CASEBOOK 2021 Acknowledgement We are thankful to all those who have contributed to the journey that has culminated in developing this comprehensive resource for preparation for Consulting. As enthusiasts of the eld, it has been an educational experience for us to put together this casebook and we hope it aids the preparation of future batches. We are deeply grateful for the continued support of our esteemed Director, Prof. Debashis Chatterjee. We would like to thank the alumni batches of Konsult – the Consulting Interest Group at IIM Kozhikode, for providing us with guidance and initiating the process of collating this casebook. We also wish to acknowledge members of the current batches at IIM Kozhikode as well as our alumni who contributed to the book by sharing their case experiences and helped us in capturing a realistic aspect of case interviews. We would also like to thank Himanshu Shekhar for overseeing the designing of the casebook. The process of developing this casebook was greatly facilitated by the constant support and encouragement of our faculty coordinator, Professor Nycil George, and the college administration. We thank our friends, alumni and batchmates for their rich feedback and reviews. Regards, Team Konsult – 2020-2022 fi © 2021, Konsult – Strategy & Consulting Interest Group, IIM Kozhikode. All rights reserved Pic Credit: Sanjay S. MEET THE TEAM DARPAN BAFNA | NAYANIKA KULSHRESHTHA | SARTHAK SHARMA NIKITA AGGARWAL | ASHWIN AMBALA | THANUSHA TAMARANA Table of Contents Serial Particulars Page No Page No 6 Frameworks 7 8 Telecom 49 Case Interviews 8 16 E-Cigarettes 51 17 E-Commerce 53 Market Entry 1 Budget Hotels 22 18 Food Delivery Service 54 2 HR Service Provider 24 19 Automobiles (New Business) 56 3 InsureGo 26 4 Jet Leasing (Cost Reduction) 27 20 Helicopter 58 5 Indian Handset Manufacturer 29 21 Vistara Airways 60 6 IT Service rm 31 Growth Pricing Unconventional 22 Vision for Swiggy 61 7 Medical Device Manufacturer 33 23 Employee Productivity at Public Sector Bank 62 9 Pharma - Diabetes Drug 37 24 Reverse Accumulation at Energy Sector 64 10 Cab Aggregator - Uber 38 25 Inadequate pro ts for Interest Payment 65 11 Printing Plates 40 26 Steel Manufacturer 67 12 Appliance Distributor 42 13 Fibre Manufacturer 45 27 Robotics 68 14 Air Conditioning Company 46 28 Cement Industry 69 15 Energy Sector 48 29 Airport 71 fi Indian Institute of Management, Kozhikode fi Particulars Introduction to the Book Pro tability fi Serial Due Diligence *For better experience use Microsoft Edge or any web browser Table of Contents Serial Particulars Page No Guesstimates Serial Particulars Page No 46 Telecom 103 30 Water Consumption in Kozhikode in a day 74 48 Technology 105 31 No. Of Pizzas Domino’s Sells per day 75 50 Media & Entertainment 107 32 Pizzas ordered in a day 76 33 Pro t by typical Teas stall in a day 77 34 Sanitary Napkin use over a month 78 35 Revenue PVR plaza of India makes in a day 80 36 CoVID Vaccines for frontline worker in Delhi 81 37 No. of deliveries by Swiggy in a day 82 38 No. Of AC’s sold in a year in India 83 Industry Analysis 39 Automotive 85 40 Aviation 87 44 Banking 89 41 E- Commerce 91 42 Energy 93 43 FMCG 95 45 Healthcare 97 47 Hospitality 99 49 Steel 101 fi Indian Institute of Management, Kozhikode *For better experience use Microsoft Edge or any web browser INTRODUCTION TO THE BOOK…… It gives us great pleasure in bringing to you the IIM Kozhikode Case Book 2021. The objectives of preparing and publishing this book are as follows: • Provide a detailed view of the various frameworks • Enable the students to capitalise on the interview experiences of the alumni with various rms. • Detailed review on Guesstimates and Case questions Some of the cases have detailed dialogue between the candidate and the interviewer. This has been done to provide a realistic transcript of an actual case interview experience. For some cases, we have listed the main areas to be explored. As you can guess, due to varying levels of interest and recollection, the case solutions have different depth. We have also provided in-depth industry analyses for a thorough and concise review of the major trends across different industries as well as for aiding in understanding the fundamentals of how organisations in these industries typically operate. Case practice is an essential tool for cracking Consulting recruitment processes. Additionally, it also helps in the development of structured thinking tools that aid in the general practice of Consulting as well as other management domains. Few tips before you start preparing for consulting interview: - Practice to absorb and not to memorise: It is very important to practice and one cannot undermine the learning it brings but refrain from nding ‘the best answer for any type of problem’. Focus on sharpening your approach than the answer because as you all might know – a thousand roads can lead to the same goal. - Work in non-homogeneous groups: This is the best way to maximise your learning from the diverse experience everyone offers. Challenge yourself to work with people you haven’t before; don’t spread your preparation time with a homogenous group because you might end up risking the width and depth that a non- homogenous group can offer. - Maintain individuality: Companies come to hire ‘individuals’ because they offer perspective that is not shared by everyone alike. Hence, it is important to focus on how you as an individual t best into a particular role, in a particular culture, rather than following a group and get into a role that is not for you. There are no right answers as far as cases are concerned. It is very much possible that you might think of different, more comprehensive or even better ways of solving the cases that we were asked. Another point we want to convey is about the solutions given for the cases listed. 6 fi fi fi Indian Institute of Management, Kozhikode FRAMEWORKS CASE INTERVIEWS GUESSTIMATES INDUSTRY ANALYSIS Indian Institute of Management, Kozhikode 7 Solving a Case 03 S O LV I N G A C A S E TYPICALLY HAS THE FOLLOWING FOUR STEPS Understand the company and its business. You should be able to create a mental image of the company & its business, & gure out where it is operating. What does the company do? • Analyze EVERY WORD of the problem statement and ask clarifying questions w.r.t. that. • Understand what caused the problem and what has been the impact. • Keep the 3Cs (Customer, Company and Competition) and 2Ps (product and price) in mind at all times when solving a case. Whenever you’re stuck, revisit these. Think along basic cuts like: A. Internal vs. external . B. Short term vs. Long term . C. Current state vs. desired state (desired state can be understood through objectives/ goals/motivations of the management). fi fi fi fi Indian Institute of Management, Kozhikode fi • Develop a hypothesis for where the problem might lie. Then ask questions and collect more information to prove/ disprove it. • Make it a collaborative process. Do not treat it like an interview. It’s not meant to be that. Treat it like a real project and that you’re working with a colleague on the project. • Ask for numerical data at every level of structure before going deeper. This is required until you gure out whether it’s a numerical problem or not. • Speak with conviction and bring creativity into your solution. • In case of numbers, take your time. Do not sacri ce accuracy for speed. De ning & Scoping the Problem 01 02 Analysis Segmentation & Structuring Segmentation is one of the most crucial and often overlooked steps. Always break the problem by company segments before applying any standard framework. Understand which part of the business the problem lies in. For example think along the below segments: A. Customer segments B. Product segments C. Geographic segments D. Segments in terms of different parts of the value chain E. Different channels of distribution At this point, you should’ve a pretty good hold of de ning what the actual problem is. It helps to paraphrase or summarise the problem statement more tangibly at this point. Structuring is done as follows: 1. Build out a quick approach of what the key issues are that we need to tackle, and what is the sequence you intend to follow : 2. Communicate this approach to the interviewer. 3. Then build out a MECE structure . 04 Synthesis/Summary It is effectively an answer to the client’s problem. Make your recommendation and provide 2-3 strong supporting reasons for it. Follow it up with considerations / risks that may be involved with the strategy. Overall synthesis should not exceed a minute ideally. 8 Case Frameworks Pro t or Pro tability Pro t or Pro tability cases operate on the basic framework where Pro t is taken as the difference between Revenue and Costs, while Pro tability is de ned as the Pro t per unit Revenue. A decline in Revenues/Pro ts/Pro tability often forms the basis of the most common cases given in case interviews Market Entry For Market entry cases, there are two main questions to address- 1. Should we enter this market? And if yes, 2. How should we enter? While the below framework determines the market attractiveness for Question 1 in terms of an economic analysis, the entry agenda can also be contingent to several other factors that may involve other factors. CAS FRAMEWORKS Frameworks can act as useful tools to structure thoughts during a case interview. Moreover, they ensure that you ask the right questions and help you reach the answer fast. By using frameworks, you will seldom miss solutions to ‘standardised’ cases such as Pro tability, Market entry etc. Growth Strategy Growth Strategy cases require brainstorming in order to expand the scope of a company/client, keeping in mind their speci c objective. This can be long-term/ short-term growth, increasing pro ts or market share etc. This growth can be achieved via organic or inorganic methods Due Diligence DD is an extensive process undertaken by an acquiring rm in order to thoroughly and completely assess the target company's business, assets, capabilities, and nancial performance. There are several aspects that are analysed for an actual Due Diligence analysis Guesstimate Guesstimates are quantitative in nature where an estimate for a gure is to be arrived at using logical thinking to formulate reasonable assumptions, and ef cient calculations to arrive at the solution in a time bound manner. A sanity check at each step is vital 9 fi fi fi fi fi fi fi fi fi fi fi fi fi fi E fi fi fi Indian Institute of Management, Kozhikode PROFIT Basic Pro t / Pro tability Framework Premise This problem is very vast and can come in various dimensions. It’s very important to scope the problem in the beginning itself – so that you do not solve the wrong problem. Pro t De nition Please help me understand what exactly do you mean when you say that pro t is down? • The aggregate pro t or pro t margin? • {If interviewer says pro t margin or Pro tability} • Ask: Is it gross margin/operating margin or net margin which is facing the decline? • Product Mix: is the decline in pro tability in all the products or speci c products in the mix? Revenues Volume X Costs Prices Variable + Fixed Comparison /Trend • Since when has this trend in low pro ts been visible and by how much? • How has the industry performance been over this time frame? – benchmarking. • Anything particular which changed - did you launch some product/slash prices/ competitor did something/ macroeconomic aspect? De ne Success • Say that this is a broad based question- How would the client de ne success? • What kind of increase in pro t do you want to achieve- what will be ideal? First Principle: The major components of Pro t/Pro tability are as followsPro t = Revenue – Cost Pro tability = (Revenue – Cost)/Revenue Say: There are two drivers – Revenue and Cost. Which one would you want me to start off rst? fi fi fi fi fi fi fi fi fi fi fi fi fi fi fi fi fi fi fi fi COST • Ask what % of unit cost is Variable vs. Fixed – this would help you understand some key trends • In a high xed cost business there is very high temptation of price wars • Remember it can be a product speci c problem or a product mix problem something such as that we are selling more of higher cost product. 10 Indian Institute of Management, Kozhikode fi fi Case Frameworks - Profit / Profitability Case Frameworks - Profit : Value Chain Analysis A pertinent method to track down costs across the operations is to do a Value Chain Analysis: Raw Material R&D Inbound Logistic Warehousing Manufacturing Outbound Logistic Distribution After-Sales Basic Value Chain Framework Utilising the Value Chain Framework : • Explore each head one by one • What is the percentage split of costs across these different processes? • In case one particular head has highest % say 50% or more than you can ask the interviewer that you would want to look at this head to start with. • Many a times there might not be one major head and there could be two heads with 30%-30% split. In these cases, you’ll need to explore both heads and also see that the pro tability decline could be partly because of one and partly because of another • Broadly at any point there are two issues • Price at which you operate or you get (vis a vis Competition) • Your ef ciency (Any wastage due to ef ciency problem in terms of people/process/technology) Basic Value Chain Framework Raw Material Cost • Start by asking type of good (Perishable/durable)? • Where does Competitor source from – does it get better prices? • If says same price, ask about ef ciency – conversion ratio/wastage/ef ciency for then? • If the problem is higher price or higher overall procurement cost then? Resolutions: - Better Negotiation/Bulk Order - Time of Sourcing (Opportunistic) – order when cheap - Currency Hedging – Use forwards/futures if prices are expected to rise. Also use call or put options for the variable part of future demand. - Substitution (Different Raw Material) - Value engineering (Use lesser Raw Material) fi fi fi fi of same type of good - Same supplier - bulk order/syndicated demand? - Cheaper material - indigenisation/rationalisation? - Cheaper supplier – From alternative geographies like China? 11 Indian Institute of Management, Kozhikode fi - Standardisation of Parts Backward Integration – ordering more Case Frameworks - Profit : Value Chain Analysis Inbound Logistics • • • • Do you and your competitor use the same Mode of Transportation? Do you incur the same rates and same overall cost? Explore Distance Travelled – could be that the rates are same but your factory is further away from the supplier base. Are you ordering at the Economic Order Quantity (EOQ) – Trade off between Set up cost, holding cost and expected demand Warehousing & Manufacturing • • • • Explore Labor cost and ef ciency vis-a-vis competitor. Inventory Cost (EOQ) Overheads such as Electricity/Rent-same or higher? Machine Utilisation: - % Downtime - High? - Machine broken? Maintenance/spare cost? Power outage? - Labor unavailability? - Total availability will be a function of % of time labor, % time machine available, % Idle time • Resolution – additional dimensions: - Outsource - Economies of Scale/Learning curve - Labor cost arbitrage Distribution/Outbound Logistics •Explore same as Inbound Logistics fi Indian Institute of Management, Kozhikode 12 Case Frameworks - Profit : Value Chain Analysis After-Sales • Installation • Service or Warranty cost ? Some noteworthy instances and thethe relevant details to to drill into: Some Noteworthy instances and relevant details drill into • Gross margin is same but Operating margin has reduced: - Marketing & Administration – SGNA - R&D cost - Restructuring cost - Licensing and regulatory costs • If NOPAT (Net Operating Pro t After Tax) is down - Depreciation & Amortisation - Interest Expense - Tax rates – which geographies (VAT) does our company operate in? - Inventory Write off - Gains/losses or external investments - Loss due to some catastrophic event fi Indian Institute of Management, Kozhikode 13 Case Frameworks - Profit: Revenue REVENUE As per the basic framework, revenue is the product of price times volume. Pro ts can be increased by increasing revenue, which in turn is increased by increasing the prices, or volumes, or both. Keep in mind: • Explore Price and Volume and ask the interviewer for preference to explore which one rst • Caution: Remember it could be that your Prices, total volume and total cost everything is same but the revenues are down because you are selling more of the less priced product – Product/Marketing Mix problem Ansoff Matrix - Product Market Expansion Revenue enhancement can be done by either increasing volumes, which can be done by capturing more share in the existing market, or volumes can be increased by exploring new markets. It is also essential to analyze the competition to understand newer opportunities that can be explored. Market Penetration (Acquiring New Customers in existing Market) A good place to start Framework to get an problem statement. It external and internal streams. NEWER MARKETS Prices can be increased by developing premium products, however it is essential to increase the Contribution Margin from sales of the product rather than just revenue. Using a better product mix can also contribute to better margins per unit sold. The adjacent Ansoff matrix displays several Product-market Expansion opportunities is to use the Business Situation all encompassing view of the is also essential to analyze the factors impacting the revenue Market Development (Reaching out to new Markets/Geographies to get more customers) Product Development (Enhancing product to charge premium & increase pro t Margin) Diversi cation (Extending Product line & exploring new markets to enhance sales) NEWER PRODUCT 14 fi fi fi fi Indian Institute of Management, Kozhikode Business Situation Framework - 3CP Revenue Segmentation A good place to start is to use the Business Situation Framework to get an all encompassing view of the problem statement. It is also essential to analyze the external and internal factors impacting the revenue streams. Business Situation Framework Customer Company Competition Product Pricing Strategy A company can use different of pricing strategies when selling a range of their products or services. Arriving at the most ef cient pricing strategy for the company depends on developing segment-wise strategies for all offering, identifying the company's pricing position, pricing segment, pricing capability and their competitive pricing reaction strategy. Segmentation according to different “cuts” or categories can also help in determining where the root cause of weak performance lies and make the solution more speci c and actionable. Useful revenue segmentation includes: By Product Type By Distribution Channel By Geography By Customer Type Using the above major buckets to nd the weak link in the interview, proceed to dive deeper in the speci c segment (discovered from the above segmentation cuts) and explore the opportunities to improve revenue in terms of increasing volumes and improving pricing position. Sales can also be enhances by speci c techniques like cross-selling, upselling, bundling, loss leader/captive pricing, improved promotion/ packaging, and enhancing customer awareness. Cost Based Pricing Pricing Strategy Cost based Pricing Competition Based Pricing Value Base Pricing fi fi fi fi fi fi fi It is the practice of setting prices based on the cost of the goods or services being sold. A pro t percentage or xed pro t gure is added to the cost of an item, which results in the price at which it will be sold. Competition Based Pricing It is a pricing strategy in which a company sets the price for its products after observing the competition. This strategy does not cover initial costs and only takes into account the selling price of the rivals' products Value Based Pricing It is a pricing strategy which sets prices primarily, but not exclusively, according to the perceived or estimated value of a product or service to the customer rather than according to the cost of the product or historical prices. 15 Indian Institute of Management, Kozhikode fi fi Case Frameworks - Profit/Profitability Case Frameworks - Market Entry For Market entry cases, there are two main questions to address- 1. Should we enter this market? And if yes, 2. How should we enter? While the below framework determines the market attractiveness for Question 1 in terms of an economic analysis, the entry agenda can also be contingent to several other factors that may involve factors like cultural attractiveness, technological opportunities, etc. These are also highly dependent of the timeframe of the entry. Using the previously discussed business situation framework should guide the perspectives of the different stakeholders while entering the new market. Basic Market Entry Framework Market Entry Market Attractiveness (Should we enter ?) Overall economic attractiveness can be determined by calculating the NPV, Payback period, IRR etc. of the project. Entry Feasibility (How to enter ?) Operational Feasibility Market Share Market size Calculate via a Guesstimate Volume Demand /Supply Decide per: Interviewer intimation/ Past entries in other markets/ Competitor entry in current market. Growth Prospects In terms of CAGR, market liberalisation, and the company’s timeline for the venture Value Chain analysis Degree of partner/own stake Strategic Mechanism Self-Startup Acquisition Joint Venture Pricing Estimates Indian Institute of Management, Kozhikode Build-OperateTransfer 16 Case Frameworks - Market Entry In order to determine several factors in considering entering the new market, proceed with the following line of questioning: • Ask if this ts the company’s mission/culture – main reason for entry: • Invest excess cash ow • Increase market share • Decline in existing market (shrinking sales, higher costs, lower margins) • Assess the rm’s resources and capabilities: • Economies of scope and scale • Ability to leverage current value chain components (infrastructure needed) • Capital, labor, and capacity constraints • Evaluate market conditions • • • • Size and growth rate of new target market Competitive pro le/trends and likely competitive responses Barriers to entry (and how to overcome them) Regulatory and legal considerations • Consider complements with current product/markets: • Potential issues of cannibalisation, and market cross-elasticities • Analyze cost - bene t of new market entry: • Niche vs. large market share • Consider methods of entry (e.g., JV, direct investment, exporting, acquisition) Market share estimate can be made by utilising the 4P framework. 4P’s of Marketing Product fi fl fi fi fi Indian Institute of Management, Kozhikode Price Promotion Place 17 Case Frameworks - Growth Strategy The below framework provides an outline to approach cases where the interviewee is asked to provide general growth strategy for the organisation. Given the broad nature of this ask, it is essential to clarify the interviewer’s growth objectives and practice effective segmentation to remove all options that are not of interest. Tools like the Multifactorial analysis Matrix and the Growth Share Matrix are used to segregate the different products/services/business units of the company in terms of their market share and market growth in order to identify focal points for developing the growth strategy. Growth Strategy Framework How to Grow? Organic Growth Expansion (Existing Revenue Streams) Diversi cation (New Revenue Stream) Inorganic Growth Invention/ Innovation M&A’s Joint Venture Increase Volumes fi Indian Institute of Management, Kozhikode Increase prices Strategic alliances 18 Due Diligence Guesstimates (DD) is an extensive process undertaken by an acquiring rm in order to thoroughly and completely assess the target company's business, assets, capabilities, and nancial performance. There are several aspects that are analysed for an actual Due Diligence analysis. For cases on Due Diligence, the following framework can be taken as a base: Guesstimate questions in interviews ask the candidate to estimate a number based on very limited information. Successfully answering these questions relies on a combination of mental math, logical thinking, problem-solving skills, and sound assumption-making. It is essential to note that the nal numeric answer is NOT important, it is the approach taken to arrive at it that matters. However, a sense check for the nal answer is necessary to corroborate the answer. Guesstimate problems can be solved through three methods (with certain other variations): 1.Top Down Method 2. Bottom Up Method 3. Employing a proxy A guesstimate can be asked in multiple ways, even while solving a normal pro tability case. Once you have completed the guesstimate then try to include the following to make your analysis much richer: 1. Veri cation of data – Identify a few sources from where you can get the right numbers to further re ne your estimate 2. Sensitivity Analysis – Conduct a basic sensitivity analysis and identify the most critical assumptions you made Due Diligence Market Analysis Competitive Benchmarking Technology Assessment Internal Analysis (Ops/Fin/Portfolio) Upside Opportunities Exit Options Typically. there are two ways any M&A can generate value – • Value of Control • Value of Synergy Synergy determination and risk analysis for a good t are very important and the following framework can be used: Cultural Operational Strategic Fit Synergy Bottom Up Method Market Size X 330 Mn population of USA X 4 Brushes / Person/ Year Financial Organisational fi fi fi fi fi fi 1 Brush/Person X Average price of 1 Toothbrush 1.3 Bn Population of India Demographic, Economic & regional % Splits X Smartphone Penetration by segment = No. Of Users Top Down Method 19 Indian Institute of Management, Kozhikode fi fi Case Frameworks - Due Diligence & Guesstimates FRAMEWORKS CASE INTERVIEWS GUESSTIMATES INDUSTRY ANALYSIS Indian Institute of Management, Kozhikode 20 INTRODUCTION TO CASE INTERVIEWS…… Introduction to Case Interviews: Case interviews are tools used to estimate an interviewee’s ability to apply logical thinking in a familiar or unfamiliar situation in order to arrive break down a problem statement to smaller, detailed components to asses the different possible solutions/sources of problem in the same, and their ability to present the ndings in a cohesive and structured fashion. For example, a case interview can be initiated with a simple statement such as: An international pharmaceutical company wants to enter the Indian Oncology market. Devise a strategy for them. Do’s for case interviews: • Active Listening: Focus on what the interviewer emphasises & build your strategy accordingly • Con dent communication: Speak with clarity & conviction to drive across points effectively • Neat paperwork: Keep an A4 sheet handy to draw out your structure in a presentable manner Don’ts for case interviews: • Reckless assumptions: Do not discard aspects based on wide assumptions & personal biases • Losing the forest for the trees: Always keep the big picture in mind even as you explore details • Being mechanical: Introduce an individual avour to you answer over the typical approach • Panicking: Maintain a smile and keep your cool even irrespective of how the case is going! fl fi fi Indian Institute of Management, Kozhikode 21 Profitability Budget Hotels Our client is in the budget hotel business but does not own any properties. The pro ts have been declining for the past few years. Figure out the cause and give a recommendation. Sure, sir. So, the key problem is that I need to focus on nding the issue with declining pro ts of our client which is into a budget hotel business. Is there any objective I need to keep in mind? No, please go ahead. I will start with some preliminary questions. How many hotels we have and is it spread out over all the properties? The number of hotels are irrelevant here but the problem is being faced by all our hotels. Is the problem being faced by our client only? Are the competitors located in that region also facing the similar issues? No, the problem is being faced by our client only. Alright, I think the classroom training is not as effective as on-the-job training and leading to the decline in number of customers coming at our hotels. I would like to do a costbene t analysis on the same. Good point. We can skip the cost-bene t analysis but can you please provide some suggestions to rectify it? I can think of the following steps: Provide on-the-job training to all the employees so as to enable them better understanding the needs of the customer and thereby assist them ef ciently. Set up a pricing system for the customers to avoid any confusion in the minds of reception manager and facilitates the smooth functioning of our client’s hotels. Thank you. These are reasonable recommendations. How much have the pro ts declined by? And for how long has the client been experiencing this decline? The decline is 25% and the issue is persistent for a year now. Understood, since the issue is regarding the pro tability, I would like to analyze the trend of cost and revenue streams of our client over the last year. Okay, the costs have grown at a steady rate but the revenues have declined at a higher rate. Noted, I would like to analyze the revenue side rst. The decline can happen because of two reasons: increase in price or decrease in number of customers arriving at our hotels. Can you also give me some information regarding the pricing structure of our client vis-avis with other competitors? The pricing structure is similar to competitors’ structure while our client has faced a decline in number of customers but an increase in competitors. Okay, now I would like to analyze the factors which can be responsible for such decline. There can be some internal factors like marketing, quality of our services, occupancy and pricing. Provided that these are budget hotels, there is not much differentiation regarding the price structure. Can you please help me with the mentioned buckets? The marketing and service quality is comparable to the client’s competitors. But the occupancy of the hotel also depends upon the discretion of the reception manager, who makes on the spot decisions about room pricing. Okay, so the prima facie, the issue seems to be that of the decisions made by the reception manager regarding the price of our hotels. And that leaves us with the issue with the way our client is training its staff. I want to understand the current training methods used by our client and its competitors. The competitors are holding on-the-job training for the staff and it has been observed that the client is following classroom training for its employees. 22 fi fi fi fi fi fi fi fi fi Indian Institute of Management, Kozhikode Profitability Budget Hotels Our client is in the budget hotel business but does not own any properties. The pro ts have been declining for the past few years. Figure out the cause and give a recommendation. Approach / Framework Pro t and Budget Hotels Revenues Costs No. of Customers Marketing Service Quality Prices Occupancy Training to Employees 23 fi fi Indian Institute of Management, Kozhikode Profitability HR Service Provider A back end HR service provider has a dip in pro tability. You have been approached to nd the problem and suggest changes. and not later. And data storage costs keep increasing as the volume of data stored cumulatively keeps increasing. As I understand, our client needs to determine the reason behind a dip in pro tability and want me to provide suggestions for the same. I need to start with some preliminary questions. What kind of activities are they involved in? Set-up Costs and Salaries are high initially and they drop over the life of the project. The revenue per employee is increasing due to in ation and data storage cost is increasing. Salaries is the major cost head – 70% of the project Large corporates outsource their back end HR activities like Attendance, Leaves, Reimbursements, etc. to such players. Recruitment and performance management is obviously not outsourced and is done internally Revenue and cost are connected. Lot of new projects getting launched and large old projects are in their nal stage is the problem. As the pro tability in a year is a weighted average of individual projects with their respective pro tability curves, the proportion of new projects with low pro tability is greater than the number of old projects with high pro tability leading to an overall drop in pro tability in the current year. Who are our typical clients? Banking, Financial Service players, consulting rms, etc. Are these services offered for the long term? Are there any other differentiated solutions that we offer? Yes, typically for 5-7 years and solutions are the same across clients. Alright. What do you mean by pro tability - Pro ts/sales or Pro ts? Pro tability is pro t/sales, for this case let’s consider it as pro ts. Yes, that’s correct. Can you provide some reasonable recommendations on the same? 1. Separate KPIs for new and old projects 2. The client should look for extending all the projects which are in the last year since pro tability is highest in the nal year of the project. And the extension would ensure high pro tability from the same project. Sounds good. That’s all about the case. Are we in losses or is it just a drop? What is the quantum? The pro tability has dropped from 28% to 22%. Is this drop in pro tability across all projects or in speci c verticals? It is measured as an aggregate. Are competitors facing a similar problem? There are few players in the industry and only we are facing this issue. What is the pricing mechanism? Price per employee basis @ INR 400 for a year and a yearly increase which matches the in ation rate. Okay. Given with this information, I would like to split the pro ts into Revenue and Cost. Revenue: #Clients X #Employee per Client X Revenue per Employee And Cost : Fixed Cost – Salaries, IT set up cost, Data storage cost, Maintenance cost, other indirect costs Variable cost – Processing cost There were no changes in the revenue side. Lots of projects were ending and new projects were starting but the total costs were going up. Salaries, IT set up costs and data storage cost are the major cost buckets; whether these costs have increased recently? What do you think how these costs behave in the project lifespan of 5-7 years? The salary goes down as productivity improves (due to learning curve) in such back end operations leading to lesser man power per project. Also set up costs are for the rst time 24 fi fi fi fi fi fi fi fi fi fi fl fi fi fi fi fi fi fi fi fi fi fi fi fi fi fl Indian Institute of Management, Kozhikode Profitability HR Service Provider A back end HR service provider has a dip in pro tability. You have been approached to nd the problem and suggest changes. Problem Approach / Framework Pro tability Revenues Projects New Project Costs Old Project Fixed Costs Low Pro tability High Pro tability More in numbers Less in numbers Variable costs Processing Costs Salaries IT Setup Cost Data Storage Cost Maintenance Cost 25 fi fi fi fi fi Indian Institute of Management, Kozhikode Profitability | Cost Reduction InsureGo Your client is InsureGo, an Insurance company primarily operating in the US Market. Their Annual Net income is $6 Billion which is 2% less than last year. They have all kinds of insurance within their portfolio. You need to analyse the reason for the decline. That looks good. Can you summarise your recommendations. Okay. Is the decline only in this year or has it been the case for previous years too? 2. The decline is since the last 5 years. 1. Offshoring can be considered as a possible alternative to reduce costs from the of ces in high-rent areas The company can make use of Automation to quickly perform some of the tasks which are repetitive Higher executives can manage more juniors and they can be transferred to teams where more decision-making is required Is there a similar trend being observed in the industry as well? 3. No, in fact, the trend in the industry is the opposite of what is being observed in case of our client. Thank you. All the best for further rounds. Okay, since there is a decline in income it could be a Revenue or a cost problem. I’ll rst start with the Revenue side. Is that okay? The Top line is improving. You can start looking at the Cost side to identify the problem We’ll divide the Costs into Fixed and Variable buckets. The Fixed Costs include Rent and other infrastructure-related costs. The major cost drives in case of Variable costs would include Human Capital, Insurance Pay-outs, marketing costs. Is there any particular aspect that you like me to explore? Approach / Framework Cost Reduction Are there any other xed costs that you would like to explore? I cannot think of any other xed costs at this moment. Okay. So, one of the issues here lies with the human resources part of the company. Can you think in that direction? So some of the possible avenues in this case can be their salaries, commissions (since it’s an insurance company), their working hours/ ef ciency. So I’ll present you a chart with this data and you can then give me your possible solutions. Excel sheet: 1. Data related to the working hours of employees and the number of employees managed by their superior 2. Rent costs for some of the teams (Finance, Marketing, Admin) and of ces So we can see that in Team A & B, the employee-supervisor ratio is extremely high i.e., there are too many supervisors per employee. We can reengage some of the higher-level employees to other teams and thus reduce the costs for these teams. Further, some of these of ces are based out of some of the densely populated cities which cost a lot in terms of rent. We can use offshoring as a possible situation for some of these cases which would help in reducing the Rent costs. Some of the teams like Sales and Marketing have a more on eld job and hence they would need to be near client locations but other teams like nance with majorly backend work can stay in offshore locations where the Rents costs are lower. Automation of some menial work can also be considered as a plausible solution. fi fi fi fi fi fi fi fi Infrastructure related costs Variable Costs Human Capital Insurance Pay-Outs Miscellaneous 26 Indian Institute of Management, Kozhikode fi Fixed Costs Profitability | Cost Reduction Cost Reduction - Jet Leasing Your client is a $10Bn manufacturing company whose pro ts are coming down. They are looking to run a cost program to reduce G&A expenses of $1Bn. There is an emergency request to gure out what to do with the corporate jet as the lease is expiring in a week. Recommend what the client should do. What is the jet being used for? - I will go for 8 seaters with a leasing cost of 1 Mn, bringing in the savings of 0.5 Mn Option 3 --- Commercial ights Consider the following data: It is being used for business purposes, going to customer meetings, site visits. Wanted to clarify about the expenses i.e., $1Bn amount. Yes. You can focus only on costs related to the jet. Sure. The costs can be divided into xed (lease, maintenance, salaries) and variable (fuel costs) Look at this stacked bar chart, what are your thoughts? I can infer the yearly cost of the jet ($2Mn) and its different components. Leasing costs are about 75% of the total cost. What should we do with the jet given the situation? We can look at the following options: • Let go of the jet: • Use alternative mode of travel • Use commercial ights (option 3) • Keep the jet Lessor: • Get a new lessor with better rates (Not possible, only lessor) • Renegotiate contract with existing lessor for longer duration (option 1) Jet related: • Consider use of jet for other purposes (No alternative use) • Capacity reduction-- get a new plane with smaller capacity (option 2) • Seasonality of visits, if any, so sublet it to other company (Not possible, will reduce exibility) Airports Trips Price A 100 1200 B 50 600 C 50 1400 Number of trips in an year * Number of people ying * Average price of the ticket Number of people ying every time assumed to be 5: 1.1 Mn cost, Savings of 0.9 Mn Which option would you recommend? Looking at the pros and cons, I would recommend option 2 for the following reasons: 1. Flexibility and convenience 2. Status symbol, what the jet means to employees (He was looking for this point. As the employees might have felt demotivated among other cost cutting measures that were being taken) That’ll be all. Thank you! Option 1 - Longer duration contract. Look at this exhibit, what are your thoughts on this? Looking at the durations and discounts available - 2 years @ 5%, 3 years @10%, 4 years @20%, I will select the maximum discount of 20% for 4 years. 20% discount on 1.5 Mn = 0.3 Mn Savings Option 2 --- Capacity reduction Interviewer: What data should you require for calculating # passengers travelling every time? 7+ passengers -- 20% , 4-6 passengers -- 60% , 1-3 passengers -- 20% Look at this data regarding costs and capacity and tell me which one would you choose. 4-seater has 0.5 Mn cost, 8-seater has 1 Mn, 12-seater has 1.5 Mn fi fl fi fl fl fl fi fl Indian Institute of Management, Kozhikode 27 Profitability | Cost Reduction Cost Reduction - Jet Leasing Your client is a $10Bn manufacturing company whose pro ts are coming down. They are looking to run a cost program to reduce G&A expenses of $1Bn. There is an emergency request to gure out what to do with the corporate jet as the lease is expiring in a week. Recommend what the client should do. Approach / Framework Cost Reduction Variable Costs Fixed Costs Lease Maintenance Employee Salary Fuel Costs Reduce Lessor Fee Jet related Lessor Long Duration Contract (1) Capacity Reduction (2) New Lessor Sublet Options Available Keep the Jet Let go off the jet Reduce Lessor Fee Commercial Flight (3) 28 fi fi Indian Institute of Management, Kozhikode Profitability Indian Handset Manufacturer An Indian mobile handset manufacturer facing decline in market share in the last 1 year. Find out the underlying reasons and recommend actions to turnaround the situation. I wanted a little more clarity on what exactly the client does? Who are our customers? The client product portfolio has all products from low-end to high end. So the customers also range from lower middle class to rich people. Okay. Can you tell me who are the major competitors and are they also facing the issue? And also is this industry wide problem? You are doing well so far. In short term, I recommend to increase retailer margins, employ communication channels, spend on TV and in store advertising and launch speci c schemes for the of ine medium to increase sales. Once the sales pick up, the client can reduce the discounts to make margins. Thank you. That’ll be all. Our major competitors are Chinese manufacturers and yes, they too are facing the issue. We cannot say its an industry wide problem as the premium segment players like Apple and Samsung are doing well. As revenue is decreasing, I wanted to know about pricing. Is it done correct or should I focus there? The pricing is done correct. But the client gives out huge discounts to stay competitive. Okay. Can you tell me about the sales channels and sales carried out through each channel respectively? So 70% of sales are done through Online channels and remaining 30% through of ine channels. Are the discounts for both channels same? And how do they differ across each SKU? Discounts through online channel are more than in of ine channel. Okay. How are the sales of different SKUs through these channels? Is there any pattern of sales? Majorly the sales of high-end products are done through of ine channels. As they are majorly done through of ine channels. I assume there aren’t deep discounts on these products. How are the sales? Yes, you are correct. The client has actually seen a dip in the sales of high-end products. Okay. Give me a moment to gather my thoughts. Summarise whatever you’ve gathered till now and provide recommendations if any for short term. Okay. I see two reasons why there can be a dip in the sales. 1. The competition in the high-end products is high from Apple and Samsung. And as they are not seeing any dip in their pro ts, its safe to assume they are making good sales and hence the dip. 2. The client sustained till now on his huge discounts. So customers might have also expected the same discounts in high-end category too. 29 fl fl fl fi fl fi fl Indian Institute of Management, Kozhikode Profitability Indian Handset Manufacturer An Indian mobile handset manufacturer facing decline in market share in the last 1 year. Find out the underlying reasons and recommend actions to turnaround the situation. Approach / Framework Decrease in Pro ts Revenues Price/Unit Costs #Units Sold Cost/Unit Online Sales Of ine sales Providing huge discounts Lesser discounts compared to online #Units Dip in High-End Product Sales fi fl Indian Institute of Management, Kozhikode 30 Profitability IT Service Firm An IT services rm has been losing its margins in the recent past. Identify the problem and provide recommendations. I guess 5% seems to be a required number for the incoming projects and is this the industry standard? What are the geographies the rm operates from? Yes. No. of billable employees is not the correct bucket. You need to think more. They have of ces in USA, Europe, India and Japan. Okay. I’d like to replace it with no. of projects and divide projects into billable and nonbillable employees. Is this okay? What is the split of the clients they have? 80% of the clients are from USA and 20% are from RoW. But 90% of the work is done from India Of ce. Yes. Now identify the non-billable employees. What are the services they offer? You’ve identi ed the problem. Now provide your recommendations. There are three broad categories: implementation, development and digital strategies. The client can hire SME on contract basis or getting SME billable by negotiating with the clients. They can hire SMEs that need to contact the clients less frequently based out of India to lower the costs. Also they can merge Senior Management and Client Relationship team. They can come up with a metric which would compare the revenue generated in a project v/s the number of senior management tagged to the project (using industry standards and their historical data) – for optimise allocation of senior management What is the revenue split between these categories and margins earned respectively? Development generates most revenue and Digital strategies generate more margins. But revenue from digital strategies is the least. What are the growth opportunities in digital strategies and the market outlook? The market outlook is really great. Just wanted to clarify whether you meant pro ts when you said the margins? There’ll be Subject matter experts, senior management and client relationship team rm is losing its Yes. Okay. As the problem lies with margins, we can look at the revenue and costs. The rm is making biggest margins from least revenue stream so I wanted to look at costs. Is that okay? Yes. Sounds good. Please go ahead. I’d like to list the following cost heads: Labour, Infrastructure and Software Licensing Which one amongst these costs do you think would be the highest contributor? As it is a services rm, labour costs will be the highest. What info do you require in labour costs? So the Labour costs will have two branches – no. of employees and cost per employee. Under Cost per employee, we’ll have xed salaries, variable component and overheads. I would like to start with no. of employees. You can focus only on this as the other arm is optimised. What are the percentages for the following questions: 1) Employees on bench 2) No. of billable employees 3) Working in admin 4) Working in internal functions The bench strength is 5%. You can ignore employees working in admin and internal functions. 31 fi fi fi fi fi fi fi fi fi fi Indian Institute of Management, Kozhikode Profitability IT Service Firm An IT services rm has been losing its margins in the recent past. Identify the problem and provide recommendations. Approach / Framework Reduction in Pro ts Costs Revenue Software Licensing Labour Infrastructure Cost/Employees #Employees % Working in Admin % on Bench % on Projects Non - Billable SME fi fi Indian Institute of Management, Kozhikode Senior Management % working in Internal Function Billable Customer Relationship Team 32 Growth Strategy Medical Device Manufacturer Client is Pharma medical device manufacturer. They manufacture one product that is in high demand and complex to make. Say capacity is 100 and it cannot be currently expanded. Till 2018, they were working in only India but later they started exporting. They want to know the optimal mix for domestic and foreign sale. Alright, so the case is about obtaining the optimal mix for domestic and foreign sale for a Pharma medical device manufacturer. I would like to start with some scoping questions. Sure, go ahead. Okay so what is the objective of the company? What do you think can be the objective? Considering that it has started exporting and it’s a supply side constraint, the objective should be to increase pro ts. You’re right. Let’s dive into that. I’d would like to look at the following three points: a. Domestic and export margins b. Competition in both these markets c. Regulations So that means the prices would be signi cantly higher in other markets. And the growth would be higher considering that the market is going to grow to 1.5x the size outside India. Yes, the prices are signi cantly higher and the growth is also higher in the other countries where we are not present yet. How do you think the client should plan their sales if we sell 40% in India and export 60% of our products? The client should target the markets which are poised to grow at a higher pace and have a higher price. As far as the mix is concerned, if there are no regulatory barriers, they should export all the products that they produce. Moving out of stagnant markets can be an option or the supply should be xed to maintain relationships and move better part of the sales to other countries. If there are regulatory concerns, the prices in India are signi cantly lower and considering the experience of the company in India, the prices should be increased in India. We can try to stay relevant here and try not losing the base country. Ok. That sounds good. Let’s focus on the margins, the Average Selling Price in India is $20 and the total cost is $10. While the average selling Price outside India is $30 while the total cost is $15. That sounds interesting. The percentage margins are same at both the places but the overall pro ts are higher abroad. However, considering that we are looking into demand, we need to look around multiple aspects. What is the stability of demand in India and abroad, what is the ripple effect if we stop supplying medicine to a customer on the relationships, who are our competitors and what is the average price in the market? So the demand in India is 300 and is expected to grow to 2x in the next 5 years. The average price in India of the 2 competitors ranges from $35-50. In overseas market, the demand is 3000 which is expected to grow to 1.5x in 5 Years. The average price in those markets is $60-70. That’s interesting, our price is signi cantly lower in both markets. Should I look into it? Yes, let’s go ahead with that. So for India, there can be different type of consumers served, places where they are sold, quality of the product leading to lower price or marketing related issues. For international markets, we need to analyze the markets where client is present. The client feels that the brand is not too strong to sell the product at higher prices in India. Hence it is a conscious decision to sell the product at a lower price in India. In the international markets, we are there in 14 countries where we have around 50% share but the market size is more or less stagnant and the prices are comparable to the competitors. fi fi fi fi fi fi fi Indian Institute of Management, Kozhikode 33 Growth Strategy Medical Device Manufacturer Client is Pharma medical device manufacturer. They manufacture one product that is in high demand and complex to make. Say capacity is 100 and it cannot be currently expanded. Till 2018, they were working in India only but later they started exporting. They want to know the optimal mix for domestic and foreign sale. Approach / Framework Optical Mix in Domestic & Foreign Market External Factors Internal Factors Marketing Service Quality Training to Employees Regulations Market Facts Domestic Low Margin High Growth Foreign High Margin Low Growth Indian Institute of Management, Kozhikode Fixed Demand 34 Market Entry Telecom The client is a Swedish telecom company with good investments in 5G, they are scoping to enter the Indian market. Should they do it? What is the competitive landscape for telecom in India? Makes sense. Please go ahead. Population*No. of phones per person -> Filter for smartphones -> Filter for 5G enabled phones -> Filter for SIMs per phone -> New users and existing users-> Within existing users, people who would switch to 5G within their own telecom operator or take 5G from another player-> People who would take 5G would either port out of the existing player or buy an additional sim. Assumed that new users wouldn’t generally directly go to 5G services so early on. Within existing users, the two large telecom players have strong brand loyalty as they give a lot of value-added services- such as Jio suite of services, Airtel Payments Bank and so on so forth, therefore it might be dif cult for the client to compete with them. I assumed, therefore for our client the target market would be people who would buy an additional SIM to get 5G services. My nal number came to 3.5 million. Thus applied a 20% lter (the player will enter into metro circles as 5G adoption in non-metro areas would be dif cult) bringing the number to 0.7 million. Two large players- Jio and Airtel with around 40% market share each and Vi with 20%. Do you think they would be able to get this number? The way I would like to approach this problem is to look at economic viability, opportunity and operational feasibility. In the economic viability, I’d like to see the investment opportunities and under operational feasibility, internal and external factors and market sizing under opportunity. TRAI regulations state that a new entrant can undercut existing players without the incumbents being allowed to retaliate as was seen in the case of Jio. Thus by right pricing strategy, they would be able to gain market share. Existing competitors might also be late adopters of 5G given that there is a signi cant CapEx involved and they are not very pro table and highly debt-laden right now. The new entrant will also be taking over only a small chunk of subscribers which would make incumbents unlikely to retaliate. Sounds like an interesting case. Do they want to enter for a speci c spectrum or they want to be there across 2G, 3G, 4G or 5G spectrums? They want to enter in the 5G market only. What is their objective in entering the market- is it market share, pro tability? The number of subscribers in their existing markets has stagnated. They want to get as many subscribers as they can, pro tability is not a concern at this stage, they will eventually become pro table. Do they have any timeline in mind? They want to enter by the mid of 2022. Have they entered any other market recently? No. Let’s start of with the market sizing that you mentioned. Great! There are two ways of going about it- demand and supply. Within demand we can look at the need for 5G among customers. In the supply side, we can look at how many phones will be 5G enabled and calculate the market opportunity for our client using that. Given that there is a strong supply constraint of 5G phone I believe that would be a more relevant approach. Let’s proceed with that. Given that they would only get a small fraction of the market, should they enter the market? The recommendation will be to enter the market. Even though they are getting only a fraction of the market, this fraction represents a huge delta of around 15% from their existing subscriber base and thus will help them tackle stagnating growth. Currently around 10% of phones in India are 5G enabled. I assume that the number would be 30% by the mid of 2022. How do you justify 30% Most of the smartphone players are global players who also exist in markets such as Europe high cost for geography speci c 5G and non 5G manufacturing of the same and North America which are already making a shift to 5G. Given that a lot of these variants sold by Apple and Samsung in India are same as those sold in Western countries, they will also be 5G enabled given that they are the same variants and manufacturers would incur a variant. 35 fi fi fi fi fi fi fi fi fi fi fi Indian Institute of Management, Kozhikode Market Entry Telecom The client is a Swedish telecom company with good investments in 5G, They are scoping to enter the Indian market. Should they do it? Approach / Framework New Market Entry Opportunity Feasibility Visibility Market Sizing Target Market share customer segment. PESTEL Analysis Regulations Strategic Barriers Investment Opportunities Human & Physical Resources Competitors share Major Players Strength & Weakness Value Chain Analysis Vertical & Horizontal Integration Timeframe Revenue Generation Product Existing USP Pricing Entry Strategy : JV/Acquistion/Merger Poll Entry Risks : Cannibalisation, Culture & socio factors Visions Goals Objectives Indian Institute of Management, Kozhikode 36 Growth Strategy Pharma (Diabetes Drug) Your Client is Pharma Company and wants to increase its India Top Line and we would also look at market sizing in between the case. Sure Sir, could you tell me a little more about the company, where it operates, what’s the product line. Its an MNC that operates across the globe and also has a robust India business, for the case we would be focused on the India market. We have drugs for two ailments: 1) Diabetes 2) Haemophilia Good, so could you also tell me the revenue share of both the drugs, so we can decide which one to focus on rst and also what kind of growth targets we have in mind. Great Question, 80% of our share comes from Diabetes market, and we don’t have growth target in mind; but our current focus in on increasing the Top line of the diabetes drug. Sure, let's focus on Diabetes could you tell me a little more about the disease and treatments methods, my understanding is limited to the fact that it’s an ailment of reduction in insulin levels. Rightly, so Diabetes is of two types Type 1 and Type 2 and it’s not curable, it’s a condition that has to be managed, the management usually involves two methods: 1) Pills 2) Insulin Injection. We produce insulin Right so our focus is on increasing the Revenues from the Diabetes Drug in the India Segment, as you wanted me to do a market sizing so should we start with it? Absolutely, I want an Equation from you in form of A X B X C, and feel free to ask me any numbers you would require. Sure. Equation: Population X %Age Target Age Group X Diagnosis Rate X Prescription Rate X Dosage Frequency X Price on Diagnosis Rate, This number would be impacted largely by the availability of health care facilities and as we know the Health care facilities in India has lower penetration in rural population, we can focus on that. The way to go forward would be through a partnership with govt, health care infrastructure and providing testing supports and running diabetes check-up camps. Absolutely Right, that’s something that can be looked into, ok move on to the next factor. Sure, next is the prescription rate, so as we discussed earlier that this can be managed though either pills or insulin, I would rst like to understand what mode is prescribed when there is a medical premise. Right, so as you know in India Injecting yourself is considered a stigma and hence pills are a preferred mode of treatment however scienti cally insulin injection is better mode of managing a disease. So this looks like an awareness issue. We have two stake holders: The Patients and Doctors For doctors we would have a direct channel though our sales persons and we should start a campaign to get doctors to switch from pills to insulin and also get them to make patients aware of the bene t of insulin injection vs pill. For Patients we should run awareness campaigns on both mass media and social media, we should also place info- materials at major clinics and centres that lists the bene ts of insulin vs pills. Great Points, you did great. All the best for further Rounds. Good, that’s almost perfect I will give the numbers why don’t you compute the market size. Population: 1.3 - %Age: 55% (20+) - Diagnosis Rate: 11% - Prescription Rate: 7% Dosage: .15 units per day per Kg weight, Average weight 70 Kg - Cost: 8 Rs Sure, give me a few minutes, 168 Bn Annually That’s about right, the market is around 170 Bn, and our client is a market leader with 60% share, we are essentially looking to grow the whole market, I would like you to look at the factors we used in the above exercise and tell me are there any levers we can work with. I would will like to evaluate each of the factors with the Following 3 categories 1. Can this factor be increased ? 2. If yes, then what are the drivers that in uence this number 3. What actions can be taken to favourably impact the drivers to increase the factor Sounds Good, Go ahead. Population and Age group can not be impacted by our actions, rstly we should focus 37 fi fi fi fi fl fi fi Indian Institute of Management, Kozhikode Growth Strategy Cab Aggregator (Uber) You are Operations head at Uber and want to beat your competitor (Ola) in terms of market share Can you throw some light at the current market scenario for Uber and our competitor Ola? So, the market has only two big players- Ola and Uber. Ola holds 60% of the market share and Uber holds 40% of the market share Are we talking about the market share in terms of dollar value or no. Of customers? We are talking about market share in terms of total no. Of trips Do we have any target geography or target timeline in mind for achieving our growth target? Yes, we want to achieve our target in 1 year and are particularly interested in Lucknow. Ok. Lastly, I would like to understand about what all services we offer currently in Lucknow? We only operate Uber cabs in the region. For this case we can ignore the share cab market Ok. For achieving the growth target, we can either do it organically through modifying our current business model (like introducing new services-Uber moto, Uber auto) or increasing penetration through current business model. We can also look at inorganic growth through a Joint Venture or acquiring any other rm. However, since we have 1 year target and are looking at increasing share by 10%, we should focus on exploring organic growth as JV or M&A can be a time taking process. Do you think this is fair? Yes, you are right. We can focus on organic growth through increasing penetration by current business model Sure! For that we can either focus on increasing number of customers or increasing trips/ customers Lets focus on increasing number of customers Interesting! I will like to further break this problem into four parts- Fleet Size, Area of operation, Request routing mechanism, Driver Response. Do we know how we fare against our competitor on these aspects Yes, so our eet size is small as compared to Ola. Also, we have seen this problem in particularly some speci c areas. The other two parameters are not an issue. How do you think we can increase our eet size? To solve for small eet size – Suggested 4 solutions and marked them in a 2X2 matrix of Effort and Time -> Purchase eet (high time, high effort), Acquire local transport agency (small time, medium effort), Incentivise individual drivers to come to Uber(high time, high effort), Scheme for people to rent out their vehicle to Uber when not in use(high time, high effort). That makes sense. Why don’t we focus on low hanging fruit, i.e. option 2. How do you think we can asses how many additional cars we might need to add to our eet to achieve our target? I think we should identify bottleneck area and bottleneck time to estimate max eet size we need to acquire. This bottleneck can be identi ed basis two metrics - % booking leading to “No Cab” status and % booking resulting in cancelation from customer because of large waiting time. After nding out bottleneck areas, we estimate footfall on the place-> Divide into Upper, middle and low income people (Low income people will opt for public transport, Upper middle and High income people will opt for Cabs). We get an estimate of max bookings that can be done. Since we need to capture at least 50% market share, we consider half of that demand and estimate # cabs that will be required and compare it with current no. of cabs in the region. That was very insightful. I think we can stop here and all the best for your next rounds. For increasing customers, I would like to look at customer journey for Uber and benchmark it against Ola to see where we are lacking. I will divide the customer journey into three parts – Pre Ride Experience (App usability, waiting time) -> During Ride Experience (Cab condition, Driver behaviour)-> Post Ride Experience (Complaint redressals). Do we have any data on where we stand against our competitor on these fronts? Yes, in general Uber customers have to face double the waiting time as compared to ola customers. Other parameters are not an issue as our app and customers services are top notch 38 fl fl fi fi fl fl fi fl fl fi Indian Institute of Management, Kozhikode Growth Strategy Cab Aggregator (Uber) You are Operations head at Uber and want to beat your competitor (Ola) in terms of market share. Increase Market Share Organic growth Inorganic Growth Current Business Model #Trips/Customer Pre - Ride Experience • App Usability • Waiting Time Fleet size • Purchase new fleet • Acquire loyal players • • Service areas New Business Model #Customers During Ride Experience • Cab Behaviour • Driver Behaviour Requesting routing algo Post - Ride Experience • Complaint • Redressal Driver response Incentivise individual drivers Scheme for individuals to rent their cars Indian Institute of Management, Kozhikode 39 Growth Strategy Printing Plates Your client is a manufacturer of plates of printing press which is a consumable in the industry and has annual turnover of Rs. 1500 cr. It’s a promoter driven company. It’s revenue is growing by 5%, Gross pro t by 5% and the PBT by 2%. Clients wants to grow the PBT at 10%. That’s interesting. The PBT is growing at a lower pace. This means that there is a problem in the admin, n and other expenditure of the company and rstly the analysis should be done around the inef ciencies and then around increasing the full gure to 10%. However, I would want to know about the geography of the business and also want to know about the printing plates So the geography is India and the printing plates are used mainly for commercial printing. One plate is made when minimum 100-200 copies are need to be made. Typically used by Newspapers and other commercial uses. The design is made on AutoCAD and the plate is made using the design So the margins in the ink industry is 5% and the client is considering to enter the same. Should they do that? The same should be compared to the current margins and also the growth should be looked into through the lens of ef ciency of production, distribution and pro tability that we would be able to generate. Normally 5% margin is low for companies especially in the chemical Industry and hence the company should be looking for an unrelated diversi cation, if possible, for a product where the margins can be higher. The growth would be better in that case. This is assuming that the 5% margin is low and there are better ways to achieve the growth. Okay. That should be it. Ok thanks a lot for the details. Do we have any information on the market share and the competitive landscape of the company? The client has a 80% share in the Newspaper market and 70% share in the other commercial Printing plates market. The rest of the market is served by cheap imports. The company is also in the chemical markets where it has a 50% share and the rest 50% market is fragmented. So is this chemical market related to the Printing industry? Do we have any scope of increasing the market share in any of these industries? Yes it’s a complementary product. And the market is saturated and there’s no scope for increasing market share in any of these industries So there are two ways to increase the pro ts. One is adding a high margin product from the same industry or a high margin product from a different industry. Do we have any information on the same? The newspaper industry has 40% expenditure of Paper/Pulp, around 30% expenditure of Inks, 20% in the plates and products that we sell and 10% is the other expenditure for them. Considering that we are in the chemicals market, ink would be some kind of chemical, a market we are present in, we can tap that market because we can sell the material to the same customer and hence the selling expenditure is low. However keeping the objective of the client in mind, we need to look into the margins of the product to identify if it is a good product to enter into 40 fi fi fi fi fi fi fi fi fi Indian Institute of Management, Kozhikode Growth Strategy Printing Plates Your client is a manufacturer of plates of printing press which is a consumable in the industry and has annual turnover of Rs. 1500 cr. It’s a promoter driven company. Its revenue is growing by 5%, Gross pro t by 5% and the PBT by 2%. Clients wants to grow the PBT at 10%. Approach / Framework Growth Target (PBT -10%) Inef ciencies Increase Pro ts Market Share Newspaper Market (80 %) Commercial Printing Plate Market (70%) Adding High Margin Product Same Industry Chemical Market (50%) Paper Ink Margin - 5% Different Industry Plates Others No Suf cient Yes 41 fi fi fi Indian Institute of Management, Kozhikode fi Done Growth Strategy Appliance Distributor Your client is a premium appliance distributor in India. The client wants to increase pro ts by $300mn in 3 years Wanted to get some clari cation around the objective of our client. Has our client been facing any decline in pro ts, stagnation or in general has a growth objective? Also, what is our current base of revenue and pro ts? The client is already a market leader and has been growing at a constant rate. The current revenue is $1,500mn and pro ts of $500mn. No problem on cost – already ef cient. Please focus on revenue Sure – revenue can be increased either through existing business or new business. Within existing business network, we can look at increasing penetration of existing product mix. Within new business, we can explore new products, new geographies, new channels and new customers. As for existing market, we can increase volume intake by retailers or increasing price subject to price elasticity. How can you increase volume? Understood. We are trying to increase pro ts by 60% over the current base and revenue by $900mn assuming the rate of pro tability. Do we have any supply constraints? Are we growing at the pace of the industry or slower and what is our market share? No constraints on supply. we do not have data on growth. How would you calculate that? Volume is a function of number of retailers*average ticket size*frequency in a year. Push strategy needs to be employed. More incentives need to be provided by tweaking one or more of the following – type, level or speci city. Better inventory management as well as access to working capital can also be looked into. There could be three broad ways of computing growth by looking at the following, of course making some assumptions on similar inventory levels: 1. Sales data of premium appliances to customers tracked by retailers 2. Sales of competitors 3. Sales by manufacturers of premium appliances – exclude any sales made directly through owned stores Let’s say our competitors can ful l on average 65% of the needs of their retailers while we can ful l only 50% of our retailer’s needs. If we improve the incentive structure, we could match the performance level of our competitors. How much of our objective will be met through this? Assume growth is in line with the industry or a little more perhaps. Why do you ask about the market share? In order for us to grow by 60% over the next years, we need to understand whether there is scope to increase by that amount. If we already hold say 80% market share, increasing revenue within the same line of business would be dif cult unless the base also increases. Also, what does the competitive landscape looks like? That shouldn’t be a problem. Don’t worry about the competitors. There are say two competitors A and B with similar market share. Could I get some visibility on revenue streams – Are we only selling premium appliances? My understanding of the value chain is that we procure appliances from manufacturers and distribute to retailers. Yes, it is a traditional distribution business. There are two product lines – premium appliances (80%) and xtures (20%). Focus on premium appliances for this case given they earn higher pro ts. Why don’t you start working on the problem? Thank you for the information. Given that 80% of our business is driven by premium appliances, the revenue share of such products would be $1200mn. Increase in revenue would be $360mn (1200/0.5*0.65-1200). Pro ts equate to one third of revenue and therefore increase in overall pro ts would be $120mn. $180mn to go. You mentioned about geographical expansion. How do we go about that in India? Sure. Perhaps, we could divide the regions into 5 – North, East, West, South and Central and look at our penetration rate. We have 150 branches overall and no presence in South. It is a complete white space for us to enter. How many branches would be required to ful l our objective? Looking at our existing operations, we are almost earning $10mn through each branch (including xtures - $1500/150). We need to ful l the remaining objective of earning another $180mn of pro ts or $540mn of revenue. Therefore, on average 54 similar branches would be required. Would you be able to earn this amount of revenue by opening 54 branches within three years? Sure. Please give me a minute to put the structure in place. To increase pro ts, we can look at increasing revenue, decreasing cost or both. 42 fi fi fi fi fi fi fi fi fi fi fi fi fi fi fi fi fi fi fi fi fi Indian Institute of Management, Kozhikode Growth Strategy Appliance Distributor Immediately, no. This was a ballpark number but several variables need to be evaluated. First, are the consumption patterns in South similar to an average region in which we operate in terms of income level (this will dictate whether people can afford premium appliances or not). Second, if this a white space why have other competitors not entered and how are end consumers accessing premium appliances otherwise – of ine manufacturer owned stores or online?. Third, if there are any supply chain/operational constraints in the region that affect feasibility of opening branches. How would you evaluate how much would an average branch earn? I could analyze the demand side from end customer consumption patterns and evaluate how much revenue can be earned by a particular branch in a particular area. <<<Started breaking down the population in different income levels>>> Wait. What are you trying to evaluate? Why don’t you take assumptions on supply side and proceed? I was trying to gauge how many people would actually buy premium appliances and then how many of these would actually buy from retail stores we supply to. The retailers would in turn place orders with us. However, from supply side we could assume capturing market share on the basis of previous data on which regions we have entered and how much market share have we been able to capture or if this is not available, any data on entry by a player in the same industry. Make your own assumptions Initially in the rst year, we could gain say 10% of the market share. With stable operations and greater incentives, we could double the share to 20% in the second year. The growth would stabilize in the following years – say reach 25% in the third year Thank You. That would be all 43 fl fi Indian Institute of Management, Kozhikode Growth Strategy Appliance Distributor Your client is a premium appliance distributor in India. The client wants to increase pro ts by $300mn in 3 years Approach / Framework Increase Pro t by $300nm in 3 years Supply Constraints Fixture Premium Revenue Increased Volume Volume = No. of Retailer *Avg Ticket size*frequency in a year Computing Growth Competitors Costs New Business Existing Business Increased Penetration Industry Growth Revenue Streams New Products New channels New geographies Increased Price subject to price elasticity 1.Sales data of premium appliances to customers tracked by retailers 2.Sales of competitors 3.Sales by manufacturers of premium appliances – exclude any sales made directly through owned stores Increased no. of Retailers More incentives to be provided 44 fi fi Indian Institute of Management, Kozhikode Growth Strategy Fibre Manufacturer Your client is a wood pulp based bre manufacturer and has been running into loses. The operations are majorly in Europe and Asia (India and Vietnam). The client wants you to nd the cause and provide recommendations. Okay. I wanted to know if our client also distributes the product? If yes, who are the customers? Approach / Framework Yes, the client supplies to the customers who are cloth manufacturers. The bre is majorly used to make shirts. Okay. So I wanted to divide the possible factors into two categories: External and Internal. Go ahead. Firstly, I wanted to know if there are any substitutes available in the market? Reason Cause for making Loses Yes, most cloth manufacturers use polyester and other better quality bres. So it looks like the substitutes dominate the market. How was the competition in Europe and Asia? Are they making loses too? External Factors The client has three major competitors in Europe and two in Asia. Europe competitors are also making loses in recent years. Our major competitors in Asia are doing okay. Internal Factors Ok. This looks like a industry wide problem in Europe. Are there any new government regulations that led to the loses in Europe? Also how’s Asian market doing overall? Market Growth Pricing No. There weren’t any new regulations. Asian market as overall is doing okay but Chinese market is growing since past few years. Competition Marketing Now I wanted to look at internal factors: 1. Is the pricing done right? 2. How good is their marketing team and their efforts? 3. Also how’s the service quality? Government Regulation Service Quality The client has competitive pricing and they have good marketing campaigns. But irrespective of that, they couldn’t push the sales. There are no issues on this front. Okay. Give me a moment to gather my thoughts. You are on the right path. Summarise whatever you’ve gathered till now and provide recommendations if any. Okay. So it looks like the market for wood pulp based bre in Europe is decreasing as the competitors are also making loses and Asian markets are doing decent. The client cannot do much in the existing markets so they can consider expanding to Chinese market. And this can be done by starting from scratch, by an acquisition or by a joint venture. I would recommend joint venture as it will allow the client to tap into existing infrastructure of the company which makes the market entry a little easy. Thank you. All the best for further rounds. 45 fi fi fi fi fi Indian Institute of Management, Kozhikode Air Conditioning Company The client is an air conditioning company which is currently operating in India. The growth rate for the client is 10-15% and they want to grow 5 times in 5 years. Recommend a growth strategy for the client. Okay. When you growth, are we talking about growth in terms of volume or pro ts? In terms of volume. Okay. Can you tell me who are the customers, competitors and in what regions do the client operate? List down the points which can help the client to decide a new product launch in the market. 1. Whether existing market can be exploited. 2. Introduction of new product should not cannibalise the sale of existing products. 3. Cost in terms of human resources, manufacturing units and distribution strategies. Thank you! The client has his operations throughout India. No strong competition as of now. 90% of customers are in residential sector and 10% of customers are in commercial sector. Can you brie y tell me about the value chain? The client manufactures and supply it to distributors, who then sell them to customers. So typically, a company can grow through their existing business or through new business. First I’d like to analyse options in existing business. Is that okay? Sure. Go ahead In the existing business, the client can look at increasing the number of customers or increasing the basket size. So I wanted to know a little more about customer base. Is there any speci c class to which the client caters to? The client majorly caters to middle class segment. As, the client was currently catering to middle class. They can cater to a new segment i.e. premium segment and can increase the price also. Sounds good. But how do you propose to increase the price? There are two options in which it can be possible: 1. Adding value added services like free delivery and installation services 2. Providing after sales service If the client enters the new segment, what can be the potential concerns? There can be threat from competitors operating in this space because there’ll be addition in costs due to value added services and the client needs to come up with new marketing strategies. Okay. Now move on to new business ideas. The client can consider the options such as geographical expansion, increasing product line, diversifying into new business, or by acquiring/merging with a new company. 46 fi fi fl Indian Institute of Management, Kozhikode Growth Strategy Air Conditioning Company The client is an air conditioning company which is currently operating in India. The growth rate for the client is 10-15% and they want to grow 5 times in 5 year. Recommend a growth strategy for the client. Approach / Framework 5X Growth in 5 Years Existing Business Increase in volume New Business Increase in Price New Geographies Increase Customers Increase in Basket Size Current Market Segment New Market Segment Middle -Class High-End Value Added Services Indian Institute of Management, Kozhikode Increased Product line Diversifying into new Business Acquiring/Merging with other companies After Sales Services 47 Growth Strategy Energy Sector Our client is an energy sector player in Mumbai. They are into the business of providing LPG to the households. They have an annual pro t of INR 500 crores. Over the years, the money has accumulated and we have been hired to suggest how the client can put this money to use. Where does our client lie in the overall value chain? Our client sources liqui ed gas from market players and supplies it to households. The client owns the entire infrastructure required for operations Why has the client been accumulating so much money? Is it a public sector entity? Yes. It is a public sector entity. Initially, they were funding their infrastructure needs through their pro ts but since the required infrastructural investments are practically nil, they have been amassing this wealth for some time. As to why exactly they haven’t thought of putting it to use before is unknown to us. Ok. What are the aspirations of the client from this excess cash? Do they have any speci c target/ outcome that they want to achieve? Not really. The issue is that they don’t know what to do with this money. We can practically explore anything under the sun. I shall look at 2 investment avenues for the client: Investment to grow existing business Investment to enter new markets/ businesses etc. Financial investments? Yes. Go ahead. Tell me what all types of projects would you consider in each of these options? I would consider the following: Investment to grow existing business: • Investments to improve operational ef ciency – The client can consider investing in improving operational ef ciency which would lead to even higher pro ts in the future, which we can nd ways to put use to. • Expanding within Mumbai – The client can consider investing in expanding its infrastructure in and around Mumbai to expand its customer base, again leading to even higher pro ts for future use. Investment to enter new markets/ businesses etc: • Investment in new markets – The client can consider investing in new geographies to supply liqui ed gas. Since the client already has capability in that area and liquid gas supply industry is in its nascent stage, the client can become very big in this sector. Given the excess cash, the client can look at directly acquiring an existing player or can aggressively bid for new tenders. fi fi fl fi fl fi fi fl fi fi fi fi fi I would consider the following parameters to decide on which project should the client choose: • Criticality of the project to the business (sustainability, immediate requirement etc.) • Initial investment required and our current cash position • NPV of the projects Let's say all the projects have positive NPV. Also, the client has enough cash to fund any of these projects initially. All the projects also have similar criticality for the business. (Data given: Project wise initial cash requirements, their NPVs and existing excess cash) As I can observe from the data, the client is not in a position to fund all the projects simultaneously but can start with any of the projects, I would look at the timings of the future cash ows to suggest a speci c sequence of projects to the client. I will estimate future cash ows of the projects. Post that, I shall start with the project with the highest NPV. Since, it also has highest cash out ow and no other project can be funded simultaneously, I will look at cash ows and see when next best project can be funded or at what sequence will the NPV for the client would be highest. In general called Capital Budgeting. You can also choose to call it an excel optimization problem. I think we can close the case here. 48 Indian Institute of Management, Kozhikode fl Okay. Let’s say that the client has 4 projects as options across these buckets. How would you go about selecting and recommending a project? How would you do that? There is one avenue which is missing. Can you think which one? fi • Investment in new businesses – Since there is lots of talk about green energy and reduction in carbon footprint, our client is in a good position to enter some new business and build capabilities overtime to ensure that their future position is secured. Financial investments: The client can hire an investment management company to manage its excess cash by investing in capital markets and can then look for investments in the future. Market Entry Telecom The client is a Swedish telecom company with good investments in 5G, they are scoping to enter the Indian market. Should they do it? What is the competitive landscape for telecom in India? Makes sense. Please go ahead. Population*No. of phones per person -> Filter for smartphones -> Filter for 5G enabled phones -> Filter for SIMs per phone -> New users and existing users-> Within existing users, people who would switch to 5G within their own telecom operator or take 5G from another player-> People who would take 5G would either port out of the existing player or buy an additional sim. Assumed that new users wouldn’t generally directly go to 5G services so early on. Within existing users, the two large telecom players have strong brand loyalty as they give a lot of value-added services- such as Jio suite of services, Airtel Payments Bank and so on so forth, therefore it might be dif cult for the client to compete with them. I assumed, therefore for our client the target market would be people who would buy an additional SIM to get 5G services. My nal number came to 3.5 million. Thus applied a 20% lter (the player will enter into metro circles as 5G adoption in non-metro areas would be dif cult) bringing the number to 0.7 million. Two large players- Jio and Airtel with around 40% market share each and Vi with 20%. Do you think they would be able to get this number? The way I would like to approach this problem is to look at economic viability, opportunity and operational feasibility. In the economic viability, I’d like to see the investment opportunities and under operational feasibility, internal and external factors and market sizing under opportunity. TRAI regulations state that a new entrant can undercut existing players without the incumbents being allowed to retaliate as was seen in the case of Jio. Thus by right pricing strategy, they would be able to gain market share. Existing competitors might also be late adopters of 5G given that there is a signi cant CapEx involved and they are not very pro table and highly debt-laden right now. The new entrant will also be taking over only a small chunk of subscribers which would make incumbents unlikely to retaliate. Sounds like an interesting case. Do they want to enter for a speci c spectrum or they want to be there across 2G, 3G, 4G or 5G spectrums? They want to enter in the 5G market only. What is their objective in entering the market- is it market share, pro tability? The number of subscribers in their existing markets has stagnated. They want to get as many subscribers as they can, pro tability is not a concern at this stage, they will eventually become pro table. Do they have any timeline in mind? They want to enter by the mid of 2022. Have they entered any other market recently? No. Let’s start of with the market sizing that you mentioned. Great! There are two ways of going about it- demand and supply. Within demand we can look at the need for 5G among customers. In the supply side, we can look at how many phones will be 5G enabled and calculate the market opportunity for our client using that. Given that there is a strong supply constraint of 5G phone I believe that would be a more relevant approach. Let’s proceed with that. Given that they would only get a small fraction of the market, should they enter the market? The recommendation will be to enter the market. Even though they are getting only a fraction of the market, this fraction represents a huge delta of around 15% from their existing subscriber base and thus will help them tackle stagnating growth. Currently around 10% of phones in India are 5G enabled. I assume that the number would be 30% by the mid of 2022. How do you justify 30% Most of the smartphone players are global players who also exist in markets such as Europe high cost for geography speci c 5G and non 5G manufacturing of the same and North America which are already making a shift to 5G. Given that a lot of these variants sold by Apple and Samsung in India are same as those sold in Western countries, they will also be 5G enabled given that they are the same variants and manufacturers would incur a variant. 49 fi fi fi fi fi fi fi fi fi fi fi Indian Institute of Management, Kozhikode Market Entry Telecom The client is a Swedish telecom company with good investments in 5G, They are scoping to enter the Indian market. Should they do it? Approach / Framework New Market Entry Opportunity Feasibility Visibility Market Sizing Target Market share customer segment. PESTEL Analysis Regulations Strategic Barriers Investment Opportunities Human & Physical Resources Competitors share Major Players Strength & Weakness Value Chain Analysis Vertical & Horizontal Integration Timeframe Revenue Generation Product Existing USP Pricing Entry Strategy : JV/Acquistion/Merger Poll Entry Risks : Cannibalisation, Culture & socio factors Visions Goals Objectives Indian Institute of Management, Kozhikode 50 E-Cigarettes Market Entry Your client is a US based E-cigarette company is looking to introduce its product in Indian market. Why do they want to expand in India? They are facing a lot of regulatory issues in US because of underage consumption of their product, resulting in stagnant growth. Hence, want to expand in a country with a growing economy. What type of competition they might face in Indian E-Cig market? There is no big player although there are some small players with Chinese products. Can you provide some speci cations about the product and type of customers the client wants to target? Product speci cations and type of Customers – 1 device with 4 cartridges and 1 cartridge lasts as long as 1 pack of cigarettes (20 cigarettes). Device lasts for ~5 years. Customer can purchase pack of 4 cartridge pack separately after that. Ideal target customers are premium cigarette chain smokers. Is there any speci c objective regarding market share or pro tability that the client wants to achieve? The client wants to capture maximum market in less amount of time. I would like to approach this problem statement through 4 buckets : A. Understand market attractiveness – Size and growth prospects along with Porter 5 force analysis. B. Understand pro tability aspects – Potential Market share, Initial investments, pricing of product and overall pro tability C. Operational Feasibility D. Mode of Entry I would now like you to suggest what price should the client quote for the product. Sure. To suggest a price, I would like to come up with a price band between which we could price the product. Do you want me to suggest a price for the device and cartridge separately? Yes. Suggest a price for a pack of device + 4 cartridges, and a price for only a pack of 4 cartridges. Ok sure. Continuing my previous approach, I would like to estimate the lower limit of price band through cost-based price and upper price band through a combination of Substitute based and value based pricing. For that I would like to understand the cost that our client will incur in manufacturing and distribution of the product. Ok. Cost incurred for the device is $27 per unit and cost for cartridge is negligible. Ok. Taking a conversion factor of 70, cost in INR for the device would be ~INR 1900. Since cartridge cost is negligible, the lower limit for our price band stands at INR 1900. Now considering price for substitute – One pack of premium cigarettes cost on an average INR 300. Since, one cartridge lasts as long as 1 pack, hence pack of 4 cartridges will be equivalent to 4 packs of cigarettes, which stands at INR 1200. Hence a pack of 4 cartridge can be priced at INR 1200. We can also charge a premium on this, since our device will be much more portable, stylish and will have a status symbol attached to it. So what is your nal recommendation? To capture maximum market, we should price the device+4 cartridge just at cost, i.e. INR 1900. We will earn pro t by selling cartridges at >INR 1200 (INR 1500) since cost incurred for manufacturing cartridge is negligible. The approach sounds good at an upper level. Why don’t we start by estimating the total market size. I would like to follow a top-down approach for this, starting with the total Indian population (also depicted in owchart): • Indian Population -> Urban (40%) and Rural (60%) | Removed Rural branch as consumption of tobacco in the form of Cigarette is less • Age Split -> <18 years (30%), 18-60 years (50%) , >60 years (20%) | Removed <18 years for being underage and >60% for low smoking rates because of health concerns • Male (50%) and Female (50%) • Income Split -> Low Income (30%), Middle Income (50%), High Income (20%) | Removed low income branch as premium cigarette consumption will be negligible • Considered 40% smokers in Males and 20% in females. All High Income population considered as premium brand smokers. Upper Middle Class (50% split in upper and lower middle class) population considered as premium brand smokers 51 fi fi fl fi fi fi fi fi fi Indian Institute of Management, Kozhikode E-Cigarettes Market Entry Your client is a US based E-cigarette company is looking to introduce its product in Indian Market. Market Sizing Approach / Framework Indian Population Urban <18 Years (30%) fi >60 years (20%) 18-60 Years (50%) Female (50%) 40% Smokers 20% Smokers • • • • • • • Middle Income (50%) High Income (20%) Upper Middle Income (50% split in upper and lower middle class) considered as premium cigarette smokers All high income considered as premium cigarette brand smokers Indian Institute of Management, Kozhikode Pro tability Aspects Operation Feasibility Mode of Entry Rural Male (50%) Low Income (30%) Market Attractiveness Market Sizing Market Growth Supplier Power Customer Power Threat of new entrant Threat of substitute Competitive Landscape • • • • Market Share Initial Investment Product Pricing Profitability • Setting up Value Chain • • • Start from scratch JV M&A 52 E-Commerce Market Entry Currently our client, South East Asian Fast Fashion E-commerce business (specialising in Apparel. Footwear, and accessories for both men and women) operates in 5 countries: Indonesia, Vietnam, Singapore, Malaysia, and Thailand. How would you evaluate whether it should enter India or not? Sounds great. Let me recap, our client which is into E-commerce Fashion Business is currently operating in 5 countries and wants to expand in India. I need to evaluate this option. I have a few clarifying questions before we evaluate the market entry. Yes , go ahead. I would like to evaluate 4 areas here. Firstly, I would like to see if the market for Fast Fashion in India is attractive. Secondly, I would like to evaluate how will we operationalise the venture in India. Here I would like to evaluate various options that we have. Thirdly, as this is a foreign venture, I would like to evaluate any risks or challenges that we might face. Finally, I would like to see what is the Return on Investment that we might be able to generate. Seems good. Could you elaborate each of the areas that you have mentioned.? Sure. To see if the market is attractive, I would like to understand the market size and the market growth. I am assuming since e-commerce is growing rapidly in India, the growth would be robust and in double digits, but if we have any hard numbers around these it would be great. Then I would like to evaluate our competitors and what are the points of differentiation that we bring with us in terms of product lines, customer targeting, and scale economies that we can leverage to compete in India. Finally based on this I would like to understand what is the market share that we can gain in the initial few years. That looks like a good approach. Can you let me know what are factors you will look at in order to operationalise the venture? To evaluate how we will operationalise our venture, I would look at 4 factors: (i) Getting the necessary licenses and permissions from the govt. (ii) Setting up the supply channels in India, (iii) Setting up the distribution networks viz. warehouses, delivery channels, customer service. (iv) Launch strategy in terms of pricing, marketing and promotion, and initial product lines. Based on the above 4 factors I would evaluate what options do we have. I presume we can evaluate 2 options here: a ground up green eld strategy or acquiring an existing fast fashion e-commerce. fi fi fi fi fi fi fi Indian Institute of Management, Kozhikode How will you evaluate the risk and challenges faced by this venture? I will evaluate risks and challenges under 3 categories: regulatory risks, operational risk, and nancial risks (listed a few speci c risks under each bucket). Finally, I would like the venture to have a positive Return on Investment over the long term otherwise it would not make sense to enter India. There is a minimum ROI threshold that any business has. If the business in India is exceeding that threshold, we are good to go. Seems comprehensive. Let’s stop here and move to other problem that we are facing. Our pro tability is suffering as there is a high inventory wastage of 30%. We source from our suppliers in China and send it to 5 above-mentioned countries. There is huge wastage in Vietnam and Malaysia whereas stock out in Singapore. How would you reduce the wastage in Inventory? Also, we cannot move inventory from one country to another as the double taxation across countries makes it unviable to move inventory from, say, Singapore to Malaysia. Thus, we either throw the remaining inventory or provide deep discounts. Let’s, look at it from 2 aspects. Short-term and Long-term solutions. Under short term solution, we could work on (i) need based shipments with a smaller order size, or (ii) We can have minimal customisations at Chinese factories. The required customisation can be done at the destinations which would help in reducing the wastage by improving the scope of usage of the product. In Long term: (i) We have to work on better demand forecasting mechanisms to predict the inventory requirement and (ii) Establish country level manufacturing facilities. This would be contingent upon the Economies of scale that we can establish there Interesting. Suppose we are sending 1000 materials to these 5 countries. Would you be in favour of sending 300 materials in the same proportion to these 5 countries. Let’s look at the bene ts and the indirect costs that we might face if we are reducing the order size from the Chinese factories. Bene ts: Reduced wastage, lower inventory holding costs. Costs: Stock out (opportunity cost), customer dissatisfaction (longer delivery time if we are sourcing the order after the customer has made the purchase) leading to higher customer churn. Here the costs are higher than the bene t, so I would not recommend reducing the order size by 70%. That’s answer my question. Thank you. 53 Food Delivery Services Market Entry Our client is an Indonesian food delivery giant. It is looking for growth opportunities outside its own country. It has identi ed India as one possible destination for expansion. However, they will enter India only if the unit economics make sense. This is their only criteria for entry. Could you evaluate if they should enter? Interesting case. Let me reiterate to be on the same page, our client is an Indonesian food delivery is looking for expansion in India. I need to evaluate this option in the light of unit economics. I would like to ask a few clarifying questions before I begin. Yes , go ahead. What is the objective of the expansion? What about the competitors? The client believe that India has a potential market which is expected to grow substantially in the coming years. Talking about the competition, there is high penetration; so many companies have already ventured into food delivery segment. Given variable cost per order = INR 30(Customer related charges), the contribution per order is INR 50(80-30). As the salary of delivery person is INR 25000 per month, we would need to deliver 25000/50 = 500 orders per month to break even on the unit level. If the number of working days is 25 per delivery person, each delivery person would need to deliver 500/25 = 20 orders per day. Thus, the unit economics do not make sense here. Great, could you suggest what are the metrics that we need to optimise to ensure that the unit economics make sense? Let’s divide the metrics in two aspects: • Customer related metrics: Ticket size/Customer, LTV/customer • Delivery person: Number of Deliveries/day, idle time/total working time. Great, that would be all. Okay, Do you want me to evaluate market attractiveness as well, or we should just evaluate the unit economics? No, jump straight to unit economics. As we are considering just the unit economics, let's ignore the xed cost for the time being. We can consider it afterwards if needed. We should consider 2 aspects here, Revenues per order and Costs per order. For revenues, we would charge a commission to restaurant partners per order and would charge a deliver fees to the customers. On the cost side we would have customer acquisition costs that would be spread across the orders and the delivery charges in terms of rider commission per order and fuel costs. Great I think we are good with all these costs. Let me give you some numbers for this. Delivery person salary: INR 25000/month (inclusive of fuel) Other customer related charges: INR 30 Commission from the restaurants: 20% of the ticket size Delivery charges: INR 20/order Alright, What I will do now is to evaluate what are the number of orders that could be delivered per delivery person and compare it with the breakeven number of orders. To calculate the number of orders delivered, let’s assume that the delivery person works for 10 hours and takes around 40 minutes (justi ed this by considering, average distance, traf c situations, etc.). Thus, a peak delivery of 15 orders per day could be done. We need to factor in the idle time during the afternoons, and lunch time and take 10 orders. Now, to calculate the breakeven orders, we rst need to calculate the average ticket size per order to calculate the commission (Considered 3 segments: Bachelors, Couples, Large Family; and then applied weighted average to arrive at INR 300 per order). Thus, the commission that we can charge per order is 20%*300 = INR 60. Thus, the revenue per order is 60 + 20(Delivery charge) = INR 80. 54 fi fi fi fi fi Indian Institute of Management, Kozhikode Food Delivery Service Market Entry Our client is an Indonesian food delivery giant. It is looking for growth opportunities outside its own country. It has identi ed India as one possible destination for expansion. However, they will enter India only if the unit economics make sense. This is their only criteria for entry. Could you evaluate if they should enter? Approach / Framework Growth opportunity in India for food delivery services Evaluate Market Attractiveness Pro t/Loss and Break even points (Unit economics) Actual Cost Potential Revenue Particulars Actual Delivery per day Average ticket size per order Thus, unit economics do not make sense here. Commission per order Revenue per order Projections 10 per day INR 300 300*20% = INR 60 60 + 20 (Delivery Charge) = INR 80 Salary of delivery person INR 25000 Number of working days 25 days per delivery person Required delivery per day 20 per day Particulars Amount Variable cost per order INR 30 Salary of delivery person INR 25000 Need to deliver orders per month INR 25000/50 = 500 to break even on the unit level 55 fi fi Indian Institute of Management, Kozhikode You are having tea with Mr. Ratan Tata. He has just returned from Germany where he saw third party car service stations which were doing very well. So, he is thinking of opening a chain of such stations in India. You need to give him your thoughts and make a pitch from BCG’s side for helping him with the project. Can you elaborate a little on what exactly do you mean by third party service stations? To service a car there are service stations. They can be authorised stations like the chain that Maruti has or they can be local garages. The third type, which is currently missing in India, is an independent chain of service stations which will service any brand. These are third party service stations Ok. This is a new business that Tata would want to enter. I’d like to look at know Tata’s nal aim - do they have a target pro t /market share/return on assets as their target from the venture Tata is a big & pro table company; they want as high pro ts as possible from the venture. I also wanted to know if there are any constraints on nancing, expertise in area and synergies with other businesses They have no constraints with regards to nances. They build automobiles as you know and have authorised service stations for their automobiles So, the aim of Tata is high pro ts and they have suf cient nances and expertise in the automobile area. I’ll go on to look at the automobile maintenance market. Currently in India there are 2 kinds of garages – the local ones and authorized service stations. So, when we enter the market, would we be servicing all kinds of brands and providing a full range of services? Yes. All brands and a full range of services Now I wanted to look at the competition in the market. We would need to differentiate ourselves from the 2 kinds of competitors that we have in order to get customers Ok. How would you do that? I’ll look at why a customer goes to a service station and why he chooses a particular station to go to. A car would be taken to a service station for i) Regular check-ups/ services ii) In case of an accident iii) Maintenance when it breaks down Ok Now when an owner chooses a service station he would want 1. Quality – In terms of genuine parts if replacements are done, trained mechanics, the car being treated properly, delivery on time 2. Cost – He would want the service to be as cheap as possible 3. Convenience – The service station should be close or should have a pick & drop service. fi fi fi fi fi fi fi fi fi fi fi fi There would be a segment of customers who would lay a lot of emphasis on cost while another segment would lay emphasis on quality. In case of an accident or break-down convenience would play a big role. Local garages will have low quality and low cost while authorized service stations will have high quality and high cost. Also, local garages are generally more in number so would be more convenient to reach in most cases Ok. Now I want you to make a grid of the dimensions that you’ve mentioned and gure out where our competitors lie and where we should go. Let us club convenience with quality. We’ll just analyse the situation based on 2 parameters Now, Tata wants to start a third party chain of service stations which will serve all brands. If Tata targets 1. low quality, local garages will beat them since these garages can service all brands and charge very low unbeatable prices. Also, they would be built at strategic locations which Tata may not be able to acquire, coming late into the market 2. On comparing Tata stations with authorized service stations, Tata could stand a chance. They could ensure quality by sourcing parts from manufacturing companies and employing well trained mechanics. Since such a service station will service all brands it will be a convenient place to come to for high quality services. However, the price charged will be high. Do you think anyone will come to such a service station when they can go to a Maruti or Hyundai authorized service station? In India a majority of cars are Maruti and Maruti has a very good chain of service stations which are convenient to reach and high quality. Hence, Maruti cars will de nitely not come to Tata’s stations. Other brands like Hyundai would come since their service stations are few and far apart. If Tata offers the same quality at the same price, it might be cheaper & more convenient for consumers if Tata’s chain has numerous stations at strategic locations Maruti has almost 50% of India’s car market share. Now do you think it is bene cial to set up Tata’s third party service chain? Owners of other brands will prefer to go to their authorized service stations as they would be more trusted. And given such a lopsided market in favour of Maruti, it will be dif cult for us to compete with Maruti directly. So, the number of cars coming to Tata’s stations might be too low for the venture to be viable. But, if there are expectations that many new brands will enter India as some already have, then Tata’s venture could be viable given that these rms would not want to open a service chain of their own due to small numbers and newer vehicles could mean that the local garages might not be well-equipped to deal with all kinds of problems with the vehicle. 56 Indian Institute of Management, Kozhikode fi fi Market Entry | New Business Automobiles Market Entry | New Business Automobiles What would your nal recommendation be? My nal recommendation would be to not start such a venture currently since Tata would not be able to beat competitors on any dimension - cost or quality. However, in the near future this could turn sustainable so an eye should be kept on this market Ok. Thanks! New Services Available Services Customer Expectations Quality + Convenience Local Garages Cost Authorized Quality TATA should launch in this space High Local Garages Low COST Authorised Service Station High fi fi Indian Institute of Management, Kozhikode Low 57 A company is starting a Heli Taxi Service between Pune and Mumbai. You need to advice your client on the price it should charge from the client. I would like to ask a few clarifying questions. What is the objective of the client? The client just wants to break even in one year and there’s no other objective Can we know about the details of the company and the business model? Do they have any experience in the industry? The company does not have any experience in the industry. The company has leased 7 helicopters for the project. Does any competitor run on the same route? How much time does it take? No. This is a new route that we are launching. The total time for one ride is 1 hour. This includes all the times from check-in till check-out. So the pricing can be done using 3 approaches – Cost Based, Value Based and Competitor Based. Which one should I look into? Start with Cost Based. How would you go about it? I would divide the costs into xed and variable. The Fixed costs would include the Salaries, Leasing Charges, Airport and Hangar Charges. The Variable costs would include the Fuel cost and any other VAS costs for the customers. That sounds fair. The Salary is 2 Crores per year, Leasing – 1 Crore per Helicopter per year and Hangar and Airport charges are 2 crore per helicopter per year. The Variable costs are 20,000 per trip. Okay. In order to go ahead, I would also want to know about the operations of the company. How many hours does it work in a day? The helicopters are in operation for 10-12 hours a day and can do 10 trips a day on an average. That brings us to 21000 trips a year assuming that the helicopters work for 300 days in the year (300*7*10), leaving aside the holidays and the helicopters being grounded for maintenance. I would want to further look into the number of seats that would be utilised in the whole year. I would want to divide the trips into Peak (2 round trips) and non-peak hour (3 round trips) with 80% and 60% occupancy respectively. Does that sound fair? Can you please con rm the size of the helicopter? Does that look ne to you? Let me recheck. Sorry I didn’t consider the number of helicopters in Leasing and Hangar costs. The Total Fixed cost is 23(2+(3*7)=23 crores) Crores and hence the total cost is 66 crore. That’s right. So the cost will be between 9,000 and 10,000 (66 crores/72000). Should I calculate the exact cost? No, we are done with this approach. What are the other methods that you were talking about? We can start with the value-based approach. There are two types of values that the helicopter service will add; Time and Flexibility. Time is value of time of the top executives of the companies and the time they save using our service. The time saved will be considered using the time taken between the originating point and the destination by car and the same points using the helicopter including the commute to the airport. The exibility can be a little lower if the departure times are xed. There is no problem with the exibility. You were talking about another approach as well. Yes. We can also use Competitor based pricing. Because we are the rst to start a service between Mumbai and Pune, we can look for services with similar distance or similar kinds of services at another location. We have a service in Bangalore where they take 3K-3.5K for a 15 minute journey. A crude calculation would bring the price to 12K-14K for a similar experience but we would also consider the value of the service within the city and the value of the service when ying between cities and also the different kinds of traf c faced in these cities and the types of customers taking these services. Also one competition can also be the corporate jets for Mumbai to Pune as the people in big corporates paying 10,000 for a helicopter ride may even have a corporate jet to enable travelling across cities. That sounds okay. The helicopter can seat 6 people including the pilot. Thank you for the information. That brings the total seats sold to approximately 72000. [seats sold per day (34) x #helicopters (7) x 300 days]. It was 21000 trips with maximum available seats at 105000, considering the occupancy rates, 72000 looks right. Should I move ahead with the costs? Yes that’s correct. Please move ahead with the costs. The total fuel cost is 42 crores while the Fixed cost is 2+2+1 i.e., 5 crores. 58 fi fi fi fi fl fi fi Indian Institute of Management, Kozhikode fl fl Pricing Helicopter Pricing Helicopter A company is starting a Heli Taxi Service between Pune and Mumbai. You need to advice your client on the price it should charge from the client. Approach / Framework Pricing Method for Heli Taxi Service Cost Based Variable Cost Fuel cost and any other VAS costs for the customers. Indian Institute of Management, Kozhikode Value Based Competitor Based Fixed Cost Salaries, Leasing Charges, Airport and Hangar Charges 59 Pricing Vistara Airways You would have travelled Vistara in the past. Let’s say that they want to price their Premium Economy and Business Class services. How would you go about doing that? There are three ways of pricing – Cost-based, Competitor-based and Value-based. Since it is a premium service, cost-base doesn’t make sense. To get a pricing oor, we can use the prices of normal economy class. We cannot do competitor-based pricing as well since Jet Airways has gone out of business and Air India’s business class is not really a competitor of Vistara. Currently, Vistara serves only India and hence, Air India is the only competitor. I would look at Value-based pricing. Okay. Can you please de ne value for me? Value is what price a passenger is ready to pay for extra services like priority check-in, priority boarding, free upgrades, last minute cancellation and all other bene ts. Pricing Okay. With that de nition, how would you go about measuring this ‘value’? I would look at conducting customer surveys. After ying with Vistara, we always get an SMS to rate various services. We can also include how likely the customers would be willing to avail these services and at what price. Do you think that people would explicitly mention on the survey as to what price would they be willing to pay? Cost based Competitor Based Value based I agree that there would be tendency for people to quote very low prices, even 0, because nobody would want to directly put a price to these services. But we can look at the frequency-of factors that people favour the most. What else can you do to measure ‘value’? I can look at the value of time that the passengers would save by because of services like priority check-in. For example, if a person saves half an hour due to priority check-in, I can calculate the value of that half an hour for that person and come up with an individual value for this service. But that would give you very vast range of answers. For example, value of half an hour of a wealthy business tycoon would be very high compared to others. Yes. And that is why I would look at speci c cohorts of people who actually travel through these airlines. Wealthy business people would mostly have their own private jets and would not be using services of Vistara. Ok. Good. I think we can end the case here. 60 fi fl fl fi fi fi Indian Institute of Management, Kozhikode Assume I am the CEO of Swiggy, and I am asking you to devise a Vision for Swiggy and based on that come up with the Vision statement. Could you help me? That’s Interesting, thank you. Just before we delve into this, I would like to understand what do we mean by Vision here. I believe, vision is something that you aspire to reach and your strategy is formulated based on this statement. Am I correct in assuming this? That seems to be correct. But consider this as well. It captures the aspirations of all the stakeholders of the rm. Perfect. So, something like True North that a rm aims to reach and which motivates all its stakeholders. Got it. I think the question is pretty clear. I would like to derive the Vision using 4 sequential steps. Firstly, what would be the market that we would be targeting in the long term. I would like to analyze this by evaluating our core assets (tech, manpower, captive customer data). Secondly, what are the capabilities that we need to develop, to capture those markets. Thirdly what key challenges and risks we might face based on the analysis of the rst 2 buckets; and nally, what would be nances required to reach our goal and how would we mobilise the funds as we are not publicly traded currently. the platform should be smart enough to understand the needs of the customers and upsell or cross sell the items. I think you have all the words that would help in devising a good vision statement. Could you synthesise your elaborations and come up with a concise vision statement now? To pioneer the food delivery business and connect each and every restaurant in India to the customers. That’s all. Thank you. Good. Using this we would be able to understand the tangible aspect of vision. But vision is something intangible. For e.g., Dunzo’s vision is on the lines of bridging the logistics gap between the users. How would you capture this intangible aspect? For this we can understand the needs of the stakeholders as you have highlighted earlier as well. The stakeholders here are the founders, investors, employees, and the customers. Are you missing an important stakeholder here. Okay got it. As this is a 2-sided platform, restaurant partners are also an important stakeholder. Now think of a statement that would make all the stakeholders happy. Based on the stakeholders, the vision could be to build the best food delivery ecosystem in India that maximises the value for the customers and partners. Will that motivate my employees. Will they be willing to wake up every day and be inspired to work at Swiggy? No. Let’s think what motivates the employees. It’s the monetary and non-monetary aspects. Let’s ignore the monetary aspects as the vision would not directly address that. However, employees would be motivated if we are pioneering the industry and building something that no other player is building viz. drone delivery. Good. What would make my restaurant partners happy? There are 2 things that would make them happy. Getting more and more customers and a higher ticket per order. To achieve the rst, the restaurants should have an equal opportunity to be featured on the list of restaurants in Swiggy. To achieve the latter, 61 fi fi fi fi Indian Institute of Management, Kozhikode fi fi Unconventional Vision for Swiggy Unconventional Employee Productivity at Public Sector Bank Client is a public sector bank and they have been facing low employee productivity. You are required to diagnose the problem and come up with recommendations. Sure, sir. So, the key problem is that our client is facing low employee productivity. I am required to diagnose the problem and provide some recommendations. I would like to ask some preliminary questions. Okay. Go ahead. Does the client have a pan-India presence? Yes. Since how long has the client been facing this issue? It’s been there for a very long time. Due to change in management, the client wants to focus on this problem now. What does a client mean by employee productivity and how do they measure it? A more robust mechanism on region-wise data collection should be put in place to identify appropriate targets. 2. Employees should be made part of the target setting process with a caveat that the targets which they select will have a direct bearing on their overall rewards Percentage of targets achieved. With that, you can move to the rewards. What are the employee targets? What type of R&R policies does the client have? Targets are a mix of loans, xed deposits, savings accounts etc. Basically, everything that an employee can sell in a bank branch. Employees have a xed and a variable salary. Apart from that, there are some employee recognition mechanisms wherein employees with the highest sales numbers are given some award price. Is there any speci c geography that the client has been facing this issue? This is a pan India problem. Why is our client saying that their employee productivity is low? What are they comparing it to? 1. How is the variable pay determined? Though the client’s employee productivity is not as bad when compared to other public sector banks, due to change in management, the new benchmark that the company is looking at is private sector banks. In comparison to private sector banks, our client’s numbers are very low. As per employee targets, a level-wise variable pay matrix is created. Ratings are assigned as per completion of the targets. I would like to start with the rst bucket. How are targets set currently? Each employee is given targets as per their previous year targets, irrespective of whether they were achieved or not. That also creates a problem because as discussed, some regions have potential for more business and some employees are more skilled than others which can lead to different levels of motivation for achieving those targets. What are the other aspects considered in target setting? How do you suggest solving this problem? The process is usually driven by the managers of the employees. You can assume that it is largely a top-down approach. As we discussed before, individual targets should be a function of regional potential and employee capability. The variable pay policy should follow a cohort system wherein employees taking up higher targets are rewarded differently vis-à-vis employees taking up lower targets. Do some geographies complete their targets vis-à-vis others? Yes. For example, in Mumbai, some of the branches are doing much better while others are unable to meet their targets. fi fi fi fi Indian Institute of Management, Kozhikode fl Okay, so prima facie, the issue is with the target setting process in itself. I can think of the following aws with the process: 1. No external input to target setting. For example, if a region is experiencing slow growth in general, it is unrealistic to set targets that would be nearly impossible to achieve. 2. Target setting should also take into account branch-wise inputs to decide on what the branch can achieve in the coming year. 3. Individual employee capabilities need to be accounted for when setting individual targets. This is what we also observed as problems. How would you go about addressing these issues? Is the same variable pay matrix used across India or is it tailored to each geography? The matrix remains the same. Good. That is what we also recommended. What else? Contextualise R&R policies to the region to ensure that employees get recognised at the right forums. 62 Employee Productivity at Public Sector Bank Unconventional Okay. Anything else you want to consider? I would like to analyze the problems related to organisation culture and other softer aspects. I will consider multiple aspects here: • Organization support • Organization culture and employee motivation • Employee capability and skills Okay. That looks good. Starting with employee capability and skills rst. What sort of training and development initiatives are provided by the client organisation? There is regular employee training. They are kept up to date with the latest changes in product offerings as well. In one of the surveys, the client found out that the employees were actually very happy with the efforts that the organisation was putting in with respect to the training. I will tackle the other 2 together. What sort of support is provided by the top management? What do you mean by that? In terms of sales process and knowledge sharing, how does the organisation support its employees? Knowledge sharing is very common in the organisation. Top management is usually always to provide all the necessary support. However, there are employees who are willing to work towards achieving their targets. What sort of additional support do you think the organisation can provide? The organisation can have technological systems to support the sales process. The client already has a state-of-the-art technology system in place. What else? The organisation can make its R&R policies more transparent and to communicate the upside of performing well to the employees. That can be done. But how can organisations additionally support the ones who are ready to work harder? The organisation can make an app that helps these employees track their targets on a daily basis and can correspondingly check their variable pay. That would keep them motivated regularly. Exactly. That is what we also recommended to our client. The development of that app is underway as we speak. Good job. fi Indian Institute of Management, Kozhikode 63 Unconventional Reserves Accumulation at Energy Sector Our client is an energy sector player in Mumbai. They are into the business of providing LPG to the households. They have an annual pro t of INR 500 crores. Over the years, the money has accumulated and we have been hired to suggest how the client can put this money to use. That’s interesting. I would like to start with some clarifying questions. Where does our client lie in the overall value chain? Our client sources liqui ed gas from market players and supplies it to households. The client owns the entire infrastructure required for operations. Why has the client been accumulating so much money? Is it a public sector entity? Yes. It is a public sector entity. Initially, they were funding their infrastructure needs through their pro ts but since the required infrastructural investments are practically nil, they have been amassing this wealth for some time. As to why exactly they haven’t thought of putting it to use before is unknown to us. Noted. What are the aspirations of the client from this excess cash? Do they have any speci c target/ outcome that they want to achieve? Not really. The issue is that they don’t know what to do with this money. We can practically explore anything under the sun. Alright. I shall look at 2 investment avenues for the client: • Investment to grow existing business • Investment to enter new markets/ businesses etc. player or can aggressively bid for new tenders. • Investment in new businesses – Since there is lots of talk about green energy and reduction in carbon footprint, our client is in a good position to enter some new business and build capability overtime to ensure that their future position is secured. 3. Financial investments – The client can hire an investment management company to manage its excess cash by investing in capital markets and can then look for investments in the future. Okay. Let’s say that the client has 4 projects as options across these buckets. How would you go about selecting and recommending a project? I would consider the following parameters to decide on which project should the client choose: 1. Criticality of the project to the business (sustainability, immediate requirement etc.) 2. Initial investment required and our current cash position 3. NPV of the projects Let's say all the projects have positive NPV. Also, the client has enough cash to fund any of these projects initially. All the projects also have similar criticality for the business. I would look at the timings of the future cash ows to suggest a speci c sequence of projects to the client. How would you do that? There is one avenue which is missing. Can you think which one? Financial investments? Yes. Go ahead. Tell me what all types of projects would you consider in each of these options? I will estimate future cash ows of the projects. Post that, I shall start with the project with the highest NPV. Since it also has the highest cash out ow and no other project can be funded simultaneously, I will look at the cash ows and see when the next best project can be funded or at what sequence the NPV for the client would be highest. Great. I think we can close the case here. I would consider the following: 1. Investment to grow existing business • Investments to improve operational ef ciency – The client can consider investing in improving operational ef ciency which would lead to even higher pro ts in the future, which we can nd ways to put use to. • Expanding within Mumbai – The client can consider investing in expanding its infrastructure in and around Mumbai to expand its customer base, again leading to even higher pro ts for future use. 2. Investment to enter new markets/ businesses etc. • Investment in new markets – The client can consider investing in new geographies to supply liqui ed gas. Since the client already has capability in that area and the liquid gas supply industry is in its nascent stage, the client can become very big in this sector. Given the excess cash, the client can look at directly acquiring an existing 64 fi fi fl fi fl fl fi fl fi fi fi fi fi fi fi Indian Institute of Management, Kozhikode Inadequate Profits for Interest Payment The client has a sea-port, currently operating 10 mn tons of cargo but has a capacity of 25 mn. He is charging $100 per ton and earning a revenue of $1000 mn. Out of this, variable cost accounts to 200 mn and xed cost as 400 mn. The rest is the EBITDA Margin amounting to 400 mn. The client is required to pay an interest payment of $1000mn yearly. Devise a turnaround strategy for the client. This seems like an interesting problem. To better understand it, I would want to begin with some preliminary questions. Is a client has an all-India presence or operates in any speci c region? Also the problem being faced by competitors in that region? Being national or regional presence is irrelevant here. The problem is speci c to the client’s sea port. Unconventional So, what can you inference from this data points? The revenue for the client has increased and they are in a better position to pay off the interest payment if compared with the previous target. Great. Do you have any recommendations for the client? I’ll like to give following recommendations: 1. Improve the service quality as to attract more consumers 2. Provide discounts in case of bulk quantities 3. In long-term, the client can open sea ports in another region to increase the pro ts 4. They can sign ling-term contracts with some of the business houses and corporations Sounds good. I believe we can wrap up the case here. Okay. Can you please provide me some more detail about the competitors? What is their operational capacity and what price are they charging? There are 2 other ports which are currently operating in 90mn tones and charging $90 per ton. Alright. Who are the customers? The client only deals with business houses and corporations. I would now like to deep dive into the problem. The turnaround strategy for the client should be to increase the revenue as to make timely interest payments. I can think of doing it through organic strategy (same or additional portfolio of services) and inorganic strategy (through diversify into new business, penetrate into new market, etc.). Okay. Inorganic strategy is not feasible for our client at this particular time. You can focus on the organic strategies. Noted. The organic strategy can involve either by increasing the customer base or increase the price charged by the client. But since the competitors are already charging a lesser price, the client should decrease the price in order to gain the competitive advantage and increase the customer base. This seems feasible. Hypothetically, take the price as $80mn which will subsequently increase the operating tons from 10mn to 20mn. Okay. With this price, the revenue of the client will increase to (80*20) $1600mn. Fixed cost will remain the same, i.e. $400mn. Variable cost per unit is (200/10=$20 per ton) and total variable cost for 20mn tons will be (20*20) $400mn. Hence, the total cost is (400+400) $800mn. EBIDTA is basically deducting cost out of revenue. Therefore, in this case EBIDTA would be (1600-800) $800mn. 65 fi fi fi fi Indian Institute of Management, Kozhikode Unconventional Inadequate Profits for interest Payments The client has a sea-port, currently operating 10mn tons of cargo but has a capacity of 25mn. He is charging $100 per ton and earning a revenue of $1000mn. Out of this, variable cost accounts to 200mn and xed cost as 400mn. The rest is the EBITDA Margin amounting to 400mn. The client is required to pay an interest payment of $1000mn yearly. Devise a turnaround strategy for the client. Approach / Framework Inadequate Pro ts for Interest Payment Revenues Organic Growth Same Portfolio services Inorganic Growth Addition of Portfolio services Measures to increase Quantity Increase Price Decrease Prices (Price Elasticity) Improving Quality of Services 66 fi Indian Institute of Management, Kozhikode fi Costs Unconventional Steel Manufacturer The client is a steel manufacturer who is facing decline in pro ts. You need to gure out the issue and provide recommendations. Here, is the decline due to decrease in revenue or increase in costs? And since how long have they been facing the issue? As per my knowledge, there are 5 broad steps involved in the process: Raw material -> melting -> adding alloys -> rolling (incorporating the speci cations/dimensions) -> logistics. Please correct me if I missed anything. Looks good! The client has seen a decrease in revenues since past three years. Are there any problems in any particular above mentioned steps? Given that it is an issue on the revenue side, is it because of the decrease in volumes or price per unit? We have no such idea The issue lies with the volumes. I would like to know is the issue speci c to the company or is it an industry wide issue? Competitors are doing well. So, we can conclude that the issue lies with the company. I wanted to know product portfolio and who are the customers? Can you also tell me about where are they located in India and how many manufacturing plants do they have? The client operates in the eastern part of India (raw material easily available) and distributes all across India. They have only 1 plant. Customers include all types of industries from heavy vehicles to medical instruments. There are nearly 10,000 SKUs (types of steel) which is slightly higher than the industry standard. As the problem is delivering wrong product, is there any issue with machinery used for rolling process or human error involved in the process? There’s no problem with either the machine or labour. Deep dive a little more into manufacturing process. Okay. I want to know about the batch size. Do they have a xed batch size or does it differ with the demand? So if there is a demand from one customer of 10 units and the batch size is 50 units, the client waits for more demand to come in and starts manufacturing only after they have a certain threshold of demand because the inventory costs are too high and hence do not want to store their products. This was the reason for the delay in delivery. Got it. But what is the case when the batch size is 60 units? Before moving ahead with the problem, can I know if the problem is with demand or supply? They send the 50 units from one batch and again wait for more demand to come in for the rest of the 10 units which was the reason for the incorrect quantity of supply. They are facing the issue with the demand. Okay. The client has also registered complaints regarding wrong product. Does it also have to do with the batch size or should I look at other things? Considering the issue is from demand side, I would like to categorise the problem into 3 broad categories: 1) Are customers not satis ed with the product? 2) Any better substitutes available in the market? 3) Are competitors doing anything better than us in terms of quality of product or better reach? Can you tell me if the issue lies in any of the above mentioned categories or should I explore further? Okay. The client has been receiving complaints from customers on various things like: 1) Product is incorrect 2) Product of wrong quality 3) Delivery not on time. I wanted to look at the wrong product rst. What do you exactly mean by wrong product? Can you elaborate on that part? Sure. The product is slightly different in the speci cation asked for but still could be adjusted and used by the customers. The problem was that if they produced 50 units of x but the demand is 25 units of x and 25 units of x+1, they just sent x to both as the difference in speci cations was minimal. Give me a minute to structure the information and provide some recommendations. Sure As we have identi ed the problem lies with batch size, the client can revise the size by considering the historical data. They can also work upon the 10,000 SKUs part by negotiating with players from the same industry and try pushing for a standardised product so that the 10,000 number can be reduced. These recommendations sounds reasonable. Thank you! Okay. I wanted to look at the process of obtaining speci cations from the customers and feeding the data into the plant. I wanted to check if there’s any chance for human error or loss of information during the process. The whole process is automated and there’s nothing wrong with the process. You can explore manufacturing process. 67 fi fi fi fi fi fi fi fi fi fi fi Indian Institute of Management, Kozhikode Due Diligence Robotics Your client is a PE rm and is evaluating a start-up that manufactures an automated warehouse management robot and you have to evaluate the market and give a recommendation. Sure sir, could you give me a little more information about the product and also about what kind of return period is the PE form looking at, and some information about the portfolio of the PE rm. Sure, the PE rm is looking at a short-term investment for 2-3 years, and evaluate the investment as stand alone so the portfolio is not important, the product is a small automated robot that helps loading and unloading of inventory in a ware house, so essentially now this is either done manually with help of mechanical tools such as fork lifts etc, A robot essentially costs around 20,000 and would be able to replace 2 FTEs. The startup has been operating for two years and is the only one in India right now and has sold over 1000 robots. So why don’t you start by assessing the market size, say how many robots will be sold in say in next 2/3 years I am essentially not looking for numbers but more along the lines how would you evaluate? (Assume the per day cost of FTE in India is $15 ) Alright. I would rst start by evaluate the product considering the cost of the product that is 20000 dollars and negligible maintenance costs, and Cost of an FTE in India is about 15 dollars a day, that essentially puts the payback period from 2 – 3 years. Hence the product de nitely gives a cost arbitrage helping its case for adoption. To understand the market size, I would like to start with the total number of warehouses. Yes, we are going to focus on the medium and large warehouses; Medium ware house in 40,000 sq. ft. and large is around 100,000 sq. ft. and each of these have a total space of around 1500 million sq. feet. So, we have a target market of 37,500 (1500mn/40,000) medium warehouses and 15,000 (1500mn/100,000) large warehouses. I want to evaluate target industries rst, warehouse management for heavy and large industries would require specialised tools, safety measures and also the ow of material is a factor we should consider, along with that the weight capacity and product speci cations. Right, so we have two products speci cations one with 100 kg payloads and 500kg payloads. Next its important to look at what kind on penetration rates we would be able to achieve in each of target industries , this essentially needs to be done using some intelligent estimates based on what kind of acceptance the industry has seen towards change, and also what industries we have been able to sell before and what sales channels will the company employ , what kind of interest the Customer decision makers are taking in the project and warehousing cost reduction at the movement. Then we essentially would have the number of target warehouses we will be able to sell in 2-3 years, based on industry / size of warehouse we can look at the number of FTEs employed in each warehouse divide the number by 2 and Multiply by 20,000 dollars to get the market size. Yes, now suppose we did that and the market turned out be under whelming, not a half a billion or a billion-dollar market but a meagre 20-million-dollar market, on what other things you will look at and go to the client with. Yes, rstly I will look at the short and long term, as the market is unattractive in 2-3 years; there is a possibility it explodes in the medium and long term. Then we should also look at the competition, right now we are the only player in the market but if the market explodes, we would see a lot of competition especially from China. We should also look at the risks involved, as India is a labor-intensive market, we should also evaluate risks of resistance from the labor unions and any labor law regulations. We should also do a complete evaluation of all aspects of the company, this would involve the Financial, Operational and Cultural evaluation. Apart from this we also should look at Alternative Uses of the technology And lastly evaluate exit options. This will not only consider other PE rms, but also a few strategic buyers like large logistics rms, or rms that sell a suite of warehouse management software and would like to integrate the product in their offering. That’s very good, you hit a lot of points that we actually looked at during the evaluation; but could you tell me why did you forget pro tability. Yes sir, pro tability should have been the rst thing I should have evaluated, but once you told me that the market size is disappointing, I started looking for other factors. Ok no problem, it was great. Thank you. Yes, so essentially heavy industries are out of the picture and as we are looking at automation we would also like to focus on industries with high volume, hence our focus market is industries with high volume and low weights i.e., FMCG, e-commerce, small machine part manufactures, apparels etc. That’s sounds good. What are you going to look at next? 68 fl fi fi fi fi fi fi fi fi fi fi fi fi fi fi fi Indian Institute of Management, Kozhikode Due Diligence Cement Industry A cement manufacturing company is looking to acquire or organically get into the paint industry. What are the factors to be considered? Before starting the case, I would like to ask some questions for a better understanding of the problem. Why our client is looking for an opportunity in the pain industry and what is the objective of the company? The company is looking for growth and pro tability. They see a lot of scope in paints. Alright. Does our client operate in any speci c region or pan-India? What is the valuechain and who are our customers? The company has a pan-India reach. Cement is distributed to dealers and then it is sold to the retailers. The client has two type of customers – 1) large clients who purchase in bulk. 2) Contractors & individuals who buy in small quantities. As I understood that the question is whether to go for Acquisition or organically establishing the value chain for paints, I want to do a cost bene t analysis for both the options and decide which is the best option. Okay. Can you list down all the factors that you would consider for acquisition alone? I can think of four categories: Market, Value addition, Risks and Financial Analysis to be considered for acquisition alone. Starting with the rst category, I would like to estimate the market share of the company. Can you please help me in the gures here? Also, I want to understand about the target company’s growth vis-à-vis the industry. Okay. What about the other two categories? I would wish to split risks into internal and external. • Internal – The distributors will lose margins if they get into cross selling activities, as the cement distributors can sell paint and not vice versa. So, some distributors from the target company will be agitated if a lot of volumes of paint are pushed through the cement value chain. There is huge nancial risk owing to huge debts and operation risk as well if we are rationalising our resources across the value chain. • External – Here, I would like to do a PESTLE analysis and observe the reactions from the competition and customers. For the Financial Analysis, I want to evaluate the company on the basis of their ability to generate future cash ow and decide the amount we are willing to shed to acquire this company through NPV analysis. I think this is comprehensive. We can skip the PESTEL and NPV analysis. Is there anything else in your mind? The client can create a 2X2 matrix of market attractiveness Vs Ease of doing business and check where our target company lies and if both factors are promising we can go for acquisition. Market Attractiveness can include – Market and results from nancial analysis and Ease of doing business can include – synergies and risk. Sounds great. We can wrap the case here. The size of the market is meagre 50 crores. The target is growing as per industry but are in losses. Understood. Now, I would like to analyze the second category i.e. value addition postacquisition. It can be split it into Revenue, Cost and Financial synergies. Revenue - cross-selling, bundling possibilities Cost – Given the fact that both the companies are not in the same category, is there any common raw material for both paint and cement? This question is relevant because both material is used in construction work and I wanted to know if we can expect to reduce any redundant resource due to this acquisition. Financial – What is the value of debt and cash in both acquisition and target company? There is a common raw material as an ingredient for both paint and cement and one of the plant is being closer to the client. And on the nancial aspect, the acquiring company and the target company both has huge debts. There is a possibility of getting bulk discounts because of scale and having a focused factory ( a factory inside a factory – possibility of eliminating the plant that is closer to the client). Also, post-acquisition, the company will get advantage in distribution because of economies of scale and scope which will lead to reduced storage and transportation costs. 69 fi fi fi fi fi fi fi fl fi Indian Institute of Management, Kozhikode Due Diligence Cement Industry A cement manufacturing company is looking to acquire or organically get into the paint industry. What are the factors to be considered? Approach / Framework Pro t and Budget Hotels Revenues Competition Market Size # Per unit Medium and Large Warehouses $ 20,000 Target Markets Risks Financial Operational Cultural Exit Opportunities fi Indian Institute of Management, Kozhikode 70 Due Diligence Airport Client is a large conglomerate with portfolio spanning across ports, power plants and coal plants. The client has recently won a bid that gives access to operate 6 airports currently under AAI. These airports are in state capitals. Airports serve both domestic and international ights. The bid gives access for 50 years. Two-part case: i) Top 5 key issues/risks that the client should worry about on Day 0 (think of keeping lights on and business continuity) ii) Maximize ROCE (in this case take EBITDA as proxy) over the next 5 years I would like to understand the objective of the client behind bidding for airports provided the current business portfolio does not include airports. The client believes this business is familiar because the portfolio businesses are also capital intensive. Operating airports is very close to working as a monopoly. Lastly, the client wanted to diversify its existing portfolio. Understood. Before we move on, I’d like to understand how the business model works. Please correct my understanding that all types of revenue would accrue to the client in exchange for an upfront fee to the government? Please help with the location of the airports as well because I understand these airports are in state capitals but how populated and connected are the cities under question? 3) Operational: Look at value chain and focus on what may interrupt the ow. • Talent (Hint: People aspect out of People, Process and Technology): We have experience with capital intensive businesses but not airports explicitly. Therefore, answering whether we have the required talent is a question mark. For this, we need look at internal workforce capabilities and external availability of required talent – may have to even poach from other private players. Such dearth of experience or talent may delay transition and hamper ef ciency. On revenue – yes the client would receive all types of revenue and would have to pay a convenience fee per passenger to the government. The client won the bid for quoting the highest convenience fee. The convenience fee is higher for international passengers than domestic passengers. On location – these state capitals are populated and well connected but not metropolitans as such. 4) Marketing • Branding: In case there is low traf c due to location issues, the company may have to spend more on branding the location as a lucrative travel destination to bring higher traf c/footfall. Could entail offering services at low cost to attract passengers. Sure. Thank you for the background. With the information available with me, I’d like to address the rst part of the case problem i.e. to identify key issues/risks on acquisition. And the bidding has already happened and hence evaluating whether to bid or not is out of scope. I would break down risks into four buckets and take it from there. 1) Administration • Stakeholder management: Our client is a private player and may have to deal with government authorities/bureaucrats which may be cumbersome. Their working style and ours would be different and thus there is possibility of con ict. This is a highly regulated industry as well meaning there can be interference and legal compliances. • Cultural differences: Our working environment may be different from that of AAI. The employees who would now work for us may face dif culties to cope up with new policies and procedures. 2) Financial: Mostly focus on major factors affecting revenue and costs. • Domestic vs international mix: We have already bid the highest which is why we won fi fl fl fi fi fi fi fi fi fi fl fi fl fl This is very comprehensive. Let’s move on to the second part of the problem to maximize EBITDA. Please focus on revenue side. What are the different streams of revenue for an airport? Major sources of revenue can be classi ed into ve: 1) Revenue from airlines: Passenger handling charges and aircraft related charges (terminal access fee, parking, baggage/freight handling and others) 2) Lease: paid by stores (Here the interviewer hinted to include lease from surrounding areas as well. There lease paid by stores inside the airport and parties surrounding the airport. The space surrounding the airport can be occupied by corporate of ces, hotels and/or shopping arenas. 3) Parking a) Passenger/normal cab parking b) Exclusive parking slots given to cab aggregators (Gave example of Delhi airport where Ola is given a designated spot where you can sit in any of the cabs and enter destination later) 4) Advertisements: Could be paid by inside stores or external advertisers 71 Indian Institute of Management, Kozhikode fi the bid. If the international passengers from the airport are higher than domestic, the out ow to the government would also be higher and thus higher costs. We may need higher level of working capital to meet payment obligations. • Location and size: Many airlines follow hub and spoke strategy where the hub usually represents high demand metros. The traf c at these hubs is much higher. Given that this is not a hub, the revenue may get affected due to limited traf c be it retail or corporate. If the size of the airport is small, it will act as a supply constraint. Also, the capability to offer premium ying slots or direct plane access facilities (no need for airport shuttle) would be limited and therefore the revenue will get impacted. Due Diligence Airport 5) Vending machines: A small share of revenue but vending machine sales would also accrue revenue to the airport either in the form of percentage of sales (if owned and operated by airport) or a lease like arrangement. If I were to ask you to focus on maximising revenue from any two streams, which ones would you choose and why? I would choose lease and advertisements because: • Lease – The proportion of revenue generated from leases would be high. Furthermore, an airport is like a monopoly and the area inside as well as outside the airport would provide exclusive access. Corporate of ces, hotels and shopping arenas would enjoy the bene t of higher accessibility and would be ready to pay high premiums. For corporates, having of ces near airports is not only strategic but also a matter of reputation. • Advertisements – Airports attract traf c not only from within the city/state but also outside. The passengers accessing the airport would have diverse pro les. Also, there is high visibility on traf c in a functional airport. Advertisers can not only target such passengers but also have higher certainty on number of eyeballs watching the advertisements. People also tend to have layovers and have bandwidth to look at the advertisement in the free time. What is the reason for not taking other revenue streams? Why not these factors? • Airlines – There are supply constraints around working with airlines be it in terms of slots or location or size. Incremental bene t if any may not be as high. Airlines anyway promote their offerings to increase passenger traf c. Passenger travelling decision is also based on affordability, accessibility, awareness and likeability which the airline would already be working on. Our effort would not create a huge impact. • Parking – Directly dependent on passenger traf c (similar argument as above). While one can enter into an arrangement with a cab aggregator (refer 3b above), this may not help beyond a point. • Vending machine – Price per product in a vending machine is low and therefore revenue accrued through this source would also be very low unless volumes are very high. Low price goods would also translate to lower margins. Not a major source of revenue in the rst place. Good, that’s about it. 72 fi fi fi fi fi fi fi fi fi fi Indian Institute of Management, Kozhikode FRAMEWORKS CASE INTERVIEWS GUESSTIMATES INDUSTRY ANALYSIS Indian Institute of Management, Kozhikode 73 Guesstimates : Water Consumption in Kozhikode in a day Estimate the water consumption in Kozhikode in 1 day? Preliminary Questions : Water Should I consider water intake alone? - Yes Should I include Industries? - Let's ignore that for now. Focus on the daily household consumption Can I neglect the effect of COVID-19? - Yes Low Consumption level 20% = 0.6 Mn - Population of Kozhikode= 3 million - 70% of the population comes under - - Approach : - Water intake happens through - direct water consumption, beverages- alcoholic & Nonalcoholic, and through food. Number of household = Population / Avg household size Consumption of water = Per meal water usage * Number of meals Indian Institute of Management, Kozhikode High Consumption level 20% = 0.6 Mn Non -Alcoholic Beverage Assumptions : drinking age group of 21-60. Average water consumption is 4L. Average household size is 4. Average alcoholic consumption is 0.75L for which 66% water is used I.e. 0.5L & average non-alcoholic consumption contain 50% water. 50% Males & 33.33% females consume alcohol in a day. Non alcoholic Consum. : < 21 yrs, 0.5 ltr ; 21-60 yrs, 1 ltr ; < 60 yrs 0.25 ltr Medium Consumption level 60% = 1.8 Mn Total Population =3 Mn. Age<21 (30%) = 0.9 Mn Age: 21-60 = 60%= 1.8 Mn Age > 60 = 10% = 0.3 Mn Beverage Age<21 (30%) Alcoholic Beverages Food No. Of Households 3Mn/4 = 0.75 Mn Men = 50% =1.05 Mn Legal Age >21 =70% = 2.1 Mn Water Consumption = 0.6 Mn *3L+ 1.8 Mn*4L + 0.6 Mn*5L = 12 Mn Lt. Alcoholic Beverage = (0.525 Mn +0.315)* 0.5L = 0.42 Mn Lt. Non Alcoholic Beverage = (0.9 Mn *0.5 L+ 1.8 Mn *1L + 0.3 Mn * 0.25) *(1/2) =2.325 Mn Lt. Household Water Consumption = 0.75 Mn*4L*3 Meals = 9 Mn Lt. Total Water intake by Kozhikode per day = 12+0.42+2.325+9 = 23.745 Mn Lt. Women = 50% =1.05 Mn 74 Guesstimates : Number of regular size Pizzas that Domino’s sells in India per day Estimate the number of Pizza’s that Domino’s sells in India per day. Assumptions : Consumption : Timings : - Domino’s Opening Hr = 11AM to 12 Midnight (13 Hrs) Peak Hour Timings Hours Lunch Time 12:30-2:30 2 Hrs Dinner Time 8:00-11:00 3 Hrs 5 Hrs Store : - Total Area of India = 3.2 Mn sq. Km. ~ 3 Mn Sq. Km. - 10 % of the area is urban. - Each 200 sq. Km. Of urban are is served by a single store - No of stores = (3,00,000 Sq. Km/200 Sq.Km.) = 1500 Stores 1. No of customers visiting onsite in peak hours is 15/Hr. And each customers consume a single regular pizza. 2. No of customers ordering for home delivery in peak hours is 20/Hr. And each customers consume a single regular pizza 3. Consumption during Non-Peak hours is 30% of Peak hours for dine In and 50% for Peak hours for Home delivery. Dine In (75+40) ~ 110 Non -Peak Hour Consumption = (N. Peak Hour * Consm. Rate) = (8*0.3*15) =40 Domino’s Pizza Single store Consumption: Peak Hour Consumption = (Peak Hour * Consm. Rate) = (5*20) =100 = (Dine In + Home Delivery) = (110+180) = 290 Pizzas /Store Total Consumption = (No.of Stores * Consm. Per store) = (1500*290) = 4,35,000 Pizzas Indian Institute of Management, Kozhikode Peak Hour Consumption = (Peak Hour * Consm. Rate) = (5*15) =75 Home Delivery (100+80)~180 Non Peak Hour Consumption = (N. Peak Hour * Consm. Rate) = (8*0.5*20) ~80 75 Guesstimates : Pizzas ordered in a day in India How many pizzas are ordered in a day in India ? 2 1 Rural Assumptions : - Population of India = 130 Cr Population 91 Cr 70% Urban 39 Cr 30% Upper Income Group 50% Cr 10% 5-60 Years 16 Cr 80% 3 4 < 5 Years 10% Percentage <5 Years 60+ Years Urban Percentage Rural Urban Population Population Lower Income Group 50% 5-60 Years 80% 60+ Years 10% 5-60 Years 80% - 16 Cr 10% 1. People in rural areas don’t consume pizza. 2. Pizza is luxury so people from the lower income groups can’t afford it. 3. People above 60 years old don’t consume pizza 4. People below 5 years, don’t consume pizza 5. A single pizza is shared by 3 people Don’t consume Pizza (30% ~ 4.8 Cr) Consumes Occasionally (30% ~ 4.8 Cr) No. Of Pizza Consumed in 3 months ~ 4.8 Cr/3 = 1.6 Cr Consumes frequently (30 % ~ 4.8 Cr) Consumes regularly (10% ~1.6 Cr) No. Of Pizza Consumed in 1 months ~ 4.8 Cr/3 = 1.6 Cr No. Of Pizza Consumed in 1 months ~ (1.6 Cr*2)/3 ~1Cr No. Of Pizza Consumed in a month ~ 1.5/3 = 0.5 Cr Pizza/mth ~ 3 Cr Pizza/day : 3 Cr/30 = 10 lakhs/ day Indian Institute of Management, Kozhikode 76 Guesstimates : Profit a typical Tea Stall makes in a day in Delhi How much pro t does a typical tea stall make in a day in Delhi? Assumptions : Consumption : Timings : - Domino’s Opening Hr = 6 AM to 8 PM (14 Hrs) Timings Demand High 6 AM- 10 AM 160 Low 10AM - 4 PM 120 High 4 PM - 8 PM 160 Total Demand ~ 450 Preparations : - In case of high demand, the capacity utilisation is full. Let us say the tea maker can make around 20 cups of tea at a time , that take around 30 minutes to be consumed by customers. So, the tea cups made in high demand are 40 Cups/hr. - In Noon, Let's say only 50% of capacity is utilised. So the tea maker makes only 20 cups/hr. fi Indian Institute of Management, Kozhikode fi 1. Consumption of tea across all region of Delhi are uniform. 2. Demand of tea is high in the morning & Evening, low in the afternoon. Raw Material Rate Used/Cup Cost for 450 cups per day 40/L 30ml (450*30*40)/1000 ~ 540 Tea Leaves 200/Kg 1 tea spoon/4 gm (450*’4*200)/1000 ~ 360 Sugar 20/Kg 1.5 tea spoon/4 gm (450*1.5*4*60)/1000 ~ 160 Masala Fixed Rs 2/Cup 2*450 ~ 900 Gas Cylinder Fixed ————— 100 Disposable Cup Fixed Rs 2/Cup 900 Total ~ Rs 3000 Milk Revenue from selling tea at the rate of Rs 10/Cup = 450*Rs 10 ~ Rs 4,500 Total Cost = Rs 3,000 Pro t = Rs 1,500 77 Guesstimates : Sanitary Napkin use over a month in India Estimate the number of women who use sanitary napkin in India over a month. Indian population: 130 crores Assumption: 50% are women = 65 crores Let’s say that the Age group of women who menstruate: 13-50 years % of women under the age group 13-50 years: Let’s say 25% women are below 13 years and 15% above 50 years (Statistictimes.com -> 25% upto 14 years) So, women under menstruation age: 60% of 65 crores = 39 crores Net market size: ~ 40 crores Therefore, the market size for sanitary napkins is 40 crores The ideal menstruation cycle is 28 days. Taking it 30 days, we assume there are 12 cycles in a year. Note: We consider 10% women have 10 cycles/year and 10% women who have 14 cycles/year. It again averages to 12 cycles/year. Now, to subtract the pregnant women, let’s say there are 2 crore births per year in India Note: The above assumption can be made based on discussion with the interviewer. It implies, 2 crore women are pregnant at some time in a year. Let’s assume these women were pregnant for 6 months in a year on average. So, out of 40 crores, 2 crore women have menstruation 6 times/year , So 1 crore women/ month And 38 crore women have normal menstruation, 12 times/year i.e. once per month In total, 39 Crores, is the new target market size. (Since, the no. is less, the interviewer may ask you to neglect) Indian Institute of Management, Kozhikode 78 Guesstimates : Sanitary Napkin use over a month in India Considering the urban-rural divide. 30% women in urban areas. Let’s say 75% of them can afford sanitary napkins, 40*0.3*0.75 = 9 crores 70% women in rural areas. Let’s say 25% of them can afford sanitary napkins, 40*0.7*.25 = 7 crores Total women who can afford = 16 crores Let’s say 10% of them prefer to use other options like menstrual cups, tampons,etc = 1.6 crores No. of women who use sanitary napkins per month = 16-1.6 crores = 14.4 crores Indian Population (3.2 Cr) <13 Years (25 %) Female (50%) 65 Cr Male (50%) 13-50 Years (60%) ~ 40 Cr >60 years (15%) Rural (70%) Urban (30%) Afford (75%) Indian Institute of Management, Kozhikode Can’t Afford (25%) Afford (75%) Can’t Afford 25%) 79 Guesstimates : How much a typical PVR Plaza of India make in a day. How much revenue does a typical PVR plaza of India make in a day ? Assumptions : Timings : - PVR Opening Hr = 9 AM to 3 AM (18 Hrs) Revenue : Movies and Food outlets are the only source revenue Capacity : PVR has 3 movie halls on average each hall can have 6 movies/day with an average capacity for 300 people. Variation Assumption : - The demand is not varying based on - type of movies. The demand is uniform on all days. Taking the price of all seats at the same Pricing Assumptions : Timings No. Of Slots Price/Ticket 9 AM-12 PM 1 100 12 PM - 6 PM 2 250 6 PM - 12 AM 2 400 12 AM - 3 AM 1 300 Revenue Assumptions : Revenue in Weekends : Fri-Sun Revenue in Weekdays : Mon-Thu Timings Capacity Revenue 9 AM-12 PM 35% 300*0.35*3*1*100 = 31,500 300*0.6*3*2*250 = 2,70,000 12 PM - 6 PM 70% 300*0.7*3*2*250 = 3,15,000 70% 300*0.7*3*2*400 = 5,04,000 6 PM - 12 AM 80% 300*0.8*3*2*400 = 5,76,000 50% 300*0.5*3*1*300 = 1,35,000 12 AM - 3 AM 60% 300*0.6*3*1*300 = 1,62,000 Capacity Revenue 9 AM-12 PM 25% 300*0.25*3*1*100 = 22,500 12 PM - 6 PM 60% 6 PM - 12 AM 12 AM - 3 AM Timings 9,31,500 10,84,500 Revenue from the Movie/Day = ( 9,31,500*4 + 1084500*3 ) / 7 = Rs. 9,97,072 Assuming 20% of people in each slot buy from PVR food outlet paying Rs. 300 on an average = [( Capacity on a week day *4*300 ) + ( Capacity on a day of a weekend *3*300)] /7 = (475200 +639900) /7 = 159300 Revenue Per Day = Rs 11,56,372 ~ Rs 12 Lakhs Indian Institute of Management, Kozhikode 80 Guesstimates : Number of COVID Vaccines required for frontline worker in Delhi Number of Covid vaccines required for frontline workers in your state (Delhi) . Frontline Workers are the personnel from State & Central Police Organisation : Armed forces ; Home Guards & Civil defence volunteers including Disaster Management volunteers & Municipal workers (Excluding HCW’s), Prison staff, Revenue of cials engaged in containment & surveillance activities, e.t.c. We are considering Medical staff & Police department Calculating Medical Staff Calculating personnel in Police Department Area (in sq km) 1500 Number of constituencies 70 Average number of police stations 2.5 (But in other states like Tamil Nadu, Haryana - the number of police stations are 2 on an average) Total number of police stations 175 Personnel in one department 100 (Considering more numbers in headquarters) Total police workers 17500 Assumptions: CRPF workers, traf c police, VVIP security, IB, Women helpline 52500 Total Area (in sq km) 1500 Number of Hospitals (Public+Private) in every 5 sq. Km. 2 In 1500 Sq. Km. 600 Av. Numbers of Doctors (/Including Nurses, helpers) in Hospitals 400 Total number of Doctors 240000 Number of Clinics in every 5 sq. Km. 4 In 1500 Sq. Km. 1200 Av. Numbers of Doctors (/Including Nurses, helpers) in Clinics 20 Total number of Doctors 24000 Total 264000 Rounding to 270000 270000 70000 Number of Covid vaccines required for a single dose 340000 81 fi fi Indian Institute of Management, Kozhikode Guesstimates : Number of deliveries done by Swiggy in a day Number of deliveries done by swiggy in a day Approach Assumptions : 1. Considering that only the urban population uses food delivery platforms in India 2. There is one restaurant/ eateries/ cloud kitchens etc. per 400 people and 30% of these restaurants are with aggregators like Dunzo, Swiggy, Zomato etc. and 20% is with Swiggy (exclusive and along with other aggregators) 3. For estimating number of delivery partners available on an average day, consider the average of peak (100%) and non-peak (50%) days is (1 lacs + 0.5 lacs)/2 = 75,000 . On a daily level, a delivery boy can take 2 deliveries in 60 minutes and work for 10 hours a day. Indian Population (130 Cr) 1 Rural (70% ~90 Cr ) = Nil Urban (30% ~40 Cr) 2 No. Of restaurants/eateries (1 per 400 people) =10 lacs No. Of restaurants/eateries with swiggy (20%) =2 lacs For every 2 restaurants there will be 1 delivery partner Total delivery partners = 1 Lac 3 75000 delivery partners available (Check assumptions) on an average day & working 10 hrs a day & deliver 2 orders in an hour (assumed) Total number of ideal deliveries =20 ( due to the constraints like idle time, traf c, fuel and vehicle related issues, consider 15 deliveries in a day. Total number of deliveries done by swiggy in a day = 15*75,000 = 11.25 lacs fi Indian Institute of Management, Kozhikode 82 Guesstimates : Number of Ac’s sold in a year in India To calculate the number of ACs sold in a year, do I need to consider both household and commercial demand - Consider only household demand, discount commercial demand for now Assumptions : Indian Population (120 Cr) Average life of AC = 10 years Growth Rate = 5% Approach No of Households (120/4 = 30 Cr) There can be two approaches for this guesstimate: Demand side i.e., population-based and Supply side i.e., number of manufacturers of air conditioners in India Urban (30% ~9 Cr) For this case, I would like to take a demand side approach which includes both new demand and replacement demand. New Demand = Growth rate * Market Size Replacement Demand = Current Market Size/Life Rural (70% ~21 Cr ) = Nil Income Wise Distribution Rural (~20 Cr) Urban (~10 Cr) Poor (20%) 4 Cr 2 Cr Middle Class (40%) 8 Cr 4 Cr Upper Middle Class (30%) 6 Cr 3 Cr Rich (10%) 2 Cr 1 Cr Rural Urban Nil Nil Middle Class 5%*8 = 0.4 Cr 30%*4 = 1.2 Cr Upper mIddle Class 30%*6 = 1.8 Cr 60%*3 = 1.8 Cr Rich 80%*2 = 1.6 Cr 100% *1 = 1 Cr Total Market Size for air conditioners = 7.8 cr New Demand = Growth rate * Market Size = 5%*7.8 = 0.39 crores Replacement Demand = Current Market Size/Life = 7.8/10 = 0.78 crores Total Demand = New Demand + Replacement Demand = 0.39 + 0.78 = 1.17 crores Penetration Rate Poor 83 FRAMEWORKS CASE INTERVIEWS GUESSTIMATES INDUSTRY ANALYSIS Indian Institute of Management, Kozhikode 84 Industry Analysis- Automotive 3% CAGR $2.8 Tn 3% CAGR Overview • India is 5th largest market globally in 2020 with ~3.5 Mn vehicles sold • World’s largest 2-wheeler, 3-wheeler and tractor manufacturer • Contributes ~7% towards India’s GDP and ~4% towards India’s exports • Generated employment for ~35 Mn people, contributed ~40% to global R&D • Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (SIAM) - Local industry body. $3.8 Tn Global Market Commercial Vehicle (CV ) 2 - Wheelers (2-W) $3.8 Tn Global Market Business Model Classi cation Passenger Vehicle (PV ) $1.1Bn 3 - Wheelers (3-W) Quadricycles Manufactured ~26 Mn vehicles during FY20 2-w & passenger cars ~81% and 13% market share response, generating overall sale of ~20.1 Mn vehicles in FY20 Passenger car sales dominated by small & mid-sized PV sales of 2.80 lakh units in Mar’21 vs 2.18 lakh units in Mar’20, a growth of ~28% Exported ~4.77 Mn vehicles in FY20 CAGR of 6.94% (FY16-20) 2-w comprises of ~74% of total vehicles exported, PV at 14.2%, 3-w at 10.5%, CV at 1.3% Manufacturing & Sale of vehicles Earning margin between the vehicle selling price and the overall cost in sourcing and assembling the components Vehicle sharing service – Commission based revenue generation Cost Drivers Vehicle subscriptions A type of subscription business model where a customer pays a periodic fee for the use of one or R&D cost Equipment/ Component purchase & assembly costs . more vehicles Technology integration & IT Infra costs After sales services – Providing warranty service, training or repair & maintenance services Marketing, Advertising & Promotion expenses PV Key Players Auto Component Supplier Original Equipment Manufacturer (OEM) Distributer Market Share* Customer After Sales Service fi Indian Institute of Management, Kozhikode Others Retail Outlets/ Resellers 50% 17.4% 7% 5.8% 15.6% CV Key Players Market Share^ Others 37.26% 29.4% 12.79% 5.12% 15.43% 85 Industry Analysis- Automotive Growth Drivers 2-W Key Player • • • • • • • Others 37.04% Market Share 25.58% 14.43% 11.97% 15.6% Availability of skilled labour at low cost Robust R&D centres Low-cost steel production Government support & initiatives Rise in middle class and young population Potential in shared mobility Local and foreign investment in ows • Low vehicle penetration compared to developed markets, expected to increase • Infrastructure development • Advancements in technologies • Increasing disposable income of people • Reducing gap between rural and urban cities • Favorable startup ecosystem spurring innovation Regulatory Environment FLI Market Share Motor Vehicles Act & relevant amendments 100% FDI allowed under automatic route (~$26 Bn investment has been made from Apr 2000-Mar 2021) FDI Production-Linked Incentive (PLI) Scheme (outlay ~INR 55,000+ Cr.) bolstering manufacturing capabilities export potential Goal to develop India as global manufacturing centre, R&D hub. Under NATRiP, Govt. planning to set up R&D centres (cost of ~$390 Mn) Risk & Challenges National Electric Mobility Mission Plan 2020 & Charging infrastructure guidelines Government schemes & Initiatives FAME - started in 2019 for promoting sales of EV, extended by 2 years to Mar 2024. FAME-II fund requirement of INR 10,000 Cr. approved for FY20-22. 11 cities shortlisted for intro of EVs in public transport systems Other Trends : • • • • • Govt. planning to set up incubation centre for start-ups working in EVs space fl fi fi Disruptive impact of technology – Could throw players off guard if not kept abreast Climate change accelerating adoption of EV, posing potential supply chain challenges for existing players Emerging Trends Indian EV market likely to increase at CAGR of ~36% till 2026 (India Energy Storage Alliance), expected to reach 6+ Mn unit annual sales by 2027 Growth of 20% in EV sales (excl. E-rickshaws), reached 1.56 lakh units in FY20 driven by 2-w Bharat Stage VI and future norms Voluntary Vehicle Fleet Modernisation Programme (V-VMP) GST rates’ impact which could contribute to increase/reduction in overall cost structure Emergence of Mobility as a service and shared mobility Innovation towards Ethanol based vehicles and their roll-out Indian Institute of Management, Kozhikode Competition from existing players and potentially from global digital giants Dynamic regulatory environment Transitioning towards electric vehicles: CEEW Centre for Energy Finance study highlighted $206 Bn opportunity for electric vehicles in India by 2030, EV industry expected to create 5 Cr. direct and indirect jobs by 2030 Rapidly evolving customer expectations – Shifting preference from owning a vehicle to on-demand mobility as a service 2- and 3-wheelers expected to contribute majorly towards higher electri cation of the vehicles Indian EV nance industry expected to reach INR 3.7 lakh Cr. (~$50 Bn) in 2030 (NITI Aayog and Rocky Mountain Institute), EV battery market projected to expand at CAGR of 30% Autonomous Vehicle Ecosystem (Platforms, Sensors, Data, Mapping etc.) Increasing digitisation in dealership models Growing used car market, due to shifting consumer preferences Uptick in trend of telematics Advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS) and penetration of other technologies 86 Industry Analysis- Aviation 12% CAGR India Aviation Passenger Traf c Overview Overview 17% • Indian passenger traf c stood at 341.05 million in FY20, CAGR rate of 11.13% between the year FY16-20 • By 2024, Civil aviation market is projected to be 3rd-largest world’s aviation market in terms of air passengers • As of 2020, India has 153 operational airports and aviation industry contributes around $72 billion to GDP • To cater to the rising air traf c, GOI plans to increase operational airports to 190-200 from 153 by Year 2040 • Airport Authority of India owns 125 Airports, 78% of Domestic and 22% of International Passenger traf c share • The number of complaints for every 10,000 passengers carried for the month of Jan 2020 was around 0.62. $341 Mn $226 Mn Air Passenger Tra c - India Scheduled Air Transport Based on Transport Classi cation Domestic & Int. Airlines Non-Scheduled Air Transport Charter & AirTaxi Operations Air Cargo Services Transportation of Cargo & Mail Inbound Logistics Supply chain, Selection of route, Passenger service system, Flight crew scheduling, Facilities Planning, Fuel Ticket Counter Operations, Gate Operations, Aircraft Operations, Baggage Handling, Ticket Of ces Cost Drivers Cost Drivers Passenger Ticket Sales On-board passenger services like meals Cargo and freight charges Off-board services like seat booking Low-Cost Carrier (LCC) Frequent Flyer Programs, Travel Agent Programs, Promotions and Advertising Services Feedback, Complaint Redressal, Lost Baggage Service, Baggage Tracking System Full-Service Carrier (FSC) • Minimises operation costs to offer the cheapest tickets possible. While low ticket prices are a main characteristic of LLCs, they shouldn’t be confused with FSC economy class tickets. • Full service airlines charge a at ticket price, and theoretically, everything is included, although that’s fraying a bit around the edges at some full-service airlines. • What makes LCCs “low-cost” comes from how they operate.LCCs skip big expensive airports for secondary airports, frequently located further out from the cities they y to. • It’s a portfolio approach to revenue generation that is designed to protect the airline should one aspect of its operations underperform across a period of time. 87 fi fi fl fi ffi fl fi fi Marketing & Sales Classi cation Indian Institute of Management, Kozhikode fi International Business Model Revenue Streams fi Baggage System, Flight Connections, Rental Cars, Passenger Hotel reservation systems Domestic Business Model • Aircraft maintenance and purchase • On ground Cost of handling passengers, cargo and aircraft. • Labour and fuel cost • Airport charges • Advertising & Selling expenses • • • • Outbound Logistics Operations 83% Industry Analysis- Aviation Major Player Market Share Growth Drivers Growth Drivers GOI is planning to invest US$ 1.83 Bn for development of airport infrastructure along with aviation navigation services by 2026 48% 17% India’s aviation industry is expected to witness Rs. 35,000 crore (US$ 4.99 billion) investment in the next four years Regional Connectivity Scheme (RCS) will Boost air connectivity to smaller cities & NE states. 12% Government Initiatives 7% 100% FDI allowed in MRO for maintenance and repair organisations via automatic route 10% Regulatory Environment Challenges Fuel Price Over Capacity Labour Unrest Lack of Manpower Fuel price remains the biggest concern of the airline industry. High costs have led to many airlines imposing fuel surcharges on customers. Rock bottom fares due to overcapacity of airlines have directly lead to a major loss of revenue among the airline carriers. Lack of Manpower led to a push of working above standard working norms leading to Pilot and staff walkouts resulting in losses Growth in industry is quick it is not able to maintain itself with an appropriate number of staff for smooth operations in Maintenance. fl fi fl fi fi fl fi fi Indian Institute of Management, Kozhikode Rising disposable incomes will aid passenger traf c growth in the coming years. Government lowered the custom duty from 2.5% to 0% on components or parts for manufacturing of aircrafts by public sector units of the Ministry of Defence. Huge Potential of increase in penetration among the growing middle-class population Airport Authority of India plans to abolish royalty & offer steep discounts in lease rent to encourage MRO units to set up facilities at its airports. Air travel penetration is less than 3% in India and stands at 0.1 trips per person per year compared to 2 in the US 100% FDI allowed in green eld and brown eld projects for Airports Emerging Trends Emerging Trends Increase in shorter, more cost-effective regional ights to enable faster and better door-to-door transport of people and goods Push towards carbon neutrality through a combination of Carbon-Offset Programs and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) The idea of ying taxis to get rid of the road traf cs, congestions and take the passengers to the terminals quickly and conveniently. Wi at 40000 ft – seamless In ight Connectivity to digitise the experience and keep the passengers stay relevant. Offering personal training to non- experienced mechanics to attract young people to work in the aviation maintenance industry 88 Industry Analysis- Banking 9% CAGR • • • • • • 2020 2016 $2.2 Tn $1.6 Tn Total Asset Bank - India Overview Overview The Indian banking system consists of 12 PSUs, 22 private, 46 foreign, 56 regional rural banks The distribution channel of the Indian banking industry is 14.72 branches per 100,000 adults As of November 2020, the total number of ATMs in India increased to 209,282. The big four banking rms (in terms of assets) in India are SBI, HDFC Bank, ICICI and PNB Bank credit was the most pro table segment in quite a fragmented banking industry in 2020 There were 1.89 deposit accounts per adult, but only a minority of people possesses a bank account Marketing Investment Deposits, Securitizaton, Credits Acquisition, Offering, Multi tech Management Advertising, Branding, Sales Support Transactions Products Sales Funding Services Credits, Securities, Financial products , Corporate Investments Account Management, Asset Management, Issuance/IPO, M&A, Advisory Reserve Bank of India Commercial Banks Nationalised 16% 9% Payment, Trading, Clearing Settlement, Custody • • • • • Cost of Borrowing Operation Expense Risk Management & Compliance Cost Provision & Write offs Marketing Expenses Revenue Streams Revenue Streams • • • • Intrest Earnings Bank Credits Trading Assets Inter-bank loans PV Key Players Cooperative Banks Private ShortTerm Development Banks LongTerm Exim Agricultural Credit fi Indian Institute of Management, Kozhikode fi 41% Market Player Classi Classication cation fi 34% Regional Rural PSU Private Foreign CostDrivers Driver Cost Value Chain fi Breakup of Banks in India 2020 Urban Credit Industrial Market Share* 24% 7.7% 6.3% 5% Deposits 24% 8.5% 5.7% 4.7% Agricultural Credits 23% 9.6% 6.3% 5.5% 89 This is a new model of bank operates at a small scale, It can carry out most banking operations but can't advance loans or issue credit cards NBFC’s Banks setup with an objective of furthering nancial inclusion by primarily undertaking basic banking activities to un-served and underserved sections Payment Banks These do not have to comply with any RBI Regulations Small Finance Bank These are accounted for in RBI Act and governed by general rules like CRR Requirements Scheduled Bank • Rising Rural Perception • Increase in working population • Growing disposable incomes • Government push towards nancial Inclusion • Accessibility to digital banking Non-Scheduled Bank Types Types of Bank of Banks : : Growth Growth Drivers Drivers These are accounted for in RBI Act and governed by general rules like CRR Requirements Emerging Emerging Trends Trends Risk Risk & & Challenges Challenges Losses due to Low Interest Rate : Decreasing pro ts for industry players due to large reduction in interest rates by central banks, with an aim to increase borrowing during 2020; this alone was not enough to offset the losses experienced due to the ultra-low interest. High costs of compliance : Banking being a highly regulated industry, banks must meet a set capital adequacy ratios and maintain morality and transparency in terms of their practices, which entail high costs of compliance Frauds impact consumer con dence : In 2012-2017, Indian banks faced nearly 23,000 cases of fraud, with total losses estimated at $10.8bn. These Issues impact consumer con dence and reputation of banks AI solutions will enable smarter lending and will help nancial institutions move past credit scores based on credit repayment history and utilize alternate data instead. Customer experience (CX) and Operational ef ciency will be important drivers of digital transformation as COVID-19 has reshaped customer expectations Banking-as-a-service (BaaS) which is an end-to-end process that enables third parties to directly connect with banks’ systems will emerge so that they can build products on top of the banks’ regulated infrastructure. Information security will become of paramount importance due to The growing popularity of remote operations, resulting in an increased exchange of sensitive information, between banks and customers on the cloud. Blockchain technology is emerging as a critical enabler of information security and can be leveraged to verify customer data at multiple touchpoints. Personal touch will be key in maintaining valuable relationships alongside the evolving technologies. Going forward, any organization that will have both the capabilities of being ‘high-tech’ and ‘high-touch’ would be a winner. Lack of product differentiation: The minimal product differentiation in the banking industry makes it dif cult for banks to retain their customers. Investment: The amount of investment in infrastructure, particularly in distribution networks (e.g. setting up a branch network) and IT systems, as well as the marketing expenditure for brand building is signi cant, even for established rms Government Initiatives Government Initiatives Government has smoothly carried out consolidation, reducing the number of public sector banks by eight. To maintain regulatory capital requirements and nancial growth the Government of India will invest Rs. 48,239 crore in 12 PSUs in FY20 fi fi fi fi fi fi fi fi fl Indian Institute of Management, Kozhikode fi fi fi fi Industry Analysis- Banking Government’s agship nancial inclusion drive Pradhan Mantri Jan Dhan Yojana (PMJDY) reached 41.75 crore and deposits stood at more than Rs. 1.37 lakh crore as of Jan, 2021 The Finance Ministry announced its plan to infuse Rs. 14,500 crore as capital infusion in PSUs in the 4th quarter of FY21 90 Industry Analysis- E-Commerce $4.89 Tn 2021 • APAC, North America (NA) led brick-and-mortar & e-commerce sales, followed by Western Europe (WE) • Due in part to China's dominance, APAC gained signi cant lead (62.6% share) [NA (19.1%), WE (12.7%)] • Indian e-commerce market expected to grow at 27% CAGR (2019-24), projected to reach $99 Bn by 2024, $200 Bn by 2026, Grocery & fashion/apparel would be the key drivers • Indian e-commerce orders’ volume rose by 36% in Q4’20, Personal care, beauty, wellness - Bene ciary. $6.39Tn Global Market 27% CAGR(19-24) Overview Overview 9.33% CAGR 2024 Consumer Electronics Apparel Furniture & Others Food & Grocery Business to Business B2B 2020 2024 Indian Market Jewellery Consumer to Consumer C2C 7% 7% 6% 40% Consumer to Business C2B 40% Government to Business G2B Drivers Cost Driver Drop shipping – Not required to maintain inventory to sell. It purchases the product from a 3rd party and had it shipped directly to the customer Private labeling – Outsource manufacturing and sell products under their brand name Warehousing – Purchase products from manufacturers/ wholesalers, maintains inventory in their warehouse and facilitate delivery White labeling – Purchase generic products made for various companies and sell under their brand name D2C – Selling products to consumers directly, without any 3rd party middlemen involvement Subscription Service – Deliver products against periodic subscription by users Business to Consumer B2C Government to Consumer G2C $99 Tn Business Model Business Model Classi cation cation Classi By Participants $30 Bn IT Infrastructure and Platform support cost Logistics & Distribution cost Inventory Management costs Payment processing expenses Marketing, Advertising & Promotion expenses Value Chain B2C E-Commerce Platform Distribution & Logistics Manufacturer/Supplier/ Wholesaler/Retailer E-Commerce Platform Market Share* 3.3% 1.9% 91 fi fi 4.7% B2B E-Commerce Platform Indian Institute of Management, Kozhikode fi 31.2% Customer Value Added Services, Customer Services fi 31.9% Industry Analysis- E-Commerce Key E-Commerce platforms across segments Key Metrics Growth Drivers Gross Merchandise Value (GMV Travel, Mobility Ola, Uber, MakeMyTrip,, Cleartrip, Goibibo Logistics BlackBuck, Delhivery, Rivigo, Shadowfax No. of users Social Comm. Meesho, DealShare, Mall91, BulBul Average Revenue per User (ARPU) Gaming Dream11, Mobile Premium League, Octro Conversion rate, Retention rate • Rise in consumers in middle income • Increase in video consumption, social media usage driven by cheaper mobile data • Reducing urban-rural divide • 3/5 orders from tier-2 and smaller towns, target of ~200 Mn online shoppers by 2025 • Digital payment infrastructure development • Government support & initiatives Regulatory RegulatoryEnvironment Environment 100% FDI allowed in B2B ecommerce, 100% FDI under automatic route in marketplace model of ecommerce FDI FLI In Union Budget 2020-21 - allocated $1.24 Bn to BharatNet Project providing broadband services to 150,000gram panchayats Market Share E-commerce Rules 2020 - effective competition and ef ciency in e-commerce market by highlighting R&R of marketplace and sellers RiskRisk & Challenges & Challenges Government e-Market Place (GeM) National Retail Policy Government schemes & Initiatives • Growth of logistics, warehousing facilities • Shifting consumer preference, especially after Covid-19 induced lockdown • Rise in digital and technological acceptance • Consumers started experiencing bene ts convenience, discounts, time saving • Favorable startup ecosystem spurring innovation • Local and foreign investment in ows Online security breach & cybersecurity issues Competition from digital giants venturing into the space and brick and mortar retailers Digital payment & 5G support Digital India, Start-up India, Skill India, Innovation Fund Consumer Protection Rules, 2020 Data Privacy concerns – customer trust issues High dependence on platform & underlying technology Country speci c concerns around the future dominance of some major players Emerging EmergingTrends Trends Omnichannel Presence – Of ine channels embracing online medium; online platforms opening experience stores Rise in corporate India’s ambition to build “Superapp”. Superapps ~4-7x ARPU than single purpose e-commerce Technological innovations – analytics driven customer engagement, personalized digital advertising Indian e-commerce $10 Bn investments in last decade ~60-70% of total PE/VC investments. 11 out of 52 unicorns in India are e-commerce companies D2C – With increasing brand reach and rising traction in niche product categories. D2C is $100 Bn+ market opportunity by 2025. India houses > 800 D2C brands Increasing penetration and acceptance of M-commerce and Social commerce. Social commerce GMV ~$ 2 Bn in 2020, to reach $20 Bn by 2025, and to $70 Bn by 2030 Increase in growth of Hyperlocal delivery market, last-mile delivery. Online grocery, epharmacy, social commerce expected to boom in 2021 RPA, AI, IoT, Cybersecurity will be the key focus area for the industry incumbents, amid increasing competition in the space fi fl fl fi fi Indian Institute of Management, Kozhikode 92 Industry Analysis- Energy Overview Overview 3.8% CAGR $1.34 Tn 2021 $1.53 Tn 2026 Global Market • • • • • India Energy Mix^ India is 3rd largest producer & 2nd largest consumer of electricity globally India’s installed power capacity of 373 GW (Oct 2020), renewable capacity 94 GW (Feb 2021) Fossil fuels like coal, oil & natural gas, dominates global energy mix - constituting over 65% 70% of India’s electricity generation from thermal (234 GW), coal contributing ~86%# ~50% of India’s power to be generated by renewables by 2030 (Central Electricity Authority) Conventional Wind Oil & Natural Gas Solar Non- Conventional Bio-Waste Hydro Nuclear Natural Gas Oil Global Energy Consumption Mix by 2050* Hydroelectricity Nuclear energy Renewable Energy Coal Electricity Generation Hydro Nuclear CostDriver Drivers Cost Energy generation & supply Contract with transmission companies or businesses (for direct captive use) - xed charges per unit consumption Energy generation & storage on site Energy supply on customers’ site. Example, solar cells, wind turbines, bio waste plant directly supplying power and providing excess storage capabilities Energy infrastructure providers Providing infrastructure facilities to generation companies, corporates, households etc. Energy as a service – Customers pay for energy service without any capital investment – subscription for electric devices Value ValueChain Chain Evaluation & Processing RE Business Model Business Model Classi cation Classi cation Coal & Lignite Thermal Infrastructure Setup Cost Equipment, machinery costs Running expenses – Manpower etc. Repair and Maintenance costs License and other regulatory expenses Key Player Players Transmission Distribution Power Players Customer Renewable Energy Infrastructure, Energy Services, Electricity devices & Appliances fi fi fi 93 000 Installed Energy Capacity in India (Feb’21) Central Growth Drivers Drivers Growth 25.37% 27.33% State Private 47.30% Private State Central • Infrastructure development • Advancements in technologies • Climate change driven shift towards renewable sources of energy • Changing lifestyle & preference for convenience • Reducing gap between rural and urban cities • • • • • Rise in demand for electricity Changing mix of energy consumption Increasing per capita usage of energy Government support & initiatives Soaring demand from the industrial and domestic sectors • Local and foreign investment in ows • Favourable startup ecosystem spurring innovation Risk & Challenges Risk & Challenges RegulatoryEnvironment Environment Regulatory FDI Budget One Nation, One Grid 100% FDI allowed in power sector for generation (except atomic power), transmission, distribution (~$15 Bn investment has been made from Apr 2000-Sep 2020) Union Budget 2020-21 allocation of ~$42 Bn – results-based, new power distribution sector scheme over next 5 years Restricted supply of raw material - erratic domestic supply of coal, uctuations in international coal prices, shortage of natural gas Saubhagya Scheme Government schemes & Initiatives Ujala Scheme Weak infrastructure of the transmission and distribution (T&D) system - leading to transmission and distribution losses Dynamic regulatory environment – Tariff structure, PPAs Ujwal Discoms Assurance Yojana (UDAY) NIP National Infrastructure Pipeline: Energy sector projects accounting for ~24% of total Capex of INR 111 lakh Cr. Transitioning towards Non-Conventional source of Energy Target of 175 GW renewable energy setup by 2022, of 450 GW of installed renewable energy capacity by 2030 – about 280 GW (over 60%) expected from solar National Electricity Policy (NEP) 2021 Climate change accelerating shift in energy mix from traditional to non-conventional sources, posing potential supply chain challenges for existing players Emerging Trends Emerging Trends Solar energy – largest renewable power source in FY 2021 with installed capacity of ~40 GW vs wind energy having installed capacity of 39 GW in 2021 Development of ‘green city’ in every Indian state, powered by renewable energy: - Mainstream environment-friendly power through solar rooftop systems on all houses, By 2029-30, the share of renewable energy generation increase from 18% to 44%, thermal expected to reduce from 78% to 52% fl Indian Institute of Management, Kozhikode fi fl Industry Analysis- Energy India’s rst renewable energy InvIT in 2021 - KKR backed Virescent Renewable Energy Trust - Solar parks on city’s outskirts, - Waste to energy plants, - Electric mobility-enabled public transport systems 94 Industry Analysis- FMCG Urban Rural 45% Overview Overview 55% ` Rural Urban Revenue FY 19- India • • • • • FY19 Segment Wise Revenue Global FMCG market size valued at $10,020bn in 2017, projected to grow by 5.4% to $15,361.8bn by 2025, In India it is expected to grow at a CAGR of 23.15% to reach US$ 103.70 bn by FY21 from $ 68.38 bn in FY18 It is the 4th largest sector in the Indian Economy & India is likely to be the 5th largest FMCG market by 2025 In the last few years, the FMCG market has grown at a faster pace in rural India compared with urban India The rural market reached US$ 23.63 bn in FY18, and it is expected to grow to US$ 220 billion by 2025. 9% 27% Household & Personal Care Tobacco products 45% Food & Beverages 19% Health care Business BusinessModel Model Classi cation Food & Beverage 19% Healthcare 31% Based on Products Household & Personal Care 50% Cost Driver Cost Drivers • • • • • • Logistics Packaging Commissions Employee Costs Marketing costs Promotions and discounts Revenue Driver Revenue Streams • Sale to end customers • Corporate tie-ups • Occasion based offers - Bundled sale fi Indian Institute of Management, Kozhikode Business Models Modern Trade Traditional Trade Traditional trade builds on interpersonal relations between the customers and the retailers. Traditional trade is less organised than modern trade and is more likely to run out of stock or push alternative products to customers. Eg : Kirana Stores Modern trade outlets are chains or groups of businesses. Retail operations are more planned andoperations use a more organised approach to inventory management, merchandising and logistics management eg hypermarkets, supermarket chains and mini-markets Distribution Channels Manufacturing Online Trade Online Marketplace allows the customers to search, select and purchase the products, services and information remotely over the Internet and get it delivered at their home. Eg : JioMart, Amazon Pantry Retail Chain Like Super Markets Marketing Agents Wholesalers / Distributors Unorganised Retailers Customers Public Canteens/ Government Purchases 95 Industry Analysis- FMCG MarketPlayers Players Market Rural consumption will increase, due to combination of increasing incomes and higher aspiration levels, there will be an increased demand for branded products in rural India Easy Access Low penetration levels of branded products in categories like instant foods will attract investors as the FMCG products have demand throughout the year. Rural Consumption Organised sector growth is expected to grow with increased level of brand consciousness. Growth in modern retail will augment the growth of organised FMCG sector. Increased Penetration Organised Market Growth Drivers Growth Drivers Internet and different channels of sales has made the accessibility of desired product to customers more convenient at required time and place Major Players Market Share 14% 12% 3% 3% ROE 82% 23% 102% 32% Inventory Turnover 14% 6% 10% 16% Challenges Emerging Trends Emerging Trends Brand Consciousness Organised sector is expected to grow as the share of unorganised FMCG market has seen a fall with increased level of brand consciousness. E-Commerce Focus on strengthening ecommerce engagement, around 72% Indian consumers are most likely to shop online locally for premium products Smart Packaging Packaging used to stimulate consumer engagement, provide a customised experience, and boost value and service. eg Presence of QR code Customer Experience With the growing demand for convenience, companies strive to improve customer experiences with help of AR,VR and Gami cation Increasing challenge to balance market penetration and logistics cost as in order to increase penetration among consumers, companies offers small pack sizes. However smaller pack sizes mean higher packaging and logistics costs. Non-availability of robust Infrastructure of Cold chains and continuous power adversely affect certain product segments dependent on it eg : Ice cream market. As logistics service providers are not cost effective and not in a position to offer economies of scale, most companies manage their own logistics. Dealing with Counterfeits products which accounts for loss of sale worth more than Rs 300 billion for the FMCG sector Government Initiatives Government Initiatives Food Security Bill : FSB reduces prices of food grains for Below Poverty Line (BPL) households, allowing them to spend resources on other goods and services, including FMCG products. This is expected to trigger higher consumption spends, particularly in rural India, which is an important market for most FMCG companies. fi Indian Institute of Management, Kozhikode SETU SCHEME : Government has initiated Self Employment and Talent Utilisation (SETU) scheme to boost young entrepreneurs. Government has invested US$ 163.73 million for this scheme. Relaxation of License Rules : Industrial license is not required for almost all food and agro-processing industries, barring certain items such as beer, potable alcohol and wines, cane sugar and hydrogenated animal fats and oils as well as items reserved for exclusive manufacture in the small-scale sector. 96 Industry Analysis- Healthcare 8.9 % CAGR 2018 • • • • • $11.9 Tn $8.5 Tn Global Market 39 % CAGR Overview Overview 2022 Indian Hospital industry ~80% of total healthcare market, $132 Bn by 2023 – CAGR of 16-17% Indian Digital healthcare INR 884.5 Bn by 2025 from INR 144.59 Bn in 2019, CAGR of 33.92% Indian Telemedicine market projected to reach $5.4 Bn by 2025 – growing at 31% CAGR National Digital Health Blueprint can provide bene ts of ~$200 Bn over next 10 years India’s healthcare advantage lies in its skilled manpower and cost competitiveness $194 Bn 2020 Business Model $372 Bn Indian Market 2024 Cost Drivers Classi cation Healthcare delivery – Hospitals, clinics, nursing home charging patients for the healthcare services – consultancy, diagnosis, treatment, surgery etc. Primary Biotechnology Secondary Healthcare Delivery Hospitals E-Pharmacy – Delivering medicines and healthcare supplies, earning margins over cost of procurement. Offers subscription services as well Pharmaceuticals Tertiary Diagnostics Biotechnology – Technology breakthrough resulting in patentable drugs which can provide revenue streams over the tenure of the patent Operational expenses – Professional fees, support staff R&D cost, clinical research expenses etc. Medical Tourism – Providing patients with opportunity to receive quality medical services in foreign countries at reasonable cost as compared to developed markets Medical Tourism Medical Devices Value Chain Licenses and other regulatory expenses Key players Healthcare Delivery Institute Hospital Pharma Companies 3rd Party Administrator Insurance Companies Hospitals Clinics Equipment suppliers Pharma Customer/Patient Diagnostic Chain fi Indian Institute of Management, Kozhikode fi Infrastructure setup cost Equipment, machinery, medical supplies’ cost Telemedicine Home Healthcare Medical College & Training Institute Telemedicine – Charging for the tele consultation, home care services 97 Industry Analysis- Healthcare Key Statistics & Facts Key Statistics & Facts 5 Beds/ 10,000 Indians 155/167 Rank Globally 8.6 Doctors/ 10,000 Indians Life Expectancy 69.7 Years GrowthDrivers Drivers Growth • About 60% of hospitals are in cities, where only 32% of India’s population resides • 70,000 Ayushman Bharat centres are operational in India – providing primary healthcare services • Cost of surgery in India is ~1/10th of the cost in USA or European nations • Non-Communicable Diseases account for ~50% of India’s disease burden and 60% of all deaths • Growing middle class along with rising burden of new diseases • Rise in demand for affordable & quality healthcare • Better health awareness • Rise in medical tourism • Advancements in technologies – AI, IoT, RPA • Spending on medical Infra ~$200 Bn by 2024 • Increasing access to insurance • Local and foreign investment in ows Risk Risk&&Challenges Challenges RegulatoryEnvironment Environment Regulatory FDI % of GDP National AYUSH Mission 100% FDI - automatic route - Green eld projects. Upto 100% FDI - government route - Brown eld projects. FDI in ows for drugs & pharma sector $17.7 Bn (Apr’00-Dec’20) Public expenditure on healthcare 1.2% of GDP. GOI to increase spending on public health to 2.5% of GDP by 2025 Vision 2035: Public Health Surveillance in India Government schemes & Initiatives High premium is putting insurance out of reach from many people of the country Availability of quality healthcare professionals remain a challenge – we have ~1/5th of cardiologists, paediatricians, and clinical psychologists than required Ayushmann Bharat National Digital Health Blueprint Covid • Life expectancy projected to exceed 70 years • Indian companies getting higher ANDA approvals • Favorable startup ecosystem spurring innovation • Government support & initiatives Govt. allocated INR 35,000 crore for Covid-19 vaccines in 2020-21. Approved vaccines: Covishield, Covaxin, Sputnik V, in pipeline: Covovax, Biological E etc. National Health Mission, Mission Poshan 2.0 Patient experience has not been up to the mark owing to several reasons like doctor’s absenteeism, wrong diagnosis, exorbitant expenses etc. Infrastructure ramp up remains a major challenge; private and organized players could aid in improving the state, given the support from concerned authorities EmergingTrends Trends Emerging Usage of AI for providing the best treatment to patients and for maintaining health records. AI-based drug discovery, clinical decision support, genetic analytics, healthcare administration, personal health Indian Bio-tech sector is presently around $70.2 Bn and is expected to reach $150 Bn by 2025. Comprises of: •Bio-Pharma •Bio-Services/CRO •Bio-Informatics •Bio-Agri •Bio-Industrial Surgical robotics market in India is expected to reach $350 Mn by 2025 – growing at a CAGR of 20% fi fi fl fl Indian Institute of Management, Kozhikode Plans to create 1 Mn skilled healthcare providers by 2022 •Emergence and growth of new-age health tech startups, focusing on telemedicine, e-pharmacy, diagnostics etc. •No. of PE/VC deals in health-tech sector increased to 34 in 2020 from 15 in 2016 ~$200 Bn is expected to be spent on medical infrastructure by 2024 •Telemedicine could replace ~50% of in-person outpatient consultations by 2025 •Data and analytics-enabled apps could improve diagnosis, help people in tracking their vitals etc. Life expectancy projected to exceed 70 years, paving way for more healthcare services 98 Industry Analysis- Hospitality 6 % CAGR $3.5 Tn 2020 M&E Sector - India No of Jobs in Tourism Sector Overview Overview • • • • • • $5.3 Tn 2025 India ranked 10th among 185 countries in terms of travel & tourism’s total contribution to GDP in 2019 Hospitality sector primarily thrives on tourism, an important source of foreign exchange and employment It continues to be one of the worst hit, yet-to-recover and in survival-mode industry due to covid-19. Revenue in India tanked by 30.3% in the Q4 2020-21 after plunging by over 50% in the quarters of 20-21. Hospitality contributed nearly 13.68 lakh crore to the GDP in FY19 as per WTTC’s Economic Impact, Hospitality industry is expected to grow at a rate of 6.9% to reach Rs 35 lakh crore by 2029 Recreational establishments focus on relaxation and entertainment of guests. Properties such as movie theatre or amusement parks fall into this category Travel & Tourism Recreation Food & Beverages Lodging The largest sector in hospitality, is made up of properties delivering food, snacks, drinks for immediate consumption, on- or off-the premises. It comprises means of transportation to move travellers from one place to another. Airlines, cruise ships, buses, trains fall into this category. Business Models : Business Model Company owned, Company operated – COCO Model Company owned, Franchise operated – COFO Model Franchise owned, Company operated – FOCO Model oCOCO, in this the company owns, makes investments and also operates the entire business at a particular location. •COFO here the company does capital expenditure, site selection etc. And the franchisee takes care of additional operational costs like salary, electricity, and sundry expenses oThe franchisee owns the property and does the other capital expenditures. While, company manages the store/outlet operations helps them to manage quality. fi Indian Institute of Management, Kozhikode FY 2020 $ 53 Mn FY 2029 Government Initiatives Classi cation of Major Segments in Hospitality : Luxury palaces, boutique hotels, bed and breakfasts, camping grounds, hostels… the lodging sector covers an extremely diverse spectrum of properties. $ 39 Mn Under Swadesh Darshan Scheme ministry of tourism are developing several theme-based tourist circuits. Ministry of Tourism developed SAATHI (System for Assessment, Awareness & Training for Hospitality Industry) Cost Drivers Franchise owned, Franchise operated – FOFO Model •In this model, the company gives its brand name. The franchise provides for capital , expenses, and manages everything within the guidelines set by the company. • • • • Maintenance cost Upgradation cost Fixed rental expenses Employee expenses Revenue RevenueStreams Streams • • • • Accommodation Banquet services Loyalty programs Food and beverage The Ministry of Tourism launched the NIDHI portal to understand the geographical spread of the hospitality sector, its size, structure and existing capacity in the country The Ministry has set up Hospitality Development & Promotion Board to monitor and facilitate hotel project clearances/approvals. 99 Competitive Landscape Competitive Landscape Growth Drivers Increasing disposable incomes to allow consumers to increase spending on recreational Hospitality sector is highly fragmented industry . Economic Growth . Niche Offering Niche offerings such as medical tourism & eco-tourism expected to create more demand Geographical Diversity India offers geographical and cultural diversity, attractive beaches, 37 World Heritage sites, 80 national parks and 441 sanctuaries is a major crowd-puller for tourists across the globe. Travel & Tourism The food services industry is again a largely unorganised sector apart from a few Quick Service Restuarant(QSR) brands like Domino's, Café Coffee Day, McDonald's,etc. Increasing popularity of Hospitality apps and social Hospitality to propel growth. Travel and Tourism is moving towards digital and online travel agents like MakeMyTrip, Goibibo, Yatra, Cleartrip, both to book tickets, destinations, hotel rooms and leisure activities. Recreational & Leisure Lodging Dominated by unorganised sector & numerous non-star hotels, guest houses, inns lodges etc. The Leading organised hotel groups are Marriott, Taj Group, Raddison, ITC and OYO, AirBnB. Food Services activities such as Hospitality Changing Consumer Hospitality Habits Inox Leisure (premier multiplex chain), Delta Corp(Casino), and Future Gaming And Hotel Services (lottery company) are some key leisure and entertainment players in India. Challenges Challenges High xed cost industry with high operating as well as nancial leverage makes it dif cult to manage cash ow in case of negative impacts. The traditional players need to upgrade constantly in order to survive as Innovative new techoriented start-ups such as Airbnb, OYO Rooms etc. are giving tough competition. Business travel driven revenue (cashcow) faces a possible structural long term shift as Covid induced restrictions made people travel less and do most of their work online. Tourism industry major part of hospitality industry is known to exhibit seasonality thus it has a direct impact on the Hospitality sector. The industry involves employees/workers to work day/night and even on weekends along with lower wages leads to shortage of Skilled labour and High rate of attrition. Emerging Trends Restricted Corporate Level Organizations, going forward are likely to embrace a hybrid work environment and Corporate travel is expected to permanently remain below the pre pandemic levels Rise of E-Tourism Ancillary Revenue Hospitality supply in Tier II and Tier III locations will increase based on the untapped potential of the domestic commercial and leisure demand The internet has modernized the face of travel industry and its impact on the tourists. People prefer online bookings, reservations and virtual tours now-a-days fl fi Indian Institute of Management, Kozhikode fi fi Industry Analysis- Hospitality MBA & Rebranding to gain Momentum Last 5 years 230+ hotels have been converted from a standalone property to a brand. This is expected to gain considerable momentum as businesses aim to tide over the current downturn. Potential of Tier - II & Tier -III Ancillary revenues will be key focus area to improve the topline, thus making every enhancement in customer experience payable. Longevity & Wellness tourism Development of wellness tourism is being accelerated with hike of healthcare costs in advanced countries & lack of proper health care facilities in developing countries 100 Overview Overview 5% CAGR • • • • • • 100 MTPA 81.5 MTPA Steel Consumption (India) Steel Production (FY 19-20) India is world’s 2nd largest producer of crude steel in January-December 2019, producing 111.245 Million Tonnes The steel industry contributes slightly more than 2 percent towards the India’s Gross Domestic Product. India’s steel industry employs more than 25 lakh people and is expected to grow to generate 36 lakh jobs by 2031 Crude steel production grew at 7.6% annually (CAGR) from 88.98 MTPA in 2014-15 to 110.92 MTPA in 2018-19 With an 81% share, the Private Sector, led crude steel production compared to the 19% contribution of the PSUs. Export of total Finished Steel (alloy + non-alloy) during 2020 stood at 10.15 MT as compared to 5.902 MT in 2016 Total Production :111 MTPA 20% 20% 80% 80% PSU Private Business Model Business Model End Use Consumption Non-Alloy Steel Alloy Steel High Carbon Steel Med. Carbon Steel Low Carbon Steel Form Rail Steel Crude Steel Liquid Steel Structural Steel Construction Steel Stainless Mini-Steel Plants Integrated Steel Plants Steel Finished Steel Ingots Flat Semis Non -Flat • Integrated steel plants put together the whole process from converting the iron ore to production and manufacturing of steel and nished and seminished products • There is a need for integrated steel plants to be located near the mining sites of iron ore, coal and limestone otherwise the transportation cost is too high • Mini steel plants use pig iron or leftovers from integrated steel plants to make alloys. • Mini steel plants have no such location restrictions. There are around 650 mini steel plants in India. Silicon electrical High Speed Revenue Streams Revenue Streams • Sale of Flat/Long Products • Iron ore pellets • Pig iron sale Indian Institute of Management, Kozhikode fi fi Industry Analysis- Steel Cost Drivers Cost Drivers • • • • • • Raw Material – Iron ore, Coal Payroll and Salaries Fuel cost Repairs & Maintenance Advertising & Selling expenses Transportation cost 000 101 Industry Analysis - Steel Growth Drivers Growth Drivers Competitors Competitors % Share of Steel demand FY 16-20 FY 21E Building Construction 3-4% (5-7) % 5-6% 35-40% Infrastructure 6-7% (8-10)% 8-10% 25-30% Automobile Manufacturing (2-3)% (12-14)% 9-10% 8-10% Engineering & Packaging 4-5% (18-12)% 4.5-5.5% 20-25% FY 21-FY25P Major Player Transportation Cost Steel plants are located inland, creating a signi cant need of time and expenses for transporting raw materials & nished goods. Raw Material procurement Eighty- ve percent of the coking coal( key raw material in steel manufacturing) that Indian steel plants require is imported.. fi fi fi fi fi fi Indian Institute of Management, Kozhikode 18 Utilisation 94% 89% 16.2 8.6 96% 73% Emerging Trends Emerging Trends Vehicle Scrappage Policy: Recycled vehicles to be used as raw materials to reduce Cost component and help companies becomes cost competitive. Input Price shock Small & medium-size companies are vulnerable to shocks in input prices since raw materials are 58% of their revenues as opposed to 40% for large producer Government introduced Steel Scrap Recycling Policy to reduce import Government Initiatives 14 Capacity in MTPA (million Tonnes Per Annum) | FY 19-20 Challenges High Financing Cost makes it dif cult for domestic players to operate capacity expansion plans. Capacity Lack of R&D Spending A comparison of Indian steel producers with global peers highlights an 80% lag in R&D spending leading to poor product quality Cheaper Chinese Imports Even after imposition of various tariffs of government of India on imports and cheaper impacts the domestic industry, Export duty of 30% on iron ore to ensure domestic supply Capacity expansion: companies in the industry are undertaking modernisation and expansion of plants to be more cost ef cient Emphasis on technology innovations: MOS issued directions to the steel companies to take up R&D projects by spending at least 1% of their sales turnover to facilitate technological innovations. Substitution: Coal and natural gas substitution with hydrogen as a reducing agent will reduce emissions Impact of Electric vehicles: Indian government is putting a signi cant thrust on electric vehicles, which will require less steel as these vehicles have fewer auto components. Allocated Rs. 39.25 crore to the Ministry of Steel in Budget 2020-21 National Steel Policy 2017 Implemented to encourage the industry to reach global benchmarks Policy allowing 100% FDI (via the automatic route) to boost investments 102 Industry Analysis- Telecom 5.4% CAGR $1.7 Tn 2021 Overview Overview $2.5 Tn Global Market 2028 Indian Tele Density • APAC captured the largest share of >32%, expected to witness signi cant growth from 2021-28 • India is world’s 2nd largest telecom market - 1.16 Bn subscriber base; INR 68,228 Cr. revenue (Q3FY21) • Expected 920 Mn unique mobile subscribers by 2025, including 88 Mn 5G connection in India • Average wireless data usage per subscriber in India ~11GB per month (FY20), ~18GB by 2024 • India’s contribution to GDP is expected to reach 8% in 2022 from ~6.5% presently Network Services Telecom Equipment Access Cable & Broadband Services Mobile services – Fixed charges to the users on the basis of consumption of voice and/or data services Internet Prepaid 1,198.5 Mn Telephone Subscriber Base Broadband Subscriber Base 98.2 % Wireless 97.1 % 1.8 % Wireline 2.9 % Application & Content Providers 60.22 % Rural Postpaid 780.27 Mn Subscription based services – Periodic subscription for various value added services, addons Contribution towards Employment Cost Drivers Cost Drivers Broadband services – Packages for offering broadband internet services Network installation & maintenance Revenue sharing with partner platforms, websites Spectrum license cost Equipment manufacturing and providing of infrastructure Providing payment related and other nancial services through UPI, wallet Value ValueChain Chain Infrastructure & Equipment provider Urban BusinessModel Model Business Classi Classi cation cation Infrastructure 140.04 % 4 Mn Infrastructure development & IT upgradation charges Employee bene ts and other expenses Key Players Players Key Telecom Service Providers Retail Distribution Telecom Operator Market Share 35.06% 24.26% 29.34% 10.72% ARPU* (As of March 2021) 138 107 145 N/A Customer Value added service Providers 103 000 fi fi fi fi fi Indian Institute of Management, Kozhikode Active Internet Users Internet Use Case 622 Mn 900 Mn 2021 Maharastra Highest internet Penetration 2025 Bihar Lowest internet Penetration GrowthDrivers Drivers Growth ~96% of users access internet for entertainment Around 90% use it for communication Approx. 82% use to access social media platforms About 45% have used the internet to do some sort of online transaction ~28% are estimated to regularly shop online • Rise in demand for cellular services • Increasing data consumption • Uptick in consumption of VAS • Increasing per capita income of people • Advancements in technologies • Infrastructure development • Local and foreign investment in ows • Government support & initiatives PM-WANI 100% FDI allowed – 49% through automatic route, 49% under govt. route. 3rd largest sector in terms of FDI in ows. In ows ~$37.62 Bn (Apr’00 – Dec’20) FDI Budget Budget 20-21, allocation of INR 14,200 Cr. for telecom infra. In 20-21, DoT allocated INR 58,737 Cr. – 56% revenue expenditure, 44% capital National Digital Communications Policy Government schemes & Initiatives Production linked incentive scheme for manufacturing of Telecom & networking products ~INR 12,195 Cr. Scheme outlay Lower penetration of xed-line and connectivity with high-speed bre networks, lower availability of spectrum compared to other mature markets Low realization of revenue from users, declining ARPU JAM trinity Regulatory body: TRAI PLI • Changing lifestyle & preference for convenience • Reducing gap between rural and urban cities • Favorable startup ecosystem spurring innovation Risk&&Challenges Challenges Risk Regulatory RegulatoryEnvironment Environment Bharat Net project – Optical bre cables Dynamic regulatory environment – High dependence of operators on government for spectrum auction, uncertainties around taxation, AGR dues etc. High competition from new age tech players and digital giants whose are providing substitutable services Emerging Trends Emerging Trends •5G Tech is projected to contribute approx. $450 Bn (2023-2040) •5G subscriptions to reach ~350 Mn by 2026 contributing to 27% of all mobile subscriptions •5G radio products to be manufactured in India for global and domestic need •IoT will help in connecting a large no. of devices on the network and will play a pivotal role in the 100 smart cities project of India •BSNL partnered with Skylo tech India for NB-IoT (Narrow Band-Internet of Things) – providing access and connectivity to millions of unconnected machines, sensors and industrial IoT devices By Dec 2022, DoT is targeting: •100% broadband connectivity in the villages, •55% berization of mobile towers, •Average broadband speeds of 25 MBPS •30 lakh kms of optic bre rollouts Sustainable practices being adopted by operators, infra companies - lowering their energy consumption fl fl fi fi fi Indian Institute of Management, Kozhikode fl fi fi Industry Analysis- Telecom •Data analytics through AI, ML helps telecom operators in implementing automation, cutting down on network costs, and boosting the performance of network •AI powered conversational platforms 104 Overview Overview 5.3% CAGR 2020 Global Market 12.9% CAGR Indian Tele Density • • • • Globally, North America dominates with 34% share, followed by APAC at 32% Indian IT contributed to ~8% to GDP in 2020, expected to reach 10% of GDP by 2025 Indian domestic revenue ~$44 Bn and export revenue around $147 Bn in FY20 BFSI major contributor to revenue of Indian IT, adoption of new emerging tech accelerates growth • Indian IT companies have delivery centres spread across the globe – US, Europe etc. $4.1 Tn $3.7 Tn 2022 Devices & Hardware IT Services Communication Services Enterprise Software IT Services Data Center System Cloud Services W Application development & Maintenance SaaS IT infra & Installation IaaS Business Process Outsourcing PaaS Assurance Services FaaS (Function) Enterprise Solution Fixed Price: Pre-determined price for the service contract Transactional Model: Pay a xed price per unit of hardware/service provided Time & Material (T&M): Charge out rates in accordance with the resources involved Subscription Model: Pay a xed fee per unit of time/ resource, receive in return a xed number of units of the product/service Value Chain Infrastructure, Equipment & Hardware Providers Software Providers Systems Software $ 191 Bn 2020 Business Model Business Model Classi cation Application Software $ 350 Bn Indian Market 2025 Cost Drivers Cost Drivers Licensing Model: Pay a royalty or license fee to use, sell or copy the product within a given period of time R&D and innovation cost Infrastructure set up, delivery center costs Employee bene t expenses Other business models: •Freemium model •Bundling model •Razor blades model •Crowdsourcing model Product development expenses Other operating expenses Key Players Players Key Operations & Support; Other Professional Services Service Delivery Centers IT & ITeS Cloud Service Providers End Users fi Indian Institute of Management, Kozhikode fi fi fi fi Industry Analysis- Technology 105 000 Industry Analysis- Technology Metrics Metrics SaaS companies commanding higher valuation than traditional IT-ITeS players. Reasons for higher multiple could be: - Recurring revenue ! Annual recurring revenue - Fast growth ! Client growth % - Easier scalability, Larger market via the cloud ! Client and geographical penetration - Higher lifetime value of customers via long-term contracts ! LTV vs CAC - Proprietary technology and IP ! No. of proprietary tech. patentable processes - More deal activity in the industry ! Funding raised, investors’ interest • Growth in Data Centers (2nd Largest driver of IT spending), Enterprise Solutions (Largest driver of IT spending) • Indian AI market valued at $6.4 Bn (Aug’20) - IT and services has 41.1% share, tech sector (software, hardware) has 23.3%, BFSI has 9.6% Meghraj Policy 100% FDI (Indian IT - 2nd major destination in FDI), FDI in ows $62.47 Bn between Apr 2000 Sep 2020 Budget NOFN Allocated INR 53,108 crore (US$ 7.31 billion) to the IT and telecom sector in Budget 2021 National Optical Fibre Network (NOFN) to connect all 0.25 Mn Gram Panchayats in India with high-speed broadband Digital India Government schemes & Initiatives • SaaS growing at fast pace - frugalness of operating in India, given the lower manpower cost required to create a large pool of diversi ed skilled talent. • Increasing number of internet users • Adoption of remote working (increasing need of infra for storing humongous volume of data) • Covid reinforced tech-enabled organizational transformation • India’s highly quali ed talent pool of technical graduates • Cost advantage to India – about 5-6 times cheaper than US • Incremental focus on digitisation Risk &&Challenges Risk Challenges Regulatory RegulatoryEnvironment Environment FDI Growth GrowthDrivers Drivers MyGov; Focus on e-Governance High Competition among new-age startups, technology giants – leading to similar product and service portfolio Revenue concentration across clients, geographies, >50% revenue of Indian IT industry coming from US Information & Cyber security; data protection & privacy Information Technology Act, 2000 MEITY’s policies Personal Data Protection Bill, 2019 Given the positive sentiment around the potential of technology, valuation multiples of many companies have peaked Due to emerging tech, companies may have to revisit their business model and come up with new product offerings Emerging EmergingTrends Trends 3C – Cloud, Collaboration, Cybersecurity, will drive the sector Covid-19 pandemic induced major shifts – acceleration in the pace of digital transformation and hybrid work model, changing the dynamics of the workplace and the service delivery IoT will help in increased transparency and ef ciency in logistics management, data management and infrastructure. Global industrial IoT market expected to reach $949.42 Bn by 2025 High penetration of Industrial Revolution 4.0 technologies; Blockchain, AI, ML, Big data will see enhanced use cases SaaS market is expected to reach $219.5 Bn by 2027 from $68.2 Bn in 2020, CAGR of 18.2%. fi fi fi fl Indian Institute of Management, Kozhikode Changing business models will be witnessed amid heightened digital innovation across the various industries Cloud market is expected to grow from $371.4 Bn in 2020 to $832.1 Bn in 2025, CAGR of 17.5% Cybersecurity - Spending on cloud security tools projected to increase from $5.6 Bn in 2018 to $12.6 Bn by 2023 106 Industry Analysis- Media & Entertainment Overview Overview 17 % CAGR $ 2.23 Tn $1.38 Tn 2020 M&E Sector - India 2023 • • • • • • • Advertising Spends FY 20 Media and Entertainment industry is projected to increase at a CAGR of 17% between 2020 and 2023. M&E industry grows and falls faster than the GDP due to the given discretionary nature of advertising. Advertising key source of revenue, but lately revenue from subscription & value added services are increasing India’s subscription revenue is projected to reach Rs. 940 billion in 2023, from Rs. 631 billion in 2020 We have 550 million television and smart phone consumers today, we expect a billion screens by 2025 Despite a slowing economy, there was a robust growth in digital segment which posted a 26% increase in FY20 Television saw a 22% fall in advertising revenues due to highly discounted ad rates during the lockdown months • • • • • • Website Platform Maintenance IT systems Content making/buying Distribution & Licensing Salaries, Copyrights Revenue Streams Revenue Streams • Advertising Revenue • Subscription revenue • Value added services • • • • • • • • • Television Films Print Radio Online Gaming Out of Home (OOH) Music Digital & OTT Animation & VFX FY 2020 44 % Others 10 % Television Digital & OTT 3636 %% 10 %27 % 27% 27 % 27% Value ValueMap Map ValueChain Chain-- Value Classi Segments Classication cation & & Major Major Segments Cost Drivers Cost Drivers Total Ad Spends - Rs 726 Billion Print FY2023P 41 % 18 % Television 16 % Print 13 % 18 % Digital & OTT 11 % Films 15 % 15 % 10 % Others Business Model Transaction Model It’s a classical model were revenue is generated by directly selling an item or a service to a customer Subscription Model This model is based on access to content for a period of time that’s recurring. Access to pool of content than one content Licensing Model Content created and then earn through licensing its rights to that another media company handles marketing and distribution. Content Marketing Content Marketing is, simply put, using content as a tool to market some other product or service from which you make money Advertisement Model Advertising is most common model, here companies pay media outlets to place their ads in between/ beside their content. Production and programming of content across all mediums Distribution of content and information, representing nal touchpoint with end user Engagement with and consumption of content Source : Accenture fi fi fi Indian Institute of Management, Kozhikode 107 Industry Analysis - Media & Entertainment Growth Drivers Competitors Television Key demand drivers included rising demand for content among users and affordable subscription packages. India’s per capita income at current prices grew 11.0% to reach Rs 141,447 (US$ 1,960.46) in FY19AE will increase consumer spends. Growth has been driven by personalisation and customisation of content to regional languages Widening of the consumer base will also be aided by the expansion of the middle-class, increasing urbanisation and changing lifestyles Elite af uent, aspirers & next billion income class are expected to grow at CAGR of 11%, 9% 5%, & 2%, respectively by 2025 & will drive growth in M&E The number of suppliers of content will increase due to low barriers to entry and cheaper internet facilities & free-of-cost social media platforms Print Film Music Challenges New Tariff Order Lack of Trust & Loyalty The New Tariff Order (NTO) implemented during February 2019 increased end-customer prices for television content, reduced the reach of certain genres of channels and resulted in a 6% reduction in time spent watching television during the second half of calendar 2019 With the in ux of fake media and making headlines, media outlets must also look to establish credibility with viewers. Misreporting the facts or misrepresenting what was said can hurt the network’s credibility overall. Piracy Battle for Space Online piracy of lm and TV content is rampant in India and investments in preventive technology need to be made robust if this is to be checked. With social media and commerce players increasingly investing in original content or licensing more traditional media players nd the economics of content creation and acquisition increasingly challenging. Emerging Trends On the back of increased wireless and wired broadband connections and proliferation of low-cost smart television sets, they smart sets will increase from 4 to 40-50 million by 2025 In FY20, TV penetration in India stood at 69% driven by DTH market. In FY20, DTH registered a market share of 37% to the total TV market against 34% in FY19 Government Initiatives Consumption of regional content is expected to grow over the next few years. Currently it comprises over 50% of Tv viewership, 44% of lms, 43% of newspaper circulation and 30% of OTT consumption. In 2020 rising number of consumers switching to mobile/tablet/laptop screens for entertainment increased paid video-on-demand subscriptions increased by ~60% YoY fi fi fi fi fl fl With consumers willing to pay for content and extra services, the subscription segment is going to play an important role in the post-digitisation era. ·FDI in ows in the information and broadcasting sector (including print media) stood at US$ 9.4 billion between April’00 and December’ 20 Indian Institute of Management, Kozhikode fl The addition of another 100 million smart phones and continued conversion of 2G and 3G connections to 4G, online gaming segment will drive a 3x growth in this segment by 2022 ·In February 2021, (IAMAI) nalised a code of conduct to form the basis for self-regulation code for OTT content. ·The Government of India increased the FDI limit from 74% to 100%. ·The NTO 2.0 seeks to protect consumers by capping tariffs for channel bouquets, price composition of the NCF. 108 Copyright : Vineet Bajaj