Government of Canada
ICC
Gouvernement Du Canada
ICC
Date : 02/08/2022
Unclassified
For Action
File number : XXXXX
BRIEFING NOTE FOR THE MINISTER OF IMMIGRATION AND
CITIZENSHIP
Tackling Climate Change With Flexible Immigration Policies
ISSUE:
Climate change is a pressing issue that affects the entire globe. As one of the largest
contributors to emissions that cause global warming, it is important to find ways to
reduce our emissions or limit the population. If immigrants from lower emission
countries move to Canada, it will result in a net increase in the overall carbon emissions.
It is therefore important to revise our current immigration policy to reflect this pressing
issue.
BACKGROUND
Studies have consistently shown that if the world remain on the current trajectory, in the
next few decades, the total global warming will reach 2 degrees Celsius. Studies estimate
that this increase in temperature is the critical point in which many self-perpetuating
events will start happening after which the damage will be irreversible.
This global warming comes mainly from what is known as “the greenhouse effect”. As
gases released from different sources get into the atmosphere, they trap the heat inside the
atmosphere and thus cause a raise in temperature. The main causes of the greenhouse
effect are water (in the form of water vapor and clouds) which accounts for 75% of the
effect and Co2 which accounts for 20%. Water levels remained relatively stable
throughout the years, but it has been shown that Co2 levels increased drastically since the
industrial revolution and that this increase is mainly from anthropogenic sources.
The effects of this warming are a global danger, The upper 3000 meters of the ocean have
warmed, causing an imbalance in the aquatic life and therefore to many populations who
depend on fishing. Ice caps are melting, raising the ocean levels and causing shoreline
cities to be in flooding danger. A great deposit of methane is trapped under the
permafrost in Siberia, if released the gas will increase the warming to unprecedented
level.
CURRENT STATUS
Canada currently ranks 7th in per capita Co2 emissions and currently, therefore any
immigration coming from lower emitting countries will result in a net increase of carbon
emissions. Canada’s current goal is to welcome 431,645 new permanent residents in
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2022, 447,055 in 2023, and 451,000 in 2024 to tackle the aging population and the labour
shortages. These are record breaking numbers and will result in a big increase in net
emissions as it is most likely that these immigrants will come from a country that is lower
in emissions.
KEY CONSIDERATIONS
When immigrants move to a different country, they tend to adapt their standard of living
accordingly. In the case of immigration to Canada this will mean an increase in carbon
footprint of the immigrants. Looking at Canada’s immigration goals, it will mean that in
the span of 3 years more than 1.3 million people will arrive to Canada or a net average
increase of 12 million metric tons of CO2.
The literature on climate change led to the creation of the Environmental Kuznets Curve
hypothesis, which states that the relationship between economic growth and
environmental degradation has an inverted U shape, meaning that it is at first increasing
and then decreasing after a critical point. The goal of our policy should be to get
developing nations to the decreasing part of the curve as fast as possible.
Canada has a high GDP per capita and many advanced technological and educational
institutes that can benefit developing nations. Many immigrants seek to take advantage of
these institutions and improve their quality of life. The problem arises when these people
prefer to stay rather than to go back to their original country and put their knowledge to
use. In Canada the stay rate of international students is 33% while on average 74% of
students change their status for work related reasons, many of these also use the family
reunification program to bring their relatives as well.
Canada’s immigrants earnings record has deteriorated since 1980 due to a large number
being from the family reunification and refugee programs that do not require the point
system on which economic immigrants are subject to. In 2021 23% of immigrants were
older than 50 or younger than 15. The latter are less of a problem as they will eventually
enter the workforce, but the former will create and additional burden for the Canadian
taxpayers.
By 2045 the dependent population is projected to reach 46%, a substantial burden on the
rest of the population, therefore there is a need for a labor force or a tax revenue large
enough to support this aging demographic. 25% of this dependent populations are people
above 65. Canada’s fertility rate has diminished in the last decades so to offset this older
dependent population, Canada can increase the age of retirement or increase working
hours but studies have shown that there is a reluctance to adopt such solutions, therefore
Canada relies on immigration to fill the labor shortages such an aging demographic
creates.
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It is a short-sighted solution since second generation immigrants tend to assimilate and
their fertility rate converges to that of the country they immigrated to, which ends up
creating a larger and larger proportion of people above retirement age. It is better to focus
on limiting immigration and incentivizing having children to better control the
population.
RECOMMENDATIONS
Because of the issues presented above, it is recommended to create a new temporary
immigrant class in partnership with businesses and educational institutions. We can keep
the level of immigration unchanged, while creating subsidised programs where workers
can work in specific in demand fields and study at the same time in fields relating to
green technologies or environmental studies. After receiving the technical know-how
while also helping with labor shortages, these immigrants will return to their original
countries to put their education into practice helping to get their countries to the
decreasing part of the Environmental Kuznets Curve. Canada can also invest in
businesses abroad to create jobs and incentivize their return without the loss in quality of
life while retaining some profit from the development projects which in turn will alleviate
the issue of the dependent population levels.
At the same time, limiting the family reunification program to only people of working
age or younger will help to limit the increase in dependent population and incentivize
those who have family abroad to return home.
Should you require additional information, do not hesitate to contact me, Guy Koppel,
senior economist for the Government of Ontario at XXX-XXX-XXXX.
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