CHAPTER 6 McGraw-Hill/Irwin Net Present Value and Other Investment Rules Copyright © 2008 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved Slide 2 Chapter Outline 6.1 Why Use Net Present Value? 6.2 The Payback Period Method 6.3 The Discounted Payback Period Method 6.4 The Average Accounting Return Method 6.5 The Internal Rate of Return 6.6 Problems with the IRR Approach 6.7 The Profitability Index 6.8 The Practice of Capital Budgeting McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright © 2008 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved Slide 3 6.1 Why Use Net Present Value? • Accepting positive NPV projects benefits shareholders. Forgoing the project today, the value of the firm today is $V + $100 Accepting the project today, the value of the firm today is $V + $100.94 (107/1.06) The difference is $0.94. • The value of the firm rises by the NPV of the project. McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright © 2008 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved Slide 4 • The discount rate on a risky project is the return that one can expect to earn on a financial asset of comparable risk. • This discount rate is often referred to as an opportunity cost. McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright © 2008 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved Slide 5 The Net Present Value (NPV) Rule • Net Present Value (NPV) = -Initial Investment +Total PV of future CF’s • Estimating NPV: – 1. Estimate future cash flows: how much? and when? – 2. Estimate discount rate – 3. Estimate initial costs • Minimum Acceptance Criteria: Accept if NPV > 0 • Ranking Criteria: Choose the highest NPV McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright © 2008 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved Slide 6 Good Attributes of the NPV Rule • 1. Uses cash flows • 2. Uses ALL cash flows of the project • 3. Discounts ALL cash flows properly • Reinvestment assumption: the NPV rule assumes that all cash flows can be reinvested at the discount rate. McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright © 2008 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved Slide 7 6.2 The Payback Period Method • How long does it take the project to “pay back” its initial investment? • Payback Period = number of years to recover initial costs • Minimum Acceptance Criteria: – Set by management • Ranking Criteria: – Set by management McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright © 2008 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved Slide 8 The Payback Period Method • Disadvantages: – Ignores the time value of money – Ignores cash flows after the payback period – Biased against long-term projects – Requires an arbitrary acceptance criteria – A project accepted based on the payback criteria may not have a positive NPV • Advantages: – Easy to understand – Biased toward liquidity McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright © 2008 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved Slide 9 • The payback rule is often used by: large and sophisticated companies when making relatively small decisions, or firms with very good investment opportunities but no available cash (small, privately held firms with good growth prospects but limited access to the capital markets). McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright © 2008 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved 6.3 The Discounted Payback Period Slide 10 • How long does it take the project to “pay back” its initial investment, taking the time value of money into account? • Decision rule: Accept the project if it pays back on a discounted basis within the specified time. • By the time you have discounted the cash flows, you might as well calculate the NPV. McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright © 2008 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved Slide 11 6.4 Average Accounting Return Average Net Income AAR Average Book Value of Investment • Another attractive, but fatally flawed, approach • Ranking Criteria and Minimum Acceptance Criteria set by management McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright © 2008 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved 12 Slide 13 Average Accounting Return • Disadvantages: – Ignores the time value of money – Uses an arbitrary benchmark cutoff rate – Based on book values, not cash flows and market values • Advantages: – The accounting information is usually available – Easy to calculate McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright © 2008 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved Slide 14 6.5 The Internal Rate of Return • IRR: the discount rate that sets NPV to zero • Minimum Acceptance Criteria: – Accept if the IRR exceeds the required return • Ranking Criteria: – Select alternative with the highest IRR • Reinvestment assumption: – All future cash flows assumed reinvested at the IRR McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright © 2008 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved Slide 15 Internal Rate of Return (IRR) • Disadvantages: – Does not distinguish between investing and borrowing – IRR may not exist, or there may be multiple IRRs – Problems with mutually exclusive investments • Advantages: – Easy to understand and communicate McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright © 2008 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved Slide 16 IRR: Example Consider the following project: 0 -$200 $50 $100 $150 1 2 3 The internal rate of return for this project is 19.44% $50 $100 $150 NPV 0 200 2 3 (1 IRR) (1 IRR) (1 IRR) McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright © 2008 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved Slide 17 NPV Payoff Profile If we graph NPV versus the discount rate, we can see the IRR as the x-axis intercept. McGraw-Hill/Irwin $100.00 $73.88 $51.11 $31.13 $13.52 ($2.08) ($15.97) ($28.38) ($39.51) ($49.54) ($58.60) ($66.82) NPV 0% 4% 8% 12% 16% 20% 24% 28% 32% 36% 40% 44% $120.00 $100.00 $80.00 $60.00 $40.00 $20.00 $0.00 ($20.00)-1% ($40.00) ($60.00) ($80.00) IRR = 19.44% 9% 19% 29% 39% Discount rate Copyright © 2008 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved Slide 18 6.6 Problems with IRR Multiple IRRs Are We Borrowing or Lending The Scale Problem The Timing Problem McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright © 2008 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved Slide 19 Mutually Exclusive vs. Independent • Mutually Exclusive Projects: only ONE of several potential projects can be chosen, e.g., acquiring an accounting system. – RANK all alternatives, and select the best one. • Independent Projects: accepting or rejecting one project does not affect the decision of the other projects. – Must exceed a MINIMUM acceptance criteria McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright © 2008 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved Slide 20 The Scale Problem (P.175) McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright © 2008 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved Slide 21 The Timing Problem $10,000 $1,000 $1,000 Project A 0 1 2 3 -$10,000 $1,000 $1,000 $12,000 Project B 0 1 2 3 -$10,000 McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright © 2008 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved Slide 22 The Timing Problem $5,000.00 Project A $4,000.00 Project B $3,000.00 NPV $2,000.00 $1,000.00 10.55% = crossover rate $0.00 ($1,000.00) 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% ($2,000.00) ($3,000.00) ($4,000.00) ($5,000.00) 12.94% = IRRB McGraw-Hill/Irwin 16.04% = IRRA Discount rate Copyright © 2008 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved Slide 23 NPV versus IRR • NPV and IRR will generally give the same decision. • Exceptions: – Non-conventional cash flows – cash flow signs change more than once – Mutually exclusive projects • Initial investments are substantially different • Timing of cash flows is substantially different McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright © 2008 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved Slide 24 6.7 The Profitability Index (PI) Total PV of Future Cash Flows PI Initial Investent • Minimum Acceptance Criteria: – Accept if PI > 1 • Ranking Criteria: – Select alternative with highest PI McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright © 2008 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved Slide 25 The Profitability Index • Disadvantages: – Problems with mutually exclusive investments • Advantages: – May be useful when available investment funds are limited – Easy to understand and communicate – Correct decision when evaluating independent projects McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright © 2008 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved Slide 26 6.8 The Practice of Capital Budgeting • Varies by industry: • The most frequently used technique for large corporations is IRR or NPV. McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright © 2008 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved 7 8 27 28 Slide 29 The Internal Rate of Return: Example Consider the following project: 0 -$200 $50 $100 $150 1 2 3 The internal rate of return for this project is 19.44% $50 $100 $150 NPV 0 $200 2 3 (1 IRR) (1 IRR) (1 IRR) McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright © 2008 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved