Department of International Relations
University of Dhaka
Spring 2023 Semester
IR # 305: Comparative Foreign Policies
Mapping the Domestic and External Determinants of Foreign Policy Decisions
Exercise
Identify one major foreign policy decision for each of the 5 VETO Powers (China, France, Russia, UK, and
USA). Which domestic and external factors have determined their decision? Look at the open source
literature (media reports – CNN, BBC, AL Jazeera; Think tank reports/commentaries – Carnegie
Endowment, Council on Foreign Relations, International Institute for Strategic Studies; Official websites
– Parliamentary proceedings, Ministry of Foreign Affairs/Ministry of Defence e-documents; Senior
officials’ statements (heads of states/governments/ministers/top bureaucrats) and find answers to the
following questions. Fill up the table for your country-case. Insert foot notes for references. We will
discuss your findings during the class on Sunday, the 28th May 2023.
For each of the domestic/external determinant, think of the three questions:

Actor: Who played a key role behind the decision? Is it the president? Prime Minister? Defence
Minister? Or the head of intelligence? What is the legal basis for his/her decision-making
power? Is it the legal basis or any informal practice that has given him/her the decision-making
power?

Why: What ideas have driven the decision? Has the actor received the idea from a scientific
study or from perception or from any intelligence assessment?

Interest: What does the actor gain (and lose) from the decision and its outcome? Does the
decision-maker see his/her popularity/approval ratings rising because of the decision? Does
he/she calculate any possible loss/damage that may come due to the decision? How he/she
weigh the cost-benefit analysis?
Roll
Great
Powers
Example:
Country
XYZ
1-25
26-50
51-75
76-100
101-Rest
Major Foreign
Policy DecisionMaker
Use of force
against Country
ABC
Domestic Determinant
 National leader
(President, Prime
Minister, Chancellor)
 Military Elite’s influence
 Parliamentary mandate
 Political Party’s
provocation
External Determinant
 Threat from a
Superpower
 Incentive/support
from regional allies
China
France
Russia
UK
USA
1
Sample Foreign policy Decision Analysis Brief
Apu Saha: Russia (Roll – JN 039056)
Russia’s Foreign Policy: A Brief Analysis [400 words/1 page]
Introduction
Russia's annexation of Crimea in 2014 holds significant importance for regional and global politics as it
led to a major territorial change in Europe and impacted their relations and reshaping the balance of
power1. The decision is closely tied to Russia's geopolitics, considering Crimea's strategic significance,
historical ties, and the presence of a Russian-speaking population in the region.
Data Sources
The analysis is based on a combination of data sources, including media reports from CNN, and BBC,
reports/commentaries from OHCHR as well as from parliamentary proceedings.
Analysis
1. Summary of the foreign policy decision: The foreign policy decision was Russia's annexation of
Crimea, which involved the forcible incorporation of the Crimean Peninsula into the Russian
Federation. This decision violated Ukraine's territorial integrity and sparked international
condemnation and sanctions against Russia.
2. Key Actors involved in the decision process: The key actor behind the decision was Vladimir
Putin, the President of Russia. As the President, he held significant decision-making power and
played a central role in the annexation of Crimea2.
3. Ideas that have driven the decision process: The decision was driven by several ideas, including
the protection of Russian-speaking populations in Ukraine, the defense of Russia's historical and
strategic interests in Crimea, and the prevention of NATO's expansion in the region. The idea of
safeguarding Russia's sphere of influence and countering perceived Western encroachment also
influenced the decision.
4. Interests of the Actors: The interests of the decision-makers revolved around securing strategic
advantages in the Black Sea region, protecting Russia's naval fleet stationed in Sevastopol,
maintaining influence over Ukraine, preventing its integration into Western institutions, and
safeguarding Russian geopolitical interests3. The decision was also aimed at maintaining
domestic popularity and projecting strength internationally, although it resulted in significant
diplomatic and economic costs for Russia.
Conclusion
The decision-making process of the annexation of Crimea was dominated by Vladimir Putin as the key
actor, driven by ideas centered on protecting Russian-speaking populations, countering Western
influence, and securing strategic interests. The interests of the decision-makers encompassed territorial
control, geopolitical influence, and maintaining domestic popularity. However, the decision also had
negative consequences, including international condemnation and sanctions against Russia, which
altered regional and global dynamics.
1
https://edition.cnn.com/2023/03/26/europe/war-in-crimea-russia-ukraine-intl/index.html
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26686949
3
https://www.ohchr.org/sites/default/files/2022-04/association-reintegration-crimea.pdf
2
2
Each student is required to submit a 1-page analysis as per the above-mentioned sample analysis
template on Sunday, the 28th May.
3