MFA Financial Risk Management Financial Objectives Stable Earnings Timely Discharge of liabilities Timely debt recovery Optimization of working capital Redcuced Cost of capital (A1) (i) (ii) (iii) (iv) (v) (vi) Factors causing risk to above objectives Interest rates Exchange rates Price of commodities/services relevant to business Credit worthiness of debtors Quality of Financial Assets Ability to Access to finance (A2) (i) (ii) (iii) Types of financial Risks Market Risk Credit risk Liquidity Risk (B) Financial Risk Management Process (ISO 31000 Business Risk Manangement) (i) Communication & Consultation This task helps understand stakeholders’ interests and concerns, to check that the risk management process is focusing on the right elements, and also helps explain the rationale for decisions and for particular risk treatment options AH (A) (i) (ii) (iii) (iv) (v) CAF6 Scope, context and criteria Scope, context and criteria involve defining the scope of the process and understanding the external and internal context (iii) Risk assessment It is the overall process of risk identification, risk analysis and risk evaluation. Risk identification involves identifying what could prevent us from achieving our objectives. Risk analysis is understanding the sources and causes of the identified risks; studying probabilities and consequences given the existing controls, to identify the level of residual risk. Risk evaluation involves comparing risk analysis results with risk criteria to determine whether the residual risk is tolerable. (iv) Risk treatment changing the magnitude and likelihood of consequences, both positive and negative, to achieve a net increase in benefit (v) Monitoring and review This task consists of measuring risk management performance against indicators, which are periodically reviewed for appropriateness. (vi) Recording & Reporting The risk management process and its outcomes should be documented and reported through appropriate mechanisms. (C) Financial Risk Management Tools Market Risk These are the financial risks that are associated with the uncertainty about the market rates and prices at which a business can deal in commodities, services, foreign exchange and financing. (C1) Foreign Exchange Rate Risk The purpose of hedging an exposure to currency risk is to remove (or reduce) the possibility that a future transaction involving a foreign currency will have to be made at a less favourable exchange rate than expected. M (ii) First of all you will have to understand what is risk in it ???? Foreign Currency Receipt Foreign Currency Payment Receipt is due in future & Risk is that Less payment will be received as compared to today payment is due in future & Risk is that Extra payment will be paid as compared to today Following Tools are available to hedge this risk (i) (ii) (ii) (iv) (C2A) Forward Contracts Money Market Hedge Currency Future Currency Option Forward contracts A forward exchange contract is a contract entered into ‘now’ for settlement at an agreed future date (or at any time between two agreed future dates) It is a contract between a customer and a bank for the purchase or sale of: • a specified foreign currency; • for delivery at a specified future date • at a specified rate Note MAH commonly-quoted forward rates are for settlement in one month, three months, six months and possibly one year Foreign currency payment(Net Basis) Mirza Ali Hassan ,FCA Foreign currency receipt(Net Basis) 1 Notes & Examples & Past Papers MFA Financial Risk Management CAF6 Notes MAH Forward contracts can be customised these are not standardised like future Hedge Arrangement settlement date should be the same date on which actual transaction will occur/mature AH Class Ex- 1 MAH [Delivery] Today is 1st July 2023 Ali Limited [AL] a pakistani company is liable to pay 12,000 $ on 1st October 2023 Rs per $ 1st July 2023 250 On 1st July AL agreed with Bank to buy 12000 $ after 3 months @ Rs 270 Required Caculate Gain/(loss) and payment amount if on 1st October spot Exchange rate is (a) Rs 274 per $ b) Rs 263 per $ Class Ex- 2 MAH [Delivery] Today is 1st July 2023 Ali Limited [AL] a pakistani company is expecting to receive 17,000 $ on 1st August 2023 from debtors Rs per $ 1st July 2023 260 On 1st July AL agreed with Bank to sell 17000 $ after 1 months @ Rs 268 Required Caculate Gain/(loss) and receipt amount if on 1st August spot Exchange rate is (a) Rs 277 per $ b) Rs 261 per $ Class Ex- 3 MAH [Net basis] Today is 1st July 2023 Ali Limited [AL] a pakistani company is liable to pay 15,000 $ on 1st October 2023 Rs per $ Rs per $ Spot 3 months Forward[Maturing on 1st october] 1st July 2023 250 270 1st October 2023 275 N/A Forward contract shall be settled on Net basis on maturity date Required (a) Design Hedge through Forward Contract (b) Gain /(loss) on Hedge (c) Net Payment (d) Effective exchange rate M Class Ex- 4 MAH [Net basis] Today is 1st July 2023 Ali Limited [AL] a pakistani company is expecting to receive 25,000 $ on 1st August 2023 from debtors Rs per $ Rs per $ Spot 1 months Forward[Maturing on 1st August] 1st July 2023 245 270 1st August 2023 266 N/A Forward contract shall be settled on Net basis on maturity date Required (a) Design Hedge through Forward Contract (b) Gain /(loss) on Hedge (c) Net Receipt (d) Effective exchange rate Direct Quote Rs per $ [LCY/FCY] Rs per $ 244:248 Left Hand side Right Hand side Bank Buying Rate Bank selling Company Selling Rate Company Buying Rate Calculation of Forward rate via premium /discount Spot Rate Spot Rate (i) (ii) (iii) Mirza Ali Hassan ,FCA Add Premium Given Less discount given Exam Notes MAH[Direct Quote] We (Company) buy at high and sell at Low Finding LCY from FCY we always multiply with rate Lower value currency is strong currency 2 Notes & Examples & Past Papers MFA Financial Risk Management Indirect Quote $ per Rs [FCY/LCY] $ per Rs 0.0040:0.0041 Left Hand side Right Hand side CAF6 0.0041 Bank selling Bank Buying Rate 0.0040 Company Buying Rate Company Selling Rate Calculation of Forward rate via premium /discount Spot Rate Spot Rate (i) (ii) (iii) Less Premium Given Add discount given Exam Notes MAH[Direct Quote] We (Company) buy at Low and sell at high Finding LCY from FCY we always divide with rate Higher value currency is strong currency Class Ex- 5 (ICAP book ) A UK company expects to receive US$75,000 in six months from a US customer and it wishes to hedge the exposure to currency risk by arranging a forward contract The following rates are available (US$/£1): AH Spot (£1=) 1.7530 - 1.7540 Six months forward '240 - 231 The dollar is quoted forward at a premium. The premium is shown in ‘points’ of price Required : What is the amount that the company can fix its future income from the US dollars? (C2B) Money Market Hedge A money market hedge is another method of creating a hedge against an exposure to currency risk. Instead of hedging with a forward exchange contract, a company can create a hedge by borrowing or lending short-term in the international money markets, to fix an effective exchange rate ‘now’ for a future currency transaction. Foreign Currency Receipt The company borrows an amount of the foreign currency immediately with a repayment time matching with the time that the future foreign currency receipt will be received. The future receipt in the foreign currency will be used to repay the loan with interest. The amount borrowed together with the accumulated interest for the borrowing period should, therefore, be equal to the amount of the future currency receipt. Step #1 Step #2 Step #3 Determine Loan amount in FCY (Receipt in FCY /1+i) Convert FCY in LCY @ Spot rate & deposit in local bank account At maturity FCY receipt shall be used to pay FCY loan & Deposit amount inclusive of interest can be used to calcuate Effective exchange rate Note MAH * Company deposit rate is low and borrowing rate is high Class Ex- 6 (ICAP book ) A UK company expects to receive US$800,000 in three months’ time. Spot three-month interest rates currently available in the money markets are Deposits US dollar British pound 4.13% 6.50% Borrowing 4.25% 6.63% The spot exchange rate (US/£1) is 1.7770 – 1.7780. M Required : Required (a) (b) (c) (d) Foreign Currency Payment Step #1 Step #2 Step #3 Step #4 Step #5 Design Hedge through Money Market Hedge Gain /(loss) on Hedge Net Receipt Effective exchange rate 2,504.24 452,448.00 1.7682 Buy FCY @ spot ( FCY to pay /1+i FCYdeposit) from LCY borrowed in S#2 Borrow in LCY to buy this FCY amount(Step#1) Invest FCY in FCY account deposit rate Pay FCY obligation via Deposited FCY amount(including interest) Pay off LCY loan including interest & calculate Effective exchange rate Class Ex- 7 (MAH ) Today is 1st July 2023 Ali Limited [AL] a pakistani company is liable to pay 5000 $ on 1st October 2023 Rupees per $ Spot exchange rate 206 - 208 Currency US$ PKR Deposit Borrow Per annum 3.00% 3.50% 8.00% 9.50% Required : Required (a) (b) (c) (d) Mirza Ali Hassan ,FCA Design Hedge through Money Market Hedge Gain /(loss) on Hedge Net payment Effective exchange rate 3 Notes & Examples & Past Papers MFA Financial Risk Management (C2.C) CAF6 Currency futures Currency futures are contracts for the purchase/sale of a standard quantity of one currency in exchange for a second currency. Futures contracts are priced at the exchange rate for the transaction. Foreign currency payment(Net basis) Foreign currency receipt (Net basis) AH Note MAH Futures are standarized in nature as compared to Forward Futures contracts can not be bought in fraction (round off to nearest) e.g. september future means maturing in september Tick = point = 10,000 part of contract means .01% Value Tick= Contract price x .01% x 1 Rs Loss gain amount = value per tick x 10,000 x gain loss per currency x # of contracts If fututr contract is in LCY then while designing hedge reverse rule shall apply Class Ex- 8 (ICAP Book ) A Pakistani company expects to receive US$1,200,000 in July, in three months’ time, and it wants to hedge its exposure with currency futures. The current spot price is Rs.174.0000/$. A futures contract is for $125,000 September futures is Rs. 172.2350 per $1. September spot rate is Required (a) (b) (c) (d) (C2.D) Design Hedge through Future Gain /(loss) on Hedge Net Receipts Effective exchange rate Rs.175.135Per $ 3625000 206537000 172.1141667 Currency options The main features of currency options have already been described. • A currency option gives its holder the right to buy (call option) or sell (put option) a quantity of one currency in exchange for another, on or before a specified date, at a fixed rate of exchange (the strike rate for the option). • Currency options can be purchased over-the-counter or on an exchange. Currency options are traded on some exchanges, notably the Philadelphia Stock Exchange, and options on currency futures are traded on the CME exchange in Chicago. • Traded currency options are for a standard quantity of one currency in exchange for another currency, and strike prices are quoted as exchange rates. The premiums are normally quoted as an amount in one currency per unit of the other currency. For example, traded options on currency futures for US$ - £ are for £62,500 and are priced in US cents per £1 FCY payment Buy Call Option (x) (x) M Net payment Actual Payment amount Option Premium Fee FCY Receipt Put option Net Receipt Actual receipt amount Option Premium Fee x (x) Rule : Exercise if beneficial Not MAH if Contract of currency option is in local currency then FCY payment Put option & FCY receipt call option Class Ex- 9 (ICAP Book ) A US company expects to pay 1 million euros to a supplier in Belgium. It is now November and the payment is due in March Each currency option is for 125,000 euros. We shall suppose that the company chooses a strike price of 1.2400 (US$/€1) for the options, and that the premium for a March call option at this strike price is 3.43 US cents per euro. The company should buy 8 call option contracts (€1,000,000/€125,000 per contract). The cost of the premium will be $34,300 (1,000,000 × $0.0343). Class Ex- 10 (MAH ) A Pakistani company will pay 5.32 million US $ on 1st March. Standard contract size is 0.5 million $. Option premium is presented in cents per Rupee as follows Mirza Ali Hassan ,FCA Strike Price is Rs per $ 1.5 Call 31st March 30th June 1 2 Required Calculate Net payment in $ if on 1st March Spot rate is (a) Rs 1.42 per $ (b) Rs 1.7 per $ (5.32*1.42)+55 (5.5*1.5)+55- (0.18*1.7) Put 31st March 3 30th June 4 7.6094 7.999 4 Notes & Examples & Past Papers MFA Financial Risk Management (C3) CAF6 Marker rate risk of Commodity The risk of loss due to market price fluctuation of a commodity relevant to the business can be hedged by using derivatives available in commodity exchanges Future Contracts Forward Contracts (C3A) Commodity Forward A forward contract is a contract entered into ‘now’ for settlement at an agreed future date (or at any time between two agreed future dates). It is an over the counter contract between a buyer and seller for: a specified quantity; of a specified commodity; for delivery at a specified future date at a specified rate Class Ex- 11 (ICAP ) A sugar producer estimates 14.55 tons of sugar will be available for sale in three months’ time. The following are relevant information Price needs to be hedged is Rs. 120,000 per ton. Forward contract on one ton of sugar with three months to expiry is available at Rs. 130,000. After three months, price of sugar is 145,000/ton Required Caluclate total sales value in Rupees Commodity Future Commodity futures are futures contracts for the sale and purchase of commodities, such as wheat, oil, copper, gold, rubber, soya beans, coffee, cotton, sugar, and so on. Futures contracts have some special features AH (C3B) (i) (ii) (iii) They are standardised contracts. Every futures contract for the purchase/sale of a particular item is identical to every other futures contract for the same item, with the only exception that their settlement dates/delivery dates may differ. They are traded on an exchange, rather than negotiated ‘over-the-counter’. Such contracts cannot be tailored to the users’ requirements Class Ex- 12 (ICAP ) A sugar producer estimates 14.55 tons of sugar will be available for sale in three months’ time. The following are relevant information Price needs to be hedged is Rs. 120,000 per ton Futures contract on one ton of sugar with three months to expiry is at Rs. 130,000 After three months, price of sugar is 145,000/ton Required (a) (b) (c) (d) Design Hedge through Future Gain /(loss) on Hedge Net Sales Effective Rate per ton (-15000*15)=225000 1884750 129,536 Class Ex- 13 (ICAP ) A wheat trader estimates demand from her customers in next four months as 13.68 tons of wheat. The following are relevant information: Spot price is Rs. 55,000 per ton Futures contract on one ton of sugar with four months to expiry is at Rs. 58,000 Required : (a) Design Hedge through Future (b) Gain /(loss) on Hedge (c) Net Purchase (d) Effective Rate per ton (C1) Interest Rate Risk: A movement in interest rates can affect companies in either a positive or a negative way If a company has borrowed at a variable rate of interest, it will have to pay higher interest costs if the interest rate goes up, and lower interest costs if the rate goes down. M (a) 3000x14=42000 792480 57,930 Mirza Ali Hassan ,FCA (b) If a company has borrowed at a fixed rate of interest, for example by issuing bonds, it will continue to pay the same rate of interest even if market interest rates go down. (c) If company has invested in fixed rate bonds a rise in interest yields will result in a fall in the price of existing fixed rate bonds. A fall in the market interest rate will send bond prices up. 5 Notes & Examples & Past Papers MFA Financial Risk Management CAF6 Managing Interest Rate Risks The few options include Forward Rate Agreement (FRA) Interest Rate Future Interest Rate options (C1.A) Forward Rate Agreement (FRA) A forward rate agreement (FRA) is a forward contract for an interest rate. FRAs are negotiated ‘over-the-counter’ with a bank. It is a contract arranged ‘now’ that fixes the rate of interest for a future loan or deposit period starting at some time in the future. An FRA is a binding agreement between a bank and a customer. It is an agreement that fixes an interest rate ‘now’ for a future interest period. An FRA for an interest period starting at the end of month 3 and lasting until the end of month 9 is mentioned as a 3v9 FRA or a 3/9 FRA. Loan Borrowing Deposit amount Class Ex- 14 (ICAP ) Suppose that a company knows that it will need to borrow Rs.5 million in three months’ time for a period of six months If the bank’s FRA rates for 3 v 9 FRAs are 5.40 – 5.36 AH The company has fixed the rate that it will pay on the loan at 5.4%. Suppose that at the end of month 3, six-month KIBOR is 6.25%. Required (a) Design Hedge through FRA (b) Gain/(loss) on FRA 21250 (c) Net interest cost 135000 (d) Effective Rate 5.40% Class Ex- 15 (ICAP ) On January 1, 202X ABC Company is planning to borrow Rs. 30 million for a period of six months starting from April 1, 202X. ABC wants to lock the rate of interest today for the planned period of borrowing Today the bank’s FRA rates for 3 v 9 FRAs are 5.50 – 5.47 and KIBOR is the reference rate in the contract. (a) (b) (C1.B) What should ABC do to lock the interest rate today? Calculate the future value of settlement of the FRA on April 1, 202X if: (i) Six-month KIBOR is 6.25%. (ii) Six-month KIBOR is 4.955%. Gain Rs Loss Rs 112500 82500 Interest Rate Futures Futures contracts are similar to forward with more formalities and legal protection for investors. Future contracts also offer a decided interest rate for a specified amount and dates. These contracts are offered through third-party intermediaries Future contract: There is always a standard size of future contracts. For example, size of future contract of June 202X is Rs. 1,000,000. One can only buy or sell in multiples of Rs. 1,000,000. Short-term interest futures are priced up to a theoretical maximum of 99.9999 and each tick is 0.0001 in price. A tick represents an interest rate of 0.01% per annum Buying and selling IRF A short-term interest rate future (STIR) is a contract for the purchase and sale of a notional deposit, usually a three-month bank deposit. The futures price for STIRs is the annual interest rate. However, the rate is deducted from 100, which means that: A rate of 4% per year is indicated by a futures price of 96.0000 (100 – 4) A rate of 5.2175% is indicated by a futures price of 94.7825 A price of 93.5618 represents an annual interest rate for the three-month deposit of 6.4382% M (a) (b) (c) when interest rates go up, the value of a future will fall, and when interest rates fall, the price of the future will rise. Loan Borrowing Notes MAH Value of tick is = Deposit amount Contract Price x.01%xn/12 Class Ex- 16 (ICAP ) A company will need to borrow Rs. 8 million from the June for 3 months It is now January The current spot KIBOR rate is 3.50% (for both three months and six months) and the current June KIBOR futures price is the same, 96.50. The value of 1 tick for a KIBOR futures contract is Rs. 25 (Rs. 1,000,000 × 0.0001 × 3/12) Suppose that in May when the company borrows Rs. 8 million, the three-month and six-month spot KIBOR rate is 4.25% and the June futures price is the same, 95.75 (100 – 4.25) Mirza Ali Hassan ,FCA 6 Notes & Examples & Past Papers MFA Financial Risk Management (a) (b) (c) (d) Design Hedge through Future Gain/(loss) on future Net interest cost Effective Rate CAF6 15000 -85000+15000= -70,000 3.50% Class Ex- 17 (ICAP ) On January 1, 202X, XYZ Company plans to borrow Rs. 57 million on April 1, 202X for six months. Standard future contract size is Rs.10 million. The current spot KIBOR rate is 7.00% (for both three months and six months) and the current September KIBOR futures price is the same, 93.00 The value of 1 tick for a KIBOR futures contract is Rs. 500 (Rs. 10,000,000 × 0.0001 × 6/12) Required : (a) How should XYZ Company hedge the interest rate risk using future contracts? (b) Calculate the total effective borrowing cost if on April 1, 202X the three-month and six-month spot KIBOR rate is 6.50% and the September 30, 202X futures price is also the same, 93.50 (100 – 6.5). [Total loss on Future is 150,000 and actual cost is 1852500 and net cost is 2002500 and effective rate is 7.02%] (C1.C) Interest Rate Options [Technically IRG] An interest rate option grants the buyer of the option the right, but not the obligation, to deal at an agreed interest rate at a future maturity date. On the date of expiry of the option, the buyer must decide whether or not to exercise the right AH The option guarantees a maximum or a minimum rate of interest for the option holder, and interest rate options are therefore sometimes called interest rate guarantees A call option is the right to buy (in this case to receive interest at the specified rate). It guarantees a maximum rate of interest A put option is the right to sell (that is, the right to pay interest at the specified rate). It guarantees a minimum rate of interest Class Ex- 18 (ICAP ) A company intends to borrow US$10 million in four months’ time for a period of three months, but is concerned about the volatility of the US dollar LIBOR rate The three-month US$ LIBOR rate is currently 3.75%, but might go up or down in the next four months The company therefore takes out a borrower’s option with a strike rate of 4% The expiry date is in four months’ time. The option premium is the equivalent of 0.5% per annum of the notional principal (a) a) If the three-month US dollar LIBOR rate is higher than the option strike rate at expiry, the option will be exercised. If the three-month LIBOR rate is 6%, the company will exercise the option, and the option writer will pay the option holder an amount equal to the difference between the strike rate for the option (4%) and the reference rate (6%). The payment will be based on 2% of $10 million for three months. (This payment is discounted because a borrower’s option is settled at the beginning of the notional interest period, and not at the end of the interest period). (b) If the three-month US dollar LIBOR rate is lower than the option strike rate at expiry, the option will not be exercised. For example, if the LIBOR rate after four months is 3%, the option will not be exercised and will lapse. Solution (a) (b) 4.50% 3.50% Class Ex- 19 (ICAP ) Best Trading Limited needs to borrow US$20 million in six months’ time for a period of four months. The four-month US$ LIBOR rate is currently 3.00%, but might go up or down in the next six months. The borrower’s option is available at a premium of 0.2% per annum with a strike rate of 3.35% with expiry date in six months’ time Compute effective interest rate for Best Trading Limited, if: Required (a) (b) D The three-month LIBOR rate is 3.9% at the expiry date. Three-month US dollar LIBOR rate is 3% at the expiry 3.55% 3.20% Credit Risk Tools are as follows: M Credit Limits Regular monitoring Guarantees Credit Insurance D1 Credit Limits The company can have a broader credit policy to set varying credit limits for different customers based on pre defined criteria. For example, the following could be a policy for credit: Category • Listed companies with minimum B¯ credit rating • All other listed companies • Private companies • Partnerships and individuals Max. limit Rs.40 million Rs.10 million Rs. 2 million None The credit limit for a particular customer is set within the maximum limit given in the policy based on other factors. The data analytics tools have enabled the companies to use big data to have a predictive analysis of a particular customer to set the credit limit D2 Mirza Ali Hassan ,FCA Regular monitoring Risk profile of a customer depends on various variables, such as, business performance, financial ratios, credit rating and debt burden. Regular monitoring of changes in these variables helps the companies to manage the risk specific to a particular customer. Risk can be managed by adjusting the credit limit, asking for further securities or in extreme case discontinuing business with the customer. 7 Notes & Examples & Past Papers MFA Financial Risk Management Guarantees Asking for credit guarantee is a risk sharing strategy whereby customer arranges a third party’s guarantee (usually banks offer these services). D4 Credit Insurance Credit risk can be managed by shifting the risk to insurer. The credit insurance is arranged by the company offering credit to customers, for which cost of premium is incurred. E Liquidity Risk Companies use various methods to avoid the risk of incurring losses resulting from the failure to pay obligations on time. Two key tools are discussed in following paragraphs E1 Standing credit lines Companies arrange credit lines and overdraft facilities to manage the liquidity risk. E2 Regular monitoring of working capital ratios Companies keep a close watch on working capital trends to take timely corrective measures. Companies regularly monitor and manage unnecessary inventory built up, lack of actions on delayed debt recovery or addition of customers without evaluating the impact on working capital. M AH D3 CAF6 Mirza Ali Hassan ,FCA 8 Notes & Examples & Past Papers MFA Financial Risk Management CAF6 AH Question -1 (Spring 2022 Question-7) M Question -2 (Autumn 2022 Question-8) Mirza Ali Hassan ,FCA 9 Notes & Examples & Past Papers MFA Financial Risk Management CAF6 M AH Question -3 (Spring 2023 Question-9) Mirza Ali Hassan ,FCA 10 Notes & Examples & Past Papers