WYDZIAŁ ENERGETYKI I PALIW
Energy System Analysis
PROJECT
Building your own Energy scenario using SAS approach
Autorzy: Mateusz Stefanek
Kraków, 09.06.2023
Spis treści
Energy scenario ....................................................................................................................................... 4
Energy use and production...................................................................................................................... 5
Energy consumption ............................................................................................................................ 5
Electricity production. ......................................................................................................................... 6
District heating .................................................................................................................................... 6
CO2 emissions. ......................................................................................................................................... 7
Flow-diagram of CO2 emissions. ......................................................................................................... 7
Energy import and export. ...................................................................................................................... 8
Excess Electricity Production ............................................................................................................... 8
Costs of the energy system...................................................................................................................... 9
Cost of the energy system ................................................................................................................... 9
Merit order and fuel prices. .............................................................................................................. 10
Security of supply and profitability of dispatchable power plants. ....................................................... 11
Reliability ........................................................................................................................................... 11
Profitability of dispatchable power plants. ....................................................................................... 12
Renewability. ......................................................................................................................................... 13
Implications of this scenario. ................................................................................................................. 14
Investments needed .......................................................................................................................... 14
Area needed for wind ........................................................................................................................ 14
Suggestions for improvement ............................................................................................................... 14
Possible inconsistencies..................................................................................................................... 14
Unused potential ............................................................................................................................... 14
Extreme assumptions ........................................................................................................................ 15
Green gas and areable land ............................................................................................................... 15
Appendix A: Slider settings .................................................................................................................... 15
Supply • Electricity • Coal plants ....................................................................................................... 15
Supply • Electricity • Gas plants ........................................................................................................ 15
Supply • Electricity • Oil plants ......................................................................................................... 15
Supply • Electricity • Nuclear plants ................................................................................................. 15
Supply • Electricity • Coal gas plants................................................................................................. 15
Supply • Renewable electricity • Wind turbines ............................................................................... 16
Supply • Renewable electricity • Solar power .................................................................................. 16
Supply • Renewable electricity • Hydroelectric power ..................................................................... 16
Supply • Renewable electricity • Biomass plants.............................................................................. 16
Supply • Renewable electricity • Waste power ................................................................................ 16
Supply • Renewable electricity • Hydrogen plants ........................................................................... 16
Supply • Renewable electricity • Geothermal .................................................................................. 16
Supply • District heating • Heat sources ........................................................................................... 16
Supply • District heating • Transport and distribution losses ........................................................... 16
Supply • District heating • (Seasonal) storage of heat ...................................................................... 16
Supply • Hydrogen • Hydrogen production ...................................................................................... 17
Supply • Hydrogen • Hydrogen transport ......................................................................................... 17
Supply • Hydrogen • CO2 emissions of imported hydrogen ............................................................. 17
Supply • Transport fuels • Road transport ........................................................................................ 17
Supply • Transport fuels • Rail transport .......................................................................................... 17
Supply • Transport fuels • Domestic navigation................................................................................ 17
Supply • Transport fuels • International aviation.............................................................................. 17
Supply • Biomass • (Green) gas in gas network ................................................................................ 17
Supply • Biomass • Green gas production ........................................................................................ 17
Supply • Biomass • Wood pellets in steel production....................................................................... 18
Supply • Biomass • Biocoal and bio-oil in energy plants .................................................................. 18
Supply • Biomass • Oil mix in demand sectors ................................................................................. 18
Supply • Fuel production • Future production of primary carriers ................................................... 18
Energiemix Polska .................................................................................................................................. 19
Greenhouse gas footprint of Poland ..................................................................................................... 20
1. Energy scenario
In my latest report, I will present Poland's energy scenario in 2050. In my opinion, the Polish
Energy System must undergo a change to become more environmentally friendly and reduce
greenhouse gas emissions. My main goal is to reduce the overall pollution of our planet by
reducing greenhouse gas emissions (mainly CO2). The main goal is to reduce the drawing of
energy from conventional sources to energy from renewable energy sources and nuclear
power plants.
My energy scenario envisages a minimum amount of energy drawn from conventional
sources. The main problem of renewable energy in Poland is the weather conditions and
difficulties in storing energy, which is why there must be nuclear and biomass power plants in
reserve, which are much more environmentally friendly than conventional power plants.
In conclusion, when drawing energy from renewable sources that depend on the weather,
we should invest in energy storage so that on days when there is too much energy
production we can store it for the future.
Electricity mix:
Picture 1
2. Energy use and production.
Energy consumption
The industry sector is the largest consumer of energy with 1.08 EJ of final demand (the energy which
is directly consumed by a sector).
Picture 2
When it comes to primary demand (final demand plus all transformation and distribution losses), the
energy use for the whole system looks like this:
Picture 3
When looking at primary demand, exported oil (products) can play a big role if refineries are still
producing at a significant rate.
Electricity production.
In your scenario, most electricity is produced by the Nuclear 3rd Gen power plant (299.92 PJ).
Picture 4
District heating
District heating in your scenario can be used to heat houses and buildings and provide heat to
agricultural sectors. The chart below shows the yearly balance of heat produced and consumed.
Picture 5
3. CO2 emissions.
In your scenario, a CO2 emission reduction of 68.6% has been realised. The chart below relates the
CO2 in 2050 to the 1990 reference value and emissions in 2019.
Picture 6
The reduction of 68.6% exceeds the Dutch national ambition for 2030 of 49%.
Flow-diagram of CO2 emissions.
The Sankey diagram below shows:
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which carriers are primarily responsible for CO2 emissions (left column);
where in the system CO2 is produced (centre column);
which part of the CO2 is captured and emitted (right column).
Picture 7
You can build carbon capture and storage (CCS) power plants in the supply section of the ETM to
reduce CO2 emissions of electricity generation.
4. Energy import and export.
Your scenario has 3.45 EJ of net energy import in the end-year.
Picture 8
Excess Electricity Production
You created a scenario where for 1122 hours in the year, (volatile and must-run) electricity production
exceeds demand. The histogram below shows what the frequency and distribution of durations of
excess events are.
Picture 9
Flexibility options such as batteries, power-to-heat and power-to-gas can be used to increase
electricity demand and use it for later (storage) or for heating (power-to-heat) or replace natural gas
(power-to-gas). In section Unused potential, more details on how to use flexible demand can be
found.
5. Costs of the energy system.
Cost of the energy system
Costs of the future energy system are roughly €87.96 and are broken down in the following chart.
Costs include.
 Investments.
 Fuel costs: using fuel prices set in the costs section.
 Operation and Maintenance: both variable and fixed.
 Weighted average costs of capital: assuming linear depreciation.
 Decommissioning costs: relevant for nuclear power plants only.
Costs do not include subsidies and taxes.
Picture 10
Merit order and fuel prices.
The merit order ranks dispatchable power plants (those which you can switch on and off) according
to their marginal costs (the costs of producing an extra MWh of electricity). Wind, solar and must-run
plants have effectively zero marginal costs. The marginal costs and installed capacity of power
generation for your scenario is shown in the chart below.
Picture 11
Depending on the demand for electricity, the merit order determines which plants are running for
each hour of the year. The plants with lowest marginal costs will often (baseload generation) whereas
plants with higher marginal costs might only run in cases of peak demand.
Fuel prices determine to a large extend the marginal costs of power plants. Increasing the price of
coal and/or CO2 can, for instance, make gas fuelled power plants more competitive with coal fired
power plants.
6. Security of supply and profitability of dispatchable power plants.
Reliability
The loss of load expectation (LOLE) is the expected number of hours per year that the electricity
supply cannot meet its demand. A nonzero LOLE does not necessarily result in blackouts as electricity
can be imported or can be available in batteries. The Netherlands accepts a LOLE of 4 h/yr. We
distinguish (un)reliable electricity production as volatile electricity producers cannot be relied on at
all times.
In your scenario, there is 24.67 GW of reliable (dispatchable) electricity production. Resulting in 26
hours of loss of load.
Picture 12
Similar to LOLE, the number of blackout hours is a measure for the reliability of the electricity supply
in your scenario. It also takes into account the possibility for import and flexibility to prevent a
shortage of power.
Your scenario has zero blackout hours.
Profitability of dispatchable power plants.
Security of (electricity) supply and the profitability of dispatchable power plants are intimately linked.
For dispatchable power plants to make money, they need to run sufficiently often, ideally when
electricity prices are high. A reliable electricity system traditionally requires, however, that there are
power plants available which are only needed for a couple of extreme demand peaks every year.
In your scenario, 86.1% of dispatchable power plants is not profitable. This means that they are not
earning back their investment costs (orange in table below) or are not even earning their OPEX
(operational expenditure) back (red).
Picture 13
Unprofitable plants will likely be taken out of commission after a while. You can improve their
profitability by increasing electricity demand (making them run more hours). Also reducing electricity
generation with zero marginal costs can make power plants profitable again.
7. Renewability.
The percentage of renewable energy in your scenario is 62.5%.
Picture 14
For electricity generation, the renewability is 83.6%.
Picture 15
8. Implications of this scenario.
Investments needed
Your scenario spans 31 years. The various assumptions imply that on average the following list of
technologies need to be installed every year:
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48.4 off-shore wind turbines
67 inland wind turbines
21.5 coastal wind turbines
0 electric vehicles
Area needed for wind
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Coastal area used by wind: 133.33 km²
Area used by off-shore wind: 750 km²
Area used by inland wind: 866.67 km²
9. Suggestions for improvement
Possible inconsistencies
Unused potential
In your scenario, there are 1,122 hours that electricity production by volatile and must-run producers
exceeds baseload demand. Some of this electricity is not used (curtailed). To usefully employ this
electricity you can:
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Store electricity: in the flexibility section, you can build batteries in homes or indicate how
much of electric car batteries can be used for storing electricity.
Convert electricity to gas: in the flexibility section, you can build power-to-gas plants to
convert electricity to hydrogen gas.
Convert electricity to heat: in the flexibility section, you can build power-to-heat plants
which generate heat from electricity and deliver the heat to either the residential or the
industrial heating network.
Increase interconnectivity: in the import/export section you can increase the capacity of the
interconnectors with neighbouring countries.
Increase demand: by electrifying for example heating/hot water production in houses or
transport.
Extreme assumptions
Depending on your choices, this section highlights some assumptions which imply big changes in the
energy system. This might help you to focus on which aspects of your scenario could use some extra
argumentation or research.
Green gas and areable land
Your scenario has 80% of greengas mixed into the gas network.
In your scenario, 86.1% of power plants is not profitable. This means that they are not earning back
their investment costs and sometimes not even their running costs. Such plants will not stay open
very long. Having them around in your future year might not be realistic. You can either
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Increase electricity demand: making the unprofitable plants run more hours could improve
their situation.
Reduce competing production: typically, wind and solar electricity generation has marginal
costs close to zero, 'pushing' conventional plants out of the merit order.
Close the plants: closing unprofitable plants might increase the realism of your scenario as
such plants are not expected to exist very long.
10.
Appendix A: Slider settings
This appendix lists all the sliders which have been moved from their default value.
Supply • Electricity • Coal plants
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Coal lignite: 7.54 GW → 0 W
Lignite plant for district heat (CHP): 9.7 GW → 0 W
Coal plant for district heat (CHP): 15.62 GW → 0 W
Supply • Electricity • Gas plants

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Large-scale gas plant for district heat (CHP): 1.76 GW → 0 W
Small-scale gas plant for district heat (CHP): 139.52 MW → 0 W
Supply • Electricity • Oil plants

Oil-fired: 1.16 MW → 0 W
Supply • Electricity • Nuclear plants
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Nuclear 3rd Gen: 0 W → 11 GW
Nuclear small modular reactor: 0 W → 2 GW
Supply • Electricity • Coal gas plants
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Energy production: 100% → 0%
Chemical feedstock: 0% → 100%
Supply • Renewable electricity • Wind turbines
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Onshore inland: 6.77 GW → 13 GW
Onshore coast: 0 W → 2 GW
Offshore: 0 W → 4.5 GW
Onshore inland with battery system: 0 W → 650 MW
Supply • Renewable electricity • Solar power
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Solar PV plants: 835.37 MW → 15 GW
Solar PV plants with battery system: 0 W → 3 GW
Supply • Renewable electricity • Hydroelectric power
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River: 0 W → 2 GW
Mountain: 973.51 MW → 4 GW
Supply • Renewable electricity • Biomass plants
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Biomass CHP: 1 GW → 3 GW
Biogas CHP: 133.53 MW → 1.2 GW
Supply • Renewable electricity • Waste power
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Waste incinerator: 0 W → 263 MW
Waste CHP: 164.07 MW → 1 GW
Supply • Renewable electricity • Hydrogen plants
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Hydrogen turbine: 0 W → 3 GW
Hydrogen plant (CCGT): 0 W → 1 GW
Supply • Renewable electricity • Geothermal
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Geothermal electric: 0 W → 5 GW
Supply • District heating • Heat sources
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Geothermal: 0 W → 7.5 GW
Solar thermal: 0 W → 10 GW
Collective water heat pump: 0 W → 3 GW
Gas heater (network gas): 324.09 MW → 0 W
Hydrogen heater: 0 W → 350 MW
Biomass heater: 150.64 MW → 500 MW
Waste heater: 14.51 MW → 350 MW
Supply • District heating • Transport and distribution losses
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Transport and distribution losses: 12% → 10%
Supply • District heating • (Seasonal) storage of heat
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Yearly losses: 30% → 22%
Coal heater: 614.88 MW → 0 W
Supply • Hydrogen • Hydrogen production

Solar PV plant for H2: 0 W → 2 GW
Supply • Hydrogen • Hydrogen transport
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H2 pipelines: 99% → 90.01%
Compressed H2 in trucks: 1% → 9.99%
Supply • Hydrogen • CO2 emissions of imported hydrogen
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Future import: 280.8 KG/MWH → 281 KG/MWH
Supply • Transport fuels • Road transport
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Diesel: 94.46% → 30.03%
Biodiesel: 5.54% → 69.97%
Gasoline: 96.03% → 20.02%
Bio-ethanol: 3.97% → 79.98%
LNG: 100% → 20%
Bio-LNG: 0% → 80%
Supply • Transport fuels • Rail transport
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Diesel: 100% → 14.99%
Biodiesel: 0% → 85.01%
Supply • Transport fuels • Domestic navigation
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Diesel: 100% → 15.09%
Biodiesel: 0% → 64.95%
Bio-LNG: 0% → 9.96%
Bio-ethanol: 0% → 10%
LNG: 78.82% → 25%
Bio-LNG: 21.18% → 75%
Supply • Transport fuels • International aviation
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Kerosene: 100% → 24.97%
Bio-kerosene: 0% → 75.03%
Supply • Biomass • (Green) gas in gas network
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Natural gas: 99.44% → 19.97%
Green gas: 0.56% → 80.03%
Natural gas: 100% → 80.03%
Regasified LNG: 0% → 19.97%
Supply • Biomass • Green gas production
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Anaerobic digestion: 100% → 0%
Dry biomass gasification: 0% → 50.03%
Wet biomass gasification (SCW): 0% → 49.97%
Supply • Biomass • Wood pellets in steel production

Wood pellets in cyclone furnace: 0% → 40%
Supply • Biomass • Biocoal and bio-oil in energy plants
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Gas from gas network: 48.85% → 50%
Bio-oil: 0.12% → 50%
Oil: 51.03% → 0%
Supply • Biomass • Oil mix in demand sectors
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Diesel: 10.29% → 9.24%
Diesel: 79.59% → 34.41%
Diesel: 35.28% → 1.85%
Diesel: 96.55% → 36.57%
Biodiesel: 0% → 60.19%
Biodiesel: 0% → 25%
Biodiesel: 0% → 59.99%
Kerosene: 0.01% → 0%
Kerosene: 0.05% → 0%
LPG: 20.15% → 3.45%
LPG: 9.29% → 0%
Other oil: 55.38% → 18.52%
Other bio oil: 0% → 1.04%
Other bio oil: 0.26% → 1.96%
Other bio oil: 0% → 54.63%
Supply • Fuel production • Future production of primary carriers

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Coal: 1.46 EJ → 0 J
Lignite: 398 PJ → 0 J
Uranium oxide: 0 J → 200 PJ
11.
Picture 16
Energiemix Polska
12.
Greenhouse gas footprint of Poland
Picture 17
13.
References
https://esmlab.agh.edu.pl/