed Bond Bond with provision that allows investors to sell it back to the company prior to maturity at a prearranged price Bond that pays interest only if it issuer earned enough money to pay the interest Bond that has interest payments based on inflation index to protect holder from inflation Zero Coupon Bond: 𝐹𝑉 = 𝑃𝑉 (1 + 𝐼)𝑁 Coupon Bond: 𝑃𝑉 = 𝑃𝑀𝑇 1 1000 [1 − (1+𝐼)𝑁] − (1+𝐼)𝑁 𝐼 = PV of Annuity + PV of Par Value Bond Valuation 𝐶𝐹1 𝐶𝐹2 𝐶𝐹𝑁 𝑀 𝐶𝐹 𝑀 ∑𝑁 𝐵𝑜𝑛𝑑′ 𝑠 𝑉𝑎𝑙𝑢𝑒 = 𝑉𝐵 = (1+𝑟) 𝑡=1 (1+𝑟)𝑡 + (1+𝑟)𝑁 1 + (1+𝑟)2 + ⋯ + (1+𝑟)𝑁 + (1+𝑟)𝑁 = r (or rd) CF N M Par Bond Premium Bond Discount Bond Required rate of return of shareholders = YTM = Discount price Opportunity cost of debt capital r ≠ Coupon rate unless bond price is at par Cash flow/Payment = Coupon rate X Par value Number of years Par value YTM = Coupon Rate Bond Price = Par Value YTM < Coupon Rate Bond Price > Par Value YTM > Coupon Rate Bond Price < Par Value Bond Yields Finding r (or rd): 𝐶𝐹1 𝐶𝐹2 𝐶𝐹𝑁 𝑀 - 𝑉𝐵 = (1+𝑟) 1 + (1+𝑟)2 + ⋯ + (1+𝑟)𝑁 + (1+𝑟)𝑁 - Expected total return = YTM = (Expected CY) + (Expected CGY) 𝐴𝑛𝑛𝑢𝑎𝑙 𝐶𝑜𝑢𝑝𝑜𝑛 𝑃𝑎𝑦𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝐶𝑢𝑟𝑟𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑌𝑖𝑒𝑙𝑑 (𝐶𝑌) = 𝑃𝑟𝑖𝑐𝑒 =𝑆𝑒𝑙𝑙𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑃𝑟𝑖𝑐𝑒 𝑡 𝐶𝑎𝑝𝑖𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝐺𝑎𝑖𝑛𝑠 𝑌𝑖𝑒𝑙𝑑 = 𝑃𝑟𝑖𝑐𝑒𝑡+1 −𝑃𝑟𝑖𝑐𝑒𝑡 𝑃𝑟𝑖𝑐𝑒𝑡 (= Percentage value; negative value means capital loss) Changes in Bond Value Over Time If required rate of return remains at 10%, Par bonds: No gain nor loss Premium bonds: Capital loss because bond value decrease over time Compensated by high CY Discounts bonds: Capital gain because bond value increase over time Low coupon rates hence low CY Bonds with Semiannual Coupons 𝐼𝑁𝑇 𝑀 2 𝑃𝑟𝑖𝑐𝑒 𝑜𝑓 𝑆𝑒𝑚𝑖𝑎𝑛𝑛𝑢𝑎𝑙 𝐶𝑜𝑢𝑝𝑜𝑛 𝐵𝑜𝑛𝑑 (𝑉𝐵 ) = ∑ 𝑟𝑑 𝑡 + 𝑟 (1 + 2𝑑 )2𝑁 𝑡=1 (1 + 2 ) 2𝑁 1. Multiply the years by 2 2. Divide nominal rates by 2 3. Divide annual coupon by 2 Assessing a Bond’s Riskiness Interest Rate (or Price) Risk Reinvestment Risk Risk of a decline in bond’s price due to an increase in i/r Bonds with longer maturity have higher i/r risk, ceteris paribus Longer maturity bonds are more sensitive to i/r changes Risk that a decline in i/r will lead to a decline in income from a bond portfolio i/r falls, future CFs reinvested at lower rates Reduces income Which type of risk is more relevant to an investor depends on how long the investor plans to hold the bonds, referred to as his investment horizon Interest Rate Risk Reinvestment Risk Short-term Bonds Low High Long-term Bonds High Low Low Coupon Rates High Low High Coupon Rates Low High Low coupon means relatively larger portion of cash flows will only occur at maturity with repayment of principal High coupon means more of the cash flows occur in the early years due to higher coupon payment When i/r increases, low coupon bonds are penalized more (i.e. value decreases more) as a relatively larger portion of cash flows are locked up in the bond In contrast, due to higher coupon payment of high coupon bonds, risk of reinvesting these high coupons at a lower i/r is higher Default Risk If issuer defaults, investors receive less than the promised return Influenced by issuer’s financial strength and the terms of the bond contract Bond ratings reflect the probability of a bond issue doing into default - Investment-Grade Bond: Bond rated Triple-B and above; Many banks and institutional investors are permitted by law to only hold investment-grade bonds - Junk Bond: High-risk, high-yield bond Bond Rating Criteria: 1. Financial Ratios 2. Qualitative Factors: Bond Contract Terms 3. Miscellaneous Qualitative Factors i.e. Sensitivity of firm’s earnings to strength of the economy Chapter 8: Risk and Rates of Return Learning Objectives: Explain the difference between stand-alone risk and portfolio risk Understand how risk aversion affects a stock’s required rate of return Calculate the expected return and risk when holding an individual stock Calculate the coefficient of variation Discuss the difference between diversifiable risk and market risk, and explain how each type of risk affects well-diversified investors Understand what the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) is and how it is used to estimate a stock’s required rate of return Calculate a portfolio’s expected return and its risk Determine if a stock is undervalued or overvalued Explain how expected inflation and investors’ risk aversion can affect the security market line (SML) The Risk-Return Trade-Off To entice investors to take on more risk, have to provide them with higher expected returns Most investors are risk averse - Dislike risks, and require higher rate of return to encourage them to hold riskier securities Risk Premium Investment risk Rate of Return Difference between the return on a risky asset and a riskless asset Serves as a compensation for investors to hold riskier securities Probability of earning a return that is different from expected 𝐸𝑛𝑑𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑉𝑎𝑙𝑢𝑒−𝐴𝑚𝑜𝑢𝑛𝑡 𝐼𝑛𝑣𝑒𝑠𝑡𝑒𝑑 𝐴𝑚𝑜𝑢𝑛𝑡 𝐼𝑛𝑣𝑒𝑠𝑡𝑒𝑑 Stand-Alone Risk The risk an investor faces if he only held one asset Probability Listing of all possible outcomes, and the probability of each occurrence Distributions 𝑟̂ = 𝑃1 𝑟1 + 𝑃2 𝑟2 + ⋯ + 𝑃𝑁 𝑟𝑁 = ∑𝑁 𝑖=1 𝑃𝑖 𝑟𝑖 N= Number of different states of economy Expected rates of 𝑟𝑖 = Stock’s expected return at i state of economy return, 𝑟̂ 𝑃𝑖 = Probability of i state of the economy occurring Rate of return to be realized from an investment ̂2 𝜎 = √∑𝑁 𝑖=1(𝑟𝑖 − 𝑟) 𝑃𝑖 where: Standard deviation, σ N= Number of different states of economy 𝑟𝑖 = Stock’s expected return at i state of economy 𝑃𝑖 = Probability of i state of the economy occurring Used to measure volatility of stock’s returns Measures whether returns are likely to be close to the expected return Measures stand-alone risk Tighter the probability distribution, lower the S.D., lower the stand-alone risk 𝐶𝑉 = Coefficient of variation, CV 𝑆𝑡𝑎𝑛𝑑𝑎𝑟𝑑 𝑑𝑒𝑣𝑖𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝐸𝑥𝑝𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑒𝑑 𝑟𝑒𝑡𝑢𝑟𝑛 = σ 𝑟̂ Shows risk per unit of return Useful when comparing investments with different expected returns Highest CV = Highest stand-alone risk If risk remains the same when economy changes, it means that returns are independent of the economy. - However, not completely risk free as it is still exposed to inflation and reinvestment risk. Risk in a Portfolio Risk Expected Return on Portfolio, 𝑟̂𝑝 𝑟̂𝑝 = 𝑤1 𝑟̂1 + 𝑤2 𝑟̂2 + ⋯ + 𝑤𝑁 𝑟̂𝑁 = ∑𝑁 𝑖=1 𝑤𝑖 𝑟̂𝑖 N= Number of different states of economy 𝑤𝑖 = Stock’s weight 𝑟𝑖 = Expected return on the ith stock Portfolio’s expected return is a weighted average of the returns of portfolio’s component assets. Portfolio’s Standard Deviation ̂2 σ𝑝 = √∑𝑁 𝑖=1(𝑝𝑜𝑟𝑡𝑓𝑜𝑙𝑖𝑜 𝑎𝑣𝑔 − 𝑟𝑝 ) (𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦) σ𝑝 will be lower than σ𝑖 of individual stocks There will be diversification benefits when combining stocks as long as the stocks are not perfectly positively correlated stocks (i.e. ρ = 1.0) - ρ is the correlation coefficient. Measures the degree of relationship between 2 variables - Correlation: Tendency of 2 variables to move together - When ρ = -1.0 (perfectly negatively correlated), all risks are diversified away No risk because no σ Combining stocks in a portfolio generally lowers risk Eventually, diversification benefits of adding more stocks dissipates (after about 10 stocks), and for large companies, σ𝑝 tends to converge to 20% Portfolio’s Risk Stand-alone risk Diversifiable risk Market risk Sources of Risk Decomposed into diversifiable and market risk Portion of a security’s stand-alone risk that can be eliminated through proper diversification - Also called unsystematic/firm-specific risk Portion of a security’s stand-alone risk that cannot be eliminated through diversification. - Measured by beta - Caused by market-wide risk factors that affect all stocks - Also called systematic/undiversifiable risk CAPM: Capital Asset Pricing Model Model based on proposition that any stock’s required rate of return is equal to the risk-free rate of return plus a risk premium that reflects only the risk remaining after diversification Primary conclusion: Relevant riskiness of a stock is its market risk as measured by beta Security Market Line (SML): 𝑟𝑖 = 𝑟𝑅𝐹 + (𝑟𝑀 − 𝑟𝑅𝐹 )(𝑏𝑖 ) Additional return over the risk-free rate needed to compensate investors for Market Risk Premium assuming an average amount of risk (𝑟𝑀 − 𝑟𝑅𝐹 ) or (𝑅𝑃𝑀 ) Size depends on the perceived risk of the stock market and the investors’ degree of risk aversion Measures a stock’s market risk Shows stock volatility relative to market It is the expected change in its return given a 1% change in the return of the market portfolio Beta (𝑏𝑖 ) Beta values: 1. Beta = 1.0 Just as risky as average stock 2. Beta > 1.0 Riskier than average 3. Beta < 1.0 Beta less risky than average 4. Beta = 0 Returns are independent of the economy 5. Stocks can have a negative beta, especially if returns move counter-cyclically with market returns Beta of a portfolio is the weighted average of each of the stock’s betas 𝑁 𝑏𝑝 = 𝑤1 𝑏1 + 𝑤2 𝑏2 + ⋯ + 𝑤𝑁 𝑏𝑁 = ∑ 𝑤𝑖 𝑏𝑖 𝑖=1 - 𝑤𝑖 : Fraction of the portfolio invested in the ith stock - 𝑏𝑖 : Beta coefficient of the ith stock Calculating beta: - Run a regression of the security’s past returns against the past returns of the market - Slope of regression line is the beta coefficient of the security Required rate of return 𝑅𝑃𝑖 = 𝑅𝑃𝑀 (𝑏𝑖 ) 𝑟𝑖 Risk Premium for Stock i (𝑅𝑃𝑖 ) The Relationship between Risk and Rates of Return Expected Inflation Changes in Risk Aversion Required returns Expected returns Realized returns Factors that Change the SML Expected rate of inflation increases Premium added to real risk-free rate of return to compensate investors for the loss of purchasing power Increase in rRF leads to equal increase in rates of return on all risky assets as the same inflation premium is built into the required rates of return i.e. SML will move up parallel by the amount inflation increased by Steeper the slope of the line, more the average investor requires as compensation for bearing risk i.e. SML will become steeper when there’s greater risk aversion Returns an investor requires given the riskiness of the stock and returns available on other investments Returns an investor expects to get in the future Only buy the stock when expected returns > required returns In equilibrium, expected and required returns should be the same Returns an investor actually gets Chapter 10 & Appendix 10A: Stocks and their Valuation (except 10.7) Chapter 2.7: Stock Market Efficiency Learning Objectives: Understand the difference between stock price and intrinsic value Identify and explain the two models that can be used to estimate a stock’s intrinsic value: the discounted dividend model and multiples of comparable firms method Calculate the intrinsic value of a stock with constant growth and non-constant growth Calculate the stock’s expected return, expected dividend yield and expected capital gains yield Understand the key features of preferred stock and calculate the estimated value of preferred stock or its expected return Discuss the importance of market efficiency, and explain why some markets are more efficient than others 2 sources of returns from stocks: 1. Stock price appreciation (profits from increase in share price – capital gains) 2. Dividends 𝑅𝑒𝑡𝑢𝑟𝑛 = 𝐸𝑛𝑑𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑉𝑎𝑙𝑢𝑒−𝐴𝑚𝑜𝑢𝑛𝑡 𝐼𝑛𝑣𝑒𝑡𝑒𝑑 𝐴𝑚𝑜𝑢𝑛𝑡 𝐼𝑛𝑣𝑒𝑠𝑡𝑒𝑑 (from previous topics) Types of Common Stock Usually firms only have one type of common stock. Firms might use classified stock to seek funds from outside sources. Common stock that is given a special designated class such as Class A or Class B to meet special needs of the company - Different classes may have different votes per share + one Class sold to public but Classified stock another class retained by company’s insiders - Enables company’s founders to maintain control over the company without having to own a majority of common stock Stock owned by the firm’s founders that enables them to maintain control over the Founders’ Share company without having to own a majority of the stock Stock Price versus Intrinsic Value At equilibrium, we assume that a stock’s price = its intrinsic value Stock’s price < Intrinsic value Undervalued - Goal when investing in common stock is to purchase undervalued stocks Stock Price Current market price, easily observed for publicly traded companies Represents the “true” value of the company’s stock, and cannot be directly observed Have to be estimated Intrinsic Value 𝑃̂𝑜 Outsiders estimate intrinsic value to help determine which stocks are attractive to buy/sell The Discounted Dividend Model 𝑉𝑎𝑙𝑢𝑒 𝑜𝑓 𝑆𝑡𝑜𝑐𝑘 = 𝑃̂𝑜 = Dt P0 𝑃̂𝑡 g rs 𝑟̂𝑠 𝐷1 𝑃0 𝑃̂1 − 𝑃0 𝑃0 𝐷1 (1+𝑟𝑠 )1 𝐷 𝐷 𝐷 𝑡 + (1+𝑟2 )2 + ⋯ + (1+𝑟∞)∞ = ∑∞ 𝑡=1 (1+𝑟 )𝑡 = 𝑃𝑉 𝑜𝑓 𝑒𝑥𝑝𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑒𝑑 𝑑𝑖𝑣𝑖𝑑𝑒𝑛𝑑𝑠 𝑠 𝑠 𝑠 Dividend stockholder expects to receive at the end of year t D0 is the last dividend paid Actual market price of stock today Intrinsic value at the end of year t Expected growth rate in dividends Required rate of return (Use CAPM to estimate) Expected rate of return = Dividend yield expected + Expected capital gains yield Dividend yield expected Expected capital gains yield on stock Constant Growth Stocks (Gordon’s Model) Stock whose dividends are expected to grow forever at a constant rate, g 𝐷 (1+𝑔) 𝐷 𝑉𝑎𝑙𝑢𝑒 𝑜𝑓 𝐶𝑜𝑛𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑛𝑡 𝐺𝑟𝑜𝑤𝑡ℎ 𝑆𝑡𝑜𝑐𝑘 = 𝑃̂𝑜 = 0 = 1 𝐷𝑛+1 𝑟𝑠 −𝑔 𝑟𝑠 −𝑔 𝑟𝑠 −𝑔 i.e. 𝑃̂𝑛 = g = (1 – Payout) (ROE) - Payout ratio = Dividends/Net Income - ROE: Return on Equity = Net Income/Total Common Equity g = (Retention Ratio) (ROE) ; 𝑃̂𝑛+1 = 𝑃̂𝑛 (1 + 𝑔) Constant growth model can only be used if: 1. rs > g - g > rs, constant growth formula leads to negative stock price (which doesn’t make sense) 2. g is expected to stay constant forever Calculating intrinsic value of a stock with constant growth: 1. Calculate the required rate of return rs using CAPM 2. Find the expected D1 3. Use the constant growth model Note: Estimated intrinsic value depends on future dividends at the growth rate, which comes from estimation & based on assumption Valuing Non-Constant Growth Stocks 𝐷1 (1+𝑟𝑠 )1 𝐷 𝑃̂ 𝐷 𝑉𝑎𝑙𝑢𝑒 𝑜𝑓 𝑁𝑜𝑛𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑛𝑡 𝑆𝑡𝑜𝑐𝑘 𝐺𝑟𝑜𝑤𝑡ℎ, 𝑃̂𝑜 = 𝐷 𝑃𝑉 𝑜𝑓 ℎ𝑜𝑟𝑖𝑧𝑜𝑛 𝑣𝑎𝑙𝑢𝑒 = 𝑃̂𝑁 = 𝑁+1 Calculating intrinsic value of a stock with non-constant growth: 1. Find PV of each dividend during the period of non-constant growth and sum them 2. Find the expected stock price at the end of the non-constant growth period. Discount the price back to present. 3. Add both components to find stock’s intrinsic value For non-constant growth stocks: - Expected dividend yield and capital gains yield are not constant - Capital gains yield ≠ g + (1+𝑟2 )2 + ⋯ + (1+𝑟𝑁 )𝑁 + (1+𝑟𝑁 )𝑁 𝑠 𝑠 𝑠 𝑟𝑠 −𝑔 Multiples of Comparable Firms Method 𝑆𝑡𝑜𝑐𝑘 𝑃𝑟𝑖𝑐𝑒 𝑆𝑡𝑜𝑐𝑘 𝑃𝑟𝑖𝑐𝑒 𝑆𝑡𝑜𝑐𝑘 𝑃𝑟𝑖𝑐𝑒 𝐸𝑎𝑟𝑛𝑖𝑛𝑔𝑠 𝑃𝑒𝑟 𝑆ℎ𝑎𝑟𝑒 𝐶𝑎𝑠ℎ 𝐹𝑙𝑜𝑤 𝑆𝑎𝑙𝑒𝑠 I.e. Based on comparable firms, estimate the appropriate P/E. Multiply by expected earnings to back out an estimate of the stock price Preferred Stock Hybrid security - Like bonds, preferred stockholders receive a fixed dividend that must be paid before dividends are paid to common stockholders - Companies can omit preferred dividend payments without fear of pushing the firm into bankruptcy Preferred stock entitles its owners to regular, fixed dividends payments. If payments last forever, then: 𝐷 𝑉𝑎𝑙𝑢𝑒 𝑜𝑓 𝑝𝑟𝑒𝑓𝑒𝑟𝑟𝑒𝑑 𝑠𝑡𝑜𝑐𝑘 = 𝑉𝑃 = 𝑟 𝑃 ; where: 𝑃 - DP = Preferred stock’s dividend per share and - rp = required return on preferred stock 𝐷 𝐸𝑥𝑝𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑒𝑑 𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑒 𝑜𝑓 𝑟𝑒𝑡𝑢𝑟𝑛 = 𝑟̂𝑃 = 𝑃 𝑉𝑃 Stock Market Equilibrium At equilibrium, stock prices are stable and there is no general tendency for people to buy/sell For a stock to be in equilibrium, two conditions must hold. 1. The current market stock price = intrinsic value (i.e. P0 = 𝑃̂𝑜 ) 2. Expected returns = Required returns (i.e. rs= 𝑟̂𝑠 ) 𝐷 𝑟̂𝑠 = 𝑃1 + 𝑔 = 𝑟𝑠 = 𝑟𝑅𝐹 + (𝑟𝑀 − 𝑟𝑅𝐹 )(𝑏) 0 - 𝑟̂𝑠 based on current stock prices, and estimating the expected dividends and expected capital gains 𝑟𝑠 determined by estimating risk and applying CAPM If stock price is below intrinsic: - Current price is “too low” and offers a bargain - Buy orders > Sell orders - Price bid up until expected return = required return Equilibrium levels are based on the market’s estimate of intrinsic value and the market’s required rate of return, which are both dependent on the attitudes of the marginal investor (who makes the transactions occur) Stock Market Efficiency Market Price Intrinsic Value Equilibrium Price Efficient Market Current price of stock Price at which stock would sell at if all investors had all knowable information about a stock (based on expected future cash flows and its risk) Price that balances buy and sell orders at any given time A market in which prices are close to intrinsic values and stocks seem to be in equilibrium Does not require market price = intrinsic value at every point of time Just requires deviations between the two to be random Implication: Investors cannot “beat the market” except through good luck or better information Concepts of market efficiency are related to the assumptions about what information is available to investors and reflected in the price It is also possible that some markets are efficient, while other are not. Key factors are: 1. Size of the company 2. Communication between company and analysts/investors - i.e. Larger companies are usually followed by many analysts + Good communication with investors Highly efficient - Smaller companies are usually not followed by many analysts + Not much contact with investors Highly inefficient Chapter 11: The Cost of Capital Learning Objectives: Understand what is capital budgeting Understand why a weighted average cost of capital (WACC) is needed for capital budgeting purposes Determine the sources of long-term capital Determine the weights of each capital component Calculate the cost of long-term debt and cost of preferred stock Calculate the cost of retained earnings and cost of new common stock Calculate the composite WACC of the firm Understand why the composite WACC needs to be adjusted to account for differential project risk Basic Definitions Capital Budgeting Cost of Capital Capital Structure Target Capital Structure rd rd (1-T) rp rs re wd, wp, we WACC Analysis of potential projects (especially long-term decisions involving large expenditures) Steps to Capital Budgeting: 1. Estimate Cash Flows 2. Assess the riskiness of CFs and determine the appropriate risk-adjusted cost of capital for discounting cash flows 3. Find NPV and/or IRR (MIRR) - To determine profitability Weighted average cost of each type of financing - Required returns of debtholders and equity holders become firm’s cost of capital - i.e. Cost of borrowing and cost of savings (investing savings elsewhere) Investment must give a return that is at least equal to cost of capital Mix of debt, preferred stock and common equity used to finance the firm’s asset Proportion of each long-term capital used Desired optimal mix of equity and debt financing Often the optimal structure that maximizes stock price Always use target capital structure rather than actual financing Interest rate on firm’s new debt Before-tax component cost of debt After-tax component cost of debt T is the firm’s marginal tax rate Component cost of preferred stock Component cost of common equity raised by retaining earnings Component cost of common equity raised by issuing new stock Adds flotation cost Target weights of debt, preferred stock and common equity Firm’s weighted average, or cost of capital WACC = wdrd (1-T) + wprp + wcrs Basic Concepts Use target capital structure weights (affects the ‘w’s) - Desired optimal mix of debt and equity Use market value weights (not book value) - Market value represents the actual amount of financing raised by the firm when they sell - Calculated based on current market conditions Use marginal cost (affect the ‘r’s) - Not historical cost - WACC is recorded at a point in time Reflects marginal cost of raising an additional dollar of capital today Use after-tax capital cost (affect ‘rd’ only) - Only rd needs adjustment because interest is tax deductible Cost of Debt, rd(1-T) rd = Marginal cost of debt capital YTM on outstanding long-term debt is often used as a measure of rd - Good estimate because YTM reflects current market conditions. Hence good proxy on the cost of new debt if the firm borrows from the market now Interest is tax deductible Need to adjust via (1-T) 1. 𝑟𝑝 = 𝐷𝑝 𝑃𝑝 𝐷𝑖𝑣𝑖𝑑𝑒𝑛𝑑 = 𝑃𝑟𝑖𝑐𝑒 𝑜𝑓 𝑃𝑟𝑒𝑓𝑒𝑟𝑟𝑒𝑑 𝑆𝑡𝑜𝑐𝑘 Cost of Preferred Stock, rp Cost of Retained Earnings, rs rs = Dividend yield + Capital gains yield Assuming constant growth, CGY = Perpetual growth rate, g 3. Own-Bond-Yield-Plus-Risk-Premium: 𝑟𝑠 = 𝑟𝑑 + 𝑅𝑃 RP = Risk premium for firm’s common equity NOT the same as CAPM RPM (risk premium of whole market portfolio) rp = Marginal cost of preferred stock - Return investors require on a firm’s preferred stock Preferred dividends not tax deductible No adjustments 1. CAPM: 𝑟𝑠 = 𝑟𝑅𝐹 + (𝑟𝑀 − 𝑟𝑅𝐹 )𝑏 𝐷 2. DCF: 𝑟𝑠 = 𝑃1 + 𝑔 0 rs = Marginal cost of common equity using retained earnings - There is a cost because earnings can be retained and reinvested or paid as dividends - Investors can buy other securities and earn returns 1. 𝑟𝑒 = Cost of New Common Stock, re 𝐷0 (1+𝑔) 𝑃0 (1−𝐹) + 𝑔, where F is the flotation cost re = Marginal cost of common equity using new common stock - re > rs because when issuing new stock, have to pay flotation cost Factors that Affect the WACC Factors the Firm Cannot Control Factors the Firm Can Control 1. Interest rate in the economy - i/r increases Cost of debt increases (because firms pay more to borrow) 2. General level of stock prices - General stock price decreases Firm’s stock price decreases Cost of equity increases 3. Tax rates - Affects cost of capital - i.e. When tax rates on dividends and capital gains lowered relative to rates on interest income Stocks relatively more attractive than debt Cost of equity and WACC decreases 1. Changing its capital structure 2. Changing its dividend payout ratio - Dividend policy affects amount of retained earnings available to firm Need to sell new stock & Incur flotation costs 3. Altering its capital budgeting decision rules (i.e. investment policy) - Firms with riskier projects generally have higher WACC Adjusting the Cost of Capital for Risk Projects should only be accepted if estimated returns > cost of capital (hurdle rate) Different projects have different risks, even for the same firm Each project’s hurdle rate should reflect the risk of the project, not the risk associate with the firm’s average project as reflected in the composite WACC Hence, companies should not use the composite WACC as the hurdle rate for each of its projects, regardless of riskiness. The composite WACC reflects the risk of an average project undertaken by the firm. Therefore, the WACC only represents the “hurdle rate” for a typical project with similar risk as the firm as a whole. As different projects have different risks, the project’s WACC should be adjusted to reflect the project’s risk. Some Other Problems with Cost of Capital Estimates Depreciationgenerated Funds Privately Owned Firms Measurement Problems Cost of Capital for Projects of Differing Risk Capital Structure Weights Largest single source of capital Opportunity cost as depreciation CF can be reinvested or returned to investors Stock not traded Tax issues Difficult to obtain good input data for CAPM, risk premium for rs CAPM uses estimates on market risk premium + Estimates can differ Different estimates of same variable i.e. Market rate Different assumptions for target capital structure The optimal mix Difficult to measure a project’s risk To adjust the cost of capital for capital budgeting projects with different risk Difficult to establish target capital structure Chapter 12: The Basics of Capital Budgeting Learning Objectives: Understand the difference between normal and non-normal cash flow streams Understand the different between mutually exclusive and independent projects Calculate and use the major capital budgeting decision criteria for mutually exclusive and independent projects, which are the 1) Payback Period 2) Discounted Payback Period 3) Net Present Value (NPV) 4) Internal Rate of Return (IRR) 5) Modified IRR (MIRR) Discuss strengths and weaknesses of each method (MCQ) Understand and interpret the NPV profile Calculate and understand the importance of the crossover point Discuss the conflict between NPV and IRR when evaluating mutually exclusive projects Understand why NPV is superior to IRR and MIRR Understand the multiple IRRs problem An Overview of Capital Budgeting Analyzing Capital Expenditure Proposals Normal vs NonNormal Cash Flow Streams Independent vs Mutually Exclusive Projects 1. Replacement: Needed to continue current operations - Expenditures to replace worn-out or damaged equipment required in the production of profitable products 2. Replacement: Cost reduction - Expenditure to replace serviceable but obsolete equipment 3. Expansion of existing products or markets - Expenditures to increase output of existing products or to expand retail outlets or distribution facilities in markets now being served - Requires explicit forecast of growth in demand 4. Expansion into new products or markets - Investments related to new products or geographic areas - Involve strategic decisions that could change the fundamental nature of the business 5. Safety and/or environmental projects - Expenditures necessary to comply with government orders, labour agreements, or insurance policy terms 6. Other projects - Includes items such as office buildings, parking lots and executive aircraft 7. Mergers - One company buys another One change in sign Normal E.g. Cost (negative CF) followed by a series of positive CF Two or more changes of sign Non-Normal E.g. [Setting up a power plant] Cost (negative CF), then string of positive CF, then cost to close project (negative CF) Both projects can be accepted Independent CF of one unaffected by acceptance of another Only one project can be accepted Mutually Exclusive If one is accepted, the other has to be rejected Capital Budgeting Criteria: Payback Period Length of time required to recover a project’s cost from investment’s CF 𝑃𝑎𝑦𝑏𝑎𝑐𝑘 = 𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑌𝑒𝑎𝑟𝑠 𝑝𝑟𝑖𝑜𝑟 𝑡𝑜 𝑓𝑢𝑙𝑙 𝑟𝑒𝑐𝑜𝑣𝑒𝑟𝑦 𝑈𝑛𝑐𝑜𝑣𝑒𝑟𝑒𝑑 𝑐𝑜𝑠𝑡 𝑎𝑡 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑟𝑡 𝑜𝑓 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟 To find Payback + 𝐶𝑎𝑠ℎ 𝑓𝑙𝑜𝑤 𝑑𝑢𝑟𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑟𝑒𝑐𝑜𝑣𝑒𝑟𝑦 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟 Choose the one with shorter payback Mutually Exclusive Shorter time to get back investment Which to Accept? Subjective benchmark (usually based on past projects) Independent E.g. Only projects less than X years 1) Easy to calculate and understand Strengths 2) Provides an indication of a project’s risk and liquidity - Shorter payback considered less risky & more liquid 1) Ignores time value of money 2) Arbitrary benchmark set subjectively by management 3) Ignores CFs occurring after the payback period Weaknesses - Unlike NPV (tells us how much wealth a project adds), and the IRR (tells us how much the project yields over the cost of capital) - Payback only tells when we can recover our capital - No necessary relation between a given payback and investor wealth maximization Capital Budgeting Criteria: Discounted Payback Period Length of time required for investment’s CF discounted at the investment’s cost of capital (WACC), to cover its cost 𝑃𝑎𝑦𝑏𝑎𝑐𝑘 = 𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑌𝑒𝑎𝑟𝑠 𝑝𝑟𝑖𝑜𝑟 𝑡𝑜 𝑓𝑢𝑙𝑙 𝑟𝑒𝑐𝑜𝑣𝑒𝑟𝑦 To Find Discounted 𝑈𝑛𝑐𝑜𝑣𝑒𝑟𝑒𝑑 𝑐𝑜𝑠𝑡 𝑎𝑡 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑟𝑡 𝑜𝑓 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟 Payback + 𝑫𝒊𝒔𝒄𝒐𝒖𝒏𝒕𝒆𝒅 𝐶𝑎𝑠ℎ 𝑓𝑙𝑜𝑤 𝑑𝑢𝑟𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑟𝑒𝑐𝑜𝑣𝑒𝑟𝑦 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟 Capital Budgeting Criteria: Net Present Value (NPV) Method of ranking investment proposals using NPV, which is equal to the present value of the project’s free cash flows (both inflow and outflow) discounted at the cost of capital Indicates how much shareholders’ wealth would increase if project is taken up Higher NPV = More value the project adds = Higher stock price = Higher increase in shareholders’ wealth 𝑁 To find NPV 𝑁𝑃𝑉 = ∑ 𝑡=0 Using GC Which to Accept? Strengths NPV Profiles Crossover Rates 𝐶𝐹𝑡 (1 + 𝑟)𝑡 NPV (rate, initial outlay, {CFs}, {CF counts}) - No spacing - Initial outlay = CF0 Mutually Accept the project with highest positive NPV Exclusive Independent Accept if NPV > 0 Direct measure of value the project adds to shareholder wealth Does not discriminate size of projects (unlike IRR) Graphical representation of project NPVs at various different costs of capital X-axis: Discount Rate (%) Y-axis: NPV ($) 1. Downward sloping NPV profiles - As discount rate increases, NPV decreases (because of discounting in formula) 2. Projects have different slopes NPV profiles cross - Steeper slope has higher sensitivity to discount rates - Steeper slope usually long-term project, where bulk of CF comes in later years 3. At crossover points, NPVA = NPVB 4. If mutually exclusive, choose the one that is higher before/after crossover point. 5. If independent, choose any before x-intercept (where NPV = 0) Cost of capital at which the NPV profiles of two projects cross Projects’ NPV equal Found by calculating the IRR of the differences in the project’s CF Capital Budgeting Criteria: Internal Rate of Return (IRR) The discount rate that forces a project’s NPV = 0 i.e. PV of CF = Investment costs 𝑁 To find IRR 0= ∑ 𝑡=0 Using GC Which to Accept? Strengths Weaknesses 𝐶𝐹𝑡 (1 + 𝐼𝑅𝑅)𝑡 IRR (initial outlay, {CFs}) - No spacing - Initial outlay = CF0 Mutually Accept the project with highest IRR, provided IRR > Cost of Capital Exclusive Independent Accept if IRR > Cost of Capital Useful to know rates of return on proposed investments Gives information concerning project’s safety margin (Managers) More intuitive and gives indication of benefits obtained relative to cost Suffers from Multiple IRR issue - Need to suspect multiple IRRs problem is CFs are non-normal and if cash inflows and outflows are of similar magnitude - NPV profiles intersects x-axis at 2 points - Use MIRR when there’s non-normal CF & there is more than one IRR value Assumes intermediate CFs reinvested at IRR Does not give accurate representation when comparing projects of different scales Comparing NPV and IRR Methods Independent Projects Mutually Exclusive Projects Both methods lead to the same accept/reject decisions Discount Rate > Leads to the same accept/reject decision Crossover Rate Discount Rate < Leads to different accept/reject decisions Crossover Rate (Hence better to rely on NPV results because of reinvestment rate) Conflict between NPV and IRR arises due to timing differences in CF and differences in project size Rate at which intermediate CF are reinvested becomes a critical issue Timing Differences in CFs Differences in CF timing or project scale Firms have different amounts to reinvest at Difference in Project various years Size NPV assumes intermediate CFs are reinvested at cost of capital (i.e. WACC) Reinvestment Rate More realistic Assumption IRR assumes intermediate CFs are reinvested at IRR Capital Budgeting Criteria: Modified Internal Rate of Return (MIRR) The discount rate that causes the PV of a project’s terminal value to equal to PV of costs TV found by compounding inflows at cost of capital (r) 𝑃𝑉 (𝐶𝑎𝑠ℎ 𝑶𝒖𝒕𝒇𝒍𝒐𝒘𝒔) = 𝑃𝑉 (𝐶𝑎𝑠ℎ 𝑰𝒏𝒇𝒍𝒐𝒘𝒔) To find MIRR 𝑁 ∑ 𝑡=0 Steps 𝑁−𝑡 ∑𝑁 𝐶𝑂𝐹𝑡 𝑡=0 𝐶𝐼𝐹(1 + 𝑟) = (1 + 𝑟)𝑡 (1 + 𝑀𝐼𝑅𝑅)𝑁 1. To get FV of TV inflows 2. To get PV of TV inflows 3. Calculating MIRR Which to Accept? Strengths Weaknesses Assume CFs reinvested at cost of capital Discount at MIRR to t = 0 Equate initial investment (or PV cash outflow, whichever is applicable) to discounted TV inflow Calculate MIRR Mutually Accept the project with higher MIRR Exclusive Independent Accept projects which MIRR > Cost of Capital More realistic because it assumes reinvestment at cost of capital Avoids multiple IRRs problem Does not solve IRR’s problem when evaluating projects of different scale NPV > MIRR > IRR Conclusions on Capital Budgeting (Page 428) NPV is the single best criterion because it provides a direct measure of value the project adds to shareholder wealth. IRR and MIRR measures profitability expressed as a percentage of return, which is interesting to decision makers. Furthermore, IRR and MIRR contain information concerning a project’s “safety margin”. The modified IRR has all the virtues of IRR, but it incorporates a better reinvestment rate assumption and avoids the multiple IRRs problem. So if decision makers want to know projects’ rates of return, the MIRR is a better indicator than the regular IRR. Payback and discounted payback provide indications of a project’s liquidity and risk. A long payback means that investment dollars will be locked up for a long time and hence, the project is relatively illiquid. In addition, a long payback means that cash flows must be forecasted far out into the future, and that probably makes the project riskier than one with shorter paybacks. Chapter 3,7 & Chapter 13: Cash Flow Estimation and Risk Analysis (Exclude 13.7) Chapter 20.2: Lease or Buy Decision Chapter 14.6: The Optimal Capital Budget Learning Objectives: Understand and identify what are relevant cash flows that should be included in cash flow estimation - Discuss sunk costs, opportunity costs, and externalities Estimate relevant cash flows for expansion project and replacement projects - Estimate initial cash flows - Estimate operating cash flows - Estimate terminal cash flows Understand and discuss the use of sensitivity analysis and scenario analysis in the capital budgeting process and how they can measure project standalone risk Analyze the decision to lease versus borrow-and-buy Calculate the net advantage of leasing Understand what is the optimal capital budget and what is capital rationing Free Cash Flow Cash flow available to shareholders and debtholders less the need for re-investment to operate and produce future cash flows (without harming the firm’s ability) 𝐹𝐶𝐹 = [𝐸𝐵𝐼𝑇(1 − 𝑇) + 𝐷𝑒𝑝. & 𝐴𝑚𝑜𝑟𝑡. ] − [𝐶𝐴𝑃𝐸𝑋 + ∆𝑁𝑂𝑊𝐶] Positive FCF indicates firm is generating more than enough cash to finance its current investments in fixed assets and working capital Amount of cash that the firm generates from its current operations EBIT(1-T) + Dep. & EBIT (1-T) Net operating profit after taxes Amort. Depreciation & Added back in because they are noncash expenses that reduce EBIT, Amortization but does not reduce the amount of cash the company has available Amount of cash that the firm is investing in its fixed assets (capital expenditures) and operating working capital in order to sustain its operating operations Capital Expenditure CAPEX Investment in gross fixed assets + Depreciation ∆Gross fixed assets -∆Net fixed assets CAPEX + ∆NOWC Net Operating Working Capital Current assets – Non-interest-bearing current liabilities ∆NOWC Current assets – (Accrued wages and taxes + Accounts payable) Current assets – (Current liabilities – Notes payable) Conceptual Issues in Cash Flow Estimation Free Cash Flow vs Accounting Income Timing of Cash Flows Relevant Cash Flows Cash is king in finance Net income and operating income are not cash - They are accounting numbers - Includes non-cash items such as depreciation - Under accrual-based accounting, revenues and expenses are booked when they occur, not when cash is received/paid When evaluating projects, we are interested in cash flows that the project produces In theory, capital budgeting analysis should deal with cash flows exactly when they occur Costly to estimate and analyze daily cash flows Difficult to accurately forecast daily cash flows Hence, we generally assume all cash flows to occur at the end of the year Incremental cash flows that will occur if and only if the project is accepted Difference between CF if project is accepted vs. CF if project is not accepted Calculate relevant cash flows for different types of projects: - Expansion projects - Replacement projects - Lease vs. buy Irrelevant Cash Flows By accepting the project, the firm forgoes a possible annual CF, which Opportunity Costs Associated is an opportunity cost to be charged to the project with Assets the Relevant CF is the annual after-tax opportunity cost [Cost(1-T)] Firm Owns This CF should be taken out from annual operating CF Effect on other businesses of the firm or on the environment After-tax CF loss per year on the other business lines would be a loss to this project Externalities Externalities can be positive (complements) or negative (substitutes) Cannibalization: When new business takes away the existing business Because when calculating NPV, we divide by the cost of capital Interest Charges Hence, all financing charges (i.e. interest charges and dividends) are included Because sunk cost would be (or has already been) incurred regardless Sunk Costs of whether the project is accepted/rejected (NOT incremental) Analysis of an Expansion Project – Determining Project Cash Flows Estimating relevant cash flows 1. Find ∆NOWC Initial Year Free Cash 2. Combing Flow ∆NOWC with CAPEX Determining Annual Depreciation Annual Operating Expense Cash Flows OCF Terminal Cash Flow (Inflow due to liquidation of project) 1. Find AfterTax Salvage Value 2. Combine with NOWC ∆NOWC = ∆Current Assets – (∆Current Liabilities - ∆Notes Payable) CAPEX includes: (Equipment) and (Shipping & Installation) (Negative) because cash outflow Depreciable basis = Equipment + Shipping & Installation Do NOT subtract salvage value from depreciable basis unless otherwise stated Revenue – Cash Operating Cost – Depreciation Expense = EBIT EBIT (Operating Income) – Tax = Operating Income (AT) Operating Income (AT) + Depreciation Expense = Operating Cash Flow Salvage Value – Tax (Salvage Value – Remaining Book Value) = After-Tax Salvage Value Recovery of NOWC + After-Tax Salvage Value = Terminal CF In termination year, cash flow = operating cash flow for that year + terminal CF Use GC: NPV(Rate,Initial outlay,{CF1, CF2, …, CFN},{Cash flow counts}) At Termination Find NPV Replacement Analysis Find cash flow differentials between new and old projects Replacing old assets with new ones Key is to find incremental cash flow - i.e. The opportunity cost Initial Investment/CF Cost of new asset – After-tax cash inflow from sale of old asset at t=0 (t=0) Operating Cash Flows Operating cash flows from new asset – Operating cash flows from old asset Terminal Cash Flows After-tax inflows from sale of new asset – After-tax inflows from sale of old asset at t=N (t=N) Risk Analysis in Capital Budgeting Stand-Alone Risk Corporate (Within Firm) Risk Market (Beta) Risk Risk an asset would have if it were a firm’s only asset and investors owned only one stock Measured by the variability of the asset’s expected returns Project’s risk to the corporation as opposed to investors Takes account of the fact that the project is only one asset in the firm’s portfolio of assets Some of the risk will be eliminated by diversification within the firm Measured by a project’s effect on uncertainty about the firm’s expected future returns Riskiness of project which considers both firm and stockholder diversification Measured by effects on the firm’s beta coefficient Measuring Stand-Alone Risk Most inputs into capital budgeting process are estimates Understand how uncertainties affect our decision to accept/reject a project using the procedures below Used to understand/measure stand-alone risk of project Examines how sensitive NPV is to changes in each input variable Measures the percentage change in NPV that results from a given percentage change in an input Sensitivity Analysis All other variables are held constant at base value Key inputs include: Equipment cost; Change in net operating working capital; Unit sales; Sales price; Variable cost per unit; Fixed operating cost; Tax rate; WACC Possible alternative scenarios with different input values are proposed Change more than one variable at a time Scenario Analysis Probabilities are assigned to each scenario Multiply each scenario’s probability by the NPV Project’s expected NPV and standard deviation/CV of NPV Simulation techniques where the NPV for many scenarios are calculated Risk analysis technique in which probable future events are simulated by a Monte Carlo computer, generating estimated rates of return and risk indexes Simulation Simulation is useful, but complex (Do not need to know the details for AB1201) Leasing To obtain the use of assets, companies can either buy or lease them An arrangement whereby a firm sells asset and simultaneously leases Sale and the asset back for a specified period under specific terms Leaseback Alternative to taking out a mortgage loan A lease under which the lessor maintains and finances the property Lessor maintains and services leased equipment Cost for providing maintenance included in lease payments Frequently not fully amortized - i.e. Payment required under lease contract is not sufficient to recover full cost of equipment Types of Leases Operating - Lessor expects to recover all investment costs through Leases subsequent renewal payments, through subsequent leases, or through the sale of leased equipment Frequently contain cancellation clause - Important for lessee, as equipment can be returned if it is rendered obsolete or no longer needed by lessee’s business A lease that does not provide for maintenance services, is not Financial Leases cancellable, and is fully amortized over its life. Financial Statement Effects Lease vs. Borrowand-Buy Other Factors that Affect Leasing Decisions Leasing is often called off-balance-sheet financing Financing in which assets and liabilities involved (on the lease contract) do not appear on the firm’s balance sheet Financial Accounting Standard Board issued FAS 13, which requires firms to restate their balance sheet to capitalize the lease: (1) Report leased assets as fixed assets (2) Show the present value of future lease payments as liabilities 1. Firm decides to acquire an asset - Decision based on regular capital budgeting procedures 2. How to finance it (by lease or by loan) Calculate NPV under leasing compared against NPV of borrow-and-buy - Already determined that acquiring an asset is a positive NPV project - Funds to purchase the asset can be obtained by borrowing, by retained earnings, or by issuing new stock - Asset can also be leased (under FAS 13, lease would have the same capital structure effect as a loan) In lease analysis, recommended to use after-tax cost of borrowing E.g. Discount cash flows at 6% = 10%(1-0.4) Net Advantage NAL = PV Cost of Owning – PV Cost of Leasing of Leasing Have to include maintenance expense since it is being owned Depreciation is tax deductible Cost of Owning Tax savings of (T)(Depreciation) Analysis Maintenance is tax deductible Maintenance expense = (-Maintenance expense)(1-T) Existence of large residual values on equipment is not likely to bias the decision against leasing - Estimated residual value are expected to be large, by right Estimated owning would be more advantageous than leasing Residual Value - However, if expected residual values are large, competition among leasing companies will force leasing rates down to where potential residual values will be fully recognized in the lease contract rates Leasing could have an advantage for (small) firms that are seeking maximum degree of financial leverage - Because some leases not shown on balance sheet, lease Increase Credit financing can give firm a stronger appearance in a superficial Availability credit analysis - May only be true for smaller firms - Large firms are required to capitalize major leases and report them on balance sheet The Optimal Capital Budget The amount of investments where the marginal cost of capital equals to the returns on the marginal project In theory, accept all positive NPV projects Capital rationing occurs where company chooses not to fund all positive NPV projects - Not enough internally generated cash - Increasing marginal cost of capital Raise expensive external equity (incur flotation cost) Increasing cost of debt and preferred stock as more capital is raised (as firms become riskier) (Lecture 9, Slide 39) Optimal capital budget = $600,000 where rate of return of marginal project = marginal cost of capital Hence accept A, B, C if $600,000 is available, else capital rationing WACC increases with capital budgeting because as we raise more capital, we would run out of retained earnings Need to issue new common stock (which is more expensive) Cost of debt and preferred stock increases as likelihood of default increases as well E-Learning: SME Financing & Careers in Finance Finance for Small and Medium-size Entities (SMEs) Major Financing Sources for SMEs Finance for SMEs refers to the funding of small- and medium-sized enterprises Internal Funds Such as owner’s savings, company’s profit Overdrafts & Bank Short-Term To fund working capital Loans Bank Long-Term To finance asset purchasing, other business development and Loans investment purposes Leasing & Hiring Purchase To purchase capital equipment such as plant, machinery Agreements Stock market Equity & To finance large and long-term projects or investments Corporate Bond Issues Financial capital provided to early-stage, high-potential start-up Venture Capital companies Financial capital from firms specializing in in investing and acquiring Private Equity equity ownership Such as factoring and invoice discounting – to finance short-term working capital Asset-based Factoring: Financial transaction in which a business sells its Finance account receivable (i.e. invoices) to a third party (called a factor) at a discount For short-term working capital Trade Credit: Delays in paying for purchases of goods and Trade Credit services Often provided by suppliers Earnings internally generated by the business and/or supplied informally as trade credit are the main source of financing for SMEs Commercial banks are the main formal suppliers of external finance to small- and medium-sized business Most small business start-ups are largely funded by their owners out of their own savings, money from families, friends, or private investors, etc. While medium-sized public companies can issue bond/stock in the stock market for external finance, medium-sized private companies tend to be highly reliant on banks and/or private equity financiers SMEs account for over 90% of all enterprises, they contribute to 60% of the total value-added in the economy and employ 7 out of 10 of the country’s workforce Over 100 programs administered by various government agencies such as SPRING Singapore, IE Singapore, etc. to help SMEs with their financing issues Government assistance - Tax incentives such as Productivity & Innovation Credit (PIC) - Grants such as Capability Development Grant (CDG) Loans such as government-backed loans for working capital, trade financing and equipment financing, offered through participating financial institutions - Local Enterprise Finance Schemes (LEFS) - Loan Insurance Schemes (LIS) - Micro Loan Program (MLP) Chapter 15: Capital Structure and Leverage Learning Objectives: Understand the risk-return trade-off associated with the use of operating leverage and financial leverage Distinguish between business risk and financial risk Finding the optimal capital structure through maximizing stock price and minimizing WACC - Distinguish between levered beta and unlevered beta - Apply the Hamada Equation - Understand the impact of increasing debt on EPS, cost of equity, cost of debt, and WACC Discuss capital structure theories and use them to explain the capital structure of the firms - MM’s irrelevance theory - Trade-off theory: Trades off tax benefit of debt vs. the bankruptcy costs of debt - Signaling theory - Using debt to constrain managers Capital Structure 2 main sources of capital: 1) Debt – A firm promise to make fixed payments regularly. However, when the firm defaults on payment, bankruptcy may occur 2) Equity – Equity holders receive whatever cash flows that is left over in the firm after paying the debtholders Percentage of debt, preferred stock, and common equity that is used to finance a firm’s asset Capital Structure 𝐷𝑒𝑏𝑡 𝐷𝑒𝑏𝑡 𝑡𝑜 𝐶𝑎𝑝𝑖𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑅𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜 = 𝐷𝑒𝑏𝑡+𝐸𝑞𝑢𝑖𝑡𝑦+𝑃𝑟𝑒𝑓𝑒𝑟𝑟𝑒𝑑 𝑆𝑡𝑜𝑐𝑘 Optimal Capital Structure Reasons Capital Structure Changes over Time The mix of debt, preferred stock, and common equity that maximizes the stock’s intrinsic value Capital structure that maximizes the intrinsic value also minimizes WACC Actual debt ratio > Target: Firm can sell large stock issue and use proceeds to retire debt Stock prices increases, Actual < Target: Issue bonds and use proceeds to repurchase stock Deliberate Deliberately raise new money in a manner to move the actual Actions structure towards the target Interest rate changes due to changes in the general level of rates and/or changes in the firm’s default risk could cause significant Market Actions changes in its debt’s market value Changes in market value of debt and/or equity could result in large changes in its measured capital structure Business and Financial Risk Risks from viewpoint of the corporation Single more important determinant of capital structure Represents the amount of risk that is inherent in the firm’s operations even if it uses no debt financing Uncertainty about future operating income (EBIT) Does not include financing effects Measured by standard deviation of the firm’s return on invested capital (or EBIT) EBIT = Sales – Operating Costs = Quantity*Price – Operating Cost 𝑅𝑂𝐼𝐶 = 𝐸𝐵𝐼𝑇(1−𝑇) 𝐼𝑛𝑣𝑒𝑠𝑡𝑜𝑟−𝑆𝑢𝑝𝑝𝑙𝑖𝑒𝑑 𝐶𝑎𝑝𝑖𝑡𝑎𝑙 Business Risk Financial Risk Competition Firm has monopoly Little risk from competition Stable sales and prices Lowers business risk Uncertainty about demand (sales) More stable the demand Lower its business risk Uncertainty about output prices Factors That Volatile markets More business risk Affect Business Uncertainty about input costs Risk Product, other types of liability Product obsolescence: Faster products becomes obsolete, greater the business risk Foreign risk exposure: Exchange rate fluctuations + Political risks Regulatory risk and legal exposure Operating Leverage Extent to which fixed costs are used in a firm’s operations Generally, more fixed cost More operating leverage More business risk Operating A small sales decline causes a big EBIT decline Leverage Higher fixed cost generally associated with: - Highly automated, capital-intensive firms and industries - Employ highly skilled workers who must be retained and paid even during recessions Although operating leverage comes with higher business risk, it also Trade-Off comes with higher expected EBIT Additional risk concentrated on common stockholders as a result of decision to finance with debt More debt, more financial risk Because have to pay debtholders first, then stockholders Financial Use of debt and preferred stock, which incurs fixed financial charges Leverage Between profitability and risk when we increase debt levels Increases expected profitability to shareholders but also increases the risk to shareholders In turn increases required rate of return of shareholders Trade-Off Hence when determining optimal capital structure that maximizes stock price, need to consider both: 1) Increased profitability 2) Increased risk resulting from use of debt Determining the Optimal Capital Structure Capital structure (mix of debt, preferred, and common equity) at which stock price is maximized - Stock price is affected by future CF and risk of CF - Trades off higher expected profitability against higher risk when we increase debt GOAL: Find the stock price at each level of debt - The debt level that maximizes stock price is the optimal capital structure - To find expected stock price (𝑃̂0 ) at each debt level, find EPS and appropriate 𝑟𝑠 at each debt level When a firm uses no preferred stock, 𝑊𝐴𝐶𝐶 = 𝑤𝑑 𝑟𝑑 (1 − 𝑇) + 𝑤𝑐 𝑟𝑠 Bondholders recognize that if firm has greater Debt/Capital ratio, it increases the risk of financial distress Higher interest rates 𝐷1 𝐷𝑃𝑆 𝐸𝑃𝑆 𝑃̂0 = = = 𝑟𝑠 − 𝑔 𝑟𝑠 𝑟𝑠 Assumption: If all earnings are paid out as dividends, growth rate, g = 0 Recall: g = (1 – Dividend Payout)(ROE) Dividend payout = 1 if all paid as dividends Determine WACC and Capital EPS = DPS if g = 0 Impact of Structure Changes Changing First calculate shares outstanding (Initial – Repurchased) Capital (𝑬𝑩𝑰𝑻−𝒓𝒅 𝑫)(𝟏−𝑻) 𝑬𝑷𝑺 = 𝑺𝒉𝒂𝒓𝒆𝒔 𝑶𝒖𝒕𝒔𝒕𝒂𝒏𝒅𝒊𝒏𝒈 Structure on Stock Price Higher financial leverage usually leads to higher EPS The Hamada Equation The Optimal Capital Structure However, not always necessary to set optimal capital structure at the debt/capital ratio where EPS is maximized - Have to consider risk-return trade off - Higher 𝑟𝑠 from higher financial risk - 𝑏𝐿 = Levered beta (Beta used in CAPM): Determined by 𝐷 both business & financial risk [also known as equity beta] 𝑏𝐿 = 𝒃𝑼 [1 + (1 + 𝑡)( )] - 𝑏𝑈 = Unlevered beta (What we need to find): 𝐸 Determined by business risk only [known as asset beta] Higher financial leverage Higher financial risk faced by shareholders Higher required rate of return by shareholders Higher cost of equity Beta in CAPM changes when capital structure changes - Affects 𝑟𝑠 in 𝑃̂0 Firm’s optimal capital structure can be determined in two ways & both leads to the same results: 1) Maximising stock price 2) Minimising WACC Recognise that inputs are “guesstimates” Capital Capital structure decisions have a large judgmental content as a Structure in result of imprecise numbers Reality Hence, we end up with capital structures varying widely among firms Capital Structure Theory Modigliani-Miller Irrelevance Theory states that under a restrictive set of assumptions, a firm’s value should be unaffected by its capital structure Suggests that it does not matter how a firm finances its operations Hence capital structure is irrelevant Some assumptions are not realistic - But by indicating these conditions, MM provided clues about what is required to make capital structure relevant and hence, to affect the firm’s value Deductibility of interest favours the use of debt financing Tax Benefit of Debt Interest expense is tax deductible Pay less taxes But distributions to shareholders, e.g. dividends, do not reduce taxes Bankruptcy Costs Expected bankruptcy cost depends on: Probability of bankruptcy: - How volatile is your future cash flow? Volatile, more likely to bankrupt Actual cost incurred when in bankruptcy - Legal and accounting fees, liquidation of assets at fire-sales, loss of customers, suppliers, employees, etc. Indirect costs due to threat of bankruptcy - Customers and suppliers refuse to do business with the firm because they think the firm may go bankrupt anytime Firms trade off the tax benefits of debts against problems caused by potential bankruptcy Trade-off Theory: Tax Benefits vs Bankruptcy Costs Signalling Effects Agency Costs Pecking Order Hypothesis Under MM’s Irrelevance Theory, shareholders and managers have the same information on firm’s prospects (symmetric information) Not the case in reality, where managers have more information than outside shareholders (asymmetric information) Signalling theory suggests firms use less debt than what trade-off theory suggests This unused debt capacity helps avoid stock sales, which depress stock price because of signalling effects Firm with favourable prospects should instead raise any required new capital by using new debt, even If this moved its debt ratio beyond the target level In general, announcement of stock offering is generally taken as a signal that the firm’s prospects as seen by the management are not bright & that managers think that the stock is overvalued Investors would sell stocks Stock price falls Debt can constrain managers To make sure that managers earn enough to cover the regular interest payments Failing to do may force firms into bankruptcy and managers lose their jobs as a result Essential because conflicts may arise between managers and shareholders Agency problems When there’s excess cash, managers tend to send the cash on pet projects or perquisites Able to reduce excess cash by funnelling some of it back to shareholders through higher dividends or stock repurchases The sequence in which firms prefer to raise capital: first spontaneous credit, then retained earnings, then other debt, and finally new common stock Logical because no flotation costs incurred to raise capital as spontaneous credit or retained earnings & costs relatively low to issue new debt Flotation costs too high + Asymmetric information makes it even more undesirable to finance new common stock Checklist for Capital Structure Decisions Other factors that firms consider when making capital structure decisions Firms whose sales are relatively stable can safely take on more debt and incur higher fixed charges Sales Stability E.g. Utility companies where they’ve stable demands Holding other factors constant, a company is able to take on more debt if it has more cash on the balance sheet Asset Structure Net Debt = Total Debt – Cash and Equivalents Firm with less operating leverage is better able to employ financial leverage because it will Operating Leverage have less business risk, ceteris paribus Faster-growing firms must rely more heavily on external capital Flotation cost involved in selling common stock > When selling debt Growth Rate At the same time, those firms often face higher uncertainty Tends to reduce willingness to use debt Firms with very high rates of return on investment use relatively little debt Profitability Profitable firms’ high rates of returns enable them to do most of their financing with internally generated funds Higher a firm’s tax rate, greater the advantage of debt because interest is deductible Taxes expense If management currently has voting control but not in a position to buy more stocks, it may choose debt for new financings Control Management may use equity if firm’s financial situation is so weak that use of debt subject it to serious risk of default - However, if too little debt used, management runs the risk of takeover Management can exercise own judgement on proper capital structure Management Conservative managers tend to use less debt Attitudes Aggressive managers tend to use relatively high percentage of debt in quest for higher profits Lender and Rating Corporations often discuss their capital structures with lenders and rating agencies and Agency Attitudes give much weight to their advice Conditions in the stock and bond markets undergo long- and short-run changes that can have an important bearing on a firm’s optimal capital structure Market Conditions E.g. During credit crunch, low-rated companies in need of capital were forced to go to stock market or to short-term debt market regardless of their target capital structure because there was no market for low rated bonds Notes: Factors affecting target capital structure: Increasing in corporate tax rate - Should use more debt - More tax savings Increase in bankruptcy cost - Less debt Higher business risk - Higher uncertainty - Low debt to ensure it can meet debt obligations Others such as management large debt - Should use less debt - Interest expense alr large The optimal debt/capital ratio that maximizes stock price is generally less than debt/capital ratio that maximizes EPS. Because at the capital structure that maximizes EPS, the risk is too high As we shift from cheaper debt to more expensive equity, WACC would always increase - False - Depends on weightage of the components - Cost of debt (less default risk) and equity falls when debt falls (because there is less debt less risk) Chapter 16: Distributions to Shareholders (except 16.3a) Course Wrap Up Learning Objectives: Explain what is dividend policy Discuss the different dividend theories and explain whether dividend policy matters - MM’s dividend irrelevance theory - Bird-in-hand theory - Tax advantages of capital gains - Signalling theory - Clientele effects Discuss what is Dividend Reinvestment Plan (DRIP) and its different forms Understand the difference between cash dividends and stock repurchases and discuss the trade-offs Differentiate between stock splits and stock dividends Dividend Policy Dividend policy has to do with the decision of whether to pay dividends vs retaining funds to reinvest, and also the decision to pay back using cash dividends or repurchase shares Cash flow from operations - Pay off debt holders - For equity holders (assuming no preferred stock) Retain and reinvest in new projects = Capital Gain Yield (because expect dividends to increase) Pay out cash dividends = Dividend Yield Pay out as repurchase shares Target payout ratio is defined as the percentage of net income to be paid out as cash dividends - Should be based on investors’ preferences for dividends vs capital gains - Preference can be considered in terms with constant growth stock valuation model 𝐷 Optimal dividend policy should maximise stock price – 𝑃̂0 = 1 Constant Growth Stock Valuation Model 𝑟𝑠 −𝑔 Essential to strike a balance between current dividends and future growth that maximises stock price Increasing dividends has two opposing effects on stock price: 1) Increase 𝐷1 Upward pressure on stock price 2) Decrease 𝑔 Downward pressure on stock price (because lesser money available for reinvestment) Dividends versus Capital Gains: What Do Investors Prefer? Dividend Irrelevance Theory (Only In A Perfect World) Reasons Some Investors Prefer Dividends (Bird-in-Hand Theory) Reasons Some Investors Prefer Capital Gains (Tax Preference) Proposed by Modigliani and Miller that stock price is determined only by the earning power and risk of its assets (investments) Investors are indifferent between dividends and retention-generated capital gains Given MM’s assumption, investors can create their own dividend policy - If they want cash, they can sell stock - If they do not want cash, they can use dividends to buy stock Implication: Any payout is okay Investors may think dividends paid today are less risky than potential future gains, hence investors prefer dividends Stocks with high dividends Less risky Shareholders require lower returns High stock price Implication: Set a high payout Firm value increases Dividends will be taxed – Capital gains avoids transaction costs from reinvesting dividends Tax advantages of capital gains: - Capital gains usually taxed at a lower rate than dividends, but this differs depending on tax regimes - Taxes of dividends due to in the year they are received, but taxes on capital gains due when the stock is sold (TVM states that $ paid later worth lesser today) To that extent, dividends have a tax disadvantage relative to capital gains, hence shareholders prefer capital gains Important to consider the tax regime that the company operates in - In Singapore, there is no tax on capital gains and dividends Implication: Set a low payout Other Dividend Policy Issues Information Content, or Signalling, Hypothesis Clientele Effect Investors view dividend changes as signals of management’s view of the future Since managers hate to cut dividends, they will not raise dividends unless they think the raise is sustainable - Dividend increase – Good future prospects (that profits are sustainable) - Dividend decrease – Bad future prospects Hence a stock price increase at the time of a dividend increase could reflect higher expectations for future EPS, not a preference for dividends Need to consider information conveyed to shareholders when company cuts or increase dividends Firm’s past dividend policy determines its current clientele of investors Different groups of investors, or clienteles, prefer different policies Implication: Clientele effects impede changing dividend policy. Taxes and brokerage costs hurt investors who have to switch companies. Dividend Reinvestment Plans DRIP: A plan that enables a stockholder to automatically reinvest dividends received back into the stock of the paying firm I.e. Stockholders choose to receive cash dividends or have the company use the dividends to buy more stock in the firm on behalf of the investor 2 types of plans: 1) Open market 2) New stock Cash is given to trustee Trustee buys stock in open market Stock allocated to shareholders Economies of scale Bulk purchase of stocks together Lower brokerage fee Open Market Plan Brokerage costs reduced by volume purchases Convenient, easy way to invest Useful for investors Company issues new stock Stock allocated to shareholder Cash stays within the company Conserves cash (Important for cash strapped New Stock Plan firms) Companies that need capital to use new stock plans Summary of Factors Influencing Dividend Policy Constraints Investment Opportunities Alternative Sources of Capital Effects of Dividend Policy on rs Debt contracts often limit dividend payments to earnings generated after the loan was granted Bond Indentures Also often stipulate that no dividends can be paid unless the current ratio, times-interest-earned ratio, and other safety ratios exceed stated minimum Preferred Stock Typically, common dividends cannot be paid if the company has Restrictions omitted its preferred dividend Legal restriction that dividend payments cannot exceed the balance Impairment of sheet item “retained earnings” Capital Rule Designed to protect creditors Availability of Cash dividend can only be paid with cash Cash To prevent wealthy individuals from using corporations to avoid Penalty Tax on personal taxes Improperly Firm will be subjected to heavy penalties if IRS can Accumulated demonstrate that a firm’s dividend payout ratio is deliberately Earnings being held down to help its stockholders avoid personal taxes Number of If a firm has a large number of profitable investment opportunities, Profitable this will tend to produce a low target payout ratio and vice versa if firm Investment has few good investment opportunities Opportunities Possibility of Accelerating or The ability to accelerate or postpone projects permits a firm to adhere Delaying more closely to a stable dividend policy Projects Firm needs to finance a given level of investment, it can obtain equity by retaining earnings or by issuing new common stock Cos of Selling If flotation costs are high (re well above rs), making it better to New Stock set a low payout ratio and to finance through retention rather than sale of new common stock Ability to If firm can adjust its debt ratio without raising its WACC sharply, it can Substitute Debt pay the expected dividend, even in earnings fluctuate, by additional for Equity borrowing If management is concerned on maintaining control, it may be Control reluctant to sell new stock Shareholders’ preference for dividends 1) Stockholders’ desire for current vs future income 2) The perceived riskiness of dividends vs capital gains 3) The tax advantage of capital gains 4) Information (Signalling) content of dividends Stock Dividends and Stock Splits Stock Splits Stock Dividends Effect on Stock Prices Firm increases the number of shares outstanding 2-for-1 stock split = 100 shares 200 shares Firm issues new shares in lieu of paying a cash dividend Both increases the number of shares outstanding Stock prices fall so to keep investor’s wealth unchanged because firm did not raise new funds Unless the stock dividend and split conveys information (on future prospects) Stock splits/dividends may get us to an “optimal price range”, keeping the price in the optimal range 1. On average, price of company’s stock rises shortly after it announces stock split or dividends 2. One reason that it leads to higher prices is that investors often take stock split and dividends as signals of higher future earnings (positive signal) - Because only companies whose managements believe that things look good tend to split their stocks - Announcement of stock split is taken as a signal that earnings and cash dividends are likely to rise 3. If company announces stock split or dividend its price will tend to rise. HOWEVER, if it does not announce an increase in earnings or dividends within the next few years, stock price generally will drop back down 4. By creating more shares and lowering stock price, stock splits may also increase stock’s liquidity. - Tends to increase the firm’s value - Because by decreasing the price, investors can afford to purchase shates Stock Repurchases The Effects of Stock Repurchases Advantages of Repurchases Disadvantages of Repurchases Conclusions on Stock Repurchases (TB) When companies decide to pay out cash instead of retaining it, they can choose to pay cash dividends or buy back their own stock from stockholders Shares outstanding reduced Shares bought back are held as treasury stock and can be resold in the future to raise capital Company EPS will increase Drop in P/E/ ratio after repurchase May be viewed as a positive signal that the management thinks stock is undervalued - Management has more information than investors Shareholders can choose to sell or hold Repurchases can be used to dispose off temporarily excess cash flows and avoid setting high dividend payout Can be used to make large capital changes May be viewed as a negative signal that the firm has poor investment opportunities Cash dividends are dependable (regular basis) but repurchases are not Firm may have to bid up prices to complete purchase, thus pay too much for its own stocks Because of the deferred tax on capital gains, repurchases have a tax advantage over dividends as a way to distribute income to stockholders. This advantage is reinforced by the fact that repurchases provide cash to stockholders who want cash but also allow those who do not need current cash to delay its receipt. On the other hand, dividends are more dependable and are thus better suited for those who need a steady source of income. Because of signalling effects, companies should not pay fluctuating dividends – that would lower investors’ confidence in the company and adversely affect its cost of equity and its lower stock price. However, cash flows vary over time, as do investment opportunities. To get around this problem, a company can set its dividend at a level low enough to keep dividend payments from constraining operations and then uses repurchases on a more or less regular basis to distribute excess cash. Such procedure Course Summary would provide regular, dependable dividends in addition to supplemental cash flows to those stockholders who want it. Repurchases are also useful when a firm wants to make a large, rapid shift in its capital structure, to distribute cash from a one-time event such as the sale of a division, or to obtain shares for use in an employee stock option plan.