EBOOK Four principles for trading in the zone CMCMARKETS.COM Master preparation and strategy with insights from 15 of the top traders 1 INTRODUCTION Parallels between trading and windsurfing Keeping a cool head, sticking to a plan and trusting your gut during unpredictable conditions are important life skills. Whether it be windsurfing in gusty waves or trading in uncertain times, the same principles are necessary to stay ahead of the storm and have a thrilling ride This ebook comprises insights from some of the world’s top traders interviewed on the Opto Sessions podcast, including chess master and hedge fund adviser Adam Robinson; technical analyst and volume-weighted average price expert Brian Shannon; chart technician Chris Kimble; author of the Market Wizards series Jack Schwager; co-founder of the Quantum Fund Jim Rogers; and investment strategist Kiril Sokoloff, to name a few. Tapping into their combined years of trading experience, the following four chapters explore the need for focus, discipline, and confidence to develop a unique trading approach. From perfecting the craft of preparation and controlling your emotions, to honing a sophisticated strategy and intuition, they examine how to stay on course even when the waves are bearing down. Their knowledge testifies that by mastering the craft of trading and finding your flow, a trader can find an edge. CMC Markets is an execution-only service provider. The material (whether or not it states any opinions) is for general information purposes only, and does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives. Nothing in this material is (or should be considered to be) financial, investment or other advice on which reliance should be placed. No opinion given in the material constitutes a recommendation by CMC Markets or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. 2 CMC Markets does not endorse or offer opinion on the trading strategies used by the author. Their trading strategies do not guarantee any return and CMC Markets shall not be held responsible for any loss that you may incur, either directly or indirectly, arising from any investment based on any information contained herein. —Thomas Traversa 3 Weather conditions can be unpredictable at the best of times, which is why professional windsurfer Thomas Traversa finds it crucial to be prepared when chasing storms CHAPTER 1 “I always start from the place I want to go” PREPARATION FIND YOUR FLOW PREPARATION Having a plan is an essential part of a winning trading approach. Successful traders make a habit of reviewing and refining their approaches to suit changing market conditions KEY POINTS: Cultivate patience Identify personal strengths Play the game Develop a research style Utilise drivers Patience is a virtue Much like riding waves, the market is a waiting game. Timing is everything. Set a goal, rehearse, and practise discipline until the right time to strike. “It’s about waiting for those isolated trades to come along and having the patience not to do anything until the right moment,” says Jack Schwager, the author of the renowned book series Market Wizards, where he interviews the world’s most influential traders. The latest instalment of the series, Unknown Market Wizards, highlights the calm strategy of so-called unicorn trader Amrit Sall, whose patient approach has returned an average 337% over 13 years. At the core of his trading philosophy, the author explains, is that patience coupled with extreme discipline can help Sall to not get distracted by trades that aren’t yet profitable. Pick an opening gambit “It is about waiting for those isolated trades to come along and having the patience not to do anything until the right moment” — Jack Schwager Opto Sessions #35 4 Patience is also essential when thinking several moves ahead. Adam Robinson, who is the founder of Robinson Global Strategies, where he advises some of the world’s leading hedge funds, has long advocated the importance of this skill. “If you want an edge in the market, you have to choose a system built around your own idiosyncrasies and talents”, he tells Opto. Also a US chess master, mentored by Bobby Fischer in the lead up to the latter winning the world championship, Robinson uses the game to explain strategy. “Chess masters learn that there are certain types of positions that they do better in. Some people “Every trader needs a system that is tailored to their strengths. You learn that over time” —Adam Robinson Opto Sessions #53 like slow methodical games. Other people like games with a lot of tactics. You learn to steer the game to those situations.” Drawing a parallel with markets, he explains that some traders may perform better in different asset classes, strategies, market conditions or even timeframes. Like chess, trading is a strategic game. Traders need focus and discipline, and a method to come out ahead. Nonetheless, success and fulfilment often come by focusing on more than just returns. Learn to play the game When it comes to trading, Robinson references Winston Churchill’s famous quote: “war is a game that is played with a smile.” If you can’t smile, he adds, you may be overtraining, or investing too much capital. “You must be playful… if you can’t, then you’re fear based. And then you’re in trouble.” Playful does not equate to frivolous – there may be a lot at stake. Rather, traders may be rewarded by viewing the markets as a game, or a puzzle. “I look at this as a giant game of strategy,” says technical analysis expert Chris Kimble, founder of Kimble Charting Solutions. “For me, the market is a movie that never ends. I am always fascinated for the next chapter.” Treating the market as a game can help you to remain objective and focused on goals. A trader that wants to buy low and sell high will take extensive preparation to reliably and consistently achieve this. “None of this is easy,” says Jim Rogers, chairman of Beeland Interests “Everybody has to have their own style” — Jim Rogers Opto Sessions #6 The importance of mental rehearsal 5 Mental imaging, which is when a trader visualises the step-by-step process of executing a trade, is another important part of a successful research plan. Schwager points out that the technique was used by a trader who, “just like an athlete will mentally think of every turn and how they will handle it, [and] Sall does the same thing in trading.” and co-founder of Quantum Fund, which famously returned 4,200% over a decade. “I wish it were. You have to be willing to do a lot of research and put the time in to learn.” A unique research style Although preparation is central to all trading journeys, research strategies vary. “Everybody has to have their own style,” affirms Rogers. “I knew some phenomenal shortterm traders on Wall Street [during the Iraq War] who did not have to know if the war had come to an end or not [to register profits].” He recalls that these traders focused on leveraging their historical technical analysis to succeed; “one of these traders barely knew what the companies did, but he knew the symbols and trading patterns of some 100 companies. And he traded them every day.” In contrast, Schwager found that Amrit Sall used critical self-evaluation to take preparedness to another level. “He keeps rigorous logs on trades going back since he started, some 13 years ago. What the circumstances were, what his strategy was, what worked and what didn’t work. He then categorises this information into different types of situations, so whenever there is an event coming, he is able to draw on past analogues to that type of situation.” Follow the drivers While some traders focus on micro-level factors affecting the price of assets, others look at the bigger picture. Kiril Sokoloff, chairman and founder of global investment strategy and research firm 13D Research, says it’s important to understand the impact of the macro-economy on markets. “One of my strengths is [being able] to understand what the key driver of things is,” he tells Opto. “For example, if you look at inflation, since 1973 it’s been driven by oil prices across the world. Oil prices are probably by far the most interesting and most important commodity, but are the hardest to analyse — it’s almost impossible.” It’s about spotting the factors that drive prices, Sokoloff explains. “Back in 2002, commodities had been in a 20-year bear market. China was investing massively in infrastructure, but the most interesting [trade] to me was oil. We did a lot of work, and we were right — it saw almost a seven-fold rise in six years.” Sokoloff, who also co-founded the first pure Asian hedge fund after identifying China’s standout potential, warns there are many contrasting macro factors that can influence an economy. But if you work out the most dominant, you might reap the rewards. “Because there are so many different factors and variables, you have to be very humble,” he says. “It’s about identifying the one factor that you think is the chief driver of the whole cycle.” “One of my strengths is being able to understand what the key driver of things is” — Kiril Sokoloff Opto Sessions #129 Explore our award-winning trading platform* Whatever the next step in your trading journey, our industry-leading platform can help you get there. • 12,000+ global instruments • Tight spreads, and no hidden fees • No.1 Web Platform 2023* LEARN MORE *Awarded No.1 Web Platform, ForexBrokers.com Awards 2023; No.1 Platform Technology, ForexBrokers.com Awards 2022; Best Mobile Trading Platform, ADVFN International Financial Awards 2022 6 76% of retail investor accounts lose money when spread betting and/or trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. —Thomas Traversa 7 When Traversa is riding a wave, he’s also surfing a powerful set of emotions that require control, understanding and discipline CHAPTER 2 “When you feel it is the right moment, just go” PSYCHOLOGY FIND YOUR FLOW PSYCHOLOGY Markets don’t always act logically, which is why a trader’s thinking is one of the most crucial factors to acheiving alpha. It defines their decision-making abilities, talents, experiences and risk-tolerance KEY POINTS: Stay on your own course Riding out volatile conditions Emotional capital Learning when to act Having confidence and conviction “If you are always looking for things that are reasonably priced, it gives you a natural contrarian slant” — Lyn Alden Opto Sessions #56 8 Be your own person “This is an individual sport,” author Brian Shannon, who has been a swing trader for over 30 years, describes trading in the markets. “Some people think it’s a team sport and you want a network of people, but I tend to get distracted by other peoples’ opinions.” With numerous books on the subject, including Technical Analysis Using Multiple Time Frames, he adds that, over the years he has learned to trust his own analysis of the market and maintained a focus on discipline. “That allows me to be in this business as long as I have.” Following a strategy requires the self-belief to shut out external noise. Even contrarian traders must identify the precise moment to take action. Lyn Alden, who provides equity research and investment strategies through her company Lyn Alden Investment Strategy, leans towards a contrarian approach. However, she cautions that, “it’s not knee-jerk”. “There are certain times when the consensus makes sense and you want to ride those long-term trends,” she tells Opto. Explaining where the individualised strategy comes into play, she says “there are certain turning points or certain extremes where it's important to take a step back and maybe start looking in the other direction”. The key, adds Alden, is to follow your own instincts about when to follow the herd and when to cut loose. “You don’t start out with wisdom as a trader. Wisdom is gained” — Peter Brandt Opto Sessions #30 On the one hand, we have capital drawdowns, which “can be defined in terms of depth and length,” says Peter Brandt, who founded proprietary trading firm Factor over 40 years ago. Just as importantly, he adds, “there are also emotional drawdowns. In some ways, a big emotional drawdown can be more severe and take a longer period of time to climb out of than if you get hit hard on a bad position”. Brandt, who also wrote Diary of a Professional Commodity Trader, tells Opto, “there have been a lot of trades I would have very high expectations for, and they were big disappointments. Early in my career I spent too much time thinking about them. They dragged me down.” Over time he came to the realisation that, “markets do not take me personally – why should I take my losses personally? It’s a psychology of trading that probably would have helped me early on.” Safeguard your emotions Understanding sentimental assets Even beginner traders quickly learn that discipline, pragmatism, and composure are vital in the market. This means not becoming over-confident when things go well, and understanding and contextualising your own emotions when the waves get rough. Just how a windsurfer taps into impulses to ride a particular wave, emotional intelligence entails understanding the collective state of mind. This emotion not only fluctuates in different situations, but also with different asset classes. Mish Schneider, co-founder and director of trading education at MarketGauge, finds that trading certain assets conjures different feelings. “Trading stocks has an emotional component to it of course, because this is about people. Trading commodities also has an incredibly emotional component to it because these are raw materials – things we need to live.” Unlike bonds and treasuries, trading physical assets can be a much different experience. Indeed, even when using leverage, the emotional stakes are far higher. Schneider, whose 40 years of experience have included 13 years as one of a handful of female members of several New York Commodity Exchanges in the World Trade Centre, elaborates that, “nobody needs Facebook to live, but we do need food and basic raw materials for our homes.” won’t work’. Don’t worry about being wrong, and be resilient enough to get back up and reinvent yourself.” Make a winning habit “Commodities are traded very emotionally” — Mish Schneider Opto Sessions #20 Finding resilience 9 The ability to recover emotionally from a challenging day in the market is crucial to preserve confidence – and to avoid yesterday’s waves from adversely affecting you. Resilience is not only about getting back on the board. It’s also about having the confidence to stick with your gameplan. This, in itself, is an edge. Mark Yusko has managed almost $2bn in discretionary and non-discretionary assets as CEO and chief investment officer of Morgan Creek Capital Management, which he founded nearly 20 years ago. Humility is a key part of the learning experience, he considers: “I separate humility from confidence and conviction. I have strong opinions, but they’re loosely held because I believe I have the humility to say, ‘I was wrong, and I’m going to move on and try again.’” On the ability to try again and follow a gameplan, Yusko adds, “another edge is resilience. The ability to go from failure to failure with increasing enthusiasm. As Thomas Edison said, ‘I never failed, I just found 10,000 ways that Having confidence in your own ability – understanding whether losses are merely blips or if you should adjust your strategy – is key to charting your path through the waves. “Realise that if you have been losing for three weeks, it might take a month to get it back. That is part of trading. Do not look at it one trade at a time, look at it as ‘I'm building back on my process of winning’,” says Brian Shannon. The 2010 founder of AlphaTrends, an online community that provides swing trading analysis and education, tells Opto that keeping strong conviction is important to sticking to a plan. “If it's been a week where you’re just bleeding, examine what you’re doing: ‘am I trying to buy dips, rather than wait for evidence that buyers are coming back?’ Slow down, trade smaller share sizes and then start to add size.” A traders state of mind Learning when to act, and when to stay on the same course or make an adjustment is vital in trading. As is learning to weather volatile conditions. A successful trader understands psychology, in terms of both their own behaviour and collective behaviour. Understanding whether the herd’s move is the result of a well-judged decision or due to being carried along on impulse is a vital trading tool “Resilience is the ability to go from failure to failure with increasing enthusiasm” — Mark Yusko Opto Sessions #59 —Thomas Traversa 10 Controlling the wind, while balancing himself on a wave, Traversa requires different techniques for varying weather patterns and conditions CHAPTER 3 “Nowadays we all want to pretend we control everything” STRATEGY FIND YOUR FLOW STRATEGY What do you want to achieve in trading? For the best chance of succeding in the markets, look at your financial goals and personal strengths to help formulate a market beating framework that is both adaptable and concise KEY POINTS: The precision of price Cut through the noise Markets are uncontrollable “I want to be aware of potential catalysts for a stock, like earnings, or for the market, like a jobs report” — Brian Shannon Opto Sessions #11 11 Get a feel for the market Just as the world’s top windsurfer, whose standout talent, preparation, and experience can’t control the weather, a trader can’t tame the wild swings of financial markets. Shannon argues that market sentiment makes technical indicators more important than fundamentals in short-term trading. Nevertheless, he underscores the necessity of remaining aware of potential contextual opportunities and risks. “I want to be aware of potential catalysts for a stock, like earnings, or for the market, like a jobs report”, he says, explaining that this enables him to manage risk or maintain a cash position until the appropriate time. Because the market is so unpredictable, Shannon argues that price is the greatest indicator. In a similar vein, so-called 50 Pips, an anonymous trader who specialises in price action, suggests to Opto that, “price is really all you need”. He explains, “indicators can add layers of granularity, but if you don’t really understand what you’re looking at [in a chart], everything else is far harder”. Remain calm and carry on Regardless of the metrics prioritised by an individual’s trading strategy, the market will always pose a degree of unpredictability. To find success amid these conditions, it’s pivotal that traders remain in control of their psychological state and follow their gameplan. Chess player Robinson believes this is one of trading’s greatest challenges. “Trading is a difficult human endeavour, in the sense you have to control your thinking “People spend far too little time trying to understand what price is telling them” — 50 Pips Opto Sessions #5 Sentiment moves markets Legendary investor Warren Buffett, the founder of Berkshire Hathaway, once said: “In the long term, [the market] weighs all the fundamental factors that come into play. But in the short term, it is emotional, it is a vote. It moves around quickly”. and your emotions,” he says. He references martial artist Bruce Lee’s quote that, “one of the best lessons you can learn in life is to master how to remain calm”. “Don’t get despondent when trades move against you, and don’t get too excited when they are moving in your favour. Be detached. If it doesn’t work out, that is okay. No system will work [every time]. It’s always a matter of probabilities.” “Do not get despondent when trades move against you, and do not get too excited when they are moving in your favour” — Adam Robinson Opto Sessions #53 Weather anomalies are not uncommon No matter how well a trader follows their system and remains calm, they’re always at the mercy of a power greater than themselves. “I fundamentally believe that I know absolutely nothing,” says Keith McCullough, founder and CEO of investment research and online financial media company Hedgeye, “and that the market knows most things”. Adapting to ever-evolving market movements “It is my job to catch up to the market and stay with the market” — Keith McCullough Opto Sessions #82 12 The best traders leverage their edge by researching, knowing and understanding their strengths and their ideal conditions – and then choosing their trades carefully. That way they know that when their big chance comes along, they are ready to strike. McCullough, who has managed money at The Carlyle Group’s hedge fund, Magnetar Capital, Falconhenge Partners, and Dawson-Herman Capital Management, opts for a multi-factor and multi-duration model to forecast market activity. “Multi-factor is real-time price, volume, volatility, and the volatility of volatility. That model is my signal,” he explains. “I run it not just on one duration, but on [multi-duration]: the immediate-term trade duration, three weeks or less; the intermediateterm trend duration, which is three months or more; and then long-term, tail-risk duration, which to me is inside of three years.” This helps the contributing editor at Bloomberg Television read the waves of the market. —Thomas Traversa 13 Sometimes it’s an instinctive feeling that Traversa gets, which tells him it’s the time to go. There isn’t any conscious reasoning, it just takes trust CHAPTER 4 “It is not about going against the current. It is about finding a way to play with it” INTUITION FIND YOUR FLOW INTUITION Maintaining a unique trading edge does not require outsmarting everyone else in the markets and diverging from the pack. It takes knowing your advantages and shortcomings Maintain a unique edge Outsmarting the professionals Track your progress Find a distinctive flow Critically assess An authentic advantage As a trader you do need to find your individual flow, your own trading zone. Hedge fund manager turned podcast host, Ted Seides, says that each trader’s “own authentic competitive advantage” is their best source of finding ‘alpha’. “What is it that you do well, that you know about, that other people don’t know as much?” Seides, who headed his own multi-billion-dollar hedge fund, Protégé Partners, for over a decade, and whose podcast Capital Allocators has been downloaded over 10 million times, adds, “you can be yourself and get the outcomes that you desire, by figuring out what that is and how you can pursue that in the markets”. Leverage retail’s technical edge “Some people are wired in a certain way that have made them truly exceptional investors” — Ted Seides Opto Sessions #126 14 It may be a challenge for retail traders to outgun resourceheavy institutions. Nonetheless, individuals can excel if they pick the right strategy in the right conditions. “Where retail traders can benefit is understanding what they know well and their individual competitive advantage, and then trying to figure out a way to express that within their portfolio” says Seides, rather than being required to answer to boards and other stakeholders as an institutional investor. Moreover, price action trader 50 Pips suggests that retail traders are better positioned to compete on technical analysis than on the fundamentals. In the case of technical analysis, both types of investors have the same chart and “the indicators are the same for everybody”, he explains. In contrast, when it comes to fundamental analysis, institutional investors could have “teams of 50 people, or people with “You learn what you do well by trying different things” — Adam Robinson Opto Sessions #53 hundreds of millions of dollars with computers far smarter than you” all trying to identify opportunity and risk. Indeed, Brandt, author of Diary of a Professional Commodity Trader, agrees that being a ‘classical chartist’ helped his trading career take off. “It gave me a mechanism for determining the timing of trades – when I get in and where I get in. I think more importantly, it defined for me where my risks were.” He cautions, however, that an individualised approach is essential. “Charting is probably not for everybody, but it is for people who think in a certain way, who want to make sense of markets and have some sense of the order of markets”. Review your performance One of the best ways to find a flow is to keep a detailed record of past trades, to help review why things went right or wrong. Robinson tells Opto, “when you enter a trade, it’s very important that you be able to articulate to yourself why you are entering the trade,” adding that it is crucial to have an entry and exit condition before entering the position. “You could write one paragraph, ‘I am entering this trade because it is oversold, and there is evidence of buying in the sector. I am going to enter at $51.50 on a buy stop and I will exit with a 10% trailing stop loss.’” He explains that logging these trades will help you identify what works for you and refine your system going forwards. “Let’s say your sell stop is hit on day two. Now you want to do a post-mortem. We need to do that after every trade, win or lose. What did I do right? What did I do wrong?” Learning methodically about yourself, says Robinson, will give you the edge you seek. Trust your instincts 15 An edge is a unique set of strengths that are characterised by individuality. While a trader might categorise themselves as following one general strategy or another, it can be dangerous to blindly follow a strategy for its own sake. “I usually invest in something that is ignored and cheap and struggling,” says Beeland Interests Chairman, Rogers, adding that this inherently aligns with the definition of contrarian investing. However, he reiterates that this is not for the sake of following a contrarian strategy. “I’m buying the cheap, bankrupt company because I think it’s going to be a good investment. I’m not sitting around saying, ‘I'm going to be a contrarian.’ I’m looking for opportunities.” For example, Dr Jeff Ross, founder of healthcareand technology-centred hedge fund Vailshire Capital Management, recommends that traders seeking to hedge during a bear market consider increasing their cash position. “Most people feel the need to be 100% invested all of the time. You don’t. One very wise move is to increase your cash position, and wait until the smoke settles and the dust clears, then jump back in.” More advanced traders with the required trading privileges, the former radiologist adds, could consider shorting equities with a bearish momentum, or exercising put options. “Just increasing your cash position makes a massive difference” — Jeff Ross Opto Sessions #125 Play to your strengths and weaknesses An edge is only effective by knowing what it is, when, and how to use it, and understanding its limitations. “My edge is probably a combination of data and risk management,” JC Parets, founder and chief market strategist at technical analysis research platform All Star Charts, tells Opto. He reiterates the importance of being selfaware for risk management: “I want to know what is going to prove me wrong”. Expanding on this, Parets explains, “a lot of lessons that I have learned the hard way keep me disciplined in terms of risk management and understanding to check my ego at the door. It’s very easy to say that, but [it’s harder] to put that into practice and be disciplined.” “I’m not worried about how high an asset can go. I want to know what is going to prove me wrong” — JC Parets Opto Sessions #16 Learn to conquer uncertain market conditions and the challenges they bring. Master your craft, find your flow and become a CMC Markets Alpha Trader Unlock your potential With our new premium membership, CMC Alpha, you'll join a community of like-minded traders who receive all these benefits (and more). Save from 5% to 28.6% on spreads* Free Financial Times subscription Priority customer service DISCOVER ALPHA *Max discount in tier. Discounts are variable per product; please check our tiers table or the CMC Price+ T&Cs. 16 76% of retail investor accounts lose money when spread betting and/or trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.