FIN 3701 Chapter 4 :Preferred and Common Stocks Stock Valuation Assumption University of Thailand FIN3701 Corporate Finance Chapter 4 Preferred and Common Stocks “Genius is 90% perspiration and 10% inspiration” T. Edison Warren Buffet Source: http://www.quotespin.com Dr. Chainarin Srinutchasart Source: http://bgr.com 2 1 Objectives Principles Applied in This Chapter • In this chapter, you will learn • Features of preferred stock • Determining preferred stock values • Features of common stock • Determining common stock values • Principle 1: Money Has a Time Value. • Principle 2: There is a Risk-Reward Tradeoff. • Principle 3: Cash Flows are the Source of Value. • Principle 4: Market Prices Reflect Information. • Principle 5: Individuals Respond to Incentives. 3 Corporate Finance addresses the following 3 questions: 4 The Balance-Sheet Model of the Firm 1. What long-term investments should the firm engage in? 2. How can the firm raise money for the required investments? (Alternatives: Bonds, Stocks, Preferred Stocks=what is the appropriate price?) 3. How much short-term cash flow does a company need to pay its bills? and how to raise it 5 The Capital Structure Decision (Ch. 12, 15, 18) (Financing Decision) Current Liabilities Current Assets Fixed Assets 1 Tangible 2 Intangible How can the firm raise the money for the required investments? Long-Term Debt This ch. Shareholders’ Equity 6 1 FIN 3701 Chapter 4 :Preferred and Common Stocks Debt vs. Equity Preferred Stock “Raising the capital: Tools” Fixed Claim Tax Deductible High Priority in Financial Trouble Fixed Maturity No Management Control Debt Bank Debt Commercial Paper Corporate Bonds Residual Claim Not Tax Deductible Lowest Priority in Financial Trouble Infinite Management Control Hybrid Securities Convertible Debt Preferred Stock Option-linked Bonds Equity Owner's Equity Venture Capital Common Stock Warrants What we will cover for this chapter Source: http://i0.sinaimg.cn 7 8 Preferred Stock Preferred Stock A hybrid security: • It’s like common stock - no fixed maturity. • Technically, it’s part of equity capital. • It’s like debt - preferred dividends are fixed. • Missing a preferred dividend does not constitute default, but preferred dividends are cumulative. (and preferred dividends need to be paid before common stock’s dividends) • Usually sold for $25, $50, or $100 per share. • Dividends are fixed either as a dollar amount or as a percentage of par value. • Example: In 1988, Xerox issued $75 million of 8.25% preferred stock at $50 per share. • $4.125 is the fixed, annual dividend per share. 9 10 When to issue a preferred stock? Preferred Stock Features • The company already has too high level of debt. • Firms may have multiple classes of preferreds, each with different features. • Priority: lower than debt, higher than common stock. (Claim of EBIT) • **Cumulative feature: all past unpaid preferred stock dividends must be paid before any common stock dividends are declared. • And they don’t want to dilute the ownership interest of common stock holders. 11 12 2 FIN 3701 Chapter 4 :Preferred and Common Stocks Preferred Stock Features Preferred Stock Valuation • PIK Preferred: Pay-in-kind preferred stocks pay additional preferred shares to investors rather than cash dividends. • Retirement: Most preferreds are callable, and many include a sinking fund provision to set cash aside for the purpose of retiring preferred shares. • A preferred stock can usually be valued like a perpetuity: Source: http://www.palmbeachperfumes.com 13 14 Type of Value Security Valuation • Book value: value of an asset as shown on a firm’s balance sheet; historical cost. • Market value: observed value of an asset in the marketplace; determined by supply and demand. • Intrinsic value: economic or fair value of an asset; the present value of the asset’s expected future cash flows. • In general, the intrinsic value of an asset = the present value of the stream of expected cash flows discounted at an appropriate required rate of return. • Can the intrinsic value of an asset differ from its market value? 15 Valuation Preferred Stock Valuation n V = 16 S t=1 • Discount the Preferred stock’s cash flows (Dividend) at the investor’s required rate of return. $Ct (1 + k)t • Ct = cash flow to be received at time t. • k = the investor’s required rate of return. • V = the intrinsic value of the asset. 17 18 3 FIN 3701 Chapter 4 :Preferred and Common Stocks Preferred Stock Valuation Mathematically, 1 • Discount the preferred stock’s cash flows at the investor’s required rate of return. • The DIV payment stream (perpetuity). (PVIFA i, n ) = 1 – (1 + i)n i We said that a perpetuity is an annuity where n = infinity. What happens to this formula when n gets very, very large? 19 When n gets very large, 1 1 – (1 + i)n i So, Preferred Stock Valuation • A preferred stock can usually be valued like a perpetuity: this becomes zero. So we’re left with PVIFA = 20 Vps = 1 i D k ps 21 Example: • Xerox preferred pays an 8.25% dividend on a $50 par value. • Suppose our required rate of return on Xerox preferred is 9.5%. Vps = 4.125 22 Expected Rate of Return on Preferred • Just adjust the valuation model: kps = $43.42 = D Po .095 23 24 4 FIN 3701 Chapter 4 :Preferred and Common Stocks Example Example • If we know the preferred stock price is $40, and the preferred dividend is $4.125, the expected return is: • If we know the preferred stock price is $40, and the preferred dividend (Annually) is $4.125, the expected return is: k ps = D Po 4.125 = 40 = 25 26 Example • If we know the preferred stock price is $40, and the preferred dividend is $4.125, the expected return is: Common Stocks k ps D = Po 4.125 = = .1031 40 27 28 Common Stock Debt vs. Equity “Raising the capital: Tools” Fixed Claim Tax Deductible High Priority in Financial Trouble Fixed Maturity No Management Control Debt Bank Debt Commercial Paper Corporate Bonds Common stock = owner Bond = creditor Preferred stock = hybrid Source: http://computerwoche.de Residual Claim Not Tax Deductible Lowest Priority in Financial Trouble Infinite Management Control Hybrid Securities Convertible Debt Preferred Stock Option-linked Bonds Equity Owner's Equity Venture Capital Common Stock Warrants What we will cover for this chapter 29 30 5 FIN 3701 Chapter 4 :Preferred and Common Stocks Common Stock Common Stock: Owners, Directors, and Managers (In theory) • • • • • • Is a variable-income security. • Dividends may be increased or decreased, depending on earnings. • Includes voting rights. • Limited liability: liability is limited to amount of owners’ investment. • Priority: lower than debt and preferred. Represents ownership in a corporation. Ownership implies control. Agency Stockholders elect directors. Cost Directors hire management. arises Since managers are “agents” of shareholders, their goal should be: Maximize stock price. (That’s why we need to know how to value a stock) 32 31 Understanding Stock Share Terms Understanding Stock Share Terms • Authorized Shares – These shares represent the total number of shares of stock authorized when the company was created. Only a vote by the shareholders can increase this number of shares. However, just because a company authorized a certain number of shares doesn’t mean it must issue all of them to the public. Most companies retain shares for use later called unissued stock or shares. • Restricted Shares – Restricted shares refer to company stock used for employee incentive and compensation plans. Restricted stockowners need permission of the SEC to sell. There is a waiting period after a company first goes public where insiders’ restricted stock is frozen. When insiders want to sell their stock, they must file a form with the SEC declaring their intention. Even insiders of established companies must file with the SEC before selling their restricted stock. • Float Shares – Float refers to the number of shares actually available for trade on the open market. You and I can buy these shares. • Unissued Shares – Shares a company retains in its treasury and not issued to the public or to employees are unissued shares. 33 Understanding Stock Share Terms • Outstanding Shares – Outstanding shares includes all the shares issued by the company, which would be the restricted shares plus the float. • Treasury Shares – Previously issued stock that has been repurchased by the company. Buying treasury stock is an alternative to paying dividends. Since outstanding shares will be fewer after stock has been repurchased, EPS will rise. 35 34 Here’s a simple example with numbers to illustrate the relationship of these different shares: • • • • • Authorized Shares – 100 Unissued Shares – 20 Restricted Shares – 10 Float – 70 (100 – 20 – 10 = 70) Outstanding Shares – 80 (10 + 70 = 80) 36 6 FIN 3701 Chapter 4 :Preferred and Common Stocks Why is this Important? Why is this Important? • Look at the relationship of unissued shares and restricted shares to float for where controlling interest of the company will reside. Many companies retain a large percentage of the authorized shares in their treasuries or in the hands of management through restricted shares. Companies do this to make sure no other company can seize control in an unfriendly takeover. They may also want to have stock handy for future issue instead of using debt to buy another company or for another major expenditure. • If the float of a company is very small and the stock attracts attention of investors it can become volatile because of supply and demand imbalances. More buyers will drive the price up, which is not a bad thing if you own the stock. However, it may make the stock over priced relative to its earnings or other fundamental measures. Likewise, if the stock falls out of favor, sellers may have trouble unloading their shares, which would tend to force the price down further and more rapidly than fundamentals might indicate. 37 38 Common Stock Characteristics Common Stock Characteristics • Claim on Income - a stockholder has a claim on the firm’s residual income. • Claim on Assets - a stockholder has a residual claim on the firm’s assets in case of liquidation. • Preemptive Rights - stockholders may share proportionally in any new stock issues. • Voting Rights - right to vote for the firm’s board of directors. Voting Rights • Most shareholders vote by proxy. A proxy gives a designated party the temporary power of attorney to vote for the signee at the corporation’s annual meeting. • There are two commonly used procedures for voting: majority voting and cumulative voting. 39 40 Common Stock Characteristics Example of Proxy Statement Voting Rights • Majority Voting: Each share of stock allows the shareholder one vote, and each position on the board is voted on separately. Because each member of the board is elected by a simple majority, a majority of shares has the power to elect the entire board of directors. Source: http://img.ehowcdn.com 41 42 7 FIN 3701 Chapter 4 :Preferred and Common Stocks Common Stock Characteristics Voting Rights • Cumulative Voting: Each share of stock allows the shareholders a number of votes equal to the number of directors being elected. The shareholders can use all his or her votes for a single candidate or split them among the various candidates. The advantage of cumulative voting is that it gives minority shareholders the power to elect a director. Return of Common Stocks 43 44 Calculating the Realized Return from an Investment Calculating the Realized Return from an Investment (Cont.) • Realized return or cash return measures the gain or loss on an investment. • Example: You invested in 1 share of Apple (AAPL) for $95 and sold a year later for $200. The company did not pay any dividend during that period. What will be the cash return on this investment? Cash Ending Cash Distribution _ Beginning + = Return Price (Dividend) Price Source: http://theapplecollection.com 45 Calculating the Realized Return from an Investment (Cont.) 46 Calculating the Realized Return from an Investment (Cont.) • Example: You invested in 1 share of Apple (AAPL) for $95 and sold a year later for $200. The company did not pay any dividend during that period. What will be the cash return on this investment? 47 Cash Ending Cash Distribution _ Beginning + = Return Price (Dividend) Price • Cash Return = $200 + 0 - $95 = $105 48 8 FIN 3701 Chapter 4 :Preferred and Common Stocks Calculating the Realized Return from an Investment (Cont.) Calculating the Realized Return from an Investment (Cont.) • We can also calculate the rate of return as a percentage. It is simply the cash return divided by the beginning stock price. • Example: You invested in 1 share of share Apple (AAPL) for $95 and sold a year later for $200. The company did not pay any dividend during that period. What will be the rate of return on this investment? Cash Ending Cash Distribution _ Beginning Return Price + (Dividend) Price Rate of = = Return Beginning Beginning Price Price 49 50 Calculating the Realized Return from an Investment (Cont.) Cash Ending Cash Distribution _ Beginning Return Price + (Dividend) Price Rate of = = Return Beginning Beginning Price Price • Rate of Return = ($200 + 0 - $95) ÷ 95 = 110.53% • Next table has additional examples on measuring an investor’s realized rate of return from investing in common stock. 51 52 What drives the stock price? What is the reasonable price for a common stock? Source: http://www.orientalwatchsite.com Valuation techniques “the future cash flows expected by market players” Source: http://www.jobonomics.com 53 54 9 FIN 3701 Chapter 4 :Preferred and Common Stocks Basic Common Stock Valuation (Single Holding Period) Basic Security Valuation • In general, the intrinsic value of an asset = the present value of the stream of expected cash flows discounted at an appropriate required rate of return. • You expect XYZ stock to pay a $5.50 dividend at the end of the year. The stock price is expected to be $120 at that time. • If you require a 15% rate of return, what would you pay for the stock now? Source: http://sombomull.blogspot.com ? 5.50 + 120 0 1 55 Basic Common Stock Valuation (Single Holding Period) 56 Basic Common Stock Valuation (Single Holding Period) Solution: Financial Calculator solution: Price or Vcs = (5.50/1.15) + (120/1.15) P/Y =1, I = 15, n=1, FV= 125.50 solve: PV = -109.13 or: P/Y =1, I = 15, n=1, FV= 120, PMT = 5.50 solve: PV = -109.13 = 4.783 + 104.348 = $109.13 57 58 Valuation of Common Stock (actual approaches to value the stock) Valuation of Common Stock (actual approaches to value the stock) 1. Discounted Cash Flow Techniques (DCF) • PV of Dividends (DDM) • PV of Free Cash Flow to Equity (FCFE) • PV of Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) • PV of Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) by using the percent of sales method 2. Relative valuation techniques • Price-earnings ratio (P/E) • Price-cash flow ratios (P/CF) • Price-book value ratios (P/BV) • Price-sales ratio (P/S) 59 60 10 FIN 3701 Chapter 4 :Preferred and Common Stocks When is a company going to pay it’s dividend (mostly)? Dividend Discount Model (DDM) Decline Maturity SALES Intrinsic Valuation Growth Introduction Product Life Cycle Curve Source: http://wikimedia.org 61 62 Intrinsic Valuation Stock Value = PV of Dividends Dividend Discount Method • The price of a stock reflects the present value of the stock's future dividends • t = period • Dt = dividend in period t • kcs or rs = discount rate Dt Price t t 1 (1 rs ) Pˆ0 D1 D2 D3 1 rs 1 1 rs 2 1 rs 3 ... Price t 1 Dt (1 rs) t What is a constant growth stock? D One whose dividends are expected to grow forever at a constant rate, g. 1 rs 63 How to get “g” >>Internal Growth (growing what?) 64 Example • Let’s assume that the return on equity (ROE) for AA company is 16 percent. • If AA’s management decides to pay all the profits out in dividends to its stockholders, the firm will experience no growth internally (right?). • It might become larger by borrowing more money or issuing new stocks (growth externally), but internal growth will come only through the retention of profits (Net Income). • Use retained earnings to finance new investments. • Why not debts? Or issuing new stocks? Source: http://biomassmagazine.com 65 66 11 FIN 3701 Chapter 4 :Preferred and Common Stocks Example (Cont.) How to find growth rate (g) • If, however, AA retains all the profits, the stockholders’ investment in the firm would grow by the amount of profits retained, or by 16 percent. • If, however, management kept only 50 percent of the profits for investment, the common shareholders’ investment would increase only by half of the 16 percent return on equity, or by 8 percent. g = ROE x retention rate or g = ROE x (1 – dividend payout ratio) Where ROE = net income / total equity(BV) Therefore, if only 25 percent of the profits were retained by AA, we would expect the common stockholders’ investment in the firm and the value of the stock price to increase or grow by only g= 16% x 0.25 = 4% 67 68 For a constant growth stock, D1 D0 1 g 2 D2 D0 1 g t Dt Dt 1 g 1 What happens if g > rs? **The most recent dividend D1 Pˆ0 requires rs g . rs g • If rs< g, get negative stock price, which is nonsense. If g is constant, then (Gordon’s Growth Model): D 1 g D1 Pˆ0 0 rs g rs g Preferred Stock; g =0 • We can’t use model unless (1) g rs and (2) g is expected to be constant forever. 69 What’s the stock’s intrinsic value? D0 = 2.00, rs = 13%, g = 6%. D0 was $2.00 and g is a constant 6%. Find the expected dividends for the next 3 years, and their PVs. rs = 13%. 0 1 2 2.12 2.2472 3 70 Constant growth model (Gordon Growth Model): 4 D 1 g D1 Pˆ0 0 rs g rs g g=6% D0=2.00 1.8761 2.3820 13% 1.7599 = 1.6508 71 $2.12 0.13 - 0.06 = $2.12 0.07 = $30.29. 72 12 FIN 3701 Chapter 4 :Preferred and Common Stocks For a stock you have two sources of profit (loss): price increase (decrease), and dividends. Thus, (P1 - P0) + Dividend kt = actual return = P0 (3) P1 - P0 Dividend + P0 P0 = capital gains yield + dividend yield What is the stock’s intrinsic value one ^ year from now, P1? D1 will have been paid, so expected dividends are D2, D3, D4 and so on. Thus, D Pˆ1 2 rs g Where, • P1 = value of asset at the end of the period • P0 = value of asset at the beginning or current of the period • k1 = actual return over period "t" • P1 - P0 = capital gain (loss) • yield = return = $2.2427 = $32.10 0.07 73 74 Find the total return during the first year. Find the expected dividend yield and capital gains (CG) yield during the first year. Dividend yield = D1 = P0 CG Yield = ^ P1 - P0 P0 $2.12 • Total return = Dividend yield + Capital gains yield. • Total return = 7% + 6% = 13%. • Total return = 13% = rs. • For constant growth stock: Capital gains yield = 6% = g. = 7.0%. $30.29 $32.10 - $30.29 = $30.29 = 6.0%. 76 75 What would P0 be if g = 0? Rearrange model to rate of return form: The dividend stream would be a perpetuity. Pˆ0 D1 D to r s 1 g . rs g P0 0 ^ Then, rs = $2.12/$30.29 + 0.06 = 0.07 + 0.06 = 13%. rs=13% ^ P0 = 77 D r = 1 2 3 2.00 2.00 2.00 $2.00 0.13 = $15.38. 78 13 FIN 3701 Chapter 4 :Preferred and Common Stocks Nonconstant growth followed by constant growth: Ex2:If we have supernormal growth of 30% for 3 years, then a long-run constant g = 6%, what is P^0? r is still 13%. (D0 = 2) 0 1 rs=13% g = 30% D0 = 2.00 • Can no longer use constant growth model. • However, growth becomes constant after 3 years. 2 g = 30% 2.60 3 g = 30% 3.38 4 g = 6% 4.394 4.6576 2.3009 2.6470 3.0453 $4.6576 Pˆ3 $66.5371 0.13 0.06 46.1135 ^ 54.1067 = P0 79 What are the annual dividend and capital gains yield? Ex3:If g = -6%, would anyone buy the stock? If so, at what price? Capital gains yield = g = -6.0%. Firm still has earnings and still pays ^ > 0: dividends, so P 0 Dividend yield = 13.0% - (-6.0%) = 19.0%. D 1 g D1 Pˆ0 0 rs g rs g = $2.00(0.94) 0.13 - (-0.06) = $1.88 0.19 80 Both yields are constant over time, with the high dividend yield (19%) offsetting the negative capital gains yield. = $9.89. 81 What Causes Stock Prices to Go Up and Down? 82 EX4: Stock value vs. changes in rs and g D1 = $2, rs = 10%, and g = 5%: P0 = D1 / (rs-g) = $2 / (0.10 - 0.05) = $40. What if rs or g change? • Equation indicates that there are three variables that drive share value: • The most recent dividend (D0), • Investor’s required rate of return (rcs ), and • Expected rate of growth in future dividends (g). rs 9% 10% 11% 83 g 4% 40.00 33.33 28.57 g 5% 50.00 40.00 33.33 g 6% 66.67 50.00 40.00 84 14 FIN 3701 Chapter 4 :Preferred and Common Stocks Intrinsic Valuation Are volatile stock prices consistent with rational pricing? Dividend Discount Method • Small changes in expected g and rs cause large changes in stock prices. • Limitations of the Dividend Discount Model • Potential errors in estimating dividends • Potential errors in estimating growth rate • Potential errors in estimating required return • Not all firms pay dividends – Technology firms – Biomedical firms • As new information arrives, investors continually update their estimates of g and rs . 86 85 Valuation of Common Stock (actual approaches to value the stock) Valuation of Common Stock (actual approaches to value the stock) 1. Discounted Cash Flow Techniques (DCF) • PV of Dividends (DDM) • PV of Free Cash Flow to Equity (FCFE) • PV of Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) • PV of Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) by using the percent of sales method 2. Relative valuation techniques • Price-earnings ratio (P/E) • Price-cash flow ratios (P/CF) • Price-book value ratios (P/BV) • Price-sales ratio (P/S) 87 Relative Valuation 88 Mr. S wanna buy a new house in Washington DC. Using the Stock Price Multiples Source: http://presstv.ir 89 90 15 FIN 3701 Chapter 4 :Preferred and Common Stocks He knows what he wants How much should it be? How do I know? What about here? Not a chance bro! Source: http://s2.hubimg.com Source: http://real-estate-washingtondc.com & universityofmakeup.com 91 Mr. S goes around looking at the prices paid for houses in the neighborhood 92 So.. He goes around looking at the prices paid for similar houses (in terms of the quality) in the neighborhood Is cheaper better? $100,000 AVG the prices Nope! Coz… diff quality And his house should never be more expensive than the AVG prices for the same quality houses In the same area>>> relative price $25,000 Source: http://cebuhomeproperties.wordpress.com & http://fineartamerica.com Source: http://www.monterose.com, mrwilliamsburg.com & 2.imimg.com 93 What about stocks? (sector: technology, industry:personel computer) 94 >>So… before you compare, you got to standardize first! HOW? Divided the price by a common variable such as cash flow, risk and growth rate $14.3 / share $366.99 / share $25.78 / share Create multiples Unit: times (X) Is cheaper better? Can you even compare the prices? • Current Multiples • Trial Multiples • Forward Multiples *** P/E, P/S, P/CF, P/BV Source: http:// latestlaptop.biz, theapplecollection.com & gemind.com.br 95 96 16 FIN 3701 Chapter 4 :Preferred and Common Stocks Relative Valuation Multiple: Forward P/E Where E is expected earning next year 7.08X 4.5X Price-Earnings (PE) Method • Apply the average PE ratio of publicly traded competitors • Use expected earnings rather than historical • Equation: 5.57X Company’s Stock = Expected EPS x AVG industry PE ratio Price Which one is cheapest in terms of expected earning? Source: http:// latestlaptop.biz, theapplecollection.com & gemind.com.br 97 98 Valuing Common Stock Using the P/E Ratio Valuing Common Stock Using the P/E Ratio (Cont.) The Heels Shoe Company sells a line of athletic shoes for children and young adults including cleats and other specialty footwear used for various types of sports. The company is privately owned and is considering the sale of a portion of its shares to the public. The company owners are currently in discussions with an investment banker who has offered to manage the sale of shares to the public. The critical point of their discussion is the price that Heels might expect to receive upon the sale of its shares. The investment banker has suggested that this price can be estimated by looking at the P/E multiples of other publicly traded firms that are in the same general business as the Heels Shoe Company and multiplying their average P/E ratio by Heels’ expected EPS for the coming year. Last year the Heels Shoe Company had earnings of $1.65 per share for the 12-month period ended in March, 2009. Heels’ CFO estimates that company earnings for 2010 will be $1.83 a share. 99 100 Valuing Common Stock Using the P/E Ratio (Cont.) Valuing Common Stock Using the P/E Ratio (Cont.) The investment banker suggested that estimation of an appropriate P/E ratio involves looking at the P/E multiples for similar companies. As a preliminary step they suggested that Heels’ management team consider the P/E multiples of three companies: Deckers Outdoor Corp. (DECK), Nike (NKE), and Timberland Co. (TBL). The expected P/E ratios for these firms are as follows: • What is your estimate of the price of Heels’ shares based on the above comparable P/E ratios? 101 P/E Ratio Deckers Nike Timberland Average 26.85 18.79 22.18 22.61 102 17 FIN 3701 Chapter 4 :Preferred and Common Stocks STEP 1: Picture the problem STEP 2: Decide on a solution strategy The P/E valuation method is deceptively simple in that the analytics are simple. The estimated price per share is simply the product of the firm's estimated earnings per share for the coming year multiplied by what the analyst estimates to be an appropriate P/E ratio. That is, substitute into Equation (10-4): P/E Valuation (2009) $41.38 45 40 35 30 25 $22.61 20 15 10 5 $1.83 Vcs = P/E1 x E1 0 Earnings per share x P/E multiple = Stock price 103 104 STEP 3: Solve STEP 4: Analyze (Cont.) Substituting Equation (10-4) we estimate that Heels' share price to be $41.38: Vcs = P/E1 x E1 = 22.61 x $1.83 = $41.38 Also, since the sale of a privately held company's shares to the public can take several months, this estimate is contingent on no significant changes in the market. For example, if inflation worsens and the country slips into a recession, the P/E multiples of all public companies may fall. For this reason the final offering price for a firm's shares that are being sold to the public is typically set the night before the offering and reflects the most recent P/E ratios of comparable firms. STEP 4: Analyze Based on the P/E ratios of these three comparable firms we estimate the offering price of Heels' shares to be $41.38. However, this estimate is contingent on the appropriateness of the comparable set of companies to the Heels Shoe Company. 105 Relative Valuation Decision Rule • Market P/E > Industry P/E > Stock P/E (Undervalued) 106 Problems with Market Multiple Methods • It is often hard to find comparable firms. • Differences in earnings forecasts (differences in accounting method and window dressing). • The average ratio for the sample of comparable firms often has a wide range. • For example, the average P/E ratio might be 20, but the range could be from 10 to 50. How do you know whether your firm should be compared to the low, average, or high performers? (you are going to use mean, mode, median or what?) • Market P/E < Industry P/E < Stock P/E (Overvalued) • Market P/E > Industry P/E < Stock P/E (Overvalued compared to the market) 107 108 18 FIN 3701 Chapter 4 :Preferred and Common Stocks Intrinsic vs. Relative Valuation “Relative valuation should be thought of not as a substitute but as a complement of intrinsic valuation” How to Read the Stock Table 109 Common Stock Price Quotes The following is typical of what you would see if you looked at www.google.com/finance. Stock Price and Change from Previous Day: For Disney, the current price is $23.19, which represents a decline of 1.53% or $0.36 from the previous day's closing price. Name and Symbol: These are used to identify the stock. For example, the symbol for Disney is "DIS." You can also use the stock's symbol when using online systems to look up information on the stock. Open, High and Low: On this day, Disney's stock price opened the day at $23.08, and ranged between a high of $23.25 and a low of $22.95. Mkt Cap: Market Cap refers to the total value of all the company's common stock outstanding. 52Wk High and 52Wk Low: These are the highest and lowest prices paid for the stock over the pas 52 weeks, excluding the latest day's trading. These prices will give you a sense of the direction the stock price is taking-whether its price is generally going up or down and by how much. Dividend and Yield: Dividend is the stock's annual cash dividend, while Yield is the dividend yield, which is obtained by dividing the firm's annual cash dividend by the closing price of the stock that day. The Walt Disney Company (Public NYSE: DIS) 23.19 -0.36(-1.53%) Real-time: 12:40PM EDT Vol and Avg. Vol: Vol represents the number, or volume, of shares of stock that were traded so far during the day, while Avg Vol represents the average volume on a typical day. Open: 23.08 High: 23.25 Low: 22.95 Volume: 5.02M Mkt Cap: 43.06B 52Wk High: 34.85 52Wk Low: 15.14 Avg. Vol: 17.60M Dividend: 0.35 Yield: 1.51 Shares: 1.86B Inst. Own: 67% P/E: 12.59 EP/E: Beta: 1.11 EPS: 1.84 P/E, F P/E: P/E stands for price-earnings ratio (P/E ratio, also called the "earning multiple"). The P/E ratio is the stock's price divided by the firm on a per-share basis over the previous 12 months. In effect, it states the multiple that investors are willing to pay for one dollar of earnings. High P/Es may result as investors are willing to pay more for a dollar of earnings because they believe that earnings will grow dramatically in the future. Low P/Es are generally interpreted as an indication of poor or risky future prospects. F P/E is the forward price-earnings ratio, and uses estimated earnings over next 12 months. If there is no estimate, it is not given. EPS: The earnings per share. Beta: A measure of the relationship between an investment's returns and the market's returns and the market's returns. It will be discussed in detail later. Shares, Inst. Own: Shares represents number of shares outstanding while Inst. Own identifies the percent of the shares outstanding that are owned by institutions such as mutual funds and institutional ownership. 110 Common Stock Price Quotes The following is typical of what you would see if you looked at www.google.com/finance. The Walt Disney Company (Public NYSE: DIS) 23.19 Open: 23.08 Mkt Cap: -0.36(-1.53%) 23.25 52Wk High: Real-time: 12:40PM EDT High: Low: 22.95 52Wk Low: Volume: 5.02M Avg. Vol: 43.06B 34.85 15.14 17.60M P/E: EP/E: Beta: EPS: 12.59 1.11 1.84 Dividend: Yield: Shares: Inst. Own: 0.35 1.51 1.86B 67% The Walt Disney Company (Public NYSE: DIS) 23.19 -0.36(-1.53%) Real-time: 12:40PM EDT Stock Price and Change from Previous Day: For Disney, the current price is $23.19, which represents a decline of 1.53% or $0.36 from the previous day‘s closing price. 111 112 Common Stock Price Quotes The following is typical of what you would see if you looked at www.google.com/finance. Common Stock Price Quotes The following is typical of what you would see if you looked at www.google.com/finance. The Walt Disney Company (Public NYSE: DIS) 23.19 Open: 23.08 Mkt Cap: -0.36(-1.53%) 23.25 52Wk High: Real-time: 12:40PM EDT High: Low: 22.95 52Wk Low: Volume: 5.02M Avg. Vol: The Walt Disney Company (Public NYSE: DIS) 23.19 Open: 23.08 Mkt Cap: -0.36(-1.53%) 23.25 52Wk High: Real-time: 12:40PM EDT High: Low: 22.95 52Wk Low: Volume: 5.02M Avg. Vol: 43.06B 34.85 15.14 17.60M P/E: EP/E: Beta: EPS: 12.59 1.11 1.84 Dividend: Yield: Shares: Inst. Own: 0.35 1.51 1.86B 67% The Walt Disney Company (Public NYSE: DIS) 23.19 -0.36(-1.53%) Real-time: 12:40PM EDT Open: High: Low: Volume: Name and Symbol: These are used to identify the stock. For example, the symbol for Disney is "DIS." You can also use the stock's symbol when using online systems to look up information on the stock. 23.08 23.25 22.95 5.02M 43.06B 34.85 15.14 17.60M Mkt Cap: 52Wk High: 52Wk Low: Avg. Vol: P/E: EP/E: Beta: EPS: 12.59 1.11 1.84 Dividend: Yield: Shares: Inst. Own: 0.35 1.51 1.86B 67% 43.06B 34.85 15.14 17.60M Open, High and Low: On this day, Disney's stock price opened the day at $23.08, and ranged between a high of $23.25 and a low of $22.95. 113 114 19 FIN 3701 Chapter 4 :Preferred and Common Stocks Common Stock Price Quotes The following is typical of what you would see if you looked at www.google.com/finance. Common Stock Price Quotes The following is typical of what you would see if you looked at www.google.com/finance. The Walt Disney Company (Public NYSE: DIS) 23.19 Open: 23.08 Mkt Cap: -0.36(-1.53%) 23.25 52Wk High: Real-time: 12:40PM EDT High: Low: 22.95 52Wk Low: Volume: 5.02M Avg. Vol: The Walt Disney Company (Public NYSE: DIS) 23.19 Open: 23.08 Mkt Cap: -0.36(-1.53%) 23.25 52Wk High: Real-time: 12:40PM EDT High: Low: 22.95 52Wk Low: Volume: 5.02M Avg. Vol: Open: High: Low: Volume: 23.08 23.25 22.95 5.02M 43.06B 34.85 15.14 17.60M Mkt Cap: 52Wk High: 52Wk Low: Avg. Vol: P/E: EP/E: Beta: EPS: 12.59 1.11 1.84 Dividend: Yield: Shares: Inst. Own: 0.35 1.51 1.86B 67% 43.06B 34.85 15.14 17.60M Open: High: Low: Volume: 23.08 23.25 22.95 5.02M 43.06B 34.85 15.14 17.60M Mkt Cap: 52Wk High: 52Wk Low: Avg. Vol: P/E: EP/E: Beta: EPS: 12.59 1.11 1.84 Dividend: Yield: Shares: Inst. Own: 0.35 1.51 1.86B 67% 43.06B 34.85 15.14 17.60M 52Wk High and 52Wk Low: These are the highest and lowest prices paid for the stock over the pas 52 weeks, excluding the latest day's trading. These prices will give you a sense of the direction the stock price is taking-whether its price is generally going up or down and by how much. Mkt Cap: Market Cap refers to the total value of all the company's common stock outstanding. 115 Common Stock Price Quotes The following is typical of what you would see if you looked at www.google.com/finance. The Walt Disney Company (Public NYSE: DIS) 23.19 Open: 23.08 Mkt Cap: -0.36(-1.53%) 23.25 52Wk High: Real-time: 12:40PM EDT High: Low: 22.95 52Wk Low: Volume: 5.02M Avg. Vol: Open: High: Low: Volume: 23.08 23.25 22.95 5.02M 43.06B 34.85 15.14 17.60M Mkt Cap: 52Wk High: 52Wk Low: Avg. Vol: P/E: EP/E: Beta: EPS: 12.59 1.11 1.84 Dividend: Yield: Shares: Inst. Own: 0.35 1.51 1.86B 67% 43.06B 34.85 15.14 17.60M Vol and Avg. Vol: Vol represents the number, or volume, of shares of stock that were traded so far during the day, while Avg Vol represents the average volume on a typical day. 116 P/E: EP/E: Beta: EPS: 12.59 1.11 1.84 Dividend: Yield: Shares: Inst. Own: 0.35 1.51 1.86B 67% P/E, F P/E: P/E stands for price-earnings ratio (P/E ratio, also called the "earning multiple"). The P/E ratio is the stock's price divided by the firm on a per-share basis over the previous 12 months. In effect, it states the multiple that investors are willing to pay for one dollar of earnings. High P/Es may result as investors are willing to pay more for a dollar of earnings because they believe that earnings will grow dramatically in the future. Low P/Es are generally interpreted as an indication of poor or risky future prospects. F P/E is the forward price-earnings ratio, and uses estimated earnings over next 12 months. If there is no estimate, it is not given. 117 118 Common Stock Price Quotes The following is typical of what you would see if you looked at www.google.com/finance. Common Stock Price Quotes The following is typical of what you would see if you looked at www.google.com/finance. The Walt Disney Company (Public NYSE: DIS) 23.19 Open: 23.08 Mkt Cap: -0.36(-1.53%) 23.25 52Wk High: Real-time: 12:40PM EDT High: Low: 22.95 52Wk Low: Volume: 5.02M Avg. Vol: The Walt Disney Company (Public NYSE: DIS) 23.19 Open: 23.08 Mkt Cap: -0.36(-1.53%) 23.25 52Wk High: Real-time: 12:40PM EDT High: Low: 22.95 52Wk Low: Volume: 5.02M Avg. Vol: P/E: EP/E: Beta: EPS: 43.06B 34.85 15.14 17.60M 12.59 1.11 1.84 P/E: EP/E: Beta: EPS: 12.59 1.11 1.84 Dividend: Yield: Shares: Inst. Own: Dividend: Yield: Shares: Inst. Own: 0.35 1.51 1.86B 67% 0.35 1.51 1.86B 67% P/E: EP/E: Beta: EPS: Beta: A measure of the relationship between an investment's returns and the market's returns and the market's returns. It will be discussed in detail later. 43.06B 34.85 15.14 17.60M 12.59 1.11 1.84 P/E: EP/E: Beta: EPS: 12.59 1.11 1.84 Dividend: Yield: Shares: Inst. Own: Dividend: Yield: Shares: Inst. Own: 0.35 1.51 1.86B 67% 0.35 1.51 1.86B 67% EPS: The earnings per share. 119 120 20 FIN 3701 Chapter 4 :Preferred and Common Stocks Common Stock Price Quotes The following is typical of what you would see if you looked at www.google.com/finance. Common Stock Price Quotes The following is typical of what you would see if you looked at www.google.com/finance. The Walt Disney Company (Public NYSE: DIS) 23.19 Open: 23.08 Mkt Cap: -0.36(-1.53%) 23.25 52Wk High: Real-time: 12:40PM EDT High: Low: 22.95 52Wk Low: Volume: 5.02M Avg. Vol: The Walt Disney Company (Public NYSE: DIS) 23.19 Open: 23.08 Mkt Cap: -0.36(-1.53%) 23.25 52Wk High: Real-time: 12:40PM EDT High: Low: 22.95 52Wk Low: Volume: 5.02M Avg. Vol: P/E: EP/E: Beta: EPS: 43.06B 34.85 15.14 17.60M 12.59 1.11 1.84 P/E: EP/E: Beta: EPS: 12.59 1.11 1.84 Dividend: Yield: Shares: Inst. Own: Dividend: Yield: Shares: Inst. Own: 0.35 1.51 1.86B 67% 0.35 1.51 1.86B 67% P/E: EP/E: Beta: EPS: Dividend and Yield: Dividend is the stock's annual cash dividend, while Yield is the dividend yield, which is obtained by dividing the firm's annual cash dividend by the closing price of the stock that day. 43.06B 34.85 15.14 17.60M 12.59 1.11 1.84 P/E: EP/E: Beta: EPS: 12.59 1.11 1.84 Dividend: Yield: Shares: Inst. Own: Dividend: Yield: Shares: Inst. Own: 0.35 1.51 1.86B 67% 0.35 1.51 1.86B 67% Shares, Inst. Own: Shares represents number of shares outstanding while Inst. Own identifies the percent of the shares outstanding that are owned by institutions such as mutual funds and institutional ownership. 121 122 Advantages of issuing a preferred stock • Preferred dividends do not have to be paid (important during periods of financial distress). Interest on debt must be paid. • Preferred stockholders cannot force the company into bankruptcy. • Preferred shareholders do not share in unusually high profits because the common stockholders are the real owners of the business. Pros & Cons 123 124 Advantages of issuing a preferred stock (cont.) Advantages of issuing a preferred stock (cont.) • A growth company can generate better earnings for its original owners by issuing preferred stock having a fixed dividend rate than by issuing common stock. • Preferred stock issuance does not dilute the ownership interest of common stockholders in terms of earnings participation and voting rights. • The company does not have to collateralize its assets as it may have to do if bonds are issued. • The debt to equity ratio is improved (lower D/E) Source: http://investments.academic.ru 125 126 21 FIN 3701 Chapter 4 :Preferred and Common Stocks Disadvantages of issuing a preferred stock To investors, a preferred stock offers the followings: • Preferred stock must offer a higher yield than corporate bonds because it carries greater risk (since preferred stock comes after bonds in corporate liquidation). • Preferred dividends are not tax deductible. • Preferred stock has higher flotation costs than bonds. • Preferred stock usually provides a constant return in the form of a fixed dividend payment. • Preferred stockholders come before common stockholders in the event of corporate bankruptcy. Source: http://www.teensguidetomoney.com Source: http://www.teensguidetomoney.com 127 Disadvantages to investors(cont.) • Return is limited because of the fixed dividend rate. • Prices of preferred stock fluctuate more than those of bonds because there is no maturity date on the stock. • Preferred stockholders cannot require the company to pay dividends if the firm has inadequate earnings. 128 Financing with common stock has the following advantages (Think as CFO): • The company is not required to pay fixed charges such as interest or dividends. • There is no repayment date or sinking fund requirement. • A common stock issue improves the company’s credit rating compared to a bond issue. For example, it improves the debtequity ratio. Source: http://img.ehowcdn.com Source: http://slimintrading.com 129 130 Debt vs. Equity Financing with common stock has disadvantages (cont.): • Dividends are not tax deductible. • Ownership interest is diluted. The additional voting rights might vote to remove the current ownership group from power. • Earnings and dividends must be spread over more shares outstanding. • The floatation costs of a common stock issue are higher than those for preferred stock and debt financing. Source: http://www.buzzle.com 131 Fixed Claim Tax Deductible High Priority in Financial Trouble Fixed Maturity No Management Control Debt Bank Debt Commercial Paper Corporate Bonds Residual Claim Not Tax Deductible Lowest Priority in Financial Trouble Infinite Management Control Hybrid Securities Convertible Debt Preferred Stock Option-linked Bonds Equity Owner's Equity Venture Capital Common Stock Warrants 132 22 FIN 3701 Chapter 4 :Preferred and Common Stocks Summary comparison of bonds and common stock Bonds • Bondholders are creditors. • No voting rights exist. • There is a maturity date. • Bondholders have prior claims on profits and assets in bankruptcy. • Interest payments represent fixed charges. Common Stock • Stockholders are owners. • Voting rights exist. • There is no maturity date. • Stockholders have residual claims on profits and assets in bankruptcy. • Dividend payments do not constitute fixed charges. Summary comparison of bonds and common stock (Cont.) Common Stock Bonds • There is no tax • Interest payments are deductibility for dividend deductible on the tax payments. return. • The rate of return • The rate of return required by required by bondholders stockholders is typically is typically lower than greater than that that required by required by stockholders. bondholders. 133 Summary of Discounted Cash Flow Valuation of Bonds, Preferred Stock, and Common Stock 135 Summary of Discounted Cash Flow Valuation of Bonds, Preferred Stock, and Common Stock (Cont.) 137 134 Summary of Discounted Cash Flow Valuation of Bonds, Preferred Stock, and Common Stock(cont.) 136 Summary of Discounted Cash Flow Valuation of Bonds, Preferred Stock, and Common Stock (Cont.) 138 23 FIN 3701 Chapter 4 :Preferred and Common Stocks Selecting a long-term financing method: An Introduction to Cost of Capital Selecting a long-term financing method: An Introduction to Cost of Capital (Cont.) • The cost and risk of alternative financing strategies. • Future trends in market conditions and their impact on future fund availability and interest rates. For example, if interest rates are expected to go up, the company will be better off financing with long-term debt at the currently lower interest rates. If stock prices are high, equity issuance may be preferred over debt. • The current debt-to-equity ratio. A very high ratio, for example, indicates financial risk, so additional funds should come from equity sources. 139 Selecting a long-term financing method: An Introduction to Cost of Capital (Cont.) • The type and amount of collateral required by long-term creditors. • The company’s ability to change financing strategy to adjust to changing economic conditions. For example, a company subject to large cyclical variations should have less debt because it may not be able to meet principal and interest at the low point of the cycle. If earnings are unstable and/or there is a highly competitive environment, more emphasis should be given to equity financing. 141 • The maturity dates of present debt instruments. For example, the company should avoid having all debt come due at the same time; in an economic downturn, it may not have adequate funds to meet required debt payments. • The restrictions in loan agreements. For instance, a restriction may place a cap on the allowable debt-equity ratio. 140 Selecting a long-term financing method • The amount, nature, and stability of internally generated funds. If earnings are stable, the company will be better able to meet debt obligations. • The adequacy of present lines of credit to meet current and future needs. • The inflation rate, since debt is repaid in cheaper dollars. 142 Selecting a long-term financing method Selecting a long-term financing method • The earning power and liquidity position of the company. For example, a liquid company is able to meet debt payments. • The nature and risk of assets. High-quality assets in terms of cash realizability allow for greater debt. • The nature of the product line. A company, for example, that faces obsolescence risk in its product line (e.g., computers) should refrain from overusing debt. • The uncertainty of large expenditures. If huge cash outlays may be required (e.g., for a lawsuit or the acquisition of another company), additional debt capacity should be available. • The tax rate. For example, a higher tax rate makes debt more attractive because interest expense is tax deductible. 143 144 24 FIN 3701 Chapter 4 :Preferred and Common Stocks Dividend Policy Definition: Dividend is the distribution of value to shareholders. Dividend Policy: What happens to the value of the firm as dividend is increased, holding everything else (capital budgets, borrowing) constant. Thus, it is a trade-off between retained earnings on one hand, and distributing cash or securities on the other. Dividend Policy and Stock Split Source: http://getpaydayloantoday.com 146 145 Cash Dividend Stock Dividend Example: $.5 for every share you hold Stock Repurchase2 Method Regular, regular + “extra” , special “an offer to purchase some or all Of shareholders’ shares in a corporation. The price offered is usually at a premium To the market price.” in the open market tender offer direct negotiation with major shareholders Dates: Reasons 1/15 Declaration Date 1/26 Ex-dividend Date 1/30 Record Date 2/25 Payment Date Alternative to "extra" or special dividend. Example. A company just sold a division and cannot use the proceeds for favorable investments. Only investors who hold the security prior to the ex-divided date receive the dividend. If management believes the stock is under-valued. 147 148 Stock Split Reference • Example. (2-1 split), i.e., for every share you own, now you own two. • Argument for splits: To make stock "more attractive" to investors?! • Value of firm is not expected to change. • Sheridan Titman, Arthur J. Keown, John D. Martin, Financial Management: Principles and Applications(12thed). New Jersey: Pearson & Prentice Hall Inc, 2014. Source: http://lh4.ggpht.com 149 150 25 FIN 3701 Chapter 4 :Preferred and Common Stocks References for images References for images • http://www.quotespin.com/54-warren-buffett/2/ • • http://bgr.com/2007/06/27/google-worth-600-a-share/ http://biomassmagazine.com/articles/5787/global-pellet-industry-on-therise-sustainability-key • http://i0.sinaimg.cn/cj/2014/0324/U10563P31DT20140324092425.jpg • • http://www.palmbeachperfumes.com/images/Preferred%20Stock%201o z%20Cologne%20Spray.jpg http://previous.presstv.ir/photo/20130910/bavarsad20130910182556567 .jpg • • http://images.computerwoche.de/images/computerwoche/bdb/1866369/ 890.jpg http://www.real-estate-washingtondc.com/Left-Image-WashingtonDC.jpg • http://www.universityofmakeup.com/wpcontent/uploads/Washington_DC-300x195.jpg • http://cebuhomeproperties.wordpress.com/ • http://fineartamerica.com/featured/that-very-old-house-murphyelliott.html • http://www.monterose.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/Screen-Shot2014-04-30-at-9.00.55-AM.png • http://mrwilliamsburg.com/search-homes-for-sale/ • http://2.imimg.com/data2/SE/XU/MY-3040106/real-estate-properties500x500.jpg • • http://img.ehowcdn.com/article-newthumbnail/ehow/images/a05/1g/ut/board-directors-rights-800x800.jpg http://iphone.theapplecollection.com/photos/14/med_black_and_gray_a pple_logo.jpg • • http://www.jobonomics.com/1/03/how-to-prepare-for-an-interview/ http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/c/cd/Facade_of_ New_York_Stock_Exchange.jpg/1280pxFacade_of_New_York_Stock_Exchange.jpg • http://sombomull.blogspot.com/2012/04/calculation-of-intrinsicvalue.html 151 152 References for images • http://latestlaptop.biz/dell-logo-png/ • http://www.gemind.com.br/wp-content/uploads/2011/12/novo-logohp.png http://investments.academic.ru/pictures/investments/img1966782_Sertifi kat_privilegirovannoy_aktsii_American_Cities_Company.png • • http://www.teensguidetomoney.com/investing/stock-types-common-preferred/ • http://img.ehowcdn.com/article-newthumbnail/ehow/images/a06/7j/fv/comparing-preferred-stock-commonstock-800x800.jpg • • http://slimintrading.com/agenda-dag-126/4635/ http://www.buzzle.com/articles/stock-investing/ • • http://getpaydayloantoday.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/payday-12703x420.jpg http://lh4.ggpht.com/-FdchvxWLWw/TenS0PwOMdI/AAAAAAAAEF0/K02ACNq7kz8/stock%252520split%2 5255B1%25255D.jpg?imgmax=800 • http://s2.hubimg.com/u/2091319_f520.jpg 153 26