Good evening everyone! Allow me to start with a prayer. (Play prayer video) Hail Mary…
Once again, good evening Prof. Tagama and good evening my dear classmates! I’m Mr. Mike Angelo B.
Casapao, your discussant for tonight. The topic I chose is entitled….
(SLIDE #1)
TITLE: FUTURISTIC PLANNING IN EDUCATION…
(SLIDE #2)
In the title, there are 3 elements involved in the title which are Future, Planning, and Education.
Future is time or events that are still to come, planning is the process of fore thinking and of
course, education is the process of giving or receiving instruction. The biggest question here is
what qualifies a plan for education to be futuristic or future-oriented? Kailan natin masasabi na
ang plano para sa edukasyon ay para sa hinaharap?
For this report, we have three objectives.
(SLIDE #3)
I. OBJECTIVES
-
Explain the concepts of futuristic planning.
Describe and examine the processes and steps of futuristic planning
Apply futuristic planning in education.
Topics to be discussed include…
(SLIDE #4)
II. CONTENT
1. Futuristic Planning
1.1 Concept and Definition
2. The Processes and Steps of Futuristic Planning
2.1 Scenario Planning Approach
2.2 Scenario Planning Approach in Education
2.3 Companies Using Scenario Planning
The presentation of the content will be succeeded by a post activity where I would be asking process
questions to encourage you to react or share something about the discussion. It will be followed with a
personal reflection on the topic… perhaps you could also share later on your own reflections. The report
ends with a presentation of sources utilized.
(SLIDE #5)
Alright, to kick start my presentation, at this point let’s have a brainstorming activity in an app called
mentimeter. Please open a browser on your devices and go to menti.com. We have 3 questions in this
activity. To answer, all you have to do is enter the code which I will send in the chatbox or which you can
see on your screens. Those who are using smart phones now may maximize the chat box for the
responses. Let’s start. The three questions will give you an overview idea of what is futuristic planning
and how it’s done. Type your first name before writing your answer.
INTRODUCTION:
First Question, MENTIMETER: What are the trends or changes you see around us today? (Read the
responses, elaborate, and encourage classmates to explain their answer.)
Second Question, MENTIMETER: Picture out the future of education in your mind. With the occurrence
of these changes or trends you mentioned, what would be the potential situations of education in the
future? (Read the responses, elaborate, and encourage classmates to explain their answer.)
Third Question, MENTIMETER: As educators and educational leaders, what do we do about these
potential situations of education in the future? (Read the responses, elaborate, and encourage
classmates to explain their answer.)
In our mentimeter activity what did we do dear teachers?
-We described the present trends and changes. We did a CHECK ON THE PRESENT SITUATION.
-We MADE ASSUMPTIONS OF THE FUTURE BASED ON THE IMPLICATIONS OF THE PRESENT SITUATION
..the operating environment in the future based on the trends and changes.
-And we THOUGHT OF WAYS to deal with the future operating environment or future world in
education.
Nakapag isip tayo ng ways or actions na pwedeng gawin bago mangyari yung mga assumptions natin for
the future dahil lumikha tayo ng _____________ sa ating isipan.
I’m looking for a word that starts with S and ends with O. It will encapsulate what we just did. Tinignan
natin ang sitwasyon ngayon, tinignan natin ang possibleng sitwasyon sa hinaharap, at nagisip ng mga
hakbang upang harapin ang posibleng sitwasyon sa hinaharap. We formulated lines of action by looking
into…… SCENARIOS! The term scenario plays a major role in futuristic planning.
(SLIDE #6)
DEFINITION:
Futuristic planning means looking ahead and writing out future lines of action to be followed. It is a
preparatory step.
(SLIDE #7)
In futuristic planning in education, the term scenario is emphasized. It is a statement of assumptions
about the operating environment of the system to be studied.
(SLIDE #8)
It is a brief description of the future situations which could arise by the continuing interaction of a
number of socio-economic, political & other trends which can be identified currently. So there, some of
the factors here to look into are social, economic, political and other trends which we will specify later
on.
The related word to futuristic planning is futurism coined by Italian poet Filippo Tommaso Marinetti
which is an Italian Art Movement in the early 20th century. This movement aimed to capture in art the
dynamism and energy of the modern world.
(SLIDE #9)
Now, a while back, we emphasized the term scenario. This is because the approach used in futuristic
planning is called SCENARIO PLANNING which is attributed to Herman Kahn, founder of the Hudson
Institute and one of the preeminent futurists of the latter part of the twentieth century. He became
known for analyzing the likely consequences of nuclear war and recommending ways to improve
survivability.
(SLIDE #10)
Scenario planning in education is making assumptions on what the future is going to be in and for the
school and how your school environment will change overtime in light of that future.
More precisely, Scenario planning is identifying a specific set of uncertainties, different “realities” of
what might happen in the future of your school. Building this set of assumptions can help guide your
school in the long term.
(SLIDE #11)
In other sectors….
For example, Farmers use scenarios to predict whether the harvest will be good or bad, depending on
the weather. It helps them forecast their sales but also their future investments.
Military institutions use scenario planning in their operations to cope with any unlikely situations,
anticipating the consequences of every event. In this case, scenario planning can mean the difference
between life and death.
By allowing educators and educational leaders to anticipate possible future influences on education,
scenario planning can help them become more resilient in the face of change… more proactive than
reactive to future situations.
(SLIDE #12)
Before going into the process of futuristic planning, I would like us to think that SOMETHING WE DO
NOT EXPECT IS GOING TO HAPPEN SOON.. AND WE DO NOT KNOW WHAT IS IT. This is where scenario
planning works… in the uncertain…THE BEST EXAMPLE HERE IS THE TRANSITION TO DISTANCE
LEARNING DUE TO THE PANDEMIC. Biglang nangyari sa atin ang covid. We are all caught off guard and it
forced schools to be reactive because there were no plans prepared ahead. Kung tutuusin, a pandemic is
not new to history. There’s the Spanish flu between 1918-1920. And in the recent past, there is
HIV/AIDS pandemic from 1981-present.
(SLIDE #13)
So to recap so far… Why do we need to do scenario planning? Simply, for us to be aligned and prepared
of what could happen/potentials. So that rather than just being reactive to situations, we have an
advanced plan to a possible situation… to be more comfortable with uncertainties.
(SLIDE #14)
HOW FUTURISTIC PLANNING IS DONE: SCENARIO PLANNING PROCESS:
Like we learned in the previous slides, Scenario planning is a strategic process of exploring uncertainty.
To do scenario planning, there are four steps involved.
Step 1: Identify Driving Forces
Step 2: Identify Your Critical Uncertainties
Step 3: Develop Plausible Scenarios
Step 4. Discuss Implication of Paths
Let us discuss them one by one now,
(SLIDE #15)
Step 1: Identify Driving Forces/Brainstorm (What are the trends that could impact the
school?) All of these things are in the realm of possibility in the future.
To kick off the scenario planning process, identify the driving forces that could have an effect on your
school. To do that, we'll be using a PESTLE analysis.
(SLIDE #16)
It is an environmental scan. It is looking inside and outside of the school to see what factors and what
trends are happening so that we know how to position the school ahead of those trends to be
successful. It’s basically looking at the weather, the trends of the present and future so we can put the
school ahead of those trends instead of being reactive. The purpose of this analysis is to extract as much
as we can from the world around us that could impact your school in any way.
Also, keep in mind that these don't necessarily have to be negative events. Although we tend to focus
on what will impact us in the worst way, it's worth considering some of the more positive factors that
could still make a big impact to the school.
(SLIDE #17)
PESTLE stands for Political, Economic, Social, Technological, Legal, and Environmental. Each of these
have trends. These are the different areas teachers and educational leaders will brainstorm about to
identify possible forces that could affect the school in the future.
Pwedeng gawin ito through focus group discussions. Hatiin ang educational leaders and select educators
and school staff and then each is assigned to an area. There will be a moderator of the discussion and a
secretary to take down the minutes of the meeting. Guide questions will be prepared for the discussion.
Let's get started. Let’s try…
The areas are,
Political
Economics
Social
Technological
Legal and
Environmental
Starting off with Political.
(SLIDE #18)
The guide question here is WHAT TRENDS OR CHANGES DO YOU SEE IN THE POLITICAL ENVIRONMENT
IN SHORT, MEDIUM, AND LONG TERM? Ito yung mga trends that could possibly affect funding in your
school.
Dito you can group teachers coming from the languages and social science areas. You may also invite a
representative from a local government.
The political section of this analysis examines anything that your government (DEPED, TCPEIA, TAPSA)
local, municipal, regional, or national, could do to impact your organization.
IN THE CHATBOX OR OVER THE MICROPHONE: What are the other trends or changes do you see in the
politics?
(SLIDE #19)
Here are some examples:

New policies on education (transition to modular and online learning)

mounting 'red tape' in the local government/corruption

a shift in priority (vaccination)

change in funding/ subsidies are abolished

a new leader is elected

national election is approaching

Stay at home lockdowns are implemented

Increase in political discussions on healthcare
Next, Economic.
(SLIDE #20)
The guide question here is WHAT IS HAPPENING WITH CONSUMER PREFERENCES AND HOW IT WILL
AFFECT YOUR SCHOOL? The answers here may impact mental state of teachers and students, may
impact finances of parents and the school.
Here you can put together the Administration Staff, HUMMS and ABM teachers and Math Teachers.
These economic factors include anything that affects you or your students financially.
IN THE CHATBOX OR OVER THE MICROPHONE: What are the other trends or changes do you see in the
economics aspect?
(SLIDE #21)
Here are some examples:

the price of school equipments or materials/inflation rate

retrenchment of school staff

the unemployment level in your city rises

income of the parents of your student decreases due to lockdown

the exchange rate between your country and another you rely on fluctuates dramatically

budget cut for DEPED

People losing jobs

Baby boomers dying and retiring
Social.
(SLIDE #22)
The guide question here is WHAT CHANGES AND TRENDS ARE HAPPENING IN THE SOCIETY YOU SEE
THAT’S GOING TO AFFECT YOUR SCHOOL? IN SHORT, MEDIUM, AND LONG TERM? Here, people, human
and behavior are analyzed.
The group may consists of Student Affairs Team and Guidance Office Team.
The social section of this analysis is otherwise knows as 'Societal', and identifies any social, demographic
or cultural issue or event that could impact your school.
IN THE CHATBOX OR OVER THE MICROPHONE: What are the other trends or changes do you see in the
society?
(SLIDE #23)
Here are some good examples:

the population in your target market is not allowed to go out due to health protocols

people are shifting/enrolling to public school system

because of the pandemic, social pressure causes people to stay inside

social media influencers are heavily influencing buying choices

People are eating healthier

Remote learning is going to increase

Students and teachers will experience burnout

concerns on graduation
Technological:
(SLIDE #24)
The guide questions here are WHAT TRENDS OR CHANGES IN THE FUTURE DO YOU FORESEE IN
REGARDS TO TECHNOLOGY? WHAT CHANGES IN TECHNOLOGY MAY MEAN TO YOUR SCHOOL AND
YOUR TEACHERS, STUDENTS AND OTHER STAKEHOLDERS?
ICT Staff, Computer Teachers, and TLE Teachers may be assigned in this group.
These forces include anything related to technology and the internet that is having an influence on your
school.
IN THE CHATBOX OR OVER THE MICROPHONE: What are the other trends or changes do you see in
technology?
(SLIDE #25)
Here are some examples:

thanks to video chatting tech, people are enabled to work from home full time

automation in education is increasing

the increased threat of ransomware and cyberattacks

explosion of online learning

internet connectivity is making progress

technology is getting cheaper

virtual reality technology is thriving

people are moving to the use of technology to simplify tasks

increase in demand for online service and programs

increase in screen time

increase in fake news

decrease in jobs due to automation
Legal.
(SLIDE #26)
The guide question here is WHAT CHANGES IN LAWS COULD AFFECT YOUR SCHOOL? IN SHORT,
MEDIUM AND LONG TERM? LAWS OR BILLS THAT CREATE OPPORTUNITIES OR CHALLENGES?
Human Resource Development Staff, School Lawyer, and Principal may be grouped here.
The legal factors of this analysis explore both external and internal laws, regulations, safety standards
and policies that could affect the population or your school.
IN THE CHATBOX OR OVER THE MICROPHONE: What are the other trends or changes do you see in the
laws of the country?
(SLIDE #27)
Here are some good examples:

the government mandates strict business hours to slow the spread of COVID-19

there is a COVID-19 outbreak at one of your facilities

new employment laws require you to pay your employees more

increase in privacy laws
And finally, Environmental.
(SLIDE #28)
The guide question here is WHAT CHANGES ARE HAPPENING IN THE PHYSICAL ENVIROMENT THAT’S
GOING TO AFFECT YOUR SCHOOL? IN SHORT, MEDIUM, AND LONG TERM?
Science Teachers, STEM Teachers, and the Green Team may be grouped here.
The environmental factors identify anything that's happening to your surrounding environment,
geography or climate. This could be happening on a global scale or just locally.
IN THE CHATBOX OR OVER THE MICROPHONE: What are the other trends or changes do you see in our
environment?
(SLIDE #29)
Here are some examples:

a major weather event occurs, which devastates part of your area

heavy pollution in the air or water

people are springing for renewable, recyclable or efficient products

covid is increasing

the global average temperature increases (may change the start of the school year)
Do we have questions about Step 1? Now let us proceed to the next step.
(SLIDE #30)
Step 2: Identify Your Critical Uncertainties (Out of the trends, what are the two biggest critical
uncertainties that may impact the school?)
Can be given as a task to the management team and one representative from each area during the focus
group discussions.
Now that you've identified all of the driving factors that could impact your organization, it's time to pick
out two that could have the greatest impact - these do not have to be similar. In fact, it’s beneficial if
they’re very different.
Although there are an unlimited number of possible scenarios, we recommend working with one pair
first.
Choosing just two can be tricky. If you've done step 1 thoroughly enough, you should have dozens of
driving factors to choose from. Keep in mind you can always repeat the process to end up with a variety
of scenarios.
To make it easier, consider both the factors that will cause the largest impact on your school, and the
factors that are the most likely to occur in the time frame you've agreed upon.
WHICH TWO SCENARIOS COULD CAUSE THE BIGGEST IMPACT IN YOUR SCHOOL?
Let's try an example.
(SLIDE #31)
For this example, we'll look at a time frame of just one year. The critical uncertainties that we'll choose
are:


Student burnout
Vaccination
The team then proceeds to Step 3.
(SLIDE #32)
Step 3: Develop Plausible Scenarios (If the two critical uncertainties happen, then what? )
Gather data to clarify the unknown or uncertain.
For the 3rd step, we will be developing probable scenarios based off of the two critical uncertainties
we've chosen. In this example, our critical uncertainties are: student burnout and vaccination.
(SLIDE #33)
The way we'll develop these scenarios is by plotting them on a simple graph with an x-axis and y-axis.
We'll choose one of our critical uncertainties, and plot both extremes on either side of the x-axis. We'll
then do the same for our other critical uncertainty on the y-axis. See the example below:
High Student Burnout
Y
High Vaccination Rate X
X Low Vaccination Rate
Y
Low Student Burnout
(SLIDE #34)
After you've plotted your uncertainties on the graph, it's time to describe each of the four scenarios
(quadrants). As a team, you'll want to describe these scenarios in detail and in present tense, as if you've
travelled through time. You've seen the future, and you'll be able to describe it in depth. Be sure to
include what life is like at the office, at home, in your school environment if these extremes happen.
Dito pwede nyong sabihin na after making a survey, 90% of your student experience burnout from
online learning. Or going through the news, you will be able to project that by 2022, 80% of the
population are already vaccinated.
When you actually see that there are extremes towards this, then you know that life or reality happens
somewhere between these extremes. So hindi lang apat ang scenarios dito.
In the range of possibilities, there will be worlds like, for example, there is high vaccination rate and high
student burnout or low vaccination rate and high student burnout, or low vaccination rate and low
student burnout. Etc. Those are the potential worlds. And for this step, the team will describe the
potential worlds.
(SLIDE #35)
Step 4: Discuss Implications of Paths (What are the implications of the critical uncertainties)
In the fourth and final step of the scenario planning process, you'll gather the same team members and
discuss the implications or impact of each scenario to the school. See the following graph:
High student burnout
1
Y
2
High Vaccination rate X
X Low Vaccination rate
3
4
Y
Low student burnout
Kanina sa step 3, tinignan natin ang extremes at dinescribe natin ang mga possible scenarios. In this
step, we will look into the implication of each scenario.
Kanina sa step 3, we described the potential worlds. In this step, you want to actually expand those
worlds to say ok if there’s high vaccination rate and high student burnout, what is it for us? And what
are we gonna do about it? If there is high vaccination rate and low student burnout, do we go back to
face to face classes and remove blended learning? If it’s low vaccination rate and high burnout, do we
change our curriculum? This is looking on the possibilities on what you could do or what actually you’re
going to do. By creating alternate scenarios, it gives you greater confidence in knowing what to do.
(SLIDE #36)
Once you've discussed the implications of each scenario, take a vote from everyone in the room, asking
where they think the school is currently, asking 'Which quadrant are we in?'
When you've agreed upon where the organization is as a team, draw a line in the direction you think
your reality will move towards over your agreed upon time frame (we used one year in the example).
Then, discuss what your organization can do to prepare for that reality. See the graph for an example:
(SLIDE #37)
High Student Burnout
Y
High Vaccination Rate X
X Low Vaccination Rate
Y
Low Student Burnout
(SLIDE #38)
Scenario planning will be extremely useful during the strategic planning process. When developing a
strategic plan for your school with your team, you'll want to factor in some of these scenarios. You may
even want to do the scenario planning process several times with different critical uncertainties to be
sure you're prepared for a range of scenarios.
In the strategic planning process, this scenario planning should be taken into consideration when
developing your vision, mission and goals. Even your action plan and operations could be affected.
(SLIDE #39)
It is recommended to view the scenario planning exercise as an ongoing process. As new information
arises, coming back to the scenarios will help your team to respond and tweak you approaches. Habang
may dumarating na mga bagong impormasyon, or events unfolding, pwedeng ulit ulitin ang process ng
scenario planning, para nauupdate or narerevise ang lines of action for the future.
SCENARIO PLANNING IN OTHER COMPANIES/ORGANIZATIONS
Now let’s look into two companies/organizations using scenario planning.
(SLIDE #40)
SHELL
For 45 years and counting, shell has been doing scenario planning. Shell has been developing possible
visions of the future since the 1970s, helping generations of Shell leaders explore ways forward and
make better decisions. Shell Scenarios ask “what if?” questions encouraging leaders to consider events
that may only be remote possibilities, and stretch their thinking. Their scenarios also help governments,
academia and business in understanding possibilities and uncertainties ahead. Tinitignan nila ang mga
environmental factors that may cause effect on petroleum supply. They are also looking into a future
where alternative sources of energy are the trends. Currently, shell is forward thinking on the effects of
covid 19 to consumer behavior and values and the effect of the pandemic to societal capabilities such as
public health.
MILWAUKEE AREA TECHNICAL COLLEGE
When it comes to education, many higher education institutions do scenario planning. One of them is
Milwaukee Area Technical College in the state of Wisconsin in the United States. Some of the scenarios
they are looking into are…
Do we have questions dear teachers before we proceed to the post activity?
(SLIDE #41)
POST ACTIVITY
Process Questions:
1. With the external factors you see today, do you see your school doing futuristic planning? How?
2. What problems could we encounter while doing the process of scenario planning? How can we
address these problems?
-Scheduling
-Work load of teachers
-Abrupt change of events
3. What is your take away from the presentation?
(SLIDE #42)
PERSONAL REFLECTION
“SOMETHING WE DO NOT EXPECT IS GOING TO HAPPEN SOON..AND WE DO NOT KNOW WHAT IS IT.”
This is the statement that has stricken me the most while I was preparing this report. It speaks very much
of the reality that the world is fast changing, some eventual and some abrupt. And sometimes these
changes or events are completely alien to us and we’re left with no choice but to be more reactive, we
resolve them as they happen. These changes catch us off guard and unprepared. That is why I am grateful
to have known about futuristic planning and scenario planning as its approach. By understanding and
applying the process in our respective schools, we prepare and equip ourselves for future worlds in
education. It also allows us to dig deeper to the now, the trends and changes in the present. And by looking
profounder into the events of today, we get that sense of clarity on how we would do things in the future.
Forward-thinking is that one word I could use to represent the essence of this report. And to do that, one
must observe, assume, create scenarios, dig deeper in these scenarios, and lay down lines of actions so
that by the time the assumptions made in the past happen, we have a clear set of guidelines and steps to
take. This way, we become more proactive than reactive.
(SLIDE #43)
BIBLIOGRAPHY AND RELATED ARTICLES
https://www.smestrategy.net/blog/the-4-step-scenario-planning-process-with-examples
https://prezi.com/zbdcppm3qvan/futuristicplanning/?frame=50e2d96ef1bb60e9dab8e7d03cf2bae402c67bb8
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JN2-1cDzzpQ
https://www.edelements.com/blog/scenario-planning-to-develop-a-responsive-school-return-plan
https://www.projectevident.org/updates/2020/7/17/scenario-planning-for-education
https://www.professionalacademy.com/blogs/a-step-by-step-guide-to-scenario-planning/
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mY5fqprl1rA
(SLIDE #44)
https://www.smestrategy.net/blog/what-is-scenario-planning-and-how-to-use-it
https://www.smestrategy.net/blog/what-is-scenario-planning-and-how-to-use-it
https://www.shell.com/energy-and-innovation/the-energy-future/scenarios.html
https://files.eric.ed.gov/fulltext/ED407023.pdf
file:///C:/Users/mabca/Downloads/Dean_ScenarioPlanning_Nov_2019.pdf
Rieley, James (1997, February). Scenario Planning in
Higher Education. Speeches/Meeting Papers
Dean, Marco (2019, November 27). Scenario Planning:
A Literature Review. University College London
Nezortado, Grace (2013, April 8). Futuristic Planning.
Our Happy School
(SLIDE #45)
Do we have questions? Clarifications?
(SLIDE #46)
Alright, I hope you picked up something from the presentation. Thank you for listening!
Let’s end with a prayer.