Coursepack MRKT459 W22

MRKT 459 Winter 2022 Retail Management Professor Marie-Josée Lamothe In accordance with Canadian Copyright Law, reproduction of the works in this anthology, in whole or in part, without the express permission of the author and/or publisher is strictly prohibited. © 2022 McGill University All rights reserved for this anthology For all works included in this anthology, McGill University has obtained express permission from COPIBEC, Harvard Business School Publishing (HBSP) or other holder of the publishing rights. Images courtesy of McGill University Bookstore MRKT459 Retail Management Professor Marie- Josee Lamothe Winter 2022 Table of Contents 1. From Franchise to Start-up: The Birth of LiHo Bubble Tea ........................... 5 a. By S. Ramaswami and A. Wong, SMU, 2020 b. SMU-20-0003TN 2. Planet Fitness: No Judgements, No Lunks .................................................. 19 a. University of Michigan, October 2019 b. Product ID#: 5-842-367 3. Amazon: Merging Digital and Physical Worlds for Market Growth ............. 43 a. Arizona University, Jan 2020 b. TB0589-PDF-ENG 4. Amazon Go: Venturing Into Traditional Retail .............................................. 50 a. University of Western Ontario, Richard IVEY School of Business b. . W17397 5. Amazon.com: Conquering the Grocery's Last Mile ...................................... 61 a. University of Western Canada - Richard IVEY School of Business b. W18255 6. Social Commerce: How Pinduoduo and Instagram Challenge Alibaba and Amazon in e-commerce .................................................................................. 73 a. By Jason Davis, Insead, 2020 b. IN1695 7. Pinduoduo: 300+ Million Shoppers Teaming for Good Deals ...................... 92 a. ACRC, University of Hong Kong b. HK1167-PDF-ENG 8. How to Sell Skin Care at Every Price .......................................................... 114 a. https://www.businessoffashion.com/case-studies/beauty/how-to-sell-skin-careat-every-price-download-the-case-study 9. 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Tom Hunsaker Mary B. Teagarden William E. Youngdahl Amazon: Merging Digital and Physical Worlds for Market Growth Physical-world retailing is a cagey business. Jeff Bezos, CEO, Amazon Retail shopping models had long been considered binary—either e-commerce or brick and mortar. In practice, the industry involved a long spectrum with pure e-commerce on one end and pure brick and mortar on the other end. In between, many different models were emerging, like ordering online and picking up in-store (Walmart’s Grocery Pickup1), shopping in-store and ordering online (Warby Parker2 and Bonobos3 made their name in this space—largely facilitating the showroom behavior of consumers), digitally enhanced physical shopping (several companies hold patents in this space with virtual reality promising to push this model), and many others. By 2019, Amazon was the world’s most valuable online retailer exceeding $1 trillion (USD).4 So, when the company announced the purchase of Whole Foods and further committed to the expansion of Amazon Go store locations, many questioned the strategic value.5 Why would a pioneering company so clearly successful in the digital realm seek to enter the more traditional brick and mortar space? Amazon Amazon was founded in 1994 by Princeton graduate and former Wall Street vice-president, Jeff Bezos, who quit his job and moved to Seattle to participate in the internet boom of the time. On the early cusp of the digital economy, Bezos launched Amazon.com in 1995 to sell books online—fueled by the notion of the “virtual” warehouse—allowing for a wider selection without the cost of extensive inventories. Envisioning the internet’s broader reach, shortly thereafter Bezos created a list of more than 20 products he thought could be successfully sold online. The company’s IPO in 1997, under the symbol AMZN, further capitalized the expansion of book sales and allowed the company to market other merchandise. Over the next decade, Amazon prioritized volume and market share growth over profitability, a strategy supported by patient investors. By the early 2000s, Amazon had developed the reputation for convenient online shopping featuring a vast array of products. 2013 marked the beginning of a meteoric valuation climb for the company, fueled largely by growing global interest in the digital economy and Amazon’s ability to leverage its online retail position to support ancillary digital offerings in media, cloud computing, and more through Amazon web services, and a bevy of other sectors. In addition to price accessibility and sales growth, the company focused extensively on customer convenience https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1018724/000119312507093886/dex991.htm. Retrieved 12 May 2019; https:// www.produceretailer.com/article/news-article/walmart-snagging-these-shoppers-grocery-pickup. 2 https://www.warbyparker.com/. Retrieved 4 June 2019. 3 https://bonobos.com/. Retrieved 7 June 2019. 4 NASDAQ: AMZN. Retrieved May 14, 2019. 5 wholefoodsmarket.com/news/amazon-and-whole-foods-market-announce-acquisition-to-close-this-monday-wil. Retrieved January 10, 2019. 1 Copyright © 2020 Thunderbird School of Global Management, a unit of the Arizona State University Knowledge Enterprise. This case was written by Professors B. Tom Hunsaker, Mary B. Teagarden, and William E. Youngdahl for the sole purpose of providing material for class discussion. It is not intended to illustrate either effective or ineffective handling of a managerial situation. Any reproduction, in any form, of the material in this case is prohibited unless permission is obtained from the copyright holder. 43 Authorized for use only in the course MRKT 459 Retail Management_F21 at McGill University taught by Marie-Josee Lamothe from Sep 01, 2021 to Dec 31, 2021. Use outside these parameters is a copyright violation. A07-20-0007 Despite Amazon’s online retailing success, the company depended largely on a single modality that constrained the overall customer experience and potentially limited growth. For example, some existing and potential customers liked to hold a physical book before buying it. Others were not comfortable with packages being left at unsecured doorsteps. Home security videos of package-grabbers appeared frequently on social media, especially during holiday seasons. Additionally, while some items, like food, could be delivered to homes, many customers liked the option of being able to touch and smell their fresh produce before buying it. But it wasn’t clear if experimenting with different modalities could cause Amazon to lose any of its highly focused and wellhoned advantages in online retail. Amazon Books Amazon opened its first Amazon Books retail store (see Exhibit 2) in Seattle in November 2015. The company implemented some interesting changes from traditional bookstores. For example, books were displayed face out instead of showing just the spine. Placards listed the average Amazon customer rating for each book. To some, this venturing into bricks-and-mortar bookstores served as an irony since it was entering the very market that many accused it of destroying with its online bookselling business. Amazon Prime members could use their Prime mobile app to scan the front of any book to reveal the Prime pricing for the book that was generally lower than the retail pricing for non-Prime shoppers. The company hoped to merge technology with elements of the online buying experience, such as ratings, that had become so familiar to its online retail customers. Amazon Hub Locker Amazon Hub Locker resulted from friction the company perceived in doorstep delivery, with a particular focus on the United States. For some, largely business-to-consumer customers, doorstep delivery was not always the most convenient, and certainly not the most secure, buying experience. Random deliveries largely conducted during the day were challenging for many who worked or who otherwise couldn’t be available to receive their package. Leaving parcels unprotected on doorsteps was also problematic, especially in large apartment complexes that experienced significant foot traffic and transient populations. By installing an Amazon Hub Locker in a large apartment complex, residents could enter a secure code to access a locker from which they could retrieve their packages. While the Hub Locker was a physical facility, it was completely integrated with Amazon’s cloud-based applications that drove its retail business. Describing their Amazon Locker offering, the company outlined: Amazon Hub Locker provides you with a self-service delivery location to pick up and return your Amazon.com packages. Lockers are currently available in a variety of locations throughout the U.S. Instead of delivering a package to your home or business address, you can select an Amazon Hub Locker location and pick up your package at a time that’s convenient for you. Once your package is delivered to the locker location, you’ll receive an e-mail notification with a unique pickup code that includes the address and opening times for your selected locker location. When you arrive to collect your package, enter your pickup code or scan the barcode using the barcode scanner and follow the instructions on the screen. All packages delivered to Amazon Hub Lockers must be picked up within three days. If you’re not able to collect your package within this timeframe, the package will be returned to us for a refund.6 6 2 https://www.amazon.com/gp/help/customer/display.html?nodeId=201530900. Retrieved 25 May 2019. 44 A07-20-0007 Authorized for use only in the course MRKT 459 Retail Management_F21 at McGill University taught by Marie-Josee Lamothe from Sep 01, 2021 to Dec 31, 2021. Use outside these parameters is a copyright violation. and loyalty. Amazon Prime provided unlimited two-day purchase deliveries and a range of ancillary services (e.g., online movie viewing), first in the United States and then in a variety of other countries for an annual fee. Experiments with aerial drones and other proprietary delivery services sought to reduce the company’s input costs and enhance customer value. Amazon Go, founded in 2018, reimagined the convenience-store customer-buying experience in altogether new ways by introducing physical stores with self-serve virtual check out (see Exhibit 3). Employing Just Walk Out Shopping Technology, Amazon Go introduced customers to the ability to completely bypass checkout lines. A team of Amazon executives tested the Go store concept in a 15,000-square-foot mock supermarket in a converted rented warehouse in Seattle. They then introduced the idea to Amazon founder Jeff Bezos in 2015. The first real Go store, open only to employees as of December 2016, provided opportunities to test and debug the Go store model. Amazon did not open the store until January 2018. The announcement of the first store opening led to a 2.5% jump in Amazon’s stock price. This change increased Jeff Bezos’ net worth by $2.8 billion in a single day.7 Bezos commented, “With Amazon Go, we had a clear vision. Get rid of the worst thing about physical retail: checkout lines. No one likes to wait in line. Instead, we imagined a store where you could walk in, pick up what you wanted, and leave.”8 To achieve this goal would require significant fusion of Industry 4.0 capabilities, including computer vision, AI deep learning algorithms, and sensor fusion solutions to achieve the level of automation required for self-service checkout that would be secure for both customers and the company. Sensor fusion combined data from cameras and scales and bar codes to verify purchases. Amazon developers created the Amazon Go app for iOS and Android mobile devices. The app served as the primary payment method. It was easy for app users to add family members to their account so they could make purchases. One industry analyst for RBC Wealth Management described Amazon Go as “Almost like the experience of shoplifting, except it’s legal, and you don’t need to hide the stuff in your jacket… Its in-store technology enables shoppers to have a very efficient and pleasant shopping experience… The overall opportunity is huge.”9 By Spring 2019, the company had 18 Go store locations in Seattle, Chicago, San Francisco, and New York City. Amazon 4-star Amazon opened its first 4-star store (see Exhibit 4) in September 2018. The concept driving 4-star stores was to promote items sold online at Amazon.com. Items had customer ratings of 4.0 or above, or they were top sellers or new and trending items. Item categories included Amazon devices, consumer electronics, kitchen, home, toys, books, and games.10 The 4-star stores provided customers with the opportunity to have a physical experience that closely mirrored online shopping. They experienced the benefit of social media-like customer ratings while being able to see and touch the products. Additionally, Amazon Echo was prominently displayed in the stores. Customers who purchased Echo were likely to order items online using Alexa. As 4-star stores proved to be popular with its customers, Amazon decided in 2019 to close its Pop-Up stores. These stores were actually standalone kiosks that the company used to sell Amazon devices such as Fire tablets, Echo speakers, and Kindle readers. An Amazon spokesperson stated, “After much review, we came to the decision to discontinue our Pop-Up kiosk program and are instead expanding Amazon Books and Amazon 4-star, where we provide a more comprehensive customer experience and broader selection.”11 Whole Foods Despite these inroads into fusion of physical and digital retailing, it was clear to Amazon leadership that they had more retail market share to gain. In his 2019 letter to shareholders, Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos described this gap: https://www.investopedia.com/news/jeff-bezos-just-got-28-billion-richer-thanks-amazon-go/ Retrieved on December 10, 2019. 8 https://www.cnbc.com/2019/04/12/amazons-jeff-bezos-most-us-sales-still-in-brick-and-mortar-stores.html Retrieved December 2, 2019 9 https://www.forbes.com/sites/andriacheng/2019/01/13/why-amazon-go-may-soon-change-the-way-we-want-toshop/#4dbc86a76709. Retrieved May 26, 2019. 10 https://blog.aboutamazon.com/shopping/amazon-4-star. Retrieved December 9, 2019. 11 https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/06/technology/amazon-pop-up-stores-closing.html. Retrieved December 4, 2019. 7 A07-20-0007 45 3 Authorized for use only in the course MRKT 459 Retail Management_F21 at McGill University taught by Marie-Josee Lamothe from Sep 01, 2021 to Dec 31, 2021. Use outside these parameters is a copyright violation. Amazon Go Whole Foods came on the scene during a time when the natural food industry was more novelty than mainstream. Founded in Austin, Texas, the company was among the first to apply the supermarket format to natural foods when it launched its first Whole Foods Market location in 1980. By 1984, the company had expanded beyond the Austin market, opening stores in Houston and Dallas. Next came regional expansion in 1988, with an acquisition in the New Orleans market, followed by a series of acquisitions of boutique natural foods retailers that would broaden the company’s footprint from California to Massachusetts and many locations in between. By the early 2000s, the company had become a household name for those who valued natural foods, and was financially positioned to take on dense urban markets like Manhattan, in New York. International expansion would soon follow with the company’s first stores in Canada opening in 2004—again fueled by an acquisition strategy.13 As Whole Foods continued to develop natural foods market share in the United States and beyond, Amazon’s appetite for quickly gaining a deep, brand-compatible physical store presence also grew. The company had been chasing the online grocery space since 2007. Returns for these efforts were largely unrequited. The grocery business itself is challenging—disproportionately rewarding the most operationally savvy and capitalrich parties and leaving others in its wake due to the segment’s tremendous volumes but razor-thin margins. The advent of new modalities with unclear profitability models and other obstacles compounded the challenge, and Amazon was no exception. Many were surprised by Amazon’s acquisition of Whole Foods in 2017, not because Whole Foods wasn’t a good company and not because the magnitude of the grocery business wasn’t an attractive target, but because this seemed to diverge from Amazon’s undeviating commitment to digital customer interfacing, at least prior to the acquisition. To describe the reasons for the purchase, Jeff Bezos sent an internal memo throughout the Amazon ranks: Today is a significant milestone in the evolution of the Amazon brand. Our offer to purchase Whole Foods will finally consolidate the largest online and offline retailers where consumers end up spending way more than they intended. Our corporate cultures are perfectly aligned. The New York Times revealed that every Amazon employee has cried at their desk, and I personally made a Whole Foods employee cry when they couldn’t correctly identify their process for ensuring single-source coffee beans throughout the roasting process. It was an uncomfortable 38 minutes for both of us, but I think an experience so many of you can relate to. Improved Echo functionality. Whole Foods has maintained a laser-like focus on organic foods and sustainable facilities, and I’m excited to bring that same vision to Echo. Starting next week, when customers ask their Echo to order non-organic food products, they’ll receive a 12-minute lecture on the benefits of organic and local-sourced products, while our top-notch product-matching software will send them the closest available organic item. Users on our website will find the “Customers Also Bought…” section, replacing unhealthy items with notes such as, “Cookies That Went Straight to Their Thighs” and “Beef Produced by Clear-Cutting Rainforest.” Needless to say, those products will not be available for purchase. I am beyond excited by the possibilities of this merger moving forward, and I hope the team feels the same. The combination of our two companies will account for over 85% of all hipster purchases in the United States. I’m looking forward to capturing the remaining 15%.14 https://ir.aboutamazon.com/2019-annual-meeting-shareholders. Retrieved May 17, 2019. https://www.wholefoodsmarket.com/company-info/whole-foods-market-history. Retrieved February 22, 2019. 14 https://www.mcsweeneys.net/articles/jeff-bezos-email-to-employees-on-amazons-purchase-of-whole-foods. Retrieved January 15, 2019. 12 13 4 46 A07-20-0007 Authorized for use only in the course MRKT 459 Retail Management_F21 at McGill University taught by Marie-Josee Lamothe from Sep 01, 2021 to Dec 31, 2021. Use outside these parameters is a copyright violation. Amazon today remains a small player in global retail. We represent a low single-digit percentage of the retail market, and there are much larger retailers in every country where we operate. And that’s largely because nearly 90% of retail remains offline, in brick-and-mortar stores.12 By spring of 2019, Amazon had 479 Whole Foods Markets stores (see Exhibit 4). This acquisition, as opposed to methodical build and testing from the ground up, represented a step-function increase in market share, yet it also required significant effort to integrate an existing business with so many stores into the Amazon ecosystem. Next Steps Amazon’s executives knew that growth would depend on increasing share of many large markets. Whole Foods was a compelling experiment, given the then $700 billion grocery industry. Leveraging Amazon’s digital capabilities while enhancing physical customer experiences would make the grocery industry a feasible target and expand the business models that Amazon could consider. But seeing the opportunity was different from delivering results. Amazon would need to not only acquire or build physical retail assets, but also develop the related supply chain, capabilities, and mindset shift associated with no longer being an exclusively digital company. Company executives would also have to contemplate the seemingly fine line between enhancing the customer experience and testing the limits of customers’ desire for privacy. For example, in 2017, the company fielded a patent for a technology that enabled Amazon to identify a customer’s internet traffic when they accessed one of their store’s WiFi networks and sense when the user was trying to access competitor websites. This would allow Amazon several options. They could shut down or slow access to the site—precluding customers from comparison shopping. They could redirect customers to a site of the company’s choosing. Perhaps a message could be sent to a store attendant prompting her to assist the customer. Amazon could even use this technology to send instantaneous offers or discounts to the customer via text or other method. Anchored in the digital with increasing physical sales modality ambitions, Amazon needed to continue to build, test, and deliver a series of strategic bridges to link the digital and physical domains. But would the fusion of digital and physical retail worlds make customers feel uncomfortable with the degree of control Amazon would have over their buying intentions and choices? How could Amazon reasonably predict success for each interaction expansion? https://venturebeat.com/2017/10/04/amazons-acquisition-of-whole-foods-will-bring-ai-technology-to-grocery-stores/. Retrieved November 1, 2019. 15 A07-20-0007 47 5 Authorized for use only in the course MRKT 459 Retail Management_F21 at McGill University taught by Marie-Josee Lamothe from Sep 01, 2021 to Dec 31, 2021. Use outside these parameters is a copyright violation. Beyond the “fit” benefits outlined in the Bezos internal memo, there were potentially even more strategic and disruptive benefits.15 The Whole Foods acquisition created the potential for further expansion of AI (artificial intelligence) and the IoT (internet of things) into retail grocery shopping. AI would provide valuable customer data enabling heightened customer insights that could guide Amazon’s use of bots and other automated mechanisms to serve customers more effectively. Additionally, the company’s executives believed AI technology would open new services and revenue streams, including providing a more detailed insight into the history of the food we buy, such as food security dynamic like where the food came from, how long it has been in transit, and storage temperatures. The same types of AI that had already been successful in online retailing could dramatically change customer behavior tracking and personalization. By applying beacons, geofencing, visual recognition, and other IoT technology, Amazon could make highly personalized Whole Foods promotion recommendations while a customer was in the store or even nearby. IoT opportunities would be enhanced as well through close integration with Amazon’s IoT products—Alexa, Echo, and Dash—thus enhancing the Amazon ecosystem. Authorized for use only in the course MRKT 459 Retail Management_F21 at McGill University taught by Marie-Josee Lamothe from Sep 01, 2021 to Dec 31, 2021. Use outside these parameters is a copyright violation. Exhibit 1. Amazon Locker Homepage Description Source: https://www.theverge.com/2015/11/2/9661556/amazon-books-firstphysical-bookstore-opening-seattle. Retrieved December 6, 2019. Exhibit 2. Amazon Books Store Source: https://www.theverge.com/2015/11/2/9661556/amazon-booksfirst-physical-bookstore-opening-seattle. Retrieved December 6, 2019. Exhibit 3. Amazon Go Homepage Description Source: https://www.amazon.com/b?ie=UTF8&node=16008589011. Retrieved December 3, 2019. 6 48 A07-20-0007 Authorized for use only in the course MRKT 459 Retail Management_F21 at McGill University taught by Marie-Josee Lamothe from Sep 01, 2021 to Dec 31, 2021. Use outside these parameters is a copyright violation. Exhibit 4. Amazon 4-star Store Source: https://www.amazon.com/amazon-4-star/b/?node=17988552011. Retrieved December 6, 2019. Exhibit 5. Whole Foods Homepage Featuring Amazon Prime Service Source: https://www.wholefoodsmarket.com/amazon/prime. Retrieved December 8, 2019. A07-20-0007 49 7 AMAZON GO: VENTURING INTO TRADITIONAL RETAIL1 Wiboon Kittilaksanawong and Aurélia Karp wrote this case solely to provide material for class discussion. The authors do not intend to illustrate either effective or ineffective handling of a managerial situation. The authors may have disguised certain names and other identifying information to protect confidentiality. This publication may not be transmitted, photocopied, digitized, or otherwise reproduced in any form or by any means without the permission of the copyright holder. Reproduction of this material is not covered under authorization by any reproduction rights organization. To order copies or request permission to reproduce materials, contact Ivey Publishing, Ivey Business School, Western University, London, Ontario, Canada, N6G 0N1; (t) 519.661.3208; (e) cases@ivey.ca; www.iveycases.com. Copyright © 2017, Richard Ivey School of Business Foundation Version: 2017-06-28 Amazon.com, Inc. (Amazon), one of the largest global online retailers, decided to enter the offline retail industry in December 2016 by launching its first Amazon Go store in Seattle, offering a technologically innovative way of shopping that allowed customers to make purchases without a cashier.2 The launch was the first time that Amazon really entered the traditional retail industry. Earlier, in May 2016, the company had entered food, diaper, and housekeeping product manufacturing with its Amazon Elements brand.3 Nevertheless, these products were only available online for American Prime Members. Founded in 1994 as an online bookstore, the company had become an e-commerce giant, leading digital sales of books and electronic products. It revolutionized the way consumers purchased products, while also becoming a trusted source of product information for potential buyers. However, the company was not profitable until 2001, while it was still experiencing some financial difficulties.4 As of the third quarter of 2016, it was the fourth most valuable public company in the United States.5 In 2015, it surpassed Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (Walmart) as the most valuable online retail company in the United States. Could Amazon reproduce its online success in the traditional offline retail segment? Could its current competitive advantages be replicated in offline retailing? Did this diversification make sense, considering Amazon’s existing key resources and capabilities, the presence of established traditional retailers like Walmart, and the market trend that was increasingly moving toward online stores? HISTORY The Beginnings: 1994–1997 On July 5, 1994, Jeff Bezos, a 30-year-old engineer graduating from Princeton University, left his job as vice-president at D.E. Shaw & Co., a global investment firm based in New York, to create an online bookstore based in Seattle. He saw the future of selling products online and thus first sold books, videos, computer hardware and software, and compact discs. He chose to sell books because of the high worldwide demand, low price per piece, and high number of titles. His aim was to provide more varieties of books online than were available in a physical store. Amazon’s main competitors were Barnes & Noble Booksellers Inc., the largest retail bookseller, and other local booksellers in the United States. The company 50 Authorized for use only in the course MRKT 459 Retail Management_F21 at McGill University taught by Marie-Josee Lamothe from Sep 01, 2021 to Dec 31, 2021. Use outside these parameters is a copyright violation. 9B17M092 9B17M092 was named Amazon.com in the year after it was created. Through a partnership with Ingram Book Group LLC, Amazon could access books at wholesale prices and sell them online at cheaper prices than physical bookstores. Within its first two months, Amazon’s online sales covered more than 45 countries with sales revenue of US$20,0006 per week. In June 1997, it went public and entered the Nasdaq stock exchange at an initial price of $18 per share, raising $54 million. Global Expansion and Laborious Financial Results: 1998–2004 In 1998, Amazon began to expand internationally, first by entering the United Kingdom and Germany, and then moving to Europe and Asia, including France, Japan, and China. The company included different languages on its websites to serve these international markets. Bezos was not expecting to make any profits during the first four or five years of the business. Shareholders were not satisfied with the company because it was not profitable and not growing fast enough. However, this business model, with slow but efficient growth, saved Amazon from suffering too much from the 2001 dot-com bubble, and the company realized its first profits in 2001. Nevertheless, its profit was only $5 million from revenues of over $1 billion. Since 2001, the company had significantly diversified its products, from books to computers, electronics, clothes, and beauty products. Diversification, Early Steps in the Service Industry, and Own-Brand Products: 2005–2010 Amazon continued to extend its services through AmazonFresh, a grocery service, and Amazon Music, an online music store. The company increased its product offerings through the Fulfilment by Amazon program, where products were stored in Amazon’s fulfilment centres and then quickly picked, packed, and shipped to customers. It also created Amazon Prime to provide a two-day shipping service in the United States for only $79 a year. It launched Amazon Web Services Inc., which offered inexpensive, reliable, and scalable cloud computing services, including Amazon Mechanical Turk, a crowdsourcing Internet marketplace that enabled individuals and businesses to coordinate the use of human intelligence. This period also marked the beginning of Amazon’s own-brand products, including the 2007 launch of the Amazon Kindle, one of the very first e-books readers, three years before the launch of Apple Inc’s iBooks. Innovating and Diversifying at a Faster Pace: 2011–2017 The company kept innovating to improve its products and services. It launched Amazon Locker, a parcel delivery service that allowed buyers to pick up purchases at secure, self-service kiosks, and Amazon Prime Air, a cargo airline and drone-based delivery system. In February 2017, the company announced that it would invest $1.5 billion to build an air cargo hub to support the increasing size of its fleet.7 Amazon also entered new segments with its Kindle Fire and Fire HD, which competed with Apple’s iPad. Amazon acquired several companies, including GoodReads, an online social networking site for sharing books and reviews, and LoveFilm, a DVD-by-mail and streaming video-on-demand provider that competed with Netflix in Europe. It acquired Kiva Systems to develop robots that efficiently moved products in warehouses, thereby shortening delivery times. The company launched Amazon Video Direct to compete with YouTube,8 and it also developed and operated Amazon Video, an Internet video-on-demand service where customers could buy, rent, and instantly watch digital movies and TV shows. Amazon opened its first physical bookstore, Amazon Books, in Seattle, selling 51 Authorized for use only in the course MRKT 459 Retail Management_F21 at McGill University taught by Marie-Josee Lamothe from Sep 01, 2021 to Dec 31, 2021. Use outside these parameters is a copyright violation. Page 2 9B17M092 products at the same prices as those available in the online stores. These strategic moves allowed Amazon to become a global online retail giant. By 2015, its market capitalization surpassed that of Walmart. AMAZON’S DEVELOPMENT Headquartered in Seattle, Amazon was one of the big four global digital companies: Google, Apple Inc., Facebook Inc., and Amazon. It had worldwide operations, with websites serving markets in 14 countries in North America, Europe, and Asia, and shipping services in 75 countries. 9 Its business was expanding rapidly. The number of full-time and part-time Amazon employees increased 47 per cent in one year to reach 268,900 in 2016.10 This was 23 times more employees than its online competitor EBay and twice as many as Apple, but it was less than 12 per cent of the employees of its offline competitor Walmart. Amazon announced a plan to hire 100,000 full-time employees in the United States from January 2017 to mid-2018, potentially becoming one of the largest technology employers in the country.11 Amazon offered a wide range of products on its website, including books, apparel, and even food. As of February 2017, Amazon.com had 48 categories of products—both new and used—that were created and sold both by Amazon itself and by other companies. Most products were in the digital and multimedia sectors. The company had diversified a lot over the years but mainly within online businesses. The company’s revenues from online retail sales largely surpassed those of its competitors: in 2015, its online retail sales were 5.5 times greater than those of Walmart, making it the leader in the online retail market12 (see Exhibit 1). Amazon made $71.84 billion in online retail sales between November 2014 and November 2015. This was more than the combined online sales of Apple, Walmart, Sears, Roebuck & company, The Gap Inc., Costco Wholesale Coporation, Target Corporation, The Kohl’s Corporation, Best Buy Co., and The Home Depot Inc.13 In the second quarter of 2016, Amazon hit a record profit for the third straight quarter—$857 million ($1.78 per share) on revenue of $30.4 billion.14 This record far surpassed analysts’ estimates of profits per share of $1.11 and revenues of $29.5 billion. In 2016, its online retail sales accounted for half of all online retail sales in the United States.15 According to Amazon’s chief financial officer, Brian Olsavsky, these positive financial figures were a result of “working very hard on efficiency” and “benefits of operating at scale.”16 For years, as Amazon’s online retail sales and profits increased continually, the company kept on investing in research and development (R&D) to improve its offers and to develop new market sectors. In 2016, Amazon decided to enter food and consumable goods manufacturing through Amazon Elements, available only online for American Prime Members, and offline retailing through Amazon Go in Seattle, the first brick-and-mortar convenience food store that employed mobile e-commerce, machine learning, and computer vision to allow customers to make purchases without a cashier.17 However, Amazon’s performance in the third quarter of 2016, especially in terms of profits, was lower than expected, and this caused its stock price to decrease by 7 per cent. While its revenues were as expected, at $32.7 billion, its profits were $252 million, which was much lower than in the second quarter.18 Earnings per share were only $0.52—below the estimated $0.78. Still, as of the third quarter of 2016, Amazon was the fourth most valuable public company in the United States. This poorer performance resulted largely from increased investments in improving existing offers and developing new offers. Such investments were expected to increase as Amazon entered offline retail segments, which required at least buying physical stores. As Olsavsky said, “We are in a period of advancing up our investments in the second half of 2016, even more so than in prior years.”19 In May 2016, 52 Authorized for use only in the course MRKT 459 Retail Management_F21 at McGill University taught by Marie-Josee Lamothe from Sep 01, 2021 to Dec 31, 2021. Use outside these parameters is a copyright violation. Page 3 9B17M092 to raise more capital, Bezos sold over one million of his shares—the largest amount he had ever made—for $671 million. In August 2016, he sold another record one million shares for $756.7 million, reducing his shares in Amazon to 16.9 per cent (see Exhibit 2). AMAZON’S COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGES Amazon’s success was not only due to its first-mover advantage but also came from a combination of competitive advantages related to marketing, supply chain, innovation, and customer-centricity. Brand Awareness and Innovative Marketing Amazon’s marketing strategy relied on its strong brand awareness. As Bezos said, “Brand names are more important online than they are in the physical world.”20 In another interview, he noted the importance of communicating the story of Amazon’s brand: “You can have the best technology, you can have the best business model, but if the storytelling isn’t amazing, it won’t matter . . . Nobody will watch.”21 The company implemented innovative marketing to receive free press coverage and to increase good customer perception of its products and services. Its community banana stands gave away about 4,500 free bananas daily to Seattle inhabitants to create more links with customers and improve its brand image. Since bananas were also the most popular item sold by Amazon’s rival, Walmart, some analysts thought this campaign could be seen as a way of attacking Walmart by showing that Amazon also sold good-quality fresh items.22 Amazon chose to advertise its first unexpected offline retail venture, Amazon Go, through video teasing, which successfully created a buzz among the general public. Amazon did not really need to spend a lot of money to advertise this brand-new offline offer, as media outlets were already talking about this innovative retail marketing approach. Amazon’s competitors also started to react to the resulting widespread public awareness by creating their own videos, which generated even more visibility for Amazon Go. In 2015, Amazon spent $2.8 billion on digital marketing, an increase of 40 per cent from the year before.23 The company also established partnerships with digital celebrities to promote its products.24 However, these marketing activities were not the only reason for Amazon’s success, and Amazon focused less on offline advertising than digital brands like Apple and Samsung. As Bezos said, “In the old world, you devoted 30 per cent of your time to building a great service and 70 per cent of your time to shouting about it. In the new world, that inverts.”25 Efficient Supply Chain Management to Create a Convenient Shopping Experience As an online retailer, Amazon revolutionized the way customers shopped for products through its efficient supply chain management, which made a wider range of products available and delivered those products faster than its competitors. The company’s global presence and available worldwide shipments allowed customers to easily buy almost anything from any country from Amazon. Unlike Walmart, Amazon did not need a physical shop; it just needed a warehouse to store products. It also had products delivered directly from the producer to the customer. Its fast delivery came from the strategic location of its warehouses, the high levels of available product inventory, its fast order management, and its partnerships with delivery companies. For example, in Japan, Amazon partnered with Yamato Holdings Co., Ltd., allowing buyers to receive products within a day of their orders.26 This very efficient delivery also came from its investments in robotics. 53 Authorized for use only in the course MRKT 459 Retail Management_F21 at McGill University taught by Marie-Josee Lamothe from Sep 01, 2021 to Dec 31, 2021. Use outside these parameters is a copyright violation. Page 4 9B17M092 From the beginning of its business, Amazon sold many products at highly competitive prices, usually cheaper than those of offline competitors. Bezos even said, “There are two kinds of companies, those that work to try to charge more and those that work to charge less. We will be the second.”27 This ability to reduce prices came from the high economies of scale Amazon could generate on some products because of their high turnover. Unlike offline retailers, Amazon did not pay expensive rent for physical shops but efficiently managed warehouses at strategic locations to maximize its inventory turnover. Its strategy to sell more at a low price meant the company’s margins were usually lower than those of competitors, and this was one reason why it was not profitable for many years. Customer-Centricity and Innovation Bezos’s strategy had always been to focus on customer needs. He said, “We’ve had three big ideas at Amazon that we’ve stuck with for 18 years, and they’re the reason we’re successful: Put the customer first. Invent. And be patient.”28 Since the beginning of online business, Amazon kept innovating to create the best possible user experience. The company emphasized the ease of use of its websites. It also reduced product delivery time, proposing even same-day deliveries in some cities. This customer-centric approach allowed the company to be more innovative. As Bezos said, “If you’re competitor-focused, you have to wait until there is a competitor doing something. Being customer-focused allows you to be more pioneering.”29 The company increased the number of products it offered over the years to satisfy customer needs, particularly through partnerships with prominent players such as retailer Toys “R” Us Inc. AMAZON’S PRIVATE LABELS AND OFFLINE RETAIL OFFERS Amazon had already launched a bookstore in a university in Seattle, which offered over 6,000 book titles, and it planned to open a second one in San Diego. Although Amazon did not have much experience in the traditional manufacturing and retail business, it decided in 2016 to enter grocery product manufacturing and brick-and-mortar food retailing. This decision went against the general trend of business models followed by many competitors, which were increasingly moving from offline physical stores to online stores. However, Bezos did not see this decision as a risk. Instead, he saw it as a normal evolution of business, and said, “What’s dangerous is not to evolve.”30 New Brands After developing many electronic devices under its own brand, Amazon decided to enter the higher-margin grocery and household goods sectors. In May 2016, the company announced the launch of three brands available for purchase online on its websites: Happy Belly (which offered grocery products including milk, coffee, cereals, and pasta), Wickedly Prime (which offered ready-to-eat prepared foods), and Mama Bear (which offered baby products including baby food, cleaning wipes, and diapers).31 Amazon thus not only sold grocery and household products online but also produced them through private labels, allowing the company to have potentially higher margins.32 On its websites, the company explained that this move was driven by its customer-centric capabilities. 33 According to Amazon, the product offerings would be improved based on the clients’ feedback. It wanted to create and promote brands that would be seen by customers as more trustworthy than others. While Amazon Elements products had been available only in the United States and only to Amazon Prime members, a small segment of Amazon’s entire customer base, Amazon contracted with multiple manufacturers to produce this new range of products. These manufacturers included TreeHouse Foods Inc., 54 Authorized for use only in the course MRKT 459 Retail Management_F21 at McGill University taught by Marie-Josee Lamothe from Sep 01, 2021 to Dec 31, 2021. Use outside these parameters is a copyright violation. Page 5 9B17M092 which was also manufacturing similar goods for other retailers. This development could be seen as an attempt by Amazon to catch up and compete even more with other retailers such as Walmart and Target, which had had their own product brands for years. Because Amazon’s brand awareness was so high, it could develop these new offers easily without having to spend millions of dollars on advertising and other marketing activities. Amazon could adapt its product offers to meet consumer demands by utilizing its enormous customer databases. However, as Amazon had not been a traditional retailer before, this strategic move might be seen as risky. Indeed, this was not the first time that Amazon had tried to produce baby products. In 2014, the company had launched its own diapers on its websites, but removed them from Amazon.com only few weeks after the launch due to manufacturing defects and negative customer feedback.34 Nevertheless, Bezos was not the kind to give up easily after one failure. He said, “If you’re not stubborn, you’ll give up on experiments too soon. And if you’re not flexible, you’ll pound your head against the wall and you won’t see a different solution to a problem you’re trying to solve.”35 These new Amazon-branded products could also create tensions with suppliers who were currently presenting their products on Amazon.com, potentially putting Amazon in an even tougher position to negotiate with them.36 Should Amazon’s own brands be showcased on its websites while the company aimed to be a leader in the sale of its own-brand products? Should these own-brand products be marketed the same way as products available from other suppliers? Was the launch of its own-brand products considered unfair competition? Amazon Go Amazon’s business model was designed under the assumption that retail businesses were all growing and moving toward the online environment. However, with Amazon Go, the company clearly revised its business model to combine online and offline retailing. The company opened its first brick-and-mortar food store on December 5, 2016, near its headquarters in Seattle. It announced this new initiative only by posting a video about the Amazon Go concept that day.37 Immediately after the post, media outlets around the world wrote about it. The store was accessible only to the company’s employees for beta testing, while a public opening was planned for early 2017. It seemed that Amazon might be planning to extend Amazon Go to the United Kingdom. According to the Guardian, the company had registered a British trademark for the store concept in December 2016, on the same day it opened the Seattle store. 38 The company refused to comment to the newspaper about this potential U.K. expansion. However, such an expansion would not be surprising given that the company had often before used the United Kingdom as its first non-U.S. market to test new offers. These strategic moves implied that Amazon might be thinking of developing the Amazon Go concept globally. The Amazon Go store, which sold staple foods, was 1,800 square feet (over 160 square metres) in area. Its uniqueness was its fast and convenient electronic payment system. Customers just entered the store, picked up the products they wanted, and left the store without having to queue to process payments. 39 When customers took products from the store, sensors would concurrently transmit information about the purchases to its online processing system, which would debit the price of those products directly from the customers’ Amazon Prime accounts before the customers left the store.40 Amazon Go and Amazon.com had the same aim: to revolutionize the way people consumed in their everyday life and to offer the best possible customer experience. According to the company, this shopping technology was really not a new concept, as Amazon’s teams had already been working on it for four years.41 55 Authorized for use only in the course MRKT 459 Retail Management_F21 at McGill University taught by Marie-Josee Lamothe from Sep 01, 2021 to Dec 31, 2021. Use outside these parameters is a copyright violation. Page 6 9B17M092 The automated grocery store raised significant concerns among Amazon’s employees due to the potential job cuts in Amazon stores. It was estimated that, through this technology, Amazon’s grocery stores might eliminate thousands of jobs in the long term.42 COMPETITION IN THE OFFLINE RETAIL MARKET Amazon Go and Amazon’s private labels, including Amazon Elements, targeted markets that were quite similar to those of its major grocery retail competitors, Walmart and Target. Over the years, Amazon had surpassed these large retailers in terms of online sales, but would the company be able to reproduce this online success in the offline markets? Though it might generate greater profit margins, the offline retail market was extremely competitive, requiring much larger investments. Importantly, Amazon had no solid experience in managing physical chain stores. Many competitors, particularly established grocery retailers, viewed such announcements with humour. Amazon was clearly a latecomer without sufficient knowledge of brick-and-mortar retail markets, while efficient delivery systems allowed more customers to shop for products online. Monoprix S.A., a major French retail chain located in key areas in city centres, made a parody of Amazon Go’s video, saying that Amazon should have better served its customers’ needs.43 This reaction was similar to the response to Amazon’s entrance into the online food market, in which it became a big player. By 2016, the Amazon Prime service had over 63 million users; these users could be potential users of Amazon Go and Amazon Elements as well.44 Amazon’s biggest competitor in the online retail market was Walmart, an American retailer operating in both offline and online markets through its own brick-and-mortar stores and websites. It was the largest offline retailer in the United States and the second online retailer after Amazon. Amazon and Walmart had been competing in the online market for years. Walmart had even sued Amazon in 1998 for hiring former Walmart executives and thus stealing its trade secrets.45 Doug McMillon, the president and chief executive officer of Walmart, commented that Walmart’s high number of stores gave it a competitive edge over purely online stores such as Amazon and that, by being in both offline and online markets, the company could do “quick last minute delivery that is free, cheaper, pushes cutoff shopping during holidays, and . . . brings people into stores.”46 The opening of Amazon Go stores and the development of Amazon’s own-brand grocery products could thus become a serious threat to Walmart. CONCLUSION The launch of Amazon Go and Amazon Elements, as well as other private labels, clearly demonstrated Amazon’s intention to move from being online only to becoming a mixed offline and online retail and manufacturing company. Amazon Go and Amazon Elements had several similarities: they were offline, were reserved only for Amazon Prime members, were in the grocery segment, and had the same competitors. These initiatives, which were seen as good opportunities for Amazon to generate higher profits, meanwhile put the company into a riskier position due to its lack of experience in traditional retailing. In online retail sales, Amazon’s performance had surpassed its mixed online and offline retail competitors over the years, demonstrating its strengths in marketing, supply chain, and customer-centricity in online segments. Could Amazon replicate the competitive advantage that contributed to its online success in the offline retail markets? Could the company leverage its existing online assets and capabilities in the offline segments? Given this diversification, how could Amazon manage the efficiency of its operations and the quality of its products in the long term? Did the company have capabilities to do so? Would Amazon Go change the way people bought and consumed as Amazon.com had done so successfully before? Would the company be 56 Authorized for use only in the course MRKT 459 Retail Management_F21 at McGill University taught by Marie-Josee Lamothe from Sep 01, 2021 to Dec 31, 2021. Use outside these parameters is a copyright violation. Page 7 9B17M092 able to go against the trend of grocery shopping, which was increasingly moving toward online markets? Could the company develop these offline retail offers globally? Could competitors easily imitate this innovative shopping technology? Finally, given potential job cuts, would Amazon face resistance from store employees and unions? 57 Authorized for use only in the course MRKT 459 Retail Management_F21 at McGill University taught by Marie-Josee Lamothe from Sep 01, 2021 to Dec 31, 2021. Use outside these parameters is a copyright violation. Page 8 Page 9 9B17M092 Amazon.com 71,844 Walmart 13,188 Apple 10,740 Macy’s 4,710 Home Depot 4,267 Best Buy 3,672 Costco 3,498 Nordstrom 2,620 Gap Inc. 2,505 Target 2,491 Williams-Sonoma 2,459 Kohl’s 2,282 Sears Holdings 2,084 Source: Phil Wahba, “This Chart Shows Just How Dominant Amazon Is,” Fortune, November 6, 2015, accessed April 16, 2017, http://fortune.com/2015/11/06/amazon-retailers-ecommerce/. EXHIBIT 2: AMAZON’S YEAR END FINANCIAL RESULTS Revenues (million $) Gross Margin (%) Operating Income (million $) Operating Margin (%) Net Income (million $) Earnings Per Share ($) 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 14,835 19,166 24,509 34,204 48,077 61,093 74,452 88,988 107,006 135,987 22.6 22.3 22.6 22.3 22.4 24.8 27.2 29.5 33.0 35.1 655 842 1,129 1,406 862 676 745 178 2,233 4,186 4.4 4.4 4.6 4.1 1.8 1.1 1.0 0.2 2.1 3.1 476 645 902 1,152 631 −39 274 -241 596 2,371 1.12 1.49 2.04 2.53 1.37 −0.09 0.59 −0.52 1.25 4.90 Source: “Amazon.com Inc. AMZN,” Morningstar, accessed April 16, 2017, http://financials.morningstar.com/ratios/r.html?t=AMZN. 58 Authorized for use only in the course MRKT 459 Retail Management_F21 at McGill University taught by Marie-Josee Lamothe from Sep 01, 2021 to Dec 31, 2021. Use outside these parameters is a copyright violation. EXHIBIT 1: DIGITAL SALES WORLDWIDE, BY RETAILER (IN $MILLIONS) Page 10 9B17M092 1 This case has been written on the basis of published sources only. Consequently, the interpretation and perspectives presented in this case are not necessarily those of Amazon.com, Inc. or any of its employees. 2 Andrew Melville, “Amazon Go Is about Payments, Not Grocery,” Forbes, January 20, 2017, accessed April 16, 2017, https://www.forbes.com/sites/groupthink/2017/01/20/amazon-go-is-about-payments-not-grocery/#41fd22df67e4. 3 Greg Bensinger, “Amazon to Expand Private-Label Offerings—From Food to Diapers,” Wall Street Journal, May 15, 2016, accessed April 16, 2017, https://www.wsj.com/articles/amazon-to-expand-private-label-offeringsfrom-food-to-diapers-1463346316. 4 “Amazon Posts a Profit,” CNN Money, January 22, 2002, accessed April 16, 2017, http://money.cnn.com/2002/01/22/technology/amazon/. 5 Tomi Kilgore, “Amazon Passes Exxon to Become 4th Most Valuable Company in the U.S.,” MarketWatch, August 2, 2016, accessed April 16, 2017, www.marketwatch.com/story/amazon-passes-exxon-to-become-4th-most-valuable-company-in-theus-2016-08-01. 6 All currency amounts are in US$ unless otherwise specified. 7 Darrell Etherington, “Amazon Will Build Its Own 1.5 Billion Air Cargo Hub,” Techcrunch, Feb 1, 2017, accessed April 16, 2017, https://techcrunch.com/2017/02/01/amazon-will-build-its-own-1-5-billion-air-cargo-hub/. 8 Ron Amadeo, “‘Amazon Video Direct’ Takes Aim at the Professional Side of YouTube,” Ars Technica, November 5, 2016, accessed April 16, 2017, https://arstechnica.com/business/2016/05/amazon-video-direct-takes-aim-at-the-professional-sideof-youtube/. 9 “Amazon.com,” accessed April 16, 2017, https://www.amazon.com. 10 Nat Levy, “Amazon Reaches New High of 268,000 Employees—Skyrocketing 47% in Just One Year,” GeekWire, July 28, 2016, accessed April 16, 2017, www.geekwire.com/2016/amazon-employment-2nd-quarter/. 11 Don Reisinger, “Amazon Is Planning to Hire 100,000 Full-Time Employees,” Fortune, January 12, 2017, accessed April 16, 2017, http://fortune.com/2017/01/12/amazon-full-time-employees/. 12 Phil Wahba, “This Chart Shows Just How Dominant Amazon Is,” Fortune, November 6, 2015, accessed April 16, 2017, http://fortune.com/2015/11/06/amazon-retailers-ecommerce/. 13 “How Much Does Amazon Spend On Digital Marketing,” Spinutech, August 9, 2016, accessed April 16, 2017, https://www.spinutech.com/blog/digital-marketing/how-much-does-amazon-spend-on-digital-marketing/. 14 Jason Del Rey, “Amazon Just Posted a Record Profit for the Third Straight Quarter,” Recode, July 28, 2016, accessed April 16, 2017, https://www.recode.net/2016/7/28/12315690/amazon-earnings-q2-2016. 15 Jason Del Rey, “Amazon’s Complete Retail Domination in One Tiny Chart,” Recode, December 23, 2015, accessed April 16, 2017, https://www.recode.net/2015/12/23/11621690/amazons-complete-retail-domination-in-one-tiny-chart. 16 Eugene Kim, “Amazon CFO Had to Explain It’s Not a Bad Thing Amazon Had Its Highest Quarterly Profit Ever,” Business Insider, July 28, 2016, accessed April 16, 2017, www.businessinsider.com/amazon-cfo-defends-profit-on-conference-call2016-7. 17 David Jones, “Amazon’s Register-Free Grocery Shopping Could Disrupt Retail,” TechNewsWorld, December 6, 2016, accessed May 15, 2017, www.technewsworld.com/story/84141.html. 18 Eugene Kim, “Amazon Misses, Stock Falls,” Business Insider, October 27, 2016, accessed April 16, 2017, www.businessinsider.com/amazon-earnings-q3-2016-2016-10. 19 Ibid. 20 Bill Murphy, “‘Follow the Money’ and Other Lessons from Jeff Bezos,” Inc., August 6, 2013, accessed April 16, 2017, www.inc.com/bill-murphy-jr/follow-the-money-lessons-from-jeff-bezos.html. 21 Aly Weisman, “Here’s How Jeff Bezos Chooses Which Amazon Shows to Green-Light,” Business Insider, July 15, 2015, accessed April 16, 2017, www.businessinsider.com/what-jeff-bezos-wants-in-an-amazon-show-2015-7. 22 Jacob Demmitt, “Amazon Opens ‘Community Banana Stand’ at Seattle HQ to Give Away Free Fruits,” GeekWire, December 3, 2015, accessed January 6, 2017, www.geekwire.com/2015/amazon-opens-community-banana-stand-to-giveaway-hundreds-of-free-snacks-at-seattle-hq/. 23 “Amazon Upped Its Digital Marketing Spend 40% Last Year to $2.8 Billion,” PR Newswire, January 27, 2015, accessed April 16, 2017, www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/amazon-upped-its-digital-marketing-spend-40-last-year-to-28-billion300026351.html. 24 Celine Mingot, “Mister V et Cyprien Choisis pour Promouvoir le Programme Amazon Premium Jeunes [Mister V and Cyprien Selected to Promote the Amazon Premium Youth Program],” Influenth, December 5, 2016, accessed April 16, 2017, www.influenth.com/mister-v-cyprien-choisis-promouvoir-programme-amazon-premium-jeune/. 25 Jessica Stillman, “7 Jeff Bezos Quotes That Outline the Secret to Success,” Inc., May 7, 2014, accessed April 16, 2017, www.inc.com/jessica-stillman/7-jeff-bezos-quotes-that-will-make-you-rethink-success.html. 26 Chris Cooper and Kiyotaka Matsuda, “Amazon Surge in Japan Lifts Yamato’s Express Deliveries Freight,” Bloomberg, August 15, 2014, accessed April 16, 2017, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2014-08-14/amazon-surge-in-japanlifts-yamato-s-express-deliveries-freight. 27 George Anders, “Jeff Bezos’s Top 10 Leadership Lessons,” Forbes, April 4, 2012, accessed April 16, 2017, https://www.forbes.com/sites/georgeanders/2012/04/04/bezos-tips/#3dee7902fce4. 28 Paul Farhi, “Jeffrey Bezos, Washington Post’s Next Owner, Aims for a New ‘Golden Era’ at the Newspaper,” Washington Post, September 3, 2013, accessed April 16, 2017, https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/style/jeffrey-bezos-washingtonposts-next-owner-aims-for-a-new-golden-era-at-the-newspaper/2013/09/02/30c00b60-13f6-11e3-b1821b3bb2eb474c_story.html. 59 Authorized for use only in the course MRKT 459 Retail Management_F21 at McGill University taught by Marie-Josee Lamothe from Sep 01, 2021 to Dec 31, 2021. Use outside these parameters is a copyright violation. ENDNOTES Page 11 9B17M092 David LaGesse, “America’s Best Leaders: Jeff Bezos, Amazon.com CEO,” U.S. News, November 19, 2008, accessed April 16, 2017, https://www.usnews.com/news/best-leaders/articles/2008/11/19/americas-best-leaders-jeff-bezos-amazoncom-ceo. 30 Michael Shick, “Jeff Bezos—What’s Dangerous Is Not to Evolve,” Fast Company, March 3, 2010, accessed April 16, 2017, https://www.fastcompany.com/1569357/jeff-bezos-whats-dangerous-not-evolve. 31 Greg Bensinger, op. cit.; Flore Fauconnier, “Amazon va Lancer sa Propre Marque Alimentaire [Amazon Launches Its Own Food Brand],” Journal du Net, May 29, 2015, accessed April 16, 2017, www.journaldunet.com/ebusiness/commerce/amazonmdd-alimentaire-0515.shtml; “Amazon Vendra Sa Propre Nourriture [Amazon Will Sell Its Own Food],” Infopresse, May 16, 2016, www.infopresse.com/article/2016/5/16/amazon-vendra-sa-propre-nourriture. 32 “Amazon va Bientôt Vendre de la Nourriture et D’Autres Produits sous Sa Propre Marque [Amazon Will Soon Sell Food under Its Own Brand],” Kulture Geek, May 16, 2016, accessed April 16, 2017, http://kulturegeek.fr/news-84373/amazonvendre-nourriture-dautres-produits-propre-marque. 33 “Amazon Elements,” Amazon.com Inc., accessed April 16, 2017, https://www.amazon.com/Amazon-Elements-Premiumproducts-Transparent- origins-Exclusive-to-Prime/b?ie=UTF8&node=10166275011. 34 Omar Belkaab, “Amazon Lance Ses Propres Marques D’Alimentation, de Détergents et de Couches Culottes [Amazon Launches Own Brand of Food, Detergents, and Coats],” Numerama, May 16, 2016, accessed April 16, 2017, www.numerama.com/business/170495-amazon-lance-propres-marques-dalimentation-de-detergent-de-couchesculottes.html. 35 John Greathouse, “5 Time-Tested Success Tips from Amazon Founder Jeff Bezos,” Forbes, April 30, 2013, accessed April 16, 2017, https://www.forbes.com/sites/johngreathouse/2013/04/30/5-time-tested-success-tips-from-amazon-founderjeff-bezos/#384564c2370c. 36 Jason Del Rey, “Amazon Is Going to Sell Its Own Lines of Food, Detergent and Diapers, and It's Going to Be a Really Big Deal,” Recode, May 15, 2016, accessed April 16, 2017, https://www.recode.net/2016/5/15/11680080/amazon-happy-bellymama-bear-private-label. 37 “Introducing Amazon Go and the World’s Most Advanced Shopping Technology,” YouTube video, 1:49, posted by Amazon, December 5, 2016, accessed April 16, 2017, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NrmMk1Myrxc. 38 Sean Farrell, “Amazon Go Checkout-Free Stores Look Set to Come to UK,” Guardian, December 9, 2016, accessed April 16, 2017, https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/dec/09/amazon-go-stores-uk-trademark-us. 39 Andrew Melville, op. cit. 40 Sean Farrell, op. cit. 41 “Frequently Asked Questions,” Amazon.com, Inc., accessed April 16, 2017, https://www.amazon.com/b?node=16008589011. 42 Erik Sherman, “Amazon's Grocery Would Eliminate Thousands of Jobs,” Forbes, December 7, 2016, accessed April 16, 2017, https://www.forbes.com/sites/eriksherman/2016/12/07/amazons-grocery-would-eliminate-thousands-of-jobs/. 43 Nicolas Scheffer, “Monoprix Ironise à Propos D'Amazon Go [Monoprix Ridicules Amazon Go],” Les Echos, January 3, 2017, accessed April 16, 2017, https://business.lesechos.fr/directions-marketing/communication/communicationdigitale/0211641428346-monoprix-ironise-a-propos-d-amazon-go-304014.php; Angela Natividad, “This Grocery Chain Just Mocked Amazon Go as a Latecomer With Snarky Remake of its Ad,” AdWeek, January 3, 2017, accessed April 16, 2017, www.adweek.com/creativity/grocery-chain-just-mocked-amazon-go-latecomer-snarky-remake-its-ad-175322/. 44 Audrey Shi, “Amazon Prime Members Now Outnumber Non-Prime Customers,” Fortune, July 11, 2016, accessed April 16, 2017, http://fortune.com/2016/07/11/amazon-prime-customers/. 45 “Wal-Mart Sues Amazon,” CNN Money, October 16, 1998, accessed April 16, 2017, http://money.cnn.com/1998/10/16/companies/walmart/. 46 Phil Wahba, op. cit. 60 Authorized for use only in the course MRKT 459 Retail Management_F21 at McGill University taught by Marie-Josee Lamothe from Sep 01, 2021 to Dec 31, 2021. Use outside these parameters is a copyright violation. 29 AMAZON.COM: CONQUERING GROCERY’S LAST MILE 1 Ken Mark wrote this case under the supervision of Professor June Cotte solely to provide material for class discussion. The authors do not intend to illustrate either effective or ineffective handling of a managerial situation. The authors may have disguised certain names and other identifying information to protect confidentiality. This publication may not be transmitted, photocopied, digitized, or otherwise reproduced in any form or by any means without the permission of the copyright holder. Reproduction of this material is not covered under authorization by any reproduction rights organization. To order copies or request permission to reproduce materials, contact Ivey Publishing, Ivey Business School, Western University, London, Ontario, Canada, N6G 0N1; (t) 519.661.3208; (e) cases@ivey.ca; www.iveycases.com. Copyright © 2018, Ivey Business School Foundation Version: 2018-04-24 On February 8, 2018, Amazon.com Inc. (Amazon) announced that all of its Prime members in four U.S. cities—Austin, Cincinnati, Dallas, and Virginia Beach—could now get free, two-hour delivery of groceries from its subsidiary, Whole Foods Market Inc. (Whole Foods). Members who wanted even faster, one-hour delivery could pay an extra US$7.99 per order. 2 The free grocery delivery campaign was just the latest iteration of Amazon’s decade-long attempt to solve the most challenging problem for online grocers: how to design an attractive and profitable service for customers that included the last mile between the store and the customer’s home. From its start as an online bookstore, Amazon was now the world’s largest online retailer and was valued at over $600 billion. 3 It was a direct seller of general merchandise such as electronics and books, and was a distribution platform for third-party vendors, many of whom used Amazon’s Fulfillment by Amazon (FBA) service to fulfill their orders. It had a network of warehouses located close to densely populated urban centres. Finally, it was able to generate profits from its fast-growing Amazon Web Services (AWS) segment, using the excess cash to fund its retail rollout. For more than two decades, start-ups and established grocers had been trying to design a viable last-mile service for e-grocery sales. One of the most prominent start-ups of the 1990s, Webvan, raised $800 million in venture funds and another $375 million from an initial public offering (IPO). 4 However, despite spending $1 billion on warehouses and delivery trucks, Webvan went bankrupt after just three years of operation. Seizing on the opportunity, Amazon bought Webvan’s liquidated assets in 2001 and started to build AmazonFresh. 5 Amazon’s pilot testing of the grocery delivery service seemed to stumble in November 2017, when the company announced that it was shutting down AmazonFresh deliveries in five states—a decision a spokesperson emphasized was unrelated to Amazon’s purchase of the Whole Foods grocery chain. 6 A report indicated that Amazon was blaming the U.S. Postal Service for the shutdown, claiming that deliveries were late or missed. 7 In early 2018, Amazon was continuing to build out its delivery services, reducing its reliance on shippers such as FedEx and UPS. 8 It was also transforming Whole Foods into a more streamlined business, cutting the amount of excess inventory in its stores. 9 Through its 440 Whole Foods stores, Amazon now had access to the 40 million U.S. households that lived within five miles of a Whole Foods store 10 and to the 61 Authorized for use only in the course MRKT 459 Retail Management_F21 at McGill University taught by Marie-Josee Lamothe from Sep 01, 2021 to Dec 31, 2021. Use outside these parameters is a copyright violation. 9B18A025 9B18A025 80 per cent of the U.S. population that lived within 10 miles. 11 Amazon seemed to have a viable combination of stores that could double as warehouses, a desirable brand name in Whole Foods, last-mile logistics, and a commitment to make e-grocery work. 12 It was a large market—valued at $800 billion 13— but one that had low net margins: about 2.5 per cent, industry-wide. 14 As Amazon ramped up its egrocery efforts, whether the venture would be successful or not remained to be seen.Would Amazon successfully overcome the challenge of last-mile grocery delivery? If so, what were the implications for Amazon and other retailers? THE U.S. GROCERY INDUSTRY 15 The U.S. grocery industry, led by market leaders Wal-Mart, Kroger, and Albertsons, generated revenues of $800 billion in sales. About three-quarters of the product sold in grocery stores was food, with meat accounting for 14 per cent of sales; fresh produce, 10 per cent; dairy, 8 per cent; and frozen foods, 5 per cent. The remainder was a mixture of general merchandise, including health and beauty products. The average grocery store was 46,000 square feet (4,300 square metres) in size, had 72 employees, carried 50,000 different items, and generated annual sales of about $24.2 million. Most employees were involved in cashiering, restocking, food preparation, and bagging. More than 20 per cent of grocery employees participated in a union—a rate that was higher than the U.S. average of 12 per cent. Labour costs for grocery stores represented about 10 per cent of sales. 16 The typical grocery store served customers within a two-mile radius of the store. As such, location was key to the growth prospects of any new grocery store. Chain stores tended to consider many factors, including costs, demographics, and income levels, before investing in new stores. Customers could usually select from a few competitors from within driving distance of their homes. Within a store, items were generally grouped together into categories to facilitate shopping and to expose shoppers to higher-margin, impulse items. For example, popular items such as dairy or bread were placed near the back of the store to encourage shoppers to walk past higher-margin items such as packaged food or drinks. The business model of a grocery store rested on the premise that customers were willing to drive to the store on a regular basis and spend time browsing its aisles to pick a basket of items for their household needs. To ensure that customers could pay for their merchandise efficiently—even during popular time periods—the larger grocery stores typically had multiple checkout lines and employees bagging merchandise. Grocery was a high-volume, low-margin business, and prices were kept competitive. Managing the supply chain for fresh produce, meats, and general merchandise was key to keeping costs low. Large chains bought directly from manufacturers and growers and also from third-party wholesalers. Grocery chains earned additional margin from manufacturers by charging them slotting fees to list and carry products. Slotting fees could cost manufacturers between $2,313 and $21,768 per metropolitan area (city). A food company wanting to list a new item nationwide could end up paying slotting fees of $1–$2 million. 17 Bruce Weitz, the former chief executive officer of Kings Food Markets and Duane Read drugstores, explained how grocery stores saw their product mix: The “average” supermarket in the United States generates about $15–$20 million in revenues per year, although, depending on store size, focus, competition, and strategy/execution, the annual revenues can be as low as $5 million to over $50 million. Generally, the average supermarket’s “cutout” of total sales breaks down as 50 per cent in grocery (the stuff in the aisles and on displays), 15 per cent in dairy and frozen foods, 10 per cent+ in produce/floral, 10 per cent in 62 Authorized for use only in the course MRKT 459 Retail Management_F21 at McGill University taught by Marie-Josee Lamothe from Sep 01, 2021 to Dec 31, 2021. Use outside these parameters is a copyright violation. Page 2 9B18A025 meat, 4 per cent in deli and fresh bakery, and the balance in general merchandise/health and beauty care/Rx and wine/liquor and beer (where available by state laws). These are averages and are influenced significantly by the strategy being executed by the store or chain. For example, Whole Foods and Fairway [Market] have a more significant focus on fresh foods, where price impact chains on the other end of the spectrum (Aldi, Sav-a-lot) have most of the revenues in grocery packaged goods. Generally speaking, perishables departments have much higher gross margins but also have much higher labor costs, capital expenditures (for refrigerated cases), energy costs, and transportation costs. It is obviously much cheaper to warehouse, ship, and pack out packaged goods versus refrigerated and frozen merchandise. As a rule of thumb: the lower the gross margin percent on an individual item the higher the sales volume because of competitiveness.18 According to the Food Marketing Institute, the typical grocery store customer was the female head of a household. Households with children spent considerably more on groceries than childless households. Marketing and promotional vehicles included newspaper, print, and TV advertising; direct mail; and instore events. Free standing insert (FSI) coupons delivered via newspapers, retail price discounts, and endaisle displays were common promotions. The average shopping trip took 41 minutes, and there were, on average, 1.5 trips a week. 19 To a lesser extent, shoppers also enjoyed the ambience within a grocery store, as research by Hays, Keskinocak, and de Lopez indicated: A majority of consumers still prefer to buy groceries from a retail store. They may like to smell the vegetables and squeeze the fruit, or they may like to unwind from a long day by walking among the fresh breads of the bakery. Consumers also trust the grocery stores they have known for many years, and like to shop where they feel assured the quality is consistent and the price is right. 20 AMAZON AND THE FOCUS ON GROCERY Amazon was incorporated in 1994 by a former Wall Street hedge fund executive, Jeff Bezos, who chose the name “primarily because it began with the first letter of the alphabet and because of its association with the vast South American river. On the basis of research he had conducted, Bezos concluded that books would be the most logical product initially to sell online.” 21 Amazon survived the dot-com crash of the early 2000s and continued to build its online business, branching out from books to other products. It launched Amazon Web Services (AWS)—an on-demand cloud computing service—in March 2006 and designed and marketed devices such as the Kindle book reader and the Amazon Echo line of smart speakers. As it expanded its retail presence, Amazon’s AWS generated cash flow that was reinvested in the business. Amazon had $177.9 billion in sales in 2017, up 31 per cent year-over-year. It had operating profit of $4.1 billion and net income of $1.9 billion. AWS had total revenues of $17.46 billion and operating profit of $4.33 billion in 2017. Amazon’s average quarterly operating margins in 2017 were as follows: −5.65 per cent for the international segment, 2.4 per cent for the North American segment, and 24.65 per cent for AWS. 22 Exhibit 1 provides information on the percentage of product sold online, by category. Selected financial information on Amazon can be found in Exhibit 2. 63 Authorized for use only in the course MRKT 459 Retail Management_F21 at McGill University taught by Marie-Josee Lamothe from Sep 01, 2021 to Dec 31, 2021. Use outside these parameters is a copyright violation. Page 3 Page 4 9B18A025 Amazon’s $13.7 billion purchase of Whole Foods on June 16, 2017, signalled its serious intention to capture share in the U.S. grocery market. Whole Foods was the world’s leading retailer of natural and organic foods and the United States’ first national certified organic grocer. The company’s website listed the following core values: • • • • • • We sell the highest quality natural and organic foods. We satisfy and delight our customers. We promote team member growth and happiness. We practice win-win partnerships with our suppliers. We create profits and prosperity. We care about our community and the environment.23 Whole Foods sourced its food items from local, regional, and national producers. It had three seafood processing and distribution facilities, a specialty coffee and tea procurement and roasting operation, and 11 regional distribution centres that focused primarily on distributing perishables to stores across the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom. It also had three regional commissary kitchens and four bakery facilities, all of which distributed products to its stores. Other products were typically procured through specialty wholesalers and direct distributors. United Natural Foods Inc. (UNFI), Whole Foods’s single largest third-party supplier, accounted for approximately 32 per cent of its total purchases in 2016. Whole Foods had entered into a long-term relationship with UNFI as its primary supplier of dry grocery and frozen food products through 2025. 24 All Whole Foods stores employed approximately 50–600 team members, depending on store size and sales volume, and staff members were part of up to 10 self-managed teams per store. The store team leader worked closely with one or more associate store team leaders, as well as department team leaders, to operate the store as efficiently and profitably as possible. Whole Foods had average gross margins of 30 per cent. Whole Foods Market was one of Fortune magazine’s “100 Best Companies to Work for in America.” It was one of only 11 companies to have made the “100 Best” list every year since its inception, and its employees were not unionized. 25 When Amazon acquired Whole Foods, it was expected to cut prices by an average of 6 per cent across the board, which would make Whole Foods more attractive to customers. 26 There were cross-selling opportunities as well, as Amazon started to sell electronic goods at Whole Foods. In addition, 38 per cent of Whole Foods customers—about five million people out of 13 million—were not yet Amazon Prime members. 27 Amazon Prime memberships cost $99 per year per customer and gave members access to unlimited two-day shipping on 100 million items. Prime members enjoyed other benefits as well, including access to Prime Video, a video streaming service, free online books, and a music streaming service called Prime Music. 28 In about 5,000 cities and towns, Prime offered customers free same-day and one-day deliveries on over one million items. In selected neighbourhoods, it offered two-hour deliveries on tens of thousands of items. 29 Amazon Prime members spent an average of $2,486 a year on Amazon’s website, significantly more than the $544 spent by customers who were not Prime members. 30 64 Authorized for use only in the course MRKT 459 Retail Management_F21 at McGill University taught by Marie-Josee Lamothe from Sep 01, 2021 to Dec 31, 2021. Use outside these parameters is a copyright violation. WHOLE FOODS MARKET Page 5 9B18A025 By the time it purchased Whole Foods, Amazon had already been operating AmazonFresh, a grocery delivery service in selected cities in the United States and other major global cities such as London, Tokyo, Berlin, Hamburg, and Munich. Launched in Seattle in 2007, AmazonFresh allowed customers to combine grocery and other shopping into one seamless experience. They could order fresh groceries, prepared meals, and household goods along with other items sold by Amazon and could schedule deliveries for the same day or even place an order in the evening and have the grocery items delivered before breakfast the next day. 31 In March 2017, the company added two AmazonFresh pickup points in Seattle. AmazonFresh Pickup was a service that allowed customers to order products, including groceries, online and pick them up at designated drive-in locations. There was no option to walk in and buy groceries without first ordering them online (see Exhibit 3). The company had also launched Amazon Go, an 1,800-square-foot (approximately 167-square-metre) convenience store that stocked upscale food items such as sandwiches, frozen food, and Amazon-branded meal kits. 32 Amazon Go stores were designed to be cashier-less and relied on 6–10 employees per shift: one to stock shelves, one to answer questions, two to staff the drive-thru windows, and another two to oversee the robotic grocery-bagging and conveyor belts that delivered bags to customers. 33 The average grocery store had about 10 checkout stations per store. 34 DESIGNING AN E-GROCERY PRODUCT Stock analysts at Morgan Stanley examined Amazon’s grocery delivery service. They estimated that Amazon’s average order size for e-grocery orders was $40 and the cost of goods for the average order was $28. It would cost approximately $3.75 for Amazon to pick and pack the order; delivery to the customer, within a two-hour window, would cost $5.67. With delivery wage costs at $3.60 per order and other delivery costs (i.e., fuel and overhead) at $2.07, the gross profit per order was $2.58, or 6.45 per cent. In his 2016 letter to shareholders, Bezos emphasized that success would come from never losing the focus on the Amazon customer: “Jeff, what does Day 2 look like?” That’s a question I just got at our most recent all-hands meeting. I’ve been reminding people that it’s Day 1 for a couple of decades. . . . “Day 2 is stasis. Followed by irrelevance. Followed by excruciating, painful decline. Followed by death. And that is why it is always Day 1. . . .” There are many ways to center a business. You can be competitor focused, you can be product focused, you can be technology focused, you can be business model focused, and there are more. But in my view, obsessive customer focus is by far the most protective of Day 1 vitality. Why? There are many advantages to a customer-centric approach, but here’s the big one: customers are always beautifully, wonderfully dissatisfied, even when they report being happy and business is great. Even when they don’t yet know it, customers want something better, and your desire to delight customers will drive you to invent on their behalf. No customer ever asked Amazon to create the Prime membership program, but it sure turns out they wanted it, and I could give you many such examples. 65 Authorized for use only in the course MRKT 459 Retail Management_F21 at McGill University taught by Marie-Josee Lamothe from Sep 01, 2021 to Dec 31, 2021. Use outside these parameters is a copyright violation. AMAZON—OTHER GROCERY CONCEPTS 9B18A025 Staying in Day 1 requires you to experiment patiently, accept failures, plant seeds, protect saplings, and double down when you see customer delight. A customer-obsessed culture best creates the conditions where all of that can happen. 35 Two decades after the first online groceries came on the scene, e-grocery continued to face challenges. Adoption rates continued to be low for a number of reasons. First, many consumers chose to go to grocery stores without a grocery list in hand, browsing the aisles instead to select items to pick up. Another reason was that individual customers had widely different preferences for items such as meat or fresh produce, and they liked to select the specific items that matched those preferences. While there were strict specifications for general merchandise products such as electronics—there should be no difference between one Apple iPhone and another of the same model, for example—for grocery items, individual portions of the same stock keeping unit (SKU) could differ significantly. Consider a cut of meat—a striploin steak, for example: individual portions would be different in both weight and appearance (e.g., the hue, the shape, the pattern revealed after it was prepared for packaging). Customer preferences existed for fresh produce as well, and many shoppers preferred to personally inspect and select fruit and vegetables before they bought them. Third, transporting perishable goods such as produce, meat, and temperature-sensitive items like ice cream meant taking extra care to pick, pack, and transport irregularly shaped and fragile items. Fourth, there were costs involved in the picking, packing, and delivery processes that many customers did not factor into their trips. Many customers continued to focus on an item’s physical price and quality as the key deciding factor. Charging consumers for picking and delivery would only be possible once those consumers had been educated regarding the benefits of such services. In February 2018, with momentum building and Whole Foods being transformed into a de facto network of grocery shipping points for Amazon, it seemed possible that Amazon would finally resolve the challenge of last-mile grocery delivery (see Exhibit 4). Amazon seemed to be committing to the idea of delivering groceries to homes. On Thursday February 8, 2018, it announced that Prime subscribers in Austin, Cincinnati, Dallas, and Virginia Beach could get deliveries from Whole Foods in under two hours. There would be no charge for the service, and customers could order any stocked product, including fresh food such as meat, seafood, and flowers. 36 Amazon’s central business thesis seemed to be based in a drive to obtain market share in every imaginable category of product or service that could be delivered to consumers. Was this a case where Amazon had finally built—or bought—the resources and capabilities required to succeed in cracking the challenge of the last mile? Despite having tried for the better part of two decades, neither Amazon nor its competitors had been able to create a desirable e-grocery product—that is, a service that met consumers’ grocery needs and was profitable. Had Amazon devised a way to generate profits from the last mile? Were its rivals unable to respond because they were encumbered by high cost structures? As Bezos had said, “frugality drives innovation, just like other constraints do. One of the only ways to get out of a tight box is to invent your way out.” 37 Alternatively, it could be argued that Amazon was merely trying to drive its rivals—brick-and-mortar grocery stores—out of business. With market leadership, it could then boost margins at will. “Your margin is my opportunity,” Bezos had said on another occasion. 38 Observers wondered if Amazon would be the first company to succeed in this market and, if so, what the short- to medium-term implications were to its numbers. 66 Authorized for use only in the course MRKT 459 Retail Management_F21 at McGill University taught by Marie-Josee Lamothe from Sep 01, 2021 to Dec 31, 2021. Use outside these parameters is a copyright violation. Page 6 Page 7 9B18A025 Video/DVD Music Books Video Games Computer Software Personal Computers PC Peripherals Small Appliances Consumer Electronics Housewares Office Supplies Flowers Toys Sporting Goods Apparel Shoes Furniture Home Improvement Food and Drink 74.0% 72.7% 63.4% 60.6% 86.1% 73.4% 57.8% 41.3% 33.4% 35.6% 31.1% 30.7% 27.8% 21.3% 18.5% 14.6% 7.2% 2.5% 2.3% Source: Created by the case authors using data from Seth Sigman, Paul Bieber, Kieran McGrath, Lavesh Hemnani, “Home Furnishings Retail,” Credit Suisse, November 8, 2017, 28. 67 Authorized for use only in the course MRKT 459 Retail Management_F21 at McGill University taught by Marie-Josee Lamothe from Sep 01, 2021 to Dec 31, 2021. Use outside these parameters is a copyright violation. EXHIBIT 1: U.S. ONLINE CHANNEL SHARE BY CATEGORY (2016) 9B18A025 EXHIBIT 2: AMAZON—FINANCIAL STATEMENTS (Figures in $ millions, except per share amounts) Income Statement Revenue Operating Income 2016A 2017E 2018E $135,987 $177,910 $227,813 4,186 3,535 7,869 % Operating Income Margin 3.1% 2.0% 3.5% Pre-Tax Income 3,892 3,238 6,902 Income Tax −1,425 −1,223 −2,485 Net Income 2,371 2,011 4,417 484 493 502 Shares Outstanding EPS $4.90 $4.08 $8.79 % Growth 290.7% −16.8% 115.6% Adj. EBITDA $15,278 $19,002 $27,244 % EBITDA Margin 11.2% 10.7% 12.0% % Growth 43.7% 24.4% 43.4% Cash Flow Statement 2016A 2017E 2018E Cash Flow from Operations 16,442 18,444 25,992 Cash Flow from Investments −9,876 −28,387 −11,418 Debt −3,740 10,712 −7,837 Common Stock Dividends 0 0 0 Common Equity/Share Buybacks 0 0 0 −2,911 10,712 −7,837 Cash Provided from Financing −211 622 0 Ending Cash Balance 19,334 20,725 27,461 Balance Sheet 2016A 2017E 2018E Total Current Assets 45,781 59,269 72,473 Total Assets 83,402 127,333 150,337 Total Current Liabilities 43,816 56,809 65,205 Total Liabilities 64,117 100,661 113,989 Total Liabilities and Share Equity 83,402 127,333 150,337 Currency Effect Segment Details 2016A 2017E 2018E North America Revenue 79,784 106,229 136,262 International Revenue 43,984 54,403 68,158 AWS Revenue 12,219 17,278 23,393 2,361 2,248 4,101 −1,284 −2,977 −2,234 3,109 4,264 6,002 % Paid Unit Growth 26.8% 25.5% 24.0% Seller Units % Paid Units 49.0% 50.5% 52.7% North America Operating Income International Operating Income AWS Operating Income Source: Created by the case authors using data from Daniel Salmon, “Amazon.com”, BMO Capital Markets, October 27, 2017, 2. 68 Authorized for use only in the course MRKT 459 Retail Management_F21 at McGill University taught by Marie-Josee Lamothe from Sep 01, 2021 to Dec 31, 2021. Use outside these parameters is a copyright violation. Page 8 Page 9 9B18A025 Top Positive Review “During my 30 day trial of Amazon Fresh I have made a total of 4 Orders but only 3 out of 4 were successful. . . .” “So that same weekend of Order 1 I aimed to reserve a delivery for the next following Saturday. That’s where I hit my first road block. There weren’t any delivery dates available for the next 10 days because apparently they have . . . limited delivery availabilities. So I was forced to wait for the next available time, that being Wed [Wednesday] between 10am – 1pm while I was out. As I was expecting more green totes to be on my porch, when I returned home all I found was the totes from my last order I left to be picked up. I called Amazon to find out if they could tell me the [status] of my order. Long story short they refunded me for the entire order. . . .” “Order 4: In my last and final order of my free trial I thought I would do a repeat of skipping the store and just get everything I needed from Amazon Fresh. Now this was the largest order I’ve made yet in regards to item count. The results were quite similar to last order. This time USPS did pickup all the totes from Order 1 and 3. But however there were a few more casualties this time. As mentioned in Order 3, one tote again was densely packed with all of the delicate items. 2 cans were dented, pudding cups were pierced, and buns were smushed. I did call Amazon and I had probably one of the most pleasant conversations I’ve ever had with an Amazon rep [representative], they immediately refunded the items that were damaged or didn’t arrive in proper condition.” Top Critical Review “After a strong start they have gotten progressively worse over the last 2 years. The last issue and the ultimate reason I am cancelling is from old totes from previous orders. And this time it was the last straw because instead of just avoiding picking up the old totes, this driver took out each of the liners from them and dumped them into a pile on my front porch?? What’s weird is that Amazon even has writing on the liners that explains that they will take them back? (attached) After a number of calls and waits on hold, they still couldn’t tell why it happened or when/if someone was going to come back to pick them up??? The customer service team is separate from the transportation/logistics team and that team will not deal directly with customers?? I spoke with Shawn and she was really helpful and totally shocked that this would happen. Then I was transferred to Janelle (supervisor) who called the transportation team only to report that they would maybe call me and no firm commitment on picking up the junk they dumped out. I waited so long on hold I finally gave up. This amount of money for a service just isn’t worth it. Janelle told me that MAYBE the transportation team would call to speak with me. MAYBE??? UNREAL. If I didn’t capture it on video I wouldn’t have believed it.” Source: CreatiVast ARTS, “First 30 Days: It’s Been an Interesting Experience, Could Be Useful in the Future,” Amazon, November 19, 2016, accessed April 19, 2018, https://www.amazon.com/gp/customerreviews/R38G148LX2B5Z9/ref=cm_cr_arp_d_viewpnt?ie=UTF8&ASIN=B005DTBAU2#R38G148LX2B5Z9; Swansong34, “Amazon Fresh Driver Dumps Tote Liner Garbage on Porch. (Yes You Read That Right),” Amazon, October 5, 2016, accessed April 19, 2018, https://www.amazon.com/gp/customerreviews/R213Y7Z3TWUICY/ref=cm_cr_arp_d_viewpnt?ie=UTF8&ASIN=B005DTBAU2#R213Y7Z3TWUICY. 69 Authorized for use only in the course MRKT 459 Retail Management_F21 at McGill University taught by Marie-Josee Lamothe from Sep 01, 2021 to Dec 31, 2021. Use outside these parameters is a copyright violation. EXHIBIT 3: AMAZONFRESH REVIEWS 9B18A025 EXHIBIT 4: WHOLE FOODS MARKET—INCOME STATEMENT (Figures in $ millions, except per share amounts) Sept. 25, 2016 Sept. 27, 2015 15,724 10,313 15,389 9,973 14,194 9,150 5,411 4,477 64 13 5,416 4,472 67 16 5,044 4,032 67 11 Operating Income Interest Expense Investment and Other Income 857 −41 11 861 — 17 934 — 12 Income before Income Taxes Provision for Income Taxes 827 320 878 342 946 367 507 1.55 326.1 1.55 326.9 0.54 536 1.49 358.5 1.48 360.8 0.52 579 1.57 367.8 1.56 370.5 0.48 Sales Cost of Goods Sold and Occupancy Costs Gross Profit Selling, General, and Administrative Expenses Pre-Opening Expenses Relocation, Store Closure, and Lease Termination Costs Net Income Basic Earnings per Share Weighted Average Shares Outstanding Diluted Earnings per Share Weighted Average Shares Outstanding, Diluted Basis Dividends Declared per Common Share Sept. 28, 2014 Source: Created by the case authors using data from Whole Foods Market, Inc., Whole Foods Annual Report 2016, 17, accessed April 5, 2018, www.annualreports.com/HostedData/AnnualReports/PDF/NASDAQ_WFM_2016.pdf. 70 Authorized for use only in the course MRKT 459 Retail Management_F21 at McGill University taught by Marie-Josee Lamothe from Sep 01, 2021 to Dec 31, 2021. Use outside these parameters is a copyright violation. Page 10 Page 11 9B18A025 1 This case has been written on the basis of published sources only. Consequently, the interpretation and perspectives presented in this case are not necessarily those of Amazon.com Inc. or any of its employees. All currency amounts in U.S. dollars; Amazon, “Amazon Begins Grocery Delivery from Whole Foods Market with Plans for Expansion in 2018,” News release, February 8, 2018, accessed April 18, 2018, http://phx.corporateir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=176060&p=irol-newsArticle&ID=2331171. 3 Annie Palmer, “Why Amazon Could Soon Be Headed for a $1 Trillion Market Cap,” The Street, January 10, 2018, accessed April 18, 2018, https://www.thestreet.com/story/14445272/1/amazon-trillion-dollar-market-cap.html. 4 Chaitanya Ramalingegowda, “[Famous Failures] The Grocery E-Tailer that Raised over $800 Million and Went Public before Filing for Bankruptcy,” YourStory, September 15, 2014, accessed April 18, 2018, https://yourstory.com/2014/09/webvan-e-tailer/. 5 Tim Barry, “Amazon Improves upon Webvan to Create Grocery Business,” US Finance Post, June 16, 2013, accessed April 18, 2018, http://usfinancepost.com/amazon-improves-upon-webvan-to-create-grocery-business-1519.html. 6 Jason Del Rey, “Amazon Is Shutting down Its Fresh Grocery Delivery Service in Parts of At Least Nine States,” Recode, November 3, 2017, accessed April 18, 2018, https://www.recode.net/2017/11/3/16601488/amazon-fresh-cancellation-shutdown-grocery-delivery-whole-foods. 7 Megan Rose Dickey, “Amazon Reportedly Blames the U.S. Postal Service for Amazon Fresh Issues,” TechCrunch, November 15, 2017, accessed April 18, 2018, https://techcrunch.com/2017/11/15/amazon-blames-the-u-s-postal-servicefor-amazon-fresh-issues/. 8 Tonya Garcia, “This Is the $21 Billion Reason Amazon Wants to Build Its Own UPS,” Market Watch, February 13, 2018, accessed April 18, 2018, https://www.marketwatch.com/story/amazon-has-a-multibillion-dollar-reason-to-build-its-ownshipping-business-2018-02-09. 9 Daphne Howland, “Whole Foods’ Inventory System Reportedly Crushing Employee Morale,” Retail Dive, February 2, 2018, accessed April 18, 2018, https://www.retaildive.com/news/whole-foods-inventory-system-reportedly-crushing-employeemorale/516227/. 10 Christopher Groskopf, Nikhil Sonnand, and Youyou Zhou, “Amazon Buying Whole Foods Puts It Right Next to One-Third of America’s Richest Households,” Quartz, June 16, 2017, accessed April 18, 2018, https://qz.com/1008215/amazon-buyswhole-foods-amazon-is-now-right-next-to-75-million-of-americas-richest-shoppers/. 11 Anthony DiClemente and Lee Horowitz, “Amazon.com, Inc.,” Evercore ISI, December 5, 2017, 5. 12 Groskopf, Sonnand, and Zhou, op. cit. 13 Matthew Boyle, “How Bezos’s Grocery Shopping Shakes Up an $800 Billion Industry,” Bloomberg Technology, June 16, 2017, accessed April 18, 2018, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-06-16/bezos-s-grocery-shopping-shakes-upan-800-billion-industry. 14 Mary Ellen Biery, “The 15 Least Profitable Industries in the U.S.,” Forbes / Economy (blog), October 3, 2016, accessed April 18, 2018, https://www.forbes.com/sites/sageworks/2016/10/03/the-15-least-profitable-industries-in-the-us/#5ea752cd618a. 15 “Grocery Stores & Supermarkets: March 2013,” First Research. 16 Ibid; “What Is the Number of SKUs in a Typical Supermarket, Grocery Store, Fashion Retailer and an Electronics Retailer?” Quora, accessed April 18, 2018, https://www.quora.com/What-is-the-number-of-SKUs-in-a-typical-Supermarketgrocery-store-Fashion-retailer-and-an-electronics-retailer. 17 Brian Stoffel, “The Hidden Profit Machine for Grocery Stores,” The Motley Fool, August 26, 2013, accessed April 18, 2018, https://www.fool.com/investing/general/2013/08/26/the-hidden-profit-machine-for-grocery-stores.aspx. 18 Quora, “What Product Categories Generate Most Volume in a Grocery Store?,” Forbes / Tech (blog), August 7, 2013, accessed April 18, 2018, https://www.forbes.com/sites/quora/2013/08/07/what-product-categories-generate-most-volume-ina-grocery-store/#5366a7343d32. 19 Rebecca Lake, “Grocery Shopping Statistics: 23 Fun Size Facts to Know,” CreditDonkey, January 6, 2016, accessed April 18, 2018, https://www.creditdonkey.com/grocery-shopping-statistics.html. 20 Tom Hays, Pinar Keskinocak, and Virginia Malcome de Lopez, “Strategies and Challenges of Internet Grocery Retailing Logistics,” in Applications of Supply Chain Management and E-Commerce Research in Industry 92 (2004): 217–252. 21 Encyclopaedia Britannica Online, s.v. “Amazon.com: American Company,” accessed April 18, 2018, https://www.britannica.com/topic/Amazoncom. 22 “Form 10-K: Amazon Inc.,” United States Securities and Exchange Commission, accessed April 5, 2018, https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1018724/000101872418000005/amzn-20171231x10k.htm. 23 “Our Core Values,” Whole Foods Market, accessed April 18, 2018, https://www.wholefoodsmarket.com/missionvalues/core-values. 24 Whole Foods Markets, Annual Report 2016, accessed April 5,2018, http://www.annualreports.com/Company/whole-foodsmarket-inc 25 “Whole Foods Market,” Fortune 100 Best, accessed April 5, 2018, http://fortune.com/best-companies/2017/whole-foodsmarket/. 26 Brian Nowak and Keith Weiss, “Amazon Disruption Symposium,” Paper presented at symposium hosted by Morgan Stanley Research, London, December 6, 2017, 28. 27 Nowak and Weiss, op. cit., 29. 2 71 Authorized for use only in the course MRKT 459 Retail Management_F21 at McGill University taught by Marie-Josee Lamothe from Sep 01, 2021 to Dec 31, 2021. Use outside these parameters is a copyright violation. ENDNOTES 9B18A025 28 “Enhance Your Amazon Experience with Prime,” Amazon, accessed April 19, 2018, https://www.amazon.com/AmazonPrime-One-Year-Membership/dp/B00DBYBNEE. 29 “Prime Delivery,” Amazon, accessed April 19, 2018, https://www.amazon.com/b?node=15247183011. 30 Nowak and Weiss, op. cit. 31 “Thursday, April 5, 2018,” Day One: The Amazon Blog, April 5, 2018, accessed April 5, 2018, https://blog.aboutamazon.com. 32 Chason Gordon, “The Lunch Rush of the Future,” Eater, January 26, 2018, accessed April 19, 2018, https://www.eater.com/2018/1/26/16936242/amazon-go-seattle-store-no-cashiers. 33 Nick Statt, “Amazon’s Cashier-Free Go Stores May Only Need Six Human Employees,” The Verge, February 6, 2017, accessed April 19, 2018, https://www.theverge.com/2017/2/6/14527438/amazon-go-grocery-store-six-human-employeesautomation. 34 “Average Number of Checkouts per Supermarket Store in the United States from 2012 to 2015,” Statista, accessed April 19, 2018, https://www.statista.com/statistics/240964/average-number-of-checkouts-per-us-supermarket-store/. 35 Jeff Bezos, “2016 Letter to Shareholders,” Day One: The Amazon Blog, April 17, 2017, accessed April 19, 2018, https://blog.aboutamazon.com/working-at-amazon/2016-letter-to-shareholders. 36 Parmy Olson, “Amazon Just Unveiled Its Grand Plan for Whole Foods: To Make the ‘Last Mile’ The First Mile,” Forbes / Tech (blog), February 8, 2018, accessed April 19, 2018, https://www.forbes.com/sites/parmyolson/2018/02/08/amazonwholefoods-delivery-grocery-last-mile/#6473874b1300. 37 Jessica Stillman, “7 Jeff Bezos Quotes that Outline the Secret to Success,” Inc., May 7, 2014, accessed April 19, 2018, https://www.inc.com/jessica-stillman/7-jeff-bezos-quotes-that-will-make-you-rethink-success.html. 38 Ibid. 72 Authorized for use only in the course MRKT 459 Retail Management_F21 at McGill University taught by Marie-Josee Lamothe from Sep 01, 2021 to Dec 31, 2021. 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But few categories were as resilient last year as skin care, now the largest sector in the global cosmetics business. Facial creams and oils had already eclipsed foundation and mascara in popularity in recent years, and now with fewer public engagements to justify eyeshadows and lipsticks, public fascination with smoothing wrinkles and erasing pimples has only intensified. For the uninitiated, there had never been so many online forums and “skinfluencers,” or amateur experts with large digital followings, to turn to for advice and recommendations. Beauty products have always had a complex relationship with science: cosmetics are not regulated like medicine. But the more brands embrace the language of science, and turn influencers and consumers into believers who recommend their products to others, the larger an audience they will find. In this case study, BoF examines how Augustinus Bader and CeraVe found their customers, and in the process helped shift the centre of the beauty world from natural to clinical products. Through smart approaches to product development, marketing and distribution, they achieved success in an increasingly competitive and digitally driven beauty sector. Amid all this activity, two skin care brands stood out in the market, albeit with very different approaches to the business. Both Augustinus Bader, the ultra-luxury French and German brand co-founded by a stem cell researcher, and CeraVe, the drugstore and dermatologist office mainstay turned Gen-Z favourite, took off because their strategies reflected how consumers’ expectations and relationships with skin care brands have evolved. After several years where “clean” and “natural” brands were on the upswing — drawing consumers in with their pledge to avoid certain ingredients they deem toxic — the momentum has shifted to “clinical” brands. These companies offer products containing ingredients more likely to be found in a lab than a garden, such as retinol and peptides, and often have ties to the medical or pharmaceutical worlds. Have you been forwarded this Case Study? Read more deep-dive analysis by exploring a BoF Professional membership at businessoffashion.com/memberships or contact professional@businessoffashion.com businessoffashion.com 115 2 Market Context The Rise of the Language of Science Brands such as Goop, Vintner’s Daughter and True Botanicals adopted the language of “organic,” “natural” and “clean” beauty. Getty Images and Courtesy. Eva Longoria first appeared on television promoting L’Oréal products in 2005, kicking off a regular gig. In commercial after commercial, the actress, with unblemished skin and blindingly shiny hair, assured viewers they are “worth it” — the global brand’s famous slogan. The ads are textbook examples of the sort of glossy, glamorous marketing strategy that drove hundreds of billions of dollars in global beauty sales for decades. So two years ago, when Longoria’s newest commercial saw her carefully enunciating the words “hyaluronic acid,” instead of simply nailing a hair flip, it stood out. L’Oréal was playing catch-up: brands like The Ordinary, with products named after their active ingredients and packaged in plain bottles, had trained consumers to learn the names of obscure chemicals and to know their peptides from their retinoids. businessoffashion.com about 10 years ago,” said Robyn Watkins, a consultant with more than a decade of experience in product development. “We’re just in a new age, everybody’s super elevated… [And] that really does tie to how interested the consumer is in science.” L’Oréal’s campaign worked. Less than six months after it debuted, the brand boasted that its hyaluronic serum was the most popular mass-market serum, and that one vial was sold every minute. Hyaluronic acid is not new to skin care. What’s changed is how brands talk about it. Skin care is now the largest business within beauty, representing 30 percent of the global market in 2019, according to McKinsey & Company. It grew 6.4 percent year-over-year in 2019, to $140 billion globally, according to Euromonitor. But brands that want a slice of those sales are having to radically adjust their pitch to consumers. Aspirational language — think Olay’s “because younger-looking eyes never go out of fashion” campaign from a decade ago — is out, and technicalsounding jargon is in. “It was kind of a workhorse ingredient that wasn’t even sexy enough to even talk The shift is driven by the rise of the “self care” movement, or the philosophy that 116 3 Market Context Exhibit 1: Skin Care is King Skin care is the largest and fastest growing category in beauty, outpacing the makeup boom earlier in the decade. Fragrances Colour Cosmetics Hair Care Personal Care Beauty sales by category (2019 vs 2021F) (Percent) Skin Care $485 bn $491 bn 2019—2021F CAGR (%) 11 9 -12 14 -2 15 +2 30 +2 32 +5 15 14 29 30 2019 2021F Source: McKinsey & Company Forecasts reflect McKinsey perspective, MGI macro-economic scenarios and NPD, Nielsen, IRI, Amazon Stackline and publicly reported company financials for Q1 and Q2 2020. Note: Numbers do not precisely add up to 100 due to rounding. “Consumers were bombarded with a growing, constantly shifting vocabulary – ‘organic’ and ‘botanical,’ then later ‘natural’ and ‘clean.’” bettering one’s physical and mental health is the key to combating internal and external anxieties. But it’s also driven by fundamental changes in how consumers wear their makeup, where they seek out recommendations and how they come to value different ingredients. Even shoppers who aren’t contouring their cheeks on a daily basis have been seduced by indulgent rituals of serums and creams, encouraged by online communities of amateur experts. The roots of skin care’s current moment go back decades and span across industries. Consumers first grew more attuned to the ingredients in their food, and labels such as “organic” and “non-GMO” entered the mainstream. Soon, they turned their attention to the makeup, creams and serums they put on their face. The first wave of “cosmeceutical” brands, often fronted by dermatologists and sold in doctors’ offices, debuted in the 1990s and 2000s. Next came a wave of “natural,” or “clean” brands, claiming to be free from “bad” ingredients like essential oils and preservatives. In recent years, more brands have launched with evermore-restrictive formulations. Vintner’s Daughter and True Botanicals, among many others, market their products as free from parabens, mineral oils and other common ingredients. Goop, started by Gwyneth Paltrow as a newsletter in 2008, has come to serve as a clearinghouse for the luxury wellness marketplace. Established organic brands like Weleda and Jurlique upgraded their branding in response. Consumers were bombarded with an ever-expanding, constantly shifting vocabulary — “organic” and “botanical,” then later “natural” and “clean” — and a greater understanding of once-obscure ingredients such as sulfates and phthalates, now avoided by many consumers. The pandemic only escalated this shift, making skin care one of the most resilient sectors in fashion and beauty in 2020. Shoppers invested in their skin health knowing they were mostly going makeupfree, snapping up face washes, serums, masks and moisturisers. After a decline in 2020, the category is projected to reach $149 billion in global sales in 2021, up from $140 billion in 2019, according to Euromonitor, and is expected to represent 32 percent of the global beauty market, per McKinsey. After years of the beauty conversation focusing on “natural” brands, in 2020, “clinical” brands (whose products or ingredients were formulated in a lab or have ties to the fields of medicine or chemistry) grew by 3 percent in dollar businessoffashion.com 117 4 Market Context sales, while “natural” brands decreased by 9 percent, according to market research firm NPD Group, which tracks prestige brands’ sales at third-party retailers in the US. What was behind this shift? The beauty industry’s increased focus on marketing ingredients in recent years has put more emphasis on whether consumers feel these products have a real effect on their skin’s appearance. More than 50 percent of women researched skin care products online before buying them in 2019, according to NPD. Cosmetics aren’t medicine, and they aren’t regulated like food, so brands can make sweeping claims about their efficacy so long as they don’t cross the line into promising specific health benefits. L’Oréal, for example, crossed the line in 2014 when ads claiming one of its skin care products was “clinically proven” to “boost genes’ activity and stimulate the production of youth proteins” caught the attention of the US Federal Trade Commission. L’Oréal was charged with making “false and unsubstantiated claims” and later settled with the regulatory body. But for many brands, the risk of crossing the line is worth a potential slap on the wrist. Today’s consumers are eager to hear about how the latest cream performed in a transepidermal water loss test, for example, yet new ingredients tend to be introduced, popularised and discarded before peer-reviewed studies can catch up. Meanwhile, new brands like The Ordinary began offering some of the most popular ingredients used in luxury skin care products at bargain prices: its hyaluronic acid sells for $6.80 an ounce at Sephora, compared with $29.99 for L’Oréal’s hyaluronic serum at Ulta Beauty. Luxury brands had trained their customers too well; many began shopping for ingredients rather than the name on the label. What does this mean for skin care brands? In an age where every flaw can be removed from a selfie on Instagram, people are eager to find products they hope will allow them to attain the smooth, youthful skin of their favourite influencers in real life. And now that shoppers are eagerly reading all about which formulas might remove their wrinkles or reduce hyperpigmentation, “clinical” brands are reaping the benefits by aligning their products and formulas with dermatologists or scientific therapies. Brands like The Ordinary offer popular ingredients used in luxury skin care products at bargain prices. Shutterstock. businessoffashion.com 118 5 Challenges High Risk, High Reward “Skin care aficionados jump from product to product based on recommendations from online authorities or friends.” How can a brand find a foothold in the growing global skin care market? That was the challenge facing two companies at opposite ends of the pricing spectrum in recent years: the French and German luxury skin care brand Augustinus Bader, an upstart that debuted in 2018 with one cream retailing for nearly $300 and promising to “dramatically improve” the skin’s appearance, and CeraVe, the drugstore staple acquired by L’Oréal in 2017 and beloved by dermatologists for moisturising skin. For Augustinus Bader, the challenge was to woo luxury consumers who already had plenty of other choices. For CeraVe, the mandate was to bring an urgency and excitement to products that many consumers associated with the drugstore’s fluorescent lights and messy aisles. Both faced some of the same barriers to success. 01 — Skin care is a crowded and competitive market. Sephora alone carries hundreds of brands in dozens of niches, from “clean” products to Korean beauty innovations, to products targeting specific concerns, like acne or dry skin. And both Augustinus Bader and CeraVe have plenty of competitors in the “clinical” space, where brands with ties to healthcare or dermatology are increasingly popular. 03 — Building brand awareness can be expensive and slow. Of the top 10 cosmetics brands in the US by earned media value, according to Tribe Dynamics, only three have been operational for less than six years. 04 — Consumers expect a quick pace of new brand and product launches. Newness, rather than loyalty to a particular product or regimen, is what drives sales. The pandemic only increased consumers’ appetites. Cosmetics laboratory Above Rinaldi Labs co-founder Fred Khoury recently told BoF that his team worked on about 30 percent more skin care launches in 2020 than in the previous year. 05 — Consumers expect to feel results. Beauty brands can’t skimp on the formulas and pour all their money into marketing. Skin care shoppers are increasingly discerning and need to believe a product makes them look better in order to stick with the regimen, become repeat customers and — most importantly — tell their friends and followers. 02 — Consumers today can easily compare prices and ingredients online. Many skin care aficionados jump from product to product based on recommendations from online authorities or friends. Price point barriers are less meaningful and drugstore brands compete head-to-head with luxury rivals as a result. Digital distribution is key: e-commerce is the only channel projected to grow for beauty between 2019 and 2021, according to McKinsey & Company, with sales expected to increase by a compound annual growth rate of 36 percent. businessoffashion.com 119 6 Strategy Modernising the Clinical Approach Part I: Augustinus Bader In 2018, Augustinus Bader came to market with just two products, The Cream and The Rich Cream. Courtesy. 01 — Applied Science A decade ago, French financier Charles Rosier was investing in research on the treatment of spinal cord injuries when a mutual friend introduced him to German professor Augustinus Bader, known for his work with stem cells. On a visit to Leipzig University, where Bader was director and professor of applied stem cell biology and cell technology, Rosier saw a photograph of a young girl who was able to avoid a skin graft or scarring after a bad burn with a wound gel that Bader had developed in 2007. The treatment worked by signalling the stem cells within the patient’s skin to generate new, healthy tissue, Bader said. “I was surprised that something like that existed… and it was not widely available,” Rosier said in an interview. Bader had tried and failed to attract backing from pharmaceutical companies to test the gel on burn victims in clinical trials. Rosier suggested funding it by starting a skin care company instead. work and he said, ‘Yes, why?’” said Rosier. “It took me three years to convince him, because he had no real understanding of the skin care market.” Bader developed the first cream in 2017 and shared it with patients at his clinic. Their positive reaction convinced Bader to agree to start the business, said Rosier. And in early 2018, the Augustinus Bader brand came to market with just two products, The Cream and The Rich Cream, twin formulas for normal and dry skin respectively, promising a product that “[supports] the body’s innate renewal processes, dramatically transforming the complexion’s appearance.” In its marketing and conversations with the press, the brand drew a close connection between Bader’s research into regenerative medicine and the consumer cream. Though Bader was initially against the idea of using his own name for the brand, Rosier felt it would lend credibility to the fledgling company’s claims in a market full of miracle claims. “Very candidly, I asked him if he could create an anti-wrinkle cream that would businessoffashion.com 120 7 Strategy Exhibit 2: Endorsements Extend Reach Famous personalities publicly praising Augustinus Bader in the press has driven the brand’s reach. Augustinus Bader traditional press audience reach (March 2019) (Millions) 90 8 March 17 March Influencer Bag Snob says on forbes.com “I never travel without my Augustinus Bader Rich Cream” Augustinus Bader’s The Cream is publicised as a regular product of Victoria Beckham 80 70 “In the time of Google, and in a time where fact checking is possible, it was a way to encourage people to investigate and check who Augustinus Bader is, to be able to realise that the person is real, the research is real,” Rosier said. The compelling story would also help to justify the brand’s price point. At $265 per 50 millilitre bottle, The Cream cost less than luxury competitors like La Mer, but far more than the typical wrinkle cream found at Sephora. Rosier said some prospective early investors suggested setting the price closer to around $400 to communicate to the customer that the technology was worth it. But the founders discovered others willing to back their vision. To date, Augustinus Bader has raised more than $48 million from investors. A first round of $38 million was led by French businessman Jacques Veyrat’s Impala Group, along with other private equity firms and family offices. A subsequent $11 million round of private investors was led by Michael Dolan, the former chief executive of IMG Worldwide and Bacardí. 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 01-Mar 04-Mar 07-Mar 10-Mar 13-Mar 16-Mar 19-Mar 22-Mar 25-Mar 28-Mar 31-Mar The funding fueled the brand’s targeted, high-profile roll-out, with launch parties during fashion week, a store in Paris and sleek, futuristic packaging. Source: Meltwater 02 — Courting Recommendations Built around the anti-wrinkle cream, the Augustinus Bader line targets older customers, which presented unique challenges: a woman in her 40s or 50s is more likely to already be loyal to another product. And chasing the approval of the latest Instagram It girl, a common strategy for new skin care and cosmetics brands, wasn’t going to work with an older customer. For its influencer campaign, Rosier and his team of four first set their sights on Hollywood, rather than Instagram. One of the brand’s early investors was actress Melanie Griffith, through a connection of Rosier’s, along with her ex-husband, actor Don Johnson. Ahead of its public launch in February 2018, the actors shared samples within their celebrity circles. Soon Diane Kruger, Gwyneth Paltrow and celebrity facialist Joanna Czech were publicly praising the brand. In 2019, the brand collaborated with one of its biggest public fans, Victoria Beckham, who was rolling out a “clean” beauty brand of her own. The partnership helped drive spikes in audience reach a year after launch, according to data from Meltwater, as did an endorsement from blogger Tina Craig of Bag Snob. “We had a lot of unpaid and organic, true testimonials from celebrities in the Victoria Beckham is one of Augustinus Bader’s biggest public fans. Instagram. businessoffashion.com 121 8 Strategy press that were very positive for brand awareness,” Rosier said. Exhibit 3: Augustinus Bader Captured Attention During Pandemic As the brand rolled out new products to build off the success of The Cream, it managed to double its loyalty programme members from the prior year and increase purchase rates. Loyalty Programme Users (thousands) Augustinusbader.com (2018 — 2020) Conversion Rate (%) 1,300 1,228 10 8 975 6 632 650 437 325 2.75 2.87 1.48 4 2 0 0 2018 2019 2020 Exhibit 4: Better on the Regimen Returning customers represented a larger share of Augustinus Bader shoppers in 2020, proving the brand is resonating with people who have tried the products. Percentage New Number of Customers 60,000 80 46 61 54,189 75 40,000 50 54 25,675 39 20,000 25 20 8,252 0 0 2018 2019 2020 Source: Augustinus Bader businessoffashion.com 122 “Despite the fact that we were not advertising in magazines, and our PR agency was not so optimistic about the write-ups we could get, we had a lot of editorials, incredibly positive, of journalists sharing their own experience with The Cream,” Rosier said. 03 — Points of Sale Percentage Returning 100 The Bader team put careful effort into press relationships, even going so far as to bring Bader himself to meet with beauty writers over the course of a two and half day press event in New York City ahead of the launch in January 2018. The bookish German professor, now aged 61, looked different from the typical beauty entrepreneur. Writers and editors described The Cream as “miraculous” and “seriously transformative.” In a 2019 article chronicling the buzz, The Cut asked “Is This the Secret to Rich-Person Skin?” Its reputation secured, the brand embarked on a social media campaign, adopting the hashtag #thecreamthatworks. Source: Augustinus Bader Augustinusbader.com customers (2018—2020) Many consumers would need more than a celebrity endorsement to shell out $265 to give The Cream a try. Rosier and his team also targeted traditional press, hoping print and digital publications would take the time to explain Bader’s research and how The Cream was developed. A customer doing their research online would be likely to stumble upon an article laying out the brand’s story, including Bader’s work with burn victims and his patent. Initially, Augustinus Bader was sold exclusively on the brand’s own website. In spring 2018, Melanie Griffith and the stylist Elizabeth Sulcer passed the product along to Cassandra Grey, founder of Violet Grey, an online beauty boutique popular with stylists and their star clients. Shortly after, Carla Sozzani, the founder of 10 Corso Como and a friend of Rosier’s, also started selling the cream in Milan. These speciality shops added to the perception of the brand as an insider’s favourite, and brought customers to Augustinus Bader’s own site. In 2020, the number of loyalty programme members doubled. When Neiman Marcus and Barneys sought to carry Augustinus Bader exclusively in autumn 2019, the brand had more leverage to enter into agreements to sell at multiple competing department stores, quickly expanding its distribution in both chains and other major department stores, including Nordstrom and Harvey Nichols. The brand later expanded to a range of smaller 9 Strategy specialty multi-brand beauty retailers known for their curation, including Space NK, Bluemercury and Cos Bar, as well as dermatologists’ offices, facial spas and luxury boutiques, including The Row’s New York store and The Webster. 04 — Less Is More Like many beauty brands, Augustinus Bader started with one hero product: the face cream, its only product for the first 18 months of the business, which Rosier and his team hoped would convince customers that its differentiator, what the brand calls the Trigger Factor Complex 8 in its marketing, was worth buying. The business rapidly expanded its product offering between 2019 and 2020, rolling out products to underscore the brand identity it aims to build around healing and anti-aging. All of its subsequent releases, including a cleansing balm and body oil, boast the Trigger Factor Complex 8 component that the brand has already spent so much effort marketing to consumers. “In the long term, the way that our brand will exist and have room in the market is by being driven by the science and the quality and the efficacy of the formula,” said Rosier. “We cannot beat the big [conglomerate] marketing, because we will never have their budget.” And while the skin care category has thrived during the coronavirus crisis, Augustinus Bader has faced serious challenges, too. Its e-commerce business has grown, especially on its own website, but it has not replaced the sales lost by store closures and decreased foot traffic. Bader also had trouble sourcing some of its packaging from suppliers in Italy and had to pause some retail investments. The brand was expanding in hotels and spas before the pandemic, and had hired sales associates to better sell the products in department stores. The brand, which is entering its fourth year in business, is still unprofitable — not unusual for a new beauty brand, especially one backed by established investors. But growth is accelerating: Augustinus Bader generated $70 million in sales in 2020, up from $24 million in 2019 and $7 million in 2018. If the brand is to one day become a target for acquisition by one of the global beauty conglomerates, or find another exit through private equity or an initial public offering, it will need to build on the success of The Cream through new customers and new products with the same kind of cult following. “We’re trying to find an equilibrium… between trying to reach profitability, credibility of the brand, but not being the brand of only 1 percent of the people who could afford it,” said Rosier. But it’s yet to be seen if any of Augustinus Bader’s newest releases can rival the popularity of the original cream. Exhibit 5: Augustinus Bader Seeks to Build Off Its First Hit The brand is still primarily known for the face cream that it launched with (in two varieties), but it quickly expanded the range in 2020 with products that also boasted cellular benefits. The Hand Treatment Augustinus Bader product launches (2018—2020) The Cream Cleansing Gel The Body Lotion The Body Oil The Cleansing Balm The Face Oil The Essence The Body Cream The Cream & The Rich Cream 2018 The Lip Balm 2019 2020 Images Courtesy. businessoffashion.com 123 10 Strategy Part II: CeraVe CeraVe started out selling in drugstores and dermatologists’ offices. Courtesy. 01 — Humble Origins and Clinical Beginnings CeraVe was developed by a Texan pharmaceutical company, Coria Laboratories, in 2005 with a simple proposition: target consumers with dry skin with three simple, affordable products — a hydrating cleanser, moisturising cream and lotion. Drugstores and dermatologists’ offices would be its points of sale, as co-founder Tom Allison wanted it to gain credibility as a clinical line. Dermatologists would recommend CeraVe when prescribing treatments, such as a topical cream or new regimen. CeraVe has stuck to a formula-first ethos in the years since its debut. Early research showed that ceramides, a naturally occurring part of the skin that helps retain moisture, appeared in higher volumes in healthy skin. As a result, the team decided to make ceramides its hero ingredient. The brand spends an outsized amount on formulating what’s inside the bottle – and less so on its still spartan packaging — to keep its prices down. Generic plastic bottles and jars with bare bones branding don’t have the luxe appeal of more expensive skin care brands, but the brand’s hydrating facial cleanser sells for about $15. “We want it to look clinical. I’d rather give 16 ounces of a product for a chronic skin condition than 7 [ounces] for a betterlooking package,” Allison said. businessoffashion.com 124 CeraVe’s first-year sales, even with national distribution in CVS, Walgreens and Rite Aid, was just $1 million, he said. Three more products, a foaming facial cleanser and AM (with SPF) and PM facial moisturisers, launched right before CeraVe went into Target and Walmart in 2009. Allison explained that a big part of getting drugstore chains on board was talking about the value that a dermatological patient brings to the store. “There are great medications out there that are controlled by the FDA, but if you’re not cleansing and moisturising as part of a full regimen, you’re really asking that medication to work overtime,” Allison said. CeraVe was not the first mass brand to take this approach with drugstores. Competitors like Neutrogena, Olay and Clean & Clear were vying for the same customer, backed with celebrity-heavy marketing strategies. For CeraVe, the company’s simple point of view and minimalist regimen was at the core of the line. The brand only had three products for the first three years, never abandoned its basic packaging and never tried to look or feel more expensive than it was. Working closely with doctors and drugstores is what drove early momentum. The company hired 70 sales representatives to get face wash and moisturiser into drugstores and doctors’ offices across the country in the brand’s first years. CeraVe also invested in deluxe 11 Strategy samples that were mostly distributed in dermatology and pediatric offices, and were meant to mirror the full-size product. based dermatologist who has never been paid by either brand. “Everyone is different. What one person reacts to 100 people may not react to.” Once CeraVe was sold at drugstores throughout the US and soon after it added Target, Walmart and Amazon to its distribution channel, the business scaled rapidly. The company has been on an upwards trajectory for several years — hence the L’Oréal acquisition — but it wasn’t until the pandemic that CeraVe was considered “cool” by teens. It was the boring cleanser or moisturiser your dermatologist recommended – and now Gen-Zers brag about washing their face with CeraVe. There is no doubt that CeraVe’s prevalence on TikTok – at a time when people were couped up at home and glued to skin care content online – helped it stand out. CeraVe could be easily confused with another drugstore skin care staple: Cetaphil. Also a dermatologist favourite that’s been around for over 70 years, both companies have similar names and equally unmemorable packaging and branding. Plenty of consumers feel there’s little difference, though some find CeraVe to be more moisturising. “As a doctor, we view them as mostly interchangeable. As a consumer, it would come down to your personal preference on texture, how it feels, fragrance and how your skin responds,” said Dr Shereene Idriss, a leading New York- 02 — L’Oréal Acquisition and Global Expansion L’Oréal acquired CeraVe from Valeant Pharmaceuticals International (now Bausch Health Companies), a pharmaceutical company in Canada, in 2017 along with two other brands for a combined $1.3 billion. CeraVe was a good fit for L’Oréal’s fastgrowing “active cosmetics” division, which included brands like La RochePosay and SkinCeuticals that were developed by health care professionals or had a more clinical image. At the time of the acquisition, the division was the most profitable at L’Oréal, and CeraVe filled a gap as a lower price product. Within a year, L’Oréal expanded CeraVe to 25 global markets and was manufacturing in Europe and Latin America. “CeraVe is a fantastic bet,” said L’Oréal chief executive Jean-Paul Agon in February 2020. “It’s going to become, I think, one of the biggest brands of L’Oréal worldwide.” Allison agrees that the brand still has a lot of room for growth. “Even today, we’re at 50 percent awareness, compared to Neutrogena, which is 95 percent awareness in the US,” Allison said. “There’s so much runway just in the US.” Neutrogena’s almost double consumer awareness is a signal that although CeraVe has grown exponentially, there are still plenty of people who have not heard of the often sold-out foaming face cleanser. 03 — TikTok and The Hyram Effect Influencers who cared more about ingredients than branding, a departure from the first wave of digital content creators in the beauty space, were responsible for much of CeraVe’s newfound popularity in 2020. Gen-Z guru Hyram Yarbro, a 24-year-old “skinfluencer” (skin care influencer), first mentioned the line, specifically its Salicylic Acid Renewing Cleanser, in May 2019, and his young audience responded by heading to their local stores. Gen-Z guru and “skinfluencer” Hyram Yarbro first mentioned CeraVe in 2019. TikTok. businessoffashion.com 125 12 Strategy “It went from a brand that dermatologists were labouring over trying to recommend to their clients… to now being sold out.” “We did see an immediate impact at retail — dramatic, I would say,” Allison said. Videos and posts featuring the brand’s distinctive, white oversized bottles were everywhere, further differentiating it from its drugstore competitors. CeraVe’s earned media value (EMV) more than tripled from the first quarter of 2018 to the third quarter of 2020, according to Tribe Dynamics. And the brand’s EMV grew faster than the average increase seen by the top 10 skin care brands in the market. — Hyram Yarbro “We weren’t like, ‘Hey, everybody take your before and afters,’ because I don’t think you can with this Gen-Z generation,” said Allison. “It has to come from them.” Yarbro, who had a meteoric rise to TikTok superstardom last year, prefers to recommend products his young fanbase can afford. In the early days of the pandemic, when the influencer’s audience size accelerated, he continued to recommend CeraVe products. He didn’t have a paid relationship with the brand at that point. “I actually looked at the ingredient list and I was like, ‘Wow, I didn’t know the formulas were this good,’” said Yarbro, who once thought CeraVe was “just a drugstore brand.” The influencer said the label’s focus on dermatology, skin health and simplicity — minimal step regimens with ingredients that are associated with not irritating the skin — outweighed the clinical, unsexy packaging, which was part of the reason he overlooked the brand for so long. “I didn’t anticipate the level of ‘macro’ that my recommendations would access,” Yarbro said of the number of people who went out to buy CeraVe because of his videos. “I’m happy for it because it means so many less people would likely experience irritation than if I were to recommend something with all these crazy plant extracts, fragrances and essential oils [ingredients Yarbro advocates against]… It went from a brand that dermatologists were labouring over trying to recommend to their clients… to now being sold out. It’s a cool transition.” 04 — Capitalising on Clinical Roots and Influencer Culture Even though CeraVe is officially a TikTok trend, leading to stock shortages online and in stores over the past year, the label has no plans to abandon its clinical roots. A key strategy for 2021 is to extend the brand’s presence with pediatricians and primary care providers. Exhibit 6: Social Media Embraces a Drugstore Brand Influencers took notice of CeraVe in recent years, recommending its products and driving a surge in user-generated content online, featuring its distinctive, oversized white bottles. 1,213 Influencers CeraVe earned media value USD (millions) 7.25 6.84 6.32 5.88 387 Influencers 3.81 3.57 2.17 1.62 Q1 18 1.70 1.70 Q2 18 Q3 18 Q4 18 To kick off the campaign, Yarbro moderated a panel of three dermatologists at the conference to discuss cleansing. Key themes included the importance of skin pH, picking the right cleanser, cultural differences in cleansing by country and how and when to cleanse. “Hyram, as discussion host, brought his followers’ concerns and his thoughts as well,” said Allison, adding that the objective of the campaign was to dispel misconceptions and myths about washing one’s face and communicate the brand’s “dos and don’ts” of cleansing. With Yarbro, the brand made the conversation appealing to a new generation. 2.63 1.99 But going forward, CeraVe has to balance its long-term relationships in the dermatological community with its newfound social media status. Last autumn, the brand brought its clinical heritage and skinfluencers together for the first time during its “Cleanse Your Skin Week” campaign, which coincided with the European Academy of Dermatology and Venereology conference. Q1 19 Q2 19 Q3 19 Q4 19 Q1 20 Q2 20 Q3 20 Q4 20 Source: Tribe Dynamics businessoffashion.com 126 13 Lessons Rethinking the Playbook “Health is the future of beauty.” — Brigitte Liberman Augustinus Bader and CeraVe, despite their widely different price points, distribution methods and marketing approaches, have found a growing and enthusiastic audience in recent years. L’Oréal had already marked the popularity of “clinical” brands in 2019, when its “active cosmetics” division of brands recommended or distributed by healthcare professionals, registered a growth rate of 15.5 percent, the division’s highest in 20 years. The boom continued in the first six months of 2020, when the L’Oréal division saw revenue grow by 9 percent, even as most of its other categories, including the luxury division, declined. (Skin care overall had a strong 2020, but still saw a slowdown from the pandemic store closures.) CeraVe’s revenue, which L’Oréal does not break out, grew 62 percent year-over-year during the same period. “Health is the future of beauty,” said Brigitte Liberman, L’Oréal’s head of active cosmetics, in February 2020. “That is our conviction and our answer to the consumer’s search for more efficacy, more safety, more trust, more professional endorsement.” Meanwhile, Bader, still at a much smaller stage after only three years in business, saw sales almost triple in 2020 to about $70 million. For beauty entrepreneurs and brand managers, the success of these two brands provides lessons on how to approach a competitive sector. 01 — Embrace the language of science and tell a clear, ingredientbased story. In their product design and marketing strategies, Augustinus Bader and CeraVe focused more on their formulas and how they purport to work than they did on a certain outcome or effect on the skin. In their marketing messages, these brands explained in layman’s terms why, for example, ceramides help the skin barrier or how Bader’s stem cell research could be applied to a face cream. Consumers are thinking about skin care as more than a skin-deep transformation, even if the science doesn’t prove so, and want to shop from brands that take self care as seriously as they do. businessoffashion.com 127 02 — Court recommendations to cultivate a reputation of effective products. In an age of skin care Reddit threads and product reviews, Augustinus Bader and CeraVe embraced the power of organic endorsement by encouraging people to just try their products — knowing that consumers who believed their products to be effective would be its most powerful marketers. The endorsement of dermatologists or “skinfluencers” or Hollywood stars, who have more credibility speaking to the results than the brand itself, have been critical to building both brands’ reputations. And it can be a powerful statement in the form of a TikTok showing how someone’s skin cleared up after using CeraVe, or when a friend says that Augustinus Bader was worth the price tag. 03 — Trendy words like “clean” and “natural” or even “clinical” can be limiting. The jumble of ingredients and competing claims about what’s helpful and harmful makes brands that cut through the clutter more appealing. While CeraVe and Augustinus Bader can be considered “clinical” brands, they don’t try to claim these categories. Augustinus Bader avoids many of the chemicals that worry “natural” brand fans, as they explain on their site and with a “free from” label on their products, but that approach isn’t how they differentiate themselves on the market. Meanwhile, CeraVe focuses on its popularity with dermatologists. Beauty’s labels can be limiting. And brands that boast the absence of certain ingredients without proving that they have some positive effect on the skin will have a harder time keeping customers or earning a recommendation to a friend or follower, said Watkins. 04 — Offer a multi-pronged distribution strategy. In a previous era of the beauty business, certain types of brands were only sold in certain stores: doctor brands were found at dermatologists’ offices, luxury products were at department store counters, “organic” beauty was found at health food stores and mass market basics were found at drugstores. 14 Lessons Today, those channels are heavily mixed because customers are more educated about the products they want to buy, and know that there is little separating a $15 bottle of face wash and one that costs three times as much — besides luxe packaging and more dollars spent on marketing. The ingredients say more about a product than who decides to sell it. e-commerce is now the most important channel, and will become a larger sales generator than drugstores and grocery stores in 2021, according to data from McKinsey & Company. “There is so much more to the skin care world than just what’s available in [speciality] retail,” Yarbro said. And despite product shortages after going viral on TikTok, CeraVe is easy to find at drugstores, Amazon and even mass market beauty retailer Ulta. But it is also still found in dermatologists’ and doctors’ offices, where it maintains its clinical, nononsense credentials. Meanwhile, Augustinus Bader is found in a range of vendors the luxury skin care shopper is already familiar with, from high-end spas to luxury department stores. But for the true repeat customer, it is also available on its own site. Indeed, Exhibit 7: Beauty’s Online Battleground Online beauty sales are expected to almost double in 2021, taking market share from all other channels. Beauty retail sales channels (2019 vs 2021F) (Percent) 2019—2021F CAGR (%) E-Commerce 10 19 +36 Drugstore Grocery 17 16 -2 Mass, Club Retailers Beauty Specialist Retailers 17 16 Direct -1 15 Department Stores Other Channels 14 -1 14 -1 Travel Retail 14 8 8 4 8 8 -2 6 4 4 -12 -4 -27 2021F 2019 Source: McKinsey & Company Forecasts for global beauty recovery by region, category and channel, reflect McKinsey perspective, MGI macro-economic scenarios and NPD, Nielsen, IRI, Amazon Stackline and publicly reported company financials for Q1 and Q2 2020. Note: Numbers do not precisely add up to 100 due to rounding. businessoffashion.com 128 15 Looking Ahead Watkins, the consultant and product developer. “I think we will enter into this new age of debunking a lot of the unsubstantiated fear mongering that’s been the shadow side of clean beauty.” “If you’re faced with the choice of here’s two like-products, one is clean, and one is not, right now you have some consumers that may not care either way,” she said. “But as the younger consumer grows older, you’re going to start to see a shift in that. And so I believe that this is in its infancy, but it will eventually, or could potentially sweep the industry, years down the road.” The rise of “clean,” “natural” and “safe” beauty products is a consumer driven movement, especially in the United States where there are very few regulations or restrictions for cosmetics. But it’s also a global movement, as consumers everywhere become more sophisticated about their purchases. Shoppers who cared about avoiding certain ingredients previously had to take it upon themselves to navigate the options, armed with internet research from crowd-sourced resources or brand marketing. The education and interest in formulas will continue, Watkins said, adding that collagen, elastin, keratin and other “building blocks of skin and hair health” are being developed in labs and will become more mainstream terms. How a product makes a consumer feel will still be important in other beauty categories, like fragrances, she said. But skin care, with its promise of transformation, has to deliver something more. Larissa Jensen, vice president and industry advisor for NPD, only sees “clean” beauty growing as a larger share of consumers seek to avoid certain ingredients, and more brands find alternatives to the now-questionable molecules of a prior era of the business. But as more consumers realise affordable products can be just as good as luxury ones, brands across the skin care market will need to work harder to convince people their products are better than those of their competitors. And 2020 has proven that ingredients will continue to be the most compelling factor. “For maybe the last two years, it’s been this huge return to science because you really do want efficacy and not everything that is synthetic is bad for you,” said Exhibit 8: The Future Beauty Opportunity China’s beauty market is expected to grow faster than other markets, while Europe, the US and Japan will take longer to return to pre-pandemic performance. Beauty market size, year-on-year performance vs 2019 (Percent) 40 20 China 0 USA -20 Japan Western Europe -40 -60 J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M 2020 J J 2021 A S O N D J F M A M J 2022 Source: McKinsey & Company Forecasts reflect McKinsey perspective, MGI macro-economic scenarios and NPD, Nielsen, IRI, Amazon Stackline and publicly reported company financials for Q1 and Q2 2020. businessoffashion.com 129 16 Further Reading • The Business of Fashion, Does Every Makeup Brand Need a Skin Care Line? • The Business of Fashion, Beauty Will Make a Quick Comeback, But the Market Will Have Changed • The Business of Fashion, How to Market an Affordable Skin Care Brand • The Business of Fashion, How to Compete With CeraVe and The Ordinary • The Business of Fashion, Is Clean Beauty Now a Dirty Word in Europe? • The Business of Fashion, How to Build a Beauty Brand With Just One Product • The Business of Fashion, What’s Selling in Beauty Right Now • The Business of Fashion, How Doctor Brands Cash In on Authority • The Business of Fashion, How Skincare Brands Are Selling Science • The Cut, Is This the Secret to Rich-Person Skin? • Glossy, ‘We don’t want to be La Mer’: Augustinus Bader’s Charles Rosier on creating the next cult beauty brand • Refinery29: How Augustinus Bader Became A Cult Skin-Care Brand Overnight • The Business of Fashion, The Skin-Care Brand That’s Unexpectedly All Over TikTok • CNN: The skincare industry is booming, fueled by informed consumers and social media • The Washington Post: The Internet has strong feelings about these skin-care products. We asked pros to weigh in. businessoffashion.com 130 17 Copyright © 2020, The Business of Fashion Ltd. All rights reserved All information contained herein is the sole property of The Business of Fashion Limited. The Business of Fashion Limited reserves all rights regarding the use of this information. Any unauthorised use, such as distributing, copying, modifying, or reprinting, is not permitted. Please contact professional@businessoffashion.com for more copies. Design by Chelsea Carpenter Edited by Brian Baskin and Hannah Crump Front cover image: Courtesy Discover our complete online courses and learning resources at: businessoffashion.com/education info@businessofashion.com businessoffashion.com 131 18 Case Study Inside Nike’s Radical Direct-toConsumer Strategy By Chantal Fernandez How did Nike’s share price hit an all-time high in the middle of a pandemic? The American sportswear giant’s success is rooted in a radical direct-to-consumer strategy built around content, community and customisation, and conceived for a post-internet world where brand connections are everything. businessoffashion.com 132 December 2020 Executive Summary In October 2020, in the middle of a global pandemic that had infected 188 countries, causing record sales damage across the retail sector, Nike’s share price hit an all-time high. Like other retailers, Nike had been forced to close most of its network of more than 900 stores across the world, as had its key wholesale partners like Nordstrom and Foot Locker. But the American sportswear giant’s performance during the pandemic, when its online sales spiked, signalled to many that Nike had the competency to prosper long term, in a future that will be increasingly defined by e-commerce and digital brand connections. It was a validation of a strategy that Nike prioritised three years ago, dubbing it “Consumer Direct Offense,” but the seeds of the approach go back almost a decade. Above all, Nike is a marketing company. It doesn’t just sell sneakers; it sells the brand aspiration that imbues those sneakers with meaning. But to achieve the reach required to scale its business, Nike’s distribution strategy had long-relied on third-party retailers to sell its products, even if the consumer experience offered by those partners diluted its brand. Such an evolution is easier said than done, especially for a business as large as Nike in a category as competitive as sportswear. But by radically cutting back on its wholesale distribution and raising the bar for brand experience with the third-party partners that remained; expanding its focus on content, community and customisation to keep customers close; investing in its data analytics and logistics capabilities; and rethinking the role of the store as a brand stage, Nike drove a veritable direct-to-consumer revolution. When the pandemic hit, these shifts went into overdrive. “It was definitely architecting a new retail, and a bold, retail vision for Nike,” said Heidi O’Neill, Nike’s president of consumer and marketplace, and one of the most prominent executives leading the brand’s new strategy in recent years. “But it started with our consumer, and we knew that consumers wanted a more direct relationship with us today.” In this case study, BoF breaks down Nike’s pioneering direct-to-consumer strategy and how it has worked to the brand’s advantage, propelling its share price to new heights during the global crisis of 2020. But in a future increasingly defined by e-commerce, fast-moving trends and, above all, the rising power of branding to drive consumer preference when competitors are just a click away, Nike realised that in order to thrive, it needed to take control of its distribution to better manage its brand and deepen its connection with consumers. Have you been forwarded this Case Study? Read more deep-dive analysis by exploring a BoF Professional membership at businessoffashion.com/memberships or contact professional@businessoffashion.com businessoffashion.com 133 2 History and Market Context A Tension Between Brand and Reach A Sports Authority store, once one of Nike’s largest retailers, displaying Nike merchandise. Getty Images. Exhibit 1: From Playing Catch-Up to Slam Dunk Nike’s share price climbed to an all-time high in October as it benefitted from a series of recent strategic decisions, including a focus on direct-to-consumer channels, which boomed during the pandemic. Share price, market close (USD) Indexed to 100 on Jan 4, 2016 October 2020 Nike’s share price hits a new all-time high 220 200 March 2020 Nike’s share price dips at the outbreak of Covid-19 180 September 2018 Nike announces campaign starring Colin Kaepernick 160 June 2017 Nike announces its DTC strategy to investors 100 80 60 40 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Source: Yahoo Finance businessoffashion.com American sportswear giant Nike was no exception. As the virus spread across the world, the brand was forced to close 75 percent of its stores in China at the beginning of the year and 90 percent of its stores in the rest of the world (except Korea) for about eight weeks in the spring. These closures left the company with 31 percent more inventory than the prior year. With revenue growth in the first nine months of its fiscal year, which ended May 13, Nike Inc finished the year with a total revenue decline of 4 percent. Meanwhile, the global fashion industry is expected to see a year-on-year revenue contraction of up to 30 percent in 2020, according to The Business of Fashion and McKinsey & Company’s The State of Fashion 2021. 140 120 Starting in early 2020, the coronavirus pandemic threw the global fashion market into chaos. Brands grappled with store closures, supply chain disruption and a precipitous downturn in consumer spending. 134 But five months later, Nike emerged as one of the pandemic’s biggest winners when, in October, its share price, up 28 percent year-to-date, hit an all-time high. 3 History and Market Context Exhibit 2: Rivals Shift to DTC Nike’s peers are making similar shifts to increase direct-to-consumer sales. Direct-to-consumer revenue Percentage share FY 2018 FY 2019 30 Nike 32 30 Adidas 33 35 Under Armour 34 Source: Companies Exhibit 3: Under Pressure From Adidas Nike’s share price surge in 2020 comes after more modest growth over the last four years, during which arch-rival Adidas soared. Stock price, market close (USD) Indexed to 100 on Jan 4, 2016 Adidas Nike Under Armour 400 300 200 100 0 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Source: Yahoo Finance businessoffashion.com 135 Just four years ago, Nike’s future as the global sportswear leader was uncertain. While the Beaverton, Oregon-based brand still dominated the market with its inspiring and provocative marketing, rooted in unleashing human potential and fronted by a heavy roster of celebrity athletes, it was losing share to fastgrowing competitors — especially Adidas. While Nike kept its marketing focus on carefully controlled collaborations with athletes, its German rival had more forcefully courted cultural influencers, not only forging a lucrative, long-term partnership with Kanye West, but “opensourcing” its brand to a universe of lesserknown but culturally powerful partners, from musician Pharrell Williams and artist Daniel Arsham to designer Raf Simons and skate brand Palace. It was a winning strategy, as young consumers in particular flocked to sneakers less for their performance features than for their aesthetic and lifestyle attributes. In 2016, Adidas’ trendy and casual Stan Smith and Superstar styles became the top-selling sneakers in the US. It became clear that Adidas was seriously threatening Nike on its home turf. When Nike released its Cortez lifestyle sneaker the following year, with an extensive and expensive marketing push, the release fell flat with consumers. Nike’s brand growth rate decreased by 4 percentage points in 2016, and was flat in 2017. The company needed to rethink its priorities and reassert its brand. Nike is a leader in product innovation, but more than anything, the company trades on the power of its brand marketing. “They’re such good storytellers and they know how to engage people better than anybody else,” said Sam Poser, analyst at Susquehanna International Group. And yet, in search of scale, Nike had longrelied on a large network of third-party retailers to sell its products, even if the consumer experience offered by those partners diluted its brand. In 1964, Phil Knight founded the company that would later become Nike as a distributor of Japanese running shoes, which were, at the time, considered the best in the world. When the brand started designing its own shoes, it needed sporting goods shops and department stores to reach customers. Less than a decade later, Knight enticed the company’s biggest retailers to place larger and non-refundable product orders, which came with a discount, in a strategy he called “Futures.” This approach soon represented the bulk of Nike’s wholesale revenue. By the time the company went public in 1980, it sold its shoes through 8,000 retailers. 4 History and Market Context Nike’s Mark Parker presenting the consumer-led transformation to investors in October 2017. Nike. “Everything the organisation did moving forward would now be in service of a more efficient, direct-toconsumer business.” But nearly three decades later, the wholesale market was facing an existential challenge. More shoppers did more of their shopping online, where they could browse any number of sites and no longer relied on retailers to curate products for them. Multi-brand stores leaned more and more on discounts to keep shoppers coming back. Nike had long been able to cast a powerful brand halo over its products, even when consumers found them at third-party retailers. But over time, not even the most inspirational multi-million-dollar marketing campaign could offset the way wholesale was increasingly diluting its brand identity — and disintermediating its consumer relationships. And even if Nike could have simply dialed up its already enormous marketing budgets, it was inefficient, especially now that the internet allowed Nike to scale distribution through its own channels in a way that would actually strengthen — and not damage — brand equity. Moreover, as the internet put competitors a click away, removing friction from the purchasing path and making brand identity an even more powerful driver of consumer preference, Nike needed to have more agency over its relationships with shoppers. Digital was also changing customer expectations. “They expected us to know them across our ecosystem, from app to app, from physical to digital,” O’Neill told The Business of Fashion. businessoffashion.com 136 Nike was far from the only brand to realise the urgent priority to take control of its distribution channel as part of a digital transformation across the company. But with more than $32 billion in annual sales in fiscal 2017, such a fundamental shift was not going to be a simple proposition. Though it had been laying the groundwork for a transformation for much of the past decade, Nike first presented its ambitious plan to investors in June 2017 in a strategy it dubbed “Consumer Direct Offense,” which the company described as fuelled by a “Triple Double” consisting of “2X Innovation, 2X Speed and 2X Direct connections with consumers.” As part of the strategy, the company aimed to double the amount of sales through direct channels — online and off — while prioritising just 40 of its 30,000 wholesale partner relationships; cutting production timelines in half; and generating more of its sales from its more differentiated product lines, such as its “React” and “Vapormax” models. Everything the organisation did moving forward would now be in service of a more efficient, direct-to-consumer business centred on building closer, more powerful brand connections with customers, from new store concepts to mobile apps and technology investments. 5 The Challenge Changing Channels Amid Crises While direct-to-consumer sales were the fastest-growing part of Nike’s business in fiscal 2017, they only represented 28 percent of revenues. Competitors were making similar investments in their digital channels, while working strategically to steal market share. How would such a giant and multichannel brand as Nike take back control of its distribution and invest in brand connections, without shrinking or losing the support of shareholders? “The non-digital natives of us out there are looking to see how we can thrive and be connected to consumers in a digitalfirst world,” said O’Neill at Recode’s Code Commerce event in September 2017, framing the problem Nike faced as a brand born pre-internet seeking to still dominate in a digital age. “Competitors were... working strategically to steal market share.” The strategy required a significant internal reorganisation, which has led to a series of substantial staff cuts, as well as a cultural shift that came during a time of corporate crises at Nike. While these issues had minimal impact on brand perception with consumers, they caused significant internal turmoil at a time when the company couldn’t afford the distraction. In 2018, while the company was in the middle of a multi-year effort to grow its women’s business, female leaders at the company started what the The New York Times described as a “small revolt,” and more than six top male executives shortly resigned from the company, including Nike brand president Trevor Edwards, long eyed to succeed chief executive Mark Parker. The following year, the United States Anti-Doping Agency banned Nike running coach Alberto Salazar for allegedly violating rules. “The decision had nothing to do with administering banned substances to any Oregon Project athlete,” said a representative for Nike. “We support Alberto in his decision to appeal and wish him the full measure of due process that the rules require.” A few weeks later, Parker announced that he would step down as CEO in early 2020 in a long-planned transition, to be replaced by board member John Donahoe, the former top executive at eBay and the chairman of PayPal. Donahoe’s selection underscored Nike’s growing focus on a digital, customer-first future — one that has also come with continued internal reorganisation and leadership changes, such as the exit of the chief operating officer and the president of consumer and marketplace. Donahoe also announced a shift to organise the business around the women’s, men’s and children’s categories, a simplification of the previous structure organised around different sports activities. Meanwhile, outside Nike, America’s “culture wars” were raging and a new generation of consumers, more polarised than ever, were turning to brands to take a stand on values with which they identified. As Nike sought to expand its footprint in athleisure, lifestyle shoes and apparel, it increasingly addressed more than sporting excellence in its marketing. While the brand had made politically charged statements before, its 2018 campaign with American football player Colin Kaepernick, known for his Black Lives Matter activism, was a watershed, sparking controversy that was ultimately positive for brand appeal. Nike’s world headquarters campus in Beaverton, Oregon. Nike. businessoffashion.com 137 6 The Strategy ‘Consumer Direct Offense’ 01 — Radical Recalibration in Wholesale By only focusing on 40 wholesale partners who offer a differentiated retail presence, Nike can avoid brand dilution and drive stronger connections with consumers. A Nordstrom x Nike sneaker boutique. Nordstrom. When one of Nike’s largest retailers, the American multi-brand sporting goods chain Sports Authority, filed for bankruptcy in 2016, the store owed the brand a whopping $47.9 million. It was one of the first retail victims of the end of the big box era, and was ultimately forced to completely shut down. One New Jersey seller resold $200,000 worth of Nike merchandise he picked up in the liquidation, and grossed about $1 million, according to The Wall Street Journal. This was exactly the kind of situation Nike wanted to move to avoid as the wholesale market unraveled. At Nike’s 2017 investor day presentation, then chief executive Mark Parker made headlines when he announced that, moving forward, the brand would prioritise only 40 of its 30,000 retail partners with marketing initiatives and special products. It marked the beginning of a culling of wholesale customers, in which the brand cut and minimised its relationship with any retailer that didn’t make extra efforts to make Nike’s brand more appealing to shoppers, a phased strategy that continues today. businessoffashion.com Nordstrom, Foot Locker and Zalando were some of the first partners to be chosen for their special, deeper relationships, with each retailer offering Nike a specific strategic advantage — and making a commitment to present Nike in a “differentiated” way compared to competitors. “Nike, or any other brand for that matter, should be looking at their partners and saying, ‘you know what, I can sell my stuff anywhere,’” said Poser. “So what’s in it for me as a brand, and what’s in it for them?” Some retailers, like boutique sneaker store Concepts, gave Nike clout and authenticity in the sneaker space. Others, like Foot Locker, allowed Nike to reach a sneaker enthusiast who wants to choose from a wider selection of brands and products, or a younger customer who has not yet developed the kind of loyal relationship with Nike that could continue throughout their life. Nordstrom provided a leg up in the underpenetrated women’s market. At Foot Locker, what Parker and other Nike executives referred to as 138 “differentiated retail” came to life with special pop-up stores and specially trained sales associates. Then, in 2019, Foot Locker even went so far as to allow shoppers to check out in stores with the Nike mobile app, further integrating the third-party retailer into the Nike world. “Some retailers... gave Nike clout and authenticity in the sneaker space. Others... allowed Nike to reach a sneaker enthusiast who wants to choose from a wider selection of brands and products.” That same year, Nike raised the minimum annual amount of products its retailers needed to commit to sell to keep working with the brand, according to reporting from The Times. It continued to cut 7 The Strategy out retailers, many of them small and independent, that did not make special accommodations for Nike. At the other end of the scale spectrum, Nike even cut off its relationship with e-commerce juggernaut Amazon after a highly publicised test period. In 2017, after years of eschewing the “Everything Store” Nike has begun to expand its presence on Amazon with a small assortment of products. Despite Nike’s official absence on the marketplace, unauthorised (and in some cases counterfeit) products made Nike the most purchased brand on the site, according to a Morgan Stanley survey in 2017, which showed Amazon offered 73,000 Nike items at the time. Competitors Adidas and Under Armour had already been selling on the marketplace as official partners for years. Amazon reportedly promised to cut down on the sale of unauthorised Nike products. But even after the company developed an official relationship with Amazon, these unauthorised sales continued and Nike pulled out two years later, citing its focus on “direct, personal relationships.” The experiment was a failure, and the pressure was on for Nike to work harder to lure more fans of the brand through its own sales channels. “As part of Nike’s focus on elevating consumers’ experiences through more direct, personal relationships, we have made the decision to complete our current pilot with Amazon Retail,” said a representative for Nike. Meanwhile, Nike continued to edit its wholesale network. In 2020, Nike cut relationships with multi-brand retailers including Belk, Dillard’s, Zappos, Boscov’s, Bob’s Stores, Fred Meyer, EbLens, VIM and City Blue, according to a report from Susquehanna’s Poser. It even cut its relationship with small family businesses like Frank’s Sport Shop in the Bronx, New York, which had carried Nike products for more than 50 years. “We continually evaluate our distribution approach based on our strategy,” said a representative for Nike. “As part of this evaluation, from time to time, Nike chooses to conclude distribution with certain retailers.” Meanwhile, the company expanded its business in recent years with the “digital high street,” including European apparel e-tailer Zalando, and Alibaba’s Tmall. “We’ll continue on our path to differentiated retail — to fewer, better partners, who work with us in a more connected experience,” said O’Neill, “so that the consumer can be recognised as a Nike member, throughout all of their shopping journeys.” Nike merchandise on display at a Foot Locker store. Getty Images. businessoffashion.com 139 8 The Strategy 02 — Pivot to Direct E-Commerce As Nike cuts back on wholesale, its investments in direct e-commerce allow the company to drive reach in a way that does not dilute, but instead boosts its brand. Nike Air Force 1s on their direct e-commerce channel. Nike.com. Meanwhile, Nike invested in technology and distribution upgrades to support growth in its direct e-commerce business. In 2018, Nike acquired American customer data analytics company Zodiac, which uses predictive tools to forecast the lifetime value of a customer and increase revenue with personalised marketing and recommendations. The following year, it also acquired retail predictive analytics and demand-sensing firm Celect, which helps predict consumer demand. “Nike invested in technology and distribution upgrades to support growth in its direct e-commerce business.” Nike’s tech investments escalated in fiscal 2019, when it invested over $1 billion in new data and analytics capabilities, expanding Nike’s suite of apps and digital-friendly store features. businessoffashion.com 140 Nike also opened new distribution centres to deal with the increased volume of product it was shipping directly to consumers. In fiscal 2018, it expanded seven of its distribution centres, including one in the US specifically dedicated to processing returns. Ahead of the 2020 holiday season, Nike also opened a new warehouse near Los Angeles to deal with additional e-commerce demand, which uses more than 600 robots to pick global products. Nike plans to generate 50 percent of sales from online channels, including retail partners, but it hasn’t yet indicated how much of its total business it aims to generate from its own channels. Poser, who estimated that Nike will seek to generate 30 percent of the online segment via its own channels, said it was unlikely the company would ever abandon key wholesale battlegrounds. “That’s how they gain share,” he said. “If they’re not hammering their competition there, they know they’re not going to sell a lot online anyway.” 9 The Strategy 03 — Content, Community, Customisation to Drive Brand Connection With a universe of digital content, community and customisation experiences, Nike keeps its customers close, creates powerful organic marketing that boosts engagement and customer lifetime value, and gleans data that can inform future products and experiences. A customisation station at Nike’s House of Innovation in New York (left). Members of the Nike Training Club community (right). Nike. Exhibit 4: A Universe of Apps to Keep Consumers Close Nike has developed a suite of apps that keep customers engaged with content and community features, while gathering consumer data to inform its strategy. Throughout the 2010s, Nike reallocated advertising dollars to digital. Though the brand had never been short on social-media friendly content, digital media allowed the company to go beyond traditional “push” messaging and forge tighter customer relationships, improve targeting and, ultimately, create a community it could analyse to inform its overall strategy. Nike Commerce Nike SNKRS For limited edition and collectable sneakers For training advice and shopping Nike’s constellation of mobile apps were key to this element of the strategy, as was its membership programme, which, like an AppleID or Amazon Prime account, tracked customer behaviour and allowed the brand to see how its customers interact with its products, stores and content. Nike Membership Nike Run Club For running training businessoffashion.com To support its pivot to direct channels, Nike sought to track and engage with consumers more closely than it ever could when its partners controlled the relationship with shoppers at point of sale. Nike Training Club Nike’s apps have evolved and served different functions since they first launched a decade ago. Nike set up a “Digital Sport” division in 2010 dedicated to creating wearable tech products and the software that would support them. The Nike+ FuelBand launched in 2012, and tracked a user’s activities, steps and other fitness related goals and synced them with the apps and a users’ Nike account. For workouts 141 10 The Strategy Exhibit 5: Bridging the Tech Gap Over the last four years, Nike has acquired technology start-ups with expertise in various fields, from content creation to data analysis. August 2016 Virgin Mega An American digital design studio that develops mobile technology March 2018 Zodiac An American customer data analytics company April 2018 Invertex An Israeli 3D technology firm that scans and measures shoe sizes August 2019 Celect An AI retail predictive analytics and demand-sensing firm October 2019 Trace Me An American content app start-up for “superfans” Despite initial interest in the product and its updates, Nike felt it couldn’t compete with the likes of Apple and Google in technology hardware and discontinued most of its wearables in 2014, favouring a strategy rooted in integrating with products like the iPhone and, later, the Apple Watch. The software, however, remained, and would continue to gain importance within the company, as Nike recognised that more of its customers were spending more time online and specifically on their phones. Nike’s membership programme actually predated the iPhone era, launching in 2006 in a collaboration with the Apple iPod that tracked running workouts through a small transmitter embedded in Nike shoes. Three years later, Nike introduced its first ever iPhone app, dedicated to providing training workouts for women, and was followed up shortly with the first running app, which tracked the user’s steps through GPS instead of wearable tech. Over the next five years, before Nike cut the wearable tech category, the brand rolled out a series of different software for different devices, designed to sync with different workout machines and regimes. The apps gained their own followings, offering workouts from Nike trainers as well as running tips and tracking. But the apps were fragmented in their approach. “Nike had some really strong consumer apps and stores, but we didn’t build out a connected consumer experience,” said O’Neill, describing much of her work around “breaking down the walls” between retail, digital product and engineering teams. “We weren’t offering members personalised journeys through those experiences.” Then, in 2016, Nike began to connect the dots, re-releasing most of its apps to reinforce the underlying membership, with the Nike commerce app (for training advice and to showcase and shop products), the Nike Training Club (with more workouts for men and women) and the Nike Run Club. Membership grew from around over 100 million at the end of 2017 to 185 million by the end of 2019. The apps also play an increasingly central role in Nike’s retail strategy. With Run Club and Training Club focused on fitness tools and instruction, the Nike commerce app became a tool for enhancing Nike’s physical retail strategy, which has expanded with new retail concepts since 2018. After surveying more than 500 consumers, the brand rolled out new features on the app that allowed customers to scan products in a store to summon the item from salespeople, as businessoffashion.com 142 well as check stock information. Shoppers could also reserve products before entering a store, get access to special discounts and pay for their in-store purchase in the app. Nike’s SNKRS app is another key consumer relationship builder, one that has grown into a $1 billion annual revenue channel. Originally developed in 2015 and then later expanded to focus on selling its limited edition and most collectable sneakers, Nike opened the app to 22 new countries in 2017, in addition to the US, as the app’s popularity skyrocketed. It grew from generating $70 million in revenue in fiscal 2016 to over $750 million in fiscal 2019. “Someone may only buy footwear and apparel a few times a year, but engaging with us each week [through the Nike Training App]... brings Nike into their lives.” — John Donahoe Nike poured investment into the app, making it more resilient against bots that tried to game the release process to profit on the resale market, and introducing different features to “gamify” the sneakerhead shopping experience. Four years ago, Nike bought Virgin Mega, a start-up branded with Richard Branson’s Virgin that developed technology to incorporate games into mobile shopping, and quickly integrated it into SNKRS. Sneakerheads could “queue” for products digitally as part of Nike’s efforts to cut off shopping bots that snap up in-demand limited edition sneakers, such as collaborations with Virgil Abloh or Travis Scott, in large quantities to resell for high markups. SNKRS had offline potential, too. In 2017, for example, the release of limited edition PSNY x Air Jordan 12s shoes drew shoppers to Washington Square Park on a summer’s afternoon, in a kind of scavenger hunt for the geo-tagged location where they would be able to unlock the option to purchase the shoes. These investments have paid off. The SNKRS app has “acquired more new members than any other digital channel for Nike,” Parker told investors in 2019. When the pandemic hit in 2020, all of Nike’s apps suddenly took on more importance as shoppers were stuck at home and looking for streamable 11 The Strategy workouts. Many returned to the apps frequently, making them increasingly valuable organic marketing channels. “Someone may only buy footwear and apparel a few times a year, but engaging with us each week [through the Nike Training App], maybe even each day, brings Nike into their lives,” Donahoe told analysts in June. In March, Nike had made its Training Club app, previously $14.99 a month for full access, free to all users, which resulted in a surge in memberships. It became clear that Nike’s apps had become one of its most effective customer acquisition tools. Nike expanded the number of workouts available on the training app, totalling more than 150, including yoga and stretching. The strategy was especially important in China (where the app is integrated with WeChat ID and users can pay with Alipay and WeChat) and 13 markets in EMEA, where Nike’s app had only launched in November. Since the pandemic began, Nike’s apps have streamed over 375 million workouts, helping increase Nike’s membership by 50 million over the same period. The more members Nike amasses, the more data it collects on its customers and their preferences and habits. The more data it collects, the better the brand can design and deploy its products to shoppers. “Behaviour on the app is as important as what they tell us,” said O’Neill at the 2017 Code Commerce event. In an interview with BoF, O’Neill cited people who run at night as an example. “With digital, we can serve underserved segments [where] there just might not have been that distribution channel,” she said. The brand recognised night runners among its members through the app and is designing more apparel with reflective fabrics. In recent years, Nike has also invested in product customisation experiences, which also tie consumers closer to the brand. In 2018, Nike acquired Invertex, an Israeli firm that uses 3D technology to, among other functions, scan and measure feet for shoe sizes. A year after that acquisition, the brand introduced the same scanning technology in its Nike app for footwear shoppers. It also later brought the scanning technology to its stores, where shoppers could be virtually measured for sports bras. And in April 2019, Nike relaunched its shoe customisation project, formerly known as NikeID and renamed Nike by You, with more design options and collaborations with designers like Heron Preston. The brand has continued to draw attention to the customisation feature with other micro-collaborations with athletes and influencers. In order to support customisation with faster speed-to-market, Nike has built “express lanes” of products in recent years, by storing materials at factories. The strategy cut down production from months to weeks on some products, and grew to represent 10 percent of all revenue in the third quarter of 2019, with a focus on custom shoe designs as well as limitededition collections. Nike Run Club, Nike Training Club and Nike SNKRS. Nike. businessoffashion.com 143 12 The Strategy 04 – Stores as Brand Theatre Nike’s stores are becoming stages for brand experience where the company can deepen connections with consumers, remind shoppers how its products are different and underscore why its logo has cultural meaning, regardless of where they ultimately make their purchase. The digitally-enabled “Center Court” at Nike’s House of Innovation in Shanghai. Nike. Exhibit 6: Rethinking the Physical Store Network Nike did not rely on opening more stores to grow direct sales. Instead, the company trimmed back its retail network but invested in experiential flagships. International US 660 713 729 705 695 585 Building brand connections wasn’t just about digital activations. A new approach to physical retail was a critical part of Nike’s strategy. When O’Neill was named president of Nike’s new direct-to-consumer division in 2016, one of the top priorities was rethinking the ways that Nike’s different segments worked together. The following year, as part of a reorganisation that saw the brand cut 2 percent of its workforce, Nike’s digital product team merged with its retail commercial one, meaning O’Neill began working much more closely with Adam Sussman, then chief digital officer, breaking down walls between their groups. “I see the role of the store as an extension of the mobile experience,” O’Neill said in an interview with Fortune in 2019. 218 230 243 251 246 240 FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2018 FY 2019 FY 2020 Source: Nike That strategy came to life in a series of new retail “House of Innovation” flagships that first opened in Shanghai in October 2018. The multi-level store was a kind of theme park for the Nike brand, and the kind of place where shoppers could come and spend the day, participating in different workshops and events or customising shoes and shopping with personal stylists. Many elements of these new large-format store concepts were digitally enabled and designed to be supported by the app, which shoppers could use to scan businessoffashion.com 144 13 The Strategy and pay for products and participate in special events or offerings. The brand also set up members-only floors, where sales associates offer personal styling and fitness advice. The brand followed the Shanghai opening with similar new locations in New York and Paris. The format was a model for the future, and the brand saw that shoppers who visited the locations spent 30 percent more than the average Nike customer with the brand over the following months. Meanwhile, the brand developed another large-format store design it called “Nike Rise,” which opened in Guangzhou, China in July 2020 with a focus on running, basketball and football. “It’s about making the experience, physically or digitally, [a] richer, more dimensionalised experience for consumers.” — Mark Parker Nike is also investing in a network of smaller-format stores designed to cater to a specific area. “Nike Live” first opened in Melrose, Los Angles in 2019 and tapped users’ data to inform the kind of inventory stocked in the store which, in the Melrose location, meant more running gear and brighter colours and patterns. And “Nike Unite,” another locally targeted small-store format focused on sports and community, has rolled out in five locations in the US, UK and Korea, with plans for additional locations in the US and China. To support these investments, Nike acquired Boston-based artificial intelligence firm Celect in 2019. The company predicts browsing and buying patterns both online and in stores, in real time, and helps brands plan what products they need to have available in stores or distribution centres at any given time. “Ultimately, it’s about making the experience, physically or digitally, [a] richer, more dimensionalised experience for consumers,” Parker told investors in June 2019, explaining that the brand was experimenting and testing different formats. “We are seeing where we have those digital connections through like Nike app at retail, we’re seeing the engagement from consumers rise significantly. And the actual spend per consumer in those cases actually jumps up dramatically.” Of course, the coronavirus pandemic has hampered Nike’s brick-and-mortar retail strategy, as the brand was forced to close most stores globally for an average of eight weeks. But it also puts more focus on the types of stores it continues to invest in for the future. Covid-19 has raised the bar on store formats: because of safety concerns, shoppers need more compelling reasons to enter physical retail. “The way the consumer shops is changing,” said Poser. “And if they’re going to go to a retail store when the dust settles with all this, you better have a really good story to tell.” Exhibit 7: Nike’s Formula for its ‘Consumer Direct Offense’ The company’s multi-pronged DTC strategy goes beyond its sales channels. Nike’s Approach How It Works Recalibrate Wholesale Discontinue retailer relationships that don’t make extra efforts to make Nike’s brand more appealing to shoppers, and invest in those that do. Pivot to E-Commerce Expand direct e-commerce by developing data and analytics capabilities and mobile apps to drive reach. Content, Community, Customisation Nurture a community of consumers through unique experiences and content that attracts new fans and builds loyalty. Stores as Brand Theatre Upgrade the store as a branding exercise or hyper-localised boutique to deepen customer connections. businessoffashion.com 145 14 The Results DTC Scorecard Nike’s “Mission Control” wall in its House of Innovation in Paris. Nike. Exhibit 8: Direct Sales Double The company’s direct-to-consumer revenue has nearly doubled in five years. Nike revenue by category (2015-2020) Percent Global Brand Divisions DTC Wholesale Revenue (USD, M) $28,701 $30,507 $32,233 $34,485 $37,218 $35,568 0.40 0.24 0.23 0.26 0.11 0.08 23 26 28 30 32 35 76 74 72 70 68 65 FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2018 FY 2019 FY 2020 115 73 73 88 42 30 DTC 6,634 7,857 9,082 10,428 11,753 12,382 Wholesale 21,952 22,577 23,078 23,969 25,423 23,156 FY 2015 Revenue (USD, M) Global Brand Divisions Source: Nike businessoffashion.com 146 As Nike cut back on wholesale and invested in its own distribution channels and brand experiences over the last five years, direct sales have grown consistently, representing 35 percent of sales in fiscal 2020, up from 23 percent in 2015. Then came the coronavirus pandemic, which proved Nike’s investments had come just at the right time. “Sales through the Nike app grew by ‘triple digits’ and generated 30 percent of North America online sales.” Twenty-five million people signed up for the Nike membership in the fourth quarter ending May 31, 2020, up over 100 percent year-over-year, half driven by Nike’s running and training apps, which saw active new member growth exceed 200 percent in the quarter. During the same period, the Nike app was downloaded more than eight million times, three times more downloads than the previous year. And in the year ending May 31, the SNKRS app generated $1 billion in revenue for the first time. Nike brand’s e-commerce sales grew by 79 percent, with digital sales representing 30 percent of total revenue in the quarter, up 80 percent year-over-year. Directto-consumer brand sales grew 5 percent 15 The Results Exhibit 9: DTC Grows Globally The DTC strategy has paid off in all markets, with Asia Pacific and Latin America seeing the highest growth. Direct-to-consumer revenue by territory (2017-2020) Percentage share EMEA APAC & LATAM North America China 50 40 30 20 10 0 FY 2017 FY 2018 FY 2019 FY 2020 Source: Nike To be sure, the pandemic was an exceptionally difficult time for the company, which forced it to close stores across the world and disrupted some of its key investments, especially its marketing plans around the Tokyo Olympics. Nike Inc. saw sales decrease 38 percent in the quarter ending May 31, 2020, and inventory increase 31 percent in the same period. Meanwhile, Nike Inc.’s operating margin suffered, decreasing to 8.3 percent in fiscal 2020 from 12.2 percent the prior year. In June, Donahoe announced that Nike would enter a new phase in its transformation strategy, with the goal of generating half of all sales through e-commerce (both Nike and select partners), and would increase its investments in technology including “demand sensing, insight gathering [and] inventory management.” He said the brand would focus more energy on its membership programme, reaching nearly 250 million members as of September 2020, and also open more small-scale Nike stores to target specific communities, like women. Exhibit 10: Squeezed Margins Nike’s investments have resulted in a drop in profitability. Nike Inc operating margin (2017-2020) Percent 13.83 12.21 while wholesale revenue dropped by 9 percent year-over-year. Sales through the Nike app grew by “triple digits” and generated 30 percent of North America online sales. 12.20 8.33 Donahoe also announced an internal reorganisation that would shift from a focus on activity groups, like basketball and running, to a focus on consumer groups, with new departments around men, women and children. These changes will reportedly result in about 700 job cuts at Nike’s Oregon headquarters. “We believe this digital acceleration is more indicative of a strategic shift towards a new future marketplace, rather than being a reflection of temporary challenges to the mostly physical marketplace of the past,” Donahoe told analysts in June. FY 2017 FY 2018 FY 2019 FY 2020 Source: Yahoo Finance businessoffashion.com 147 16 Looking Ahead “We have so far [that] we could go, we’re [just] scratching the surface, but we’ve come a long way in terms of breaking down the walls and siloes in our teams,” said O’Neill, acknowledging the work that still lies ahead for Nike. “The first and most important pillar of our marketplace strategy is to continue to invest in both our tech infrastructure and our digital ecosystem.” Amid the pandemic, the brand signed on millions of new members, who started to engage with the brand’s new digital ecosystem for the first time. The pressure is now on the brand to bring those relationships down the purchasing funnel and turn them into commercial transactions. As shoppers continue to stay home, the apps will continue to play an outsized role in how shoppers meet and engage with Nike, but it’s also a market in which the brand faces new types of competition from other fitness content providers, from giants with cult followings of their own, like Peloton, to influencer trainers with popular YouTube followings. “How are we going to inspire [customers]?” asked O’Neill. “How are we going to encourage them to train and how are we going to hear them out? So that’s got to be a big focus for us.” O’Neill highlighted Nike’s renewed focus on better targeting the women’s category and apparel, as part of the athleisure movement, which Donahoe pegged as the company’s strategic priorities over the summer. The more Nike understands about consumers who are interested in those categories, through the data it collects about where, how and why they shop, the better it can convert them into shoppers. “We talk a lot about knowing to serve from a digital perspective,” said O’Neill. “But thinking about bringing that insight all the way up to innovation and product creation and what we can do there — our product teams are just psyched for the potential for better serving consumers from a data perspective.” Nike is in the process of renovating two of its New York City stores into new “Nike Live” stores focused on women and apparel. It’s part of an expansion of the small-store format that will see 10 to 15 new openings this fiscal year, and an additional 150 to 200 openings in the next several years. Here, a challenge for businessoffashion.com Nike will be nailing its retail mix during a time when shoppers are being more cautious about stepping into physical stores, behaviour that will likely linger in some form after pandemic-related health concerns have passed. Another challenge lies in Nike’s supply chain. When Nike announced its DTC strategy in 2017, “2X Speed,” or investments in “new capabilities and analytics to deliver personalised products in real time,” as Parker explained to investors that October, were key to the strategy. Two years earlier, Nike inked an ambitious partnership with Silicon Valley manufacturing company Flex to “nearshore” production of footwear closer to its largest market, the US, in Mexico. The goal was to accelerate deliveries through automation to allow the brand to be more responsive to product demand. It marked a new era for the brand, which for decades worked with the same group of footwear suppliers across China, including large-scale factories like Fengtai in Yunlin, Taiwan that dedicated all of their output to the market leader’s products. The priority was keeping costs as low as possible, though long lead-times were more of a liability for the brand. For decades, Nike mitigated the risk of betting on the wrong product by sharing some of that risk with wholesale partners, who placed orders for products six months in advance through its “futures” model. But in a future where direct-to-consumer would represent most of Nike’s sales, the brand would need to build more flexibility and speed into its supply chain to more efficiently adapt to consumer trends and preferences, which were evolving at a faster and faster rate. Yet only a few months after the 2017 investor presentation, Nike shut down the project and disbanded the partnership, with millions reportedly lost by both Flex and Nike. It was reported the project failed to make sense for Nike on a cost basis. Competitor Adidas faced similar challenges when it invested in its first automated factories in Ansbach, Germany and Atlanta, Georgia in 2015. The location made the facilities and labour still too expensive to be worth the savings on 148 shipping and shorter production times from the brand’s perspective. For Nike, the question remains how the company plans to double its directto-consumer revenue without making substantial changes in its supply chain. Leadership in that area has also transitioned under Donahoe: the executive who oversaw supply chain projects in recent years, longtime chief operating officer Eric Sprunk, was one of the senior leaders who left the company in February. “Can you double the business, can you get where they want to go on the same supply base in Asia? The answer is, no, you can’t,” said John Thorbeck, chairman of supply chain analytics firm Chainge Capital LLC. “The company is not very productive from an inventory standpoint, and nowhere near best in class.” Nike has recently been focused more on expanding its RFID technology, or “radio-frequency identification” smart tags, to its products for greater visibility of its inventory in different sales channels and locations. This technology would allow Nike to reallocate inventory across channels, from online to a partner retailer, depending on need and, using predictive technology acquired last year with Boston firm Celect, ahead of demand. But Nike has a growing margins problem, made worse by the pandemic. Gross margins decreased by 90 basis points in the quarter ending August 31, 2020, executives said, as the brand dealt with holding and selling excess inventory and discounting. Even before the pandemic, Nike’s margins were lower than its shareholders hoped, as the investments of the last several years are yet to pay off on the bottom line. The company should look to Apple’s “asset-light” manufacturing as a model, Thorbeck said, cautioning that Nike still judges its supply chain primarily on cost, not on risk. The brand will need to expand the “Express Lanes” in its supply chain or find other ways to work with more flexibility with suppliers as it continues to transform from a giant of the analogue era into a leader in the post-pandemic digital age. 17 Further Reading • The Business of Fashion, The Radical Strategy That Drove Nike’s Pandemic Success • Highsnobiety, Community? Nike doesn’t care about your family-run store • The Financial Times, Online sales surge sends Nike shares to record high • Bloomberg, Nike Job Cuts Will Cost Up to $250 Million • The Financial Times, Nike ecommerce gains fail to make up for pandemic fallout • The Business of Fashion, How Are Sports Brands Marketing Without Sports? • The Business of Fashion, In Brands We Trust: Why Companies Are the New Communities • Bloomberg, Nike to Stop Selling Products on Amazon Site • The New York Times, Doping Scandal Includes a Direct Link to Nike’s C.E.O. • The Business of Fashion, Can Foot Locker Be Cool? • The Business of Fashion, Despite Setbacks, Nike Is Scoring with Direct-to-Consumer ‘Offense’ • The Business of Fashion, Why Brands Are Launching Secret Apps for Superfans • The New York Times, Nike Nearly Dropped Colin Kaepernick Before Embracing Him • The New York Times, At Nike, Revolt Led by Women Leads to Exodus of Male Executives • Bloomberg, Nike’s Failed Attempt to Challenge the Old-School Adidas Cool • Bloomberg, Nike Stocks Falls as Competition for Sportswear Intensifies • The Business of Fashion, How Adidas Converted the Cool Kids businessoffashion.com 149 18 Copyright © 2020, The Business of Fashion Ltd. All rights reserved All information contained herein is the sole property of The Business of Fashion Limited. The Business of Fashion Limited reserves all rights regarding the use of this information. Any unauthorised use, such as distributing, copying, modifying, or reprinting, is not permitted. Please contact professional@businessoffashion.com for more copies. Design by Lucinda Scholey Edited by Vikram Alexei Kansara and Hannah Crump Front cover image: Getty Images Discover our complete online courses and learning resources at: businessoffashion.com/education info@businessofashion.com businessoffashion.com 150 19 THIS COURSE PACK IS NON-REFUNDABLE MRKT 459 (Lamothe) Retail Management W22 ISBN: 9781459959699

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