Lebanese American University Business School ECO811 Spring 2022 1. Lenny's, a national restaurant chain, conducted a study of the factors affecting demand (sales). The following variables were defined and measured for a random sample of 30 of its restaurants: Y = Annual restaurant sales ($000) X1 = Disposable personal income (per capita) of residents within 5 mile radius X2 = License to sell beer/wine (0=No, 1=Yes) X3 = Location (within one-half mile of interstate highway-0=No, 1=Yes) X4 = Population (within 5 mile radius) X5 = Number of competing restaurants within 2 mile radius The data were entered into a computerized regression program and the following results were obtained: MULTIPLE R R-SQUARE STD. ERROR OF EST .889 .79 .40 ANALYSIS OF VARIANCE Regression Error Total DF 5 24 29 Variable Constant X-1 X-2 X-3 X-4 X-5 Sum Squares 326.13 86.17 412.30 Coefficient .363 .00275 76.65 164.3 .00331 46.2 Mean Sqr. 65.226 3.590 Std. Error .196 .00104 93.70 235.4 .00126 12.1 F-Stat 18.17 T-Value 1.852 2.644 .818 .698 2.627 -3.818 Questions: (a) Give the regression equation for predicting restaurant sales. (b) Give an interpretation of each of the estimated regression coefficients. (c) Which of the independent variables (if any) are statistically significant at the .05 level) in "explaining" restaurant sales? (d) What proportion of the variation in restaurant sales is "explained" by the regression equation? Solutions: (a) Y = .363 + .00275X1 + 76.65X2 + 164.3X3 + .00331X4 46.2X5 1 (b) a = .363 b1 = .00275 b2 = 76.65 b3 = 164.3 b4 = .00331 b5 = 46.2 (c) Value of dependent variable (Y) when all independent variables (X's) are equal to zero. For a one dollar increase in per capita disposable income, expected restaurant sales will increase by .00275( $1000) = $2.7 Expected annual restaurant sales are higher for a restaurant with a license to sell beer/wine than for one without such a license. Expected annual restaurant sales are higher for a restaurant located within one-half mile of an interstate highway. For a one person increase in population, expected restaurant sales will increase by .00331( $1000) = $3.31. For a one unit increase in the number of restaurants within a 2-mile radius, expected annual restaurant sales decrease by 46.2( $1000)= $46,200. H0: i = 0 H1: i 0 Reject H0 if t > t.025, 24 = 2.064 or t < 2.064. The t-values of X1 and X4 are greater than +2.064 (and the t-value of X5 is less than -2.064). Therefore X1, X4, and X5 are statistically significant at the .05 level in "explaining" restaurant sales. (d) According to the R-SQUARE statistic, 79 percent of the variation in restaurant sales is "explained" by the regression equation. 2. The British Automobile Company is introducing a brand new model called the "London Special." Using the latest forecasting techniques, BAC economists have developed the following demand function for the "London Special": QD = 1,200,000 40P What is the point price elasticity of demand at prices of (a) $8,000 and (b) $10,000? Solutions: (a) = .36 2 (b) = .50 3. A firm has decided to invest in a piece of land. Management has estimated that the land can be sold in 5 years for the following possible prices: Price 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 (a) (b) (c) Probability .20 .30 .40 .10 Determine the expected selling price for the land. Determine the standard deviation of the possible sales prices. Determine the coefficient of variation. Solutions: 1. (a) = 10,000 (.20) + 15,000 (.30) + 20,000 (.40) + 25,000 (.10) = $17,000 (b) = [(10,000 17,000)2 (.20) + (15,000 17,000)2 (.30) + (20,000 17,000)2 (.40) + (25,000 17,000)2 (.10)].5 = [21,000,000].5 = $4583 (c) = = 0.270 3