Interest Rates and Bond Valuation Chapter 6 Sections 6.1 to 6.3, 6.5 Omit: Section 6.4 2. VALUATION OF BONDS Bond Markets A bond is a long-term debt instrument (a loan contract) Issuers such as governments and corporations sell bonds to raise money BOND ISSUANCE, t=0 $PRICE BUYER BOND BOND ISSUER 3 BOND CASH FLOWS, t=1,…,T BOND ISSUANCE, t=1,…,T $COUPONS BUYER BOND ISSUER 4 1,000 50 Coupon = 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 PMT = 50 Face Value or Future value = 1,000 5 PV = Price of Bond Coupon Face Value 6 TERMINOLOGY The price of a bond is the present value of all future coupon payments and the final principal payment The maturity of a bond is the length of time during which the owner will receive interest payments on the investment. The coupon rate determines the dollar interest that the buyer of the bond receives annually from the issuer. The coupon rate is expressed as a percentage of the face value (the principal amount) of the bond. Current Yield (CY) is defined as the ratio of the annual coupon as percentage of current market price. Current market Price = 900 Coupon = 90 Face Value = 1,000 Coupon rate = 90/1,000 = 9% Current Yield = 90/900 = 10% 7 Current Yield vs Yield to maturity (YTM) Current Yield (CY) is defined as the ratio of the annual coupon as percentage of current market price. Yield or Yield to maturity (YTM) is the overall interest rate earned by an investor who buys a bond at the market price and holds it until maturity. Mathematically, YTM is the discount rate at which the sum of all future cash flows (from coupons and principal repayment) equals the price of the bond. K = YTM = Discount rate = Market Interest rate 8 BOND CASH FLOWS 0 1 P0 C 2 C 3 T C FV + C WHERE k = YIELD TO MATURITY ON THE BOND Same formula but in a different way 9 Here’s a bond issued by the Yukon Steel Company. The face value of the bond is $1000, and it has 8 years to maturity. Other relevant info is summarized below. Coupon rate = 10% Maturity = 8 years Yield = 7% What is the price of this bond? FV = 1,000 PMT = 10% of 1,000 = 100 I/Y = 7% P/Y= 1 C/Y = 1 PV = ?? CPT PV = 1,179.14 N=8 END The bond is selling at a premium. 1,179.14 – 1,000 = 179.14 10 Now suppose interest rates go up and the yield on bonds goes up to 11%. The face value of the bond is $1000, and it has 8 years to maturity. Other relevant info is summarized below. Coupon rate = 10% Maturity = 8 years Yield = 11% What effect will it have on the price of Yukon Steel bonds?? FV = 1,000 I/Y = 11% PV = ?? CPT PV = 948.54 PMT = 10% of 1,000 = 100 P/Y= 1 C/Y = 1 N=8 END The price fell because Yield (Competitive interest rate increased) The bond is now selling at a discount. 1,000 – 948.54 = 51.46 11 Coupon rate = 10 % > YTM= 7% Price 1,179.14 > Face value=1000 Rule : whenever CR > YTM Bond is issued at a premium Coupon rate = 10 % < YTM= 11% Price 948.54 < Face value= 1,000 Rule : whenever CR < YTM Bond is issued at a discount Coupon rate = 10 % = YTM= 10% (Try it yourself) Price 1,000 < Face value= 1,000 Rule : whenever CR = YTM Bond is issued at Par or face value Par means Face Value 12 LO1 Bonds… Terminology Recap… • Bond • Par value (face value) • Coupon rate • Coupon payment • Maturity date • Yield or Yield to maturity 13 For Canadian Bonds ▪ Semi-annual pay bonds form the overwhelming standard for borrowing in the Canadian capital market. ▪ Bonds generally pay a fixed annual coupon rate of interest in two equal semi-annual payments. Most bonds have a fixed maturity date. 14 LO1 The Bond Indenture • Contract between the bond issuer and the bondholders. It includes: • • • • • • The basic terms of the bonds The total amount of bonds issued A description of property used as security, if applicable Sinking fund provisions Call provisions Details of protective covenants 15 Registered versus Bearer Registered Bond: A registered bond has its owner's name and contact information recorded with the issuing entity, ensuring coupon payments are correctly distributed. Bearer bonds: Which don't record the owner's info, are the opposite of registered bonds. Bearer bonds are gone if lost Holders of bearer bonds will not be notified of changes in corporate policies However, bearer bonds have lower transaction costs 16 Different Types of Bonds • Mortgage bond: A mortgage bond is secured by a mortgage, or a pool of mortgages, that are typically backed by real estate holdings and real property. • Debenture: A debenture is a type of bond or other debt instrument that is not secured by collateral • Senior Debt: A loan and obligations which are prioritized for repayment in the case of bankruptcy • Subordinate (“Junior Debt”): A loan secured by collateral (assets) that are to be paid if a company goes into default—but only after higher-priority debts (senior debts) are settled 17 Different Types of Bonds • Callable: Also known as a redeemable bond, is a bond that the issuer may redeem before it reaches the stated maturity date. A callable bond allows the issuing company to pay off their debt early. • Extendable: A long-term debt security that includes an option which allows the bondholder to extend its initial maturity to a later date. • Retractable: Also known as variable-rate demand note, is a debt security that features a put option which allows the holder to force the issuer to redeem the bond before maturity at it's face value. • Convertible: a type of debt security that provides an investor with a right or an obligation to exchange the bond for a predetermined number of shares in the issuing company 18 Different Types of Bonds • Zero coupon: A bond that pays no coupon • Floating rate: A bond that has a variable interest rate • Income Bonds: a bond that pays interest only if the issuing entity has earned income. 19 • Bond Covenant: A bond covenant sets out certain activities that must be undertaken, or what activities are forbidden. • Negative (Restrictive ) Covenants: Activities that are forbidden • Positive (Affirmative ) Covenants: Activities that must be undertaken • Repayment Provisions: A contract clause that says how money borrowed must be paid back. • Sinking Fund: A type of fund that is created and set up purposely for repaying debt. The owner of the account sets aside a certain amount of money regularly and uses it only for a specific purpose. 20 • DBRS, S&P, Moody’s (These rating companies that charge for ratings) • Rating reflects ability to pay or Likelihood of timely repayment • BBB or better for investment grade 21 • Firms provide info, so only as good as what is disclosed. • Bond price will fall when downgraded and rise when upgraded. • Unrated debt (a.k.a. Junk Bonds): • Junk bonds are bonds that carry a higher risk of default than most bonds issued by corporations and governments. • Junk bonds are riskier. They will be rated BB or lower by Standard & Poor's and Ba or lower by Moody's. These lower-rated bonds pay a higher yield to investors. Their buyers are getting a bigger reward for taking a greater risk. 22 Good to know • The price of a bond is more sensitive to changes in interest rates when the YTM level is low. • The price of a bond is more sensitive to changes in interest rates when the maturity is high. (% change in price will be higher than for short term) • However, the higher the coupon rate the less sensitive the bond price will be to changes in interest rates. COMM308 - Tutorial Session #4 23 • What is the face value of a bond with coupon payments of $50 every six months, a current value of $1,172.41, a remaining term of 10 years, and a risk-premium of 5%? The current risk-free rate is 3%. Choose the closest answer. It’s a semi-annual bond. PV = 1,174.41 K = Rf + Rp , PMT = 50 N= 2 x 10 = 20 Rf = Risk Free Rate, Rp = Risk premium I/Y = (3 + 5)% = 8% CPT FV = 1,080 P/Y = 2 C/Y = 2 Alternate Solution: PV = 1,174.41 PMT = 50 N= 2 x 10 = 20 I/Y = (8/2)% = 4% (QR semi-annually to ESR) CPT FV = 1,080 END END 24 What is the face value of a bond with coupon payments of $60 every six months, a current value of $1,300, a remaining term of 10 years, and a riskpremium of 5%? The current risk-free rate is 3%. Choose the closest answer. PV = I/Y = CPT FV = PMT = N= P/Y = C/Y = BEG or END Alternate Solution: PV = 1,174.41 PMT = 50 N= 2 x 10 = 20 I/Y = (QR semi-annually to ESR) CPT FV = BEG or END 25 What is the face value of a bond with coupon payments of $60 every six months, a current value of $1,300, a remaining term of 10 years, and a riskpremium of 5%? The current risk-free rate is 3%. Choose the closest answer. PV = 1,300 K = Rf + Rp , PMT = 60 N= 2 x 10 = 20 Rf = Risk Free Rate, Rp = Risk premium I/Y = (3 + 5)% = 8% CPT FV = 1,061.78 P/Y = 2 C/Y = 2 Alternate Solution: PV = 1,174.41 PMT = 60 N= 2 x 10 = 20 I/Y = (8/2)% = 4% (QR semi-annually to ESR) CPT FV = 1,061.78 END END 26 • Dominion Groceries Inc. has a 9-year, 6% annual coupon bond outstanding with a $1,000 par value. Fresh Produce Inc. has a 10year, 5% annual coupon bond with a $1,000 par value. Both bonds currently have a yield to maturity of 5.5%. Which of the following statements is correct if the market yield increases to 5.75%? • a. Both bonds would decrease in value by 2.50%. • b. The Dominion bond will decrease in value by 1.89%. • c. The Fresh bond will increase in value by $18.17. • d. The Dominion bond will decrease in value by $17.57. • e. The Fresh bond will increase in value by 1.70%. 27 • Dominion Groceries Inc. has a 9-year, 6% annual coupon bond outstanding with a $1,000 par value. Fresh Produce Inc. has a 10year, 5% annual coupon bond with a $1,000 par value. Both bonds currently have a yield to maturity of 5.5%. Which of the following statements is correct if the market yield increases to 5.75%? • Dominion Groceries: N= 9 OLD I/Y = 5.5% PMT = 60 FV = 1,000 P/Y = 1 C/Y = 1 New I/Y = 5.75% CPT PV (5.5)= 1,034.76 CPT PV (5.75)= 1,017.19 Change = 1,017.19 – 1,034.76 = - 17.57 Fresh Produce: N = 10 OLD I/Y= 5.5% P/Y = 1 C/Y = 1 CPT PV (5.5)= 962.31 CPT PV (5.75)= 944.14 FV = 1,000 New I/Y = 5.75 PMT = 50 Change = 962.31 – 944.14 = - 18.17 28 • A zero-coupon bond with a face value of $1,000 is issued with an initial price of $415.50. The bond matures in 10 years. What is the implicit interest, in dollars, for the first year of the bond's life? Use semiannual compounding. PMT = 0 FV = 1,000 PV = 415.50 N=2 x 10 = 20 P/Y = 2 C/Y = 2 I/Y = ??? CPT = 8.978% , which is QR Semi-annual rate ESR = (8.978/2) % = 4.489% EAR = (1 + 4.489)2 – 1 = 9.179% Interest in 1st year = 415.50 * 9.179% = 38.14 (Answer) 29