How China is building a global network of influence Written by Frederik la Cour The global geopolitical scene is fraught with powerful nations, among which we have seen a power struggle emerge within the arguably top 2. The United States of America, and China. This battle which is often characterized as a battle between China in the east and the United States of America in the west has come because of China’s explosive growth stemming from the late 90’s into the 2000’s. In this period China went from an isolated nation state into the 2nd biggest economy in the world, and by some metrics, even overtaking the United States of America. While China showed impressive economic success year over year for around 20 years, the United States of America began to take notice, as it itself struggled with a slower growth. The prosperity of China became a sore subject for politicians and lawmakers, and since Chinas emergence into the upper echelon of powerful nations, a bitter rivalry has been at play between the two countries. This initially began as a trade war started by former president of the United States Donald Trump, in 2018. Placing tariffs, or taxes, on Chinese products. As a result, China responded just as aggressively by placing tariffs on many American products as well. In addition to the trade war, relations between the two also clash when it comes to an island off the coast of China, namely Taiwan. Taiwan has been very relevant within geopolitics, especially recently, due to the nature of its geography. Taiwan, which China still claims is a part of itself, makes up a crucial part of the first island chain, consisting of an amalgamation of Japanese islands, Taiwanese islands, and northern Philippines islands. This Chain essentially keeps Chinas naval influence, and as a result its global influence, close to the Chinese mainland. If Taiwan was not independent, China would have easy access to the open seas and thus the opportunity to spread its influence. As of right now, that is not the case. Taiwan is more western aligned than you might think, as fear of its powerful neighbor and former owner has pushed it into the arms of the United States of America and Japan, both of which don’t want to see China exercise its naval power. Through Taiwan there also lies the controversy surrounding the Taiwan Strait, a narrow passageway for trade and transport that has been under controversy multiple times before. Currently, as before, China claims sovereignty over the Taiwan strait waters, and denies the fact that any other vessel should have freedom of movement within it. This has led to protests and accusations from various government states including the United States of America. The reasons for this are according to China historical in nature, but there are also arguments to be made that there are other reasons behind this claim. As already mentioned, control of Taiwan and its waters would allow for Chinese power projection in a much more effective and encompassing way around the world. Additionally, refusing the right for other vessels to move through it if China so wishes, means China controls a shorter trade route than alternatives around the east, which could result in unfair trade practices. Finally, there is the matter of energy deposits. The south China Sea, which China officially claims as its own entirely via the infamous 9-dash line1, is rumored to be home to 11 billion barrels of oil and 190 trillion cubic feet of natural gas2. If China can make legitimate its claims to Taiwan it would have a far easier time creating a strong geographic case for its claim over these future deposits. The current situation resembles more a stalemate, with multiple east Asian nations laying claim to the south China sea, but as China continues to send more and more naval carriers on patrols around the waters and close to neighboring nations borders, escalation seems inevitable. All 1 2 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nine-dash_line https://www.eia.gov/international/analysis/regions-of-interest/South_China_Sea these issues lie as causes for the power struggle between the two leading strongest economies of our day, and as a result of this a sort of second cold war has begun. Not between the United States of America and Russia however, but between the United States of America and China. One that has far reaching consequences for the world as a whole. While the maritime world can be relatively invisible, it is the main medium in which this battle is being fought. Being 70% of the surface of the earth, travelling by water allows you access to almost every major city of every country around the world. The sea functions as a highway in that regard. According to Alfred Mahan, a nation’s greatest tool to achieve economic and political might is to control the seas, advocating for military buildup in order to assist the process of achieving this result3. These thoughts coincided with the military buildup of the 1800’s, and as a result, the United States of America took it upon itself to expand its borders across the waters and place its influence on nations around the world, creating trade and military relations and even building bases on strategic islands across the first and second island chains in the Pacific Ocean. This has resulted in US influence across the globe which tends to go unnoticed as it has become a part of our everyday routine. But whether we like it or not, the United States of America has a lot of global sway, a level that China has not yet achieved. This lack of influence is in part due to US efforts to restrict Chinese influence. While diplomacy can seem to suggest friendly if not at least tolerable relations between the two nations, harsh actions are being executed to ensure the safety and prosperity of each respective nation. As mentioned, the Taiwan dispute has resulted in many military patrols in the surrounding waters, mainly Chinese, and even fighter jets flying 3 https://www.britannica.com/biography/Alfred-Thayer-Mahan over Taiwan have been observed all despite strong condemnation and warning from the United States of America and its allies. Both nations have gone so far as to imply their willingness to go to war or at least armed conflict should it escalate to that level. But recently, China has been able to expand its global influence despite so many restrictions and controversies surrounding the navy. They have done this by essentially creating a global hub or network of ports or other coastal facilities in different countries. The Chinese government goes to another nation and asks if it is allowed to purchase a controlling stake in a port or coastal facility. If allowed, the government will buy it, effectively giving Chinese control over a foreign port, and if not allowed, they move to the next port authority. China has been doing this for years now and has a stake in at least 100 ports on over 63 different countries4. According to VOA news see 3, many of these nations lie in the east and in general they are emerging market nations, many found in Africa or South America. These purchases are somewhat a part of a Chinese initiative called the BRI, or the Belt and Road Initiative. The BRI consists of a land route and a maritime route. The land route would reach west from China through Russia, Turkey, and the middle east and end in Europe. The maritime portion would travel down across Oceania and then also reach west passing India, reaching some African nations, and travelling through the Suez Canal to finish in Europe as well. The goal of the BRI is to “connect Asia with Africa and Europe via land and maritime networks with the aim of improving regional integration, increasing trade and stimulating economic growth”5. 4 5 https://www.voanews.com/a/6224958.html https://www.ebrd.com/what-we-do/belt-and-road/overview.html The BRI will result in a lot of Chinese influence around the world, especially in emerging markets, abundant with natural resources that China could take control of in order to make further nations depend on them. In line with the BRI, China also spends the most money on foreign investment in the world, despite the popular belief that that title lies with the United States of America. Looking through statement after statement from the Development Assistance Committee (DAC), we can see that that the top 6 member states contribute more than $100 billion in 2017 combined. Those are composed of the United States of America donating $34 billion, Germany donating $25 billion, the UK donating $18 billion, the EU donating $16 billion, Japan donating $11 billion, and France donating $11 billion6. These donations are primarily based towards the middle east as well as some east Asian and African nations. From this it appears western nations are donating a vast majority of foreign aid, with the United States of America being a clear leader. However, looking away from DAC member states, there are still major nations unaccounted for, simply because they don’t have to report their foreign aid spending as they aren’t DAC member states. The most interesting of these being China. According to a report by AidData, China has spent $843 billion dollars’ worth of foreign aid over an 18-year period. That is an average of $46.8 billion each year, already surpassing the United States of America’s spending by a substantial margin, however the first years were quite a bit lower than that average so now Chinas annual spending actually lies around $85 billion each year, or more than twice that of the United States 7. 6 https://www.wristband.com/content/which-countries-provide-receive-most-foreign-aid/ 7 https://docs.aiddata.org/ad4/pdfs/Banking_on_the_Belt_and_Road_Executive_Summary.pdf All of this has resulted in a fast rise in Chinese influence and power around the world, despite limited naval access points in the near seas. This is something the president of the United States of America has had a difficult time fighting back against as it seems China has been able to avoid the fence that the United States of America tried to put around it. These acquisitions made by China while holding economic value also have the potential to hold military value, as their facilities could quickly be converted into military instillations and supply points for armed forces. The prospect of this illuminates the cold war brewing between the United States of America and China, one which has frightening consequences. Through these various ports and international purchases, China is ensuring its future influence in young emerging nations that hold potential to become major players within a few years or decades. China has given themselves some breathing room from the overarching chokehold that the United States of America has had on the nation, giving it yet another tool in the battle for global dominance between the two.
