Correlation between the age of circulatory disease patients and their death in Bahrain
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Number of pages :
1
Contents
Rationale ................................................................................................................................................. 3
Introduction ............................................................................................................................................ 3
Aim and Execution .................................................................................................................................. 4
Population Analysis ................................................................................................................................. 5
Cardiovascular Disease ( CVD) mortality and connected diseases ......................................................... 6
CVD mortality data analysis from 2005 to 2019 ................................................................................... 11
Hypertension mortality data study during 2005 to 2019 ..................................................................... 13
Conclusion ............................................................................................................................................. 15
Bibliography .......................................................................................................................................... 17
2
Rationale
I have been considering heart disease most dangerous as it takes life in no time. In my near
relative I have seen the sad incident and that is why I wanted to know the facts behind the
heart disease in terms of Mathematical Data analysis, remedies and the facts hidden behind
the disease that has not known to the General public. When I started exploration on heart
disease then I surprised to know that the main culprit behind the heart disease is hypertension
and the related Circulatory system disease.
All these diseases are categorising as the
Circulatory System diseases in Medical term. Hence, I have selected the topic on Circulatory
System in my Present Exploration. I found many of the topics learning of my IB Mathematics
book helpful in understanding and presenting the data , analysis and comparison.
Introduction
3
Bahrain is known as one of the prosperous country in the world. The population of Bahrain is
around 1.2 million and the overall health and life expectancy of average citizen has been
becoming better if I compare the last 15 years data. It is due to proper health planning and
execution by the concerning authority and the willingness and cooperation of general public
also. As per the WHO global report 1Government of Bahrain has made a policy on disease
prevention in 2012 and that resulted in better control on non-communicable diseases such as
heart or cardiac related as well as control on hypertension. Report says that 80% of the people
worldwide having hypertension but they are not aware about the disease and when the
undetected diseases start damaging heart or kidney and the situation becomes worse then only
people become cautious ; but by that time the health of the people goes out of control. But
due to better policy of Government of Bahrain the hypertension detection of the citizen has
known at the initial position and hence the prevention and control measure could be possible
to implement.
During search of the data of heart diseases and hypertension in the Bahrain I found little
difficulty in getting the data at a place but I have collected it year wise from the authentic
sources23.
Aim and Execution
Objective of the present exploration is to do an extensive depth work to analyse and correlate
the data on circulatory disease such as hypertension and cardiovascular disease ( CVD). It has
been planned to use the knowledge acquired during IB Math book here in understanding and
1
https://extranet.who.int/nutrition/gina/en/node/17830
2
https://www.moh.gov.bh/HealthInfo/DiseaseDetail/26?lang=en
3
https://www.healthdata.org/bahrain
4
analysing the very important topic on hypertension and CVD data and the mortality due to
these circulatory disease. If I work on CVD and do not talk about the obesity and diabetics
then the exploration would not been really relient, hence an exploration on these two
connected disease would also been taken up during exploration.
Population Analysis
Latest population of Bahrain have been shown as Fig. 1.
160 000
140 000
120 000
100 000
80 000
60 000
40 000
20 000
0
Fig. 1 – The trends of population of Bahrain
To correlate the population having disease such as Hypertension and heart disease It is
necessary to consider the total population of the Bahrain. In Fig. 1 the rise in population with
the time interval is displayed. Population up to 2020 is shown in graph but as per recent mid
of 2021 survey 4 the population of Bahrain is 1.7 million. As per a survey the world cardiac
patient has become double in numbers in around 20 years i.e. 271 million in 1971 to 523
4
https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/bahrain-population/
5
million in 2019. The worldwide death due to cardiac diseases is also very high, 12.1 million
people died in 1990, 17.9 million in 20195.
Cardiovascular Disease ( CVD) mortality and connected diseases
Cardiovascular disease is connected to other disease such as hypertension as well as diabetic
and overweight (high BMI). As per report Bahrain is one of the highest diabetic citizens.
Diabetic is connected to high BMI and in general It causes heart diseases. Hypertension is
also a major circulatory diseases connected to CVD mortality. A table showing the
connection of these diseases in different age group and the mortality rate is given in Table 1.
Individual connection of each above mentioned diseases with various age groups is
demonstrated by various graph and these are shown as Fig. 1 to Fig. 4. Obesity in young age
of people is found high and it decreases with the increase of age. Diabetic diseases has taken
grip of almost to the people of all age group, It is almost around 20.9 % in all the age group.
Disease hypertension is found increasing in nature with the increase of age. CVD Mortality
percent shows increase with the increase of age and increase of hypertension percent.
5
https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/cardiovascular-diseases-(cvds)
6
Age
Obesity %
Diabetic
Group
of
%
Hypertension%
CVD
Mortality%
Population
( BMI >30)
30-39
33.9
22.9
20.8
23
40-44
28.6
20.9
20.8
23
45-49
27.2
20.9
20.8
34
50-54
22.6
29.6
29.8
34
55-59
20.8
29.6
29.8
35
60-64
-
-
35
65-69
-
-
-
Table 1- Data of age group wise CVD mortality and other related disease ( Bahrain)6
6
Hamadeh, R. R. "Noncommunicable diseases among the Bahraini population: a review." EMHJEastern Mediterranean Health Journal, 6 (5-6), 1091-1097, 2000 (2000).
7
Obesity % of Population ( BMI >30)
Obesity in % of population
40
35
30
25
20
Obesity % of
Population ( BMI >30)
15
10
5
0
30-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
Age in Year
Fig.2- Age group wise trends of Obesity percent of Bahrain population
The high obesity in young people of Bahrain is the high time to make awareness about
conversion of obesity into heart disease or CVD. The life style, food habit and absence of
regular physical exercise are the reason behind the obesity and finally people goes into trap of
CVD.
The mathematical relation between age group and obesity percent can be given as
exponential decrease. It can be expressed as followsYmin. = Xmax. ( 1- Adecay ) t ................................................. ( 1 )
Where ,
Ymin. – be the minimum value of obesity percent.
Xmax. - be the miximum value of obesity percent.
t – be the time interval
8
Diabetic %
Diabetic % of population
35
30
25
20
15
Diabetic %
10
5
0
30-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
Age in Years
Fig.3- Age group wise trends of Diabetic percent of Bahrain population
Diabetics is ultimately causes the CVD ; hence discussion on this topic is imperative in
context of present exploration. Nature of changes in Diabetic percent with the increase in age
is shown in Fig.3. Nature of diabetic from the age 30 year to 49 year shows little decrease but
suddenly, diabetics number shows exponential growth up to the age of 54 year, finally almost
steady rate of diabetics is observed from the age 55 year to 59 year. The high percent
presence of diabetics in young generation i.e. 30 to 39 year age group is a great matter of
concern because the future of any country depends on how healthy is the young generation in
the country. High diabetic percent of population of Bahrain is also shows resemblance of
high obesity. It establishes that the obesity is the one of the important cause behind the
diabetics.
9
Hypertension % of population
Hypertension%
35
30
25
20
15
Hypertension%
10
5
0
30-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
Age Group
Fig.4- Age group wise trends of Hypertension percent of Bahrain population
Percent of population having hypertension disease from young age of 30 years to the age of
59 year has been shown in Fig. 4. Almost steady percent of hypertension is observed in the
age group 30 year to 49 year, but it is more than 20 % of the population is an indication for an
urgent alert. However, step exponential increase of the cases of hypertension in the age group
of 50-54 year is alarming. Hypertension is known as one of the major cause for heart stroke.
The medium age people ( 50-54 year group) having maximum level of hypertension is also
coinciding with the maximum CVD mortality as shown in Fig.5. The age group from 50-54
are usually the most senior level position in corporate or other sectors, hence the high work
pressure is well understood on this age group. But on other hand high level of mortality in
this top position level must be checked because this group is highly productive and capable in
contributing maximum in the country’s economy and prosperity. Hence, immediate measure
to save this top level working force group is a vital matter of concerned.
10
CVD Mortality%
40
CD Mortality %
35
30
25
20
15
CVD Mortality%
10
5
0
30-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64
Age Group
Fig.5- Age group wise trends of CD Mortality percent of Bahrain population
Fig. 5 is showing the trends of the CVD mortality percent in the Bahrain. CD mortality in
young generation of the age group 30 year is a sad and surprising trend. CVD mortality of 23
% of young population is one of the essential concern to be addressed by the concerning
administrator. If this high CD mortality in young people could not be checked then in coming
year country may face a problem of economic crisis and the growth of population may also
be effected.
CVD mortality data analysis from 2005 to 2019
To understand the CVD mortality in wider prospective let us do an assessment of CVD
mortality data for a long period of 15 years i.e. from 2005 to 2019. The data has been
collected from a reliable source.7 The graph based on the data given in Table 3 is drawn and
it is shown as Fig.6. The non-steady nature of data of CVD mortality during the 15 years span
time indicates the requirement of continues effort by the concerning authority to check the
high mortality rate.
7
High CVD mortality peak during 2008 indicates some natural or
https://www.healthdata.org/bahrain
11
manmade calamity facing by the country. High pick of CVD mortality during present
ongoing pandemic is obvious. The period of 2010 to 2014 is considered as the one of the least
CVD mortality period. This period might have been under special drive of the Government to
curb the heart diseases.
Year
Death /2000
2005
32.4
2006
34.1
2007
39.2
2008
40.7
2009
24
2010
28.6
2011
25.4
2012
25.6
2013
27
2014
26.3
2015
34.5
2016
28
2017
33.4
2018
40
2019
42
2020
41
Table 3 – The CVD mortality data of Bahrain from 2005 to 20198
8
https://www.healthdata.org/bahrain
12
Fig.6 – Showing the trends of CVD mortality during 2005 to 2019
Hypertension mortality data study during 2005 to 2019
As discussed above the hypertension is one of the main reasons behind the CVD mortality. It
is highly linked to the CVD disease. In table 4 the mortality figure due to hypertension is
displayed. Long-term i.e. 15 years data of hypertension death has been collected
9
to
understand the intensity of the effect of hypertension on general people of Bahrain. Fig. 7
shows the graphical representation of the nature of mortality due to hypertension during the
period of 2005 to 2019. It has been observed from the graph shown in Fig. 7 that the
mortality rate instead of being steady , it is increasing in nature with the increase of interval
of time. This result on continuous increase in Mortality due to hypertension is shocking.
Reason behind this unpredictable nature of mortality graph may be attributed to the unawareness about the probable death due to hypertension in general masses. In above column
during the discussion of figure 4 i.e. Hypertension % in the Bahrain , It has been seen that the
youth of younger age of 30 years have high hypertension disease , hence It can be predicted
that we might be losing our youngsters due to the disease of hypertension. In general people
9
https://www.healthdata.org/bahrain
13
do not care much to the disease of hypertension, if the rate of mortality is this much high as
shown in Fig. 7 then it is very essential to take immediate measure to check the hypertension
disease and let us make the people aware about the good lifestyle and food habit.
Death
Year
/2000
2005
37
2006
39
2007
40.5
2008
42
2009
45
2010
47.5
2011
50.5
2012
53
2013
55
2014
59.5
2015
62.5
2016
66.4
2017
68.5
2018
70
2019
73
2020
78
Table 4 – The data of mortality due to Hypertension in Bahrain10
10
https://www.healthdata.org/bahrain
14
Fig.7 – The trends of Hypertension mortality during 2005 to 2019.
Conclusion
An extensive exploration has been done on the topic of Circulatory diseases such as
hypertension and cardiovascular disease. The related disease such as obesity and diabetics
has also been taken up in this exploration to understand the causes and prevention properly.
Many surprising, unpredictable results has been found during exploration. I have been felt
that urgent health emergency kind of situation is there in Bahrain especially on the rising
mortality due to CVD and Hypertension. People do not consider hypertension as life
threatening but present extensive data analysis and comparison indicates that in Bahrain the
hypertension has become a main reason for losing our youngsters , hence immediate proper
action to cube these circulatory diseases is required.
Following are some of important findings.
Diabetic diseases has taken grip of almost to the people of all age group, It is almost around
20.9 % in all the age group. Disease hypertension is found increasing in nature with the
15
increase of age. CVD Mortality percent shows increase with the increase of age and increase
of hypertension percent.
Hypertension is known as one of the major cause for heart stroke. The medium age people (
50-54 year group) having maximum level of hypertension is also coinciding with the
maximum CVD mortality as shown in Fig.5. The age group from 50-54 are usually the most
senior level position in corporate or other sectors, hence the high work pressure is well
understood on this age group.
. The non-steady nature of data of CVD mortality during the 15 years span time indicates the
requirement of continues effort by the concerning authority to check the high mortality rate.
High CVD mortality peak during 2008 indicates some natural or manmade calamity facing
by the country. High pick of CVD mortality during present ongoing pandemic is obvious.
The period of 2010 to 2014 is considered as the one of the least CVD mortality period. This
period might have been under special drive of the Government to curb the heart diseases.
16
Bibliography
"Bahrain Population (2021)." Worldometer - Real Time World Statistics,
www.worldometers.info/world-population/bahrain-population/.
"Bahrain." Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, 15 Sept. 2017,
www.healthdata.org/bahrain.
"Cardiovascular Diseases (CVDs)." WHO | World Health Organization, 11 June 2021,
www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/cardiovascular-diseases-(cvds).
Hamadeh, R. R. "Noncommunicable diseases among the Bahraini population: a
review." Eastern Mediterranean Health Journal, vol. 6, no. 5-6, 2000, pp. 10911097.
Health Information Directorate - Web Services Group. "Disease Details." Coronavirus
COVID-19 - Ministry of Health, 2 Feb. 2022,
www.moh.gov.bh/HealthInfo/DiseaseDetail/26?lang=en.
"Policy - Bahrain's Health Agenda. Health Improvement Strategy | Global Database on the
Implementation of Nutrition Action (GINA)." WHO/OMS: Extranet Systems,
extranet.who.int/nutrition/gina/en/node/17830.
17