2014 INDUSTRIAL BIOMASS PLANTATION, RENEWABLE ENERGY AND PELLET PLANT PROJECT Business Plan Republika Srpska Clarendon Resources, Ltd. Clarendon House 117 George Lane South 0/66 Woodford London E18 1AN England - United Kingdom Contents 1. 2. Executive Summary ........................................................................................................................ 4 1.1 Objectives .................................................................................................................................. 5 1.2 Mission ....................................................................................................................................... 5 1.3 Keys to Success .......................................................................................................................... 6 Business Summary ......................................................................................................................... 6 2.1 Company Summary .................................................................................................................... 6 2.1.1 Corporate Profile ................................................................................................................... 6 2.1.2 Corporate Focus .................................................................................................................... 6 2.2 Management Summary ............................................................................................................. 7 2.2.1 Management Team ............................................................................................................... 7 2.2.2 Project Organization Chart .................................................................................................. 10 2.2.3 Company Project Partnerships ............................................................................................ 11 2.2.4 Project Management Methodology - Enterprise Architecture ........................................... 12 2.3 Input Resource “Woody Biomass“ Phase 1 - years 1 to 7....................................................... 13 2.3.1 “Woody Biomass“and Transportation Purchase Costs – Years 1 to 7................................. 13 2.3.2 Target Entities for the Woody Biomass Resource Purchase ............................................... 13 2.4 Input Resource ”Woody Biomass” Phase 2 – Years 8 to 20..................................................... 14 2.4.1 Woody Biomass Yields and Consumption from Paulownia Plantation Resource Phase 2 – Years 8 to 20 ..................................................................................................................................... 15 2.4.2 Advantages of Biomass Plantation as a Woody Biomass and Pellet Resource ................... 15 2.4.3 Why Paulownia and Paulownia Plantation as a Woody Biomass Resource ........................ 17 2.4.4 Advantages of Paulownia Pellets:........................................................................................ 18 2.4.5 Development Phases and Maintenance of Paulownia Trees and Plantation...................... 18 2.4.6 The Opportunity with Biomass Paulownia Plantation as a Resource.................................. 20 2.5 Output Product”ENplus-A1 pellets” ........................................................................................ 21 2.5.1 Experiences with Pellet Quality Certification in Residential Markets ................................. 21 2.5.2 ENPlus Quality Classes ......................................................................................................... 22 Page 1/66 2.5.3 2.6 3. SWOT Analysis ..................................................................................................................... 25 2.6.2 Key Development Risk and Milestones ............................................................................... 25 2.6.3 Key Operational Risk and Milestones .................................................................................. 25 Technology and Technological Process .......................................................................................... 26 Wood Processing and Pelleting - 5 t/h Woody Biomass Pellet Plant ...................................... 26 3.1.1 STAGE “A” CHIPPING and GRINDING................................................................................... 28 3.1.2 STAGE “B” DRYING............................................................................................................... 28 3.1.3 STAGE “C” REFINING ............................................................................................................ 29 3.1.4 STAGE “D” MIXING .............................................................................................................. 29 3.1.5 STAGE “E” PELLETING .......................................................................................................... 30 3.1.6 STAGE “F” COOLING ............................................................................................................ 30 3.1.7 STAGE “G” SIEVING .............................................................................................................. 31 3.1.8 STAGE “H” SACKING ............................................................................................................ 31 3.2 5. SWOT Analysis & Risk Milestones ............................................................................................ 25 2.6.1 3.1 4. Target Market for Sale of ENplus-A1 pellets – Italy ............................................................ 22 1.5 Mw/h Gasification and Power Generation Plant ............................................................... 32 Production Process Flow Chart and Development Phases .............................................................. 32 4.1 Production Process Flow Chart ................................................................................................ 32 4.2 Development Phases ............................................................................................................... 33 Market Research .......................................................................................................................... 34 5.1 Country Preference ”Why Republika Sprska” .......................................................................... 34 5.2 ”Woody Biomass” Market Research ........................................................................................ 34 5.3 ”Wood Pellets” Market Research ............................................................................................ 35 5.3.1 Introduction ......................................................................................................................... 35 5.3.2 Generalities of the Pellet Sector .......................................................................................... 36 5.3.3 Situation in Europe .............................................................................................................. 38 5.3.4 European Wood Pellet Trade .............................................................................................. 40 5.3.5 European Wood Pellet Price ................................................................................................ 41 Page 2/66 5.3.6 6. Prices in Comparison to other Fuel Heating Resources ...................................................... 42 Financial Plan Analysis .................................................................................................................. 43 6.1 Resource Assumptions ............................................................................................................. 44 6.2 Genneral Assumptions ............................................................................................................. 45 6.3 Financial Summary ................................................................................................................... 46 6.4 Sales Forecast (average, years 2016-2025, years 2026-2035) ................................................. 47 6.5 Capital Expenses (total, Q1-Q4 2015, 2016-2025) ................................................................... 48 6.6 Payroll Expenses (average, years 2016-2025, years 2026-2035) ............................................. 51 6.7 Operational Expenses (average, years 2016-2025, years 2026-2035)..................................... 53 6.8 Pro Forma Profit and Loss (years 2016-2025, years 2026-2035) ............................................. 54 6.9 Pro Forma Cash Flow (Q1-Q4 2015, years 2016-2025, years 2026-2035) ............................... 55 6.10 Pro Forma Balance Sheet (years 2016-2025, years 2026-2035) .............................................. 58 6.11 Break-even Analysis – Pellets (years 1-7 and 8-20) ................................................................. 59 6.12 Ratios (years 2016-2025, years 2026-2035) ............................................................................ 60 6.13 Exit Strategy ............................................................................................................................. 61 6.14 Scenarios – Assumptions and Conditions ................................................................................ 62 6.14.1 Monte Carlo Price Scenario Simulation Analysis – 20 years ........................................... 62 6.14.2 Worst Case “Pessimistic” Scenario.................................................................................. 64 6.14.3 Best Case “Optimistic” Scenario...................................................................................... 65 Page 3/66 1. Executive Summary Climate change and the need to manage diminishing fossil fuel reserves are, today, two of the biggest challenges facing the planet, which brings to the forefront energy from renewable sources. Biomass power is the largest source of renewable energy as well as a vital part of the waste management infrastructure that can play a major role in reducing the reliance on fossil fuels. An increasing global awareness about environmental issues is acting as the driving force behind the use of alternative and renewable sources of energy. A greater emphasis is being laid on the promotion of bioenergy in the industrialized as well as developing world to counter environmental issues. In addition, the increased utilization of biomass-based fuels will be instrumental in safeguarding the environment, generation of new job opportunities, sustainable development and health improvements in rural areas. The development of efficient biomass handling technology, improvement of agroforestry systems and establishment of small and large-scale biomass-based power and pellet plants can play a major role in rural development. The importance of wood pellets for small and medium scale heat production and large scale power generation is continuously increasing across Europe. Pellet use can contribute substantially to renewable heat and electricity targets set by the EU Renewable Energy Directive. EU countries have set renewable energy targets for 2020, and most experts believe that meeting these targets will require a heavy focus on biomass, where most of it originate directly or indirectly from forests. However biomass demand for energy and pellets is growing at a much faster pace that forest biomass supply; more so due to new EU timber regulations that are being increasingly restrictive. While material for woody biomass can come from many sources (e.g. forestry thinning operations, logging slash and residue, urban tree and shrub pruning, and waste from forest and wood-related industries), the focus for this project is the plantation of trees from the Paulownia sort specifically for high quality ENplus-A1 pellets. Woody plants primarily of interest for dedicated for pellets or other energy crops are fast-growing trees which re-sprout after each harvest (short to mid rotation woody crops). Typically these planting are known as energy plantations. Opportunity Clarendon team and partners have significant technical and project management expertise and experience in the renewable energy and pellet sector, where Clarendon has local presence and influence in the Western Balkans – particularly in identifying, securing and executing opportunities within the sector. Clarendon team and partners have performed in the past 12 month an on-site and off-site due technical and financial diligence, including serious of meetings and negotiations with various Government officials and agencies, and other relevant third parties. As a result and subject of this business plan, we have singled out a unique and profitable opportunity to invest, develop and operate a pellet plant, gasification plant and biomass plantation in Republika Srpska that would produce high quality pellets with focus on exports to the Central European and Italian markets, and electric power from plantation waste sold to the Government Electric Company based on the “feed-in” tariffs. Page 4/66 1.1 Objectives Average Gross Margin years 1 to 7 over 50% and years 8 – 20 over 70% Average net profit years 1 to 7 almost 2,000,000 € and years 8 to 20 over 3,000,000 € Average Return on Principal Investment (ROPI) years 1 – 7 around 30% and years 8 – 20 over 50%, or less than 3 years Average Return on Equity Investment (ROEI) years 1 – 7 over 40% and years 8 – 20 almost 200%, or less than 2 years Exit strategy between years 5 and 8 with NPV between 20,000,000 € and 25,000,000 € 1.2 Mission Clarendon has identified a lucrative opportunity to develop and operate a pellet plant, gasification plant and industrial biomass plantation to exclusively supply the woody resource. The 5 tons an hour pellet plant will produce throughout the duration of the project 40,000 tons a year of highest quality certified Enplus-A1 pellets for exports to the high priced and growing Central European markets, with focus on Italy. The 1.5 Mw gasification power plant will be implemented in the second phase (years 8 to 20) and produce 10,500 Mw of electricity to be sold to the government electric company on a long term contract as a preferential power producer based on “feed-in” tariffs. The woody biomass resource, as the most critical aspect of the project will be supplied; in the first phase (years 1 to 7) for the pellet plant by the Government Forest Agency (“Srpske Šume”); In the second phase (years 8 to 20) for the pellet and gasification plant from the leased 1,500 hectors industrial biomass plantation consisting of Paulownia trees – trunks for the pellet production and waste for the gasification process. Clarendon and their partner companies “Omega-Energy” Serbia with support of the equipment supplier “General Dies” Italy are in discussions and received full support from the Republika Srpska Government for their renewable energy development and improvement of agro-forestry initiatives - having in the forefront the Ministry of Energy, the Public Forest Company (“Srpske Šume”) and the InvestmentDevelopment Bank (IRBRS). Page 5/66 1.3 Keys to Success 2. Stable and continues source of woody biomass in years 1 to 7 Local and political support from key government institutions and individuals Sustainability of the strategic partner Availability end execution of project finance Stable market price of pellets, at minimum 130€ p/t Business Summary 2.1 Company Summary 2.1.1 Corporate Profile Clarendon is Engineering, Project management and Project Finance for renewable energy, metals, mining and ‘green’ environmental projects. Our relationships with key government and industry figures, has allowed Clarendon to create, package and complete unique opportunities with high yield return for our partners and investors. Clarendon is headquartered in London and maintains its engineering office in Belgrade with several affiliate offices in other locations. Clarendon team members combine in-depth knowledge and hands-on experience in emerging markets with international education and experience gained in Beijing, Belgrade, Doha, Dubai, Hong Kong, Istanbul, London, Miami, Moscow, New York, San Francisco, and Washington DC. In 2011 Clarendon officially operates as Clarendon Balkan d.o.o., following acquisition and ownership by Clarendon Resources Ltd, from UK. Omega Energy begins its development in energy efficiency by installing modern isolation building materials and using modern construction PVC and aluminum joinery. Developing their skills in co-operation with famous European companies, Omega Energy attains experience and reputation in Central Europe and Russia, and later participation in project management for the implementation of the use of energy efficient mechanical systems, such as the restoration projects of obsolete production systems in the Russian Federation (St. Petersburg and Yekaterinburg), implementing modern, energy-efficient mechanical systems. In the construction sector on the Russian “green building” market, Omega Energy participate with its team of experts on the project phases of analysis and predesign; in consulting, financial management, planning and supervision. 2.1.2 Corporate Focus Clarendon as Aero Aqua Terra Engineering was founded in 1996 as a group of environmental and water engineers, involved in several water purification and environmental projects. Shortly after, Clarendon is hired as a main consultant to the government of Serbia, after an ecological disaster as a result of breaking of the flotation tailings in the RTB copper mine in Bor Serbia. As a result, Clarendon developed proprietary and environmentally friendly technologies for mining and water purification, Since 2006 Clarendon Balkan begins active involvement in Consulting, Project Management and Engineering in the field of Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency throughout the region, where significant experience and knowledge base is acquired and professional relationships with key individuals and global firms developed. Particular focus was attributed to resource and technology research of woody biomass for production of pellets and renewable energy. Page 6/66 Clarendon team has significant technical and project management expertise and experience in the renewable energy and pellet sector, where Clarendon has local presence and influence in the Western Balkans – particularly in identifying, securing and executing opportunities within the sector. Omega Energy focus is in research that emerged due to recognition of the need to improve and rationalize existing energy sources, and based on research evidence applied theory of reliability, engineering methods, maintenance, and effectiveness of the system and management of various forms of energy. With its results and achievements in the field of scientific research, continuing education and business applications, research center OMEGA ENERGY brought together proven experts from various fields. 2.2 Management Summary 2.2.1 Management Team 2.2.1.1 Engineering and Technical Branko Tomašević, M.Sc. Mech. Eng. Mechanical Engineering, Faculty of Mechanical Engineering University of Belgrade, department of Aviation. Licensed responsible designer of mechanical installations, water supply facilities and industrial water, hydraulic and hydro power l. Licensed responsible contractor mechanical installations, water supply facilities and industrial water, hydraulic and hydro power. Mr. Tomašević has many years of experience in the military industry in general practices procedures conquest repair of aircraft and air combat systems, transport and civil aircraft and helicopters, the design institute of maintenance. He designed of hydraulic installations, fuel installations for new aircraft and helicopters. He has experience in technology transfer in the aerospace industry. He performed 3D design, construction and production equipment and automation in the process industry, measuring and sorting packages. He has experience in designing parts of the development of composite materials. He performed design, construction and performance of treatment plants of municipal and industrial wastewater. He design and management in the design and construction of industrial facilities, rehabilitation of degraded areas, sustainable development and renewable energy sources. He has experience in building, managing and monitoring the construction of industrial plants. Mr. Tomašević is a member of the Serbian Chamber of Engineers and Mensa International, and is fluent in Serbian and English. Branislav Gazibarić, M.Sc. Mech. Eng. Graduated from the Faculty of Mechanical Engineering in Belgrade in the master degree (M.Sc.). He worked as a freelance designer in the process of Product Engineering. Until 2004 was engaged in various private affairs, then he joined Aero Aqua Engineering, and was responsible as part of the company’s management for development of technologies for the separation of copper from liquid. Since 2008, as co-owner of the company AeroAquaTerra Engineering company, working on strategic development in the field of environmental protection and renewable energy. Vitomir Golušin, M.Sc.Eng.Ecc. His engagement begins in 1991 at the Institute of Nuclear Sciences Vinča as a researcher in the laboratory for the study of sources of ionization radiation. As an independent researcher achieves significant results in the field of electrical engineering, rationalization of energy, microwave technology, as well as developing his own HHO generator module. He has worked as Project Manager on several projects, and is currently in the same position in a company engaged in the development, rationalization and optimal use of energy resources. Page 7/66 Bratimir Nešić, M. Sc. Environmental Engineering, Fire Safety Engineering and Mechanical Engineering. Member of the Serbian Chamber of Engineers, Serbian Association of Safety Engineers and Serbian Solid Waste Management Association. He started his professional carrier in 1995, in Serbian Association of Safety Engineers in Nis, Serbia as Education & Training Assistant. In 1997, he becomes Teaching & Research Assistant in University of Nis, Faculty of Occupational Safety, Environmental Protection Department, in Nis, Serbia where he worked in developing energy briquettes as sustainable and renewable energy resource In 1999, he starts to work in public waste management company Mediana Nis-Serbia as Landfill Manager on: planning and management the handling and processing of a municipal solid waste and enabling smooth operation of landfill. From 2000, he works as Project Manager in national and international organizations such as: NGO Ecology Future 2000, Nis-Serbia, Canadian International Development Agency, Italian Consortium of Solidarity, and Catholic Organization for Relief and Development from The Hague-The Netherlands, Branch Office Leskovac-Serbia, UNDP Branch Office Leskovac-Serbia and CHF International USA, Branch Office Leskovac-Serbia. In 2003, he is working in Integral-Cvetkovic, Consulting & Training, Germany, and Branch Office Belgrade-Serbia as Waste Manager involved waste management projects. In 2004, he moves to Plastic Recycling Industry Mitic Leskovac-Serbia where he works as Environment, Health and Safety Manager. Finally, from 2008, he works in PORR Serbia as Recycling Manager where he is involved in waste management and recycling projects. Dušan Jovanović, M.Sc, Arch. TOGAF is a seasoned senior IT Architect, Visionary and developer. In his 20+ years long career he “has seen it all”. From the “trenches” of hard core software development, over full engagement in all roles IT sector might require, all the way to the Enterprise Architecture. After few years of large scale integration projects, SOA and Web based systems, beside his Clarendon CTO role; he is most recently engaged in helping our customers in realizing the benefits of Cloud Computing. Dusan holds Master’s Degree in Architecture and is fully TOGAF certified. 2.2.1.2 Project Management and Finance Miloš Mitch Bulajić LL.B CMT is Founder of and Managing Partner in Clarendon. He spent 20 years working for prestigious financial institutions across US, Europe and Asia. Mitch has held a number of senior positions, including Trading Strategist, Research Analyst, and Portfolio Manager for some of the most successful companies in the world, including: Jefferies where he was head of the Global Strategies department, Everest Capital ($1 billion Miami based Bermuda hedge fund) and Elliott Associates ($4 billion New York based Bermuda hedge fund). Mitch has a wealth of experience in structuring MLP (Master Limited Partnerships) portfolio strategies and managing specialized energy portfolios. At Halcyon Capital Partners, he worked on numerous energy and infrastructure projects throughout Eastern Europe, Russia, Latin America and Africa. Mitch speaks fluent Serbian, Croatian and English; and conversational Spanish and Russian. Zoran A. Lilić, M.Sc.Eng.Ecc. Professional involvement began in 1988 at the Institute of Economics in Belgrade as a researcher and project manager. Eventually achieved the position of consultant realizing development and investment projects by UNIDO methodology. Performed the duties of the Secretary-General of the Yugoslavian Association of Consultants and was in management positions of companies involved in urban development, innovative technology, education, and savings and rationalization of energy resources. Worked on dozens of projects as a Project Manager, Financial Manager and Researcher in the above mentioned fields. Currently holds a Strategic Development Manager position for the company that is principally engaged in the development and optimal use of energy resources. Page 8/66 Richard Conway graduated from the University of Sussex with a degree in Economics and Spanish; he has second degrees in Computer Science and Physics from the Open University. Richard has 12 years’ experience working in the City of London prior to co-founding The Clarendon Group, working for the likes of Deutsche Bank, Merrill Lynch, ABN Amro and others. Richard’s background is mainly in technology and quantitative analysis. Richard has been responsible for setting up a Greenfield project for Clarendon to resolve the issue of marine oil, sewage and toxic waste from ship vessels under contract for Turkish and Chinese ports. He has built the project from the ground up selecting the technology, securing early and late stage finance, setting up the infrastructure and conditions for success as well as lobby in both Turkey and China for partnerships with local companies and contracts with ports. Richard Daničić served as the founding Executive Director of the American Chamber of Commerce both in Serbia (2002-2006) and in Montenegro (2008-2010), where he worked to improve overall business environment for foreign investors and facilitated communication between the private sector and government. From 1997 to 2002, he worked in the US financial industry, as the licensed professional, specializing in futures and future options contracts in the regulated commodity markets (e.g. energies, grains, precious metals, currencies, credit instruments, etc.). Mr. Danicic earned a Master in Public Administration from Harvard University as the Mason and Kokkalis Fellow. He was a mid-career student with major area of concentration in leadership and political advocacy. In 1997 he received his BA in International Business at Hawaii Pacific University. 2.2.1.3 Advisors and Consultants George Šarčević brings more than twelve years of international investment banking experience to the team. At Goldman Sachs, Bear Stearns, and HSBC, he helped telecom and select industrial issuers raise more than $13 billion in the international capital markets. He is a founding partner and former CFO of IX2 Networks, a leading provider of carrier-neutral collocation services in Los Angeles, California. In Serbia & Montenegro Since 2001, he completed World Bank, EBRD, and UNDP supported financial assignments at the Serbian Ministry of International Economic Relations, Ministry of Finance, and Agency of Privatization and has advised The Privatization Agency and Ministry of Finance of Montenegro. Specific experience in Serbia and Montenegro includes. Mr. Sarcevic was also a buy side advisor for Western Wireless (US) in the €114m acquisition of Telekom Montenegro. He is a graduate of Princeton University. Prof. Dr Branko Glavonjić, PHd. Eng.For is University Professor of Forestry Faculty of the Belgrade State University. He was chairman of the Timber Committee of the UNECE/FAO in Geneva from 2008 to 2010. Actually he is Vice Chairman of the Timber Committee of the UNECE/FAO and Deputy Leader of the UNECE/FAO-Team of Specialists on Sustainable Forest Products. Also, he is member of the International Union of Forest Research Organizations (IUFRO) Research Group 5.10.00. More than 15 years of experience in analyzing woody biomass potentials, consumption and policy in South-eastern European countries. Among others, he was involved as Project Manager in the successful implementation of the Project ‘’Wood Energy as a Driver for Sustainable Rural Economic Development in Serbia’’, supported by FAO. Within mentioned project he developed and implemented the special methodology according to which the survey on wood fuels consumption in Serbia was conducted. Basing on results of the survey clear picture about quantities, energetic value, categories of consumers and contribution of wood fuels to decreasing of importing dependence of Serbia, decreasing of CO2 and climate change mitigation was obtained. As the projects’ manager and consultant of companies that have built the factories for wood fuel production in Serbia, Montenegro, Bosnia and Herzegovina he obtained significant technical knowledge and experience in development and realizing of investment projects. His technical solutions, that are also nowadays in full usage, are built in the numerous factories for wood fuels production in Serbia and Montenegro. Page 9/66 Those solutions refer on production, storage and preparation of wood raw material, as well as on production, packaging, storage and transport of wood fuels. As a member of project teams he worked on the projects of energetic efficiency of companies dealing in wood processing in Serbia, particularly in the segment of projecting of the equipment for drying and wood steaming. From the 2012 he has also been working within projects for increasing of energetic efficiency in district heating systems in Serbia, as well as within projects for construction of CHP plants for production of electrical energy from biomass in Serbia and Montenegro. All above mentioned activities requested extensive knowledge of policies and regulations, which refer to renewable energy sources, construction of buildings, estimation of the impact on natural environment, as well as obtaining of necessary permissions. In this respect it is important to notice his active participation in making of the Action plan for biomass of the Republic of Serbia for the period 2010-2012 (he was a member of the working group), Action plan for renewable energy sources of the Republic of Serbia by 2020, as well as contribution to making of the Development strategy of energetic in the Republic of Serbia by 2015 for the period of 2007-2012. 2.2.2 Project Organization Chart CEO COO Chief Architect TOGAF Advisors & Consultants CTO Chief Agro/Forest Engineer Chief Mechanical Engineer ENGINEERING, PROCUREMENT & CONSTRUCTION CFO Chief Technological Engineer PROJECT FINANCE, ACCOUTING, MARKETING, SALES Page 10/66 2.2.3 Company Project Partnerships General Dies, Italy (www.generaldies.com) General Dies projects and produces high quality spare parts, equipment, machines for pelleting lines and complete installations that include the pelleting process. General Dies turns to anybody who needs the pelleting process for different reasons: reduction of volumes, better product conservation, easy handling and transport etc. General Dies continues an ethic, technical and commercial tradition of 50 years and offers correctness, experience, professional competence, dynamism and availability. General Dies proposes innovative products and has, as additional goals, delivery on time, adequate prices and production flexibility. BIOS Bioenergiesysteme GmbH, Austria (www.bios-bioenergy.at) BIOS has been active in national and international R&D projects in the field of densified biomass fuels (i.e. pellets and briquettes) in cooperation with the Institute for Process and Particle Engineering, Graz University of Technology, since 2000. The main activities of BIOS in this field are: Analyses and characterization of pellets Development of pellet combustion technologies CFD-aided modelling / development of pellet furnaces Characterization and reduction of PM emissions In addition to these R&D activities BIOS is also active in planning of pellet production plants. BIOS has a well-established network to the most important pellet producing and consuming countries (i.e. Belgium, Denmark, Germany, Finland, Canada, the Netherlands, Sweden) via the International Energy Agency, Bioenergy Agreement, Task 32, “Biomass Combustion and Co-firing”. In addition, BIOS published in spring 2010 in cooperation with the International Energy Agency, Bioenergy Agreement, Task 32, “Biomass Combustion and Co-firing” the international pellet handbook “The pellet handbook – the production and thermal utilization of biomass pellets” (in English language). Planto d.o.o., Serbia (www.paulownia.rs) Planto is a leader and pioneer in promoting and spreading rapidly growing paulownia wood in Serbia and the region of Balkans. Planto brings together Paulownia growers and provides the following services: Nursery and plantation design Technical and professional support during the operation of plantations Promotion, dissemination and commercialization of fast growing tree Paulownia elongate and paulownia Shan Tong, which is our main business and core of our projects. Commercialization and marketing of industrial raw materials (wood, timber, biomass, pellets, feed, etc.) as well as the final products (furniture, barrels, toys, honey and honey products, etc.) from Paulownia. Selecting new hybrids suitable for regional climate through plant- nursery sampling and testing Cooperation and joint ventures on local and foreign markets. Valorization of uncultivated farmland in Serbia and the region through planting Paulownia elongate and Shan Tong. Implementation of renewable energy in central Serbia, within the field of forestry. Page 11/66 2.2.4 Project Management Methodology - Enterprise Architecture Clarendon is fully enabled in leading and executing complex Enterprise Architecture (EA) projects. Clarendon is supporting and practicing the TOGAF architecture development standard. about TOGAF® TOGAF®, an Open Group Standard, is a proven enterprise architecture methodology and framework used by the world’s leading organizations to improve business efficiency. It is the most prominent and reliable enterprise architecture standard, ensuring consistent standards, methods, and communication among enterprise architecture professionals. Enterprise architecture professionals fluent in TOGAF standards enjoy greater industry credibility, job effectiveness, and projects success rate. TOGAF helps practitioners avoid being locked into proprietary methods, utilize resources more efficiently and effectively, and realize a greater return on investment. First published in 1995, TOGAF was based on the US Department of Defense Technical Architecture Framework for Information Management (TAFIM). From this sound foundation, The Open Group Architecture Forum has developed successive versions of TOGAF at regular intervals and published them on The Open Group public web site. Clarendon as Feasible Enterprise Architecture (EA) leader In its constant quest for maximizing the feasibility, upon engaging with new client, first step for Clarendon EA, is tailoring of the generic TOGAF EA framework. Goal is to provide business tailored and custom made yet comprehensive, project specific platform, for feasible: designing, planning, implementation, and governance. Clarendon EA practitioners initially work on a necessary high level and holistic approach to customer’s enterprise continuum, which is then typically partitioned into four solution domains: Business Application Data Technology Ultimately this approach, delivers a well-tested and strong model to both Clarendon EA and key business stake holders, which can then be built upon. This feasible EA development practice relies heavily on modularization, standardization and already existing, proven technologies and products. For Clarendon EA, TOGAF as a generic yet good architecture framework is closely followed with a set of proven principles which are used for developing a broad range of different architectures. For each new project, Clarendon EA tailors their sound and generic framework in order to successfully define and deliver the following: Method for defining an information system in terms of a set of building blocks Business friendly EA views, showing how the building blocks fit together Minimal but fully functional set of EA development and implementation tools Project and business specific common vocabulary applied. Comprehensive but feasible list of required standards And in particular: solutions for Compliance and Security requirements of the immediate IT landscape Page 12/66 2.3 Input Resource “Woody Biomass“ Phase 1 - years 1 to 7 In the Phase 1 (years 1 to 7) during the development period of the woody biomass plantation, the project assumes guaranteed resource from the Government Forest Agency (”Srpske Šume”) and private sawmills; based on market prices and a Government guaranteed long term (7 year) contract. Given that the pelleting plant will be designed for 7 to 9 tons per hour capacity, as a technical back-up and additional woody resource reserve, there is a financially unaccounted option to lift the production capacity from 5 to 7 tons an hour throughout the 20 years project life - should there be additional resource available from the private sawmills or forests and strategic decision being made for production expansion. 2.3.1 “Woody Biomass“and Transportation Purchase Costs – Years 1 to 7 2.3.2 Target Entities for the Woody Biomass Resource Purchase Public Forest Company of Republic of Srpska (Srpske Šume) www.sumers.org The entity in charge of forestry management is the Public Forest Company of Republic of Srpska (“Srpske Šume”) subordinated to the Ministry of Forestry, Agriculture and Water Management. The organizational structure is as follows: 23 Forest management units Research centers Nursery - seed production Centre Bare Mountainous Terrain Management Centre Main Office of Public Enterprise Page 13/66 The primary source of income for the Public Forest Company comes from the selling of the wood. Also, the private forest owners have to pay Forest Company 10% of the value of the sold wood. In addition, each legal entity has to pay 0.07% of the turnover for general useful purposes for the forest. List prices for the wood products are defined by the Government. As part of the Government of Republika Srpska endorsement of the subject projects, is engagement of a long term resource guarantee from the Forest Company of Republika Srpska. Private sawmills in Republika Srpska There are 470 sawmills in Republika Srpska that satisfy all minimal technical - technological requirements and employ approximately 9,000 workers. All economic entities in charge of primary wood processing, i.e. sawmills, need to have technicaltechnological documentation defining, among others, the way of dealing with waste created in the production process. Taking into consideration the quantity of logs that are annually cut, the total amount of waste in primary wood-processing amounts to 349,200 m³. Clarendon is in contact and discussion with several key sawmills in logistics proximity for potential long term contracting for waste from primary wood processing. 2.4 Input Resource ”Woody Biomass” Phase 2 – Years 8 to 20 The designated biomass culture are Paulownia trees that are best choice in respect to the climate and soil in the region, superior calorific value, ease and cost of cultivation, and environmental impact – also very true and ideal in Republika Srpska. Paulownia trees have 7 life cycles, where each cycle can range from 1 to 8 years – depending on the desired resource. In the Phase 2 (years 8 to 20) the project assumes guaranteed resource from own developed and operated Paulownia Industrial biomass plantation. The plantation assumes a long term lease (20 years) of 1,500 hectares of unused and uncultivated land from the designated municipality that will meet all the cultivating, infrastructure and location requirements for the industrial woody biomass plantation. The plantation will be divided in 5 parcels that that will rotate in 5 yearly cycles (7 years initial cycle) consisting of 300 hectares each, where each cycle will meet the resource demand for a 5 t/h pellet plant or total 153,000 m3 of woody biomass from trunks that will produce 40,000 t/y Enplus-A1 pellets and 1.5 Mw gasification power plant or 45.000 m3 of woody biomass from waste that will produce 10,500 Mw of electric power a year. Page 14/66 2.4.1 Woody Biomass Yields and Consumption from Paulownia Plantation Resource Phase 2 – Years 8 to 20 2.4.2 Advantages of Biomass Plantation as a Woody Biomass and Pellet Resource While material for woody biomass can come from many sources (e.g. forestry thinning operations, logging slash and residue, urban tree and shrub pruning, and waste from forest and wood-related industries), the focus for this project is the production of trees specifically for bioenergy. Woody plants primarily of interest for dedicated energy crops are fast-growing trees which re-sprout after each harvest (short rotation woody crops). Typically these planting are known as energy plantations. EU countries have set renewable energy targets for 2020, and most experts believe that meeting these targets will require a heavy focus on biomass, where most of it originate directly or indirectly from forests. However biomass demand for energy and pellets is growing at a much faster pace that forest biomass supply; more so due to new EU timber regulations that are being increasingly restrictive. Page 15/66 And there have been an avalanche of new biomass projects announced in Europe, especially in the UK With so much enthusiasm for biomass energy, there has also been growing interest in establishing dedicated biomass plantations (trees grown specifically for energy) due to following defined advantages: Page 16/66 General advantages: Biomass resource security – a major concern for investors and end-users. Subsidies in some countries, i.e.UK, give additional benefit if biomass consumed is from dedicated plantations. If planted close to end-user, this can save transport cost and reduces carbon emissions in transporting fuel to users. Can alleviate political issues related to sustainability (carbon absorbed while trees are growing, so no net emissions) and legality (new EU Timber Regulations) Elasticity of the resource as a product; it could be used or soled as an alternative or in parallel product to the wood industry Republika Srpska and regional advantages: Ideal climate and sufficient land resources at a fraction of a cost compared to EU average Abundant forest and arable land that does not compete with agriculture land or cause political issues Sufficient qualified labor at a fraction of a cost compared to EU average for labor intensive project Need and plan by local governments to improve forest maintenance and productivity and that is significantly under EU standards, and plans to incentivize cultivation of unused land and development of industrial plantations. Significantly lower cost of internally grown resource compared to market cost of purchasing resource 2.4.3 Why Paulownia and Paulownia Plantation as a Woody Biomass Resource Paulownia as a biomass source Biomass production typically involves smaller plants such as grasses or bushes because of their high growth rate. Of the very few trees that can approach this rate of growth, Paulownia is the fastest growing and most practical. Paulownia's upward growth also allows for a greater biomass yield per hectare than other plants. The tree is able to tolerate unfavorable soil and weather conditions that allow it to grow where crops and other trees can't. The trees are processed into pellets or turned into ethanol and Paulownia may eventually be used as a source of green oil. Short harvesting intervals When grown for biomass rather than timber, the focus is on total growth instead of producing a tall straight trunk. The tree's height is irrelevant when it comes to biomass production - the goal is to grow a short, stocky tree that can produce the maximum amount of energy per square meter of land. Paulownia can be harvested as early as one year but it is typical to wait 2-4 years for the initial harvest. The trees are then harvested yearly as they grow back. Our planned harvest cycle, based on optimization analysis and conducted feasibility study for pellet production, is initial 7 year cycle and succeeding 5 year cycles. Page 17/66 Multiple harvests With timber and quality pellet production, the emphasis is placed on growing trunks that are tall, straight, and thick – enabling quality and quantity industrial wood or wood pellet production. In this respect it is much like other hardwoods such as teak or mahogany. Unlike these more traditional trees, Paulownia's extreme growth rate allows it to be harvested as soon as 3-5 years, compared with 20 years for teak. Paulownia's regenerative ability means each planted tree will yield multiple harvests, compared to a single harvest for other trees. The multiple harvests go far beyond our planned 20 year project cycle – even by most conservative standards. 2.4.4 Advantages of Paulownia Pellets: Higher heat production equivalent to high grade coal and more efficient combustion than firewood Emits lower CO2 and on the list of the Kyoto Protocol as air cleaner Twice as dense as ordinary wooden pellets producing 3 times the energy output – 4,500 kcal/kg. Weighs less due to its low moisture content, reducing shipping or drying costs. Production by computer controlled, automated facilities, resulting in lower labor costs. Very easy maintenance, cutting and processing to pellets Obtaining and maintaining a very important ENplu-A1 pellet certification and quality will be significantly easier with Paulownia as the resource for pellet production. 2.4.5 Development Phases and Maintenance of Paulownia Trees and Plantation 2.4.5.1 Development Phases Page 18/66 Cutting for pellet production at year 5 of the harvest cycle Early stage Paulownia – from the nursery to the plantation Development stage Paulownia plantation Page 19/66 Mature stage Paulownia plantation Maintenance 2.4.6 The Opportunity with Biomass Paulownia Plantation as a Resource The opportunity for the project principals: Guaranteed and stable quantity production of woody biomass resource Guaranteed higher quality of woody biomass resource Lower and certain cost of the woody biomass resource comparing to market purchase cost from the local saw mills and the government forest agency Interest and opening for development and investing in other similar and larger projects in the sector, as continuation of the current project. Page 20/66 The opportunity for Republika Srpska: Significant employments opportunities given that biomass plantations are a labor intensive sector and particularly in less developed municipalities with high unemployment where the location of the plantation is planned. First in the region to produce and export high-end ENplus-A1 pellets, one of the few in Europe with resource coming from the biomass (paulownia) plantation exclusively for pellet production, with highest quality in Europe by EU standards (emission, calorific value, etc.) with a stamp “Made in RS”. Careful consideration of the use of woody biomass in forest management activities can lead to productive, healthy and resilient forests and also provide a multitude of benefits to the government forests, forest industry and in meeting national renewable energy goals and needs - particularly with biomass. Leading towards a long term partnership that will encompass stages beyond this initial project, including pilot and commercial development of biomass plantations (Paulownia and other) in cooperation with Government financed “Industrial Plantations” company, as the first of its kind in the region. 2.5 Output Product”ENplus-A1 pellets” 2.5.1 Experiences with Pellet Quality Certification in Residential Markets When pellets were first introduced as fuel for residential heating in Europe, a number of quality issues quickly emerged. These issues related both to the handling properties of pellets and to the combustion properties. A key issue was the durability of pellets and the amount of fines. As pellets were delivered by delivery trucks and blown into the storage cellar of customers with high speed, pellets with low mechanical stability were crushed and transformed to saw dust. Saw dust, however has completely different combustion properties than pellets and could not be burned properly in pellet boilers. A high amount of fines had a similar effect as fines can separate from pellets in the storage gradually and then lead to heating system failure. A similarly important issue turned out to be ash content and ash melting behavior. High ash content, which was often found to be related to lower ash melting temperature, led to failures in boiler operation as clinker blocked the burning system. Finally, contaminations were addressed, not only for technical reasons, but also for legal reasons. Contaminated wood such as waste wood would not only be more likely to lead to failures in heating system operation, but would also create elevated emissions of air pollutants and would be legally prohibited. To eliminate this possibility a number of elements indicative of contaminations such as N, S and heavy metals where introduced as criteria for determining pellet quality. With the rapidly increasing number of deliveries to customers it was impossible to test pellet quality for every single delivery. At the same time both traders and consumers had to be certain, that the pellets they delivered or received fulfilled all quality criteria. For this reason certification was introduced. By periodic inspection of production plants it was possible to ensure, that only clean raw material was used and mechanical properties of pellets always achieved the required specifications. It should be emphasized, that certification has completely achieved its purpose of securing consistent high quality production of pellets. Page 21/66 2.5.2 ENPlus Quality Classes The ENPlus quality certification is a major step towards establishing pellets as a widely used energy commodity. This system, based on the EN 14961-2 standard, is managed by the European Pellet Council (EPC) from January 2011. Today, EPC enjoys the support of large parts of the European and even World pellet sector. 103 producers and 134 traders are ENPlus certified amounting to a total of more than 4 million tons of ENPlus certified pellets. The ENPlus certification program covers three pellet quality classes with different demands on the used raw material as well as the wood pellet characteristics. They correspond to classes of the EN 1491-2 and are named: ENPlus-A1 ENPlus-A2 ENPlus-B 2.5.3 Target Market for Sale of ENplus-A1 pellets – Italy 2.5.3.1 Pellet Consumption and Supply in Italy When comparing supply with consumption data, it is clear that domestic production does not cover the total domestic demand for pellet. Only 28% of the demand is met by domestic production. A large part of pellet used in our country comes from abroad, both from European and non-European countries. Since 2009, official import / export data is published by Eurostat for all European countries. Previously, the survey of national import data was very tricky. According to Eurostat, Italy imported more than 471,600 tons in 2009 and over 827,200 tons in 2010. Although updated data is not yet available for 2011 it is safe to assume that the share of imports will exceed 1.2 million tons. It should be noted that large shares of imports are not subject to official statistics, partly because they are based on national statistics, often partial or unreliable. Comparison Between domestic demand and production Source: AIEL Page 22/66 2.5.3.2 Prices in Comparison to Other Fuel Heating Resources The comparison of costs of thermal energy generated by pellet and other fuels, both fossil and wood, is particularly interesting. Comparison of primary energy costs (€/MWh) produced by fossil and wood fuels (November 2011) 2.5.3.3 Existing Quality Certification System in Italy The first and only quality certification system in Italy, before the introduction of ENPlus, was Pellet Gold©, a voluntary certification introduced by AIEL and based on the main European pellet standards. As of 2011, Pellet Gold© has conformed with EN 14961-2 standards. Pellet Gold aims at insuring that pellet production meets the standards outlined in the certification requirements. It is the only European certification system that also provides for formaldehyde content testing (HCHO), essential in order to detect the presence of materials (glues and paints) dangerous to the health of consumers, as well as the presence of radioactivity. Page 23/66 2.5.3.4 Conclusions and Perspectives for the Pellet Market in Italy Over one and a half million families are presently using pellet-fueled domestic heating systems. The remarkable success of pellet stoves in Italy, as opposed to other European countries, was not due to specific subsidies but to the high price of traditional fossil fuels. At present, there are twenty-three pellet producers in Italy, fewer than in previous years. The past and present difficulties of the wood processing industry has a negative impact on pellet production and resulted in the decrease of production as well as the closing of several pellet producers. The domestic production in 2011 will not exceed 520,000 tons compared with a consumption of over 1.8 million tones. In order to meet the high demand, Italy must import at least 1.2 million tons of pellets. Italy is certainly the most important European pellet consumer and a major net importer. Almost all pellet traded in our country is packaged in 15 kg bags even if the share of pellet sold loose is rapidly growing. We estimate that the amount of loose pellet delivered by silo truck amounts to 91,000 tons. According to our estimates, should sales of pellet stoves and boilers settle at the levels of the last four years, the number of heating appliances installed by 2020 will exceed 3,670,000 units, resulting in a consumption of over 4 million tons of pellet per year. Sale forecasts of pellet heating appliances and pellet consumption by 2020 (Data by AIEL) Page 24/66 2.6 SWOT Analysis & Risk Milestones 2.6.1 SWOT Analysis 2.6.2 Key Development Risk and Milestones Allocation of land for biomass Paulownia plantation Construction permit Equipment testing Project management 2.6.3 Key Operational Risk and Milestones Operations Management Stable and sufficient resource supply on phase 1 (years 1 to 7) Target market pellet price Page 25/66 3. Technology and Technological Process The pelleting plant will be purchased from the Italian manufacturer “General Dies” who projects and produces high quality spare parts, equipment, machines for pelleting lines and complete installations that include the pelleting process. Following thorough research and negotiations, General Dies is our top choice as they meet all our key criteria for manufacturer selection: quality equipment and spare parts, responsiveness and proximity for spare parts and maintenance, technical fit for our project and competitive pricing. Below is a quick description of their technology and technological process explained for pellet production. The 5 tons an hour pellet plant will produce throughout the duration of the project 40,000 tons a year of highest quality certified Enplus-A1 pellets for exports to the high priced and growing Central European markets, with focus on Italy. The 1.5 Mw gasification plant will be implemented in the second phase ( development in years 9 and 10 and production in years 11 to 20) and produce 10,500 Mw of electricity to be sold to the government electric company on a long term contract based on “feed-in” tariffs. The purpose of this plant is to fully utilize 45,000 m3 Paulownia tree wastes that will be left behind. The preliminary choice of gasification and power generation for utilization of Paulownia tree wastes comes following thorough research and careful consideration of available technology and product options; having in mind that that renewable energy is a priority and fast growing segment in Europe and gasification technology as the most promising and efficient method of creating electric energy in the biomass sector in years to come. 3.1 Wood Processing and Pelleting - 5 t/h Woody Biomass Pellet Plant Wood processing and pelleting consists of the following stages: A. B. C. D. E. F. G. H. STAGE “A” CHIPPING and GRINDING STAGE “B” DRYING STAGE “C” REFINING STAGE “D” MIXING STAGE “E” PELLETING STAGE “F” COOLING STAGE “G” SIEVING STAGE “H” SACKING Page 26/66 Wood Processing and Pelleting – Process Scheme Page 27/66 3.1.1 STAGE “A” CHIPPING and GRINDING The raw material is mostly available in 3 forms: Trunks Lopping Sawmill waste Therefore a reduction in size is necessary. This operation can happen directly on the collection site, using specific machines with their own motors or connected to tractors. The product obtained are wet, medium size “chips”, and is suitable to be transported using the most common transport systems. The next step is to dry the chips to obtain the correct moisture percentage for the inlet in the pelleting machine. 3.1.2 STAGE “B” DRYING The moisture percentage of the wood chips must be reduced from 50% to not more then 12-13% through a rotary drum drier or a belt drier. This drying machine has a burner that can be fed with oil, gasoline, gas or wood. Page 28/66 3.1.3 STAGE “C” REFINING After the chips have been dried a refining process takes place; complete with sucking unit that reduces the dimensions of the product and prepares it for pelletizing. The product is also cleaned from any ferrous parts or foreign matters. 3.1.4 STAGE “D” MIXING The mixing silo makes the wood chips homogeneous where it can be also stocked. Page 29/66 3.1.5 STAGE “E” PELLETING Steam, molasses, fat or liquid can be added to the mixture as a conditioner before it enters the holes of the pellet-mill die, pressed by the rolls. On the outlet of the holes, knives cut the pellets at the desired length. Origin Italy Model Omega-67 Pellet size 6mm in diameter x 20-30mm in length Bulk density 1000-1100 kg/m3 Output 2000 kg/hour 3.1.6 STAGE “F” COOLING After pelleting, the pellets are very hot and need to be cooled by a counter flow cooler, to approximately +5°C above the environmental temperature, in order give it the right hardness and the better consistence for storage and handling. The counter flow cooler machine has a full line of air intake and recovery powders. Page 30/66 3.1.7 STAGE “G” SIEVING A sieve removes the fines form the pellets where a screw or pneumatic conveyor collects these fines and send them back to the pellet-mill. 3.1.8 STAGE “H” SACKING The pelletized product is conveyed to the silo for stocking before delivery. It can be delivered in bulk, loaded on trucks and weighed through a weigh lorry or in bags. A manual or automatic weighing-sacking system and palletizer are used for bagging the product. Page 31/66 3.2 4. 4.1 1.5 Mw/h Gasification and Power Generation Plant Production Process Flow Chart and Development Phases Production Process Flow Chart Page 32/66 4.2 Development Phases Pellet Plant Development Phases 1 Q - 4Q 2015 Paulownia Plantation Development Phases 2016 - 2023 Gasification Power Plant Development Phases 2024 - 2025 Page 33/66 5. Market Research 5.1 Country Preference ”Why Republika Sprska” 5.2 Political commitment and building new capacities for energy production from renewables Positive renewable energy Legal development and regulation in Republika Srpska Favorable greenfield and brown field-privatization laws and regulations Transparent and guaranteed ”Feed-in Tariffs” Favorable regulations for acquiring necessary licensing, permitting and operations of renewable energy plants Natural Resources and Potentials Excellent forest growth potential Ideal climate, moisture and soil for energy plantation development Available arid land and excellent energy plantation growth potential Available arid lands for Underused woody biomass and other biomass potential Wood processing tradition of more than 150 years Permanent export-orientation Available quality labor, particularly in the wood industry Geographic position of the Republic of Srpska, proximity to the key target European pellet markets Liberalized trade (CEFTA) ”Woody Biomass” Market Research The most significant source of biomass for energy production is wood mass from forests (fuel wood, forest residues and wood waste from wood processing industry), which is the focus resource for the subject project. The forests are the main natural resource in Republika Srpska; it is one of the richest countries in Europe in terms of forest cover and variety in relation to the size of the country (per capita 0,74 ha of forest are available putting RS on the sixth place in Europe in terms of forest availability) The forest land covers approximately 1 million ha (47% of the total area of RS). Total wood stock is 183 million m3, where forests and forestlands cover about 50% of the territory. Page 34/66 Forest land in Republic of Srpska by forest categories Source: Public Forestry Company Šume RS 5.3 ”Wood Pellets” Market Research 5.3.1 Introduction 5.3.1.1 Introduction and Benefits of Wood Pellets Today, wood pellets are probably the largest traded solid biomass commodity used specifically for energy purposes and in terms of traded volume can be compared to biodiesel or bio-ethanol (Heinimö and Junginger 2009). Wood pellets have relatively favorable conditions for transportation: low moisture content and relatively high energy density (about 17-17.6 GJLHV/ton). While handling of wood pellets still requires great care, the advantages over other solid biomass types such as wood chips or agricultural residues are their storability, relatively easy handling and typically lower transport costs for distances larger than 50 to 100 km compared to other solid biomass types such as wood chips. 5.3.1.2 Summary Market Analysis of Wood Pellets in Europe The importance of wood pellets for small and medium scale heat production and large scale power generation is continuously increasing across Europe. Pellet use can contribute substantially to renewable heat and electricity targets set by the EU Renewable Energy Directive. Besides the established national pellet markets (e.g. Sweden, Austria), which are still growing strongly, additional pellet markets are emerging across Europe. This diversity regarding market development stages is accompanied by the development of heterogeneous demand and trade structures. In countries such as Germany, Austria and Italy, wood pellets are exclusively used in heat production for the residential sector while the industrial use for power generation prevails in the United Kingdom, the Netherlands and Belgium. Page 35/66 In Sweden and Denmark, both sectors are well established. In terms of trade, many of the developed national pellet markets depend on imports from countries with surplus pellet production. These are, besides Germany and Austria, mainly the Eastern European countries and Canada. While some markets such as Germany or Austria are largely self-sufficient, other markets depend to a very large extent on the import of wood pellets (e.g. the Netherlands, Belgium, Denmark and Italy). 5.3.1.3 Directives of the European Union for wood pellets and environmental advantages In January 2007, the European Commission launched a plan for a more ambitious and integrated policy for Europe in order to tackle the issues of climate change and energy supply. The Spring European Council of March 2007 endorsed the plan and called for, amongst others, the following objectives: 20% share of renewables in overall EU energy consumption in 2020 20% of reduction in greenhouse gas emissions The EU Directive defines three options to reach the „20% renewable goal‟ in 2020: the use of renewable electricity the use of renewable energy for heating and cooling the use of renewable transportation fuels (e.g. liquid biofuels) Wood pellets can contribute to the first two options (electricity and heating). In the near future wood pellets could also be used as lignocellulose feedstock for the production of liquid second generation biofuels. The use of wood pellets (replacing fossil fuels) also leads to the reduction of greenhouse gas emission and therefore also contributes to the second objective of the directive. 5.3.2 Generalities of the Pellet Sector 5.3.2.1 World Wood Pellet Production Wood pellet production started in Europe and North America during the oil crisis of the 1970’s. From 2000, the wood pellet market grew very rapidly with more than a tenfold increase in 12 years. In 2000, the annual production was around 1.8 million tons with a 50%/50% share between the EU 27 and North America. By the end of 2012, there were 760 pellet production plants amounting to a global production capacity of 42 million tons with actual production ranging from 22.4 million to 24.5 million. During this period (2000-2012), some new production countries emerged: some EU countries, Russia, China, Brazil, etc. The EU remains by far the biggest world pellet producer with actual production ranging from 10.5 million tons to 11.2 million tons in 2012. The EU pellet sector is comprised of a number of medium and small scale pellet producers. The largest pellet producers are mainly located in North America and Russia. Page 36/66 World wood pellet production share in 2012 5.3.2.2 World Wood Pellet Consumption World pellet consumption ranges from 22.4 million to 24.5 million tons. The EU is by far the biggest pellet consumer worldwide with an average consumption of 15.1 million tons in 2012. World wood pellets consumption share in 2012 (million tons) Page 37/66 5.3.2.3 World Wood Pellet Trade More and more the pellet market is becoming increasingly globalized. The main exporter to EU is North America followed by Russia. Countries such as Australia, New Zealand and South Africa are also exporting a minor quantity of pellets to EU. Current projections show that EU consumption will continue to expand. Some non-European countries, such as Japan and South Korea, are foreseen as potential big pellet consumers. 5.3.3 Situation in Europe 5.3.3.1 European Wood Pellet Production Globally, European pellet production had a growth of more than 30% from 2009 to 2012, where some countries are reaching their pellets production limits or even decreasing their production (DK, FI, IT, SE). This situation is due to different reasons: lack of (affordable) raw materials, high production costs, competition with importing countries. Other countries (AT, BE, DE, ES, FR, LT, LV, PL, PT) show a slight or even strong growth of pellet production. 5.3.3.2 European Wood Pellet Consumption Pellets consumption for heating With a consumption of nearly 8 million tons, the heating sector is a big player in EU pellet consumption with a share of more than 50 % of the total EU pellet consumption. This sector is more predicable than the power sector and its growth of more than 1 million tons a year (5.6 million tons in 2010) is significant. European pellets consumption for heating (2012-2013) Page 38/66 Main EU pellet consumers for heating in 2012 (in tons) Pellets consumption for power plants The projections for the use of pellets for electricity production (including CHP) are stable in most EU countries except the UK which is foreseen to become a big industrial pellet consumer. Main EU pellet consuming countries for power plants (2012-2013) Share of heat/power pellets consumption One can observe very different trends depending on the country. Some countries (BE, NL and UK) are driven by the pellet power market. In contrast, other countries (AT, DE, FR, IT) are almost exclusively driven by the pellet heat market. Page 39/66 Share of heat/power pellet consumption in the highest consuming EU countries (2012) 5.3.4 European Wood Pellet Trade 10 EU main pellets exporting and importing countries Page 40/66 5.3.5 European Wood Pellet Price Pellets are the product with lowest price differences among the observed countries; the difference among the lowest and highest price is around 25%. It is important to note that pellet prices differ among quantity classes, but also among sold quantity/packaging. Domestic bulk pellet price (€/t, delivered, VAT incl., 2009-2013) Bagged pellet price (€/t, retailer price, palette, VAT incl., 2009-2013) Page 41/66 5.3.6 Prices in Comparison to other Fuel Heating Resources Wood pellets display their true strength in a price comparison with other energy sources. No other comfort fuel can presently keep pace with wood pellets in terms of price. WOOD PELLET PRICE CAUGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE OIL PRICE? It has repeatedly been claimed that wood pellet costs follow oil costs. However, the development in recent years has shown that this is not the case. While the costs for heating oil are subject to extreme price fluctuations, the costs for wood pellets are largely stable. The average wood pellet price in 2011, after adjusting for inflation, was lower than the wood pellet price in 2001. The brief price peak in 2006 developed as a consequence of the particularly cold and snowy winter, which caused problems with timber transport, as well as of the rapidly increasing demand. In the meantime, over 400 wood pellet plants have been built all over Europe. Production capacities in Austria have nearly doubled. And the standardization of European quality standards (ENPlus) has increased the permeability of the markets. Today, a high degree of supply security and price stability thereby exists. Page 42/66 6. Financial Plan Analysis The financial plan analysis is based on a 20 year financial projections and life cycle of the technology and lease of the 1,500 hectares of Paulownia biomass plantation. The financial plan assumes investment in the following: Development of 7 to 9 (2x3.5, 2x4.5) tons an hour capacity pellet plant which will produce 5 tons an hour or 40,000 tons a year of high quality ENplus-A1 pellets. Leased of 1,500 hectares of arable land and development of a Paulownia plantation; divided in 5 cycles of 300 hectares each in the first phase (years 1 to 7) that will be in production from year 8 Development of 1.5 Mw/h woody biomass power plant in years 9 and 10 that will be in production in year 11, when the woody resource for pellet production will start to be utilized from the Paulownia plantation, leaving behind 45,000 m/3 per of Paulownia wood waste. This will generate additional 1,200,000€ revenue based on current feed-in tariffs of Republika Srpska. Capital cost assumptions for the pellet plant is in the development year (Q1Q4 2015), for the Paulownia plantation during the first phase (years 1 to 7) and for the Gasification and power Generation plant in years 9 and 10. Direct cost assumptions are based on current capital, payroll and operational costs throughout the 20 year financial projections. Direct cost assumption for the woody biomass resource in phase 1 (years 1 to 7) is based on the current woody biomass price list of the Republika Srpska Government Forest Agency “Srpske Šume“, and local saw mill prices for wood waste and saw dust. Direct cost assumptions for the woody biomass resource in phase 2 (years 8 to 20) is consumed by capital, payroll and operational costs. Indirect cost assumptions are based on financing70% credit for a 7 year return period at an incentive 4.2% interest rate for renewable energy projects, and 10% corporate tax in Republika Srpska. Carbon credits and other “green energy” incentives and bonuses are not taken into account, although this additional benefit is expected to take into effect in the earlier part of the 20 year project duration. Tax holidays are also not taken into account, although this project most likely qualifies for at least a 5 year tax holiday. Additional spare 2 to 4 t/h pellet plant capacity is a technical reserve and resource expansion reserve that could, should there be available additional resource, lift the production of pellets from 5 to 7 t/h or from 40,000 to 56,000 tons per year, that would increase the revenue from 6,800,000 € to 9,520,000 €. There are additional 2 to 3 harvest cycles for the Paulownia plantation beyond the 20 years financial lifespan of the project, that can be utilized either as an expansion of the existing project or as production of industrial wood. Selling price of ENplus-A1 pellets is based on the current low-end x-Works price for central and eastern Europe at 170€ p/t, and selling price of Power Generation at current “feed-in” tariffs of Republika Srpska at 120 € p/h. Initial and summary for the financial plan are available in the top segment of the Financial Plan Analysis: Resource Assumptions, General Assumptions and Financial Summary sections. Financial price scenarios and Exit strategy “optimistic and pessimistic” for ENplus-A1 pellets sale prices are furnished in the bottom segment of the Financial Plan Analysis. Page 43/66 6.1 Resource Assumptions RESOURCE ASSUMPTIONS Years 1-7 “Woody Biomass“ Expense Woody Biomass from "Srpske Šume" Heating Wood Hardwood II class Heating Wood Softwood II class Transportation Price per M3 € 21.40 € 22.50 € 17.00 € 6.81 Annual M3 Annual Expense 73,436 € 1,571,520 58,748 14,687 73,436 € 1,321,839 € 249,681 € 500,000 Total with Transportation: € 2,071,520 Years 8-20 "Paulownia Biomass" Plantation Paulownia Assumptions Age per initial harvest /years Age per following harvest /years Diameter /cm Height /m Number of yearly cycles m3 / per tree trunk Surface of yearly cycle /h Total surface /h Trees /h Trees per cycle Total trees Paulownia Characteristics 7.0 5.0 30.0 12.0 5.0 0.85 300.0 1,500.0 600.0 180,000 900,000 Soil Conditions Altitude Temperature Density Calorific Value Moisture pH 5 - 8.5 < 2,000 m from -29c to +40c 262 kg/m3 4,500 kcal/kg 13% Paulownia Plantation yields M3 yields trunk residue total Total dry matter (TDM) yields trunk residue total m3/hc 509 153 661 tdm t/hc 133 40 173 m3/cycle 152,604 45,781 198,385 tdm t/cycle 39,982 12,056 52,038 m3/total 763,020 228,906 991,926 tdm t/total 199,911 60,279 260,190 tdm t/h 5 0 5 tdm t/h 0 1.50 1.5 h/year 8,000 0 8,000 h/year 0 7,000 7,000 tdm t/year 40,000 0 40,000 tdm t/year 0 10,500 10,500 Paulownia Biomass Consumption Pellet plant consumption trunk residue total Gasification plant consumption trunk residue total Page 44/66 6.2 Genneral Assumptions GENERAL ASSUMPTIONS Product - Wood Pellets "Enplus-A1" & Renewable Electric Energy Wood Pellets "ENplus-A1" - t/h Renewable Electric Energy - Mw/h Unit Selling Price Annual Quantity € 170 40,000 € 120 10,500 Total: Annual Sales € 6,800,000 € 1,260,000 € 8,060,000 Project Costs Total Capital Expenses - Pellet Plant Total Capital Expenses - Paulownia Plantation Total Capital Expenses - Gasification Plant 4,389,274 € 7,892,999 € 3,193,129 € Total Capital Expenses 15,475,401 € Average Operational Expenses - years 1 to 7 Average Payroll Expenses - years 1 to 7 3,752,872 € 496,206 € Average - years 1 to 7 4,249,078 € Average Operational Expenses - years 8 to 20 Average Payroll Expenses - years 8 to 20 2,556,579 € 815,215 € Average - years 8 to 20 3,371,794 € Project Finance Equity Financing % Credit Financing % Equity Financing Credit Financing Total Financing Annual Interest Rate for Credit Financing Credit Interest and Principal Total Credit Payment Amount Total Interest Payment Amount 30% 70% € 1,905,582 € 4,446,358 € 6,351,940 4.2% € 746,291 € 5,224,036 € 777,677 Taxes Taxes % Average Total Annual Taxes 10% € 375,116 Project Duration Development - Years Pellet Plant Paulownia Plantation Power Plant 10 1 7 2 Technical Life - Years 20 Pellet Plant Paulownia Plantation Power Plant 25 37 15 Financial Assumptions - Years 20 Page 45/66 6.3 Financial Summary Page 46/66 6.4 Sales Forecast (average, years 2016-2025, years 2026-2035) Sales Forecast 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Unit Sales (t) Wood Pellets "ENPlus-A1" Electric Energy MW/h 40,000 40,000 40,000 40,000 40,000 40,000 40,000 40,000 40,000 40,000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Unit Price Wood Pellets "ENPlus-A1" Electric Energy MW/h 170.00 € 120 € 170.00 € 120 € 170.00 € 120 € 170.00 € 120 € 170.00 € 120 € 170.00 € 120 € 170.00 € 120 € 170.00 € 120 € 170.00 € 120 € 170.00 € 120 € Sales Wood Pellets "ENPlus-A1" Electric Energy MW/h Total Sales 6,800,000 € 6,800,000 € 6,800,000 € 6,800,000 € 6,800,000 € 6,800,000 € 6,800,000 € 6,800,000 € 6,800,000 € 0€ 0€ 0€ 0€ 0€ 0€ 0€ 0€ 0€ 6,800,000 € 0€ 6,800,000 € 6,800,000 € 6,800,000 € 6,800,000 € 6,800,000 € 6,800,000 € 6,800,000 € 6,800,000 € 6,800,000 € 6,800,000 € 73.53 € 79.28 € 81.57 € 84.17 € 86.46 € 86.14 € 91.59 € 41.45 € 41.45 € 41.45 € 0.00 € 0.00 € 0.00 € 0.00 € 0.00 € 0.00 € 0.00 € 0.00 € 0.00 € 0.00 € 2,941,046 € 0€ 3,171,078 € 0€ 3,262,660 € 0€ 3,366,642 € 0€ 3,458,224 € 0€ 3,445,606 € 0€ 3,663,406 € 0€ 1,657,887 € 0€ 1,657,887 € 0€ 1,657,887 € 0€ Direct Unit Costs Wood Pellets "ENPlus-A1" Electric Energy MW/h Direct Cost of Sales Wood Pellets "ENPlus-A1" Electric Energy MW/h MARGINS Margins Total Margins % Sales Forecast 3,858,954 € 3,628,922 € 3,537,340 € 3,433,358 € 3,341,776 € 3,354,394 € 3,136,594 € 5,142,114 € 5,142,114 € 5,142,114 € 57% 53% 52% 50% 49% 49% 46% 76% 76% 76% 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 Unit Sales (t) Wood Pellets "ENPlus-A1" 40,000 40,000 40,000 40,000 40,000 40,000 40,000 40,000 40,000 40,000 Electric Energy MW/h 10,500 10,500 10,500 10,500 10,500 10,500 10,500 10,500 10,500 10,500 170.00 € 170.00 € 170.00 € 170.00 € 170.00 € 170.00 € 170.00 € 170.00 € 170.00 € 170.00 € Unit Price Wood Pellets "ENPlus-A1" Electric Energy MW/h 120 € 120 € 120 € 120 € 120 € 120 € 120 € 120 € 120 € 120 € Sales Wood Pellets "ENPlus-A1" 6,800,000 € 6,800,000 € 6,800,000 € 6,800,000 € 6,800,000 € 6,800,000 € 6,800,000 € 6,800,000 € 6,800,000 € 6,800,000 € Electric Energy MW/h 1,260,000 € 1,260,000 € 1,260,000 € 1,260,000 € 1,260,000 € 1,260,000 € 1,260,000 € 1,260,000 € 1,260,000 € 1,260,000 € Total Sales 8,060,000 € 8,060,000 € 8,060,000 € 8,060,000 € 8,060,000 € 8,060,000 € 8,060,000 € 8,060,000 € 8,060,000 € 8,060,000 € Wood Pellets "ENPlus-A1" 24.68 € 24.68 € 24.68 € 24.68 € 24.68 € 24.68 € 24.68 € 24.68 € 24.68 € 24.68 € Electric Energy MW/h 94.01 € 94.01 € 94.01 € 94.01 € 94.01 € 94.01 € 94.01 € 94.01 € 94.01 € 94.01 € 987,132 € 987,132 € 987,132 € 987,132 € 987,132 € 987,132 € 987,132 € 987,132 € 987,132 € 987,132 € 987,132 € 987,132 € 987,132 € 987,132 € 987,132 € 987,132 € 987,132 € 987,132 € 987,132 € 987,132 € Direct Unit Costs Direct Cost of Sales Wood Pellets "ENPlus-A1" Electric Energy MW/h MARGINS Margins Total Margins % 5,812,868 € 5,812,868 € 5,812,868 € 5,812,868 € 5,812,868 € 5,812,868 € 5,812,868 € 5,812,868 € 5,812,868 € 5,812,868 € 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% Page 47/66 6.5 Capital Expenses (total, Q1-Q4 2015, 2016-2025) Page 48/66 Page 49/66 Page 50/66 6.6 Payroll Expenses (average, years 2016-2025, years 2026-2035) Page 51/66 Page 52/66 6.7 Operational Expenses (average, years 2016-2025, years 2026-2035) Page 53/66 6.8 Pro Forma Profit and Loss (years 2016-2025, years 2026-2035) Page 54/66 6.9 Pro Forma Cash Flow (Q1-Q4 2015, years 2016-2025, years 2026-2035) Page 55/66 Page 56/66 Page 57/66 6.10 Pro Forma Balance Sheet (years 2016-2025, years 2026-2035) Page 58/66 6.11 Break-even Analysis – Pellets (years 1-7 and 8-20) Page 59/66 6.12 Ratios (years 2016-2025, years 2026-2035) Page 60/66 6.13 Exit Strategy 6.13.1 Definition The perceived and suggested modes of an exit strategy are as follows: The 3 most classic and basic exit strategies are: Develop the firm to a level that it will be taken over by a larger organization sometime in the future. Take the firm public with an initial public offering (IPO) of stock. The managers who wish to stay in the business take over the investors with replacement capital from other sources of investment or from the business’s profits. The Other Kinds of Exit Strategies: Raising the free cash flows and tapping them – With venture-backed deals it is paying dividends; with small businesses it’s retained earnings and with corporate entrepreneurship, it’s enhancing the earnings of the shareholder. Marketing to a financial buyer – To a private equity group or a venture capital organization, either to be reconstituted and merged with one of their portfolio firms and sometimes to be operated as a stand-alone. 6.13.2 Target Assumptions based on financial analysis (defined in article 5) and the NPV (Net Present Value) suggests an exit strategy between years 5 and 8, where the NPV stands between 19,000,000 € and 25,000,000 €. The years 1 to 4 the floor is the suggested technical and commercial time frame for proof of concept and stability of the project, while year 13 is the ceiling. NPV is calculated based on a 20 year life of the technology, proof of resource and commercial contract. The discount rate due to higher initial risk ranges from 25% in the first year than drops from year 4 to year 20 to 10%. NPV (Net Present Value) 30,000,000 € 25,000,000 € 20,000,000 € 15,000,000 € 10,000,000 € 5,000,000 € 0€ Page 61/66 6.14 Scenarios – Assumptions and Conditions Financial outcome of this project is by no means based on fixed parameters and is conditioned on the inflation rate and an array of the following variable parameters: ENplus-A1 pellet price Operational expenses – particularly resource costs Payroll expenses Taxes, duties and other administrative costs By far the most important and unpredictable of the above is the variation of the ENplus-A1 pellet price that will be the sole parameter in determining the best and worst case scenarios. Parallel to the financial plan summary (article 5 above) that is based on European market average cash price, the section below covers Monte Carlo approach price scenario simulation analysis ranging from worst to best price fluctuation as a measure of stability of revenue and profitability of the project in different market environments. 6.14.1 Monte Carlo Price Scenario Simulation Analysis – 20 years Scenarios Minimum Average Maximum Optimistic 170 € 213 € 251 € Current 170 € 170 € 170 € 110 € 148 € 170 € Pessimistic Scenarios Optimistic Current Pessimistic 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Scenarios Optimistic Current Pessimistic 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 170 € 179 € 180 € 181 € 173 € 188 € 203 € 215 € 231 € 220 € 170 € 170 € 170 € 170 € 170 € 170 € 170 € 170 € 170 € 170 € 170 € 162 € 168 € 161 € 163 € 155 € 164 € 165 € 159 € 166 € 229 € 213 € 209 € 220 € 238 € 248 € 233 € 248 € 251 € 240 € 170 € 170 € 170 € 170 € 170 € 170 € 170 € 170 € 170 € 170 € 157 € 152 € 153 € 145 € 133 € 120 € 115 € 110 € 117 € 124 € Page 62/66 Page 63/66 6.14.2 Worst Case “Pessimistic” Scenario Financial Summary Years 1-20 Average Years 1-7 Average Years 8-20 Average Minimum Maximum Return on Investment (ROI) Years (ROI) Return on Principal Investment (ROPI) 3.74 Return on Equity Investment (ROEI) 2.43 32.42% 94.36% 17.86% 20.38% 40.26% 134.20% 1.40% -3.02% 58.28% 192.07% Sales 6,548,000 € 6,531,429 € 6,556,923 € 5,660,000 € 7,540,000 € Margins Margins % 3,999,293 € 68.68% 3,186,919 € 48.71% 4,436,725 € 2,739,694 € 79.43% 43.93% 5,285,518 € 84.16% Net Profit 2,001,232 € 1,400,852 € 2,324,513 € 703,767 € 3,133,355 € 34.19% 21.28% 41.14% 11.35% 49.89% 1,799,178 € 388,608 € 2,558,715 € -57,535 € 3,662,227 € Net Profit / Sales Net Cash Flow Cash Balance 14,272,965 € 2,131,662 € 20,810,589 € 1,157,435 € 35,983,557 € Net Worth NPV (Net Present Value) 22,192,994 € 8,580,558 € 29,522,767 € 4,307,334 € 41,931,319 € 11,307,706 € 10,729,490 € 11,619,053 € 2,249,298 € 18,158,529 € Page 64/66 6.14.3 Best Case “Optimistic” Scenario Financial Summary Years 1-20 Average Years 1-7 Average Years 8-20 Average Minimum Maximum Return on Investment (ROI) Years (ROI) Return on Principal Investment (ROPI) 2.52 Return on Equity Investment (ROEI) 1.64 69.52% 218.03% 28.46% 55.72% 91.63% 305.43% 10.65% 27.81% 110.87% 369.55% Sales 9,168,000 € 7,280,000 € 10,184,615 € 6,800,000 € 11,300,000 € Margins Margins % 6,619,293 € 75.73% 3,935,491 € 54.05% 8,064,417 € 3,447,076 € 87.41% 49.81% 9,045,518 € 90.09% Net Profit 4,359,232 € 2,074,566 € 5,589,436 € 1,483,700 € 6,517,355 € 49.31% 28.56% 60.48% 21.44% 64.91% 4,157,178 € 1,062,323 € 5,823,638 € 530,314 € 7,046,227 € Net Profit / Sales Net Cash Flow Cash Balance 30,418,965 € Net Worth NPV (Net Present Value) 38,338,994 € 10,519,415 € 53,318,767 € 4,307,334 € 89,091,319 € 4,070,519 € 44,606,589 € 1,157,435 € 83,143,557 € 26,895,331 € 24,259,682 € 28,314,527 € 6,045,661 € 38,898,413 € Page 65/66 Contact Information Page 66/66